Progress Report 2018 - Market ramp-up phase - German National Platform for Electric Mobility - Nationale Plattform ...

 
Progress Report 2018 - Market ramp-up phase - German National Platform for Electric Mobility - Nationale Plattform ...
Progress Report 2018 –
Market ramp-up phase

German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 - Market ramp-up phase - German National Platform for Electric Mobility - Nationale Plattform ...
German National Platform for Electric Mobility (NPE)
Progress Report 2018 - Market ramp-up phase - German National Platform for Electric Mobility - Nationale Plattform ...
Progress Report 2018
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Contents

1     Executive Summary                                           2

2     Electric mobility – an overall system                      10
2.1   User perspective                                           13
2.2   Energy and environment                                     14
2.3   Towns and cities                                           15

3     Review of progress to date                                 16
3.1   Leading supplier and lead market progress to date          17
      3.1.1 Market evolution and general framework               22
      3.1.2 Charging infrastructure and power grid integration   24
      3.1.3 Information and communication technology             27
      3.1.4 Norms, standardisation and certification             30
      3.1.5 Vehicle technology                                   32
      3.1.6 Battery technology                                   36
3.2   Employment across the entire value chain                   41
3.3   Showcase regions for electric mobility                     44

4     Outlook 2018–2025                                          48
4.1   Leading supplier and lead market outlook                   49
      4.1.1 Market evolution and general framework               51
      4.1.2 Charging infrastructure and power grid integration   52
      4.1.3 Norms, standardisation and certification             57
      4.1.4 Information and communication technology             61
      4.1.5 Vehicle technology                                   63
      4.1.6 Battery technology                                   68
4.2   Employment across the entire value chain                   71

5     The German National Platform for Electric Mobility –
      Background and working methods                             76

6     Glossary and footnotes                                     79
Progress Report 2018 - Market ramp-up phase - German National Platform for Electric Mobility - Nationale Plattform ...
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                                                           Executive Summary
Progress Report 2018 - Market ramp-up phase - German National Platform for Electric Mobility - Nationale Plattform ...
Progress Report 2018
                                                                                              Executive Summary     3

In this report, the German National Platform for Electric Mobility (NPE)
reviews the market ramp-up phase for electric mobility in Germany and looks
ahead beyond 2020 to the future milestones in its development up to 2025.
The NPE was founded in 2010 on the initiative of the Federal Government,
industry, the trade unions and representatives of civil society to facilitate
close cooperation in pursuit of their common goals. Germany aims to
become a leading supplier and – with one million electric vehicles on the
road – a lead market for electric mobility by 2020. It also aims to maintain
and increase current employment levels across the entire value chain.

Review of progress to date
Throughout the world, electric mobility is now an integral part of the growing
transformation of the mobility sector. The positive trend of electric mobility in
Germany is being further strengthened by the current debate concerning the preven-
tion of emissions in our towns and cities. Since the publication of the NPE’s 2014
Progress Report, electric mobility has continued to establish itself in Germany. The basic
requirements are now in place for a successful start to the mass market phase of
electric mobility.

Leading supplier
Germany is one of the world’s leading electric mobility suppliers. Germany’s
automotive manufacturers are achieving a higher or at least similar market share for
their electric vehicles compared to their conventional vehicles in the key global
automotive markets such as western Europe and Japan. In the United States, their
market share for electric vehicles is twice as high as for conventional vehicles. The
exception is the Chinese market, where the proportion of German electric vehicles is
significantly lower. The framework created by the Chinese government establishes a
quota for electric vehicles and promotes the production of electric vehicles by Chinese
companies. This means that German automotive manufacturers face major challenges if
they wish to increase their electric vehicle sales in China. Overall, the market is at
present growing strongly around the world, especially in countries that have intro-
duced targeted measures to support this growth.

Globally, one third of patents in the field of electric mobility come from Germany.
Germany’s success in the field of research and development continues to provide the
basis for innovative electric mobility products that are highly sought after around the
world. The investments that have been made are delivering concrete results. This
underlines the central importance of joint R&D funding by industry and the public
sector. Research and development strengthens the technology leadership of German
businesses and makes a key contribution to Germany’s position as a leading supplier.
The Federal Government provided €2.2 billion for R & D in the field of electric mobility
up to September 2017, while German industry is also set to maintain a consistent
commitment. The automotive industry and its suppliers alone will invest around €40
billion in the ongoing development of electric mobility up to 2020.
Progress Report 2018 - Market ramp-up phase - German National Platform for Electric Mobility - Nationale Plattform ...
Progress Report 2018
4   Executive Summary

                           The entire battery value chain is covered in Germany, except for the industrial
                           production of battery cells. German manufacturers cover every aspect of battery
                           systems, from the production of materials, components, modules and batteries to their
                           integration in vehicles. Batteries and battery cells play a critical role in the value chain
                           – the cell in particular has a significant influence on an electric vehicle’s performance
                           and cost. The requirements for battery cell production in Germany were identified by
                           the NPE and published in its Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production.
                           Following on from the Roadmap, a continuous monitoring programme of market trends
                           was initiated. The establishment of cell manufacturing in Germany is a business decision
                           that will require the political will to create the necessary conditions. German manufac-
                           turers and suppliers possess the technological know-how to produce battery cells
                           – there is no doubt that they can match their competitors from a technological
                           standpoint.

                           Lead market
                           Germany is closing the gap on the world’s leading electric mobility markets.
                           Approximately 131,000 electric vehicles had been registered in Germany by the
                           end of 2017. The package of measures introduced by the Federal Government and
                           industry contributed significantly to Germany achieving the world’s highest percentage
                           growth in new registrations in 2017, with a total of 54,617. Together with China,
                           Germany is also the market with the widest choice of commercially available electric
                           vehicles. Germany also compares well with other countries around the world in terms
                           of electric mobility’s share of the total market. This trend is in no small measure due to
                           the improved overall framework and to direct incentives such as the “environmental
                           bonus” purchase grant.

