THE 2020 NATIONAL LATINO ELECTORATE SURVEY - June 25, 2019 - UnidosUS
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
THE 2020 NATIONAL LATINO
ELECTORATE SURVEY
June 25, 2019Methodology
2
N=1,854 eligible Latino voters
Registered N=1,506
Eligible not registered N=348
Field Dates: June 1-14, 2019
English or Spanish, according to respondent preference
Blended sample, online and live telephone interviews
Margin of error of + / - 2.3 percentage pointsKey Topics
3
Emphasis on what Latino voters want
Candidate Qualities
Issues candidates prioritize
Policies they champion
Factors driving those priorities
Party Support and 2020 VoteCANDIDATE QUALITIES AND ISSUE AGENDA
Important Candidate Qualities
5
Which of the following Percent responding trait is “very important” in a presidential candidate
traits do you think are
important in a Values diversity and brings people together 76%
presidential
Fights for my priorities, willing to work with both parties, compromise to get things done 74%
candidate?
Has realistic, achievable policy ideas and goals 73%
[Follow up if
‘important’, is that Has specific plans addressing the issues Latino voters say are important to them 61%
very important or just
somewhat ?] Has bold and ambitious policy ideas, even if they are hard to achieve quickly 56%
Has prior experience in elected office 54%
Fights for my priorities and will not compromise, even if it means nothing gets done 51%
Has business or private sector work experience 41%
Speaks Spanish 33%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Important Candidate Qualities
6
Which trait do you think is the MOST important in a presidential candidate?
Values diversity and brings people together 25%
Fights for my priorities, compromise to get things done 18%
Has realistic, achievable policy ideas and goals 18%
Has prior experience in elected office 12%
Bold policy ideas, even if hard to achieve quickly 9%
Has business or private sector work experience 7%
Fights for my priorities, won't compromise, even if nothing gets done 5%
Specific plans addressing issues important to Latino voters 3%
Speaks Spanish 2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Issues Ideal Candidate Would Address
7
As you may know, Jobs and the economy 23%
next year, in 2020,
there will be a Health care 17%
presidential election.
Immigration 15%
In your opinion, what
issues would an Gun violence 8%
ideal presidential
candidate focus on Climate change 7%
most? In order of
importance, what are Education 6%
your top three?
Discrimination and racism 6%
First issue mentioned Corruption in government 6%
illustrated.
Unify the country 6%
Housing 3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Issues Ideal Candidate Would Address
8
Ranked Issue Ranked Issue Ranked Issue % Cited Issue
As you may know, 1st Priority 2nd Priority 3rd Priority in their top 3
next year, in 2020,
there will be a Health care 17% 18% 12% 46%
presidential election. Jobs and the economy 23% 11% 9% 43%
In your opinion, what
issues would an ideal Immigration 15% 16% 11% 42%
presidential candidate
focus on most? In Education 6% 12% 11% 29%
order of importance,
Gun violence 8% 10% 11% 28%
what are your top
three? Discrimination and racism 6% 9% 10% 24%
Corruption in government 6% 7% 8% 22%
Climate change 7% 7% 7% 21%
Unify the country 6% 4% 7% 17%
Housing 3% 6% 4% 13%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Factors Driving Priority Issues
9
What is it about
Among those who ranked jobs and economy first priority
[issue ranked first Unemployment, not enough jobs, job insecurity
among issue
priorities] that Low pay, wages not high enough
concerns you?
Among those who ranked health care first priority
Too expensive, unaffordable
Cover more people
Among those who ranked immigration first
Stop separating families, abuses/children in cages
Stop deportations
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Factors Driving Priorities on
Candidate Quality and Issues
10
Which of the following statements are true for you and/or your family? Yes Sometimes No
I am frustrated with how President Trump and his allies treat
immigrants and Latinos, worry it will get worse if Trump is re-elected.
66 12 21
I am concerned that Social Security will not be around when I retire,
63 11 25
or that my current benefits could be cut.
I worry that I, or my children will not be able to afford college, or pay
off student loans.
56 14 30
It seems like politicians in Washington DC ignore people like me,
55 25 18
they take Latino voters for granted.
I am concerned that I may not be able to afford to own a home, or
51 12 35
afford to keep the one I have now.
Sometimes I delay or skip doctor visits or buying medicine because it
46 15 38
is too expensive.
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Factors Driving Priorities on
Candidate Quality and Issues
11
78% frustrated with Trump on a personal level
Yes Sometimes No
I am frustrated with how President Trump and his allies treat
immigrants and Latinos, worry it will get worse if Trump is re-elected. 66 12 21
I am concerned that Social Security will not be around when I retire,
or that my current benefits could be cut.
