SFSA CASTEEL REPORTER - Steel Founders' Society of America
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SFSA CASTEEL REPORTER
Steel Founders' Society of America a publication serving
SFSA steel casting industry members
780 McArdle Drive Unit G, Crystal Lake IL 60014
Tel: 815-455-8240 Fax: 815-455-8241
http://www.sfsa.org
January — 2021
Casteel Commentary
This Casteel Commentary reviews the predictions from last January and makes some guesses about
what will happen in 2021. Enjoy!
Cast in Steel Preliminary Plans Show Promise
This year’s contest begins with 29 teams from 21 different universities that will
design, build, and demonstrate the capabilities of their own version of Thor’s
Hammer. Preliminary Plans submitted by students have been encouraging and
should prove out the exciting nature of this competition. A few teams are still seeking
Industry Partners.
Partnering provides a great opportunity to encourage future steel industry professionals and, to put
your own skills and knowledge to the test! News of the event’s format and exact date will be
forthcoming. Contact Kimberley Schumacher if you would like to sponsor the event or become an
industry partner.
NEW this year! Student teams are encouraged to come up with a test that they believe proves the
worthiness of their hammer. The test should be filmed and a 30 - 90 second video should be submitted
no later than March 1st.
74th Technical & Operating Conference
While the 2020 T&O Virtual Conference was different from the previous 73 years
presented in-person, it was still a fantastic success! Amongst a pandemic and tough
business conditions, members made the same investment they have always done by
putting forward a strong set of technical and operating papers, and by actively
collaborating through discussion.
The T&O continues to be the world’s premier steel casting conference! Thanks to the
T&O Committee and all of the authors for their investment in enabling the success of
the event. We all benefit from the industry members, academic partners, and
government personnel who come together to make our industry better. Planning is already in process
for this year’s conference; tentatively scheduled for December 8-11, 2021, in Chicago. If you would
like to recommend a topic and presenter for the 2021 T&O, please contact Dave.
SFSA Master Founder Recognized at the 2020 Virtual T&O Conference
SFSA’s Artisan Program recognizes members’ highly skilled workers as Master
Artisans. The highest level is a Master Founder; distinguished by a range of foundry
and leadership skills, and who contributes in an extraordinary way to the success of
the organization. Artisan nominees are reviewed by the Guild of Master Founders.
Recognizing these Masters raises the value and status of these individuals, and
creates good publicity for the company in the industry.
SFSA was pleased to recognize Bob Uitz of Stainless Steel & Engineering, Inc. as
Master Founder and the newest member of the SFSA Guild.
If you would like to nominate an individual from your company to be considered for a Masters recognition, please contact Ryan Moore. 2020 T&O Awards Safety During the 2020 T&O Online Conference last month, SFSA recognized six member companies for demonstrating an exemplary safety record. • Midwest Metal Products – 7th Perfect 2020 record, consecutive year of Safety Awards • Fisher Cast Steel Products, Inc. – Perfect 2020 record, 3rd consecutive year of Safety Awards • Fimex SA de CV – 5th Safety Award, 3rd consecutive year • Matrix Metals; Acerlan Matrix Metals SA de CV – 2nd Safety Award earned • ME Global, Tempe – 8th Safety Award, 7th consecutive year • MetalTek International; Wisconsin Centrifugal Division – 13 consecutive years! Scholarships Recruiting students to join our industry and grow into leadership positions remains a critical need in the steel casting industry and a strategic initiative of the Society. This past year, scholarship sponsors included DW Clark, Eagle Alloy, Fimex, McConway & Torley, and ME Global – thank you! SFSA awarded four $1,000 Scholarships: • Rosemary Barrass, Columbia Steel, Schumo Scholarship • William Schmidt of Stainless Steel & Engineering, Inc., Peaslee Scholarship • Max Selbach, Stainless Steel & Engineering, Inc., Schumo Scholarship • Hannah Ullberg, Spuncast, Schumo Scholarship This year, all scholarship recipients also received an additional $500 from an anonymous donor. If you currently have or plan to have an intern work at your foundry in 2021, be sure to have them complete a scholarship registration form which the Society will distribute via email and on the SFSA website later this month. SFSA Awards Frederick A. Lorenz Memorial Medal: This Medal is presented to an employee of an SFSA member to commemorate outstanding and unselfish service rendered to the steel castings industry. Frederick A. Lorenz served as the Society’s president from 1934 – 1938. The 2020 Lorenz Medal was presented to Phillip Harper, American Foundry Group. Phillip shared his gift of $1,500 with Missouri School of Mines and Metallurgy. Charles W. Briggs Memorial Medal: This Medal, first known as the Technical and Operating