                           Since the last progress report in 2014, significant progress has been made in all areas
                           relating to the development of a lead market for electric mobility:

                           Since 2016, all new charging points in Germany must at the very least be fitted
                           with the Combined Charging System (CCS) as standard, as well as being barri-
                           er-free and accessible without any prior contractual commitment. The correspond-
                           ing Directive was due to be implemented across the EU by the end of 2017. The NPE’s
                           work over the past few years has thus contributed to the removal of some of the chief
                           obstacles to the success of electric mobility. The new directives and regulations should
                           mean that the plethora of different connector types and incompatible charging points
                           will soon be a thing of the past – CCS is now established in Europe, the US and other
                           key automotive markets. However, it will be important to ensure that these regulations
                           are implemented without exception in public places.

                           The stimulus packages for expanding the charging infrastructure that were
                           recommended by the NPE and implemented by the Federal Government have had
                           a clear impact. A provisional estimate put the number of charging points in Germany in
                           December 2017 at around 12,500, including more than 850 DC charging points. If all
                           the applications received for funding to expand the charging infrastructure are fully
                           realised, it will be possible to triple the number of AC charging points and achieve
                           almost a tenfold increase in the number of DC charging points between the start of the
                           charging infrastructure funding programme in 2017 and the end of 2018.

                                                                                   German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 - Market ramp-up phase - German National Platform for Electric Mobility - Nationale Plattform ...
Progress Report 2018
                                                                                             Executive Summary     5

This year, Germany will become the first country in the world to have a nation-
wide motorway charging network, comprising more than 400 locations, each with
multiple DC charging points. The high power charging technology that is already
appearing in some charging stations will significantly reduce charging times. Overall,
the coverage of Germany’s network of AC and DC charging points is getting better
and better.

The power grid is able to cope with electric vehicle charging. However, continued
market growth will result in new power distribution requirements that will call for local
power grid expansion and smart load management.

Outlook

Leading supplier
Research and development is continuing along the entire value chain. Technological
solutions continue to be developed, business models are being adapted and additional
research into new technologies is being accelerated. Further optimisation is required in
areas such as life cycle assessments, materials, functional integration and high power
charging. In order for Germany to become a leading global competitor, further efforts
are also necessary with regard to material, cell and battery technology and battery
production. To this end, we have identified some of the key strategic fields and devel-
oped concrete project outlines for R & D programmes.

German manufacturers will have 100 electric vehicle models on the market by
2020. Their stated intention to continue developing a comprehensive portfolio of
vehicle models is now being realised. All suppliers are expanding the number of vehicle
models they offer over and above German manufacturers’ existing ranges of everyday
vehicles.

German manufacturers’ share of the total global market continues to grow. The
growing availability of electric vehicles made by German manufacturers across all vehicle
segments will have a corresponding impact on their global market share. They will be
able to use the expertise gained from the manufacture of conventional vehicles to scale
up EV production.

As production volumes increase, raw material availability will become an increas-
ingly important issue. In order to create a more sustainable value chain, it will be
necessary to place greater emphasis on production, as well as R&D. The supply of
critical raw materials must be guaranteed. Second use solutions and recycling are
becoming increasingly important.

Lead market
Ensuring the quality of a functioning overall system will be key. Past efforts must be
sustained in order to ensure the continued development of the electric mobility market
and achieve the goal of a functioning overall system. The remaining gaps in the system
must also be closed as soon as possible. Electric mobility can only be successfully
Progress Report 2018 - Market ramp-up phase - German National Platform for Electric Mobility - Nationale Plattform ...
Progress Report 2018
6   Executive Summary

                           established as an integrated system encompassing vehicle supply, charging infrastruc-
                           ture, the energy system, services and the corresponding legal framework.

                           Current forecasts by the experts involved in the NPE suggest that the target of
                           one million electric vehicles is likely to be achieved in 2022. In its 2009 National
                           Electromobility Development Plan, the Federal Government set the target of having
                           one million electric vehicles on the road in Germany by 2020.

                           However, the actual market trend indicates that if the market continues to grow at the
                           current rate the target will probably not be met until 2022. There are several reasons
                           for this discrepancy with the NPE’s market ramp-up model. These include the delay in
                           the widespread availability of vehicle models, the later-than-expected implementation
                           of the funding programme for the expansion of the charging infrastructure, gaps in the
                           regulatory framework and the delayed introduction of the “environmental bonus”.
                           Going forward, customers will also need to be more successfully persuaded of the
                           attractiveness of the overall electric mobility system.

                           The market will continue to grow between now and 2025. By 2025, it is expected
                           that between 15 and 25 percent of new registrations worldwide will be electric
                           vehicles. In Germany, this will equate to a total of 2 to 3 million electric vehicles,
                           accounting for between 4 and 6.5 percent of all vehicles on the road.

                           The NPE calculates that in order to meet the target of one million electric vehicles
                           it will be necessary to install 70,000 public AC charging points and 7,100 public
                           DC charging points, as well as approximately one million private charging points.
                           The NPE’s market ramp-up scenario projects that 130,000 to 190,000 public AC
                           charging points and 13,000 to 19,000 public DC charging points will be required by
                           2025. Urgent action is already required to expand the private charging infrastructure.
                           The market ramp-up scenario calls for the installation of between 2.4 and 3.5 million
                           private charging points by 2025.

                           There are signs that the expected positive impact of electric mobility on employ-
                           ment for the period up to 2020 is materialising. Moreover, the NPE’s experts expect
                           this positive employment impact across the system as a whole to continue to 2025.
                           However, the pressure on employment levels will increase after this date, leading to
                           a reduction in the number of jobs in some individual segments, especially powertrain
                           production. In order to prevent negative employment effects, targeted investments
                           should therefore be made in leading-edge technologies and infrastructure for the
                           future mobility system.

                                                                                 German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018
                                                                                                        Executive Summary     7

Areas requiring urgent action

The implementation of support measures must be continued in order to sustain the high market
growth rate. The NPE therefore recommends the systematic continuation of three key market
incentives. Firstly, government and automotive manufacturers should continue to use the
“environmental bonus” to support the growth of the electric vehicle market until the target of
one million vehicles has been achieved. Secondly, the Electric Mobility Act (Elektromobilitätsgesetz
– EmoG) should be implemented systematically and universally by local authorities. And thirdly,
accessible, customer-specific communication about the overall electric mobility system must be
provided by all the relevant actors in order to increase customer acceptance.

