Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction

Page created by Gail Anderson
 
CONTINUE READING
Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction
Review of the T-4 2024/25
GB capacity market auction
May 2021

The T-4 Capacity Auction for delivery in 2024/25 (“T-4 2020 auction”) concluded on 10th March 2021.
In this bulletin, we provide our reflections on the auction results.

Headlines
• The auction cleared at a price of £18.00 per kW per                • In addition, about 2.8GW of existing CCGT capacity2                            may reflect the impact of reduced revenues from
    year, above the clearing price of £15.97 per kW in the               that had participated in previous CM auctions failed                         network charging following the implementation of
    T-4 auction for delivery year 2023/24 held in 2020                   to either prequalify or clear in this auction, and                           Ofgem’s Targeted Charging Review.
    (“T-4 2019”).                                                        1.5GW of EDF’s existing nuclear capacity failed to                       • Awarded new build battery storage capacity more
• 40.8GW of aggregate de-rated capacity was                              clear despite being scheduled to retire a few years                          than doubled to 252MW facilitated by favourable
    procured in this auction, a little bit above the 40.1GW              after the 2024/25 delivery year for this auction.                            commercial factors and recent policy decisions.
    target (that was itself quite a bit lower compared to            • Offsetting these reductions, the 728MW VikingLink                          • Awarded renewable capacity (onshore wind and
    auctions held in previous years).                                    interconnector was awarded a 1-year contract for                             solar) quadrupled since last year, despite these
• Similar to the T-4 2019 auction, the non-new-build                     the first time. In addition, as a result of changes to                       technologies being eligible for more lucrative
    capacity clearing in the auction was 1GW short of the                de-rating, there was a material increase in awarded                          Contracts for Difference (CfD). However, this
    target capacity, making way for new build to clear                   capacity for all other interconnectors relative to the                       capacity only amounted to 40MW.
    the auction at a higher clearing price.                              T-4 2019 auction.
                                                                                                                                                  • There was no meaningful change in Demand Side
• One reason for the shortfall of existing capacity was,             • Three new gas fired OCGTs being developed by                                   Response (DSR) capacity clearing in this auction,
    as expected, 1.3GW of coal capacity that cleared in                  Drax were awarded 15-year contracts for 854MW                                despite this being the first year that DSR meeting
    the previous auction not being allowed to participate                of capacity. New gas reciprocating engine capacity                           the relevant capital expenditure thresholds could bid
    as new emission limits on existing plant participating               was quite a bit lower than in previous auctions, at                          for 15-year contracts.
    in the GB Capacity Market (CM) were applied.                         460MW (de-rated). Higher prices for this capacity

                                                                                                     1   All capacity referred to in this bulletin is on a de-rated basis unless specified otherwise.
                                                                                                     2   Comprised of Intergen’s 747MW Rocksavage CCGT that failed to clear after clearing in the T-4 2019 auction and Calon
                                                                                                         Energy’s 764 MW Severn, 765MW Sutton Bridge and 495 MW Baglan Bay CCGTs that failed to prequalify in this auction.
1      Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction — May 2021
Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction
Existing generating capacity clearing in the
Winners and losers                                                                       auction was significantly below previous
                                                                                         auctions, with 1.3 GW of coal capacity
                                                                                         barred from participation, and 1.5 GW of
                                                                                         existing nuclear capacity and about 2.8 GW
                                                                                         of existing CCGTs failing to clear.
                                                                             35,000
                                                                                                                                                                                    One new
A significant decline in the                                                            30,469                                                       854MW across                   interconnector
                                                                             30,000                                                                  three Drax OCGTs;              to Denmark,
existing generation capacity                                                                                                                         412 MW of gas                  the 728MW
participating and clearing                                                                                                                           reciprocating                  VikingLink
in this auction helped pave                                                  25,000                                                                  engines; 202MW                 cleared in the

