Progress Report 2018 - Market ramp-up phase - German National Platform for Electric Mobility - Nationale Plattform ...
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Progress Report 2018 1 Contents 1 Executive Summary 2 2 Electric mobility – an overall system 10 2.1 User perspective 13 2.2 Energy and environment 14 2.3 Towns and cities 15 3 Review of progress to date 16 3.1 Leading supplier and lead market progress to date 17 3.1.1 Market evolution and general framework 22 3.1.2 Charging infrastructure and power grid integration 24 3.1.3 Information and communication technology 27 3.1.4 Norms, standardisation and certification 30 3.1.5 Vehicle technology 32 3.1.6 Battery technology 36 3.2 Employment across the entire value chain 41 3.3 Showcase regions for electric mobility 44 4 Outlook 2018–2025 48 4.1 Leading supplier and lead market outlook 49 4.1.1 Market evolution and general framework 51 4.1.2 Charging infrastructure and power grid integration 52 4.1.3 Norms, standardisation and certification 57 4.1.4 Information and communication technology 61 4.1.5 Vehicle technology 63 4.1.6 Battery technology 68 4.2 Employment across the entire value chain 71 5 The German National Platform for Electric Mobility – Background and working methods 76 6 Glossary and footnotes 79
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Progress Report 2018 Executive Summary 3 In this report, the German National Platform for Electric Mobility (NPE) reviews the market ramp-up phase for electric mobility in Germany and looks ahead beyond 2020 to the future milestones in its development up to 2025. The NPE was founded in 2010 on the initiative of the Federal Government, industry, the trade unions and representatives of civil society to facilitate close cooperation in pursuit of their common goals. Germany aims to become a leading supplier and – with one million electric vehicles on the road – a lead market for electric mobility by 2020. It also aims to maintain and increase current employment levels across the entire value chain. Review of progress to date Throughout the world, electric mobility is now an integral part of the growing transformation of the mobility sector. The positive trend of electric mobility in Germany is being further strengthened by the current debate concerning the preven- tion of emissions in our towns and cities. Since the publication of the NPE’s 2014 Progress Report, electric mobility has continued to establish itself in Germany. The basic requirements are now in place for a successful start to the mass market phase of electric mobility. Leading supplier Germany is one of the world’s leading electric mobility suppliers. Germany’s automotive manufacturers are achieving a higher or at least similar market share for their electric vehicles compared to their conventional vehicles in the key global automotive markets such as western Europe and Japan. In the United States, their market share for electric vehicles is twice as high as for conventional vehicles. The exception is the Chinese market, where the proportion of German electric vehicles is significantly lower. The framework created by the Chinese government establishes a quota for electric vehicles and promotes the production of electric vehicles by Chinese companies. This means that German automotive manufacturers face major challenges if they wish to increase their electric vehicle sales in China. Overall, the market is at present growing strongly around the world, especially in countries that have intro- duced targeted measures to support this growth. Globally, one third of patents in the field of electric mobility come from Germany. Germany’s success in the field of research and development continues to provide the basis for innovative electric mobility products that are highly sought after around the world. The investments that have been made are delivering concrete results. This underlines the central importance of joint R&D funding by industry and the public sector. Research and development strengthens the technology leadership of German businesses and makes a key contribution to Germany’s position as a leading supplier. The Federal Government provided €2.2 billion for R & D in the field of electric mobility up to September 2017, while German industry is also set to maintain a consistent commitment. The automotive industry and its suppliers alone will invest around €40 billion in the ongoing development of electric mobility up to 2020.
Progress Report 2018 4 Executive Summary The entire battery value chain is covered in Germany, except for the industrial production of battery cells. German manufacturers cover every aspect of battery systems, from the production of materials, components, modules and batteries to their integration in vehicles. Batteries and battery cells play a critical role in the value chain – the cell in particular has a significant influence on an electric vehicle’s performance and cost. The requirements for battery cell production in Germany were identified by the NPE and published in its Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production. Following on from the Roadmap, a continuous monitoring programme of market trends was initiated. The establishment of cell manufacturing in Germany is a business decision that will require the political will to create the necessary conditions. German manufac- turers and suppliers possess the technological know-how to produce battery cells – there is no doubt that they can match their competitors from a technological standpoint. Lead market Germany is closing the gap on the world’s leading electric mobility markets. Approximately 131,000 electric vehicles had been registered in Germany by the end of 2017. The package of measures introduced by the Federal Government and industry contributed significantly to Germany achieving the world’s highest percentage growth in new registrations in 2017, with a total of 54,617. Together with China, Germany is also the market with the widest choice of commercially available electric vehicles. Germany also compares well with other countries around the world in terms of electric mobility’s share of the total market. This trend is in no small measure due to the improved overall framework and to direct incentives such as the “environmental bonus” purchase grant. Since the last progress report in 2014, significant progress has been made in all areas relating to the development of a lead market for electric mobility: Since 2016, all new charging points in Germany must at the very least be fitted with the Combined Charging System (CCS) as standard, as well as being barri- er-free and accessible without any prior contractual commitment. The correspond- ing Directive was due to be implemented across the EU by the end of 2017. The NPE’s work over the past few years has thus contributed to the removal of some of the chief obstacles to the success of electric mobility. The new directives and regulations should mean that the plethora of different connector types and incompatible charging points will soon be a thing of the past – CCS is now established in Europe, the US and other key automotive markets. However, it will be important to ensure that these regulations are implemented without exception in public places. The stimulus packages for expanding the charging infrastructure that were recommended by the NPE and implemented by the Federal Government have had a clear impact. A provisional estimate put the number of charging points in Germany in December 2017 at around 12,500, including more than 850 DC charging points. If all the applications received for funding to expand the charging infrastructure are fully realised, it will be possible to triple the number of AC charging points and achieve almost a tenfold increase in the number of DC charging points between the start of the charging infrastructure funding programme in 2017 and the end of 2018. German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 Executive Summary 5 This year, Germany will become the first country in the world to have a nation- wide motorway charging network, comprising more than 400 locations, each with multiple DC charging points. The high power charging technology that is already