Medal, is presented to an employee of a member for an outstanding contribution toward the advancement of the industry. The medal honors the activities of Charles W. Briggs from 1938 – 1968. The 2020 Briggs Medal was presented to Jeanne Wagner, Midwest Metal Products. Jeanne shared her gift of $1,500 with the University of Wisconsin-Plattteville Thomas E. Barlow Award of Honor: This award recognizes individuals who have made a distinguished contribution to the industry, but are not eligible for the Lorenz or Briggs medals. Only thirty-three individuals have received this award. This award recognizes the activities of T.E. Barlow, SFSA Executive Vice President from 1965 – 1971. The Barlow Award was presented to Paul Rudd, SFSA Casteel Technology Associate. Paul shared his gift of $1,500 with the Steel Founders’ Society Foundation. Future Leaders Webinar Series: Data and How to Use it The last part of the six-part Future Leader webinar series on data analysis will be on Tues, 02/16, at 10;00 AM Central Time. Raymond Monroe will apply data analysis techniques discussed in previous webinars using actual foundry data and will discuss his analysis and the results. If you are interested in providing data that Raymond could analyze to address specific questions or issues you are experiencing in your foundry, please contact Diana David. If you missed Parts one through five, the recordings are available to all members on the Steel Casting Wiki.
Research Highlight Iowa State University (ISU) is developing a digital standard for surface inspection to establish an objective and quantitative method for evaluating surface roughness and surface conditions with improved gage R&R. The method calculates the surface roughness from the 3D scan of the casting. Preliminary development is based on scans of comparator plates such as the SCRATA and GAR C9 plates. The algorithm seems to differentiate between the higher roughness levels of the plates but the difference between calculated values for the “smoother” surface levels are not as distinct. To further optimize the method and to validate if it will output similar roughness values using other laser scanners, scans of SCRATA A plates by different foundries are being analyzed. To ensure that this approach also works for 3D surfaces, a 3D printed plastic cube with sides that are replicas of the SCRATA plates are being scanned and analyzed. The test method will be further validated by inspecting actual castings with complex geometry at several foundries. This quantitative method could be leveraged in evaluating the effect of surface conditions on casting performance. If you are interested in scanning your SCRATA A plates and providing the point cloud data to ISU or if you want to learn more about this project, please contact Diana David. Staying Sharp, Raymond Monroe, PhD Raymond successfully defended his dissertation, titled “Developing Data Driven Tools to Enable Rationally Designed Steel Casting Alloy Production,” on November 19th, 2020. He graduated in December with a PhD in Manufacturing Engineering from Worcester Polytechnic Institute. With great respect and appreciation; Congratulations Raymond, and thank you for inspiring your team, and others, to push ahead in these challenging times. Market News While market activity remains below year ago levels, the SFSA Trend Cards shows a bottom in September followed by a slow recovery. This supports the sentiment from the marketing committee’s meeting in December, that business activity was showing signs of recovery sooner than anticipated. Steel and stainless casting shipments and bookings are all up, with shipments outpacing bookings by a small margin. Steel casting backlog remains stable around 8 weeks from the May 2020 low of 7 weeks while the stainless backlog is trending up close to its normal average of 9 weeks. The November trends report shows business expanding over the next three months and no reduction in labor force is anticipated. All of the indicators we track are showing positive signs for our steel casting markets. Capital goods new orders are on the rise. Steel mill shipments have increased since May. Oil and copper prices continue their upward trend, all of which support that we are trending in the right direction. The SFSA 2021 Market Forecast, updated in December by the Marketing Committee, is now available online.
Casteel Commentary: Reviews and Predictions
My Ideas for 2020 for the North American Steel Foundry Industry were:
Wrong.
The pandemic.
The lockdown.
The impeachment.
The unsettled election.
Complete chaos.
1. The presidential election will not be close. Odds today are for betting $105 on Trump
you get $100, betting on the most likely Democratic nominee, Biden, $100 and he
wills you get $500!
Nope, close election, contested and Biden certified as president elect.
2. Oil and copper prices decline slightly due to slowdown in the industrial economies
worldwide.
Oil and copper prices did fall but
primarily due to the pandemic and
lockdown. Oil prices are still depressed
compared to the end of 2019. Copper
prices are much higher, good news for
the demand for mining equipment.
