SpaceX's expanding launch manifest - China's growing military might Servicing satellites in space - AIAA
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October 2013
SpaceX’s
expanding
launch
manifest
China’s growing military might
Servicing satellites in space
A PUBLICATION OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF AERONAUTICS AND ASTRONAUTICS
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October 2013
DEPARTMENTS
COMMENTARY 3
Russian rocket engines forever?
INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4
Business aviation: Contraction, then recovery.
WASHINGTON WATCH 6
Governing in spite of gridlock.
CONVERSATIONS 8 Page 6
With Loren Thompson.
SPACE UPDATE 12
Space station repair: How it’s done. Page 16
ENGINEERING NOTEBOOK 16
Space science GOLD: A payload trend?
OUT OF THE PAST 42
CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 44
Page 20
FEATURES
CHINA’S GROWING MILITARY MIGHT 20
China’s continuing military modernization is strengthening its ability
to wage war in new and expanding areas including cyberspace.
by James W. Canan
NEO THREATS: HOMELAND SECURITY FOR PLANET EARTH 28
Detecting celestial bodies and deflecting them from orbits that cross
ours will take technology and international cooperation.
by Leonard David
SERVICING SATELLITES IN SPACE 36
Despite complex challenges, the U.S. and several other countries
are pursuing the use of robots for on-orbit satellite servicing. Page 28
by Marc Selinger
BULLETIN
AIAA Meeting Schedule B2
AIAA Courses and Training Program B4
AIAA News B5
COVER
A Falcon 9 rocket leaves the hangar at Cape Canaveral, prior to lofting a Dragon capsule toward the ISS. Read all about
the Falcon's remarkable record by turning to page 12. Photo courtesy SpaceX. Page 36
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Elaine J. Camhi
Editor-in-Chief
Patricia Jefferson
Associate Editor
Greg Wilson
Russian rocket engines forever?
Production Editor
Jerry Grey, Editor-at-Large Toward the end of the last century, U.S. development of large liquid-propellant
Christine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin rocket engines had come to a complete standstill. As pointed out by then-NASA
Administrator Dan Goldin, the only such engine developed by the U.S. in the
Correspondents
previous three decades had been the space shuttle main engine (SSME).
Robert F. Dorr, Washington
Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe
Thus was the stage set for the introduction of Russian rocket technology.
In April 1992, the president of Russian engine developer Energomash visited
Contributing Writers General Dynamics Space Systems Division (GDSSD), builder of the venerable
Richard Aboulafia, James W. Canan, Atlas vehicle that had launched our first astronauts into orbit. He told division
Marco Cáceres, Craig Covault, Leonard president Mike Wynne that for $100,000 Energomash would design and
David, Philip Finnegan, Edward Goldstein,
develop for the Atlas a half-scale derivative of the RD-170, which was a
Tom Jones, Chris Kjelgaard, James Oberg,
David Rockwell, J.R. Wilson
1.7-million-lb-thrust liquid oxygen (Lox)-kerosene first-stage engine for Zenit
and Energia. Since Atlas 2’s three Rocketdyne MA-5A engines, with a combined
Fitzgerald Art & Design thrust of only 490,000 lb, were barely able to get the Atlas-2 off the pad, Wynne
Art Direction and Design understandably jumped at the chance to obtain access at such low cost to
Russia’s proven oxygen-rich closed-cycle technology in an engine that would
Michael Griffin, President
deliver 860,000 lb of thrust at 15-20% higher efficiency than the MA-5A. Thus
Sandra H. Magnus, Publisher
Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution
was born the RD-180, which first flew on an Atlas 3 in 2000. In 1997 GDSSD
successor Lockheed Martin (LM) ordered 101 RD-180s from Energomash for
STEERING COMMITTEE about $1 billion and negotiated an exclusive agreement for U.S. sales.
