Q3 2019 DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW - REAL ESTATE SERVICES - MPM Properties
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REAL ESTATE SERVICES DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2019
FOREWORD
MPM Real Estate Services comprises a comprehensive real estate and advisory platform
providing the full range of professional services from a single provider. Our services include:-
Real estate financing Valuation
Strategic development advisory Agency
Investment advisory Market research
Asset management Property management
Project management Facilities management
Residential of the total new addition, 63% falls under single ownership
status and the rest 27% being strata office space. Few of the
During Q2 2018 close to 5,150 new units were added taking the prime office towers added during H1 2018 include the Exchange
total residential stock of Dubai to 529,000 units. The majority of Tower in Dubai International Financial Centre and HSBC Tower in
the new supply 74% comprised of apartments and the rest 24% Downtown Dubai.
were villas and townhouses.
Office rents continue to soften with average rents deflating by
The average apartment sale rates for completed properties 3% quarter-on-quarter and 5% year-on-year. With 1.9 million
dropped by 2% quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year while sq.ft. of office supply scheduled for delivery during second half of
villas/townhouses recorded a rental decline of 1% quarter-on- the year, the market is expected to see further softening of rents.
quarter and 6% year-on-year. The villa/townhouses within
Jumeirah Park and Al Furjan recorded the highest annual decline Retail
of 9% and 10% respectively.
During H1 2018, c. 1.0 million sq.ft. GLA retail space entered the
Transaction value of completed residential properties reached market taking the total retail stock of Dubai to 36.4 million sq.ft.
AED5.69 billion up from AED4.84 billion recorded in Q1 2018. GLA. Few of the new retail centres to open include the Springs
Business Bay area topped in transaction value with AED886 Souk and Lulu Hypermarket in Al Warqa.
million worth of transactions accounting for 16% of the total
transactions followed by Palm Jumeirah accounting for 12% of Rising supply and softening demand is exerting pressure on the
the transactions. occupancy and rental rates. Although, prime malls continue to
record strong occupancy and footfall levels, it is the secondary
The average apartment rents during Q2 2018 dropped by 3% malls that are facing the brunt of rising supply
quarter-on-quarter and 9% year-on-year. However, the rate of
decline varied by location with areas such as Discovery Gardens, Hospitality
Al Furjan, Dubai Production City, Dubai Sports City and Culture
Village recording a decline of over 12% year-on-year. During Q2 2018, c.2,000 new hotel rooms were added to the
hospitality market taking the total stock to over 110,000 rooms/
Office apartments. Despite the addition of several budget properties,
the hospitality market continues to be dominated by 5 star and
The office market continues to remain under pressure with sale 4 star properties which account for 57% of the existing stock.
and rental deflating further due to weak demand. The worst
affected are ageing buildings and strata office space across key YTD May 2018 hotel guests recorded a modest decline of 1.3%
freehold locations of Business Bay and Jumeirah Lake Towers. with India remaining the top source market 963,000 guests
recording a 2% increase year-on-year. The highest increase
Demand for strata office space remains relatively weak despite in hotel guests was of Russian tourists which increased from
attractive sale rates. Office sale rates dropped by 3% year- 221,000 to 391,000 YTD May 2018, representing a 77% increase.
on-year with a marginal change of 1% quarter-on-quarter. The
highest decline was noticed in Business Bay and Dubai Marina During Q2 2018, Dubai hotels reported a strong occupancy
wherein rates dropped by 5% year-on-year. of over 80% while the average room rates declined by 6%
compared to the same period in 2017. The hotel performances
Dubai’s office stock as of H1 2018 account for 97.5 million sq.ft. are expected to decline further as the market is heading towards
with close to 1.5 million sq.ft. space being added during H1 2018. summer period which historically remained very quiet.
2
MPM PROPERTIES FACTS AND FIGURES
160+
TOTAL UAE STAFF
95+
PROPERTY MANAGEMENT STAFF
30+
ADVISORY STAFF
35+
LEASING & SALES STAFF
No.1
LARGEST ABU DHABI
MAINLAND PORTFOLIO
1,700
LANDLORD CLIENTS
23,500+
UNITS UNDER MANAGEMENT
20+ 98.5%
DEDICATED VALUATION OCCUPANCY RATE
PROFESSIONALS
90bn
COMBINED MARKET VALUE OF PROPERTIES
7,600+
MORTGAGE VALUATIONS
VALUED SINCE JANUARY 2012 SINCE JANUARY 2012
CONTENTS
Demand Drivers 4
Macro Trends 6
Residential Sector 8
Office Sector 14
Retail Sector 20
Hospitality Sector 22
Definitions & Methodology 24
Contact Information 25
Supply - Photo Gallery 26
Development Location Map 28
3
Q3 2019 REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW
DEMAND DRIVERS
GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES
ATTRACTING ENTREPRENEURS; IMPROVING EASE OF DOING BUSINESS
The UAE Cabinet has approved several changes low cost insurance scheme. As per the new reforms,
towards relaxing visa and business systems which could a bank guarantee of AED3,000 per private sector
assist in boosting the overall economic and business employee will be replaced by low cost insurance
environment of the country. The changes announced scheme of AED60 per year. The insurance policy will
include: cover the worker’s end of service benefits, vacation
allowance, overtime allowance, unpaid wages,
¥ A 10 years visa for specialists (Doctors and return air ticket and cases of work injury coverage of
Engineers) and their families associated with AED20,000 per person. Other visa and labour reforms
working in medicine, science, research and approved by the UAE Cabinet include:
technical fields. Similar visa tenure is also being
announced for foreign investors setting up ¥ Free 48-hour visas for transit tourists extendable
business or investing in the country; up to 96 hours at a fee of AED50;
¥ 100% foreign ownership in selected sectors of the ¥ Two year visas for talented and outstanding
economy; students to stay after graduation;
¥ Five year visas for students studying in the country ¥ New six month visa for job seekers who
and 10 years visa for exceptional graduates. overstayed their visa but wish to work in the
country.