appearing in some charging stations will significantly reduce charging times. Overall, the coverage of Germany’s network of AC and DC charging points is getting better and better. The power grid is able to cope with electric vehicle charging. However, continued market growth will result in new power distribution requirements that will call for local power grid expansion and smart load management. Outlook Leading supplier Research and development is continuing along the entire value chain. Technological solutions continue to be developed, business models are being adapted and additional research into new technologies is being accelerated. Further optimisation is required in areas such as life cycle assessments, materials, functional integration and high power charging. In order for Germany to become a leading global competitor, further efforts are also necessary with regard to material, cell and battery technology and battery production. To this end, we have identified some of the key strategic fields and devel- oped concrete project outlines for R & D programmes. German manufacturers will have 100 electric vehicle models on the market by 2020. Their stated intention to continue developing a comprehensive portfolio of vehicle models is now being realised. All suppliers are expanding the number of vehicle models they offer over and above German manufacturers’ existing ranges of everyday vehicles. German manufacturers’ share of the total global market continues to grow. The growing availability of electric vehicles made by German manufacturers across all vehicle segments will have a corresponding impact on their global market share. They will be able to use the expertise gained from the manufacture of conventional vehicles to scale up EV production. As production volumes increase, raw material availability will become an increas- ingly important issue. In order to create a more sustainable value chain, it will be necessary to place greater emphasis on production, as well as R&D. The supply of critical raw materials must be guaranteed. Second use solutions and recycling are becoming increasingly important. Lead market Ensuring the quality of a functioning overall system will be key. Past efforts must be sustained in order to ensure the continued development of the electric mobility market and achieve the goal of a functioning overall system. The remaining gaps in the system must also be closed as soon as possible. Electric mobility can only be successfully
Progress Report 2018 6 Executive Summary established as an integrated system encompassing vehicle supply, charging infrastruc- ture, the energy system, services and the corresponding legal framework. Current forecasts by the experts involved in the NPE suggest that the target of one million electric vehicles is likely to be achieved in 2022. In its 2009 National Electromobility Development Plan, the Federal Government set the target of having one million electric vehicles on the road in Germany by 2020. However, the actual market trend indicates that if the market continues to grow at the current rate the target will probably not be met until 2022. There are several reasons for this discrepancy with the NPE’s market ramp-up model. These include the delay in the widespread availability of vehicle models, the later-than-expected implementation of the funding programme for the expansion of the charging infrastructure, gaps in the regulatory framework and the delayed introduction of the “environmental bonus”. Going forward, customers will also need to be more successfully persuaded of the attractiveness of the overall electric mobility system. The market will continue to grow between now and 2025. By 2025, it is expected that between 15 and 25 percent of new registrations worldwide will be electric vehicles. In Germany, this will equate to a total of 2 to 3 million electric vehicles, accounting for between 4 and 6.5 percent of all vehicles on the road. The NPE calculates that in order to meet the target of one million electric vehicles it will be necessary to install 70,000 public AC charging points and 7,100 public DC charging points, as well as approximately one million private charging points. The NPE’s market ramp-up scenario projects that 130,000 to 190,000 public AC charging points and 13,000 to 19,000 public DC charging points will be required by 2025. Urgent action is already required to expand the private charging infrastructure. The market ramp-up scenario calls for the installation of between 2.4 and 3.5 million private charging points by 2025. There are signs that the expected positive impact of electric mobility on employ- ment for the period up to 2020 is materialising. Moreover, the NPE’s experts expect this positive employment impact across the system as a whole to continue to 2025. However, the pressure on employment levels will increase after this date, leading to a reduction in the number of jobs in some individual segments, especially powertrain production. In order to prevent negative employment effects, targeted investments should therefore be made in leading-edge technologies and infrastructure for the future mobility system. German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 Executive Summary 7 Areas requiring urgent action The implementation of support measures must be continued in order to sustain the high market growth rate. The NPE therefore recommends the systematic continuation of three key market incentives. Firstly, government and automotive manufacturers should continue to use the “environmental bonus” to support the growth of the electric vehicle market until the target of one million vehicles has been achieved. Secondly, the Electric Mobility Act (Elektromobilitätsgesetz – EmoG) should be implemented systematically and universally by local authorities. And thirdly, accessible, customer-specific communication about the overall electric mobility system must be provided by all the relevant actors in order to increase customer acceptance. Further funding calls for the expansion of the charging infrastructure are needed without delay. Demand for a smart, connected, controllable charging infrastructure that is fit for the future will continue to grow in both the public and private domains. The charging infrastructure should be expanded in order to keep pace with demand. This will require further public and private investment that should be implemented as rapidly as possible. As the coalition agreement of Germany’s current government rightly states, the prompt establishment of funding programmes to support the expansion and installation of private charging infrastructure will be especially important. Support for a charging infrastructure capable of meeting demand in private vehicle depots will also be necessary in order to promote the growth of the electric light commercial vehicle market in the trade and fleet operator sectors. Better legal and financial frameworks must be created for charging infrastructure located in shared private parking facilities (e.g. facilities belonging to apartment blocks). The high costs and complicated legal situation currently associated with the installation of private charging points should be addressed through the establishment of practical building standards that at the very least comply with the EU’s Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, as well as through the appropriate amendments to Germany’s tenancy and residential property law. Investment in grid infrastructure must be increased in order to create smart grids that guarantee security of supply. The market players must agree to share forecast and real-time data with each other, and it will also be necessary to develop and establish flexible regulations for vehicle charging. These will be key to the use of smart grids, preventing peaks in demand and enabling controlled charging, for example. It will be important to ensure that power grids are smart enough to cope with the growing number of electric vehicles and guarantee security of supply. Further R&D expenditure in the field of vehicle technology will be required between 2018 and 2020. The combined expenditure of industry and the public sector should be in the region of €1 billion.