                                                      Derated capacity, MW
                                                                                                                                                     of batteries; 79MW             auction alongside
the way for new build                                                                              Existing I/C             Uniper’s                 of EfW; 24 MW of               three other “new”
                                                                                                   capacity was             675MW
capacity clearing the auction                                                20,000                                                                  onshore wind, 5MW              interconnectors
                                                                                                   874MW higher             Connah Quay              of solar and 19MW              (Eleclink and IFA
at a higher price than that                                                                        for the same I/Cs        CCGT U1-2                of CHP new build               2 to France and
                                                                                                   participating in the     that had
observed in the T-4 2019                                                     15,000
                                                                                                   T-4 2019 auction
                                                                                                                                                     capacity received              NSL to Norway)
                                                                                                                            failed to clear          15-year contracts;             that have all
auction (£15.97 per kW) and                                                                        due to a change          in the T-4                                                                            Volume of DSR cleared
                                                                                                                                                     about 135 MW of                cleared in the T-4
                                                                                                   in the de-rating
significantly above the T-3                                                  10,000                                         2019 auction,            new-build opted for            2019 auction.                 in the auction was
                                                                                                   methodology              cleared this                                                                          consistent with the T-4
auction held in early 2020 and                                                                                                                       1-year contracts
                                                                                                                            time around.                                                                          2018 and 2019 auctions
the T-4 auction held in 2018                                                  5,000                           3,355                                                                 3,519
that both cleared at single                                                                                                                                1,736
                                                                                                                                    675                                                                                                 973
                                                                                                                                                                                                                93
digit levels (£6.44 per kW and                                                    -
£8.40 per kW, respectively).                                                           Existing             Existing           Refurbishing              New Build                New Build                   Proven                Unproven
                                                                                      Generating         Interconnector         Generating               Generating             Interconnector                 DSR                    DSR
                                                                                         CMU                  CMU                 CMU                      CMU                       CMU                       CMU                    CMU

We comment below on how some of these technologies fared in the auction:

• Existing coal plant: Last year the government decided that existing capacity not meeting carbon emission limits proposed in the EU’s Clean Energy for All
    Europeans package (effectively any coal plant) would not be allowed to receive capacity payments starting from 1 October 20243. This meant that this was the first
    T-4 auction where existing coal plant that might have still been operational for the 2024/25 delivery year (i.e., 1.3GW of Uniper’s Ratcliffe Units 1, 2 and 4, which
    was the only coal plant that cleared in the T-4 2019 auction) was not eligible to participate and did not pre-qualify. It is worth noting in a post-Brexit world that this
    outcome is likely to have occurred regardless of the European legislation given the UK policy to remove coal from the system by 2025.
• Existing CCGTs: Intergen’s 747MW Rocksavage CCGT joined SSE’s 716MW Keadby and 662MW Medway in not clearing the auction, indicating decisions to retire
    ahead of the 2024/25 delivery year. The latter two plants did not clear in the T-4 2019 auction either. In addition, Calon Energy’s 764MW Severn, 765MW Sutton
    Bridge and 495MW Baglan Bay CCGTs that had participated in previous CM auctions, failed to prequalify for this auction. Severn and Sutton Bridge were put
    into “a dormant state of managed preservation” in August 2020 to allow creditors more time to recover costs after Calon Energy went into administration in June
    2020.4 The two units were subsequently returned to the company directors in late March 2021.5

3   BEIS. Capacity market: Government response to consultations on future improvements, emission limits and coronavirus measures. May 2020. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/
    attachment_data/file/886147/Future_improvements__emission_limits_and_coronavirus_easements_-_government_response_to_consultations.pdf
4   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-53895806
5   Bloomberg. Administrators return two UK Gas Stations to Calon Energy. March 30, 2021. Available at: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/administrators-return-two-u-k-gas-stations-to-calon-energy

2       Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction — May 2021
Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction
Winners and losers
Continued

• Nuclear plant: EDF’s 449MW Dungeness B Unit 22 was unable to                                                               • Interconnectors: A new interconnector, Viking Link connecting to Denmark,
                  pre-qualify for the auction as it did not meet the requirement of having                                     received a contract for 728MW of de-rated capacity. In addition, across all
                  generated within the previous 2-year window. This may explain why the                                        other interconnectors there was an 874MW increase in awarded capacity
                  440MW Dungeness B Unit 21 that did prequalify failed to clear. Somewhat                                      relative to the T-4 2019 auction resulting from a change in de-rating factors.
                  more surprisingly, 1GW of other existing nuclear capacity (comprising of                                     We discuss this in more detail below.
                  half the units at EDF’s Heysham 2 and Torness plants) failed to clear.
                  We discuss this in more detail below.

