Southwest Economic Region - New Brunswick Regional Profiles Highlights and Updates

 
Southwest Economic Region - New Brunswick Regional Profiles Highlights and Updates
New Bru nswick Regiona l Prof iles
   H ighlight s and Updates

Southwest Economic Region
New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates
Southwest Economic Region

Province of New Brunswick
PO 6000, Fredericton NB E3B 5H1
www.gnb.ca
2013.02
ISBN 978-1-4605-0183-2 (PDF)                                                                             9127-3E

  Prepared by the Labour Market Analysis Branch (Department of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour).
         If you have questions or comments related to this product, please send an email to: lmab@gnb.ca
Geography
                                                                                                                                             KINGS
                                                                                                                                                           N
                                                                                                                                                     JOH
                                                                                                                                     Saint    S T.
The “Southwest Economic Region” refers to Kings County, and St. John and                                           C H A R LOT T E   John
Charlotte counties which border on the Bay of Fundy. In total, the Southwest
region encompasses a land area of 8,372 square kilometers (12% of the
province’s geographical area).

                                                                                                       Southwest

Settlement Patterns (Census 2011)                                                                       Economic
                                                                                                         Region

• The Southwest region is home to 172,764 people, 23 per cent of New Brunswick’s population.
• The population of this region is heavily concentrated in larger settlements.
• St. John County (home to 44% of the region’s population) is heavily influenced by the city of Saint John with
  92 per cent (70,065) of county residents found in the city.
  –– The city of Saint John dominates the economy of the region, and is one of New Brunswick’s two Census
      Metropolitan Area1 (CMA’s). The Saint John CMA also includes the towns of Rothesay, Quispamsis, Hampton
      and Grand Bay-Westfield (located in adjacent Kings County).
• Charlotte County (home to 16% of the region’s population) is made up of small towns, villages, and local
  service districts with a single larger centre in St. Stephen approaching 5,000 persons.
• Kings County (home to 40% of the region’s population) is a mixture of small centres which are based on
  primary resources, and two large towns (Rothesay and Quispamsis account for 43 per cent of Kings County’s
  population) which are part of the Saint John CMA.
• The Southwest region’s population increased by 5,421 people (3.2%) between 2006 and 2011.
• The Southwest region has the largest English only population in New Brunswick. In the Southwest region,
  86.2 per cent of the population report having knowledge of the English language only, with 13.5 per cent
  reporting knowledge of both English and French and a very small number of people (close to 0%) reporting
  knowledge of the French language only.

                                   The Southwest region has the highest population density in
                                   New Brunswick, with a population/square kilometer of 20.6.

1 A Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is an area consisting of one or more neighboring municipalities situated around a major urban core. A
  CMA must have a total population of at least 100,000 of which 50,000 or more live in the urban core.

                                                                                                      Southwest Economic Region                                1
Age structure of the population (Census 2011)
    • The age distribution for the relatively urban population of this region is slightly younger compared to
      province wide data. St. John and Kings counties have a younger population than Charlotte County.

        Regional Population by Age: Southwest (Census Years)
                                                                                 Change          % Change
                         1991     1996      2001       2006         2011        2006-2011        2006-2011
        0-24 yrs         61,535   59,210    54,350     50,730       50,070              -660            -1.3%
        25-54 yrs        72,350   75,205    74,340     71,605       70,495            -1,110            -1.6%
        55-64 yrs        13,970   14,180    16,190     20,700       25,050             4,350             21%
        65+ yrs          22,340   22,790    23,080     24,310       27,145             2,835           11.7%
                                                Source: Statistics Canada - 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 Census

    • Over 40 per cent of the Southwest population as a whole is of core-working age (25-54 years).
    • Youth (15-24 years) account for 12.7 per cent of the population, while seniors account for 15.7 per cent of the
      Southwest region’s population.
    • In a province with an aging population, this region also shows a rapid increase in both the older worker and
      senior age cohorts.
      –– The age structure of the region is important because age affects both the size of the labour force and the
         size of the tax base.
    • It can be seen that both children and youth, and, core-working age groups have declined over the past 15
      years, while the older cohorts have increased.

                    Over 40 per cent of the Southwest population is part of the core-working age population; however,
                          older cohorts have been increasing while the population of youth has been declining.

2   New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates
Educational Attainment (Census 20062)
• There are slightly higher proportions of persons in this region with post-secondary qualifications (55%)
  compared to the New Brunswick average (53%). The share of persons with a High School diploma as their
  highest level of schooling is also slightly higher (28% compared to 26%).
• The most striking difference in the Southwest region compared to the province is the lower proportion of
  persons with no certificate, diploma or degree (16% compared to 21%).

