RE-OPENING SCHOOLS POST COVID-19 - Oliver Wyman
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RE-OPENING SCHOOLS POST COVID-19 May 2020
DECREASE IN INFECTION RATES WILL ALLOW RE-OPENING OF SCHOOLS
Change in school closure figures from April to now1 Rationale for school re-openings
• Governments are easing
lockdown measures to restart
economies
• Schools critical given link to
parents re-joining the workforce
80k and contributing to the economy
• Importance to avoid further
disruptions to the academic
year, in particular for graduating
classes
Country-wide closures
Localized openings Country-wide closures Learners impacted • Singapore, Denmark, and
Germany are some of the first
April
Schools open 195 91.3%
countries to begin gradual re-
Country-wide closures Learners impacted opening of schools
153 68.5%
Now
Opening strategies include fundamental changes to logistics, processes, and procedures to ensure
preparedness for potential waves of infection
Source: UNESCO COVID-19 Impact on Education as of 20/05/20
1. From 31-Mar to 20-May – see appendix for details
© Oliver Wyman 2
CURRENT THINKING IS A STAGED APPROACH TO RE-OPENING SCHOOLS
1 Pre-opening
2 Opening
3 Post-opening
• Extensive track, trace, and testing • Openings • Close monitoring of infection rates
both through swab testing and – Staged openings with priority to with continued track/trace
purpose-built apps critical grades • Quarantine measures should
• Preparation of schools: – Staggered arrivals, lessons, and infections be detected
– Staff training with enhanced breaks • Continued education of staff,
roles for nursing staff, facilities, • School area students, and parents in
and counsellors – Temperature checks at entry maintaining hygiene practices at
– Physical space planning to – Enhanced sterilization and school and at home
ensure small groups with cleaning processes • Clear and effective communication
sufficient distance – Masks and general PPE between schools, students, and
– Scenario planning in case of distribution to students and parents
infection staff
– Planning for infection waves, • Classroom area
flexibility to shift to and from – Limiting interaction (desk
distance learning distancing, screen dividers…)
– Limiting students in classrooms
and physical space planning
Structural measures implemented will allow for eventual scaling and greater prevalence of school
openings prior to the end of the current academic year
© Oliver Wyman 3BUT PHYSICAL DISTANCING WILL MEAN A DECREASE IN PUPILS PER CLASSROOM,
INCREASING SPACE REQUIREMENTS
26 Pupils, 2.38 m2 per pupil
• Based on the UK’s baseline design for schools1 a
primary school for 210 students requires 1315m2
– Equivalent to 6.3m2 per student or 26 students per
classroom
• Should this decrease to 15 students per classroom, as
per latest guidance, classroom space requirement will
increase by 1.74X
• Expanding capacity by, for example, re-purposing
rooms such as a sports hall will still mean 30% of 15 Pupils, 4.13 m2 per pupil
students cannot be accommodated
• These figures exclude the requirements for staff and
other key workers within the school
• Thus full school re-opening will require a holistic set
of solutions to minimize additional cost whilst
fulfilling obligations to students, parents, and
teachers / staff
1 Pupil
Restrictions will mean on average 30% of students cannot be accommodated
1. Education and Skills Funding Agency, 2018
Source: GOV.UK baseline designs for schools guidance
© Oliver Wyman 4HOLISTIC SOLUTIONS NEED TO CONSIDER A VARIETY OF FACTORS TO ENSURE SAFE
RE-OPENING WITH REDUCED CLASS SIZES
Considerations to re-opening schools given space limitations
Consideration Issue Solution(s) Implications Cost Complexity
Accommodating Unable to accommodate Staggering school day • Downtime for students
all students all students at the same into shifts during the day
time due to limited • Extra teaching capacity
space required
Teacher Should school day be Extend teaching hours • Significant cost expected
numbers staggered extra teaching and/or hiring more • Risk of teaching
capacity will be needed teachers imbalance / standards
Content Reduced school day Utilize distance learning • Integration of curriculum
might mean more solutions to supplement with distance learning
content taught over lost school-time solution / infrastructure
shorter timeframe • Training of teachers,
students, and parents
Physical activity Prioritization of space Promote home exercise • Solutions required for
for teaching may impact for students as a monitoring of activity
physical education component of distance • Training of teachers, and
learning parents
