OptE GP Consulting - Electromobility - End of Hype or Reality ? ABB Robotics - Customer Days in Mainz Peter Gresch - June 19, 2013 - ABB Group ...
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Electromobility – End of Hype or Reality ?
ABB Robotics – Customer Days in Mainz
Peter Gresch – June 19, 2013
OptE GP Consulting
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Agenda OptE GP Consulting
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Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including
Electric Vehicles
Electromobility in Germany including
E-Bikes/-Pedelecs-/Scooters
International Pilot Project in Berlin
Opportunities for Electronics Business in E-Mobility
Outlook E-Mobility 2020
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 2
New (Light) Vehicle Sales Worldwide
1996 -> 2012 OptE GP Consulting
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= 34 Mio.
22.2 Mio. 17.8 Mio.
18.8 Mio. 16.5 Mio. 12.2 Mio.
Calendar Year 2012:
European Sales were „flat to negative“ due to (Southern) European Crisis
Global New Car Sales grew by 4% to Record Production of about 80 Mio. Cars
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 3
Production Passenger Cars and
Light Trucks from 2011-2016 OptE GP Consulting
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• (Comfort) Innovations almost always Go from Luxury to Mid to Small
• Legal or „Mandatory“ Requirements (CO2, Immobilizer, EuroNCAP, ESP, Tire
Pressure Monitoring in US, …) drive faster developments and implementations
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 4
Change in Vehicle Production
Propulsion Systems OptE GP Consulting
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Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 5
Agenda OptE GP Consulting
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Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including
Electric Vehicles
Electromobility in Germany including
E-Bikes/-Pedelecs-/Scooters
International Pilot Project in Berlin
Opportunities for Electronics Business in E-Mobility
Outlook E-Mobility 2020
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 6
E-Vehicles – New Vehicle Registrations
Jan - Jul 2012 / Jan – Nov 2012 OptE GP Consulting
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Opel Ampera – 629
Nissan Leaf – 269
Citroën C-Zero – 256
Peugeot iOn – 200
smart fortwo electric drive – 131
Mercedes A-Klasse E-Cell – 623
Mitsubishi i-MiEV – 47
Tesla Roadster – 44
VW Golf Blue-e-Motion – 32
Total January - July 2012: 2.231
Total Jan – Dec 2011:
Approx. 2000 Battery Electric Vehicles,
2012 = 2-3 times as in 2011
Opel Ampera: Approx 6.000 vehicles sold = Nr. 1 in Europe with Market Share of 22%
Nr. 1 in Netherlands due to high (28g/km CO2) emmision taxes
The German Automotive Industry has announced 14-16 new vehicle launches until end of 2014
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 7
E-Vehicles – Market Germany
Not only 4-Wheelers
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Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 8
Evolution of Powertrains* OptE GP Consulting
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Source: ZVEI Studie
* (Natural) Gas missing Elektromobilität 2012
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 9
Electric Drivetrains - Usage Profiles OptE GP Consulting
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Source: ZVEI
• Micro-Hybrids become „Standard“ to meet CO2 Requirements
• Mild-Hybrids increasing
• Plug-In Hybrids will be the dominating E-Powertrain for the next years due to „Range
Advantage“
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 10E-Mobility - Growing Opportunities for Public
Transportation / China OptE GP Consulting
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Example: DC Charging for Electric Utility Vehicles
Target:
BEV and PHEV (15 kWh)
- 500.000 Cars in 2015
- 2.000.000 Cars in 2020
Busses (200 kWh)
Different technologies - Hybrid > 12.000
e.g. DC (fast) charging - E-Busses > 3.000
for electric utility
vehicles –
implementation for 2012:
China ! • 27.000 EVs
Current up to 400 A
• 200.000.000 E-Pedelecs/Bikes
Voltage up to 750 V
DC
Tolerance 25 Cities -> 12.000 Proto/Test EVs
compensation for
the plug-in process
e.g. Jianghuai 2010-12
With 1.600 E-Cars
Source: Phoenix Contact
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 11Project Estonia: Country wide network “Elmo”
ABB awarded Europe’s largest EV infrastructure project
ABB awarded Europe’s
largest ever EV infrastructure
deployment
Nationwide network: every
main road in Estonia will have
a fast charger approximately
every 50 km
Opened on 20/02/2013
Payment systems
Membership model, RFiD
200 DC + AC combined fast chargers SMS payments
Smartphone payments
507 AC chargers at office locations Automated acces via phone
Turnkey project & network services E-wallet payments
© ABB Group
June 25, 2013 | Slide 12FastNed & ABB to roll out connected DC fast chargers
Country wide network throughout Netherlands
Announcement on 03/06/2013
FastNed & ABB will roll out a network of
Terra DC fast throughout the Netherlands
Fully commercially driven business model
present.