Further funding calls for the expansion of the charging infrastructure are needed without delay.
Demand for a smart, connected, controllable charging infrastructure that is fit for the future will
continue to grow in both the public and private domains. The charging infrastructure should be
expanded in order to keep pace with demand. This will require further public and private
investment that should be implemented as rapidly as possible. As the coalition agreement of
Germany’s current government rightly states, the prompt establishment of funding programmes
to support the expansion and installation of private charging infrastructure will be especially
important. Support for a charging infrastructure capable of meeting demand in private vehicle
depots will also be necessary in order to promote the growth of the electric light commercial
vehicle market in the trade and fleet operator sectors.

Better legal and financial frameworks must be created for charging infrastructure located in
shared private parking facilities (e.g. facilities belonging to apartment blocks). The high costs
and complicated legal situation currently associated with the installation of private charging
points should be addressed through the establishment of practical building standards that at the
very least comply with the EU’s Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, as well as through the
appropriate amendments to Germany’s tenancy and residential property law.

Investment in grid infrastructure must be increased in order to create smart grids that
guarantee security of supply. The market players must agree to share forecast and real-time data
with each other, and it will also be necessary to develop and establish flexible regulations for
vehicle charging. These will be key to the use of smart grids, preventing peaks in demand and
enabling controlled charging, for example. It will be important to ensure that power grids are
smart enough to cope with the growing number of electric vehicles and guarantee security of
supply.

Further R&D expenditure in the field of vehicle technology will be required between 2018 and
2020. The combined expenditure of industry and the public sector should be in the region of
€1 billion.
Progress Report 2018
8   Executive Summary

                           R & D in the fields of material, cell and battery technology and production should be intensified.
                           This includes new materials for high-capacity and high-energy battery systems. Simulation,
                           modelling and data analytics will also play an increasingly important role in product and process
                           optimisation. At the same time, it will also be necessary to continuously monitor the global market
                           with regard to both the supply of critical raw materials and the growing demand in the market for
                           innovative battery systems.

                           Measures should be established to promote electric commercial vehicles and buses: Electric
                           vehicles can have many different applications, for instance as urban delivery vehicles or in bus
                           fleets. This means that over the coming years they can make a critical and sustained contribution
                           to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in our towns and cities.
                           Electric mobility also provides local authorities with the opportunity to make their own vehicle
                           fleets greener and more sustainable.

                           Selected funding initiatives and general measures that
                           have already been approved and implemented by the Federal
                           Government:

                           Environmental bonus
                           •• The “environmental bonus” introduced by the Federal Government in conjunction
                              with the automotive industry under the “Richtlinie zur Förderung des Absatzes von
                              Elektrofahrzeugen” (Regulation for the Promotion of Electric Vehicle Sales) is a
                              purchase grant worth €4,000 for battery electric vehicles and €3,000 for plug-in
                              hybrids. The grant may be claimed for vehicles with a net list price of up to €60,000.
                              The total available funding is capped at €1.2 billion, split 50/50 between the Federal
                              Government and the automotive industry.

                           Charging infrastructure funding programme
                           •• The Federal Government is investing €300 million between 2017 and 2020 to
                              expand the public charging infrastructure under the “Förderrichtlinie Ladeinfrastruk-
                              tur für Elektrofahrzeuge in Deutschland” (Funding Regulation for Electric Vehicle
                              Charging Infrastructure in Germany). The aim is to install a total of at least 15,000
                              charging stations throughout Germany, including 5,000 fast charging stations and
                              10,000 standard charging stations. Approximately €200 million is available for the
                              fast charging infrastructure and about €100 million for the standard charging
                              infrastructure. This funding will provide an important stimulus for the installation of a
                              charging infrastructure capable of meeting demand.

                           Motorway charging infrastructure
                           •• In conjunction with motorway services company Autobahn Tank & Rast GmbH, the
                              Federal Government will provide fast charging points and parking spaces for electric
                              vehicles at all 400 motorway service stations by the end of 2018.

                                                                                         German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018
                                                                                               Executive Summary     9

Immediate Action Programme Clean Air 2017–2020
•• At the second local authority summit (Kommunalgipfel) on 28 November 2017, the
   Federal Government launched the “Sofortprogramm Saubere Luft 2017–2020”
   (Immediate Action Programme Clean Air 2017–2020), a package of measures worth
   up to €1 billion aimed at improving air quality in towns and cities. €393 million has
   been allocated to transport electrification measures. Under this programme, the
   Federal Government will provide targeted support for the purchase of electric
   vehicles by people in Germany’s most polluted towns and cities.

Electric Mobility Act
•• The Electric Mobility Act (Elektromobilitätsgesetz – EmoG) of June 2015 defines the
   different types of electric vehicle as battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid
   electric vehicles (PHEV) and fuel cell electric vehicles. It allows local authorities to
   give preferential treatment to electric vehicles, especially with regard to parking
   spaces and charges and the use of restricted road spaces such as bus lanes.

Support for local authorities and fleets
•• The Federal Government is providing targeted cross-departmental support to help
   local authorities and fleet operators increase the number of electric vehicles at a
   local level. The aim is to grow the market for electric vehicles and the associated
   infrastructure in the strategic area of local mobility and logistics.

Monetary incentives and measures to remove legal obstacles
• The use of electric vehicles is also being promoted through tax incentives. The
  electricity provided by employers for employees to charge their electric cars is no
  longer treated as a non-cash benefit. Employees receive a reduced income tax rate
  on the benefit gained from their employer allowing them to charge their electric
  vehicle and the free or discounted use of chargers, as well as subsidies to use them.

• The vehicle tax exemption for battery electric vehicles has been extended to ten
  years and will now last until 31 December 2020.

• The “German Standardisation Roadmap Electric Mobility 2020” has been completed
  and approved. This document sets out the scope of the national and international
  work required in the field of norms and standardisation up to the start of the mass
  market phase. The work outlined in the Standardisation Roadmap is being actively
  supported and developed.