The Dubai Executive Council has approved proposals
to slash fees in education, aviation and real estate ¥ Individuals overstaying their visa a chance to leave
sectors to boost the Emirate’s economy. Within the the country voluntarily without a ‘no entry’ stamp
education sector, the Council put a freeze on all private on their passport;
school fees for the academic year 2018-2019. Dubai
Municipality to slash its market fees from 5% to 2.5%; ¥ Individuals who entered country illegally a chance
Dubai Land Department will waive off late payment to leave with a ‘no entry’ stamp for 2 years, if they
fees of 4% imposed on late property registration and present return ticket;
19 fees relating to aviation sector will be scrapped.
¥ Individuals wishing to adjust or renew their visa
The UAE Cabinet has approved replacing of bank to do so for a fee, without having to leave and
guarantee system for private sector employees with a re-enter the country.
REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTION
HEALTHY INVESTOR INTEREST FOR LARGE AND SMALL ASSETS
Nakheel Properties and Al Nasr Cultural and Sports Club have Dubai, a student housing community in the Dubai International
partnered to construct a AED300 million mall in Al Khawaneej Academic City. The project will have over 1,820 multi-sized fully
area. The new mall will be managed by Nakheel Malls comprises furnished rooms with en-suite bathrooms and wi-fi facilities
of a ground plus three storey structure with ground floor and offer access to kitchens and common lounges on each
offering parking space for 700 vehicles while the upper floors will floor. The 58,000 sq.m. facility will have designated study
accommodate shops, restaurants, food court, entertainment zone lounge area, outdoor amphitheatre, restaurants, cafes, gaming
and cinema complex. The new mall will have a built up area of rooms, gymnasium, swimming pools, squash court, basketball
775,000 sq.ft. and a leasable area of 330,000 sq.ft. and outdoor jogging track. The development will have separate
spaces for men and women and is expected to be completed by
FIM Partners, a Dubai-based emerging and frontier markets 2020.
investment management specialist plans to build The Myriad
4REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2019
TOURISM INITIATIVES
Acting upon the directives of His Highness Sheikh Abdulaziz Al Saud Street in the Mina Seyahi area will
Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the Vice President, house two cruise terminal buildings with a capacity
Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, H.H. Sheikh Hamdan to accommodate upto three cruise ships and 13,200
bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince passengers at a time.
of Dubai and Chairman of Dubai Executive Council, has
ordered to cut municipality fees on sales at restaurants Figures from the Department of Tourism and
and hotels from 10% to 7%. The move is aimed at Commerce Marketing (Dubai Tourism) indicate a
reducing the cost of doing business and promoting the marginal in visitors to Dubai YTD May 2018 versus
emirate as a favourite business destination worldwide. the same period last year. During the period YTD May
2018, Dubai had 7.16 million overnight visitors, 22%
His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al from Western European countries, 17% from South Asia
Maktoum, the Vice President, Prime Minister and and 16% from GCC Countries. In terms of top source
Ruler of Dubai, has approved plans to make the Dubai market, India ranks top with 963,000 visitors followed
Cruise Terminal the main hub in the emirate. Dubai by Saudi Arabia with 630,000 visitors and the United
Harbour which will be located on King Salman bin Kingdom remained third with 531,000 visitors.
TRANSPORTATION
IMPROVING ACCESSIBILITY AND REACH IN DUBAI; CREATING JOBS
Nakheel Properties has awarded a AED 447 million Shindagha Corridor project extending 13 km along
contract to Wade Adams Contracting LLC for the Sheikh Rashid Street. The bridge which is designed
construction of a 12-lane bridge connecting the on the mathematical symbol for infinity consists
Dubai mainland with Deira Islands. The bridge of six lanes in each direction and extends about
starts at Al Khaleej Road on the mainland and 295 metres, of which 150 metres is over the Dubai
leads to Deira Islands A, where Deira Islands Night Creek.
Souk, Deira Mall and RIU and Centara resorts are
currently under construction. The bridge work is Dubai International Airport handled 6.58 million
expected to be completed in Q2 2020. passengers in May 2018, down by 3.8% compared
to 6.85 million passengers in May 2017. YTD May
Belhasa Six Construct, part of the Belgian BESIX 2018, passenger traffic dropped marginally by 0.1%
Group has been awarded the Shindagha Bridge to 36.94 million passengers, down from 36.96
contract work valued at AED394 million. The million passengers during the same period last year.
bridge is part of the third phase of the AED 5 billion
FREEZONES
SIGNING UP NEW TENANTS; CREATING EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
The French Business Council of Dubai and Northern to build partnerships among peers and help them
Emirates opened a Business Centre in Dubai Silicon accelerate their growth.
Oasis inorder to attract French companies to the
UAE. The centre will help French companies in DIFC announced completion of the AED 180
setting up operations in Dubai by providing office million office tower ‘The Exchange building’. The
space and administrative assistance. In addition, its building comprises of five basement levels, ground
members benefit from networking opportunities plus eight typical floors offering 114,000 sq.ft.
with other partners, and privileged access to 100 of office space and 33,000 sq.ft. of retail space.
annual events, as well as FBC’s mentoring program Nasdaq Dubai remains the key tenant by leasing
“ Synergy Club” – an entrepreneurs’ club aspiring 84% of the building space.