Multiple chargers per site (201 locations)
Network supported by ABB’s remote
management, remote assistance and local
Dutch ABB service team
Cloud based network connections to
FastNed’s Driver Care Center
Connection to Third Party Backoffice via
OCPP
© ABB Group
June 25, 2013 | Slide 13Highway Segment DC - fast charging in 15 – 30
minutes Combo / Multi-standard chargers
Jul Nov Nov Dec
2013 2013 2013 2013
Terra 53 C Terra 53 CT Terra 53 CJ Terra 53 CJG
DC DC + AC DC DC + AC
Highway Highway Highway Highway
Charger Charger Charger Charger
50kW DC CCS 50kW DC CCS 50kW DC CCS 50kW DC CCS
22kW AC 50 kW DC 50 kW DC
CHAdeMO CHAdeMO
22kW AC
15-30 min. 15-30 min. 15-30 min. 15-30 min.
© ABB Group
June 25, 2013 | Slide 14Commercial and Office Segment
DC fast charging in 30 – 120 minutes
Target Target
October October
2013 2013
Terra SC Terra SC Duo Terra SC Terra SC Duo
DC DC + AC DC DC + AC
Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial
Charger Charger Charger Charger
• 20kW DC 20kW DC 20kW DC CCS 20kW DC CCS
CHAdeMO CHAdeMO 22kW AC
22kW AC 30-120 min. 30-120 min.
30-120 min 30-120 min.
© ABB Group
June 25, 2013 | Slide 15E-Vehicles – Market Germany
National Platform E-Mobility OptE GP Consulting
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Target of the German Government are 1
Mio. Electric vehicles (BEV + PHEV)
until 2020 on German streets
The NPE consist of the following 7
company and business overlapping
working groups which meet in regular
intervals and produce reports and
guidance for further proceedings:
Drivetrain Technology
Battery Technology
Charging Infrastructure and
Powernet Integration
Norms, Standardisation and
Certification
Materials and Recycling
Talent and Qualification
General Conditions
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 16Agenda OptE GP Consulting
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Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including
Electric Vehicles
Electromobility in Germany including
E-Bikes/-Pedelecs-/Scooters
International Pilot Project in Berlin
Opportunities for Electronics Business in E-Mobility
Outlook E-Mobility 2020
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 17German “Showcases” Electromobility OptE GP Consulting
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Schaufenster-Regionen
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 18Electromobility in Berlin and
Brandenburg today
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Berlin-Brandenburg hosts more practical projects than
any other city in Germany.
More than 150 projects in our region, thereof
27 on-going projects
24 already closed projects
24 currently requested grant-projects
31 planned central projects in the showcase
48 projects in preparation
With about 500 electric cars and trucks in fleets and private
the highest amount of automotives in Germany
In addition a high unknown number of Pedelecs and
eScooter
220 public charging points – the highest number in
Germany by far, in addition a high, unknown number of
private charging points
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 19Berlin – The “hot spot” for Carsharing OptE GP Consulting
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In Berlin Carsharing was founded and developed up
to series maturity
Berlin is “the place to be“ for Carsharing in the
whole of Europe
Allready more than ten provider with many of them
adding electric vehicles to their fleets
Multicity (photo) operates a completely electric
driving fleet of over 100 Evs (started in August 2012)
Further famous provider with growing EV fleets:
car2go, drive now und Flinkster (by DB)
From 150 to over 800 Charging Stations by the
end of 2014
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 20International Showcase for
Electromobility in Berlin
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Keyfacts:
• Running time: November 2012 until end of 2015
• 31 projects with a total volume of approx. 100 million Euros, with more
than 150 partners
• The showcase highlights projects in four focal areas of application (Driving,
Storing, Charching&Parking, Connecting)
Coordinated by eMO: www.emo-berlin.de/en/
Vehicles Energy
STORING
(Smart Grid)
CONNECTING
(Nexus) CHARGING &
DRIVING
(Mobility) PARKING
(Infrastructure)
Transport
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 21Agenda OptE GP Consulting
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Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including
Electric Vehicles
Electromobility in Germany including
E-Bikes/-Pedelecs-/Scooters
International Pilot Project in Berlin
Opportunities for Electronics Business in E-Mobility
Outlook E-Mobility 2020
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 22Innovation Driver Electronics in the
Automobile OptE GP Consulting
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Electronics and Semiconductors as part of the Vehicle
Production Value
25%
Elektronik
Halbleiter
Anteil am Kfz-Produktionswert
20%
15%
10%
5% Source:
Mikroelektronik
Trendanalyse
2012 Satellite Radio,
0%
Navigations Emergency
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
System Services
Using Vehicle In- Tire Pressure
formation and Monitoring
Electronics Complexity
Communication Systems
Side- and Rear-
Drive Computer Buses
View Opto-
Power Steering Four-Wheel Drive
Four-Wheel electronics
Antilock Braking
Steering Anti-Roll
Electronic- System
Systems
Controlled Suspension Distance Interval
Control Systems LED Lighting
Timing Advance
Electronic Fuel Electronic Com-
bustion Control
Intermittent Injection
Automatic Air Electronic Value
Wipers Time Control
Conditioning
Electronic Control Per-Cylinder
Knock Control
Ignition Keyless Entry
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Source: IC Insights
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 23Outlook Electronics Content
in (Battery) Electric Vehicles OptE GP Consulting
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The Battery is the „dominating“ factor
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 24Power Electronics for Electric Vehicles, Plug-In
and Full Hybrids OptE GP Consulting
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Cost Semiconductors in VW Golf „Class“ = 300 $ US
Cost Semiconductors in E-Golf „Class“ > 660 $ US
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 25Semiconductor Demand per System
2011-2016
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Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 26Vehicle Production and Automobile
Semiconductor Demand
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Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 27E/E Growth Drivers OptE GP Consulting
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Trends in Automobile E/E Consequences
