OF HAVERING - Elections 2022
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Elections 2022
LONDON
BOROUGH
OF HAVERING
BOROUGH
PROFILE
LONDON BOROUGH SEC NEWGATE IN THE
OF HAVERING LONDON BOROUGH
AT A GLANCE OF HAVERING
With a high proportion of green open space and protected
locations, a fractious political scene and coordinated
Population: Cabinet member for housing:
resident groups, developing in the London Borough of
260,651 (2020) Cllr Joshua Chapman Havering poses significant challenges.
Control: MPs:
No overall control Jon Cruddas MP However, with a good number of brownfield sensitivities and political context have helped
(Conservative minority (Labour, Dagenham and Rainham, since 2001) sites available, the borough presents plentiful clients with hotels in Romford, residential
administration) Andrew Rosindell MP
opportunities to deliver regeneration on former development in Rainham and delivering
industrial land and breathe new life into community benefit in the most challenging of sites
(Conservative, Romford, since 2001) the borough. bordering metropolitan green belt. Whatever
Leader:
the outcome of the May elections, SEC Newgate
Julia Lopez MP
Cllr Damian White (Conservative, Hornchurch
Consultants at SEC Newgate has an established will be able to steer you to success in this
track record of securing planning approvals in challenging borough.
and Upminster, since 2017)
Havering. Our experience of the community
For support in London Borough of Havering, contact
Phil Briscoe Pearce Branigan
Phil.briscoe@secnewgate.co.uk Pearce.branigan@secnewgate.co.uk
+44 (0)7968 80 73 77 +44 (0)7909 56 25 71
2 3
BOROUGH PROFILE The average house price in the borough
LONDON
comes in at £400,000 – a fifth cheaper than
the London average. The predominant house
types are positively abnormal for London
BOROUGH
and are more representative of the rest of
England: semi-detached is the most common
(30 per cent) and terraced second
OF HAVERING
(29 per cent), with there being twice the
London average of detached homes
(7 per cent) and bungalows (9 per cent) in
the borough. Housebuyers therefore find
Havering is an outer London Havering, it could be argued, is more
good value when purchasing in this
borough bordering the county of representative of neighbouring Essex
suburban borough.
Essex, and is the most easterly than it is of Greater London.
borough in London. To the west, Demographically, the overwhelming
The beating heart of the borough is
Havering is bordered by Barking & majority of residents identify as white
Romford, with smaller settlements in places
Dagenham and Redbridge (87 per cent). There are few pockets
such as Rainham to its south by the Thames
boroughs. To the east, the borough of deprivation in the district, with
and Upminster and Hornchurch to the east.
borders Essex authorities of predominantly private housing across
These locations are bounded by significant
Thurrock, Brentwood and the borough and only a small amount
areas of metropolitan green belt which act
Epping Forest. of social housing.
as constraints towards accommodating any
expansion of these garden settlements.
Fortunately for those looking to develop,
the borough has a good number of former
industrial sites and warehouse locations
particularly in the north. To the south, part of
the borough is included within the London
Riverside redevelopment area, part of the
Thames Gateway redevelopment zone.
Seeking to develop in a borough with
affluent leafy suburban settlements that are
staunchly opposed to urban expansion and
hemmed in by metropolitan green belt may
appear a dire prospect. However, with tough
London housing targets to be met,
appropriate regeneration can be welcomed
in Havering.
4 5
The Conservative Group is presently in minority control of the borough, which broadly reflects the
borough’s electoral history. Between its creation in 1964 and 1998, Labour and Conservatives
alternated as the largest party in Havering, usually reflecting the historic general election trends. The main
Gooshays impediment to either of the main two parties securing a majority at the council has been the presence of a
Havering Park determined independent political movement in the borough. This makes Havering unique within London.
