Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report

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Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report
Northamptonshire COVID-19
               Weekly Surveillance Report
• National lockdown restrictions continue until Monday 29th March
• A total of 578 Northamptonshire residents have tested positive for COVID-19 in the last week, 4% more than the previous
  week (and continues to rise)
• Mixing between households continues to be the greatest cause of transmission locally
• The age group with the most positive tests in the last week was 30 to 39 year olds for both men and women
• Due to the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination in the elderly and most vulnerable people, the number of deaths has reduced
  in recent weeks

                                             Data up to 14 March 2021
Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report
Four Step Roadmap: Four Tests along the Way
                                                               Step 1                Step 1               Step 2                  Step 3                         Step 4
On Monday 8th March residents of Northamptonshire               8-29                Changes             Not before          Not before 17 May                  Not before
and across England took the first stage of step one on         March              on 29 March            12 April            *Review of social                  21 June
the four-step ‘roadmap’ out of lockdown.                                                                                        distancing
National lockdown restrictions continue in place until   Children back to      Rule of 6 or 2        Opening of non-     Most legal restrictions on    Government hopes to be
Monday 29th March and we must all remain vigilant.       School/College        households meet       essential retail    meeting others outdoors       in a position to remove all
                                                                               outdoors                                  will be lifted, although      legal limits on social
                                                                                                                         gatherings of over 30         contact
                                                                                                                         people will remain illegal.
Only when the government is sure that it is safe to                                                                      Indoors, the ‘Rule of 6’ or
move from one step to the next will the final                                                                            2 households will apply
decision be made. The decision will be based on four
tests:                                                   Outdoor               Outdoor activity      Funerals up to 30   Most businesses in all        Government hopes to
• The vaccine deployment programme continues             recreation/exercise   facilities open and   mourners.           but the highest risk          reopen remaining
    successfully                                         with one person       formally organised    Weddings,           sectors will be able to       premises, including
• Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective     outside your          outdoor sports        receptions and      reopen                        nightclubs, and ease the
                                                         household                                   commemorative                                     restrictions on large
    in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those                                                 events 15                                         events and performances
    vaccinated                                                                                                                                         that apply in Step 3
• Infection rates do not risk a surge in
                                                         Care home             End of ‘stay at       Hospitality         Up to 30 people will be
    hospitalisations which would put unsustainable       residents – one       home’ rule but        venues serve        able to attend weddings,
    pressure on the NHS                                  regular visitor       work from home if     people outdoors     receptions and wakes, as
• Assessment of the risks is not fundamentally                                 can and no holidays                       well as funerals
    changed by new Variants of Concern

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Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report
Step 1: Monday March 8 – 29th 2021

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Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report
Everything We Do Is Stopping The Spread
   Test, Test, Test. If you’ve got COVID-19 symptoms, get tested as soon as possible to find out if you are positive. If you have a high temperature,
    continuous cough or loss of or change in sense of smell or taste, you should immediately self-isolate and book a PCR test. Tests can be booked on the Test
    and Trace app, online at nhs.uk/coronavirus, or by calling 119.

    The following people now have access to FREE regular rapid lateral flow testing: adults who are unable to work from home, secondary school pupils and
    college students, staff of primary and secondary schools, nurseries and colleges, adults in households, childcare and support bubbles of nursery children,
    primary and secondary-age pupils and college students. Pupils in secondary schools and colleges will now get home testing kits from their school or
    college. Adults in their families, meanwhile, can get a COVID-19 test twice each week at a local test site or by collecting a home test kit from a test site.
    For more information, visit the national government website which is regularly updated with local information https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rapid-
    lateral-flow-testing-for-households-and-bubbles-of-school-pupils-and-staff. Remember: a negative test is not a free pass to ignore the guidance.

   Vaccinations are precious – let’s not waste them. If you receive an invite to get you jab then please honour the appointment. You may have read or
    heard in the news that a small number of countries in Europe have paused the roll out of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to reports of blood clots in a small
    number of people vaccinated. I want to reassure you that these pauses are purely precautionary whilst authorities in those countries investigate but
    both the World Health Organisation and the UK medicines regulator (MHRA) have made it clear that they have no concerns given the current available
    evidence. In the UK, more than 11 million people have already received at least one dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine and reports of blood clots so far are
    no greater than the number that we would naturally expect in the vaccinated population.