Awarded Nuclear Capacity                                                                                                     Awarded Interconnector Capacity

                         1200                                                                                                1600
                                                                                    23/24                                                                                                                      T-4 23/24               T-4 24/25
                                                                                    24/25                                    1400
                         1000
                                                                                                                             1200
De-rated capacity (MW)

                         800

                                                                                                         De-Rated Capacity
                                                                                                                             1000

                         600                                                                                                 800

                                                                                                                             600
                         400
                                                                                                                             400
                         200
                                                                                                                             200

                            0                                                                                                  0
                                     Heysham 2            Torness         Dungeness B       Sizewell B                                   BritNED
                                                                                                                                    (Netherlands)

                                                                                                                                                        EWIC
                                                                                                                                                    (Ireland)

                                                                                                                                                                 Eleclink
                                                                                                                                                                (France)

                                                                                                                                                                                Moyle
                                                                                                                                                                            (Northern
                                                                                                                                                                              Ireland)

                                                                                                                                                                                              IFA
                                                                                                                                                                                         (France)

                                                                                                                                                                                                        NSL
                                                                                                                                                                                                    (Norway)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    IFA2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                (France)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              NEMO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (Belgium)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          VikingLink
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (Denmark)
                                       (2030)              (2030)           (2028)            (2035)

                                       Nuclear plants and their estimated de-comissioning dates

3                        Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction — May 2021
Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction
Winners and losers
   Continued
  • OCGTs and reciprocating engines: Of the 1.7GW of new build capacity                                                           • Battery storage: Awarded battery storage capacity more than doubled from
                        clearing in the auction, more than three quarters was comprised of flexible,                                       118MW in the T-4 2019 auction to 252MW, likely facilitated by recent policy
                        gas-fired capacity. This included three OCGTs being developed by Drax                                              decisions and other factors improving the commercial environment for battery
                        that received 15-year agreements for 854MW capacity in total, and 460MW                                            storage. There has been an increase in the amount of battery storage with longer
                        across 44 new gas reciprocating engines.                                                                           durations clearing over the last few auctions, partly due to longer duration
                        Compared to previous auctions that cleared at a higher price, considerably                                         storage having a higher de-rating factor. We discuss this in more detail below.
                        fewer new build reciprocating engines cleared, potentially reflecting the
                        impact of reduced revenues from network charging arrangements following                                   Awarded Battery Storage Capacity
                        the implementation of Ofgem’s Targeted Charging Review. Compared to the                                                           200

                                                                                                                                   De-rated capcity
                        T-4 auction for delivery in 2019/20 (which also cleared at £18 per kW), in this                                                                       T-3 22/23        T-4 23/24   T-4 24/25
                                                                                                                                                          150
                        auction only half as much new build reciprocating engine capacity cleared.

                                                                                                                                                  (MW)
                                                                                                                                                          100

                                                                                                                                                           50
   Recips Awarded Capacity vs Clearing Price
                                                                                                                                                            0
                          2500                                                                         25                                                          Storage        Storage        Storage        Storage
                                                                                                                                                                (Duration 0.5h) (Duration 1h) (Duration 1.5h) (Duration 2h)

                          2000                                                                         20
                                                                                                                                  • Renewables: Awarded renewable capacity quadrupled since last year from 10MW
De-rated capcity (MW)

                                                                                                            Clearing price £/kW
                                                                                                                                          to 40MW. 28MW of onshore wind plant was awarded agreements, of which 24MW
                          1500                                                                         15                                 was new build plant receiving 15-year contracts. Solar plant featured for the first
                                                                                                                                          time in a T-4 auction, winning 12MW of capacity in total, of which the 5MW Bilton
                                                                                                                                          Farm received a 15-year contract as a new build plant.
                          1000                                                                         10

                                                                                                                                  Renewable Awarded Capacity
                           500                                                                         5

                                                                                                                                                         Onshore Wind
                              0                                                                        0
                                    T-4       T-4       T-4        T-4       T-3        T-4     T-4
                                   18/19     19/20     20/21      21/22     22/23      23/24   24/25                                                                                                                        23/24
                                                                                                                                          Solar Photovoltaic                                                                24/25
                                        Existing Generating CMU               New Build Generating CMU