• The regulations for driving electric light commercial vehicles have been simplified.
  A derogation (until 31 December 2019) means that holders of Category B driving
  licences can drive electric vehicles of up to 4.25 tonnes rather than the usual limit
  of 3.5 tonnes. This makes it possible for electric commercial vehicles to compete
  with conventional vehicles in terms of load capacity, without being subject to the
  provisions of the “Berufskraftfahrerqualifikationsgesetz” (Professional Driver Qualifica-
  tion Act) which would require their drivers to possess a Category C1 driving licence.
2
                      Electric mobility –
                      an overall system

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Progress Report 2018
                                                                                      Electric mobility – an overall system   11

Electric mobility is one of the keys to a sustainable transformation that will
make mobility all around the world more climate- and environmental-
ly-friendly, less resource-intensive and more efficient. Founded in 2010 on
the initiative of the Federal Government, industry, the trade unions and
representatives of civil society, the German National Platform for Electric
Mobility (NPE) supports the development of a lead market in the fields
of infrastructure, products, standardisation and training. Representatives
of industry, academia, government, the trade unions and civil society draw
up general recommendations for creating an appropriate and competitive
overall environment. A consensus was reached that German industry should
aim to become a technology leader and leading supplier in the field of
electric mobility by 2020, and that Germany should also become a lead
market for electric mobility. The vision is to get one million electric vehicles
on the road in Germany by 2020, while ensuring that the high employment
levels across the value chain are maintained.

The quality of the overall electric mobility system will be key to
generating demand and achieving lead market status.

In this report, the NPE reviews the market ramp-up phase (2015–2017) for electric
mobility in Germany. It also looks ahead to the next stage in its development between
now and 2025, identifies areas requiring action and makes a number of corresponding
recommendations. Germany’s high-quality products, services and technological
solutions make it one of the world’s leading suppliers, while new electric vehicle
registrations are growing increasingly strongly. In order to establish a mass market for
electric vehicles, it will be necessary to embed the key areas of electric mobility – from
vehicle technology and charging infrastructure to the energy, environmental and urban
planning aspects – within a user-oriented overall system. The individual vehicle, energy
supply and charging infrastructure aspects and the associated frameworks must be
integrated with each other so that they can function as an overall system. The quality
of the overall electric mobility system will be key to generating demand.

Different needs require their own specific solutions. In a customer-friendly electric
mobility system, users should therefore be able to choose between a range of different
technologies. This is why the concept of electric mobility encompasses plug-in hybrids
(PHEVs) and range extenders (REEVs) as well as battery-powered vehicles (BEVs). One
feature common to all of these drive technologies is that the vehicles can be charged
directly from the electricity grid.
Progress Report 2018
12   Electric mobility – an overall system

                                     For Germany, electric mobility represents both an opportunity and a challenge in terms
                                     of maintaining and developing its position as an industrial, scientific and technological
                                     leader. The development of electric mobility is a challenge that affects the whole of
                                     society and is thus addressed across several different policy areas:

                                     The Federal Government has adopted the overall programme proposed by the NPE and
                                     launched a series of measures aimed at delivering a successful market ramp-up. Similar
                                     measures have been introduced by other lead markets that are also promoting the
                                     switch to electric mobility, for example the US, China, the Netherlands and Norway.

                                                                                            German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018
                                                                                       Electric mobility – an overall system   13

2.1 User perspective

Both customer feedback to manufacturers and the behaviour of users in the electric
mobility showcase regions (see p. 44 ff.) indicate that user attitudes towards electric
mobility are strongly influenced by the extent to which it meets their own personal
mobility needs. People’s subjective opinions about whether they will still be able to use
their usual routes and travel to particular destinations in an electric vehicle go a long
way towards determining whether or not they are willing to buy one. One reason for this
is undoubtedly the fact that, according to a survey on the future of mobility published
by German automobile club ADAC in spring 2017, the modal split – i. e. the percentage
of journeys made using different modes of transport – is set to remain more or less
unchanged over the next few years. In other words, it seems likely that in the medium
term people will continue to use their current preferred means of transport and that the
importance of private motor transport will remain undiminished for some years to come.

Potential users must be persuaded that they will be able to meet their usual mobility
needs with an electric vehicle, ideally without any loss of comfort or other benefits
compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. The two main factors that prevent
people from buying electric vehicles are their higher purchase price compared to
internal combustion engine vehicles and the perception that their range is too
limited. Other key requirements include realistic range specifications and reliable
battery life figures so that people can be confident they are making a sound invest-
ment. The third most important obstacle is the availability of private and public
charging infrastructure.

The opportunity to gain firsthand experience prior to purchasing their own electric
vehicle has a significant influence on user attitudes towards electric mobility. This might
involve using an electric vehicle as part of a car sharing scheme or for taxi and bus
journeys, for example. Using these services helps people to overcome their psychologi-
cal barriers and discover what electric mobility is really like in practice. Further
customer information roadshows are planned for 2018, for example in shopping
centres and selected municipalities.

It is important that these measures should build trust in electric mobility as an
environmentally sustainable and future-proof technology. This can be done by
communicating the vehicles’ carbon footprint and the electricity mix used to power
them. People’s attitudes are already changing: the public attaches far greater impor-
tance to environmental and climate protection issues in the transport sector than it did
even a few years ago.

It is therefore necessary to improve the overall framework for environmentally-friendly
alternative drive technologies.

Key themes for users:
• Range of attractive electric vehicles
• Access to public and private charging facilities
• Electric vehicles’ environmental and climate footprint
Progress Report 2018
14   Electric mobility – an overall system

                                     2.2 Energy and environment

                                     The transport sector is currently the second largest energy consumer in Germany.
                                     Electric mobility can replace fossil fuels for mobility applications and thus contribute to
                                     climate and environmental protection, especially through the use of renewable energy.

                                     Even today, taking their entire life cycle from manufacture to disposal into account
                                     together with the current electricity mix in Germany, electric vehicles’ CO2 emissions
                                     can be anywhere between 16 and 27 percent lower than comparable internal combus-
                                     tion engine vehicles, depending on which fuel they use and which types of vehicle are
                                     compared. This was among the findings of the study “Weiterentwicklung und vertiefte
                                     Analyse der Umweltbilanz von Elektrofahrzeugen” (Further Development and In-Depth
                                     Analysis of Electric Vehicles’ Environmental Footprint) carried out by the Heidelberg
                                     Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (IFEU) on behalf of the Federal Environ-
                                     ment Agency (UBA)1. Moreover, the steadily rising percentage of renewable energy in
                                     the electricity mix means that CO2 emissions will continue to fall, making electric
                                     vehicles even more climate-friendly compared to their conventional counterparts.