   Residents of Northamptonshire and across England must continue to ‘Stay at Home, Protect the NHS and Save Lives’ until March 29th. You may only
    leave the house for limited reasons permitted in law and mixing indoors with individuals other than household members or those in your care bubble is
    not permitted. Even when outdoors please leave the 2 metre safe distance and adhere to the mantra : Hands, Face, Space.

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Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report
Keep your Distance
• As the weather continues to improve it’s important to remember to keep
  your distance from others, even when outdoors.

                                  2 Metres

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Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report
Rapid COVID-19 Testing
• Seven COVID-19 Rapid Testing Centres are open in Northamptonshire for key workers who are not showing symptoms of COVID-19. Further sites across the
  county will open over the coming weeks.
• The community based testing sites are at:
     • Danes Camp Leisure Centre, Northampton
     • Lodge Park Sports Centre and Hazelwood Neighbourhood Centre, Corby
     • Brackley Leisure Centre, South Northamptonshire
     • Redwell Leisure Centre, Wellingborough
     • Daventry Leisure Centre, Daventry
     • The University of Northampton, Northampton - restricted to use by students and university staff only from Monday 8th March
• The test is called a Lateral Flow Test and involves a swab of the mouth and nose and provides a result within 30 minutes.
• The aim of testing people who do not have COVID-19 symptoms is to identify those who may be infectious without being aware in order to reduce spread
  of the virus. If positive, the test means you are infectious and must start self-isolating at home immediately and complete 10 days of self-isolation.
• The test does not tell you if you are COVID-free so all COVID-secure measures must be exercised even if you get a negative result. You must continue to
  follow COVID guidelines and remember to wash your hands, wear a face covering indoors and maintain a 2m distance from others.
•       Testing slots must be booked online in advance and priority is given to workers in the following sectors: Health or social care, transportation, education or
        childcare (if not receiving regular rapid tests via the workplace), essential shops, supermarkets or financial services, food production or processing,
        warehousing, packing or distribution, essential public sector services including waste, bin collections, security, construction, utilities or communications
        and agency workers. It is advisable for those people working in these sectors to take up the opportunity to get tested on a weekly basis to help to reduce
        the spread of the virus.
•       Information leaflets at the sites are available in English, Lithuanian and Romanian, Russian and Polish.

    6
Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report
Got Symptoms? Get Tested
    • To find out more information about
      local testing sites visit:
      Northamptonshire COVID-19 Testing
      Update.

    • Tests can be booked online at NHS
      COVID-19 or by calling 119. Home
      testing kits can also be ordered
      subject to availability.

    • It is vital that when you leave the
      house to be tested you must go
      straight to the testing centre and
      return home immediately to self-
      isolate until you get your results.

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Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report
Total and Weekly Summary
    A total of 46,432 positive cases have been identified in Northamptonshire to date. Of this number, 578 were identified
    in the last week, 8th to 14th March 2021.

                                                            This graph shows the total number of people who have tested
                                                            positive for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire each week since 21st
                                                            December 2020.
                                                            Weekly case numbers increased significantly during the course of
                                                            December and into early January, however, cases have declined
                                                            steadily over the last few weeks and the latest weekly case total is
                                                            58% lower than that seen in the week of 8th February 2021.

                                                            However, this week’s case total represents a slight increase of 4%
                                                            when compared to the previous week. Although a small increase
                                                            in the week of the report, numbers in recent days have started to
                                                            climb more steeply.
                                                            The latest week’s figures are likely to increase further as data for
                                                            the most recent days are subject to reporting delays.