                                        Clearing Price £/kW                                                                                                             0        5        10         15      20        25       30
                                                                                                                                                                                     Awarded de-rated capcity (MW)
   4                       Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction — May 2021
Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction
Winners and losers
Continued
As the table below shows, these renewable generators have opted to enter                                                   • Capacity failing to clear: As in previous auctions, CCGTs comprised the
into agreements that imply a very low level of £/kW payments based on non-                                                                          largest proportion of new build capacity failing to clear. Participating CCGT
de-rated capacity. Compared to a CfD contract, the equivalent annual £/MWh                                                                          capacity was quite a bit lower, reflecting developers giving up on projects
support for these generators is close to zero (and the plant bear merchant                                                                          that have been in the pipeline for some time now and have failed to clear in
energy price risk), which may mean these generators are expecting future CfD                                                                        previous CM auctions where prices have failed to reach the £25/kW-year-
auctions for onshore wind and solar to clear at a low premium in the future.                                                                        plus range that a CCGT is likely to require.

                   Awarded           Equivalent        Agreed £/KW Agreed £/KW     Equivalent                              Losing Capacity by CMU and Technology type
                   De-Rated           Installed         of De-Rated of Installed Annual £/MWh
                   Capacity           Capacity           Capacity    Capacity     of Installed
                    (MW)                (MW)               (MW)        (MW)      Capacity (MW)                                                        7000

    Solar PV          12.5                535                 18                 0.4                  0.4
                                                                                                                                                      6000
    Onshore           27.9                358                 18                  1.4                 0.6
    Wind
                                                                                                                                                      5000

                                                                                                                           De-rated Capacity (MW)
Note: Equivalent Annual £/MWh of Installed Capacity is calculated by
assuming load factors of 11% for Solar PV and 27% for Onshore Wind                                                                                   4000

                                                                                                                                                      3000
• Demand Side Response: There was no meaningful change in DSR capacity
     clearing in this auction despite this being the first year in which DSR was                                                                      2000
     allowed to bid for 15-year contracts. The inability of DSR to obtain longer-
     term capacity contracts was a key point of contention in Tempus Energy’s                                                                         1000

     appeal against the European Commission’s approval of the GB CM that
                                                                                                                                                            0
     resulted in the suspension of the market over the course of November 2018
                                                                                                                                                                        Existing                    New Build                    Other
     to October 2019.6 As part of the reinstatement of the CM, BEIS committed                                                                                        Generating CMU               Generating CMU
     to allow all types of capacity (except interconnectors) meeting the capex
                                                                                                                                                    Interconnector           Reciprocating engines                 Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
     threshold to obtain up to fifteen-year contracts.7 Only one aggregator,
                                                                                                                                                    DSR                      Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT)     Open Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT)
     Zenobe Energy, sought a 15 year contract for a group of coach/bus                                                                              Onshore Wind             Energy from Waste                     Coal
     chargers, but did not clear in the auction.                                                                                                    Hydro                    Nuclear                               Storage - Battery
                                                                                                                                                    Storage - Pumped         Solar Photovoltaic

6    Frontier and LCP reported on the suspension of the GB capacity market that can be found here: https://www.frontier-economics.com/media/2939/gb-capacity-suspension_v05.pdf
7    BEIS. Capacity market: Government response to consultation on future improvements, emission limits and coronavirus easements. May 2020.
     Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/886147/Future_improvements__emission_limits_and_coronavirus_easements_-_government_response_to_consultations.pdf

5        Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction — May 2021
Drivers of the clearing price
                  We previously commented8 on the reduction in National Grid’s target capacity                                                                                                     Looking at the supply in this auction, the prequalifying capacity was also low
                  for T-4 auctions in recent years, due in large part to growth in renewable                                                                                                       compared to the T-4 2019 auction.
                  generation. Relative to the T-4 2019 auction, target capacity declined again
                  this year by 1.4GW to 41.7GW. This was a result of a drop in peak demand                                                                                                         Total Pre-Qualified Capacity
                  forecast of 1.4GW and a reduction due to previously contracted capacity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  50000
                  (1.8GW), offset by increases due to the amount held back for the T-1 auction                                                                                                                                                                                                                       T-4 23/24              T-4 24/25

                                                                                                                                                                                                          De-rated capcity (MW)
                  and the known non-deliveries.                                                                                                                                                                                   40000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  30000
                  Drivers impacting the target capacity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  20000
                  45
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  10000

                  44                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0
                            43.1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Existing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Generating
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  CMU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Existing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Interconnector
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    CMU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Refurbishing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Generating
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      CMU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                New Build
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Generating
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    CMU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 New Build
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Interconnector
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     CMU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Proven DSR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     CMU

