South Pacific Central Banks Regional Research Seminar - Griffith University

2021 Regional Seminar

           South Pacific Central Banks
           Regional Research Seminar
                    7 July 2021, 9:00am to 11:00am (AEST)

Motivation
The inaugural Regional Seminar, convened jointly with IMF and with Reserve Bank of Australia and
New Zealand as presenters and discussants, is another important step in the developing capacity for
research and policymaking program at the South Pacific central banks. The program is funded by the
region’s central banks.

Convenors
Parmendra Sharma                                     Chris Becker
Program Convenor                                     Advisor
South Pacific Centre for Central Banking             Office of the Executive Director–Asia and the Pacific
Griffith University                                  International Monetary Fund
E: p.sharma@griffith.edu.au                          E: cbecker@imf.org

2021 Regional Seminar

Program

9:00    Opening Remarks: Professor Andrew O’Neil | Dean-Research, Griffith Business School

9:10    Determinants of bank lending in PICs
        Presenter: Kalolaini Ranadi | Economist, Reserve Bank of Fiji

        This paper examines the determinants of bank lending in three Pacific Island Countries —Fiji, Vanuatu, and
        the Solomon Islands. We collect data from 21 financial institutions comprising of 15 banks and 6 credit
        institutions for the period of 2000-2018. Our final dataset consists of 224 firm-year observations. We
        apply ordinary least square, random effect, and system GMM estimation techniques. Results show that
        banks’ asset size, core capital, customer deposits, and profitability are positively related to loan growth.
        On the other hand, interbank deposit and non-performing loans negatively affect banks’ loan growth. We
        further show that the effects of these variables are stronger for banks than credit institutions. Our results
        remain robust even if we apply alternative proxy for bank lending. The results of the study offer some
        policy implications for regulatory authority, practitioners, and policymakers.

        Discussant: Severin Bernhard| Adviser-Economics, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
9:25

9:35    Do inflation expectations matter for small, open economies? Empirical evidence from the Solomon
        Islands
        Presenter: Angeline Rohoia | Research Department, Central Bank of Solomon Islands

9:50    Discussant: Adam Gorajek | Research Department, Reserve Bank of Australia

10:00   How does the RBNZ analyse, assess and deploy its alternative monetary policy tools?
        Presenter: Severin Bernhard| Adviser-Economics, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

        The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has responded to the pandemic crisis by deploying various alternative
        (unconventional) tools for the first time, including forward guidance, a large-scale asset purchase
        programme, or a funding for lending programme. In this presentation, we outline and illustrate the
        Reserve Bank’s assessment of these tools – what tools are available, what criteria we use to evaluate
        them, and how their assessment has changed over time – and the deployment process for these tools.
        We also present recent results from recent analysis on the effectiveness of these tools, such as recent
        work on unconventional monetary policy shocks for New Zealand.

10:15   Discussant: TBA | Reserve Bank of Vanuatu

10:25   Q&A

10:55   Closing Remarks: Chris Becker | International Monetary Fund

2021 Regional Seminar

Speaker bios

               Mr Chris Becker
               Advisor, Office of the Executive Director – Asia and the Pacific
               International Monetary Fund

               Mr Chris Becker is currently working at the International Monetary Fund advising on economics
               and financial markets at the Office of the Executive Director – Asia and the Pacific. Previously
               he worked at the Reserve Bank of Australia as the head of monetary policy implementation,
               portfolio management and market analysis (Domestic Portfolio and Liquidity Analysis). Chris has
               more than 20 years’ experience in central banking, across several roles in the Reserve Bank of
               Australia’s Economic Analysis, Financial Stability, and International departments. Other
               institutions of relevant work experience include the International Monetary Fund, UBS
               Investment Bank, the South East Asian Central Banks Research and Training Centre, and Monash
               University. Shorter secondments and work experience include the Bank for International
               Settlements (Basel and Hong Kong), the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, as
               well as numerous central banks in South-East Asia (Cambodia, Malaysia, Mongolia, Philippines,
               South Korea, Sri Lanka). In the Pacific region, Chris’s experience extends to field work related to
               Fiji, Kiribati, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and other island states in collaboration with the
               World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Center, and several
               regional aid agencies. Chris holds a Bachelor of Economics with Honours and a Master of
               Economics from Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.

               Mr Severin Bernhard
               Economic Advisor, Policy Analysis Team, Economics Department
               Reserve Bank of New Zealand

               Mr Severin Bernhard is an Economic Adviser in the Economics department at the Reserve Bank
               of New Zealand. His work covers research and policy advice on a wide range of topics, but
               primarily on the intersection of macroeconomics and financial markets. Recent analytical work
               focuses on the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy in New Zealand, monetary
               policy shocks and surprises in general, exchange rate modelling, or the expectation formation
               process at central banks. He joined the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from the Swiss National
               Bank in 2018 and holds a PhD from the University of Bern. His previous positions at the Swiss
               National Bank covered analysis on and conduct of FX interventions, research on various
               macroeconomic topics, or contributions to academic conferences and research seminars.

               Mr Adam Gorajek
               Research Economist
               Reserve Bank of Australia

               Mr Adam Gorajek is a Research Economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia. Prior to this, he
               managed sections responsible for economic forecasts and the monitoring of the domestic
               banking sector. In the South Pacific he provided technical assistance for the National Reserve
               Bank of Tonga and the Bank of Papua New Guinea. Adam is on the editorial board of the new
               Pacific Journal of Applied Economics and Finance. He is a PhD candidate at the University of New
               South Wales and holds a bachelor degree in finance and economics from the University of
               Adelaide.

2021 Regional Seminar

Professor Andrew O’Neil
Dean Research, Griffith Business School
Griffith University

Professor Andrew O’Neil is Professor and Dean (Research) in the Business School at Griffith
University. Prior to his current appointment as Dean (Research), he was Head of the School of
Government and International Relations and Director of the Griffith Asia Institute. Working in
teams, Andrew is the recipient of Australian Research Council funding and is currently leading a
major project investigating the dynamics of the Australia-US alliance since the 1950s. He has
also received competitive industry/public sector funding from the Japan Foundation, DFAT, and
the Defence Department. Andrew was appointed to the ARC College of Experts in 2020 and is
Chair of the Australian Business Deans Council research network (BARDsNet). In this latter
capacity, Andrew coordinated the ABDC’s 2019 Journal Quality List review.

 Ms Kalolaini Ranadi
 Economist
 Reserve Bank of Fiji

 Ms Kalolaini Ranadi is an Economist at the Reserve Bank of Fiji, with 8 years of experience as
 a Central Banker. Her areas of research interests include monetary and macroeconomic policy
 issues and economic development in the South Pacific, particularly Fiji. Kalolaini holds a
 Master’s degree from Columbia University.

 Ms Angeline Rohoia
 Senior Research Analyst
 Central Bank of Solomon Islands

 Ms Angeline Rohoia works as a Senior Research Analyst (Ag) for the Research Unit under the
 Monetary Policy & Research Division within the Economics Research and Statistics Department
 of the Central Bank of Solomon Islands. She is currently involved in writing other working papers
 co-authored with CBSI colleagues and Griffith University. Since joining the bank in 2017 she
 also worked for a year as an acting Senior Analyst for the Real Sector Unit. She holds an Honours
 Degree in Applied Economics from Massey University, New Zealand. Her research interests
 include: development economics, financial sector development and economic growth and
 public policy.