                                     In areas with a high traffic density, electric vehicles can significantly reduce emis-
                                     sions, since running them does not produce any emissions locally. Local NOX emissions
                                     are almost completely eliminated, for example. Furthermore, electric vehicles are
                                     quieter and emit fewer particulates. For instance, the brake energy recovery system
                                     reduces brake abrasion during braking, meaning that less particulate matter is released
                                     into the atmosphere. According to a rough estimate by the NPE, if one million electric
                                     vehicles were on the road, particulate emissions would be reduced by somewhere in
                                     the region of > 30 tonnes/year.

                                                                                             German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018
                                                                                        Electric mobility – an overall system   15

The intelligent integration of electric mobility in the energy cycle can make a sustaina-
ble contribution to the energy transition. In principle, it is possible to use locally
generated electricity – for example from domestic PV systems – directly at the point
where it is generated, i. e. without needing to feed it into the grid first. Moreover, a
controllable charging infrastructure allows electric vehicles to support grid stability by
ensuring that they are charged at times when there is a particularly large quantity of
renewable energy in the grid. By actively contributing to grid stability in this way,
electric vehicles can help to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades to cope with
fluctuations in the supply of renewable energy.

2.3 Towns and cities

Towns and cities are important actors in the overall electric mobility system without
which climate targets cannot be delivered. Electric mobility can play an important role
in the development and implementation of mobility strategies. Electric vehicles can
have many different applications, for instance as urban delivery vehicles or in fleets. This
means that over the coming years they can make a critical and sustained contribution
to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in our towns and
cities. Electric mobility also provides local authorities with the opportunity to make
their own vehicle fleets greener and more sustainable. This will require an integrated
planning approach that considers electric mobility in conjunction with all the other
means of sustainable urban transport.
3
Review of progress
to date

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Progress Report 2018
                                                                                           Review of progress to date   17

3.1 Leading supplier and lead market progress to date

Leading supplier
Germany is currently one of the leading global suppliers for electric mobility.
Germany’s automotive manufacturers are achieving a higher or at least similar market
share for electric vehicles compared to their market share for passenger cars as a whole
in all of the major markets such as western Europe, the US and Japan. Consumers
currently have a choice of at least 33 serial-produced electric vehicle models made by
German manufacturers (see illustration on p. 20/21). More than one out of every two
electric vehicles in western Europe – and over 66 percent in Germany – was built by
German manufacturers. In the United States, meanwhile, the equivalent figure of 16
percent compares favourably with a figure of around 8 percent for conventional
vehicles. The one exception is China, where 90 percent of the market is dominated by
domestic makes and electric vehicles built by German manufacturers only have a 2
percent market share.

The growth rate for the Chinese market has accelerated further in recent years. In
2017, what is by far the world’s largest market for electric cars grew by 72 percent,
with electric vehicles now accounting for 2.4 percent of the total car market (up from
1.4 percent in 2016). The measures taken by the Chinese government to promote the
production of electric vehicles by Chinese companies make it extremely difficult for
German automotive manufacturers to sell electric vehicles in China. In the United
States, the 26 percent year-on-year growth in electric vehicle sales represented a
decline compared to the previous year’s rate. Norway (+39 percent) remains the lead
market in Western Europe (+38 percent) – electric vehicles account for 39 percent of
all new registrations in the Norwegian market.

Electric vehicles have a 2.0 percent market share in western Europe, with Germany
(+117 percent) experiencing the strongest growth. Sales have increased the most in
those countries where targeted measures to support electric vehicles have been
introduced.
Progress Report 2018
18   Review of progress to date

                                  Since 2014, Germany has updated its overall framework for electric mobility and has
                                  now caught up with other countries around the world. Thanks in particular to the
                                  “environmental bonus”, the charging infrastructure expansion programme and a
                                  variety of tax breaks, Germany is no longer at such a strong disadvantage compared to
                                  other countries. However, the rather limited use of special usage rights and privileges
                                  relative to other nations should serve as an incentive to make further improvements to
                                  the regulations and their implementation.

                                  Between 2014 and 2018, research and development continued to provide the basis for
                                  innovation and a comprehensive electric mobility product portfolio across the entire
                                  value chain. The investments that have been made are delivering concrete results.
                                  Globally, about one third of all patents in the field of electric mobility now come from
                                  Germany.

                                  Government funding for research and development and industry’s commitment to R & D
                                  are thus absolutely vital. Research and development strengthens the technology
                                  leadership of German businesses and makes a key contribution to Germany’s position as
                                  a leading supplier.

                                  2 percent of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) in Germany are electric, the same
                                  proportion as in Norway. In Germany, German manufacturers enjoy a market share of
                                  80 percent. On average, electric vehicles’ share of the LCV market in western Europe
                                  is 0.9 percent. In the US (0.5 percent) and China (1.4 percent), electric vehicles still
                                  account for only a very small proportion of the light trucks market.

                                  Batteries are a key component of the value chain. With the exception of industrial battery
                                  cell production, German manufacturers cover every production stage, from the produc-
                                  tion of materials, components, modules and batteries to their integration in vehicles.

                                                                                         German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018
                                                                                          Review of progress to date   19

Furthermore, the review presented in the following chapters of the progress achieved
to date by Germany in the field of electric mobility shows that German industry covers
all the major links in the value chain, from information and communication technology
(Chapter 3.1.3) to vehicle technology (Chapter 3.1.5) and battery technology (Chapter
3.1.6). Consequently, Germany meets all the main requirements to be considered as a
leading supplier.

Lead market
Germany is closing the gap on the world’s leading electric mobility markets.
Common norms and standards, the integration of electric mobility into transport and
urban planning, and the use of “green” electricity will all be critical to the future
development of a lead market. Other key factors include the establishment of a public
charging infrastructure capable of meeting demand and a sufficiently high penetration
of the vehicle market by electric vehicles. Since the last progress report in 2014,
significant progress has been made in all areas relating to the development of a lead
market for electric mobility.