Progress Report 2018 8 Executive Summary R & D in the fields of material, cell and battery technology and production should be intensified. This includes new materials for high-capacity and high-energy battery systems. Simulation, modelling and data analytics will also play an increasingly important role in product and process optimisation. At the same time, it will also be necessary to continuously monitor the global market with regard to both the supply of critical raw materials and the growing demand in the market for innovative battery systems. Measures should be established to promote electric commercial vehicles and buses: Electric vehicles can have many different applications, for instance as urban delivery vehicles or in bus fleets. This means that over the coming years they can make a critical and sustained contribution to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in our towns and cities. Electric mobility also provides local authorities with the opportunity to make their own vehicle fleets greener and more sustainable. Selected funding initiatives and general measures that have already been approved and implemented by the Federal Government: Environmental bonus •• The “environmental bonus” introduced by the Federal Government in conjunction with the automotive industry under the “Richtlinie zur Förderung des Absatzes von Elektrofahrzeugen” (Regulation for the Promotion of Electric Vehicle Sales) is a purchase grant worth €4,000 for battery electric vehicles and €3,000 for plug-in hybrids. The grant may be claimed for vehicles with a net list price of up to €60,000. The total available funding is capped at €1.2 billion, split 50/50 between the Federal Government and the automotive industry. Charging infrastructure funding programme •• The Federal Government is investing €300 million between 2017 and 2020 to expand the public charging infrastructure under the “Förderrichtlinie Ladeinfrastruk- tur für Elektrofahrzeuge in Deutschland” (Funding Regulation for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in Germany). The aim is to install a total of at least 15,000 charging stations throughout Germany, including 5,000 fast charging stations and 10,000 standard charging stations. Approximately €200 million is available for the fast charging infrastructure and about €100 million for the standard charging infrastructure. This funding will provide an important stimulus for the installation of a charging infrastructure capable of meeting demand. Motorway charging infrastructure •• In conjunction with motorway services company Autobahn Tank & Rast GmbH, the Federal Government will provide fast charging points and parking spaces for electric vehicles at all 400 motorway service stations by the end of 2018. German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 Executive Summary 9 Immediate Action Programme Clean Air 2017–2020 •• At the second local authority summit (Kommunalgipfel) on 28 November 2017, the Federal Government launched the “Sofortprogramm Saubere Luft 2017–2020” (Immediate Action Programme Clean Air 2017–2020), a package of measures worth up to €1 billion aimed at improving air quality in towns and cities. €393 million has been allocated to transport electrification measures. Under this programme, the Federal Government will provide targeted support for the purchase of electric vehicles by people in Germany’s most polluted towns and cities. Electric Mobility Act •• The Electric Mobility Act (Elektromobilitätsgesetz – EmoG) of June 2015 defines the different types of electric vehicle as battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and fuel cell electric vehicles. It allows local authorities to give preferential treatment to electric vehicles, especially with regard to parking spaces and charges and the use of restricted road spaces such as bus lanes. Support for local authorities and fleets •• The Federal Government is providing targeted cross-departmental support to help local authorities and fleet operators increase the number of electric vehicles at a local level. The aim is to grow the market for electric vehicles and the associated infrastructure in the strategic area of local mobility and logistics. Monetary incentives and measures to remove legal obstacles • The use of electric vehicles is also being promoted through tax incentives. The electricity provided by employers for employees to charge their electric cars is no longer treated as a non-cash benefit. Employees receive a reduced income tax rate on the benefit gained from their employer allowing them to charge their electric vehicle and the free or discounted use of chargers, as well as subsidies to use them. • The vehicle tax exemption for battery electric vehicles has been extended to ten years and will now last until 31 December 2020. • The “German Standardisation Roadmap Electric Mobility 2020” has been completed and approved. This document sets out the scope of the national and international work required in the field of norms and standardisation up to the start of the mass market phase. The work outlined in the Standardisation Roadmap is being actively supported and developed. • The regulations for driving electric light commercial vehicles have been simplified. A derogation (until 31 December 2019) means that holders of Category B driving licences can drive electric vehicles of up to 4.25 tonnes rather than the usual limit of 3.5 tonnes. This makes it possible for electric commercial vehicles to compete with conventional vehicles in terms of load capacity, without being subject to the provisions of the “Berufskraftfahrerqualifikationsgesetz” (Professional Driver Qualifica- tion Act) which would require their drivers to possess a Category C1 driving licence.