1. CO2-Reduction The dominant development goal, particularly in Europe.
Strong regulations drive engine downsizing, light weight, board net
control of ECUs, …
2. Electrification of the Drivetrain
Hybrid- and E-Cars push for extensive usage of power
electronics
3. Electrification of Auxiliaries (with more (Power)Steering, Heating/Cooling, … Up to 50 Auxiliaries in
Sensors and Actuators) one vehicle
4. Introduction of 48V-Boardnet Next Gen. Vehicles at least at some German OEMs
5. Connectivity – Also in the car „Always The second important challenge: How to connect the car with
ON“. New Car IT including operating the internet comfortable and secure? Which operating concepts
concepts (HMIs)? Which displays? …
6. (Active) Vehicle Safety, (Active)Driver Assistance systems are breaking into the
Autonomomous Driving compact class. With stable internet access even more functions
are feasible...
7. No compromising in Comfort (and Infotainment, Climate Control, Innovative Lighting, Power
Safety) features Windows, Comfortable Seats, …= „Standard“
8. Globalisation („World Car“) Regional differences to be considered „smartly“
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 28Agenda OptE GP Consulting
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Overview Automobile Production Worldwide including
Electric Vehicles
Electromobility in Germany including
E-Bikes/-Pedelecs-/Scooters
International Pilot Project in Berlin
Opportunities for Electronics Business in E-Mobility
Outlook E-Mobility 2020
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 29Challenges of the Automobile Industry OptE GP Consulting
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Generation Demography
Communication
Urbanisation-
„Green“ Mega Cities
Traffic – CO2 free
Driving,
Enviroment (Western)
Automobile International
Industry Competition
Individuality:
Increase of
Vehicle- and
Powertrain Comfort,
Portfolio Safety
Constant Time Weight
and
Cost Pressure
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 30Global Market Development for Electric Vehicles,
Plug-In and Full Hybrids until 2019 OptE GP Consulting
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Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 31Market Development Powertrain
2010 - 2020 - 2030 OptE GP Consulting
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ZVEI Study „E-Mobilität 2012“:
Large Volumes for Hybrid and Electric Vehicles already in 2020 ?!
Electric Vehicle(s) will reach in 2030 only a market share of 27 % (currently Hybrid Vehicles have a
global market share of 2 %)
Global Market Volume is estimated for 2030 of over 450 Bill. Euro (Source: McKinsey); 420.000
new jobs could develop
Toyota just sold their 5th Mill. Hybrid Vehicle – Japan every 5th car has an Electric Drivetrain
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 32Outlook – Major Technical Challenges OptE GP Consulting
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(Two) Major Technical Challenges:
1. Needs for Rare Earth Magnets for
better performance and smaller
packages
2. Affordable Battery/Cell
Technology for enlarged Capacity
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 33Electromobility –
Status and Outlook
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• Electrified Powertrains in „transportation“ are growing e.g. Plug-In Hybrids
• Especially true for „muscle driven“ two-wheelers (E-Bikes, E-Pedelecs, …)
• E-Drives for car fleets, public transportation, … have significant market potential
• Largest driver is not only pressure on CO2-Reduction, also „smog free“ in large cities, traffic noise
reduction and (more) variable mobility concepts
• Europe wants to generate a leading market and play a dominant industry and market position – But
in Japan every 5th new vehicle is already „Electrical“
− High cost (battery, …) limits larger market penetration (in Germany 2012 < 6.000 E-Vehicles were
sold)
− Various big industriy sectors such as Automobile, Infrastructure, Energy Providers, … have to
„find each other“ in working together successfully
− High additional infrastructure investments are needed for charging, billing, … Business Cases ???
− The key markets (Japan, US, France, China, Germany) favor different concepts and incentive
programs to lobby „their markets and their companies“
− Development of norms and standards across country/continent borders is a major challenge e.g.
for charging systems, …
Peter Gresch / June 19, 2013 34Optimize E Global Performance Consulting
Efficiency and Effectiveness in Global
Engineering, Project Execution and Portfolio DEvelopment for
Electrical / Electronics / MEchatronics / E-Mobility of
Automotive and other global Industries
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