Places for All A School Place Planning Strategy 2018 to 2023 newham.gov.uk - Newham Connect
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Places for All A School Place Planning Strategy 2018 to 2023 newham.gov.uk
Contents
1.0 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 3
1.1 Mainstream Education ............................................................................................................ 3
1.2 Special Education Needs and Disabilities................................................................................ 4
1.3 Early Years ............................................................................................................................... 4
1.4 Post-16 Education and Training .............................................................................................. 5
1.5 Next Steps ............................................................................................................................... 5
2.0 Compulsory Education ................................................................................................................ 6
2.1 Monitoring Demand for Mainstream Pupil Places ................................................................. 6
2.2 Pupil demographics for Primary and Secondary Schools ....................................................... 6
2.3 Funding to commission new school places ............................................................................. 8
2.4 Process to provide additional mainstream school places....................................................... 9
3.0 Forecasting for Mainstream School Places ............................................................................... 11
3.1 Planning areas ............................................................................................................................. 11
3.2 Secondary School Places Forecasts ....................................................................................... 12
3.3 Schools within the Secondary Pupil Place Planning Area ..................................................... 14
3.4 Year 7 Forecasts .................................................................................................................... 14
3.5 Overall Secondary Forecasts ....................................................................................................... 16
3.6 Primary School Place Forecasts .................................................................................................. 17
3.7 Beckton Planning Area ................................................................................................................ 20
3.8 Canning Town and Custom House Primary Planning Area ......................................................... 21
3.9 East Ham Planning Area .............................................................................................................. 25
4.0 Forest Gate Planning Area .......................................................................................................... 27
4.1 Manor Park Primary Planning Area............................................................................................. 29
4.2 Plaistow Primary Planning Area .................................................................................................. 31
4.3 Stratford Primary Planning Area ................................................................................................. 33
5.0 Special Educational Needs provision .................................................................................... 36
5.1 Duties for children and young people aged 0 to 25 with SEND ............................................ 36
5.2 SEND Provision ...................................................................................................................... 36
5.3 An inclusive approach to special educational needs and disability (SEND) .......................... 38
5.4 SEND Needs analysis ............................................................................................................. 38
5.5 SEND Emerging plans ............................................................................................................ 38
1|Page
5.6 Pupil Referral Units and Alternative Provision ..................................................................... 39
Appendix A: Births ................................................................................................................................ 40
Appendix B: Types of Schools in Newham ............................................................................................ 42
Appendix C: School place planning methodology................................................................................. 43
Appendix D: Capital Basic Need Projects Undertaken .......................................................................... 45
Appendix E: 16-19 place analysis and projections ................................................................................ 47
2|Page
1.0 Executive Summary
Local Authorities have a statutory duty towards the spiritual, moral, mental and physical
development of the community by securing sufficient education provision to meet the needs
of the population within their area. This duty encompasses provision for all primary and
secondary aged pupils from to sixteen years of age; provision of post-16 places; provision of
early years places from birth to the age of five; and provision of specialist education places
for any child that requires a place from birth extending to the age of 25.
This place planning strategy makes recommendations for adjustments in the supply of future
provision based on forecasts of need. The five year forecasts include population growth that
is anticipated from Newham’s housing development programme. The strategy has been
developed with engagement from head teachers and governors from schools in Newham. It
includes provision for Special Education Needs and Disabilities, Early Years, and Post-16
planning.
By providing information to residents and stakeholders, the purpose of this strategy is to
provide a platform for transparency and engagement on decision-making for future school
provision.
The last ten years has seen an increasing child population in Newham which has increased
the demand for education provision. The Office of National Statistics mid-year population
estimates have identified Newham as having the third highest 0 to 15 aged population in
London. Although recent birth trends indicate that the large increases previously
experienced in births have now slowed down, this has also been reflected in the birth rate in
Newham. Newham’s Local Plan has identified approximately 19,000 new homes to be
delivered over the next five years and beyond. This place planning strategy incorporates the
latest pupil projections based on known live births, housing yields and current trends to
ensure resources are prioritised accordingly to deliver the best provision for all.
1.1 Mainstream Education
Newham has responded proactively to the increases in its mainstream primary aged
population by providing additional primary places through the expansion of existing schools.
The primary January School Census (2018) evidenced an increase of an additional 6,000
pupils being educated within Newham from January 2010 to January 2018.
After a period of continuous primary school roll growth the latest pupil projections have
identified:
1. The level of live births has stopped rising and has levelled out over recent years. The
significant increases in the number of pupils joining reception year is not forecast to
increase further and therefore primary numbers will stabilise into the future, other than in
those areas where significant additional housing is planned.
2. A number of primary schools have raised concerns over an increasing number of unfilled
places experienced in their schools. This is a trend that has been experienced across
London due to a decrease in births. Factors such as the unaffordability of homes, the
economic viability of families to remain in London and trends in migration rates have
caused uncertainty.
3. Sufficient infrastructure is required to meet the need of 19,000 planned new homes in the
borough. The occupation of these developments will increase the population of Newham
3|Page
and subsequently the demand for school provision. The potential pupil yield from
residential developments impacts specifically in the pupil place planning areas of:
Beckton - forecasts show a deficit of places from 2021/22;
Canning Town & Custom House - a potential deficit of places from 2023/24; and
Stratford - a deficit of places from 2022/23.
Canning Town & Custom House primary place planning area shows the largest deficit of
places arising from the pupil yield from new housing. Potential increases from pupil yield
will have an impact across all school year groups.
