PRIMARY ELECTION PROFILE - NALEO Educational Fund
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2 0 2 0 PRIMARY ELECTION PROFILE
N E VA D A D E M O C R AT I C C A U C U S E S :
Saturday, February 22, 2020*
ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: SIX
TOTAL POPULATION (2018): LATINO POPULATION (2018):
3,034,392 881,145
*The Republican Party will not hold a 2020 Presidential
nomination Caucus in Nevada.
Between 1992 and 2012, Nevada has been one of the nation’s Presidential election “swing” states,
with its voters favoring President Bill Clinton (D) in 1992 and 1996, and President George W. Bush (R)
in 2000 and 2004. Each of those elections was also extremely close, with the winner’s margin of
victory ranging between 1 and 4%. In 2008 and 2012, President Barack Obama (D) won the state
more decisively, with 13% and 7% margins of victory, respectively. Political observers also view
Nevada as a bellwether state – between 1992 and 2012, its voters have favored the Presidential
victor in every general election. However, in 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) defeated Donald Trump (R)
in Nevada.
Before 2008, Nevada generally held primary elections to choose its delegates to the political party
conventions. Political party and state officials promoted the adoption of caucuses for the selection
of delegates early in the primary season, to advance the state’s prominence in the nomination
process, and in 2008, the parties held their first caucuses.
Nevada’s growing Latino electorate has played an important role in both the nomination process
and Presidential elections. Some political observers believe that Latino support in the 2008
Nevada Democratic caucus for Hillary Clinton contributed to her victory over Barack Obama.
Moreover, following President Bush’s victory in 2004, Latinos helped “flip” Electoral College votes
to President Obama in the 2008 general election.
In 2010, Senator Harry Reid (D) won an extremely close re-election contest against challenger
Sharron Angle (R) with barely 50% of the vote. According to the 2010 Election Eve poll by research
firm Latino Decisions, 90% of Latinos supported Senator Reid; the Latino vote likely contributed
to his re-election.2 0 2 0
Similarly, in 2016, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D) defeated Joe Heck (R), 47% to 45%. The 2016
Latino Decisions Election Eve poll indicated that 79% of Latinos supported Senator Cortez Masto,
with political observers believing the Latino vote was critical for her victory. In the 2016 Presidential
contest, Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump by a relatively small margin, 48% to 46%. The 2016
Latino Decisions Election Eve poll indicated that 81% of Nevada Latinos supported Hillary Clinton
over Donald Trump, and this support likely contributed to Clinton’s victory in the state. Generally,
Latino voters are helping to re-shape the partisan landscape of Nevada politics. With Latinos
comprising 16% of the state’s registered voters, they will play an integral role in Election 2020.
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
As of this writing, Nevada’s 4th Congressional District is the only U.S. House of Representatives
contest with a competitive Latino candidate in the state’s June 9th primary. Contenders for
the Republican nomination to the seat include Latino Marine and Navy veteran and reservist
Charles Navarro, who will face Nye County Commissioner Leo Blundo, Army veteran
Leo Dunson, former Nevada State Assemblymember Jim Marchant, Air Force veteran and business
owner Sam Peters, nurse Catherine Prato, small business owner Randi Reed, business owner
Lisa Song Sutton, and small business owner Rebecca Wood. The victor in this contest will have a
tough battle against incumbent U.S. Rep. Steven Horsford (D) in the general election.
SHARE OF TOTAL
NE VA DA’S POPULATION POPULATION
L AT INO All Latinos 881,145 29%
POPUL AT ION: Latino Adults 597,798 25%
2 018 Latino
Voting-Age Citizens
412,166 20%
NE VA DA’S
L AT INO
Total Registered Voters 1,540,645
Latino Registered Voters 239,031
ELEC TOR AT E
Nearly one of every six Nevada Latino Share of
15.5%
registered voters (15.5%) is Latino. Registered Voters
* as of October 20192 0 2 0
PARTY AFFILIATION
Latinos are far more likely to be Democrats than non-Latinos, with 55% of Latinos affiliating with the
Democratic Party, compared to 38% of non-Latinos. Latinos are less likely to be Republicans than
the non-Latino electorate, and slightly more likely not to be affiliated with either major political
party. One of every six Latino registered voters (16%) is Republican, compared to 33% of non-Latinos.
Nearly one-third of Latinos (29%) are not affiliated with either major party, compared to 28% of
non-Latinos.
LATINO NON-LATINO
Other Other
29% 28% Democrat
Democrat 38%
55%
Republican
16% Republican
33%
AGE
Nevada’s Latino registered voters tend to be younger than non-Latinos, with 18-24-year-olds
comprising 20% of registered Latinos, compared to 10% of non-Latinos. Similarly, 25% of Latino
registered voters are 25-34-year-olds, compared to 17% of non-Latinos. In contrast, 50% of
non-Latino registered voters are 50 and older, compared to 31% of Latinos.
LATINO NON-LATINO
65+ 18-24
11% 18-24 10%
20% 65+
25% 25-34
50-64 17%
20%
25-34
25% 50-64 35-49
35-49 25% 23%
24%2 0 2 0
VOTER TURNOUT
Latino voter turnout in Nevada Presidential elections
grew from 72,000 in 2004 to 196,000 in 2016, an
increase of 172%.
VOTING AGE CITIZENS REGISTERED VOTERS ACTUAL VOTERS
400,000
346,000
350,000
302,000
300,000
228,000 234,000
250,000
181,000
200,000
151,000
131,000 196,000
150,000
157,000
83,000
100,000
119,000
50,000
72,000
0
2004 2008 2012 20162 0 2 0
LATINOS IN NEVADA ELECTED OFFICE
In 2019, 29 Latinos served in elected office in Nevada, with 66% serving at the local level, including
county, municipal, school board, judicial and law enforcement, and special district officials.
L AT INO S IN
NE VA DA E L E C T E D OF F ICE :
1996–2019
1996 2003 2011 2017 2019
U.S. Senators 0 0 0 1 1
U.S. Representatives 0 0 0 1 0
State Officials 0 1 2 1 0
State Legislators 1 2 9 9 9
Local Officials 2 5 8 13 19
TOTAL 3 8 19 25 29
For more information about the NALEO Educational Fund’s Election 2020 publications,
please contact Dorian Caal at dcaal@naleo.org or (213) 765-9450.2 0 2 0 SOURCES NALEO Educational Fund, 2019 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials. This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey (ACS), 1-year estimates. The ACS is conducted every year and is an on-going survey of a sample of the population which produces estimates of various population characteristics. U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey (CPS), Voting and Registration in the Elections of November: 2004-2016. The CPS data used in this report and the survey from which they are derived are subject to certain limitations. First, actual voter turnout and registration may be overestimated by the CPS, because individuals may tend to over-report electoral participation. Additionally, the CPS is a national survey, and estimates derived for smaller sub-groups within the national population may be based on relatively small sample sizes. Consequently, the margin of error associated with estimates of voting and registration for these sub-groups is greater than the margin associated with the national population or larger population sub-groups. NGP Voter Activation Network (VAN) voter file data, October 2019. VAN data are subject to certain limitations relating to the collection, entry, maintenance and analysis of voter file records. All estimates are of Registered Active Voters. Latino Decisions, 2010 and 2016 Election Eve polls, https://latinodecisions.com/polls-and-research/.
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