Col. Neal Barlow, USAF Academy; But LM’s biggest customer for the subsequent Atlas 5 was the USAF, which
Carol Cash, Carol Cash & Associates; was not happy with relying on a Russian-built engine for half its Evolved
Brian D. Dailey; Basil Hassan, Sandia;
Expendable Launch Vehicle fleet. So Energomash teamed with Pratt & Whitney
Robert E. Lindberg, National Institute of
Aerospace; Vigor Yang, Georgia Institute of
to create a U.S. company, RD Amross, to duplicate RD-180 production.
Technology; Susan X. Ying; Boeing However, Amross had great difficulty getting the detailed specifications for
materials and machining processes, because although the Russian documentation
EDITORIAL BOARD was truly meticulous (each part had a ‘passport’ that accompanied it through
Ned Allen, Jean-Michel Contant, every step in manufacture), it was very different from U.S. practice. Moreover,
Eugene Covert, L.S. “Skip” Fletcher,
much of the detailed materials information and ‘tricks’ of the machining
Michael Francis, Cam Martin,
Don Richardson, Douglas Yazell
processes were in the heads of the skilled Russian workmen, to which Amross
did not have access.
ADVERTISING So although Amross remains the U.S. marketing agent for Energomash-
Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 produced RD-180s, it never achieved the desired U.S. manufacturing capability.
rsilverstein@AdSalesExperts.net Nevertheless, the RD-180’s great success (43 flawless launches on Atlas 3 and 5)
Russell Brody 732.832.2977 stimulated Orbital Sciences to file suit last June against United Launch Alliance,
russell.brody@verizon.net
which had inherited parent LM’s exclusivity agreement for RD-180s. Orbital
would like the RD-180 for its new Antares launcher, which currently uses a
Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 derivative of the other mainstream Russian Lox-kerosene engine, the NK-33,
Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA modified and currently being sold by Aerojet-Rocketdyne as the AJ-26.
20191-4344. Changes of address should be But where are the U.S. engines in this now highly restricted field of
sent by e-mail at custserv@aiaa.org, or by fax opportunity? The only current candidates are Rocketdyne’s remodeled SSMEs
at 703.264.7606.
slated for the new Space Launch System and the RS-68s currently used on
Send correspondence to elainec@aiaa.org.
Boeing’s Delta 4. But both these are fueled by liquid hydrogen, which has
October 2013, Vol. 51, No. 9 operational limitations compared with kerosene. The only new Lox-kerosene
prospects on the horizon are the current attempt by Aerojet Rocketdyne and
Dynetics to resurrect the half-century-old Apollo-era F-1, and the far-future
million-lb-thrust AJ-1E6 engine concept being promoted by Aerojet Rocketdyne
for the eventual upgrade of the yet-to-be-born SLS.
Not much of a heritage for a once-dominant U.S. technology. Could it be
because there’s only one U.S. liquid-propellant rocket company left?
Jerry Grey
Editor-at-Large
Business aviation: Contraction,
then recovery
THE EUROPEAN BUSINESS AVIATION Counterintuitive trend covery, external demand is set to re-
market will return to growth in 2014, The increased demand for larger air- main the predominant growth driver,
with demand for new aircraft and craft appears somewhat counterintu- while multiple headwinds continue to
flights led by customers wanting to itive, given the fragile nature of the weigh on domestic demand. As a re-
travel long distances from countries on continent’s economy. Gamba suggests sult, annual GDP in 2013 is projected
the periphery of the continent. Mean- that one reason is the need for long- to decrease marginally in the EU and
while, for the rest of this year, the mar- haul performance to connect Europe’s contract by 0.5% in the euro area. For
ket will contract further. corporations to the stronger perform- 2014, GDP growth is forecast at 1.5%
That appears to be the consensus ing global markets in Latin America, in the EU and 1.25% in the euro area.”
