Promotion of Electric Mobility in Mexico - 2018/EWG/WKSP1/006 - APEC Electromobility Workshop Santiago, Chile 1-2 February 2018 - APEC Meeting ...
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2018/EWG/WKSP1/006
Promotion of Electric Mobility in Mexico
Submitted by: Mexico
APEC Electromobility Workshop
Santiago, Chile
1-2 February 2018
Promotion of Electric Mobility in Mexico
Federal Electricity Commission (CFE)
Vladimir Sosa Rivas
The greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) of the last 60 years are raising
the temperature of the planet. This is due to a carbon density 40% higher
than the level of the pre-industrial stage.
Carbon emissions from the consumption of fossil fuels (1751-2011)
10,000 Great
Depression
9,000 (1929-1933)
Million metric tons of carbon / year
8,000
World War II (1939-1945)
7,000
6,000
Beginning of the First Beginning of the Second
5,000 Industrial Revolution Industrial Revolution(Aprox.
(Aprox. 1760) 1870)
4,000
3,000
World population reaches
Automobile 7 billion habitants (2011)
2,000 invention(1886-
1908)
1,000
0
1751
1756
1761
1766
1771
1776
1781
1786
1791
1796
1801
1806
1811
1816
1821
1826
1831
1836
1841
1846
1851
1856
1861
1866
1871
1876
1881
1886
1891
1896
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
From 1751 to date, approximately 364 billion tons of CO2 have been released into the atmosphere through the use of fossil
fuels.
2
Source: PAESE, with information of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, International Energy Agency y U.S. Census.
Worldwide, the transport sector is one of the most energy-intensive: it
demands 28% of the total energy generated. In Mexico, this sector
demands 45% of the total energy generated in the economy.
Total final energy consumption by sector
Worldwide, 2012 México, 2016
Non-
energetic use
3.1%
Residential Others
13.8% 7.1%
Industriy
30.6%
Transport
45.3%
3
Fuente: PAESE, con información de la SENER y de la International Energy Agency.The transport sector has the largest increase in final energy consumption in
Mexico. The growth rate of motorization in the economy is 6.3% per year
(more than 2 times higher than the rate of 2.4% of population growth).
Final energy consumption by sector through time in Mexico, 2014 ( mbep per day)
mbep: thousands of barrels oil equivalent
4
Source: Energy Database of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Sustainable Transport Center and National Institute of Ecology (CTS-INE).As the income of the population increases, the value of time also
increases. Passengers tend to replace the bicycle with the car or the
car by air travel, choosing means of transport that guarantee greater
speed.
Motorized vehicles by economies and GDP per capita, 2003-2010
900
United States
800
Motorized vehicles * per 1,000 inhabitants
Australia Iceland
700 Italy
Spain Japan
600 Austria Switzerland
Germany Holland
Greece Norway
500 Poland
United Kingdom
Denmark
400
Kuwait
Malaysia Israel
300
South Korea
Russia Mexico
200
Brazil Chile
Turkey
100 Ecuador
China
0 India
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
GDP per capita (in 2005 dollars)
• It includes all passenger and cargo vehicles but excludes two-wheelers and tractors for agricultural use. 5
Source: PAESE with information from the World Bank. January 2012.When driving, an electric vehicle does not generate emissions, while
vehicles with an internal combustion engine generate 13 to 19 tons of
carbon dioxide every 5 years.
20 CO2 emissions by vehicle type Gasoline 9 km / L
(19.4 ton)
15
CO2 emissions (tons)
Gasoline 13 km / L
(13.4 ton)
10
5
Electric 6.0 km / kWh
(0.0 ton)
0
0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000
Distance traveled (km)
Assumptions: Average of 15,000 km traveled per year by car in Mexico. Emission of 0.4524 tons of CO2 per MWh generated in Mexico. Gas
emissions only by combustion.
6
Source: With information from the CFE, BMW, Nissan and Fueleconomy.govTo comprehensively assess the impact on the environment, it is
necessary to consider the life cycle of the vehicles.
CO2 emissions throughout the life cycle of the different types of vehicles
400
351
350
300
Emissions (g CO2 / km)
248
250 218
203
200
143
150
83
100
50
0
Gasoline Gasoline Electric Electric (fuel oil) Electric Electric
9 km/l 13 km/l (carbon) (natural gas with (Solar photovoltaic)
combined cycle)
Type of vehicle
(power source)
WTW electricity WTW gasoline Manufacture
WTW ("well to wheels") is a broad analysis that covers the life cycle of the fuel, from extraction to combustion in the vehicle.