2 Electric mobility – an overall system ET A RK RM PE SU RY CTO FA FA CTO RY N TIO TA ICES RV C W SE
Progress Report 2018 Electric mobility – an overall system 11 Electric mobility is one of the keys to a sustainable transformation that will make mobility all around the world more climate- and environmental- ly-friendly, less resource-intensive and more efficient. Founded in 2010 on the initiative of the Federal Government, industry, the trade unions and representatives of civil society, the German National Platform for Electric Mobility (NPE) supports the development of a lead market in the fields of infrastructure, products, standardisation and training. Representatives of industry, academia, government, the trade unions and civil society draw up general recommendations for creating an appropriate and competitive overall environment. A consensus was reached that German industry should aim to become a technology leader and leading supplier in the field of electric mobility by 2020, and that Germany should also become a lead market for electric mobility. The vision is to get one million electric vehicles on the road in Germany by 2020, while ensuring that the high employment levels across the value chain are maintained. The quality of the overall electric mobility system will be key to generating demand and achieving lead market status. In this report, the NPE reviews the market ramp-up phase (2015–2017) for electric mobility in Germany. It also looks ahead to the next stage in its development between now and 2025, identifies areas requiring action and makes a number of corresponding recommendations. Germany’s high-quality products, services and technological solutions make it one of the world’s leading suppliers, while new electric vehicle registrations are growing increasingly strongly. In order to establish a mass market for electric vehicles, it will be necessary to embed the key areas of electric mobility – from vehicle technology and charging infrastructure to the energy, environmental and urban planning aspects – within a user-oriented overall system. The individual vehicle, energy supply and charging infrastructure aspects and the associated frameworks must be integrated with each other so that they can function as an overall system. The quality of the overall electric mobility system will be key to generating demand. Different needs require their own specific solutions. In a customer-friendly electric mobility system, users should therefore be able to choose between a range of different technologies. This is why the concept of electric mobility encompasses plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and range extenders (REEVs) as well as battery-powered vehicles (BEVs). One feature common to all of these drive technologies is that the vehicles can be charged directly from the electricity grid.
Progress Report 2018 12 Electric mobility – an overall system For Germany, electric mobility represents both an opportunity and a challenge in terms of maintaining and developing its position as an industrial, scientific and technological leader. The development of electric mobility is a challenge that affects the whole of society and is thus addressed across several different policy areas: The Federal Government has adopted the overall programme proposed by the NPE and launched a series of measures aimed at delivering a successful market ramp-up. Similar measures have been introduced by other lead markets that are also promoting the switch to electric mobility, for example the US, China, the Netherlands and Norway. German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 Electric mobility – an overall system 13 2.1 User perspective Both customer feedback to manufacturers and the behaviour of users in the electric mobility showcase regions (see p. 44 ff.) indicate that user attitudes towards electric mobility are strongly influenced by the extent to which it meets their own personal mobility needs. People’s subjective opinions about whether they will still be able to use their usual routes and travel to particular destinations in an electric vehicle go a long way towards determining whether or not they are willing to buy one. One reason for this is undoubtedly the fact that, according to a survey on the future of mobility published by German automobile club ADAC in spring 2017, the modal split – i. e. the percentage of journeys made using different modes of transport – is set to remain more or less unchanged over the next few years. In other words, it seems likely that in the medium term people will continue to use their current preferred means of transport and that the importance of private motor transport will remain undiminished for some years to come. Potential users must be persuaded that they will be able to meet their usual mobility needs with an electric vehicle, ideally without any loss of comfort or other benefits compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. The two main factors that prevent people from buying electric vehicles are their higher purchase price compared to internal combustion engine vehicles and the perception that their range is too limited. Other key requirements include realistic range specifications and reliable battery life figures so that people can be confident they are making a sound invest- ment. The third most important obstacle is the availability of private and public charging infrastructure. The opportunity to gain firsthand experience prior to purchasing their own electric vehicle has a significant influence on user attitudes towards electric mobility. This might involve using an electric vehicle as part of a car sharing scheme or for taxi and bus journeys, for example. Using these services helps people to overcome their psychologi- cal barriers and discover what electric mobility is really like in practice. Further customer information roadshows are planned for 2018, for example in shopping centres and selected municipalities. It is important that these measures should build trust in electric mobility as an environmentally sustainable and future-proof technology. This can be done by communicating the vehicles’ carbon footprint and the electricity mix used to power them. People’s attitudes are already changing: the public attaches far greater impor- tance to environmental and climate protection issues in the transport sector than it did even a few years ago. It is therefore necessary to improve the overall framework for environmentally-friendly alternative drive technologies. Key themes for users: • Range of attractive electric vehicles • Access to public and private charging facilities • Electric vehicles’ environmental and climate footprint
Progress Report 2018 14 Electric mobility – an overall system 2.2 Energy and environment The transport sector is currently the second largest energy consumer in Germany. Electric mobility can replace fossil fuels for mobility applications and thus contribute to climate and environmental protection, especially through the use of renewable energy. Even today, taking their entire life cycle from manufacture to disposal into account together with the current electricity mix in Germany, electric vehicles’ CO2 emissions can be anywhere between 16 and 27 percent lower than comparable internal combus- tion engine vehicles, depending on which fuel they use and which types of vehicle are compared. This was among the findings of the study “Weiterentwicklung und vertiefte Analyse der Umweltbilanz von Elektrofahrzeugen” (Further Development and In-Depth Analysis of Electric Vehicles’ Environmental Footprint) carried out by the Heidelberg Institute for Energy and Environmental Research (IFEU) on behalf of the Federal Environ- ment Agency (UBA)1. Moreover, the steadily rising percentage of renewable energy in the electricity mix means that CO2 emissions will continue to fall, making electric vehicles even more climate-friendly compared to their conventional counterparts. In areas with a high traffic density, electric vehicles can significantly reduce emis- sions, since running them does not produce any emissions