among manufacturers, operators, and South Africa, and the Far East. There The good news is that recovery
other industry stakeholders as they an- are other factors as well. According to looks likely not just in the core area of
alyze the traffic figures and trends for Julian Burrell of business jet charter the continent—business aviation activ-
the year so far. The core business avi- company Vertis Aviation (U.K.), there ity in Europe is centered around Ger-
ation market within the EU is still bat- is also a burgeoning market for long- many, France, the U.K., Italy, and
tling against stagnant or weak eco- haul business jet travel from entrepre- Spain—but also in the southern part of
nomic growth and prolonged austerity neurs in Russia and the Middle East. the continent, where leisure routes are
programs. Outside the Eurozone econ- This trend is supported by industry particularly important during the sum-
omies, however, the demand for busi- data. According to Avinode, “The en- mer months. Portugal’s GDP expanded
ness jet services is growing stronger. try-level, light, superlight, and midsize 1.1% in the second quarter of this year
“Among those countries reporting jet categories have shown minor de- over the same period in 2012.
more than 3,000 business jet move- clines in the first four months of 2013, “Even in the south the trends are
ments per year, Turkey, Ireland, and while the super midsize and heavy jet positive,” says Gamba. “Greece‘s econ-
Sweden have shown the most year- categories have shown some growth. omy looks to be much better in 2013
over-year growth in the first four The one persistent standout is the ul- than in 2012. Italy is coming to terms
months of 2013,” says Swedish-based tralong-range jet category, which has with the recession; Spain remains dif-
market consultancy Avinode. “On the shown a 10% increase in actual flight ficult with the unemployment rate, but
other end of the scale the Czech Re- movements during the period.” even there, in terms of movements,
public, Greece, and Poland have re- And according to an analysis of we are now seeing [that] Spain and
ported the largest declines.” business aviation movements collected Italy are almost back to the European
According to Fabio Gamba, CEO by Brussels-based air traffic manage- norm. That is why we think 2014, un-
of the European Business Aviation As- ment agency Eurocontrol, the first few less there is a major unforeseen event,
sociation (EBAA), “This year is going months of this year saw a 4.3% decline will be a positive year.”
to be another year of contraction.” in intra-European business jet move- Although modest, these are wel-
The degree of decline, he says, will be ments over 2012, while flights from Eu- come trends in the right direction for
the same as last year’s, “between 3% ropean destinations to the rest of the Europe’s economies, where austerity
and 4% fewer business aviation move- world rose 3.8% over last year. measures have had a direct impact on
ments than the year before. But we the market. For example, the Italian
believe that 2014 will be a positive Driving forces government committed to reducing
year. We’re seeing general improve- The key driver for business aviation the number of business aviation hours
ments in gross domestic product fig- demand is the performance of the Eu- flown by state employees by 5,000
ures from EU member states, and ropean economy, which points in a hours a year from pre-austerity levels
countries on the periphery of the con- positive direction for 2014. According to this year, an equivalent of 1% of the
tinent, such as Turkey and Ukraine, to the EC: “After the recession that country’s total annual movements,
are proving to be the real locomotives marked the year 2012, the EU econ- says Gamba.
for growth….Longer haul aircraft ser- omy is forecast to stabilize slowly in This means the lag between GDP
vices—such as those provided by Das- the course of the first half of 2013. A recovery and a rise in business avia-
sault Falcon 2000s and Gulfstream noticeable expansion in GDP is ex- tion movements is likely to be longer
models—are now responsible for one- pected to set in only in the second in Europe than in North America. This
third of all movements, and this is half of the year, but growth should is especially true given the difficult im-
growing a percentage while the lower pick up at moderate speed in 2014. age the industry has in Europe, which
end of the market continues to suffer.” On the back of a global economic re- has caused European companies to be
4 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013
far more conservative in their use of “Much of the apparent resilience tion traffic growth will range between
business jet travel. For the period of shown by local operators in the face 3% and 5% between 2014 and 2018.