Provision has been made within the Infrastructure Delivery Plan to provide additional
primary places in response to the housing developments. It is important to acknowledge
that forecasts based on anticipated pupil yield are more volatile than forecasts based on
known birth data and school cohort growth patterns. Many external factors impact pupil
yields such as the completion date of the development; changes in housing mix or
number of bedrooms; the development being occupied by existing Newham residents
thereby not increasing the overall population but moving from over-crowded housing to
new housing; economic and social factors, national and local policies and trends can
impact the build and occupation of future developments.
4. Following the increases in the primary school roll over the last ten years there is now a
rising need for additional secondary school places in Newham. The existing secondary
supply together with the proposed additional expansions of two secondary schools is
insufficient to meet the additional demand of the increased primary cohorts transitioning
into the secondary sector.
The latest secondary roll projections indicate that there will be considerable pressure on
secondary school places of around 3,177 places (the equivalent of 21 forms of entry) up
to 2025/26. These are based on pupils already within the primary setting. Projections
beyond this date will rely on projected reception rolls and projected births. The Council
is proposing to provide some of these additional places through the expansion of
existing secondary schools. To ensure the places are available it is necessary to
postpone some of the existing primary projects to make to enable capital funding to be
directed to the area of greatest need.
1.2 Special Education Needs and Disabilities
There has been increased pressure for provision for children and young people with special
education needs and disability (SEND) or an Education Health Care Plan (EHCP)
particularly relating to complex autism. To address this there has been additional resourced
provision provided within existing Newham primary schools. There is a pressing need for
additional specialist places for secondary age children.
1.3 Early Years
There are sufficient places within the early years sector for the birth to under five year olds.
Provision in this sector has been increased since 2015 by 11%. Changes in the childcare
market and the extended 30 hour free entitlement, introduction of tax-free childcare, and the
increase in the child population has the potential for further growth. The local authority has a
role to play in facilitating and promoting sufficient early years provision.
4|Page
1.4 Post-16 Education and Training
Local authorities are required to promote participation in education and training of 16 and 17
year olds. For those with Education Health Care plans this duty extends to the age of 25. In
Newham the majority of secondary schools provide education up to the age of 16.
Additional provision for education and training has been provided through places at
NewVic and the UTC colleges. Past trends indicate significant mobility in the post-16
population, in recent years this trend has reversed with an increased take-up of Newham
students taking up places in Newham. With the projected increases in the secondary
school sector this has a significant effect on post-16 provision which is forecasted to
increase by approximately 2,500 pupils over the next five years described in Appendix
E.
1.5 Next Steps
There are significant pressures for additional secondary school places within the
mainstream and SEND sector over the next five academic years. Current funding and
future funding needs to be prioritised to ensure sufficiency and best value is achieved for
all. It is therefore necessary to review all planned schemes to identify how best to utilise
the funding.
To ensure sufficient education places for all the Council is working with its partners,
educational providers, service users and the Department for Education to engage all
interested parties in the dialogue.
.
5|Page
2.0 Compulsory Education
The Education Act 1996 (section 14) imposes a duty on local authorities to secure sufficient
school provision for all pupils of ages four to sixteen within its area. This duty requires the
local authority to monitor and review its current supply of school provision against the
forecasted demand; making necessary adjustments to the supply to ensure there is not an
unnecessary surplus or deficit of places.
Newham has 66 state-funded schools providing primary aged education and 21 schools
providing secondary aged education. Approximately 50% of the state-funded schools are
academies or free-schools. Appendix B provides further details of these. In addition to this
education is also provided for pupils that are not in mainstream provision due to reasons of
illness, exclusion or otherwise at Pupil Referral Units at Tunmarsh School and New
Directions; The Reintegration to Education Team; the Coborn Centre at Newham University
hospital; and other provisions for those most vulnerable.
2.1 Monitoring Demand for Mainstream Pupil Places
Demand for pupil places within the mainstream sector is monitored using a forecasting
methodology based on guidance from the Department for Education’s projection toolkit. The
outputs from the methodology are used to inform strategic decision making and allocate
capital resources to the areas of greatest need.
The results of the forecasting methodology are compared with the known supply of school
places to identify any surpluses or deficits in school places. The Audit commission
recommends an operating surplus of 5% to allow for in-year admissions.
The projection methodology is checked for accuracy against the outcome of the January
School Census. The projections produced annually by the authority and reported to Cabinet
and to the Department for Education (DfE) as part of the annual School Capacity Return
(SCAP). The data in this return is used by the DfE to calculate projected shortfalls in pupil
numbers to determine Basic Need Funding capital allocations. Basic Need Funding is
provided to local authorities to meet the capital costs of additional school places, with
allocations from previous years being awarded primarily for primary provision.
2.2 Pupil demographics for Primary and Secondary Schools
Over the past five years, the pupil population has increased by over 12% which represents
nearly 6,000 additional pupils. Continued growth in the secondary sector is expected
(Appendix A) as increased primary numbers transfer to the secondary sector.
6|Page
55000 53694
52582
53000 51538
51000 49944
48897
Number of Pupils
49000 47729
46370
47000 45568
44633 44516 44710 44902
45000
43000
41000
39000
37000
35000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Figure 1: Total number of primary and secondary mainstream pupils, 2006 to 2017 (excluding
post-16, Special schools and Alternative education)1
5500
5012 5046
4921 4948
5000 4834 4771
Number of Pupils
4493
4500
4253
4071
3959
4000 3835
3551
3500
3000
R 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
National Curriculum Year
Figure 2: Total number of pupils in each year group, January 2017 (excluding post-16, Special schools
2
and Alternative education)
Figure 3 shows that recent growth has focused on primary year groups. The growth in the
primary phase is now progressing through to the secondary phase.