locally. Local NOX emissions are almost completely eliminated, for example. Furthermore, electric vehicles are quieter and emit fewer particulates. For instance, the brake energy recovery system reduces brake abrasion during braking, meaning that less particulate matter is released into the atmosphere. According to a rough estimate by the NPE, if one million electric vehicles were on the road, particulate emissions would be reduced by somewhere in the region of > 30 tonnes/year. German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 Electric mobility – an overall system 15 The intelligent integration of electric mobility in the energy cycle can make a sustaina- ble contribution to the energy transition. In principle, it is possible to use locally generated electricity – for example from domestic PV systems – directly at the point where it is generated, i. e. without needing to feed it into the grid first. Moreover, a controllable charging infrastructure allows electric vehicles to support grid stability by ensuring that they are charged at times when there is a particularly large quantity of renewable energy in the grid. By actively contributing to grid stability in this way, electric vehicles can help to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades to cope with fluctuations in the supply of renewable energy. 2.3 Towns and cities Towns and cities are important actors in the overall electric mobility system without which climate targets cannot be delivered. Electric mobility can play an important role in the development and implementation of mobility strategies. Electric vehicles can have many different applications, for instance as urban delivery vehicles or in fleets. This means that over the coming years they can make a critical and sustained contribution to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in our towns and cities. Electric mobility also provides local authorities with the opportunity to make their own vehicle fleets greener and more sustainable. This will require an integrated planning approach that considers electric mobility in conjunction with all the other means of sustainable urban transport.
3 Review of progress to date KET M AR PER SU
Progress Report 2018 Review of progress to date 17 3.1 Leading supplier and lead market progress to date Leading supplier Germany is currently one of the leading global suppliers for electric mobility. Germany’s automotive manufacturers are achieving a higher or at least similar market share for electric vehicles compared to their market share for passenger cars as a whole in all of the major markets such as western Europe, the US and Japan. Consumers currently have a choice of at least 33 serial-produced electric vehicle models made by German manufacturers (see illustration on p. 20/21). More than one out of every two electric vehicles in western Europe – and over 66 percent in Germany – was built by German manufacturers. In the United States, meanwhile, the equivalent figure of 16 percent compares favourably with a figure of around 8 percent for conventional vehicles. The one exception is China, where 90 percent of the market is dominated by domestic makes and electric vehicles built by German manufacturers only have a 2 percent market share. The growth rate for the Chinese market has accelerated further in recent years. In 2017, what is by far the world’s largest market for electric cars grew by 72 percent, with electric vehicles now accounting for 2.4 percent of the total car market (up from 1.4 percent in 2016). The measures taken by the Chinese government to promote the production of electric vehicles by Chinese companies make it extremely difficult for German automotive manufacturers to sell electric vehicles in China. In the United States, the 26 percent year-on-year growth in electric vehicle sales represented a decline compared to the previous year’s rate. Norway (+39 percent) remains the lead market in Western Europe (+38 percent) – electric vehicles account for 39 percent of all new registrations in the Norwegian market. Electric vehicles have a 2.0 percent market share in western Europe, with Germany (+117 percent) experiencing the strongest growth. Sales have increased the most in those countries where targeted measures to support electric vehicles have been introduced.
Progress Report 2018 18 Review of progress to date Since 2014, Germany has updated its overall framework for electric mobility and has now caught up with other countries around the world. Thanks in particular to the “environmental bonus”, the charging infrastructure expansion programme and a variety of tax breaks, Germany is no longer at such a strong disadvantage compared to other countries. However, the rather limited use of special usage rights and privileges relative to other nations should serve as an incentive to make further improvements to the regulations and their implementation. Between 2014 and 2018, research and development continued to provide the basis for innovation and a comprehensive electric mobility product portfolio across the entire value chain. The investments that have been made are delivering concrete results. Globally, about one third of all patents in the field of electric mobility now come from Germany. Government funding for research and development and industry’s commitment to R & D are thus absolutely vital. Research and development strengthens the technology leadership of German businesses and makes a key contribution to Germany’s position as a leading supplier. 2 percent of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) in Germany are electric, the same proportion as in Norway. In Germany, German manufacturers enjoy a market share of 80 percent. On average, electric vehicles’ share of the LCV market in western Europe is 0.9 percent. In the US (0.5 percent) and China (1.4 percent), electric vehicles still account for only a very small proportion of the light trucks market. Batteries are a key component of the value chain. With the exception of industrial battery cell production, German manufacturers cover every production stage, from the produc- tion of materials, components, modules and batteries to their integration in vehicles. German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 Review of progress to date 19 Furthermore, the review presented in the following chapters of the progress achieved to date by Germany in the field of electric mobility shows that German industry covers all the major links in the value chain, from information and communication technology (Chapter 3.1.3) to vehicle technology (Chapter 3.1.5) and battery technology (Chapter 3.1.6). Consequently, Germany meets all the main requirements to be considered as a leading supplier. Lead market Germany is closing the gap on the world’s leading electric mobility markets. Common norms and standards, the integration of electric mobility into transport and urban planning, and the use of “green” electricity will all be critical to the future development of a lead market. Other key factors include the establishment of a public charging infrastructure capable of meeting demand and a sufficiently high penetration of the vehicle market by electric vehicles. Since the last progress report in 2014, significant progress has been made in all areas relating to the development of a lead market for electric mobility. 131,000 electric vehicles were registered in Germany between 2010 and 31 Decem- ber 2017. The German market experienced particularly strong growth during the final twelve months of this period. In terms of electric vehicles’ penetration of the overall vehicle market, the package of measures introduced by the Federal Government and industry was one of the main reasons for Germany achieving the highest percentage growth rate (+ 117 percent) in the world in 2017. The situation in Germany thus compares favourably to other countries around the world. On 1 January 2018, a total of 110,615 electric vehicles (as defined by the Electric Mobility Act) were registered in Germany, compared to 61,599 on 1 January 2017 (Source: Federal Motor Transport Authority).