     Population 25 to 64 years with post-secondary qualifications by major field of study
                                                              New Brunswick                Southwest
     Total population 25 to 64                               217,450      100%          50,840         100%
       Architecture, engineering, and related technologies    51,385        24%         12,830           25%
       Business, management and public administration         52,115        24%         12,685           25%
       Health, parks, recreation and fitness                  31,305        14%          7,370           15%
       Education                                              18,235          8%         3,870            8%
       Personal, protective and transportation services       18,500          9%         3,590            7%
       Social and behavioural sciences and law                14,140          7%         3,010            6%
       Mathematics, computer and information sciences          9,495          4%         2,345            5%
       Humanities                                              8,525          4%         2,145            4%
       Other fields of study3                                 13,740          6%         2,985            6%
                                                                       Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census

• Post-secondary qualifications by major field of study are consistent with provincial average data. This is
  common amidst a diverse mix of employment opportunities.
  –– Half of all 25 to 64 year olds with post-secondary credentials in the Southwest region have a credential in
     the following field of study categories: Architecture, engineering, and related technologies; or Business,
     management and public administration, which is likely a result of the close proximity to an urban center,
     Saint John.
  –– The Health, parks, recreation and fitness field of study accounts for another 15 per cent of post-secondary
     credentials in the Southwest region. Almost one quarter of all credentials in this field of study for the
     province are found in the Southwest region.

                     The most striking difference in regards to educational attainment in the Southwest region is
                     the lower proportion of the population that has no educational credentials of any type; the
                      attainment of specific post-secondary credentials is quite close to the provincial average.

2 Data is being presented from the 2006 Census because it is the most recent data available. New data for this topic is scheduled to be
  released from the National Household Survey on June 26, 2013.
3 The Other fields of study category includes: Physical and life sciences and technologies; Agricaulture, natural resources and conservation;
  Visual and performing arts and communications technologies; and Other fields of study.

                                                                                                                 Southwest Economic Region      3
Labour Market (Labour Force Survey4)
    • In 2012, the unemployment rate in the Southwest (9.7%) was lower than the rate observed for New Brunswick
      (10.2%). The only regions to have experienced a lower unemployment rate, were the Central and Southeast
      regions.
    • In 2012, the Southwest region had an employment rate of 58.7 per cent, which is higher than the province
      overall (56.6%) and very similar to the employment rate in the Central region (59.6%).
                                                                                      • The participation rate in this region (65.0%) is
                          Labour Market Characteristics (2012)
                     70                                                                 higher than the provincial rate (63.1%), and
                                                 63.1 65.0
                     60                                              56.6 58.7          similar to the participation rate in the Central
                     50                                                                 region (64.6%).
    Percentage (%)

                     40                                                               • The relatively strong labour market observed
                     30                                                                 in the Southwest region is likely a result of the
                     20                                                                 fact that it is positioned in a relatively urban
                              10.2   9.7
                     10
                                                                                        area, with more economic diversification,
                      0
                           Unemployment rate   Participation rate   Employment rate     infrastructure, and demand for goods and
                                                                                        services than in small, rural areas.
                              New Brunswick           Southwest Economic Region

    • Over the last six years (2007-2012), the working age population has increased (+4,200), with a concurrent
      increase in the labour force (+3,700). The number of employed persons has decreased (-400), entirely due to
      a decrease in full-time employment. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed persons has increased (+4,100).
      The Southwest region was one of only two regions to have experienced labour force growth between 2007
      and 2012. The number of people not participating in the labour force has not been too large in the Southwest
      region, increasing by 500 people since 2007 (significantly less than some other regions such as Central and
      Southeast).
    • The data for recent years (2007-2012) indicate a gradual creeping up in the unemployment rates across New
      Brunswick, including the Southwest region, where it increased by 4.2 percentage points. In the Southwest, the
      most significant annual increase in the unemployment rate occurred from 2011-2012.
      –– Between 2007 and 2012, the employment rate in the Southwest region decreased by 2.1 percentage
         points, in line with New Brunswick’s decrease of 2.1 percentage points over the same period.
      –– The participation rate in the Southwest region increased by 0.7 of a percentage point between 2007 and
         2012 while New Brunswick’s rate decreased by 0.4 of a percentage point. Over the six year period, the
         Southwest saw its participation rate increase consistently with the exception of decreases between 2009-
         2010 and between 2011-2012.

                              Overall, the labour market in the Southwest region, along with the Southeast region, has fared better
                                than other regions in the province over the last six years. Employment in the Southwest (84,900
                                   in 2012) is higher than it has been historically (prior to 2007) despite the recent downturn.