RECENT HISTORY from fringe HRA members and Independent
Heaton
There have been only six election cycles out of councillors. This included offering the Mayoralty
Harold Wood 15 where either Labour or Conservatives were in of the Borough to one HRA member, Cllr Brian
Maw
Pettits majority control of the council. Labour has only Eagling, who would become the first councillor
ne
once gained a working majority in the borough in to serve three terms as municipal mayor of the
ys
Squirrel’s
Heath
1971-74, though governed as a minority council borough, and the defection of Cllr Michael Deon
Romford
Town
from 1990-96 and 1997-2002. The Conservatives Burton, who was elected as an Independent but
Emerson
Brooklands
Park have proven more successful in achieving later joined the Conservative Group.
Cranham
majorities, governing as majority council in
Hylands 1968-71; 1978-1986; and 2006-2014. However, Cllr White may face a determined fight from the
St Andrews
they have relied historically on minority encroaching HRA to retain control in 2022. The
government as well, from 1974-77; 2002-06; Conservative’s strategy to-date has been to rely
Hacton Upminster
and most recently since 2014. on the hegemony of the Romford Conservatives,
while achieving less electoral success in the outer
Elm Park
The Labour vote has all but given way since the suburbs. This has been further compounded by a
late 1990s to the rise of localist, often series of controversial land transactions in the
anti-development residents groups, with the borough, including the purchase of Romford M&S
South Independent/Havering Residents Association site by the council in 2019, the development of a
Hornchurch
group (HRA) emerging as the second largest party popular pitch and putt site in Hall Lane, Upminster
after 1994 and even taking on governance of the and the passing of the council’s Local Plan in 2021
Conservative Rainham &
Wennington council briefly from 1997-98. The rise of the HRA which allocates a significant portion of
Labour can be attributed to opposition towards GLA and development to Rainham.
central government interference in the running of
HRA the borough. The main campaign elements include Though he can be credited for leading the
opposition to development and the protection borough, which has a noted elderly population,
Independent
of green space in the borough. The HRA has also through the COVID-19 pandemic, Cllr White’s
largely subsumed other independent movements image has been tarnished by allegations of
by capturing the localist agenda. political gerrymandering of ward boundaries,
POLITICAL OVERVIEW
following the leaking of a recorded conversation
Following the surprise resignation of former in February 2020. Areas where unpopular
council leader of ten years, Michael White, ahead development projects were located were central
London Borough of Havering wards: Current political composition of the 2014 London-wide elections, the to this strategy, with the new boundaries
Conservatives were led by party stalwart, intending to divide anti-Tory vote into multiple
(Pre-May 2022)
Cllr Roger Ramsey, who previously served as wards to minimise its overall impact.
leader from 1984-90. Cllr Ramsey stood down
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
after four years in 2018, to be replaced by the Even if the Conservatives are the largest group
Conservative 14 26 34 33 22 25 current leader, Cllr Damian White, who had served after the election, Cllr White may face a leadership
Labour 29 9 2 5 1 5 as Deputy Leader under Cllr Ramsey. challenge. He has vacated his Squirrel’s Heath
Lib Dem 3 1 1 - - - ward to stand in the newly formed ward of
Havering-Atte-Bower, a safer seat in the north
HRA - 18 16 12 24 22 THE CURRENT OUTLOOK
of the borough. Meanwhile, the former leader of
Independent 17 - - 4 - 2 The 2018 borough elections witnessed a
the neighbouring London Borough of Redbridge,
BNP
determined bid by opposition groups to unseat
- - 1 - - - Keith Prince, the current GLA Assembly Member
the Conservative administration, that was only
UKIP - - - - 7 - for Havering and Redbridge, is contesting Cllr
avoided through intense political negotiation by
White’s Squirrel’s Heath ward in May.
the Conservatives who peeled off key support
6 7
For developments in Romford, building heights and scale
are influenced by their proximity to the station area. Tall
buildings are considered acceptable by some councillors in
THE
the vicinity of the station, though some councillors are
opposed to any tall buildings coming forward at all. In
either case, town centre developments will need to offer a
DEVELOPMENT
strong public realm contribution at ground level to placate
either group. Anything in the Conservation Area and
locations north of the railway line along are considered
unacceptable, with building heights in any locations
CONTEXT
outside of this need to respond to the existing
built environment.