Progress Report 2018 20 Review of progress to date This total can be broken down as follows: Total electric vehicles as of 1 January 2018 BEV passenger cars 53,861 PHEV passenger cars 44,419 Total BEV and PHEV passenger cars (vehicles relevant to NPE) 98,280 BEV light commercial vehicles 11,898 PHEV light commercial vehicles 38 Total BEV and PHEV light commercial vehicles (relevant to NPE) 11,936 Fuel cell electric vehicle passenger cars 378 Fuel cell light commercial vehicles 21 Total electric vehicles incl. BEV, PHEV and FCEV 110,615 Compact class Medium size vehicles vehicles Audi A3 BMW 330e Small cars Sportback e-tron BMW 225xe BMW 530e Active Tourer Kia Optima Sport- BMW i3 Ford Focus Electric wagon Plug-in hybrid BMW MINI Kia Optima Ford C-Max Energi Countryman Plug-in hybrid Hyundai IONIQ MB C 350e Citroën C-ZERO Elektro Limousine Hyundai IONIQ MB C 350e Luxury vehicles Smart EQ fortwo Plug-in hybrid T-Modell MB E 350e Smart EQ forfour MB B 250e Limousine Smart EQ VW Passat GTE BMW 740Le Nissan Leaf fourtwoCabrio Limousine xDrive Mitsubishi Nissan VW Passat GTE BMW 740Le Electric Vehicle e-NV200 Evalia Variant Volvo V60 D6 Peugeot i-ON Opel Ampera-e BMW 740e Twin Engine (Plug-in hybrid) Toyota Prius Renault ZOE MB S560e Plug-in hybrid Volvo S90 T8 Twin Engine AWD (Plug-in hybrid) Porsche Panamera VW e-up! VW e-Golf S E-Hybrid Volvo V90 T8 Twin Engine AWD VW e-load up! VW Golf GTE Tesla Model S (Plug-in hybrid) German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 Review of progress to date 21 German manufacturers offer a wide range of 33 models on the German market, supporting the assertion that Germany is both a leading supplier and a lead market. If vehicles made by non-German SUVs manufacturers are also counted, the choice of electric vehicles available in Germany is greater than anywhere else in the world. China is not included in this assessment, since their counting method does not meet the minimum technical standards of the other markets. In total, German consumers can Audi Q7 e-tron currently choose between no fewer than 63 elec- tric vehicle models. BMW X5 XDrive BEV 40e REEX PHEV Citroën E-MEHARI FCEV Hyundai ix35 Fuel Cell Kia Soul EV Kia Niro Plug-in hybrid MB GLC FuelCell Vans MB GLC 350e MB GLE 500e Mitsubishi Outlander Citroën Berlingo Plug-in hybrid Electric Porsche Cayenne S Nissan e-NV200 E-Hybrid delivery van Light commercial vehicles Nissan e-NV200 Tesla Model X Combi Volvo XC60 T8 Peugeot Partner Twin Engine AWD Electric Sports cars (Plug-in hybrid) Renault Kangoo Streetscooter Z. E. Work (B14) Volvo XC90 T8 Twin Engine AWD Renault Kangoo Streetscooter (Plug-in hybrid) BMW i8 Maxi Z. E. Work (D16)
Progress Report 2018 22 Review of progress to date Nevertheless, further work is required for Germany to achieve its goal of joining the world’s leading electric mobility markets. In particular, it will be crucial to persuade users of the quality of the overall electric mobility system. 3.1.1 Market evolution and general framework The various measures initiated by government and industry have been key to the market growth achieved thus far and their continuation will be critical to further growth in the future. These initiatives include regulatory measures, support for the construction of the public charging infrastructure and monetary measures such as tax incentives and the “environmental bonus”: The tax incentives include changes to company car tax rules, vehicle tax exemption for electric vehicles and changes to the treatment of workplace electric vehicle charging as a non-cash benefit. These incentives should serve to promote wider uptake of electric vehicles. The 2015 Electric Mobility Act (EmoG) also provides for a number of user incentives that can be employed to encourage a targeted shift towards electric mobility in the local mobility context. More than two thirds of all new electric vehicle registrations up to October 2017 were fitted with the special “E” number plate for electric vehicles. The advantages conferred on electric vehicles by the Electric Mobility Act – such as parking privileges, special access rights and special usage rights – create a framework for making electric mobility more attractive at local level. However, this instrument has not yet been used to its full potential across Germany – the special privileges have only been implemented in less than 1 percent of local authority areas. An update on the situation will be published in July 2018. The environmental bonus also contributed to the pronounced increase in the number of new electric vehicle registrations in 2017. This financial incentive to buy electric German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 Review of progress to date 23 vehicles is funded 50/50 by industry and the Federal Government. Although the current rate of approximately 4,600 applications a month means that take-up has been lower than expected, the overall trend nevertheless clearly testifies to the effectiveness of this measure. While the rise in the number of applications has plateaued at some points, there have also been quarterly increases of over 30 percent. Total monthly applications have quadrupled from 1,200 to 4,650 since the launch of the environmen- tal bonus. Stronger market growth has been held back by the continuing perception that the charging infrastructure is inadequate, the current total cost of ownership and the failure to adequately communicate the benefits of electric vehicles to customers. The fact that the model used for the NPE’s calculations was based on the assumption that both the charging infrastructure programme and the environmental bonus would start earlier than they actually did goes some way towards explaining the slower than expected growth in electric vehicle numbers. Nevertheless, with the exception of 2016, the number of new registrations almost doubled every year, with an even stronger increase in 2017. As a result, the German market leads the world in terms of the duration, gradient and continuity of its growth. The market’s future development will also depend heavily on continued funding of research and development across the entire value chain and on the comprehensive programme to expand the public charging infrastructure, with the provision of non-discriminatory access as required by the Charging Station Ordinance (Ladesäulen- verordnung).