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Unproven DSR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       CMU
                  43

                  42                                       0.1                                                                0.35                41.7
                                                                                                            0.15
                                           -1.4                                                   0.4
                  41                                                                  0.8
Requirement, GW

                                                                                                                                                                                   40.1
                  40                                                                                                                                                                               The net effect was that non-new build capacity clearing in the auction was once again
                                                                        -1.8                                                                                      -1.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                   not sufficient to meet the auction’s target capacity, as was the case in 2016 and 2019.
                  39
                                                                                                                                                                                                   This resulted in a higher price – in contrast to years in which existing capacity was
                  38                                                                                                                                                                               sufficient (2017 and 2018), when the clearing price was significantly lower.

                  37
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Comparison of capacity requirement and capacity clearing in the previous T-4,
                  36
                                                                                                                                                                                                   the T-3 and recent T-4 auctions
                  35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  54         51.7
                           2023/24 final
                              reqt (T-4)

                                           Peak demand

                                                             Reserve
                                                         requirement

                                                                        Previously
                                                                       contracted

                                                                                     Held back
                                                                                        for T-1

                                                                                                    Other
                                                                                                  changes

                                                                                                            Autogeneration*

                                                                                                                                   Known
                                                                                                                              non-delivery*

                                                                                                                                                     2024/25
                                                                                                                                              provisional reqt
                                                                                                                                                        (T-4)

                                                                                                                                                                 Additional held
                                                                                                                                                                  back for T-1**

                                                                                                                                                                                   2023/24 final
                                                                                                                                                                                     reqt (T-4)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Non new build capacity cleared
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      49.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       New build capacity cleared
                                                                                                                                                                                                   De-rated capcity (GW)          50          3.4                      0.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Target capacity

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  46                                                           44.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0.3                    43.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             49.0                     49.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1.8
                  * January 2021 adjustment                                                                                                                                                                                       42                                                                                                          40.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               44.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       41.9                    1.7
                  ** February 2021 Secretary of State decision                                                                                                                                                                    38                                                                                                          39.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            T-4 2016               T-4 2017                   T-3 2018              T-4 2019                T-4 2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (2020/21)              (2021/22)                  (2022/23)             (2023/24)                (2024/25)
                  8    Frontier and LCP. Review of the T-4 2019 capacity market auction. May 2020. Available at:                                                                                                                           £22.50/kW             £8.40/kW                    £6.44/kW             £15.97/kW                 £18.00/kW
                       https://www.frontier-economics.com/media/3916/cm-2020-briefing_v23-002.pdf

                  6         Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction — May 2021
Deep dive on key technologies

          In this section we look more closely at a how a few key technologies fared in this auction.

Nuclear                                                                                                                                             Interconnectors
As discussed above, only half of the prequalified capacity at EDF’s Heysham 2                                                                       Cleared interconnector capacity was 1.6GW higher than in the T-4 2019. This
and Torness plant cleared in the auction. More specifically, Heysham 2 Unit 8                                                                       was partly due to a new interconnector with Denmark, VikingLink, receiving a
and Torness Unit 2 cleared the auction, but Heysham 2 Unit 7 and Torness Unit 1                                                                     contract for 728MW of de-rated capacity.
failed to clear. Since there are often categories of fixed cost shared across pairs
of units, this may have been an unexpected outcome likely driven by a couple of                                                                     Awarded Interconnector Capacity
factors (which are not mutually exclusive):                                                                                                         1600
• to reduce risk of non-delivery: both Heysham 2 and Torness plant                                                                                                                                                                    T-4 23/24               T-4 24/25

    commenced operation in the late 1980s and are well into their useful lives.                                                                     1400

    The operating lives for both Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors were extended
                                                                                                                                                    1200
    by EDF from 2023 to 2030.9 Accepting a contract for only one unit in each