January to April this year, European of eroding economic conditions is ac- This compares to an average monthly
business jet departures have declined tually just the result of geographical 4.4% decline in traffic movements
6.4% from 2011, according Avinode. definition,” says an October 2012 busi- measured between August 2012 and
While Europe has faced two consecu- ness aviation market survey by Hon- July of this year.
tive years of decline, the U.S. market eywell. “Russia, with strong local pur-
has enjoyed two years of growth. chasing ambitions, is included in this
region, as are the Central and Eastern Given the depth and longevity of the
Breaking it down European states, which are generally recession in Europe, these seem like
For the moment, however, Europe re- more economically robust. Ancillary modest increases. But as the demand
mains the second-largest business avi- data from the Western European por- for new aircraft in Europe will fall
ation market in the world, behind that tion of the region conjure an environ- heavily within the high-value, long-
of the U.S. At the May European Busi- ment of slowing activity and demand, range sector of the market, these new
ness Aviation Convention and Exhibi- strongly influenced by complex prob- purchases will account for an impor-
tion in Geneva, Hawker Beechcraft lems such as higher unemployment, tant share, by value, of the global mar-
issued a study of this market. It sug- high government debt, and negligible ket. There may well be another round
gested that there are 3,773 business growth.” of consolidation in the European busi-
aircraft (turboprops and jets) in Eu- But from 2014 Europe should be ness jet operator market before the re-
rope, with Germany hosting the big- back to a prolonged period of growth covery finally takes hold, but for the
gest fleet—621 aircraft, a 16% share— in the current economically chal- moment, at least, all signs point to a
followed by the U.K., with 503 aircraft lenged EU segment of the market as sustained recovery beginning in 2014.
(13%), then France, with 344 (9%). well as the vibrant periphery. Accord- Philip Butterworth-Hayes
Another forecast produced at the ing to EBAA and Eurocontrol fore- Brighton, U.K.
event, by JetNet iQ, predicted that casts, European CAGR business avia- phayes@mistral.co.uk
over the next 10 years up to 1,741 jets
(19% of the global market) will go to
European customers, increasing the Events Calendar
continent’s business jet fleet to about OCT. 14-17
4,300 aircraft by 2022, a 56% rise from Thirty-first AIAA International Communications Satellite Systems
the current fleet. Conference and 19th Ka and Broadband Communications, Navigation,
According to Bombardier’s latest and Earth Observations Conference. Florence, Italy.
forecasts, Europe will remain the Contact: www.icssc2013.org
world’s second-largest market for busi-
ness jets, with 1,700 aircraft deliveries OCT. 16-17
between 2012 and 2021, and 2,220 de- International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight.
liveries between 2022 and 2031. The Las Cruces, New Mexico.
fleet will increase at a compound an- Contact: 575-646-6414; nmsgc@nmsu.edu
nual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% from OCT. 21-24
1,890 aircraft in 2011 to 5,125 aircraft International Telemetering Conference. Las Vegas, Nevada.
by the end of 2031. Contact: Lena Moran, 575/415-5172; www.telemetry.org
This is one of the anomalies in the
OCT. 24-25
European business jet market—deliver-
Satellite Communications. Fukuoka, Japan.
ies seem to bear only a passing rela-
Contact: Fumihiro Yamashita, yamashita.fumihiro@lab.ntt.co.jp;
tionship to movements. According to
www.leice.org/cs/sat/jpn/purpose_e.html
EBAA’s own figures, the continent’s
business aviation fleet grew from just NOV. 3-7
under 2,500 aircraft in 2008 to 3,078 Twenty-second International Congress of Mechanical Engineering.
aircraft by the end of 2012, at a time Ribeirao Preto, Brazil.
when the industry—as measured by Contact: Joao Luiz F. Azevedo, joaoluiz.azevedo@gmail.com;
movements—was undergoing a severe www.abcm.org.br/cobem2013
contraction. It will be 2017, according
NOV. 5-7
to EBAA’s most recent estimates, be-
2013 Aircraft Survivability Technical Forum. Monterey, California.
fore business aviation movements
Contact: Laura Yuska, 703/247-2596; www.ndia.org/meetings/4940
climb back to their 2008 levels.
AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 5
Governing in spite of gridlock
WITH MEMBERS OF CONGRESS WRAP- be most painful among senior execu- will be implemented without defer-
ping up their five-week recess, few tives, whose ranks include many engi- ence to the budget situation.
lawmakers were in the nation’s capital neers and scientists, and says they The Dept. of Justice under Attor-
as the end of summer approached. would bring “degradation in morale.” ney General Eric Holder on August 13
Many legislators spent their break In responding to the budget crisis, took the unusual step of suing to
on privately funded travels around the leaders in Washington uttered warn- block a planned $11-billion merger of
globe—‘fact finding’ trips, their offices ings. At the height of the summer/au- American Airlines’ parent company,
say, ‘boondoggles’ critics call them. As tumn wildfire season, with more than AMR, and US Airways Group. To-
of late August, some 1,363 trips had 50 blazes burning throughout the gether the two would become the
cost their hosts $3.2 million, according West, Forest Service chief Thomas Tid- world’s largest airline. The carriers had
to LegiStorm, a nonpartisan watchdog well told reporters that some C-130 hoped to merge in August, but the an-
group. Neither during recess nor after Hercules and CH-54 Skycrane fire- titrust suit puts their betrothal on hold,
returning to Washington was Congress fighting aircraft might have to be with the court trial expected to begin
expected to pass a budget for the fis- grounded because the service is run- November 12.
cal year that began October 1. Ob- ning out of money. Former American chairman and
servers say functioning without a Gen. Mark Welsh, Air Force chief CEO Robert Crandall—loathed and
budget has become the ‘new normal,’ of staff, told U.S. airmen they should loved for inventing frequent flyer
making it difficult for federal agencies not spend too much time worrying miles, which evolved into today’s re-
to operate programs or make plans. about budget and planning uncertain- tail rewards programs—says the pro-
Amid what CBS News’ Stephanie ties in Washington. His having spoken posed merger is “pro-competitive” and
Condon described as “gridlock and ac- to troops about it confirms that it is a will produce a viable airline able to
rimony,” lawmakers passed just 23 morale issue, but Welsh also cautioned serve the largest number of people at
laws this year—including one to name that the Air Force, now at its lowest the lowest prices. Crandall calls the
a bridge—while key issues such as af- strength since it became an independ- lawsuit a “mistake.” Others say the
fordable health care and immigration ent service branch in 1947, will get merger is needed to provide competi-
reform remain stalled. The legislature even smaller. tion to behemoths Delta and United.
owes 12 spending bills to keep the Also on the ‘up’ side: The merger
federal government in operation, and Going and going would allow the airlines to cut costs
none has been enacted. “It’s clear that Budget crisis or not, the government by eliminating redundant departments
we’re not going to have appropria- keeps going and going. While DOD and by being able to invest in new
tions bills finished by September 30,” employees are being furloughed as an fuel-efficient planes that are more
House Speaker John Boehner (R- economy move, other agencies— comfortable for consumers.
Ohio) told reporters August 1. among them NASA, the FAA, and the Workers for three American Air-
With or without a government National Transportation Safety Board— lines unions representing 55,000 em-
shutdown in the interim, the feds were are keeping workers on duty full time. ployees favor the merger. American is
expected to be operating under a con- Most everyday activities
tinuing resolution in lieu of a tradi- of government, including
tional budget after October 1. The air traffic control, space
budget-cutting measure known as se- launches, and firefights
questration would thus remain in ef- in Afghanistan, are con-
fect, and federal agencies, especially tinuing as usual. As this
the Dept. of Defense, would remain issue went to press, the
under strong pressure to cut costs. Ac- executive and legisla-
cording to a report by Tony Capaccio tive branches were de-
of Bloomberg News, under an “execu- bating what to do about
tion plan,” DOD would fire 6,272 of its upheaval and violence
career civilian employees if, as ex- in Egypt and chemical
pected, sequestration cuts $52 billion warfare in Syria. What-
from the Pentagon’s FY14 funding. ever foreign policy de- The Justice Dept. is suing to block a planned merger of American
The plan indicates that layoffs would cisions are made, they Airlines’ parent company, AMR, and US Airways Group.