    4 The Labour Force Survey data presented in this document are annual averages for 2012.

4   New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates
Occupations (Labour Force Survey)
• Employment by occupation in the Southwest is quite similar to the provincial averages. This distribution is
  reflective of the Southwest region’s relatively balanced economy.
• The top occupations for employment in the Southwest region (2012) are:
  –– Sales and service occupations (25.6%);
  –– Business, finance and administrative occupations (18.0%); and
  –– Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations (17.1%).

    Employment by Occupational Classification (2012): Southwest
                                                                                      Number of Persons                 %
    Sales and service occupations                                                                    21,700          25.6
    Business, finance and administrative occupations                                                 15,300          18.0
    Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations                                14,500          17.1
    Management occupations                                                                            6,900            8.1
    Health occupations                                                                                6,700            7.9
    Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion                         6,600            7.8
    Natural and applied sciences and related occupations                                              6,000            7.1
    Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities                                     3,400            4.0
    Occupations unique to primary industry                                                            2,700            3.2
    Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport                                                 1,200            1.4
    Total employed, all occupations                                                                  85,000       100.0%
                                                           Source: Statistics Canada - Labour Force Survey, annual averages

• Employment in Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations increased over the past
  six years (2007-2012) while employment in the other top occupations declined slightly, due to the effects of
  the recent recession and post-recession period:
  –– Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations gained 600 jobs (+4.3 %;)
  –– Sales and service occupations lost 200 jobs (-0.9%); and
  –– Business, finance and administrative occupations lost 100 jobs (-0.6%).

              Over one quarter of employment in the Southwest region is found in Sales and service occupations.

                                                                                                                        Southwest Economic Region   5
Industry (Labour Force Survey)
    • Employment in the Southwest region is approximately 23 per cent in the goods-producing sector (2012),
      compared to approximately 21 per cent for the province overall.
    • Across the province, employment within the goods-producing sector ranges from approximately 16 per cent
      to approximately 28 per cent of total employment.
      –– Over three quarters (76.9%) of employment in the Southwest region is in the services-producing sector;
         when public sector employment is excluded, the remaining services-producing sector still accounts for
         over half (50.9%) of employment in the Southwest (compared to a slightly smaller share (49%) for New
         Brunswick overall.
    • The public sector is significant in the Southwest, accounting for 26 per cent of employment; however, it
      accounts for a smaller share of jobs in the Southwest than the public sector does in the province as a whole
      (29.8%).
      –– The public sector has been highlighted as a category on its own in this analysis to show each region’s
         relative reliance on public sector employment (in health, education and public administration), which
         requires public sector investment. Regions with a high share of employment in the public sector have a
         smaller share of employment in the private sector, as they are inversely related.
    • Since 2007, employment has declined by 8.4 per cent in the goods-producing sector (-1,800 jobs) while
      remaining steady (0.0% growth) in the services-producing sector (excluding public sector).
      –– Over the same period, employment in the public sector has increased by 1,400 jobs (+6.8%).
    • Between 2002 and 2012, in the Southwest, employment in the goods-producing sector has increased by
      2,400 jobs (+14%) and declined by 2,400 jobs (-5.3%) in the services-producing sector (excluding public
      sector).
    • In the public sector, employment has grown over the past 10 years (+3,200 jobs or 16.9%).

                                                              Employment by Industry (2012): Southwest Economic Region
                                              Public sector                                                                                                      26.0%
                      All other services-producing sectors                                                                                                 24.4%
                                                      Trade                                                           14.6%
                       Accommodation and food services                                 6.2%
            Business, building and other support services                            5.8%
                        All other goods-producing sectors                              6.2%
                                            Manufacturing                                        9.0%
                                              Construction                                    7.9%
                                                              0                 5                 10                 15                20                 25                 30

       Note: The All other-goods producing sectors includes the following industrial categories: Agriculture; Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas; and Utilities.
       The All other services-producing sectors includes the following industrial categories: Transportation and warehousing; Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing;
       Professional, scientific and technical; Information, culture and recreation; and other services. The Public sector is comprised of employment from the following industrial
       categories: Healthcare and Social Assistance, Education services, and Public Administration.

            Over half of all employment in the Southwest region is found in the services-producing sector (excluding public sectors),
             while the rest is split between the goods-producing sector and the public sector. Some of the most significant private
             sector industries in the Southwest (with regards to employment levels) are: Trade, Manufacturing and Construction.

6   New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates
Income (Census 20065)
• Average employment income for individuals is slightly higher in this region compared to the provincial
  average.
• This may be attributed to a larger share of the region’s population residing in relatively close proximity to the
  city of Saint John.
• There is a smaller proportion of persons in the region with income less than $40,000 annually and a slightly
  higher proportion in higher income categories (above $40,000) compared to the province as a whole.