5Q3 2019 REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW
MACRO TRENDS
DUBAI GDP SHARE BREAKDOWN BY ECONOMIC
SECTORS -YTD
4%
Wholesale & Retail Trade
22% 26% Real Estate & Construction
Transportation & Communication
Manufacturing
Financial Sector
11%
Government & others
13%
9% Hotels & Restaurants
15%
Source: Dubai Statistics Center and MPM Properties Research
DUBAI POPULATION (GROWTH & HOUSEHOLD SIZE)
3.0 8.0
(MILLIONS)
2.5 7.0
AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE
GROWTH RATE (%PA)
6.0
2.0 5.0
1.5 4.0
POPULATION
1.0 3.0
2.0
2.44
2.00
2.90
2.69
2.32
1.90
2.10
2.21
3.08
1.77
0.5
1.0
0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
Population Growth Rate Household Size
Source: Dubai Statistics Center
DUBAI CONSTRUCTION DUBAI CPI VS RENTAL
ACTIVITY %YoY CONTRIBUTION TO CPI Q2 2018
25% 120
20%
15% 115
10%
%YoY
5%
110
0%
-5%
-10% 105
-15%
-20% 100
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018e
Jan-15
Jul
Jan-16
Jul
Jan-17
Jul
Jan-18
GDP Construction Housing
CPI Contribution
Source: Dubai Statistics Center to CPI
Source: Dubai Statistics Center
6REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2019
INVESTOR ANALYSIS
DUBAI LAND TRANSACTIONS DUBAI LAND TRANSACTIONS
VOLUME vs VALUE QoQ% CHANGE
12,000 30,000
80%
10,000 25,000 60%
Value (in Millions)
40%
8,000 20,000
Transactions
20%
6,000 15,000 0%
4,000 10,000 -20%
-40%
2,000 5,000
-60%
0 0 -80%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 -100% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sales Value Sales Transactions
Sales Transactions
* Established Real estate
Source: DLD and MPM Properties Research Source: DLD and MPM Properties Research
BROAD NATIONALITIES INVESTING IN DUBAI PROPERTY IN H1 2018
40
35
Value (AED' Billions)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
GCC Arab Foreign UAE India Saudi Arabia
Source: DLD
TOP LOCATIONS - RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTION VALUE
800
600
Transaction Value
AED million
400
200
100
0
Emirates
Living
Downtown
Dubai
Dubai
Marina
Jumeirah
Beach
Residence
Palm
Jumeirah
Arabian
Ranches
Jumeirah
Lakes Towers
Dubai
Sports City
Jumeirah
Village
Business Bay
Q1 2018 Q2 2018
Source: DLD
7Q3 2019 REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY
During Q2 2018 close to 5,150 new units were Within freehold areas, Dubai Sports City
added taking the total residential stock of remained active with 17% followed by
Dubai to 529,000 units. The majority of the Jumeirah Village Circle and Jumeirah Village
new supply 74% comprised of apartments Triangle accounting for 16% of the total
and the rest 24% were villas and townhouses. supply. Over 1,200 units were handed over
in Dubai Marina taking its share to 9% while
Over 30,000 new units are expected to be Dubai Silicon Oasis and Al Furjan accounted
completed during the course of 2018, of for 8% and 6% respectively.
which over 13,000 units have already have
delivered during H1 2018. The highest supply Over 6,000 off-plan properties were launched
of units during H1 2018 was from leasehold during Q2 2018, notable among these
areas accounting for 20% of the total new projects include Tilal Al Ghaf by Majid Al
supply. Al Warqa area which comprises of Futtaim Properties, Se7en City by Seven Tides
low to mid rise buildings accounted for 8% of in the Z cluster of Jumeirah Lakes Towers and
the total supply and 38% of the supply from the Lawnz by Danube Properties.
leasehold areas.
RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY BY UNITS 2013-2020
YoY 1.9% 3.1% 2.7% 3.1% 4.0% 2.6% 3.3% 4.8%
4 4 6
600 3 1.2 4.2 4 2 13 22 17
11 11 15 11
14
500 8.5
400
300
444 452 469 481 496 516 529 529 554
200
100
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 H2 2019 2020
2018 2018
Existing Supply Apartments Supply Villas +% Change
Source: MPM Properties Research
8REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2019
SAMPLE OF RESIDENTIAL UPCOMING PROJECTS
LOCATION PROPERTY NAME
Business Bay The Pad
Dubai Motor City OIA Residence
Emirates Living The Hills
Downtown Dubai Burj Vista
Arabian Ranches Samara Villas
Meydan Grand Views
Palm Jumeirah The One
Downtown Dubai Bahwan Tower
Downtown Dubai Mada Residence
SAMPLE OF ANNOUNCED PROJECTS IN Q2 2018
NAME OF PROJECT TYPE DEVELOPER LOCATION
Lawnz Apartments Danube Dubai International City
Grande Residences Apartments Emaar Downtown Dubai
Se7en City Apartments Seven Tides Jumeirah Lakes Towers
Tilal Al Ghaf Villas/townhouses Majid Al Futtaim Dubailand
Zawaya Apartments/Villas Union Properties Motor City
Genesis Apartments Meraki Developers Arjan
Belgravia Heights I & II Apartments Ellington Jumeirah Village Circle
Amaranta 3 Townhouses Dubai Properties Dubailand
9Q3 2019 REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
SALES PERFORMANCE
The average apartment sale rates for completed Transaction value of completed residential properties
properties dropped by 2% quarter-on-quarter and 6% reached AED5.69 billion up from AED4.84 billion
year-on-year. The sales decline is attributed to several recorded in Q1 2018. Business Bay area topped
factors such as ageing properties, relatively high service in transaction value with AED886 million worth
charges and multiple options across new properties. of transactions accounting for 16% of the total
transactions followed by Palm Jumeirah accounting for
The Greens development recorded the highest decline 12% of the transactions.