Rainham and Beam Park falls within the London Plans’
‘London Riverside Opportunity Area’, earmarked to deliver
3,000 new homes. The council’s ambition is for the area to
perhaps ironically retain Rainham’s ‘village feel’ as part of a
large residential neighbourhood of terraced and detached
houses. With the rivers of Beam and Ingrebourne
With Havering’s population expected to grow to After a decade of false starts on regenerating buffering the location, sustainability is a key focus,
over 293,000 over the next 15 years, the council the location, in 2015, City Hall identified Barking particularly in relation to flood prevention measures and
is eager to see development occur in a way that and Rainham as having potential for 26,500 new increasing biodiversity in respect of the area and the
supports the borough’s suburban character. The homes and that a new C2C rail station could be adjacent Rainham Marshes.
borough has faced a chronic problem with housing built at Beam Park as part of the ‘London
delivery, falling short on the 2021 Housing Riverside Opportunity Area Planning Framework’. Therefore, development in the borough is very much a
Delivery Test at 46 per cent of homes delivered - The council initially began CPO towards the land ‘tale of two strategic sites’ with developers encouraged to
3,202 short. The result has been an enforced before the GLA took over the project in 2018. favour height and public realm improvements if choosing
“presumption in favour of approval” for However, the Department for Transport’s (DfT) a site around Romford station, while delivering residential
applications in the borough. decision to not fund the project, alongside the tree-lined neighbourhoods across Rainham.
precarious financial position of Transport for London,
To date, because of the large amount of have caused all progress on the site to grind to a
Both Romford and Rainham and
metropolitan green space, listed buildings and halt. With the future station uncertain, the council
Conservation Areas, regeneration has been the withdrew the CPO approved in 2018 and is Beam Park are identified in the
primary means for delivering new homes in the continuing to lobby the DfT to approve the funding. Havering Local Plan as Strategic
borough. This has chiefly occured through
Development Areas, with the
brownfield sites centring around Romford Town
Havering only delivered
Centre and the London Riverside, the largest GLA granting both locations
46% of its housing delivery
development in the Thames Gateway. While the
Housing Zone Status because
former has been seen as a noted success under target over the last
the leadership of Cllr Ramsey for delivering a new of their good transport links.
swimming pool and ice rink, known as the
three years.
Sapphire Ice and Leisure development, the latter
has been more controversial.
8 9
Cllr Joshua Chapman – ONES TO WATCH
Cabinet Member
for Housing KEITH PRINCE AM
Cllr Joshua Chapman has represented the Current GLA Assembly Member for Havering
Conservative stronghold of Romford Town and Redbridge. The former Conservative-leader
since 2014. Seen as a loyalist to the of the London Borough of Redbridge has set his
leadership, housing residents of the borough sights on a return to the town hall in Havering.
ahead of the homeless from other boroughs Although he increased his majority for the GLA
is a priority for Cllr Chapman, who has seat in the 2021 elections, this will remain a key
overseen the purchase of new homes for target for Labour and the risk of losing remains.
sale to address the borough’s social housing Should this happen, a return to the council will
shortage. For any future development position this local political heavyweight for one
coming forward, demonstrating that local of the top jobs.
residents on the council’s housing waiting
list will be prioritised for homes will be well CLLR RAY MORGAN
received by Cllr Chapman and the leadership. A councillor since 2002, Cllr Ray Morgan is the
embodiment of anti-development feeling in
Havering. As Leader of the Residents Group and
Cllr Dilip Patel – Leader of the Opposition has consistently
Chair of the Strategic opposed local and national housebuilding
Planning Committee targets, most recently forming alliances with
KEY FIGURES
Labour MP Jon Cruddas and other councillors to
Cllr Dilip Patel has been a councillor since
oppose central government planning reforms. If
2010. A shopkeeper for over 30 years, he
the HRA prove successful in unseating marginal
Cllr Damian White – Cllr John Crowder –
has been Chairman of the Strategic Planning Labour and Conservative wards, and critically,
Committee since June 2019. His tenure
Cabinet Member for
staying a united force, Cllr Morgan may find
Leader of the Council on the committee ensures he is experienced himself as the Leader of the Council in May.