3. Interest rates remain
stable or decline.
Interest rates declined primarily to
provide monetary support during the
lockdown easing the economic burden.
The effort was to finance the lockdown
and not cause catastrophic financial
hardship and bankruptcy. This
accompanied massive relief funding
and payroll support to avoid the
economic effects of restrictions on
activity and businesses.
4. Equity markets remain stable or drop radically, they will not end higher than end of
2019.
Clear miss, it is hard to understand how
with the drop in production and other
lockdown provisions why the markets
have gone up when they are already at
historically high levels compared to their
sales and profitability.
5. Nationalism will dominate foreign policy with Global forums like the UN, WTO, NATO,
etc. losing clout and bi-lateral arrangements becoming key. With Brexit, the EU will
be increasingly challenged. The most important agreement in North America will be
the USMCA.
Nationalism is a structural inevitability
given the size of government in our
current world. Almost all my
opportunities and circumstances are
framed by national public policy. With
government spending between 30 and
60% of the economy, not including the
non-financial burden and influence of
regulations, my life is more shaped by
public policy than by any other
institution. Government is bigger in my
life than family, church, sports, etc.
Nationalism is the recognition that multi-
national bodies and globalization
compromise my interests in favor of institutions and organizations that are not responsive to my
interests. Policymakers and organizations that will respond to my local and national concerns will be
empowered. This is not a flaw based on ignorance but a feature of global politics and finance.
6. China will become increasingly isolated and suffer economically as economic
cooperation yields to peer conflict concerns.
Increasing concerns exacerbated by the pandemic have caused a global reassessment of China’s rise
and their development as a supplier to the world of many critical supplies like PPE for healthcare
workers. National security concerns not addressed have gone unrecognized and are part of the
ongoing discussion of how to respond to China. Trade negotiations have not resulted in systemic
changes in China’s behavior. Other regions of the world remain interested in profiting from China
without regard to security or their dependence on China’s products. The ongoing EU discussions on
trade with China are a genuine concern for us. China’s trade balance is still the largest surplus in the
world.My Ideas for 2021 for the North American Steel Foundry Industry:
1. Demand for steel castings in North America should be steady for the beginning of the year and
improve through the year. It should be up sharply by years end.
2. Shortages and capacity constraints even in our industry should become apparent toward the
end of the year.
3. Equity and investments should drop as the effect of lockdowns and lost productivity make their
way into the profits and performance of the economy.
4. Oil and copper prices should remain stable or increasing.
5. Steel demand should remain strong for the whole range of steel products.
6. The move away from globalization to a more nationalistic policy will continue reflecting the
underlying economic and political realities of our world.
7. In products and market essential for domestic security, there will be efforts to disengage from
China but these will not have a big effect.STEEL FOUNDERS' SOCIETY OF AMERICA
BUSINESS REPORT
12 Mo 3 Mo
SFSA Trend Cards Avg Avg November October September
(%-12 mos. Ago)
Carbon & Low Alloy
Shipments -17.5 -13.0 -10.0 -21.0 -8.0
Bookings -23.4 -16.8 -15.5 -20.0 -15.0
Backlog (wks) 8.1 7.7 8.0 7.0 8.0
High Alloy
Shipments -12.1 -15.0 -10.0 -20.0 -15.0
Bookings -15.9 -17.7 -10.0 -25.0 -18.0
Backlog (wks) 8.6 8.7 10.0 8.0 8.0
Department of Commerce
Census Data
Iron & Steel Foundries (million $)
Shipments 1,246.4 1,169.7 1,187 1,202 1,120
New Orders 1,280.9 1,254.0 1,307 1,288 1,167
Inventories 2,131.3 2,061.0 2,046 2,058 2,079
Nondefense Capital Goods (billion $)
Shipments 70.0 71.9 71.8 73.4 70.6
New Orders 62.8 71.0 71.4 71.1 70.6
Inventories 193.3 194.4 196.0 193.7 193.5
Nondefense Capital Goods
less Aircraft (billion $)
Shipments 66.5 69.1 69.9 69.6 67.8
New Orders 67.0 70.4 71.0 70.7 69.5
Inventories 128.2 127.3 127.7 126.9 127.1
Inventory/Orders 1.9 1.8 1.80 1.80 1.83
Inventory/Shipments 0.0 1.8 1.83 1.82 1.87
Orders/Shipments 0.0 1.0 1.02 1.02 1.02
American Iron and Steel Institute
Raw Steel Shipments 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.7
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