Manufacturing emissions are in CO2eq, while the others are in CO2. For the purpose of this comparison, there are no substantial differences between the
two measures. The totals are reported in CO2.
Source: PAESE, with information from the Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs of the Government of the United Kingdom (DEFRA), Ricardo-AEA and 7
BlueSkyModel.To the extent that electricity is generated with cleaner fuels, CO2
emissions may decrease. The energy mix of the CFE favors the use of
less polluting sources, which imply a greater environmental benefit, as
well as lower costs.
Energy portfolio of the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE)
1%
100% 3% 3% 3% 2%
4% 5% 2% 4%
Percentage of energy generated by source
90%
13% 15% 12%
17%
80%
Solar photovoltaic
70%
17% Wind
60% 36%
1% Geothermal
51%
58% Nuclear
50%
1% Hydraulics
40%
48% Natural gas
30% 27% Diesel
15% 1%
20% Fuel oil
9%
10% Carbon
15% 13% 13%
10%
0%
2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Note: The percentage participation of the fuels used in the generation is based on an estimate based on the
installed capacity (megawatts) of the CFE plus the generation of the Independent Power Producers (PIE).
8
Source: PAESE, with information from the annual report of the CFE 2015.In 2012, Mexico did not had the gas pipelines necessary to meet the
demand for natural gas in a timely manner. The Gas Pipeline System
had a length of 11,300 kilometers, was not interconnected and did not
have elements of redundancy.
Mexico Gas Pipeline System in 2012
Length of the Gas Pipeline System in
2012: 11,342 km
9
Source: Prospective of Natural Gas and L.P. Gas 2013-2027, Secretariat of Energy. 2013. Retrieved in January 2015.In 2012, the pipeline network in the United States was 43 times larger
than the National Gas Pipeline System in Mexico. Just the economy of
Texas had 8 times more kilometers of gas pipelines than Mexico.
United States Gas Pipeline Network in 2012
10
Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas, Natural Gas Division, Natural Gas Transportation Information System. 2012Within the framework of the National Infrastructure Program and coordinated
by SENER, CFE and Pemex tender gas pipelines will increase the Gas
Pipeline System by more than 85%, compared to the System in 2012. The
project will be completely built and fully operational by 2018.
New Gas Pipeline System
Length Investment %
Tucson Pipelines
(kilometers) (MDD *) Increase
Sásabe San Elizario / Existing until 2012 11,342 NA NA
San Isidro
In operation (CFE / Pemex) 1,995 3,449 17%
Puerto Waha
Samalayuca In construction (CFE / Pemex) 4,292 10,124 38%
Libertad
In tender (CFE) 2,738 8,590 24%
Hermosillo Presidio /
Ojinaga By tendering (CFE) 1,098 1,724 10%
El Encino
Total 21,428 23,887 89%
Guaymas Webb
Nueces
Topolobampo El Oro El Cabrito Brownsville
LaLa
Laguna
Laguna
Escobedo
La Paz Durango
Zacatecas Los Ramones
Mazatlán Villa de
Reyes Altamira
Aguascalientes Naranjos
Tamazunchale
Guadalajara Tuxpan
Tula
Morelos
Jaltipan
Lázaro
Cárdenas Mayakán
Acapulco
* MDD: Millions of dollars. Salina Cruz
Tapachula 11
Source: Unidad de Promoción de Inversiones, Dirección de Modernización, CFE.By 2017, the CFE will have built 9 new generation plants and converted 7
to use natural gas as well as fuel oil. In total, they represent about 10,800
MW of capacity and an investment of more than 6,400 MDD.
Conversion of existing plants and construction of new ones
CC Norte III (906 MW) Etapa No. MW MDD
Puerto Libertad (632 MW)
Converted 4 3,238 112
In conversion 3 1,320 108
New 9 6,200 6,200
CC Empalme I (770 MW) Total 16 10,758 6,408
CC Noreste / Escobedo (889 MW)
CC Empalme II (717 MW)
Juan de Dios Bátiz Paredes (320 MW) La Laguna
Presidente Emilio Portes Gil (300 MW)
CI Baja California Sur VI (42 MW)
CC Topolobampo III (666 MW) CC San Luis Potosí (790 MW)
Francisco Pérez Ríos (1,606 MW)
CC Noroeste
Topolobampo II (778 MW) Tula
José Aceves Pozos (300 MW)
Villa de Reyes (700 MW)
Manzanillo (700 MW)
CC Valle de México II (615 MW)
MW: Megawatts MDD: Millions of dollars..