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Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report
Rates of Cases by District and Borough
                                                                                                              The data in this table shows us what the total and
                                                                                                              most recent week’s positive COVID-19 case numbers
                                       Cumulative         Rate per       Compared to          Compared to     for our districts and boroughs would look like if each
                                         rate per        100,000 5       county rate 5       England rate 5   area had the exact same population size (100,000).
    Area
                                        100,000 to       Mar to 11       Mar to 11 Mar       Mar to 11 Mar
                                       11 Mar 2021       Mar 2021            2021                2021         Northamptonshire’s infection rate per 100,000
    Northamptonshire                      6,136             76.2                -              Sig higher     population for the most recent week up to 11th
                                                                                                              March is 76.2 (an increase of 6% compared to the
    Corby                                 7,267            162.0           Sig higher          Sig higher     previous week), which is significantly higher than
                                                                                                              the national average (58.6).
    Daventry                              4,753             55.8             Similar             Similar
    East Northamptonshire                 4,721             75.1             Similar             Similar      All district and borough infection rates, except for
                                                                                                              South Northamptonshire’s, are significantly higher
    Kettering                             5,639             94.3             Similar           Sig higher
                                                                                                              than or similar to the national average.
    Northampton                           7,760             66.8             Similar             Similar      Wellingborough, Kettering and Corby’s rates are
                                                                                                              significantly higher than the national average.
    South Northamptonshire                4,833             31.7            Sig lower           Sig lower
    Wellingborough                        5,882             77.8             Similar           Sig higher     Corby continues to have one of the highest case
                                                                                                              rates in England, despite decreasing case numbers in
Source: Gov.uk Coronavirus Dashboard                                                                          the last couple of weeks, cases have now started to
                                                  *Please note that the word sig means ‘significant’,
                                                                                                              climb in recent days so people must continue to
                                                  which is a statistical term that simply means that the
                                                                                                              adhere to the rules and try to reduce any risk of
                                                  research is valid.
                                                                                                              transmission.

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Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report
Total Cases by District and Borough
                                                                            This table shows the total number of people who have
                              Total cases   Cases in week 8   Change from   tested positive for COVID-19 up to 14th March 2021 in
     Area                     to 14 Mar     Mar to 14 Mar       previous    each of Northamptonshire’s seven districts and boroughs.
                                 2021            2021            week
                                                                            Although recent progress has been positive and case
     Northamptonshire           46,432           578           Increase     numbers were reducing, Northamptonshire’s total
     Corby                      5,304            136           Increase     weekly case number shows an increase of 4% in the
                                                                            seven days to 14th March.
     Daventry                   4,102             44           Decrease
     East Northamptonshire      4,499             84           Increase     Corby, East Northamptonshire and South
     Kettering                  5,758             70           Decrease     Northamptonshire have also seen an increase in case
                                                                            numbers when compared to the previous week.
     Northampton                17,488           158           Decrease
     South Northamptonshire     4,574             27           Increase     Please note that extreme caution must be applied when
                                                                            viewing week on week changes. To see the overall
     Wellingborough             4,707             59           Decrease     changes in areas in context please see slides 17, 18 and
                                                                            19.

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Percentage changes in recent 7-day case rates
 This chart shows percentage changes in case rates over the last 3 months up to 11th March 2021. Percentage changes are
 calculated by comparing to the previous non-overlapping 7-day period. It shows that Northamptonshire’s case rates
 increased rapidly in December and early January and have since been decreasing following the implementation of
 national lockdown policies. However, Northamptonshire has seen a slight increase in case rates in recent days.

* Data for the last 5 days are not displayed as they will be incomplete.
 Source: Gov.uk Coronavirus Dashboard

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Rate of Weekly Lab Confirmed Cases
                                                                                                     This graph includes all testing data. Recent data
                                                                                                     shows that Northamptonshire’s rate of cases in the
                                                                                                     last seven days remains above the England average,
                                                                                                     however the gap between the Northamptonshire
                                                                                                     and England rates has narrowed recently.
                                                                                                     Corby, East Northamptonshire, Kettering,
                                                                                                     Northampton and Wellingborough currently have
                                                                                                     weekly total rates above the England average.

                                                                                                     All districts and boroughs have seen a rising or
                                                                                                     plateauing trend or increase in case rates in recent
                                                                                                     days.

                                                                                                     Corby’s rate has seen a notable decrease in the last
                                                                                                     couple of weeks, however, in recent days, cases
                                                                                                     have started to rise and Corby now has the highest
                                                                                                     rate in England and the highest rate in the county
 Source: Gov.uk Coronavirus Dashboard.
                                                                                                     by a wide margin. Kettering’s rate is currently the
                                                                                                     second highest in the county.
* These are 7-day rolling total numbers of cases as a rate per 100,000 population – this is done to even out the fluctuations we see in testing volumes on
weekdays vs weekends.
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Recent Cases by Age and Gender
                                                                                           This graph shows the number of positive test results for
                                                                                           COVID-19 in Northamptonshire over the last 28 days by
                                                                                           gender and by ten-year age band.