     Average 2005 Employment Income (Individuals 15+)
                                                                      New Brunswick          Southwest
     Average employment income (total)                                         $28,353           $30,945
     Average employment income: worked full year and full time                 $41,412           $44,378
     Average employment income: worked part year or part time                  $16,846           $17,076
                                                                    Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census

• Average family income in the Southwest region was $68,231 in 2005, compared to $63,913 for New
  Brunswick.
• The Southwest region has a lower proportion of families with income less than $50,000; however, the biggest
  difference in the distribution of income is the higher proportion of families in the Southwest region with
  income of $100,000 or more compared to New Brunswick.
• Although the Southwest region has higher average family income than the province, it still has a higher share
  of low-income families (8.4%), (according to the low income after-tax cut-offs6) compared to the province as a
  whole (7.3%).
• The breakdown of family income by source is similar between the Southwest region and the province, with
  the Southwest region having a slightly higher share of income from employment (75.4%) and a slightly
  lower share of income from government transfer payments (12.8%). The rest of the income comes from other
  sources.

                              Average income for both individuals and families is slightly higher in the
                                       Southwest region than it is for New Brunswick overall.

5 Data is being presented from the 2006 Census because it is the most recent data available. New data for this topic is scheduled to be
  released from the National Household Survey on August 14, 2013.
6 Refers to the position of an economic family or a person 15 years of age and over in relation to Statistics Canada’s low income after-
  tax cut-offs (LICO-AT). The low income after-tax cut-offs are set at after-tax income levels, differentiated by size of family and area of
  residence, where families spend 20 percentage points more of their after-tax income than the average family on food, shelter and
  clothing.

                                                                                                              Southwest Economic Region        7
Major Employers (Canadian business patterns, June 2012)
    • There are 5,436 employers7 in the Southwest region (2011).
    • The vast majority (95%) of employers in this region have small enterprises (1-49 employees).
    • Only one per cent of employers have large operations that employ 200 or more people.

           Employers by size (2011): Southwest Economic Region
                 4.0%              1.0%

                                                          Small (1-49)

                                                          Medium (50-199)

                           95.0%
                                                          Large (200+)

    • Some of the largest employers in the Southwest region (2011) are:
      –– Horizon Health Network
      –– Anglophone South School District
      –– Bell Aliant
      –– Irving Oil
      –– J.D. Irving, Limited
      –– Wyndham Worldwide Canada
      –– City of Saint John

    7 There are an additional 4,690 employers in the Southeast region classified as “Indeterminate”. The establishments in the “Indeterminate”
      category do not maintain an employee payroll, but may have a workforce which consists of contracted workers, family members or
      business owners. However, the Business Register does not have this information available, and has therefore assigned the establishments
      to an “Indeterminate” category. This category also includes employers who did not have employees in the last 12 months.

8   New Brunswick Regional Profiles: Highlights and Updates
Appendix:
Additional information about the Southwest Economic Region
Migration (Statistics Canada: Demography Division8)
• Since 2006-2007, the Southwest region has experienced positive total net migration after a number of years
  of negative net migration.
• From 1996-19979 until 2007-2008, the Southwest region experienced a net loss among labour market entrants
  (15-24) every year, which creates a challenge for the future of the labour market. Since 2008-2009, total net
  migration has been positive among labour market entrants in the Southwest region.
• In 2010-2011, the Southwest region had a net decrease of almost 100 people leaving to go to other regions in
  the province.
  –– Since 2000-2001, the net intra-provincial flow of persons in the Southwest region has been out of the
     region.
  –– In 2010-2011, the Southwest region had a net loss of approximately 112 people to other provinces.
   –– Net movements inter-provincially have been variable, although for the Southwest region, net inter-
      provincial migration was positive in 2008-2009 and in 2009-2010.
   –– In 2010-2011, the Southwest region had a net increase of approximately 579 people from other countries.
• There has been positive net international migration since 1996-1997 (with the exception of a small net loss in
  2000-2001).
Employment Insurance (EI) Beneficiaries (Service Canada/HRSDC 2011)
• The most common occupations where employment insurance beneficiaries are found reflect the most
  common sorts of occupations in the region.
• Half of the EI beneficiaries in the region were from the following occupational groupings: Occupations unique
  to processing, manufacturing and utilities (24.3%); and Trades, transport and equipment operators and
  related occupations (30.3%).
• The following occupational categories had significantly smaller proportions of EI beneficiaries in the
  Southwest region compared to the province as a whole: Occupations unique to primary industry; Sales and
  service occupations; and Business, finance and administration occupations.

8 Data is based on the period of July 1 of one year to June 30 of the following year.
9 1996-1997 is the year in which this data first became available.

                                                                                        Southwest Economic Region   9
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