1
Newham January School Census data (2006 to 2017)
2
Newham January 2017 School Census data
7|Page
60000
19,669
18,941
50000
18,587
18,019
17,872
17,921
17,751
17,662
17,836
17,694
17,731
17,568
40000
34,025
33,641
Secondary
32,951
30000
31,925
31,025
29,808
Primary
28,619
27,906
27,066
27,016
26,948
26,902
20000
10000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Figure 3: Total number of primary and secondary mainstream pupils, 2006 to 2017 (excluding post-
16, Special schools and Alternative education) broken into phases.
Figure 4 illustrates historically the relatively modest rise in secondary numbers compared to
the significant rise in primary numbers.
2.3 Funding to commission new school places
Basic Need Funding
To enable local authorities to deliver school provision brought about by the increases in birth
rates and population the Department for Education provides basic need capital funding
based on current and future school provision and anticipated pupil forecasts. In addition to
this the free-school programme delivers school places that are funded directly by the
Department’s Education and Education and School Funding Agency.
Newham has received £228,523,658 in Basic Needs Funding from financial year 2011/12 to
2019/20. The capital programme for school places is determined annually by the Council to
meet the priority for school places. This means that the capital programme may change
depending on emerging priorities. When new schemes are identified these are normally
estimates based on high level feasibility studies. Actual costs are often unknown until a
number of processes are completed such as: full design, procurement and tendering of
contracts, planning conditions and commencement of contractual works onsite. Appendix D
provides a list of projects undertaken using the Basic Need funding.
When additional school places are opened, the Schools Forum is able to determine whether
a proportion of revenue funding is retained centrally to fund those places in advance of the
school’s budget. This enables schools to resource new places in a way which is timely,
effective and maximises the opportunity of high quality places.
8|Page
New Free School Programme
In addition to Basic Need Funding new free-schools can be funded through the DfE’s new
free school programme. This requires providers to express interest in establishing a new
free-school through the DfE. The DfE has currently opened wave 13 of its free-school
programme requesting providers to focus on opening schools in the areas of greatest need,
with Newham identified as having a need for secondary provision3.
Previously there have been a number of free-schools delivered through the new free-school
programme (School 21, Bobby More Academy) providing additional places which have been
funded centrally by the ESFA.
Housing Developer Contributions
In addition to capital grants from central government, the Community Infrastructure Levy
(CIL) and Section 106 agreements may also provide additional funds from residential
developers to fund new school places. These are agreed by the planning authority, for
Newham, either London Borough of Newham (LBN) or the London Legacy Development
Corporation (LLDC).
Special Provision Fund
For Special Education Needs and Disability, the DfE announced the Special Provision
capital fund to assist local authorities in delivering and improving such places. For this
Newham has been awarded a total of £2,761,274 across three financial years from 2018/19
to 2020/21.
New Special Free School Bid
The DfE invited expressions of interest from local authorities to establish new special free
school provision in the autumn of 2018. Newham has submitted a bid for a 100 place special
school and is awaiting the outcome. If the bid is unsuccessful consideration needs to be
given on how the Council will meet the need for such provision.
2.4 Process to provide additional mainstream school places
Local authorities still maintain the duty to secure sufficient school provision, however the
process in which to deliver this has altered through various legislative changes in school
organisation and the introduction of free-schools and academies.
Forecasting future school demand against the known and future supply of provision is an
important mechanism for fulfilling this duty. This enables local authorities to review and
make recommendations on potential shortfalls and surplus provision of places. Local
authorities and education providers are to work in partnership to ensure sufficiency and
quality of provision.
Having identified a need for additional places a local authority is able to deliver this by:
Permanent Expansion of existing schools by increasing floor areas and extending school
building’s to provide for a permanent increase in the number of pupils to be admitted.
Expansions can be subject to legal processes, planning and building permissions. This
often is seen as more cost-effective than opening a new school which entail higher build and
3
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/706188/
Wave_13_Map_of_estimated_number_of_secondary_places_needed.pdf
Newham January School Census data (2006 to 2017)
9|Pageland costs. Many authorities are not able to identify and secure suitable sites for new
schools.
Temporary Expansions and Bulge Classes these are delivered for a fixed number of years,
usually while a cohort moves through the school system. These may be within existing
accommodation, mobile classrooms or permanent alterations to the school. They can
require planning permission and adaptations to internal buildings, however statutory school
organisation proposals are not required. Temporary expansions can be provided to meet an
unexpected need or be planned to accommodate foreseen need.
Increases in Planned Admission Number the admitting authority for a school is able to
provide additional places through an increase in admission numbers. This can be through
increasing the PAN for future years (within existing accommodation) or over-offering of
places.
Establishing a New School Generally there are two options in which a new school can
be established.
The first route is through the DfE’s new free-school waves where providers express an
interest to open provision within a local authority area. Capital funding for the provision
is provided by the DfE/EFSA through the central free-schools programme. In Newham a
number of schools have been delivered through this route. (Bobby More Academy,
School 21).
The other option requires local authorities to seek proposals to establish an academy/free
school under the Education Act 2011 free-school presumption. Under the presumption route
the local authority is responsible for providing the site for the new school. It is the
department’s expectation that the site be made available free or on a peppercorn basis by
the local authority to the free-school provider. The local authority is also responsible for
meeting the associated capital and pre/post-opening revenue costs. Basic need capital
funding is provided on a non-ring-fenced basis; so that local authorities can provide the
places that they need, including through new presumption schools. The decision on all new
free school proposals lies with the Secretary of State. Newham has not delivered a free-
school under the free-school presumption route.
10 | P a g e3.0 Forecasting for Mainstream School Places
The statutory duty for the provision of school places includes forecasting future demand and
making recommendations to adjust the supply accordingly. Newham uses a school
projections method in line with other authorities. Data used to forecast school roll projections
includes ONS live birth data for the borough; previous trends identified in the School
Census; current and planned housing developments; cohort survival patterns; and cross-
border movements. Trends in school applications, parental preference, school performance
and local demographic knowledge are also used to inform the forecasts. Pupil forecasts
provide a good indication of future need at a given point in time. It is important to emphasise
the forecasts are not absolute certainties, as information and future trends are subject to
change. Forecasts are reviewed annually in the spring and summer term as new data and
trends emerge.