Space for staff Prioritization of space External temporary • Cost associated with any
for teaching may impact office space given enhancements to space
space allocated for staff limited specifications • Outdoor space may be
compared to classrooms limited
© Oliver Wyman 5APPENDIX – SCHOOL CLOSURE APPROACHES AROUND THE WORLD
Most countries chose to close schools as a suppression measure, but approach to re-opening is varying
Closed, staying closed Closed, but re-opening (Almost) not closed
• US • Israel, Norway, Finland, France • Taiwan
– Officials in 47 states, District of – Re-opening beginning with primary – Schools in Taiwan only closed for 2
Columbia and all 5 US territories school weeks (February)
have ordered or recommended – Schools were open through March
• Singapore, Hong Kong, Czech Republic,
that schools stay closed for the and April even while more stringent
Germany, South Korea
remainder of the academic school measures were put in place
year – Re-opening beginning with final
year students with focus on exam • Japan
– Universities are likewise closed administration – School closure decisions were left
with many having cancelled
summer term and considering • Operations are being modified in up to the city or prefecture, not
remote learning for fall multiple ways, e.g. mandated at the Federal level
• UK – Spacing desks 6 feet apart
Temperature checks before
– No plans for re-opening schools entering buildings
have been announced
– Holding classes outside
– Unclear if schools will reopen prior
to summer holidays – Limiting class sizes
– Shifted schedule – half the students
in school at a time supplemented
with remote learning
– Strict restrictions against sharing
utensils, touching other students,
etc.
© Oliver Wyman 6APPENDIX – SCHOOL CLOSURES WERE A DRASTIC MEASURE WITH WIDE IMPACT
Evidence is mixed on whether the measure makes sense
Are kids at risk of severe illness? Do kids transmit COVID-19 to Do simulation models suggest
adults? school closures impact R0?
• Initial epidemiological evidence from • Multiple tracing studies suggested • Imperial College COVID-19 response
China suggested lower infection rates that children were rarely the index team’s simulation suggested that
and lower severity of illness in children case in a familial cluster and that while school closures reduce R0, it
(~1%) transmission from child to adult was was the least effective
infrequent
• This evidence has been reproduced in
Europe and the US, but criticized for • A recently published study from • of the measures they modelled
potential challenges due to 1) lack of Wuhan • Simulations from a recent study in
testing in children and 2) studies being China suggest that while school
• and Shanghai found that while
conducted post school closures closures are not sufficient on their
children were 1/3 as likely to get
• Studies on broadly tested populations infected, they had 3 times as many own to control the epidemic on their
(S. Korea) also reveal very low rates of contacts (when school was open) own, they can reduce peak incidence
infection in children evening out the risk of transmission by 40–60%
• Mortality for children has been low, • Another recent study from Germany • A recent review of the literature also
only a handful of cases worldwide demonstrated that children that test sites
positive, harbor as much virus as
• Cases of pediatric multisystem
inflammatory syndrome (a severe adults suggesting infectiousness • an early simulation of a SARS-like
complication that in some cases • Multiple larger studies aimed at illness which concludes that school
resembles Kawasaki disease) understanding transmission patterns closures would reduce the effective R0
potentially linked to COVID-19 illness in children are underway (e.g. NIH by 12–41%
are beginning to emerge in the US and HEROS, St. Michael’s Hospital,
Europe, but numbers are still very low Toronto)
Summary: Yes, but at a lower Summary: Evidence is very Summary: Most models suggest
frequency than adults mixed some impact, but extent varies
Sources: Adapted from Science (link) and (link), New York Times (link) and (link), Don’t Forget the Bubbles (link) and Lancet (link)
© Oliver Wyman 7READ OUR LATEST INSIGHTS ABOUT COVID-19 AND ITS GLOBAL IMPACT ONLINE Oliver Wyman and our parent company Marsh & McLennan (MMC) have been monitoring the latest events and are putting forth our perspectives to support you clients and the industries you serve around the world. The Coronavirus Hub will be updated daily as the situation evolves. Visit our dedicated COVID-19 website © Oliver Wyman 8
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