with rates dropping by 4% quarter-on-quarter and 9%
year-on-year while Jumeirah Beach Residence recorded The off-plan properties recorded a decline in
8% decline year-on-year. Similarly the Shoreline transaction value and volume during the H1 2018.
apartments on the Palm and the Views in Emirates The total value of transaction during H1 2018 were
Living recorded a 7% decline each. AED12.69 billion as compared to AED16.88 billion
in H1 2017, a decline of 25% year-on-year. Business
The villas/townhouses recorded a decline of 1% Bay topped with AED1.57 billion worth of transaction
quarter-on-quarter and 6% year-on-year. The villa/ followed by Downtown Dubai (AED1.17 billion)
townhouses within Jumeirah Park and Al Furjan and Dubai Marina (AED1.06 billion). Within new
recorded the highest declines largely due to emergence masterplan developments Dubai Creek Harbour
of new supply from within the development. Sale rates saw transactions worth AED0.94 billion followed by
in Al Furjan dropped by 3% quarter-on-quarter and Mohammed bin Rashid City with AED0.84 billion off-
10% year-on-year while properties in Jumeirah Park plan transactions.
dropped by 9% year-on-year.
APARTMENT AVERAGE SALES PRICES (Q2 2018)
AND PERCENTAGE CHANGE
QoQ -1.3% -0.0% -1.4% -3.4% -3.4% -1.9% -1.7% -2.0% -4.3%
YoY -6% -6% -3% -7% -7% -5% -4% -8% -9%
2,000
1,800
AED/sq.ft.
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
1,900
1,700
1,700
1,400
600
1,400
1,300
1,100
1,225
1,175
400
200
0
Downtown
Dubai
Old
Town
DIFC
Palm
Jumeirah
The
Views
Dubai
Marina
Business
Bay
Jumeirah
Beach
Residence
The
Greens
Source: MPM Properties Research
10REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2019
RENTAL PERFORMANCE
The residential rental rates continue to remain under stress In the leasehold areas, Al Nahda and Deira areas recorded
as supply over stripping demand. On an average residential the highest decline of over 10% year-on-year. Increase
rates dropped by 3% quarter-on-quarter and 8% year- in supply across the border areas of Dubai and Sharjah
on-year. However, looking at pipeline supply and weak resulted in rental deflation in these areas. Rents for two
demand, we expect further rental decline during the course bedrooms in Deira declined by 13.3%, dropping from
of the year. AED78,000-95,000 in Q2 2017 to AED65,000-85,000 per
annum in Q2 2018.
The average apartment rents during Q2 2018 dropped by
3% quarter-on-quarter and 9% year-on-year. However, The villa/townhouse rents dropped by 2% quarter-on-
the rate of decline varied by location with areas such quarter and 9% year-on-year. The highest rental decline
as Discovery Gardens, Al Furjan, Dubai Production City was recorded across Warsan Village, Living Legends and
(formerly IMPZ), Dubai Sports City and Culture Village Sustainable City developments wherein the rates dropped
recording a decline of over 12% year-on-year. by an average of 14.5% year-on-year. Rents for four
bedroom villa dropped from an average of AED150,000 per
Ongoing construction activity and increase in supply annum in Q2 2017 to AED130,000 per annum, recording a
of mid-market units resulted in a sharp decline in rents decline of 13.3%. In non-freehold areas, Mirdiff recorded a
in Culture Village development. A one bedroom unit is highest decline of 11.5% year-on-year.
currently achieving a rent in the range of AED 65,000-
80,000 per unit per annum as compared to AED 80,000- The rental deflation and rising vacancy rates is leading to
90,000 per unit per annum during the same period last increase in landlord incentives. Landlords are now flexible
year resulting in a decline of 14.7% year-on-year. Similarly, for rent negotiation to retain existing tenants as well as
rent for studios in Dubai Production City range from AED offering rent free period of 1-2 months along with relaxed
30,000-36,000 per annum as compared to AED 36,000- payment terms of 6 to 12 cheques for new and existing
42,000 per annum, a decline of 15.4% year-on-year. tenants.