Progress Report 2018 24 Review of progress to date 3.1.2 Charging infrastructure and power grid integration The stimulus packages for expanding the charging infrastructure recommended by the NPE and implemented by the Federal Government have had a clear impact. As a result, the expansion of the AC and DC charging infrastructure in Germany is currently on target. If all the applications received for funding to expand the charging infrastructure are fully realised, it will be possible to triple the number of standard charging points and achieve almost a tenfold increase in the number of DC charging points between the start of the programme in 2017 and the end of 2018. This year, Germany will become the first country in the world to have a nationwide motorway fast charging network, comprising more than 400 locations. Thanks to the funding programmes, progress is also being made in upgrading the charging infrastruc- ture with high power charging technology. High power charging (HPC) cuts charging times and enables long-distance mobility, providing high reliability for customers and significantly increasing acceptance of electric vehicles. Although the impact on power grids is at present still minimal, it is nonetheless essential to install a nationwide, smart, controllable charging infrastructure without delay, in order to ensure sustainable, cost-effective grid integration and prevent stranded investments. The standardised Combined Charging System (CCS) has become established as the leading system in Europe, the US, Korea and other key automotive markets. The new directives and regulations should mean that the plethora of different connector types and incompatible charging points will soon be a thing of the past. However, it will be important to ensure that these regulations are implemented without exception in public places. German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 Review of progress to date 25 Compared to 2014, the map of Germany for 2017 shows both an increase in overall geographical coverage and a rise in the number of charging points in locations with high electric vehicle numbers. The conditions for expanding the public charging infra structure have improved significantly thanks to the Funding Regulation for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure. Overall, Germany’s charging network coverage is getting better and better: as of June 2017, there were over 10,700 charging points in Germany, including more than 530 DC charging points. A provisional estimate put the number of charging points in December 2017 at around 12,500, including 850 fast charging points. The NPE welcomes the Federal Government’s use of a “location tool” to ensure that future expansion of the charging infrastructure is even more effectively targeted. Between 2017 and 2020, the Federal Government is making a total of €300 million available for public charging infrastructure through a variety of funding calls. Assuming that public funding will on average account for 40 percent of total investment, this can be expected to generate up to €450 million of additional private investment. This means that, in total, as much as €750 million could potentially be invested in the charging infrastructure. In purely mathematical terms, this figure would meet the investment of €550 million euros calculated by the NPE in 2014 as necessary to provide the 7,100 fast charging points and 70,000 standard charging points required for one million electric vehicles. However, since the rapid advances in DC charging technology could not have been foreseen at the time, it was not possible to provide a definitive forecast of the required investment level in 2014. It is therefore necessary to revisit the funding and investment figures to check whether they need to be amended. Doing so will undoubtedly result in a higher required investment figure. Further funding calls for the expansion of the charging infrastructure are needed as soon as possible, and it will also be vital to ensure that funding applications are processed more rapidly. The high number of applications for the funding calls that have been launched to date demonstrates that industry is very keen to invest. The first charging infrastructure funding call, with funding of €30 million for standard charging points and 2,500 fast charging points, was financially oversubscribed several times over. As the authority responsible for approving the applications, the Federal Agency for Administrative Services (Bundesanstalt für Verwaltungsdienstleistungen – BAV) received a total of 1,316 funding applications. Up to the end of January 2018, it approved some 7,500 standard charging points and over 1,300 fast charging points, of which over 200 had a charging power of at least 100 kW. This means that 8,800 charging points were approved in total. This eagerness to invest led to the launch of a second funding call with a deadline of October 2017. On this occasion, funding of €100 million was made available for a further 12,000 standard charging points and 1,000 fast charging points with a charging power of at least 150 kW. For the first time, the key criterion used to assess applications was the cost of the charging power applied for.