                                                                                                                                De-Rated Capacity
    pair would provide EDF with a contingency against non-delivery if one                                                                           1000
    or more units needed to close for maintenance over parts of the 2024/25
    delivery year.                                                                                                                                  800
• to allow them to bid in T-1 for 2024/25: EDF may be looking to enter the
    units that failed to clear in this auction into future T-1 auction for the same                                                                 600
    delivery year. This decision could have in part been motivated by the clearing
                                                                                                                                                    400
    price in this year’s T-1 auction (for delivery in 2021/22) clearing at £45/kW,
    the highest price ever observed in a GB CM auction.10
                                                                                                                                                    200
Of course, in withdrawing the capacity, EDF (and other generators) will have
benefited from higher capacity prices than would otherwise have been the case.                                                                         0
At a price of £18/kW on 3.3GW of capacity, EDF’s fleet capacity revenues will

                                                                                                                                                                BritNED
                                                                                                                                                           (Netherlands)

                                                                                                                                                                               EWIC
                                                                                                                                                                           (Ireland)

                                                                                                                                                                                        Eleclink
                                                                                                                                                                                       (France)

                                                                                                                                                                                                       Moyle
                                                                                                                                                                                                   (Northern
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Ireland)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     IFA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                (France)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               NSL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (Norway)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           IFA2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (France)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     NEMO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (Belgium)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 VikingLink
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (Denmark)
amount to £59.1 million. On their full pre-qualified capacity of 4.8GW, the price
would have had to have been below £13/kW for revenues to be lower.

9   EDF Energy. Available at: https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-lifetime-management
10 The high price was driven by an increase in the target capacity from 0.4GW to 2.4GW in January. Despite a decrease in the expected ACS Peak Demand (-1,700MW), large adjustments to the target for known non-delivery (+1,850MW) and
   capacity at risk of not being operational or being unavailable (+3,900MW and +1,700MW) led to an overall increase. With the higher target in place, the auction cleared at £45/kW after the West Burton A coal units exited in the £45/kW to £50/
   kW round. In addition, the auction’s “descending clock” round structure played a potentially significant role in setting the high clearing price. It is possible that the next bid was significantly lower than £45/kW (if bids had been sealed), but the £5/
   kW round structure forced a clearing price of £45/kW once sufficient capacity had exited in the round. If the next bid down was, for example, £15/kW, then the round structure meant an additional £67m in cost to consumers.

7       Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction — May 2021
Deep dive on key technologies
Continued

The remaining 874MW increase in cleared interconnector capacity was due                                                                                        The de-rating factors are determined through forward-looking modelling of
to higher de-rating factors. This comes after National Grid had previously                                                                                     expected interconnector flows taking into consideration new interconnectors
significantly lower de-rating factors from the 2022/23 T-3 auction to the                                                                                      coming online in the future and surplus capacity in the connected market during
2023/24 T-4 auction. For example, BritNed was awarded 69% more de-rated                                                                                        times of stress in GB. The changes in de-rating factors are therefore a result of
capacity for the 2024/25 delivery year relative to 2023/24, its de-rating factor                                                                               changes in the assumptions and scenarios used in this forward-looking modelling.
increasing from 36% to 61%.                                                                                                                                    As more interconnectors are developed, these (sometimes subjective) inputs
                                                                                                                                                               will matter more and more. The changes in de-rating factors compared to the
Installed Interconnector Capacity and De-Rating %                                                                                                              last auction are equivalent to the addition of a material new power station to the
                                                                                                                                                               system. As such, if the de-rating factors continue to be volatile, they will represent
                                                                                                                                                               a significant source of uncertainty for bidders.
                           2500                                                                                                                         100%
                                                                                                                                                               National Grid ESO has recently indicated they will update their methodology for
                                                                                                                                                               calculating interconnector de-rating factors in ECR 2021 to align more closely with
                          2000                                                                                                                          80%    ENTSO-E’s proposals for allowing foreign participation in the CM. In particular,
Installed Capacity (MW)

                                                                                                                                                               the forward-looking modelling will now scale the capacity in each foreign market
                           1500                                                                                                                         60%
                                                                                                                                                               to meet the market’s assumed security standard, rather than running sensitivities
                                                                                                                                                               using a single scaling factor across all markets. LCP and Frontier looked at
                                                                                                                                                               ENTSO-E’s proposals in detail for the Independent Generator’s Group (IGG) last
                           1000                                                                                                                         40%    year, and found that this relatively technical change – if it is employed as the base
                                                                                                                                                               case recommendation – could result in materially lower Interconnector de-rating
                                                                                                                                                               factors. This would clearly be a positive factor for future prices.
                            500                                                                                                                         20%
                                                                                                                                                               The de-rating methodology is meant to be an indication of the degree to
                                                                                                                                                               which the interconnectors can be relied upon to provide security of supply.
                               0                                                                                                                        0%     Interconnectors have recently been affected by the “de-coupling” of GB
                                                                                                                                                               and European power markets following the UK’s exit from the EU, which has
                                          BritNED
                                     (Netherlands)