131,000 electric vehicles were registered in Germany between 2010 and 31 Decem-
ber 2017. The German market experienced particularly strong growth during the final
twelve months of this period. In terms of electric vehicles’ penetration of the overall
vehicle market, the package of measures introduced by the Federal Government and
industry was one of the main reasons for Germany achieving the highest percentage
growth rate (+ 117 percent) in the world in 2017. The situation in Germany thus
compares favourably to other countries around the world.

On 1 January 2018, a total of 110,615 electric vehicles (as defined by the Electric
Mobility Act) were registered in Germany, compared to 61,599 on 1 January 2017
(Source: Federal Motor Transport Authority).
Progress Report 2018
20   Review of progress to date

     This total can be broken down as follows:
                            Total electric vehicles as of 1 January 2018
      BEV passenger cars                                               53,861
      PHEV passenger cars                                              44,419
      Total BEV and PHEV passenger cars (vehicles relevant to NPE)                98,280
      BEV light commercial vehicles                                    11,898
      PHEV light commercial vehicles                                      38
      Total BEV and PHEV light commercial vehicles (relevant to NPE)              11,936
      Fuel cell electric vehicle passenger cars                          378
      Fuel cell light commercial vehicles                                 21
      Total electric vehicles incl. BEV, PHEV and FCEV                          110,615

                                       Compact class                   Medium size
                                       vehicles                        vehicles

                                         Audi A3
                                                                        BMW 330e
     Small cars                          Sportback e-tron

                                         BMW 225xe
                                                                        BMW 530e
                                         Active Tourer

                                                                        Kia Optima Sport-
      BMW i3                             Ford Focus Electric
                                                                        wagon Plug-in hybrid

      BMW MINI                                                          Kia Optima
                                         Ford C-Max Energi
      Countryman                                                        Plug-in hybrid

                                         Hyundai IONIQ                  MB C 350e
      Citroën C-ZERO
                                         Elektro                        Limousine

                                         Hyundai IONIQ                  MB C 350e                    Luxury vehicles
      Smart EQ fortwo
                                         Plug-in hybrid                 T-Modell

                                                                        MB E 350e
      Smart EQ forfour                   MB B 250e
                                                                        Limousine

      Smart EQ                                                          VW Passat GTE                  BMW 740Le
                                         Nissan Leaf
      fourtwoCabrio                                                     Limousine                      xDrive

      Mitsubishi                         Nissan                         VW Passat GTE
                                                                                                       BMW 740Le
      Electric Vehicle                   e-NV200 Evalia                 Variant

                                                                        Volvo V60 D6
      Peugeot i-ON                       Opel Ampera-e                                                 BMW 740e
                                                                        Twin Engine
                                                                        (Plug-in hybrid)
                                         Toyota Prius
      Renault ZOE                                                                                      MB S560e
                                         Plug-in hybrid                 Volvo S90 T8
                                                                        Twin Engine AWD
                                                                        (Plug-in hybrid)               Porsche Panamera
      VW e-up!                           VW e-Golf
                                                                                                       S E-Hybrid
                                                                        Volvo V90 T8
                                                                        Twin Engine AWD
      VW e-load up!                      VW Golf GTE                                                   Tesla Model S
                                                                        (Plug-in hybrid)

                                                                                           German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018
                                                                              Review of progress to date   21

                                           German manufacturers offer a wide range of 33
                                           models on the German market, supporting the
                                           assertion that Germany is both a leading supplier
                                           and a lead market. If vehicles made by non-German
SUVs                                       manufacturers are also counted, the choice of
                                           electric vehicles available in Germany is greater than
                                           anywhere else in the world. China is not included in
                                           this assessment, since their counting method does
                                           not meet the minimum technical standards of the
                                           other markets. In total, German consumers can
Audi Q7 e-tron
                                           currently choose between no fewer than 63 elec-
                                           tric vehicle models.
BMW X5 XDrive                                 BEV
40e
                                              REEX
                                              PHEV
Citroën E-MEHARI
                                              FCEV

Hyundai ix35
Fuel Cell

Kia Soul EV

Kia Niro
Plug-in hybrid

MB GLC FuelCell
                       Vans
MB GLC 350e

MB GLE 500e

Mitsubishi Outlander    Citroën Berlingo
Plug-in hybrid          Electric

Porsche Cayenne S       Nissan e-NV200
E-Hybrid                delivery van       Light commercial
                                           vehicles
                        Nissan e-NV200
Tesla Model X
                        Combi

Volvo XC60 T8           Peugeot Partner
Twin Engine AWD         Electric                                        Sports cars
(Plug-in hybrid)
                        Renault Kangoo      Streetscooter
                        Z. E.               Work (B14)
Volvo XC90 T8
Twin Engine AWD         Renault Kangoo      Streetscooter
(Plug-in hybrid)                                                         BMW i8
                        Maxi Z. E.          Work (D16)
Progress Report 2018
22   Review of progress to date

                                  Nevertheless, further work is required for Germany to achieve its goal of joining the
                                  world’s leading electric mobility markets. In particular, it will be crucial to persuade
                                  users of the quality of the overall electric mobility system.

                                  3.1.1 Market evolution and general framework
                                  The various measures initiated by government and industry have been key to the
                                  market growth achieved thus far and their continuation will be critical to further
                                  growth in the future. These initiatives include regulatory measures, support for the
                                  construction of the public charging infrastructure and monetary measures such as tax
                                  incentives and the “environmental bonus”:

                                  The tax incentives include changes to company car tax rules, vehicle tax exemption for
                                  electric vehicles and changes to the treatment of workplace electric vehicle charging
                                  as a non-cash benefit. These incentives should serve to promote wider uptake of
                                  electric vehicles.

                                  The 2015 Electric Mobility Act (EmoG) also provides for a number of user incentives
                                  that can be employed to encourage a targeted shift towards electric mobility in the
                                  local mobility context. More than two thirds of all new electric vehicle registrations up
                                  to October 2017 were fitted with the special “E” number plate for electric vehicles.
                                  The advantages conferred on electric vehicles by the Electric Mobility Act – such as
                                  parking privileges, special access rights and special usage rights – create a framework
                                  for making electric mobility more attractive at local level. However, this instrument has
                                  not yet been used to its full potential across Germany – the special privileges have only
                                  been implemented in less than 1 percent of local authority areas. An update on the
                                  situation will be published in July 2018.