12
Source: Unidad de Promoción de Inversiones, Dirección de Modernización, CFE.Currently, Mexico has 26% renewable energy in its generation park. The
goal is to reach 35% of generation with clean energy in 2024. For this
purpose, the CFE promotes 15 renewable energy projects that will increase
the renewable installed capacity of the CFE by 20%.
2,767 MW
4,774 MDD
Total investment in
renewable energy by 2018
130 MW
240 MDD
In 5 geothermal projects
1 in operation
2 en construcción
2 for tendering
2,383 MW
Geothermal 4,122 MDD
In 8 wind projects
Hydroelectric
1 in operation
Wind 7 for tendering
254 MW
412 MDD
Additionally, within the framework of the Geothermal Zero Round, SENER In 2 hydroelectric projects
granted the CFE 13 exploration permits for geothermal areas in 7 states of the in construction
Republic. They have an estimated potential of 448 MW.
13
Source: Subdirección de Programación y Dirección de Proyectos de Inversión Financiada, CFE.According to the Mario Molina Center, between 2012 and 2014 the CFE
reduced its CO2 emissions generated with fuel oil by 45%. By 2018, it is
estimated that the CFE will reduce emissions from the use of fuel oil by
90%.
CO2 emissions by energy source
15%
94
87
90
80
Million tons of CO2 per year
25
27 68 70 69
28 63
60
36 33 38 40
30 45% 39
20
30 7 5 4
3 90%
33 30 32 28 27 25 21
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Carbón, diésel y coque Combustóleo Gas
• Between 2012 and 2014, the CFE reduced its total CO2 emissions by 15%.
• By 2018, CFE's total CO2 emissions will drop by 32%, from 94 to 63 million tons of CO2 per year.
Note: Data from the CFE without including Independent Power Producers.
14
Source: Centro Mario Molina, con datos de la Dirección de Operación y la Subdirección de Programación.80% of the price of electricity depends on the type of fuel used to generate
it. Changes in its price influence electric mobility policies. On average, a
kilometer traveled with electricity, is between 40% and 70% cheaper than a
kilometer traveled with gasoline.
Operating costs per kilometer
$0.25
$0.22
$0.20
Cost (US dollars / km)
$0.11
$0.15
$0.10
$0.08 $0.07
$0.05 $0.04
$0.04 $0.03
$-00.00
Vehículo de gasolina eficiente Vehículo
Electriceléctrico
vehicle
Efficient gasoline vehicle
(rendimiento de 13 km/L) (rendimiento de 6 km/kWh)
Mantenimiento
Maintenance Gasolinaor
Gasoline o electricity
electricidad Tenencia
Taxes on ythe
verificación enuse
ownership or la Ciudad de México
of vehicles
Assumptions: The costs are approximate for the first year of operation and exclude the price of the vehicle, the Tax on New Automobiles (ISAN) and VAT for the
purchase of the vehicle. Electricity is invoiced in Rate 02 to the month of September 2017, with 375 kWh to the bimester, including the fixed charge and VAT. The price
of gasoline is 17.78 pesos per dollar, according to the prices of Mexico City as of September 2017. An exchange rate of $ 17.64 pesos per dollar was used on the same
date.
* Ochoa, R. “Para entender: la reforma al sector eléctrico”, Nostra ediciones, Ciudad de México, México 2015.
Source: PAESE, with information of CFE, MIT, Pemex, EcoVehículos, Banco de México y el Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP). 15The price of batteries represents one third of the value of an electric vehicle.
However, the cost has decreased more than half since 2008. It is estimated that
market leaders have prices close to $ 300 per kWh, a value that was projected to
reach until 2020.
Evolution and projections of battery prices
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
Price (USD / kWh)
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
X=$245
$200
$0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Promedio
Average Varianza estadística
Statistical enprices
variance in los precios (intervalo deintervals)
(95% confidence confianza de 95%)
16
Source: U.S. Department of Energy.The cars in Mexico travel an average of 41 kilometers * per day. The autonomy of
electric cars is sufficient for daily use. Additionally, the recharge times have been
reduced significantly. The autonomy of electric and hybrid cars in the country ranges
from 130 to 470 kilometers.