Progress Report 2018 26 Review of progress to date The charging infrastructure programme’s two funding calls are expected to result in the number of AC charging points trebling to over 30,000 in total. This would amount to just under half of the NPE’s target of 70,000 charging points by 2020 for the one million electric vehicle scenario. Moreover, the current total of 530 DC charging points could increase almost tenfold to 4,600 in 2018 when all the charging points for which funding has been granted become operational. Applications were received for 2,000 DC and over 3,000 high power charging (HPC) charging points, leading to oversubscription of the original funding call, which was for 2,500 DC and 1,000 HPC charging points. Applications were thus received for three times the number of fast charging points that funding was available for. It should be pointed out, however, that many applicants applied for significantly more than the upper limit of €5 million that can be granted to any one applicant. These figures for the likely increase in AC, DC and HPC charging points provide a sound basis for calculating how many more charging points will need to be installed and how much additional funding will be required. As the coalition agreement of Germany’s current government rightly states, the prompt establishment of funding programmes to support the expansion and installation of private charging infrastructure will be especially important. German National Platform for Electric Mobility
Progress Report 2018 Review of progress to date 27 Power grid integration At present, the impact on the power grid in Germany is minimal. The distribution grids in regions with high proportions of renewable energy are already well developed. Consequently, the moderate charging infrastructure presence in these regional grids is generally non-critical. The same applies to the larger individual connections, e. g. to fast charging stations that are routine business for the grid operators such as connections with relatively high power requirements belonging to business and industrial custom- ers. The installation cost subsidies for these charging stations provide customers with an incentive to employ charging management systems. Key measures requiring prompt implementation • compulsory notification of grid operator for low-voltage charging equipment in keeping with technical connection requirements, • ensuring the general controllability of charging equipment, so that if necessary it can be controlled e.g. via an online link, • smart charging management, • an appropriate regulatory framework that makes it possible to offer electric vehicle drivers attractive, market-oriented incentives to behave in a way that supports grid stability (e. g. in accordance with § 14a Energy Industry Act – EnWG), and • simultaneous regulatory recognition of grid operator investments that comprise an economically efficient mix of grid expansion and the use of intelligent solutions. Nevertheless, the interim findings of a joint BDEW and FNN meta-study on the integra- tion of electric mobility with the power grid indicate that it is necessary to act now in order to establish the basic conditions for enabling the future growth of the electric mobility market without compromising grid stability. The meta-study also indicates that while the introduction of grid management measures can significantly reduce grid load in conventional grids, it is not enough on its own in strong growth scenarios. Consequently, if the market penetration of electric mobility increases, it will be necessary to further expand the grid, with all the additional costs that this entails. The connection of a central, high-performance, medium-voltage charging infrastructure will have a positive impact on the grid’s ability to cope with electric mobility and on the cost of the required grid expansion. Further research will be required to support continued market growth, especially into separate simulations for different voltage levels and for urban and rural areas. 3.1.3 Information and communication technology The digitalisation of electric mobility is set to accelerate rapidly over the next few years. ICT will play a key role in enabling fast, multifaceted connectivity between the transport and energy sectors. This will in turn lead to continuous growth in demand for smart, connected, controllable charging infrastructure that is fit for the future, in both the public and private domains.
Progress Report 2018 28 Review of progress to date In addition to the development and market establishment of (new) technical solutions in the shape of standard, interoperable IT interfaces and communication and data protocols, successful implementation will therefore also call for the corresponding data protection law and IT security requirements to be addressed right from the outset. Europe-wide harmonisation will be essential in order to meet the requirements of a European digital single market and safeguard Europe’s competitiveness. In the NPE’s view, it is important for the new ICT-based functionality that becomes available as a result of increasing digitalisation to prioritise customer-friendly charging. Factors such as simplicity, cost-effectiveness, sustainability and safety are all equally important and this should be taken into account when developing new functions. The NPE has been closely involved in providing input for various activities in this area, and has also identified new areas that will be important for the positive future development of electric mobility and its integration into the relevant ecosystems. Charging Station Ordinance The European Commission’s Directive 2014/94/EU on the deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure lays the foundations for the creation of a comprehensive, modern charging infrastructure for electric mobility. The EU Directive was transposed into German law in March 2016 in the shape of the Charging Station Ordinance (Ladesäu- lenverordnung). ICT is accorded a key role in enabling both customer-friendly charging and charging management (especially e-roaming) and the use of modern payment methods such as credit cards, online payment, etc. In addition, the supplementary provisions to the Charging Station Ordinance that were adopted in May 2017 establish standard rules both for the charging process itself and for billing. Public charging infrastructure customers will now have the option of charging and paying either on a contract basis or via an online payment system. As well as increasing acceptance and user-friendliness, this will also enable simple charging abroad, in keeping with the vision of pan-European mobility. Germany can lead the way in Europe in this area by driving the relevant integration processes. However, a coordinated approach, or at least the support of the other member states, will be both invaluable and necessary for successful cross-border e-roaming. A number of funding programmes for the expansion of the charging infrastructure have been initiated on the basis of these regulatory measures. Germany was one of the first European countries to fully implement the EU Directive within the corresponding deadline. Nevertheless, according to the assessment published by the European Commission in November 2017, significant work is still required to ensure that an adequate charging infrastructure is in place by 2020. Furthermore, the Charging Station Ordinance provides for different types of static data to be collected from the public charging infrastructure (e. g. location, charging type and power, payment method, etc.) and sent to the Federal Network Agency (Bun- desnetzagentur – BNetzA). While the NPE supports and welcomes this initiative, it also believes that the collection of data for purely statistical purposes is insufficient to achieve the desired results. There is both the demand and the need in the market for a central charging station register for all public charging points in Germany. Moreover, German National Platform for Electric Mobility
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