                                                                                           Overall, more women than men tested positive for COVID-
                                                                                           19 in the last 28 days.

                                                                                           The age group with the most positive tests was 30 to 39
                                                                                           year olds for both men and women. Case numbers are
                                                                                           currently highest amongst working age adults.

                                                                                           Over the last 4-week period there have been steady
                                                                                           decreases in numbers of cases amongst people aged 60+.

*Please refer to the gov.uk coronavirus dashboard heat map for more information on cases in specific age groups.

 13
Deaths Within 28 Days of Positive Test
                                                                                          This table shows total number of deaths of people who had
                                             Total deaths Deaths in week Change from      a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of
      Area                                    to 14 Mar    08 Mar to 14    previous       the first positive test, reported up to 14th March 2021 for
                                                 2021       Mar 2021        week          each of Northamptonshire’s seven districts and boroughs.

      Northamptonshire                         1,370           5          Decrease        Most districts and boroughs have seen a decrease in
                                                                                          numbers of deaths when compared to the previous week,
      Corby                                     121            0         No change        however, Daventry and East Northamptonshire saw an
                                                                                          increase with one death in each district. No deaths have
      Daventry                                  134            1          Increase
                                                                                          been recorded in Corby for the last two weeks.
      East Northamptonshire                     185            1          Increase
                                                                                          Due to the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination in the elderly
      Kettering                                 192            2          Decrease
                                                                                          and most vulnerable people, the number of deaths have
      Northampton                               491            0          Decrease        started to reduce more rapidly in recent weeks.
      South Northamptonshire                    112            0          Decrease
                                                                                          We must continue to work together now more than ever to
      Wellingborough                            135            1          Decrease        reduce numbers of deaths as recent scientific evidence
                                                                                          suggests that new variants of COVID-19 in the UK may be
      Source: Gov.uk Coronavirus Dashboard                                                deadlier than the original virus.

* People who died more than 28 days after their first positive test are not included, whether or not COVID-19 was the cause of death.

 14
Hospital Beds Occupied by Confirmed
COVID-19 Patients              This chart shows the trend in numbers of beds at
                               Northampton and Kettering General Hospitals
                               occupied by COVID-19 patients since 1st August
                               2020.

                               It shows that the number of beds occupied due to
                               COVID-19 remained relatively steady over the late
                               summer through to mid-October, at which point
                               numbers of patients in hospital began to increase
                               sharply.

                               The number of patients in hospital due to COVID-19
                               has been on a decreasing trend since mid-January,
                               although the rate of decline has recently slowed. The
                               latest data shows a total of 81 COVID-19 patients
                               occupied hospital beds in Northamptonshire on
                               16th March 2021.

                               Bed occupancy has now decreased to levels last seen
                               at the beginning of November 2020, however there
                               is still demand for Intensive Care beds.

15
Education Status
                                                                                    This chart shows the trend in 7 day average cases
                                                                                    recorded in education settings in the last 28 days for
                                                                                    both staff and pupils.

                                                                                    It shows that weekly average case volumes were
                                                                                    consistently low in the last week of February and first
                                                                                    week of March and began to rise sharply from 10th
                                                                                    March, particularly amongst pupils.

                                                                                    The table shows the proportion of education settings
                                                                                    having recorded at least one case over a 4 week
                                                                                    period. The proportion of schools with recent cases
                          % of education settings       % of education settings     has decreased since the end of January.
 Date range              recorded at least 1 case in   recorded no cases in the 4
                             the 4 week period               week period
                                                                                    On 18 March 2021 a total of 3 education settings
 18 Feb to 18 Mar 2021              19%                          81%                were closed, which was a decrease compared to the
 11 Feb to 11 Mar 2021              18%                          82%                previous week.

 4 Feb to 4 Mar 2021                21%                          79%
 28 Jan to 25 Feb 2021              28%                          72%

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Cases by Community – Last 28 Days

The chart shows the
local communities
within
Northamptonshire
where COVID-19
infections over the last
28 days are highest.

