North Central U.S. Climate and Drought Outlook 16 December 2021 - Justin Glisan, Ph.D. State Climatologist of Iowa Iowa Department of Agriculture ...
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North Central U.S. Climate and
Drought Outlook
16 December 2021
Justin Glisan, Ph.D.
State Climatologist of Iowa
Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship
Justin.Glisan@IowaAgriculture.gov
(515)-281-8981
@JustinMGlisan
General Information
• Providing climate services to the Central Region
• Collaboration Activity Between:
• State Climatologists/American Association of State Climatologists
• NOAA NCEI/NWS/OAR/NIDIS
• USDA Climate Hubs
• Midwest and High Plains Regional Climate Centers
• National Drought Mitigation Center
• Next Regular Climate/Drought Outlook Webinar
• January (1 PM CST): Presenter: Dr. Jeff Andresen, State Climatologist of Michigan
• Access to Future Climate Webinars and Information
• http://www.drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-webinars
• Recordings of Past Webinars
• https://mrcc.purdue.edu/multimedia/webinars.jsp
• http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/webinars.php
• Open for questions at the end
Presentation Outline
• Recent Conditions
• Temperature and precipitation ranks
• 30-day temperature and precipitation
• Drought
• Growing Season Progress
• Snow, Fire, Rivers and Lakes
• Impacts and Notable Events
• Anomalous, off the charts, bizarre weather
• Outlooks
• La Niña
• Short-term
• Winter season
Recent Conditions
November Temperature and Precipitation Ranks
YTD Temperature and Precipitation Ranks
Departure from Normal Temperature and Precipitation
Soil Moisture, Streamflow and Drought
November Temperature Ranks http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/
Year-To-Date Temperature Ranks http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/
November Precipitation Ranks http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/
Year-To-Date Precipitation Ranks http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps/
https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps
https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/basicLooper.pl?category=lis_CONUS&initialize=first®ex=vsm0-200percent_20201118
Figure Credit: Brad Rippey – USDA OCE/USDA NASS Data
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx
Growing Season Progress
USDA NASS Reporting period has ended, though still harvest ongoing last week in OH and MI
Figure Credit: Brad Rippey – USDA OCE/USDA NASS DataFigure Credit: Brad Rippey – USDA OCE/USDA NASS Data
Figure Credit: Brad Rippey – USDA OCE/USDA NASS Data
Minnesota/North Dakota Sugar Beets
Snow, Fire, Rivers and Lakes
Photo credit: Karen Nicolashttps://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpre
f/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_sw
epctnormal_update.pdf• Significant potential
across parts of
Montana
• Most of the area
within red ellipse
has large
precipitation
deficits as reflected
in D3-D4 conditions
https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htmMissouri River
Missouri Mainstem Reservoir
Status (as of 12/16/21):
• System storage is below 50.0
million-acre feet and running below
2012
• 5.0 million-acre feet off the 1969-
2020 average
• The Gavins Point release is currently
12,000 cfs.
• 10th lowest runoff year on record (1898)
http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/pdfs/weeklyupdate_previous.pdf28-day Average Streamflow http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d
Great Lakes Water Levels
• All Great Lakes running near
their long-term averages
• They have dropped from higher
levels over the last several years
• Forecasted levels over the next
six months should remain near
the long-term average
https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/wlevels/data/superiorLevelsFeet.pngImpacts and Notable Events
State Impacts
• Snow pack had been rapidly
decreasing in CO until a recent event at
brought totals to near-normal
• Large wildfires across portions of
Montana
• Wild and unprecedented severe
weather outbreaks across
MO/IL/AR/KY and IA/WI/MN
Photo Credit: AccuweatherState Impacts
• A rare dust storm known as a “haboob”
impacted Denver on Dec. 5th.
• Greatly diminished sunlight for good period of time
along with high winds
• At this point, Denver had yet to see its first snowfall State Climatology Office
of the season
• Broke the record length of 233 consecutive • Heavy snow event across
days with no snow. southern MN on Dec. 10-
• Dust storm in eastern CO yesterday 11
The Denver Post • Up to 21” fell in the SW
corner
• I-35 shut down multiple
times
• A late-season wildfire in central Montana • Over 300 car wrecks
incinerated much of the small farming town
of Denton in early December. • Snowfall rates
• The fire, fueled by high winds and unfettered by approaching 2”/hour
any snow, consumed vegetation desiccated by
exceptional drought, melted rail cars
• Destroyed more than two dozen homes and four
grain elevators that had stood for more than a
century NBC MontanaStation Extremes: • Hettinger, ND broke a daily hig- temperature record of 71°F on Dec. 1, which is also the state record for a December day. The previous record was 70°F that was broken on December 20, 1894 in Napoleon, ND. • Several stations in Iowa broke December’s record high of 74 degrees on Dec. • Many stations throughout the Midwest broke daily highs and lows as well as dewpoint records on the Photo: National Park Service 15th
Severe Weather
Bryon Houlgrave, The Des Moines Register• A historic long-track tornado entered western Kentucky from Tennessee shortly before 9:00 pm • Path length estimate at 190 miles at EF-4 • The tornado continued northeast through Mayfield, KY about 9:25 to 9:30 PM CST, where it produced widespread destruction. • More than 80 feared dead with many unaccounted
MO-IL Tornadoes
• Worst of the tornadoes was an
EF-3 that set down in the St.