3.1 Planning areas
Each year the DfE collects information on school places from local authorities as part of the
annual school capacity SCAP collection. Local authorities are required to provide, at pupil
planning area level, information about the number of registered pupils and the capacity of
state funded schools in their area. The annual return also includes local authorities’ own
forecasts of pupil numbers by year group and for whom primary and secondary education
will be provided.
Guidance from DfE states that planning areas should take account of, local geography;
parental preference patterns; distance between schools; schools located in close proximity;
For primary planning purposes Newham is divided into seven planning areas (shown in
Figure 5):
Beckton;
Canning Town & Custom House;
East Ham;
Forest Gate;
Manor Park;
Plaistow; and
Stratford.
For secondary there is one planning area covering all of Newham.
The following sections gives an analysis of the planning areas showing current and projected
supply and demand of school places, with opportunities for potential new provision
highlighted.
Please note that capacity figures are based on the published admission numbers (PAN) for
each year. The demand for school places is based on a number of factors and this is
outlined in more detail in Appendix C – School place planning methodology.
School expansions are listed as either confirmed or unconfirmed. The latter will be due to a
number of factors including, necessary consultations statutory or otherwise; planning
approvals; the availability of sites; procurement; costs; and capital programme priorities.
Unconfirmed expansions are subject to review.
11 | P a g eFigure 5 – Primary Place Planning Areas
3.2 Secondary School Places Forecasts
Demand for secondary school places within Newham is forecasted to increase over the next
five years. This is due to the larger primary cohorts which are now transitioning to secondary
schools. The Local Plan will deliver approximately 19,000 new homes in Newham over the
next five years and will place additional pressure on secondary school provision. The
forecasted increases in secondary demand are in line with those being experienced in many
London authorities. The existing supply of places and potential places, from additional free-
schools, is insufficient to meet the forecasted demand.
Since the academic year 2011/12 to the current academic year 2018/19 there has been an
increase of 32% of pupils on roll in Year 7 within Newham schools. The 2018/19 academic
year evidenced an increase on 282 pupils from the previous year, equivalent to ten forms of
entry.
Increase in Year 7 Numbers on Roll
School Academic Year 7 Increase from
Census Year Roll Previous Year
Jan-12 2011/12 3509
12 | P a g eJan-13 2012/13 3530 21
Jan-14 2013/14 3729 199
Jan-15 2014/15 3960 231
Jan-16 2015/16 4038 78
Jan-17 2016/17 4253 215
Jan-18 2017/18 4345 92
Oct-18* 2018/19 4627 282
Oct-18 Census data will be replaced by Jan-19 Census when available
Recent trends indicate that a higher number of Year 6 Newham pupils (in the last year of
their primary education) are transitioning to take up Year 7 places in Newham (the first year
of secondary education) than previously identified. This together with the higher number of
primary pupils progressing through the school system translates to an increased demand for
secondary school places.
Year 6 to Year 7 Transition Rate
Year 6
Pupils Transitioning to
Year 7 Entry Year 7
September 2011 -8.50%
September 2012 -6.81%
September 2013 -4.90%
September 2014 -4.14%
September 2015 -4.52%
September 2016 -6.38%
September 2017 -3.29%
September 2018* -2.57%
Based on Oct-18 School Census data
The following shows the actual numbers in Year 7 based on the Schools Census over the
last three academic years, at each termly census point. Data will be added for 2018/19 when
available.
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
National Offer
4103 4413 4441 4743
Day offers
Oct census 3978 4263 4159 4627
Jan census 4038 4253 4214
May census 4046 4288 4231
Vacancies reported by schools – year 7, for the last three academic years
13 | P a g e2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Oct census 208 71 224 153
Jan census 196 32 222
May census 184 55 221
3.3 Schools within the Secondary Pupil Place Planning Area
Bobby Moore Academy Langdon Academy Sarah Bonnell School
Brampton Manor Academy Lister Community School School 21
Chobham Academy Little Ilford School St Angela's Ursuline School
East London Science School London Design and St Bonaventure's RC School
Engineering UTC
Eastlea Community School Oasis Academy Silvertown Stratford School
Forest Gate Community School Plashet School The Cumberland School
Kingsford Community School Rokeby School The Royal Docks Community
School
3.4 Year 7 Forecasts
Year 7 forecasts from the academic year 2019/20 are illustrated in the table below and
include pupil yield from the Council’s Local Plan. The places available for 2019/20 include, a
proposed 174 additional bulge places at Eastlea (60), Lister (60), St Bonaventure’s RC (24)
and the possibility of Royal Docks increasing its PAN to lift its cap by 30. The planned
expansions at Brampton Manor and Forest Gate will provide an additional 90 places (rising
to 120 the year after) and 60 places from September 2019 respectively.
Academic Year
Newham Year 7 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places Available 4,737 4,563 4,563 4,563 4,563
Potential Places (unconfirmed) 4,911 4,857 4,947 5,037 5,037
Places required 4,802 4,798 4,915 4,995 5,024
14 | P a g e5200 Forecast Year 7 Forecasts
Actual + 2019 Bulge
5000 Unconfirmed Expansions
4800
4600
4400
4200
4000
Sept 19 Sept 20 Sept 21 Sept 22 Sept 23 Sept 24 Sept 25
Plans for proposed additional secondary places are underway to deliver further provision to
meet the increased demand. These include permanent expansions at the following
secondary schools categorised in the table above as unconfirmed expansions:
Brampton Manor Academy – permanent expansion of 4 forms of entry (120 additional
places per year group) to provide a total of 600 places. For September 2019 an
additional 90 will be available incrementing to 120 in the subsequent academic year ;
Forest Gate – permanent expansion of 2 forms of entry (60 additional places per year
group) to provide a total of 300 places from September 2019;
There are plans for two new free-schools to be provided through DfE approved free-school
programme within the vicinity of strategic housing sites. These are both proposed by School
21, Campus a 3FE school and Sugar Lane a potential 2.8FE school. These are expected to
open by September 2021 subject to suitable sites being secured.