                                  The environmental bonus also contributed to the pronounced increase in the number
                                  of new electric vehicle registrations in 2017. This financial incentive to buy electric

                                                                                          German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018
                                                                                          Review of progress to date   23

vehicles is funded 50/50 by industry and the Federal Government. Although the current
rate of approximately 4,600 applications a month means that take-up has been lower
than expected, the overall trend nevertheless clearly testifies to the effectiveness of
this measure. While the rise in the number of applications has plateaued at some
points, there have also been quarterly increases of over 30 percent. Total monthly
applications have quadrupled from 1,200 to 4,650 since the launch of the environmen-
tal bonus.

Stronger market growth has been held back by the continuing perception that the
charging infrastructure is inadequate, the current total cost of ownership and the
failure to adequately communicate the benefits of electric vehicles to customers. The
fact that the model used for the NPE’s calculations was based on the assumption that
both the charging infrastructure programme and the environmental bonus would start
earlier than they actually did goes some way towards explaining the slower than
expected growth in electric vehicle numbers. Nevertheless, with the exception of
2016, the number of new registrations almost doubled every year, with an even
stronger increase in 2017. As a result, the German market leads the world in terms of
the duration, gradient and continuity of its growth.

The market’s future development will also depend heavily on continued funding of
research and development across the entire value chain and on the comprehensive
programme to expand the public charging infrastructure, with the provision of
non-discriminatory access as required by the Charging Station Ordinance (Ladesäulen-
verordnung).
Progress Report 2018
24   Review of progress to date

                                  3.1.2 Charging infrastructure and power grid integration
                                  The stimulus packages for expanding the charging infrastructure recommended by the
                                  NPE and implemented by the Federal Government have had a clear impact. As a result,
                                  the expansion of the AC and DC charging infrastructure in Germany is currently on
                                  target. If all the applications received for funding to expand the charging infrastructure
                                  are fully realised, it will be possible to triple the number of standard charging points
                                  and achieve almost a tenfold increase in the number of DC charging points between
                                  the start of the programme in 2017 and the end of 2018.

                                  This year, Germany will become the first country in the world to have a nationwide
                                  motorway fast charging network, comprising more than 400 locations. Thanks to the
                                  funding programmes, progress is also being made in upgrading the charging infrastruc-
                                  ture with high power charging technology. High power charging (HPC) cuts charging
                                  times and enables long-distance mobility, providing high reliability for customers and
                                  significantly increasing acceptance of electric vehicles. Although the impact on power
                                  grids is at present still minimal, it is nonetheless essential to install a nationwide, smart,
                                  controllable charging infrastructure without delay, in order to ensure sustainable,
                                  cost-effective grid integration and prevent stranded investments.

                                  The standardised Combined Charging System (CCS) has become established as the
                                  leading system in Europe, the US, Korea and other key automotive markets. The new
                                  directives and regulations should mean that the plethora of different connector types
                                  and incompatible charging points will soon be a thing of the past. However, it will be
                                  important to ensure that these regulations are implemented without exception in
                                  public places.

                                                                                            German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018
                                                                                              Review of progress to date   25

Compared to 2014, the map of Germany for 2017 shows both an increase in overall
geographical coverage and a rise in the number of charging points in locations with
high electric vehicle numbers. The conditions for expanding the public charging infra
structure have improved significantly thanks to the Funding Regulation for Electric
Vehicle Charging Infrastructure. Overall, Germany’s charging network coverage is
getting better and better: as of June 2017, there were over 10,700 charging points in
Germany, including more than 530 DC charging points. A provisional estimate put
the number of charging points in December 2017 at around 12,500, including 850
fast charging points. The NPE welcomes the Federal Government’s use of a “location
tool” to ensure that future expansion of the charging infrastructure is even more
effectively targeted.

Between 2017 and 2020, the Federal Government is making a total of €300 million
available for public charging infrastructure through a variety of funding calls. Assuming
that public funding will on average account for 40 percent of total investment, this can
be expected to generate up to €450 million of additional private investment. This
means that, in total, as much as €750 million could potentially be invested in the
charging infrastructure.

In purely mathematical terms, this figure would meet the investment of €550 million
euros calculated by the NPE in 2014 as necessary to provide the 7,100 fast charging
points and 70,000 standard charging points required for one million electric vehicles.
However, since the rapid advances in DC charging technology could not have been
foreseen at the time, it was not possible to provide a definitive forecast of the required
investment level in 2014. It is therefore necessary to revisit the funding and investment
figures to check whether they need to be amended. Doing so will undoubtedly result in
a higher required investment figure. Further funding calls for the expansion of the
charging infrastructure are needed as soon as possible, and it will also be vital to ensure
that funding applications are processed more rapidly.

The high number of applications for the funding calls that have been launched to date
demonstrates that industry is very keen to invest. The first charging infrastructure
funding call, with funding of €30 million for standard charging points and 2,500 fast
charging points, was financially oversubscribed several times over. As the authority
responsible for approving the applications, the Federal Agency for Administrative
Services (Bundesanstalt für Verwaltungsdienstleistungen – BAV) received a total of
1,316 funding applications. Up to the end of January 2018, it approved some 7,500
standard charging points and over 1,300 fast charging points, of which over 200 had
a charging power of at least 100 kW. This means that 8,800 charging points were
approved in total.

This eagerness to invest led to the launch of a second funding call with a deadline
of October 2017. On this occasion, funding of €100 million was made available for
a further 12,000 standard charging points and 1,000 fast charging points with a
charging power of at least 150 kW. For the first time, the key criterion used to assess
applications was the cost of the charging power applied for.
Progress Report 2018
26   Review of progress to date

                                  The charging infrastructure programme’s two funding calls are expected to result in the
                                  number of AC charging points trebling to over 30,000 in total. This would amount to
                                  just under half of the NPE’s target of 70,000 charging points by 2020 for the one
                                  million electric vehicle scenario.