63 11 25
I worry that I, or my children will not be able to afford college, or pay
off student loans.
56 14 30
It seems like politicians in Washington DC ignore people like me,
55 25 18
they take Latino voters for granted.
I am concerned that I may not be able to afford to own a home, or
51 12 35
afford to keep the one I have now.
Sometimes I delay or skip doctor visits or buying medicine because it
46 15 38
is too expensive.
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Factors Driving Priorities on
Candidate Quality and Issues
12
I am frustrated with how President Trump and his allies treat
immigrants and Latinos, worry it will get worse if Trump is re-elected.
66 12 21
I am concerned that Social Security will not be around when I retire,
or that my current benefits could be cut.
63 11 25
I worry that I, or my children will not be able to afford college, or pay
56 14 30
off student loans.
It seems like politicians in Washington DC ignore people like me,
55 25 18
they take Latino voters for granted.
I am concerned that I may not be able to afford to own a home, or
51 12 35
afford to keep the one I have now.
Sometimes I delay or skip doctor visits or buying medicine because it
is too expensive. 46 15 38
61% missing or delaying medical care because of costs
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Issues and Candidate Support
13
Would you be more or less likely to vote for candidate who supported:
Increase minimum wage 59 27 9 4
Make sure insurance companies cannot refuse people due to pre-existing 58 30 7 4
Provide more federal funding for K-12 public education 58 31 7 3
Free tuition at public two- and four year colleges and universities. 57 26 10 7
Make Medicare an insurance option anyone can buy no matter their age 53 32 10 3
Increase funding for affordable housing 51 33 10 6
Paid family and sick leave policies 49 35 9 6
Increase federal funding for mental health services 49 37 9 5
Student loan debt forgiveness for those with college loans 47 29 15 8
Tax credits and federal funding for child care programs 42 37 14 6
Make Medicare an insurance plan everyone must buy, no matter their age 32 30 17 21
Much more likely for Somewhat more Somewhat less Much less
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Immigration Policy Priority
14
Which immigration issue do you want a new President to address first?
Stopping the Trump Administration’s practice of separating
33%
undocumented children from their parents at the border.
Comprehensive immigration reform that provides an earned path
to citizenship for nearly 11 million undocumented people living 27%
and working in the United States.
Pass laws that protect undocumented immigrants who were
brought to the United States as children and grew up here, 25%
such as “Dreamers” or DACA recipients.
Building a 1,900-mile wall between the entire border
15%
between the United States and Mexico.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%PARTY SUPPORT
Baseline Republican Support
16
Have you ever voted
for a Republican
candidate in past
elections?
Yes
37%
No
63%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Baseline Republican Support
17
Have you ever voted
for a Republican
candidate in past
elections?
How much of that 63% is
available to Republicans?
No
63%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Republican Support Among Latinos
Who Have Voted GOP in Prior Elections
18
[Among those who
have never voted Not
sure
Republican in past 5% Yes, would
elections.] consider voting
GOP if they
Would you consider treated Latinos
No, would not
voting for a with respect..
consider voting
Republican candidate 60%
GOP
who spoke out against 35% (38% of all Latino Voters)
President Trump’s
harsh policies, treated (22% of all Latino voters)
Latinos with respect,
and worked to create
more humane
immigration laws?
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Republican Support Among Latinos
Who Have Not Voted Republican
19
Have you ever voted for a Republican candidate in [Among the non-GOP voters] Would you consider voting for a
past elections? Republican candidate who spoke out against President Trump’s
harsh policies, treated Latinos with respect, and worked to
create more humane immigration laws?
Yes
37%
No
63% Yes, would
Prior GOP consider voting
voter 37% GOP
38%
No, would not
Not sure consider voting
3% GOP 22%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Baseline Republican Support
20
Have you ever voted
for a Republican
candidate in past
elections?
How firm is that 37% prior GOP
vote, can Republicans count on it?
Yes
37%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Republican Support Among Latinos
Who Have Voted GOP in Prior Elections
21
[Among those who have
voted for Republicans in
past elections]. Which of
these two statements do
you agree with most? It is hard to support
GOP now but
A.) It is hard to support
would consider
Republican candidates
right now, but if I like the Republican again if they treated
Republicans got focused Party of today, they Latinos with
on issues I care about, don’t need to respect…
and treated Latinos with change anything 56%
respect, I would seriously 44%
consider Republican (21% of all Latino voters)
candidates again. (16% of all Latino voters)
- OR -
B. I like the Republican
Party of today, they don’t
need to change anything
to keep winning my vote.