AVERAGE APARTMENT ANNUAL RENTS Q2 2018
LOCATION STUDIO 1BR 2BR 3BR Q-ON-Q Y-ON-Y
Business Bay 54 73 103 148 -3.84% -9.19%
DIFC 68 100 135 193 -3.88% -6.95%
Discovery Gardens 39 56 83 - -4.04% -12.69%
Downtown Dubai 63 98 130 193 -3.79% -8.52%
Dubai Marina 58 80 113 163 -4.82% -9.59%
Greens 55 73 110 138 -4.44% -11.96%
International City 28 42 57 76 -5.10% -11.99%
Jumeirah Beach Res-
68 95 120 160 -3.35% -7.32%
idence
Jumeirah Lakes Towers 52 78 103 130 -3.10% -10.69%
Palm Jumeirah 70 100 135 165 -5.09% -10.51%
Barsha Heights 50 70 93 120 -1.77% -10.70%
Source: MPM Properties Research
11Q3 2019 REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
AVERAGE VILLA SALE PRICE AED/ sq.ft. Q2 2018
QoQ 0% -2% -2% 0% 0% -3% -2% -3%
YoY -4% -4% -5% -7% -9% -5% -5% -10%
2,500
2,000
AED/sq.ft
1,500
2,300
1,000
1,225
1,050
1,000
500
975
975
900
875
0
Palm Jumeirah
The
Lakes
Dubai
Sports City
Arabian
Ranches
Jumeirah
Park
Springs
& Meadows
Jumeirah
Village
Al Furjan
Source: MPM Properties Research
AVERAGE VILLA ANNUAL RENTS Q2 2018
PROJECT 2 BEDROOM 3 BEDROOM 4 BEDROOM 5 BEDROOM Q.O.Q Y.O.Y
Al Furjan - 143 165 190 -4.30% -10.58%
Arabian Ranches 128 160 205 265 -1.92% -8.43%
Dubai Sports City - 160 185 245 -1.18% -5.38%
Jumeirah Park - - 198 250 -1.92% -9.70%
Jumeirah Village 120 135 147.5 165 -2.74% -9.20%
Meadows - 200 215 255 -1.44% -6.28%
Palm Jumeirah - 295 375 430 -2.60% -6.84%
Springs 112.5 153 - - -2.67% -6.90%
Jumeirah Islands - - 252.5 325 -1.25% -8.30%
Jumeirah Golf Estates - 205 280 320 -3.15% -10.98%
Source: MPM Properties Research
12REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2019
NON-INVESTMENT VILLA VALUES Q2 2018
22.0
25.0
AED (Million) 20.0 12.5
15.3
15.0 9.3
8.5
7.5 6.0 7.0
10.0 5.5 5.5
3.5 4.5
5.0
0
Mirdif Al Barsha Umm Suqeim Al Warqa
Low High Average
Source: MPM Properties Research
NON-INVESTMENT VILLA RENTS Q2 2018
300 230
225
220
250 190 190 205
AED (Million)
155 165
200 148 133
130
150 108
100
50
0
Mirdif Al Barsha Umm Suqeim Al Warqa
3 Bed 4 Bed 5 Bed
Source: MPM Properties Research
NON-INVESTMENT LAND VALUES Q2 2018
1,000
850
800 700
AED / Sq.ft.
600 550
400 363 375
400 300
338 320
325 270
220
200
0
Mirdif Al Barsha Umm Suqeim Al Warqa
Low High Average
Source: MPM Properties Research
13Q3 2019 REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW
OFFICE SECTOR
OFFICE SUMMARY
The office market continues to remain under first half of the year to 1.5 million sq.ft. Of the total
pressure with sale and rental deflating further due office space added during H1 2018, 63% falls under
to weak demand. The worst affected are ageing single ownership status and the rest 27% being strata
buildings and strata office space across key freehold office space which mainly emanated from the Opus
locations of Business Bay and Jumeirah Lake Towers. office tower in Business Bay. Few of the new additions
The capital values in few of the office towers in these during the quarter include the Exchange Tower in
two locations have reached as low as AED 650 per Dubai International Financial Centre and HSBC Tower
sq.ft. However, single held office assets with strong in Downtown Dubai.
tenant covenant remain in demand, as investors are
on a look for office assets which offer a net yield of Key office projects slated for delivery during the
6-8%. course of the year include Huawei building and Phase
1 of Innovation Hub in Tecom, Silicon Park in Dubai
Dubai’s office stock as of H1 2018 account for 97.5 Silicon Oasis and Dubai Science Park HQ building.
million sq.ft. with close to a million sq.ft. being added
during Q2 2018 taking the total additions for the
DUBAI OFFICE STOCK (2008 - 2020)
120 2.2
1.5 1.9 3.3
3.5 2.1
6.8
100 2.5
6.0 0.2
6.0
80 10.0
Million sq.ft.
8.0
6.0
60
94 96 98 99 103
84 91
40 75 81 81
59 69
51
20 45
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 H2 2019 2020
2018 2018
Stock Expected *More office projects with handover dates delayed
14REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2019
OFFICE SALES
Demand for strata office space remains relatively million as compared to AED968.4 million, a decline
weak despite attractive sale rates. The office sale rates of 12% year-on-year. The average value of transaction
dropped by 3% year-on-year with a marginal change dropped from AED1,127 per sq.ft. in H1 2017 to
of 1% quarter-on-quarter. The highest decline was AED985 per sq.ft. in H1 2018.
noticed in Business Bay and Dubai Marina wherein
rates dropped by 5% year-on-year. The office sale Business Bay, Jumeirah Lakes Towers and Downtown
rates across key freehold office locations of Business Dubai remained the most active in terms of office
Bay and Jumeirah Lakes Towers dipped to as low as transactions. Together these three developments
AED650 per sq.ft. accounted for 80% of the transactions with Business
Bay recording AED256 million followed by Jumeirah
Compared to H1 2017, the office transactions declined Lake Towers with AED247 million and Downtown
both in value and volume terms. The total value of Dubai recording AED162 million worth of office
office transactions during H1 2018 was AED851.7 transactions.
OFFICE RENTS
Office rents continue to soften with average rents has been mainly due to consolidation and movement
deflating by 3% quarter-on-quarter and 5% year-on- of tenants to newer areas which offer competitive
year. With 1.9 million sq.ft. of office supply scheduled rates.
for delivery during second half of the year, the market
is expected to see further softening of rents. The Secondary and freehold locations of Business
Bay, Jumeirah Lakes Towers (JLT) and Barsha Heights
Office towers along Sheikh Zayed road with falls have recorded a marginal decline of 4% year-on-year.
under the CBD corridor saw rents dropping by 6% Due to the ownership status rents in these locations
quarter-on-quarter and 13% year-on-year. Average have been on a lower end, hence no major fluctuation
rents in the area in Q2 2018 ranged from AED 80-150 over the past 12 months. Average rents in these areas
per sq.ft. compared to AED85-180 per sq.ft. during the currently range from AED60-140 per sq.ft. per annum
same period last year. Similarly rents in Downtown (all inclusive).