The September 2019 forecasted position shows a deficit of two forms of entry against a
supply of 4,737 known places available (includes temporary and bulge provision). Should
the expansions at Brampton Manor Academy and Forest Gate be delivered for September
2019 with the proposed 174 bulge places at the above mentioned schools there would be
sufficient places with marginal operating headroom of 2%. The need for ‘bulge’ classes for
September 2019 will be kept under review once confirmed data is available on numbers of
pupils offered places for year 7 entry, early in 2019. It is important to avoid excessive over
provision of places in order to support Newham’s schools to be financially sustainable.
To ensure sufficient Year 7 places beyond September 2019 additional provision is required.
15 | P a g e3.5 Overall Secondary Forecasts
The graph below illustrates the forecasted secondary position (Year 7 to Year 11) including
pupil yield from residential development in the five year housing supply. The forecasts show
that without the above proposed increase in places the secondary estate would have a
deficit of around 3,177 places, around 21 forms of entry by 2025/26. With the proposed
additional school provision in place this deficit for 2025/26 reduces to 897 places or six
forms of entry.
27000
Total (Years 7 to 11) Numbers on Roll including Pupil Yield
26000 Forecast with Pupil Yield
Actual
Actual + 2019 bulge
25000
Unconfirmed expansions
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26
The Council is facing increased demand for places as pupils move through the secondary
school system. For the academic year 2017/18 provision was made for an additional Year 9
bulge class. There is continued pressure in the current academic year 2018/19 across the
higher secondary year group.
The above graph illustrates the forecasted demand against the actual provision and
provision with unconfirmed expansions. Unconfirmed/planned expansions include proposed
permanent provision at Brampton Manor, Forest Gate; increases in PAN at Royal Docks,
Oasis Academy and the Chobham Academy.
Head teachers of all secondary schools were consulted earlier in the autumn term to express
an interest for future proposed permanent expansions. Lister, Rokeby and Little Ilford have
expressed an interest for proposed expansions. Following an expression of interest,
feasibilities will be conducted and schools to be expanded will be selected upon the
following criteria: Ofsted rating of good or outstanding; Site and existing building capacity –
ease of deliverability and associated capital costs; geographical location; parental
preferences
16 | P a g eThere are also proposals for two new free-schools to open as part of Wave 12 of the DfE
free-schools programme to be provided by School 21.
Should any of the unconfirmed expansions be delayed or not occur this will increase the
forecasted deficit. It is necessary to ensure pupil yield and cohort growths from the primary
to secondary transfer is closely monitored.
To ensure the Council is able to provide the proposed secondary places funding needs to be
aligned meet this need. Therefore, it is necessary to review all basic need funded
programmes to ensure priority is given to the provision of secondary places.
Headlines for Secondary Planning Area
Necessary to prioritise funding to provide additional secondary places
Proposed future expansions are awaited at Brampton Manor, Forest Gate
and Oasis
Proposed two new all-through free schools are anticipated
Bulge classes needed for 2019 – the number will be kept under review
Around 19,000 new homes in the next five years yield approximately 1,551
secondary pupils
With known future expansions, by 2025 there will be a deficit of around 900
places
3.6 Primary School Place Forecasts
The starting point for forecasting primary school projections is the live births that have
occurred to mothers resident in the borough. This data is provided by ONS annually in July
for the previous calendar year. A birth to reception ratio is calculated to identify how many
births transpire to reception aged pupil in a Newham state-funded school. The turn of the
century evidenced an increase in births across England and Wales, with London recording
birth rates substantially higher than the national average.
The increase in births and migration into Newham has been evidenced in the primary school
roll. Since January 2010 the primary school roll has evidenced an increase of 6,000
additional pupils from Reception to Year 6. The Council has successfully responded to the
increased demand by providing additional primary provision.
17 | P a g eGrowth in Primary School Roll
No. on
School Academic Roll
Census Year (YR-Y6) Growth %Change
Jan-10 2009/10 27,906
Jan-11 2010/11 28,619 713 2.56%
Jan-12 2011/12 29,810 1,191 4.16%
Jan-13 2012/13 31,025 1,215 4.08%
Jan-14 2013/14 31,944 919 2.96%
Jan-15 2014/15 32,953 1,009 3.16%
Jan-16 2015/16 33,666 713 2.16%
Jan-17 2016/17 34,025 359 1.07%
Jan-18 2017/18 34,282 257 0.76%
Oct-18* 2018/19 34,237 -45 -0.13%
*Oct-18 Census data will be replaced by Jan-19 Census when available
The growth in the primary sector is now reducing due to a decrease in births. The current
academic year 2018/19 has seen a decrease in the primary school roll of 45 pupils across
Reception to Year 6. This impact is most apparent in the Reception year group with a
number of schools experiencing low roll numbers. A similar trend has been reported in
many authorities across London including neighbouring authorities. Plausible reasons
include the decrease in births from 2013 onwards combined with increasing housing costs,
limited availability of family housing leading to families moving away from London.