                                                         EWIC
                                                     (Ireland)

                                                                  Eleclink
                                                                 (France)

                                                                                 Moyle
                                                                             (Northern
                                                                               Ireland)

                                                                                               IFA
                                                                                          (France)

                                                                                                         NSL
                                                                                                     (Norway)

                                                                                                                       IFA2
                                                                                                                   (France)

                                                                                                                                 NEMO
                                                                                                                              (Belgium)

                                                                                                                                           VikingLink
                                                                                                                                           (Denmark)

                                                                                                                                                               immediate implications for the day-ahead market11, but also reduces the prospect
                                                                                                                                                               of continuous intraday market coupling being implemented any time soon.
                                                                                                                                                               This intraday coupling is arguably more important in terms of ensuring the
                               Installed Capacity (MW)                           T-3 22/23                      T-4 23/24                 T-4 24/25
                                                                                                                                                               interconnectors can react quickly to an emerging stress situation. It is not clear if
                                                                                                                                                               or how this should be taken into account in de-rating factors.

11                        Frontier and LCP recently explored this issue and estimated that inefficient Interconnector flows are resulting in lost trade of £45m per annum. Available at: https://www.frontier-economics.com/uk/en/news-and-articles/articles/article-i8192-
                          brexit-and-interconnectors-a-45m-problem/

8                             Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction — May 2021
Deep dive on key technologies
  Continued

  Battery storage                                                                                                    A number of favourable policy and regulatory changes recently implemented
  Cleared battery storage capacity has more than doubled since last year, with                                       for electricity storage could have contributed to this growth in cleared storage
  an increasing amount of longer duration storage clearing, partly due to longer                                     capacity. These include its classification as electricity generation (hence
  duration storage having a higher de-rating factor. In this auction, 69% of the                                     removal of final consumption levies); earlier removal of double charging of
  cleared de-rated capacity was in longer 2-hour duration storage, compared to                                       electricity storage (both as generation and demand); and changes to planning
  17% and 0% in 2023/24 and 2022/23 auctions respectively.                                                           law allowing energy storage projects over 50MW to bypass the Nationally
                                                                                                                     Significant Infrastructure Project (NSIP) process.

  Storage De-Rating Factors                                                                                          It is understandable that there is so much interest around batteries. The
                                                                                                                     value from arbitrage looks to be positive going forwards, with the gas prices
                     60.00%                                                                                          recovering and more renewables being deployed, providing more opportunities
                                                                                                                     for energy storage in the intraday and balancing markets. Moreover, Dynamic
                                                      T-3 22/23             T-4 23/24                   T-4 24/25
                                                                                                                     Containment (DC) continues to provide contracts at £17/MW/h, although
                     50.00%
                                                                                                                     the value of these contracts can be expected to fall as the market becomes
                                                                                                                     saturated.12
                     40.00%
De-Rating Factor %

                     30.00%

                     20.00%

                     10.00%

                      0.00%
                                  Storage              Storage              Storage                    Storage
                               (Duration 0.5h)       (Duration 1h)       (Duration 1.5h)             (Duration 2h)

  12 Further information on the opportunities available for battery storage assets in the GB power
     market can be found in LCP’s report ‘Is battery storage a good investment opportunity?’

  9                   Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction — May 2021
Looking ahead
As we noted above, technical changes around interconnector de-rating may
be an important factor in forthcoming auctions. Beyond this, ACER recently
published their decision on common rules for cross-border participation
of capacity in the capacity mechanisms of other EU Member States, which
serves to implement the requirements of Regulation 2019/943. However, the
EU-UK Free Trade Agreement clearly placed no requirement on either party
to ‘permit capacity situated in the territory of the other party to participate
in any capacity mechanism in its electricity markets’.13 As a result, the UK has
freedom to use its own preferred cross-border model going forward, making
the continuation of direct interconnector participation on UK borders perhaps
the most likely model for the foreseeable future. While this model remains in
place it seems unlikely that neighbouring EU Member States would open their
markets to direct participation from GB generation capacity.