Dubai area dropped by 3% quarter-on-quarter and
14% year-on-year. Although, the area has witnessed
restricted supply over the past one year, the decline
15Q3 2019 REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW
OFFICE SECTOR
OFFICE AVERAGE SALE PRICES Q2 2018
QoQ 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0%
YoY -4.0% -1.0% -5.0% -5.0% -3.0% -3.0%
2,500
2,000
AED / sq.ft.
1,500
1,000 2,000
1,725
1,400
500 1,000 950 875
0
Downtown DIFC Dubai Business Jumeirah Barsha
Dubai Marina Bay Lake Towers Heights
The Palm Burj Al A
Jebel Ali Port Jumeirah
DIC & DMC
Dubai Marina
RENT = AED 120 - AED 175 /sq.ft.
Sheikh Zayed Rd. Media / Internet
City Al Sufouh
Jumeirah Lake
Jebel Ali Village The Towers The
Gardens Greens Barsha
Jebel Ali Freezone The Meadows Heights
The
Discovery Lakes
She
ikh Z
JUMEIRAH LAKESJumeirah
Gardens TOWERS
Islands
RENT = AED 55 - AED 190 /sq.ft. Emirates Hills
ayed
Umm Suqeim Road
Rd. BARSHA HEIGHTS
AVG. SALE = AED 975 /sq.ft. RENT = AED 70 - AED 110 /sq.ft.
Jumeirah
Jebel Ali
Park The Springs AVG. SALE = AED Al
900Barsha
/sq.ft.
Industrial Area
Jumeirah
TO d. Village
ed R
ABU DHABI Zay Jumeirah
dB
in Jumeirah Golf
hame Estates Village South
Mo
ikh
She Dubai IMPZ Sh
eik
Investment hM
Park 1 oh
am
Jumeirah Golf ed
Estates Dubai Bin
Za
Sport City ye
d Rd
Dubai Motor .
Investment City
Dubai World Central Airport Park 2
16
Legen
Arabian
Dubai RanchesREAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2019
OFFICE RENTS AED/sq.ft. Q2 2018
350
300
250
AED/sq.ft.
200
340
150
190
180
100
150
175
130
125
130
120
105
50 85
70
65
55
0
DIFC
Downtown
Dubai
Sheikh
Zayed Rd
Business
Bay
Jumeirah
Lake Towers
Barsha
Heights
DIC & DMC
High Low
Source: MPM Properties Research
The World
The Palm Deira
Port Rashid
Arab
DOWNTOWN DUBAI Al Raffa
Jumeirah Al Mamzar
RENT = AED 130 - AED 240 /sq.ft. Naif
Umm Suqeim Satwa
AlAVG.
WaslSALE = AED 2,050 /sq.ft.
Al Safa
Karama Rigga
ed Rd.
S heikh Zay Emirates Towers
Burj Khalifa Oud
DIFC Port Saeed
SHEIKH ZAYED
AlRD.
Quoz DIFC Metha
Al Quoz RENT = AED 125 - AED 340 /sq.ft.
IndustrialRENT
Area = AED 85 - AED 180 /sq.ft.
Business Bay Za’abeelAVG. SALE = AED 1,750 /sq.ft.
Al Qusais
The Dubai
BUSINESS BAY Lagoons
Garhoud International
Al Khail Road RENT = AED 65 - AED 135 /sq.ft. Airport
AVG. SALE = AED 1,050 /sq.ft.
Al Marqadh
Festival
City
Nad Al Sheba Ras Al Khor TO
SHARJAH
Al
Kh
ail
Ro
a d
Al Barari
19
17
nds Nad Al
Sheba 2
MurdifQ3 2019 REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW
RETAIL SECTOR
RETAIL
Q2 2018 saw the opening of the Springs rising supply. However, the mall owners are
Souk and Lulu Hypermarket in Al Warqa with quick to react to the changing preferences
a cumulative space of 338,000 sq.ft. GLA. of the shoppers and are revamping the retail
During H1 2018, close to a million sq.ft. GLA offerings and mix in order to provide relatively
retail space entered the market taking the new shopping experience to the shoppers.
total retail stock of Dubai to 36.4 million sq.ft.
GLA. Further 2.0 million sq.ft. GLA retail space The retail sector remained buoyant during
is under final stages of construction which is the quarter with strong sales recorded at
expected to be completed during H2 2018. the back drop of festive period and sales
promotions offered by the retailers. The
Rising supply and softening demand is exerting retailers were well supported by mall operators
pressure on the occupancy and rental rates. who have elongating the operating hours to
Although, prime malls continue to record accommodate increase in footfalls.
strong occupancy and footfall levels, it is the
secondary malls that are facing the brunt of
PRIME SHOPPING MALL AVERAGE RENTS – Q2 2018
1,200
1,100
1000
AED/sq.ft.