Knowing the areas with
the highest case
numbers in the last 28
days help us to prioritise
and focus our support
locally.

 17
Case Rates by Community – Last 28 Days per 100,000
 population

  These graphics show
  what positive COVID-
  19 case numbers over
  the last 28 days would
  look like if each local
  community had the
  exact same size
  population (100,000).

  The map illustrates the
  28-day infection rate
  per 100,000
  population across the
  whole county.

* Please note that the numbers shown on this page represent the best possible estimate we can make from a wider range of numbers, because there is always a
margin of error when calculating cases per 100,000 population – particularly where actual case numbers are small.

  18
Change in Case Rates by Community – Fortnightly
  per 100,000 population
                                                 Rank Name
 If each community had the exact same size           1 Queensway (Wboro)
 population (100,000) in Northamptonshire,
 this graphic shows how COVID-19 case                2 Kettering South (Kett)
 numbers in the last 14 days would have              3 Rushden East (EN)
 changed in each community compared to
 the previous 14 days.                               4 Thrapston & Brigstock (EN)
                                                     5 Ringstead, Woodford & Stanwick (EN)
 We have seen decreases in case rates in
                                                     6 Abington Vale (Nton)
 most of our areas in the county.
                                                     7 Geddington, Rushton & Stoke Albany (Kett)
 However, 9 areas with increases in case
                                                     8 New Duston East (Nton)
 rates are listed next to the map.
                                                     9 Harpole, Kislingbury & Bugbrooke (SN)
 Areas with increases in rates of infection
 show us where we need to prioritise and
 focus our support locally.

• Please note that the numbers shown on this page represent the best possible estimate we can make from a wider range of numbers, because there is always a
  margin of error when calculating cases per 100,000 population – particularly where actual case numbers are small.

  19
Summary of Outbreaks 15/03/2021
    Two or more cases linked by place and time to that setting. Totals are 28 day counts for care homes and hospitals, and 14
    day counts for all other locations.

     In the last 28 days      Corby    Daventry East Northants      Kettering   Northampton South Northants Wellingborough County total Case total

     Outbreaks                  1          1             0              1             3                1                  1               8            59
     Care home/service          0          1             0              1             2                1                  1               6            47
     Childcare                  0          0             0              0             0                0                  0               0             0
     Workplace                  0          0             0              0             1                0                  0               1             4
     Education                  1          0             0              0             0                0                  0               1             8
     Hospital/healthcare        0          0             0              0             0                0                  0               0             0
     Other                      0          0             0              0             0                0                  0               0             0

•   Please note that this summary covers all situations classified as ‘active’. An active situation has had at least 1 positive case within the previous 28 days.
•   Outbreaks are pended if there are no new cases reported for Care homes/Health care in 14 days and 7 days for others.
•   Although outbreaks have decreased this week across all Districts and Boroughs except for Corby - it is important to note that the majority of cases are due to
    community household transmission.
    20
COVID-19: Keep Up to Date
•    Watch: Public Health Northamptonshire’s weekly press
     conference live streamed on YouTube with cross county
     partners from the NHS, Police and Education.

•    Listen: To BBC Radio Northampton’s interviews with Director
     of Public Health Lucy Wightman twice weekly: Tuesday live at
     08.10am and a pre-record aired at 5.10pm on Thursdays.

•    Read: Northamptonshire’s Director of Public Health, Lucy
     Wightman’s weekly column in the Northampton Chronicle and
     Echo online and in the newspaper for the very latest insights
     and advice.

•    Study: Our weekly surveillance reports on the NCC website.

•    Look out for: Our advertising campaigns on buses, at bus
     stops, GOMO vans and i-walkers, (digital screens on vans and
     people that share our messages), Geo-locate techniques using
     location messaging on mobile devices and both digital and
     non-digital outdoor advertising boards.

•    Follow us: on Twitter @NorthantsPH and Facebook
     @PublicHealthNorthants.

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Help, Guidance and Fines

 • Government Financial support is now available for eligible individuals who have to
   self-isolate for up to 14 days. Details of financial support can be found here.

 • Northamptonshire County Council has put together a Self-isolation support pack for
   residents.

 • Those who do not follow Test and Trace guidance, or those who breach self-isolation,
   or lockdown legislation will be fined £1,000.

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