Cllr Damian White has been a Havering Regeneration in both planning matters and is politically
councillor since 2010. He served as Deputy A councillor since 2014, Cllr John Crowder has astute to the controversial nature of
Leader of the Council from 2014-18 and took first-hand knowledge of development, having built developments. This has included casting
over as Leader of the Council of the following the and operated The Pinewoods public house in the deciding vote against applications in
resignation of Cllr Roger Ramsey in 2018. He has Conservative safe-ward of Havering Park, where Conservative-held wards that would likely
proven an energetic and politically astute he is a councillor. He was appointed as Cabinet precipitate an electoral backlash against the
operator, securing enough fringe support from Member for Regeneration in January 2022, when governing group. If he continues as Chairman
HRA and Independent councillors to retain Cllr Damian White created the role. The stated after the local elections, developers should
control of the council in 2018. He is keen to see brief for this portfolio serves to demonstrate the expect that any application submitted in
the resurrection of the Rainham and Beam Park importance of brownfield-first development to Conservative-held wards will come under
development once an agreement with the DfT voters who are wary of the council carving up the intense scrutiny around elements of design,
can be reached. He will will likely support further green space in the borough. Crucially, his parking and amenity provision, as well as the
development in the south of the borough located portfolio responsibilities mark its delivery of appropriateness of the height and massing in
away from Conservative heartlands that do not fall affordable homes and infrastructure as separate to respect of the local area.
within the immediate boundary of Romford town the delivery of private homes.
centre. Regeneration of brownfield sites is another
key area of focus for Cllr White, evident from its
prioritisation in the Local Plan and the creation of
a new cabinet post in January 2022 to focus on
its delivery.
10 11
PREDICTION
Conversely, the resurgence of Labour locally
may unintentionally aid the Conservatives to
FOR 2022
cling on in places like South Hornchurch and
the newly formed Beam Park. The ‘anything
but the Conservatives’ vote in these areas Gooshays
Havering-Atte-Bower
may be split between the proven
Conservative
UK local elections are often occasions for commodity of the HRA against a more
the populace to vent displeasure with the credible local Labour campaign, especially Labour
governing party. In this case, we can expect Heaton
with resources pouring in from over the
the Conservatives to take a significant HRA
border in safe-Redbridge to bolster local
weathering at the polls locally. campaign efforts. This may allow Harold Independent
Mawneys Marshalls &
Wood
Conservative candidates to win Rise Park
In Havering, the recent boundary changes, “through the middle” in several wards.
allegedly engineered to water-down HRA s
ward
presence and consolidate the Conservative Ultimately, the strength of a clear and St
Ed
position, may not be enough to overcome Squirrels
coherent campaigning message will decide Hylands & Heath
St Alban’s
resident concerns. Havering Conservatives who comes out on top. With uncoordinated Harrown
Cranham
messaging lacked a clear message about the campaigns being mobilised by the local
achievements of four years of Conservative Hylands &
Conservatives and HRA groups, the future Harrow
St Andrew’s
administration in Havering, let alone reasons governance of the council could be Lodge
to return the party for another term. influenced by how hard Labour campaigns
in marginal wards. Possible 2022
Though the Conservatives hope to make political map Hacton Upminster
gains in their stronghold of Romford town Elm Park
due to the area gaining seats via the
boundary changes, their marginal hold on
Colliers Row, Mawney and St Andrews could South
see HRA advances made. Hornchurch
Beam Park
Rainham &
Wennington
WARDS TO WATCH
Beam Park: Conservative gain? OUR OVERALL PREDICTION IS THEREFORE:
Squirrels Heath/Elm Park/St Andrews: Possible HRA gains Conservative: 25
South Hornchurch Independents consolidate HRA: 26
Labour: 3
Independent: 1
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