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Cinema
Mini Majors
Anchors
Flagships
Restaurants
Hypermarket
Line Shops
Food Court
Source: MPM Properties Research
20
18REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2019
DUBAI RETAIL MALLS GLA BY AREA Q2 2018 DUBAI RETAIL SUPPLY (PRE-2010)
3% 8% 3% 11.8%
5%
3% 19%
34%
6% 16.8%
5%
4% 10%
10% 14.4%
15%
9% 22.9%
Deira - 19% Jebel Ali - 6%
Community - 11.8%
Mirdif - 10% Jumeirah - 3%
Neighborhood - 16.8%
Business Bay - 15% Al Quoz - 6%
Regional - 14.4%
Bur Dubai - 9% Al Wasl - 2%
Sub-Regional - 22.9%
Barsha - 10% Al Warsan - 8%
Super Regional - 34%
Dubailand - 4% Other Areas - 3%
Dubai Marina - 5%
DUBAI RETAIL MALLS BY SIZE Q2 2018 NEW SUPPLY DELIVERED 2010-Q2 2018
21%
26%
31%
31%
15% 6%
17% 17% 20%
15%
Neighborhood - 21% Neighborhood - 31%
Community - 15% Community - 20%
Regional - 15% Regional - 17%
Sub-Regional - 17% Sub-Regional - 6%
Super Regional - 31% Super Regional - 26%
Source: MPM Properties Research
DUBAI RETAIL MALL STOCK (2010 - 2020)
50 3.4
4.8
3.1
(Millions)
1.8 1.0 0.9
40 2.6
0.7 0.5 0.3 1.3
2.6
30
20 35.5 36.4 39.5 44.2
GLA sq.ft.
32.6 34.5
27.9 28.4 28.7 30.0
24.5 27.1
10
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 H2 2019 2020
2018 2018
Stock Expected - *Includes all retail malls with a GLA greater than 25,000 sq.ft.
21
19
Source: MPM Properties ResearchQ3 2019 REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW
HOSPITALITY SECTOR
HOTEL
During Q2 2018, c.2,000 new hotel rooms During Q2 2018, Dubai hotels reported a
were added to the hospitality market taking strong occupancy of over 80% while the
the total stock to over 110,000 rooms/ average room rates declined by 6% compared
apartments. Despite the addition of several to the same period in 2017. The hotel
budget properties, the hospitality market performances are expected to decline further
continues to be dominated by 5 star and 4 as the market is heading towards summer
star properties which account for 57% of the period which historically remained very quiet.
existing stock. The most notable addition
was the QE2 which is stationed at Port Rashid However, the government has relaxed norms
offering a total 224 rooms. to boost tourism number during this period
by exempting visa fees for children visiting
YTD May 2018 hotel guests recorded the country during the period July 15 to
a modest decline of 1.3% with India September 15 every year. Furthermore, the
remaining the top source market 963,000 Government of Dubai has ordered reduction
guests recording a 2% increase year-on- of municipality fees on sales at restaurants
year. The highest increase in hotel guests and hotels from 10% to 7%, a move aimed at
was of Russian tourists which increased reducing the cost of doing business in Dubai
from 221,000 to 391,000 YTD May 2018, and support the tourism sector.
representing a 77% increase.
DUBAI HOTEL ROOMS SUPPLY (2012 - 2020)
150 8.0
8.4
4.9 4.0 4.7
120 6.8
8 4.7
No. of Rooms ('000s)
1 4
90
117 126
60 97 104 108 112
84 92
79 80
30
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 H2 2019 2020
2018 2018
Existing Supply New Supply
Source: MPM Properties Research
20
22REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2019
DUBAI HOTELS PERFORMANCE - 2018 YTD
1,200 100.0%
1,100 90.0%
1,000 80.0%
900
70.0%
800
Occupancy
700 60.0%
AED
600 50.0%
500 40.0%
400 30.0%
300
20.0%
200
100
10.0%
0 0%
Jan-14
May
Sep
Oct
Jan-15
May
Sep
Jan-16
May
Sep
Jan-17
May
Sep
Jan-18
Mar
May
0
ADR RevPAR Occupancy
Source: MPM Properties Research
HOTELS - NEW SUPPLY Q2 2018
HOTEL NAME LOCATION STAR DATE NUMBER OF KEYS
Form Hotel Al Jaddaf 3 2018 136
Rove Dubai Dubai Marina 4 2018 384
Aloft City Centre Deira 4 2018 333
Roda Links Al Nasr Oud Metha 3 2018 114
Canal Central Hotel Business Bay 2018 278
Holiday Inn Dubai Festival City 3 2018 508
QE 2 Bur Dubai 5 2018 224
SAMPLE OF UPCOMING SUPPLY
HOTEL NAME LOCATION STAR DATE NUMBER OF KEYS
Waldorf Astoria Dubai International Financial Centre 5 2018 247
Emirates Palace Kempinski hotel Palm Jumeirah 5 2018 389
Me by Melia Business Bay 4 2018 93
Royal Central Hotel Palm Jumeirah 5 2018 207
Zabeel House Al Seef Bur Dubai 4 2018 200
23
21Q3 2019 REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW
DEFINITIONS & METHODOLOGY
RESEARCH STUDY AREA
The geographic extent of the study area covers the incentives that may have been negotiated between
key districts in Dubai. the parties. The rents quoted are also exclusive of
service charges.
RESIDENTIAL
RETAIL
New residential developments are classified as
delivered and thus entered into the new supply New retail developments are classified as delivered
category when they are made available for and thus entered into the new supply category
occupation. This is verified via a combination of when the first units are open and trading.
site inspections and discussion with the developer
and hence our supply numbers do take into Our classification of malls is based on our
consideration the phased release of large projects. own assessment having regard to size and
the catchment area which the mall typically
Rental and sales trend analysis is based on penetrates.
transactional data derived from the MPM
Properties Agency team and data sourced from HOSPITALITY
developers and owners.