Latest primary forecasts indicate that while overall there is sufficient primary provision across
Newham, there are planning areas that will experience increased demand from residential
housing developments from 2021 onwards. To ensure there is not an over-provision of
school places it is necessary to ensure timeliness for delivery of proposed provision and
closely monitor the delivery of new housing developments.
3.6.1 Borough wide Reception Forecasts
The table below illustrates the demand and supply for future local authority wide reception
places.
Academic Year
Newham Reception
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
Year 2023/24
Places available 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540 5,540
Places required 4,780 4,728 4,646 4,701 4,735
18 | P a g e3.6.2 Borough wide Primary Forecasts
Across the borough there is sufficient primary provision (Reception to Year 6) until 2022
when demand increases due to pupil yields from housing.
Academic Year
Newham Rec to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places available 37,655 37,940 38,135 38,330 38,510
Potential Places available 37,795 38,340 38,795 39,250 39,500
Places required 34,929 35,387 35,599 35,913 36,134
Primary forecast all year groups (Rec to Year 6)
including pupil yield
40,000
39,000
38,000
37,000
36,000
35,000
34,000
33,000
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Forecast with Pupil Yield Known places Potential places
19 | P a g e3.7 Beckton Planning Area
The Beckton planning area is forecasted to have shortfall of primary places with 1,438 new
homes planned in the next five years. Estimated primary pupil yield for Beckton is 255
primary pupils. There are a number of strategic development sites for housing with the
Beckton planning area and a potential for a new school in the Albert Basin development.
Ellen Wilkinson Primary School North Beckton Primary School
Gallions Primary School Winsor Primary School
3.7.1 Beckton Reception Forecasts
Reception forecasts are in line with Reception places in the Beckton area.
Academic Year
Beckton Reception Year 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places available 330 330 330 330 330
Forecasts 286 283 278 281 285
20 | P a g eBeckton Reception Year
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places required Places available
3.7.2 Beckton Primary Forecasts YR to Y6
The anticipated pupil yield and primary cohort growth will create additional pressure on the
demand for school places within Beckton.
Academic Year
Beckton Rec to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places available 2,310 2,310 2,310 2,310 2,310
Forecasts 2,152 2,216 2,314 2,361 2,347
Beckton Primary YR to Y6
2,400
2,350
2,300
2,250
2,200
2,150
2,100
2,050
2,000
1,950
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places required Places available
21 | P a g e3.8 Canning Town and Custom House Primary Planning Area
Canning Town and Custom House planning areas have a number of strategic sites with
large scale planned housing development of 7,336 new homes. This will generate an
estimated pupil yield of 1,262 primary pupils. Additional primary places (subject to the
housing developments coming on board) will be required from September 2021 onwards.
Current proposed plans for expansion of Hallsville School will be postponed until 2022 when
the places maybe required. In addition to this there are plans for a 2FE Royal Wharf free-
school to be established from the wave 11 free-schools programme.
Britannia Village Keir Hardie Primary St Joachim's RC Primary
Calverton Primary Ravenscroft Primary St Luke's Primary
Drew Primary Rosetta Primary Star Primary
Hallsville Primary Scott Wilkie Primary
Royal Wharf primary
(Wave 11 free school)
22 | P a g e3.8.1 Canning Town and Custom House Reception Forecasts
There is a sufficiency of Reception Places in the Canning Town and Custom House planning
area.
Academic Year
Canning Town Reception
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Year
Places available 810 810 810 810 810
Places required 639 632 621 628 633
Canning Town and Custom House Reception
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places required Places available
3.8.2 Canning Town and Custom House Primary Forecasts
The table and chart below illustrate the demand and supply for places within this planning
area. Confirmed expansions at St Joachims and the Royal Wharf free school have been
incorporated into the places available. Potential places available include the expansion at
Hallsville from 2022 onwards.
Academic Year
Canning Town Rec to
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Year 6
Places available 5,160 5,250 5,340 5,430 5,520
Potential Places available 5,160 5,280 5,400 5,520 5,640
Places required 4,813 5,030 5,242 5,498 5,708
23 | P a g e6,000 Canning Town and Custom House
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Academic Year
Places required Places available (Confirmed) Potential Places available(Unconfirmed)
24 | P a g e3.9 East Ham Planning Area
The East Ham planning area has the highest pupil population of all the primary planning
areas. Nearly 1,400 new homes are expected in the next five years. There is a surplus of
primary place which will be available for the anticipated increases from the additional
housing.
Altmore Infant Hartley Primary Roman Road Primary
Brampton Primary Langdon Academy St Michael's Catholic
Central Park Primary Lathom Junior St Stephen's Primary
Cleves Primary Nelson Primary Vicarage Primary
3.9.1 East Ham Reception Forecasts
There is not a need for additional reception places in the East Ham planning area.
Academic Year
East Ham Reception
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Year
Places available 1,110 1,110 1,110 1,110 1,110
Places required 987 977 979 999 966
25 | P a g eEast Ham Reception Year
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places required Places available
3.9.2 East ham Primary Forecasts YR-Y6
There is sufficiency of primary provision within this planning area as depicted in the data
below. The surpluses are higher than 5% but below 10%.
Academic Year
East Ham Reception
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
to Year 6
Places available 7,740 7,740 7,770 7,770 7,770
Places required 7,176 7,215 7,231 7,203 7,021
East Ham Primary YR-Y6
7,800
7,600
7,400
7,200
7,000
6,800
6,600
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places required Places available
26 | P a g e4.0 Forest Gate Planning Area
Forest Gate planning area is in the north of the borough bordering Redbridge and Waltham
Forest. There is a high density of housing, mainly Victorian terraced family housing. The
Local Plan identifies 186 new homes in the next five years, which is significantly minimal
when compared to other areas within the borough. It is estimated that there will be an
additional 32 primary pupils over the next five years from additional housing.