                                  Moreover, the current total of 530 DC charging points could increase almost tenfold
                                  to 4,600 in 2018 when all the charging points for which funding has been granted
                                  become operational. Applications were received for 2,000 DC and over 3,000 high
                                  power charging (HPC) charging points, leading to oversubscription of the original
                                  funding call, which was for 2,500 DC and 1,000 HPC charging points. Applications
                                  were thus received for three times the number of fast charging points that funding
                                  was available for. It should be pointed out, however, that many applicants applied for
                                  significantly more than the upper limit of €5 million that can be granted to any one
                                  applicant. These figures for the likely increase in AC, DC and HPC charging points
                                  provide a sound basis for calculating how many more charging points will need to
                                  be installed and how much additional funding will be required.

                                  As the coalition agreement of Germany’s current government rightly states, the prompt
                                  establishment of funding programmes to support the expansion and installation of
                                  private charging infrastructure will be especially important.

                                                                                        German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018
                                                                                                Review of progress to date   27

Power grid integration
At present, the impact on the power grid in Germany is minimal. The distribution grids
in regions with high proportions of renewable energy are already well developed.
Consequently, the moderate charging infrastructure presence in these regional grids is
generally non-critical. The same applies to the larger individual connections, e. g. to fast
charging stations that are routine business for the grid operators such as connections
with relatively high power requirements belonging to business and industrial custom-
ers. The installation cost subsidies for these charging stations provide customers with
an incentive to employ charging management systems.

Key measures requiring prompt implementation
• compulsory notification of grid operator for low-voltage charging equipment in
  keeping with technical connection requirements,
• ensuring the general controllability of charging equipment, so that if necessary it can
  be controlled e.g. via an online link,
• smart charging management,
• an appropriate regulatory framework that makes it possible to offer electric vehicle
  drivers attractive, market-oriented incentives to behave in a way that supports grid
  stability (e. g. in accordance with § 14a Energy Industry Act – EnWG), and
• simultaneous regulatory recognition of grid operator investments that comprise an
  economically efficient mix of grid expansion and the use of intelligent solutions.

Nevertheless, the interim findings of a joint BDEW and FNN meta-study on the integra-
tion of electric mobility with the power grid indicate that it is necessary to act now in
order to establish the basic conditions for enabling the future growth of the electric
mobility market without compromising grid stability.

The meta-study also indicates that while the introduction of grid management
measures can significantly reduce grid load in conventional grids, it is not enough on
its own in strong growth scenarios. Consequently, if the market penetration of electric
mobility increases, it will be necessary to further expand the grid, with all the additional
costs that this entails. The connection of a central, high-performance, medium-voltage
charging infrastructure will have a positive impact on the grid’s ability to cope with
electric mobility and on the cost of the required grid expansion.

Further research will be required to support continued market growth, especially into
separate simulations for different voltage levels and for urban and rural areas.

3.1.3 Information and communication technology

The digitalisation of electric mobility is set to accelerate rapidly over the next few years.
ICT will play a key role in enabling fast, multifaceted connectivity between the transport
and energy sectors. This will in turn lead to continuous growth in demand for smart,
connected, controllable charging infrastructure that is fit for the future, in both the
public and private domains.
Progress Report 2018
28   Review of progress to date

                                  In addition to the development and market establishment of (new) technical solutions
                                  in the shape of standard, interoperable IT interfaces and communication and data
                                  protocols, successful implementation will therefore also call for the corresponding
                                  data protection law and IT security requirements to be addressed right from the outset.
                                  Europe-wide harmonisation will be essential in order to meet the requirements of a
                                  European digital single market and safeguard Europe’s competitiveness.

                                  In the NPE’s view, it is important for the new ICT-based functionality that becomes
                                  available as a result of increasing digitalisation to prioritise customer-friendly charging.
                                  Factors such as simplicity, cost-effectiveness, sustainability and safety are all equally
                                  important and this should be taken into account when developing new functions.

                                  The NPE has been closely involved in providing input for various activities in this area,
                                  and has also identified new areas that will be important for the positive future
                                  development of electric mobility and its integration into the relevant ecosystems.

                                  Charging Station Ordinance
                                  The European Commission’s Directive 2014/94/EU on the deployment of alternative
                                  fuels infrastructure lays the foundations for the creation of a comprehensive, modern
                                  charging infrastructure for electric mobility. The EU Directive was transposed into
                                  German law in March 2016 in the shape of the Charging Station Ordinance (Ladesäu-
                                  lenverordnung). ICT is accorded a key role in enabling both customer-friendly charging
                                  and charging management (especially e-roaming) and the use of modern payment
                                  methods such as credit cards, online payment, etc.

                                  In addition, the supplementary provisions to the Charging Station Ordinance that
                                  were adopted in May 2017 establish standard rules both for the charging process
                                  itself and for billing. Public charging infrastructure customers will now have the option
                                  of charging and paying either on a contract basis or via an online payment system. As
                                  well as increasing acceptance and user-friendliness, this will also enable simple
                                  charging abroad, in keeping with the vision of pan-European mobility. Germany can
                                  lead the way in Europe in this area by driving the relevant integration processes.
                                  However, a coordinated approach, or at least the support of the other member states,
                                  will be both invaluable and necessary for successful cross-border e-roaming. A number
                                  of funding programmes for the expansion of the charging infrastructure have been
                                  initiated on the basis of these regulatory measures.

                                  Germany was one of the first European countries to fully implement the EU Directive
                                  within the corresponding deadline. Nevertheless, according to the assessment
                                  published by the European Commission in November 2017, significant work is still
                                  required to ensure that an adequate charging infrastructure is in place by 2020.
                                  Furthermore, the Charging Station Ordinance provides for different types of static data
                                  to be collected from the public charging infrastructure (e. g. location, charging type
                                  and power, payment method, etc.) and sent to the Federal Network Agency (Bun-
                                  desnetzagentur – BNetzA). While the NPE supports and welcomes this initiative, it also
                                  believes that the collection of data for purely statistical purposes is insufficient to
                                  achieve the desired results. There is both the demand and the need in the market for
                                  a central charging station register for all public charging points in Germany. Moreover,

                                                                                           German National Platform for Electric Mobility
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