One other aspect of the capacity mechanism that has not yet received
much attention pertains to secondary trading of capacity agreements,
allowing units to transfer their secured CM agreements to other parties. To
date this has occurred in a small number of instances usually when the unit
holding the agreement has decided to retire earlier than planned.14 While few
secondary trades have occurred to date, the need for secondary trading may
grow over the next few years as more capacity reaches the end of its life,
bringing greater risk of capacity closing prematurely and at short notice, to
be replaced through secondary trading.

Ofgem highlighted secondary trading as an area they would like to improve
                                                                                   13 “Each Party shall ensure that any capacity mechanism in electricity markets is clearly defined, transparent,
in their Five-year Review of the Rules and they are working on proposals              proportionate and non-discriminatory. Neither Party is required to permit capacity situated in the territory of the
to reduce rule complexity, remove barriers to entry and ensure appropriate            other Party to participate in any capacity mechanism in its electricity markets.” P. 175, paragraph 3 here:
                                                                                      https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:22020A1231(01)&from=EN
transfer of risk. In addition to regulatory changes, one other interesting
                                                                                   14 Following the closure of RWE’s Aberthaw coal fired power station in March 2020 the station’s existing Capacity
possibility being explored at present (through a BEIS funded project) is              Market agreements for the years 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 were transferred to other market participants and a
                                                                                      small proportion to other units within RWE’s fleet.
the automation of the process of transferring capacity and allowing local
                                                                                   15 Much of this process is done manually including contract negotiation and bidding and there is no transparent way
Distribution System Operators (DSO) flexibility which has not secured a CM            to find opportunities for trade. Piclo Blog. Five things you should know about secondary markets.
                                                                                      Available at: https://blog.piclo.energy/post/641931263886966784/five-things-you-should-know-about-secondary
contract to be offered into the secondary capacity market.15

10   Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction — May 2021
Contact us
If you would like more information please contact your usual LCP adviser or one of our specialists below.

                                     Tom Porter (LCP) - Partner                                                                                   Dan Roberts (Frontier) - Director
                                     tom.porter@lcp.uk.com                                                                                        dan.roberts@frontier-economics.com
                                     +44 (0)20 7432 3063                                                                                          +44 (0)20 7031 7114

                                     Chris Matson (LCP) - Partner                                                                                 Abbas Hussain (Frontier) - Manager
                                     chris.matson@lcp.uk.com                                                                                      abbas.hussain@frontier-economics.com
                                     +44 (0)20 7432 0674                                                                                          +44 20 7031 7162

At LCP, our experts provide clear, concise advice focused on your needs. We use innovative technology
to give you real time insight & control. Our experts work in energy, pensions, investment, insurance and
financial wellbeing.
Lane Clark & Peacock LLP Lane Clark & Peacock LLP Lane Clark & Peacock Ireland Limited                                 Lane Clark & Peacock Netherlands B.V.
London, UK                        Winchester, UK                     Dublin, Ireland                                   (operating under licence)
Tel: +44 (0)20 7439 2266          Tel: +44 (0)1962 870060            Tel: +353 (0)1 614 43 93                          Utrecht, Netherlands
enquiries@lcp.uk.com              enquiries@lcp.uk.com               enquiries@lcpireland.com                          Tel: +31 (0)30 256 76 30
                                                                                                                       info@lcpnl.com

All rights to this document are reserved to Lane Clark & Peacock LLP (“LCP”). This document may be reproduced in whole or in part, provided prominent acknowledgement of the source is given.
We accept no liability to anyone to whom this document has been provided (with or without our consent). Lane Clark & Peacock LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales
with registered number OC301436. LCP is a registered trademark in the UK (Regd. TM No 2315442) and in the EU (Regd. TM No 002935583). All partners are members of Lane Clark & Peacock LLP.
A list of members’ names is available for inspection at 95 Wigmore Street, London W1U 1DQ, the firm’s principal place of business and registered office. The firm is regulated by the Institute and
Faculty of Actuaries in respect of a range of investment business activities. The firm is not authorised under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 but we are able in certain circumstances to
offer a limited range of investment services to clients because we are licensed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. We can provide these investment services if they are an incidental part of the
professional services we have been engaged to provide.

© Lane Clark & Peacock LLP 2021

11        Review of the T-4 2024/25 GB capacity market auction — May 2021
You can also read