Rechargeable electric and hybrid cars with their autonomy
* Average daily distance
traveled in Mexico: 41 km
Panamera S E-Hybrid 901
X5 xDrive40e 869
Cayenne S E-Hybrid 772
Volt 676
Híbridos
Average
918 Spyder 676
autonomy: 644 km
XC90 PHEV 563
330 e 563
i8 531
BMW
i3 Rex 241
BYD
Modelo S P90D 473
Chevrolet
Modelo X P90D 414
Modelo S 377 Nissan
Modelo 3 345 Porsche
e6 301 Average
Tesla
autonomy: 296 km
Leaf 135
Volvo
Spark 132
i3 130
0 200 400 600 800 1000
* With information from the Institute of Transportation and Development Policies Mexico (ITDP), "The importance of reducing the use of automobiles in Mexico", 2012.
18
Source: With information from Fuel Economy, ITDP, BMW, Chevrolet, Nissan de Mexico, Renault, Porsche, Tesla and Volvo.In Mexico, the electricity rate increases as consumption increases. For this
reason, the CFE installs in the home of the owner of a plug-in car an independent
meter to invoice exclusively the consumption of the EVSE and maintain the
domestic tariff level.
Billing example with and without the installation of an additional meter
Integrated billing
$4,500 $4,279
Installation of EVSE (1 meter)
Bimonthly billing (pesos)
$4,000
$3,500
$3,000
Separate billing
$2,500 (2 meters) $2,340
$2,000
$1,500
$834
$1,000
Original billing
$500
$0
I II III IV V IV
Bimesters
Assumptions: Domestic consumption of 450 kWh and EVSE consumption of 375 kWh per quarter, equivalent to 30-40 km per day
(15-20 reloads per two months). Domestic electricity is invoiced in tariff 01. Electricity for the electric station is invoiced in tariff 02 with
additional meter and in the High Consumption Domestic Rate (DAC) without it. VAT included.
19
Source: PAESE, con information from Sistema Comercial de la CFE (SICOM).The Program for the Promotion of Electro-mobility through Investment in Recharge
Infrastructure (PEII) will boost electric mobility in México through the installation of
universal, public and free electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE)
Context:
• In Mexico, 833 electric vehicles circulate
• There are 1,133 electric stations
• This market will be enhanced with the
increase in infrastructure
Universal:
They can be used to recharge all electric and
hybrid rechargeable vehicles on the market.
Public:
The EVSEs are located in public access
buildings.
Costless:
The building where the electric station is installed
absorbs the cost of energy, making the recharge
free for the final user.
20
Source: PAESEThe fast EVSEs will connect CDMX with Guadalajara via Guanajuato and Saltillo
with the US city McAllen via Monterrey and Reynosa. They will have an
extension of 556 km and 310 km respectively.
Electrolineras de carga rápida
26
Fuente: PAESE con información de la CFE. Junio de 2017.For each electric vehicle that replaces a gasoline vehicle, the emission of 21 tons of
CO2 would be avoided over a 15-year useful life. The total benefit is estimated at
approximately $ 1,700 ($ 36,900 pesos) per car, although the benefits could be
higher.
Expected benefits
Expected results for each electric vehicle that replaces a gasoline car for 15 years (dollars per vehicle)
Efficient
Monetized
gasoline Electric vehicle Avoided costs
contamination
vehicle
Cost due to climate
$979 $442 $537
change
Cost due to local
$1,320 $119 $1,201
contamination
Total $1,738
Notes: The cost of climate change quantifies the impact that CO2 emissions would have on global warming. For this
evaluation, an intermediate price of 45 dollars established by the World Bank was used, due to the wide ranges of estimates
of the social cost of one tonne of CO2 and prices in CO2 markets. The cost of local pollution considers damage to health, to
materials and buildings, to crops and the biosphere, as well as to biodiversity and ecosystems. The vehicle park information
comes from data of the month of August 2017 of the INEGI.
Soruce: PAESE with information from ECLAC, SEMARNAT, ITDP, World Bank, IPCC, Stern Review, U.S. Department of Energy y CFE.
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