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Republican Support Among Latinos
Who Have Voted GOP in Prior Elections
22
Have you ever voted for a Republican candidate [Among prior GOP voters] Which is closer to your view: a. It is
in past elections? hard to vote for Republicans today, but would consider if they
treated Latinos with respect….b. I like the Republican party of
today, they don’t need to change anything to win my vote.
Hard to support GOP
today, but would
Yes consider in future
37% 21%
No
63%
I like today's Have not
GOP 16% voted
Republican
63%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Participation in the 2020
Democratic Primaries and Caucuses
23
[Among Democrats].
Early next year Certain
Prob No
Democrats will hold not 4%
primary elections in 5%
each state to choose a
candidate to run against Chances Almost certain
President Trump in the 50-50 will vote
2020 presidential 18% 57%
election.
Thinking ahead to the
2020 Democratic Party
primaries and caucuses, Probably will vote
what are the chances 16%
you will participate and
vote to choose which
Democratic candidate
will run against
President Trump?
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%If the 2020 presidential election were held
today, would you vote for…
24
Definitely Dem Candidate 44.6%
Probably Dem Candidate 17.4% Definitely Trump
TOTAL DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE 62% 13%
Probably Definitely Democratic
Definitely Trump 12.5% Trump candidate
9% 45%
Probably Trump 8.8%
TOTAL TRUMP 21.3%
Not sure
17%
Probably
Democratic
candidate
17%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%If the 2020 presidential election were held
today, would you vote for…
25
Definitely Trump
13%
70% of DEMOCRATS “Definitely will Probably Definitely Democratic
vote for Democratic Candidate” Trump candidate
9% 45%
50% of REPUBLICANS “Definitely will
vote for Trump” Not sure
17%
Probably
Democratic
candidate
17%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%If the 2020 presidential election were held
today, would you vote for…
26
Trump Democratic Candidate
National 21 62
Arizona 14 65
California 18 67
Florida 29 53
Nevada 22 59
Texas 20 62
0 25 50 75 100
Source: Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Democrat 7 87
Likely Voter
Overall Vote for 24 68
50+ yrs 20 66
Democratic Candidate and Trump Spanish interview 17 66
(Sorted on Democratic Vote Share) Mexican 19 65
$40k-$80k 20 64
Democratic Candidate Trump Women 16 63
Puerto Rican 23 63
U.S. Born 22 63
$80k 36 58
South American 28 56
Less likely voter 18 55
Not registered 16 46
Independent 21 46
Cuban 37 44
Republican 18 71
27 0 20 40 60 80 100
Source: UnidosUS National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Republican 18 71
Cuban 37 44
Overall Vote for >$80k 36 58
Democratic Candidate and Trump College graduate 28 62
(Sorted on Trump Vote Share) South American 28 56
Men 28 61
Likely Voter
Trump 24 68
Democratic Candidate
30-49 yrs 23 62
Puerto Rican 23 63
English interview 22 61
Central American 22 61
U.S. Born 22 63
Total 21 62
18-29 yrs 21 59
Independent 21 46
Naturalized 20 61
Other Latino origin 20 61
50+ yrs 20 66
$40k-$80k 20 64
No college 19 62
Mexican origin 19 65
Less likely voter 18 55Key Findings
29
Ideal candidate will unify the country, has realistic policy goals, and
will get them done.
Ideal candidate will address issues that resonate at personal level for
this electorate: employment, wages, health care costs, immigration,
and basic respect for the community.
Republicans leaving votes on the table
Only 16% like today’s GOP
More than half prior GOP voters have hard time supporting the party today.
TBD Democrat leads Trump 62:21
Only 50% of self-identified Republicans certain they will vote for Trump.
But, only 57% of self-identified Dems certain to vote in primaries.Toplines, Deck, and Crosstabs posted at latinodecisions.com/recent-polls and http://publications.unidosus.org/handle/123456789/1958
Republican Support Among Latinos
Who Have Voted GOP in Prior Elections
31
Hard to support
GOP today, but would
consider again in future
21%
I like today's GOP Have not
16% voted
Republican
63%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%Republican Support Among Latinos
Who Have Not Voted Republican
32
Yes, would
consider voting
Prior GOP
GOP
voter 37%
38%
No, would not
Not sure consider voting GOP
3% 22%
Source: National Latino Electorate Survey June 2019; N=1,854 Margin of error +/- 2.3%You can also read