New hotels are classified as delivered and thus
OFFICES entered into the new supply category when they
are opened and trading. All trading performance
New office developments are classified as delivered data is provided by DTCM.
and thus entered into the new supply category
when they are available for tenant fit-outs. FUTURE SUPPLY PROJECTIONS
Given the general lack of transparency in the Our future supply projections across all sectors are
local market rents quoted are headline rents, thus based on a combination of regular site inspections
exclude any rent free period of other financial and discussions with developers.
BESPOKE CLIENT RESEARCH
ADDING VALUE TO YOUR PROPERTY INTERESTS
The ADIB Real Estate Services team covers all We provide reports, information and presentations
sectors of the real estate market. We provide derived from primary market data that directly assist
bespoke market research to our valued clients to our clients to save or make money from real estate
meet their specific requirements. and shape strategies to enhance value.
DISCLAIMER:
The information contained in this report has been obtained to change without notice. Figures contained in this report are
from and is based upon sources that MPM Properties believes derived from a basket of locations highlighted in this report
to be reliable, however, no warranty or representation, and therefore represent a snapshot of the Dubai market.
expressed or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness Due care and attention has been used in the preparation
of the information contained herein, and same is submitted of forecast information. However, actual results may vary
subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other from forecasts and any variation may be materially positive
conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special or negative. Forecasts, by their very nature, involve risk
listing conditions imposed by our principals. MPM Properties and uncertainty because they relate to future events and
will not be held responsible for any third-party contributions. circumstances which are beyond MPM Properties’ control.
All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute For a full in-depth study of the market, please contact MPM
MPM Properties, as of the date of this report and are subject Properties team.
24
22REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW Q3 2019
A collaborative team providing
our integrated services
KHALID ALI ALMANSOORI CHARLES ANDREW CHAMBERS
Executive Chairman CEO
T: +971 (0)2 610 0119 T: +971 (0)2 610 0545
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khalid.almansoori@mpmproperties.ae andrew.charles@mpmproperties.ae
STEPHEN DUNCAN FORBES VAIBHAV SHARMA MCOM; MDBA
Chief Operating Officer Chief Strategy Officer
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stephen.forbes@mpmproperties.ae vaibhav.sharma@adib.com
ABDULLAH SAID AL KUWEITI PAUL MAISFIELD BSC (HONS) MRICS
Business Development Director Head of UK Real Estate
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VINEET KUMAR DOMINIC BARLOW
Director of Agency – UAE Head of Retail, Hospitality & Leisure
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M: +971 (0)50 651 6491 M: +971 (0)56 288 1458
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Regional Head – Al Ain Manager Strategic Advisory & Research
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ALI ABDULLAH ABDUL RAHMAN
JUBRAN AL HASHMI
Acting Regional Head – Northern Emirates
Head of Property Services
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aliabdullah@mpmproperties.ae
jubran@mpmproperties.ae
BALAJI NAGARAJ MSC MRICS MOHAMED AL ZOUBI
Head of Residential Valuation Head of Development Advisory
Dubai & Northern Emirates BSc Civil Engineering
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M: +971 (0)55 196 2396 M: +971 (0)50 310 3570
b.nagaraj@mpmproperties.ae mohammedalzoubi@mpmproperties.ae
25
23Q2 2018
SUPPLY - PHOTO GALLERY
NEW SUPPLY – Q2 2018
RESIDENTIAL
1 BURJ VISTA - 2 MEERA TOWER - 3 GLITZ 3 4 PARK ONE - JVT
DOWNTOWN AL HABTOOR DUBAI STUDIO CITY
CITY
OFFICE
1 HSBC TOWER 2 3
DOWNTOWN DUBAI
RETAIL
1 LULU HYPERMARKET - AL WARQA 2 1 THE SPRINGS SOUK - EMIRATES LIVING
HOTEL
1 FORM HOTEL - AL JADDAF 2 ALOFT CITY CENTRE 2 HOLIDAY INN - DUBAI 4 ROVE HOTEL
DEIRA FESTIVAL CITY DUBAI MARINA
26REAL ESTATE SERVICES | DUBAI REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW
SAMPLE OF UPCOMING PROJECTS – Q3 2018
RESIDENTIAL
1 BAHWAN TOWER 2 GREENS 1 - SOBHA 3 OIA RESIDENCE - 4 THE HILLS - 5 THE PAD -
DOWNTOWN HARTLAND MOTOR CITY EMIRATES LIVING BUSINESS BAY
DUBAITDUBAI
OFFICE
1 HUAWEI BUILDING 2 INNOVATION HUB 3 THE COURT - 4 SILICON PARK - DUBAI
TECOM TECOM BUSINESS SILICON OASIS
BAY
RETAIL
1 COMMUNITY RETAIL 2 NAKHEEL MALL 3 THE CIRCLE MALL - JVC 4 THE POINTE
CENTRE - AL BADRAH PALM JUMEIRAH PALM JUMEIRAH
HOTEL
1 WALDORF 2 ME BY MELIA 3 W HOTEL - PALM JUMEIRAH 4 ZABEEL HOUSE BY SEEF
ASTORIA - DIFC BUSINESS BAY
27Q2 2018
4
1
2
4
Jebel Ali Port
4 3
4
Barsha
Jebel Ali Freezone Heights
2
4
4
TO 3
ABU DHABI
3
3
28Q2 2018 NEW SUPPLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Residential Residential
Offices Offices
Retail Retail
Hotels Hotels
Al Mamzar
1
1
2 1 2
3 1
1
3 2
3
1 Al Qusais
2
2
1
2
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