Louis Metro East and seriously
damaged an Amazon warehouse
in Edwardsville.
• So far there have been 6
confirmed fatalities and several
injuries.
• This event was the first in 4
years with a tornado-related
death in Illinois.15 December Event
• First Moderate Risk area in the IA/MN/WI
region during the month of December in SPC
history.
• Widespread damage from severe
thunderstorms with wind gusts exceeding 70
mph
• Multiple reports of 80 MPH winds with
thunderstorms
• Multiple reports of 70+ MPH with non-
thunderstorm winds
• At least 5 tornadoes in Iowa; surveys may
reveal more
• 1 fatality with blown over semi-truckDecember 16, 2021
Summary of 12/15/2021 Severe Weather 6:58 AM
Historical Context
● Prior to 12/15/2021, only 5 confirmed ● Dating back to 1990, this was the 1st
tornadoes in the month of December in Iowa Moderate Risk issued by NWS SPC for Iowa
- 1 in 1975 in the month of December
- 1 in 1982
- 2 in 2015 ● High Wind Warnings for non-thunderstorm
- 1 in 2017 winds are not issued frequently in Iowa,
sometimes less than 3 times per year!
● Dating back to 2004, the 55+ reports of
Significant Wind Gusts 75+ MPH is the most
ever for the lower 48 United States,
surpassing the 2020 Derecho of 53 reports
● Iowa’s Warmest December Temperature
Record Broken Yesterday
- Previous: 74°F in Thurman, IA 12/06/1939
- Yesterday: 75°F in Ottumwa, IA (not all
reports are in yet)
National Weather Service
Des Moines, Iowa• The first Extremely Critical Fire Weather Outlook for the Southern and Central Plains during December in SPC history. • Dangerous, life-threatening fire weather conditions are likely with fast moving and uncontrollable fire spread due to extreme winds and dry conditions.
https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1471531145816952832/photo/1
• La Niña
• 7-day Precipitation Forecast
• U.S. Hazard Outlooks
•
Climate •
8 – 14 day Outlook
December temperature and
Outlooks precipitation
• JFM temperature and precipitation
• MAM temperature and precipitationLa Niña Advisory
• In October, the tropical Pacific and
atmosphere both indicated a
strengthening La Niña
• Moderate phase forecasted at 59%
• Second La Niña in two years, known as
a Double-Dip La Niña
• La Niña is likely to continue across the
Northern Hemisphere 2021-22 winter
• ~95% chance during January-
March and into spring 2022
• ~60% chance of transitions to
ENSO- neutral during Spring 2022
•
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-2020-la-ni%C3%B1a-update-just-us-chickens7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Valid: 16 Dec. – 23 Dec.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml8-14 Day Outlook
Temperature Precipitation
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png
January Outlooks
Temperature Precipitation
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/JFM 2022 Outlooks https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/
MAM 2022 Outlooks https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/
Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png
Outlook Summary
• Short-term outlooks showing colder and wetter north to warmer and
drier south
• Classic La Niña signal showing in updated monthly and seasonal
outlooks
• High probability of a weak to moderate La Niña
• We shouldn’t expect major changes in the maps moving forward
• Analog years show high variability in temperature and precipitation
• Some of the biggest signals from La Niña will be late winter and early spring,
especially across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes – wet.Further Information - Partners
• Today’s and Past Recorded Presentations:
https://mrcc.purdue.edu/multimedia/webinars.jsp
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu
• NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov
Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
• Climate Portal: www.climate.gov
• U.S. Drought Portal: www.drought.gov
• National Drought Mitigation Center: http://drought.unl.edu
• State climatologists
• http://www.stateclimate.org
• Regional climate centers
• https://mrcc.purdue.edu
• http://www.hprcc.unl.eduThank You and Questions?
• Questions:
• Climate:
• Justin Glisan: justin.glisan@iowaagriculture.gov , 515-281-8981
• Dennis Todey: dennis.todey@usda.gov , 515-294-2013
• Doug Kluck: doug.kluck@noaa.gov, 816-994-3008
• Melissa Widhalm: mwidhalm@purdue.edu ; 765-494-8191
• Brian Fuchs: bfuchs2@unl.edu 402-472-6775
• Weather:
• crhroc@noaa.govYou can also read