Should there be a requirement for additional places there is potential to expand Odessa and
St James schools.
Earlham Primary Odessa Infant St Antony's RC Primary Woodgrange Infant
Elmhurst Primary Sandringham Primary St James' CofE Junior
Godwin Junior Shaftesbury Primary William Davies Primary
4.0.1 Forest Gate Reception Forecasts
Reception forecasts with places available are illustrated below.
Academic Year
Forest Gate
Reception Year 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places available 690 690 690 690 690
Places required 640 633 622 630 638
27 | P a g eForest Gate Reception
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places required Places available
4.0.2 Forest Gate Primary Forecasts YR-Y6
Academic Year
Forest Gate
Reception to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places available 4,800 4,830 4,830 4,830 4,830
Places required 4,549 4,551 4,541 4,515 4,481
Forest Gate Reception to Year 6
8,000
7,800
7,600
7,400
7,200
7,000
6,800
6,600
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places required Places available
28 | P a g e4.1 Manor Park Primary Planning Area
The Manor Park primary Planning area is in the north-east of the borough and borders the
neighbouring borough of Redbridge. This is a high density of Victorian housing within this
area with very little land for additional housing developments. There are no proposed new
housing units within this area. Forecasts indicate a healthy surplus of places and there is no
requirement for further provision.
Avenue Primary Kensington Primary Sheringham Primary
Dersingham Primary Monega Primary Sir John Heron Primary
Essex Primary Salisbury Primary St Winefride's RC Primary
4.1.1 Manor Park Reception Forecasts
Academic Year
Manor Park
Reception 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places available 800 800 800 800 800
Places required 739 731 719 732 737
29 | P a g eManor Park Reception Forecast
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Forecasts Places available
4.1.2 Manor Park Primary Forecasts
Academic Year
Manor Park
Reception to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places available 5,570 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600
Places required 5,238 5,237 5,200 5,168 5,152
Manor Park Primary
7,000
6,800
6,600
6,400
6,200
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places required Places available
30 | P a g e4.2 Plaistow Primary Planning Area
The Plaistow primary planning area has sufficient primary provision. There are a negligible
162 new homes planned in the next five years yielding an estimated 28 primary pupils over
next five years. The planning area has sufficient places for the level of demand.
Curwen Primary New City Primary Selwyn Primary St Helen's Primary
Grange Primary Plaistow Primary Southern Road Primary Tollgate Primary
Kaizen Primary Portway Primary St Edward's Primary Upton Cross Primary
4.2.1 Plaistow Reception Forecasts
Academic Year
Plaistow Reception 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places available 990 990 990 990 990
Places required 848 839 825 834 845
31 | P a g ePlaistow Reception Forecasts
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Forecasts Places available
4.2.1 Plaistow Primary Forecasts
Academic Year
Plaistow Reception
to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places available 6,750 6,780 6,810 6,840 6,840
Places required 6,023 5,994 5,993 5,981 5,940
Plaistow Primary Forecasts
7,000
6,800
6,600
6,400
6,200
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places required Places available
32 | P a g e4.3 Stratford Primary Planning Area
The Stratford primary planning area incorporates the areas of Stratford and West Ham. The
Stratford area has evidenced significant change with regard to housing developments and
investment from the Olympic Park and stadium. There are plans for a further 6,722 new
homes in the next five years, with an estimated primary pupil yield of 1,156 pupils.
Reception forecasts for this planning area indicate sufficient provision in the short-term. The
pupil yield from the proposed housing developments may produce greater demand for
overall primary places within this planning area. This will need to be monitored to ensure
timeliness of any proposed additional places is in line with occupancy of the housing
developments. There are proposed expansions at Colegrave, Maryland and Ranelagh
primary schools within this area. Two free-school proposals have also been confirmed
(School 21 Sugar House and School 21 Campus) to provide all-through education. It is
necessary to evaluate all proposed provision to ensure provision it is brought on in line with
housing occupancy. Due to this it has been projects at Maryland and Colegrave have been
selected to be postponed by one to two years, as they are in the early stages.
33 | P a g eBobby Moore Academy Gainsborough Primary Ranelagh Primary
Carpenters Primary Manor Primary School 21
Chobham Academy Maryland Primary St Francis' Catholic Primary
Colegrave Primary Park Primary West Ham Church Primary
4.3.1 Stratford Reception
Academic Year
Stratford Reception 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places available 810 810 810 810 810
Places required 652 658 651 655 655
Stratford Reception
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Forecasts Places available
4.3.2 Stratford Primary
Academic Year
Stratford Reception
to Year 6 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places available 5,325 5,400 5,475 5,550 5,610
Potential Places 5,355 5,520 5,735 6,040 6,330
Places required 5,104 5,263 5,504 5,791 5,748
34 | P a g e7,000 Stratford Primary
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Places required Places available (Confirmed) Potential Places available(Unconfirmed)
Headlines Primary Provision
Birth rate within Newham is falling in line with London births
Since January 2010 the primary roll has increased by 6,000 pupils
Newham has accommodated this increase by investing in its primary provision
Sufficient Reception places across Newham
Next increases are likely to be from housing developments
Increases expected in Canning Town & Custom House, Stratford and Beckton
Pupil yield from housing dependent upon various factors occupancy, social, economic
Proposed planned provision in the primary sector to be reviewed and postponed
(where possible) to ensure timeliness of provision in line with new housing occupancy
35 | P a g e5.0 Provision for Special Educational Needs and Disabilities
Local authorities have legal duties to identify and assess the special educational needs
(“SEN”) and disability of children and young people within their area and ensure there is
sufficient provision to meet the needs.
5.1 Duties for children and young people aged 0 to 25 with SEND 4
The relevant legislation is within Part 3 of the Children and Families Act 2014 and associated
regulations. It sets out the statutory special educational needs and disability (SEND) system
for children and young people aged 0 to 25 in England. The Act places duties on Local
Authorities to ensure:
reasonable adjustments for disabled children and young people; and
auxiliary aids and services to disabled children and young people.
a clearer focus on the views of parents, children and young people and their role in
decision- making. Guidance is now provided on the joint planning and commissioning
of services to ensure close co-operation between education, health services and
social care;
0-25 Education, Health and Care Plans(EHCP);
support that pupils and students should receive in education and training settings;
focus on support that enables those with SEN to succeed in their education and
make a successful transition to employment and adulthood;
parents can express a preference for any maintained school, academy, free school
or non-maintained school.
5.2 SEND Provision
Most children and young people with special educational needs and disability (SEND) have
their needs met in mainstream provision and Newham has a strong legacy and commitment
towards inclusion. Around 90% of high needs funded pupils with autism attend mainstream
schools, including resourced provision. The high levels of need of a small number of children
and young people require even more support and expertise than can be offered in
mainstream and resourced provision. The existing provision at JFK School is at capacity
and more pupils are having to attend Out of Borough (OOB) provision due to the lack of
suitable places.
In their ‘Do the Maths 2018’ report London Councils highlighted that London will require
approximately 2,340 specialist secondary school places over the next five years. The report
states the average capital cost of providing a specialist school place is £67,043 (three times
the cost of an average mainstream place at £23,641), with some specialist places for severe
complex needs costing £300,000 per place.5
The increases in the school aged population are well documented rising by around 21% from
2010 to 2018. Over the same period, the increase in high needs funded pupils has risen by
4
Special educational needs and disability code of practice: 0 to 25 years – January 2015
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/398815/SEND_Code_of_Pra
ctice_January_2015.pdf
5
https://www.londoncouncils.gov.uk/our-key-themes/children-and-young-people/education-and-school-
places/do-maths-2017/special
36 | P a g e88% and analysis shows that the highest rise is ASD funded pupils increasing by 278%. Out
of Borough (OOB) ASD places have increased by 54 pupils. The next highest increase was
SEMH that increased by 11 pupils.
The current high number of primary ASD pupils will transfer into the secondary sector in a
similar way as also seen in the mainstream sector. Based on school census data only,
without any further increases in numbers and a year 6 to year 7 transfer rate of 100%, this
would see the numbers on roll in schools increase by around 53% over the next 10 years.
There are two special schools in Newham as shown in Table 1.
Table 1 - Summary of special school provision
Age Range Year Groups Specialism
John F Kennedy Special
5 to 19 15 PMLD/ASD5
School Academy
Eleanor Smith School and
Primary Support Service - 5 to 16 12 SEMH6
Academy
In Newham, there are 21 specialist resource provisions based in a nursery and mainstream
schools providing 315 places, as shown in Table 2.
Table 2 – Current Resource Provision
School Name & Cohort Provision Commissioned RP
Need Places
Brampton Primary SCLN 10
Calverton Primary ASD 21
Cleves Primary SCLN 23
Colegrave Primary SCLN 14
Cumberland Secondary ASD 20
Eastlea Secondary SCLN 14
Essex Primary ASD 14
Gainsborough Primary ASD 14
Gallions Primary ASD 8
Langdon ASD 26
Lister Secondary HI 18
Little Ilford Secondary ASD 5
Nelson Primary SSLD 14
North Beckton Primary SCLN 14
Ravenscroft Primary ASD 10
Ronald Openshaw Nursery SCLN 6
Selwyn Primary HI 32
Sir John Heron Primary SCLN 14
Stratford Secondary ASD 6
5
PMLD Profound and Multiple Learning Disabilities and ASD Autistic Spectrum Disorder
6
SEMH – Social Emotional and Mental Health,
37 | P a g eStratford Secondary SCLN 5
Royal Docks Secondary SCLN 25
Tollgate Primary ASD 14
Ranelagh Primary ASD 8
Sandringham ASD 8
Newham College ASD 6
Totals 335
5.3 An inclusive approach to special educational needs and disability
(SEND)
The Council undertook a wide consultation in 2017 identifying key areas for development
across services, phases of education and broad areas of special educational needs and
disabilities. The findings formed the Best for All strategy that is part of a wider Council
strategy to improve education, health and well-being outcomes for children and young
people. This strategy provides a blueprint for our providers and all those working in the local
authority and health services with children, young people and their families. This includes
working with education providers and universal services where necessary to be inclusive of
children and young people with special educational needs or who are disabled.
5.4 SEND Needs analysis
There has been significant growth in the number of children and young people with high
level of needs, particularly complex autism, and we are forecasting significant further growth
particularly as the current increase in primary numbers moves into secondary.
Between 2010 and 2018 the number of high needs funded pupils has risen by 88%. The
highest rise is Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) funded pupils (increasing by 278%). There
are 68 pupils placed out of borough, a rise of 113% in the last five years.
The trend for funded ASD pupils suggests a further increase of around 800 pupils to
2025. Around 90% of high needs funded pupils with autism attend mainstream schools,
including resourced provision. If this proportion is maintained, this would mean 720 more
pupils in mainstream and resourced provision; and 80 more pupils attending out of borough
settings and borough special school places.
5.5 SEND Emerging plans
The high level of inclusion that Newham is well known for both nationally and internationally
is being maintained. This is supported by the 34 additional resource provision places made
for September 2018 rising to an additional 105 places in the next two to three years; 79 of
those places are specifically for ASD children and young people. However no additional ASD
places have been secured in the secondary sector.
Reducing the number of pupils attending schools in other local authorities and independent
settings is an essential part of the approach. This would at the same time reduce in real
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