6 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013
in bankruptcy and announced in Feb- uling delays, cost overruns, and tech-
ruary that it was cutting 13,000 jobs. nical glitches—as well as “organiza-
The company showed a net loss of tional weaknesses,” says the Dept. of
$1.7 billion for the first quarter of this Transportation inspector general’s of-
calendar year. Management and work- fice—is making its debut in stages be-
ers agree that only the merger can tween now and 2025. The system is
bring American out of bankruptcy. beginning to bring U.S. air navigation
But DOJ charges that the move up to the standard of that in Europe.
would reduce competition on key By shifting from navigation based on
routes. The GAO found that 1,665 ground radars to one that relies on
routes between cities would lose one satellites, NextGen is expected eventu-
competitor as a result of the merger, ally to provide U.S. airlines with fuel
affecting 53 million passengers. There savings of $2.3 billion per year.
is also the simple fact that consolida- The FAA and its administrator,
tion of routes costs jobs and affects James Comey Michael Huerta, belong to Foxx’s de-
communities’ surrounding airports. partment and added a new face to
Douglas Kidd of the Washington- help get NextGen on the right flight
based National Association of Airline path. Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Ed-
Passengers tells Aerospace America ward L. Bolton Jr. became the FAA’s
the merger would be “especially trou- drones can be used only at certain al- assistant administrator for NextGen on
bling” at Ronald Reagan Washington titudes and in certain locations al- August 24. Bolton is known in Penta-
National Airport—a favorite of mem- lowed by the FAA. gon circles as a strong taskmaster and
bers of Congress—because the newly Outgoing FBI boss Robert Mueller, is expected to improve management.
formed airline would then own 55% of who is remarkably well liked—a dis- Using NextGen, aircraft no longer
all departures from that location. tinction not everyone in the capital en- have to fly indirect routes to stay
DOJ did not oppose the 2008 joys—was unusually candid in warning within range of ground radar stations.
merger of Delta and Northwest, creat- about dangers from terrorism. Mueller Aircraft can continually broadcast ex-
ing today’s Delta. Nor did Justice inter- told reporters, “My biggest worry is an act GPS readings, providing data for
vene when United and Continental attack on a plane.” cockpit displays showing a plane’s rel-
came together in 2010, forming to- Mueller, who took office a week ative position to other planes and
day’s United. Critics say the depart- before the attacks of September 11, those planes’ flight paths. Being used
ment has changed its standards. Only 2001, said both the nation’s aviation in fledgling stages at locations as dis-
a judge’s ruling, around the end of the system and its cyber facilities are vul- parate as Seattle, Memphis, and New-
year, will determine what happens to nerable. He warned of likely attacks ark, NextGen is clearly providing sav-
the biggest airline merger in history. from lone actors like those in the Fort ings and efficiency.
Hood massacre and in the Boston (Continued on page 13)
New appointments Marathon bombings. Mueller’s leader-
On July 26, the Senate voted 93-1 to ship is credited with foiling a 2010
confirm James Comey as director of plot to bomb cargo planes heading for
the FBI and was sworn into office on the U.S. using explosives hidden in-
September 4. Comey was a deputy at- side transistor devices.
torney general in the George W. Bush Another recent change in Wash-
administration. ington made Anthony Foxx, former
The lone dissent—and a brief, sym- mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina,
bolic hold on the nomination—came the secretary of transportation after his
from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) who has 100-0 Senate confirmation vote on
concerns about FBI use of surveillance June 27. In this era of budget austerity,
drones in the U.S. Foxx will be asked to produce new
The law enforcement agency told solutions for the nation’s aging air-
Paul it would seek a warrant before ports, highways, bridges, and overall
using a drone in a situation where a infrastructure. One of his first actions
suspect in a crime has a reasonable was to announce limited introduction
expectation of privacy. Paul said he of the FAA’s NextGen navigation sys-
was unsatisfied but would let the tem at a handful of airports in the U.S. Anthony Foxx
nomination move ahead. Currently, NextGen, long plagued by sched-
AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 7
Loren Thompson
How do you view our current na- here in terms of creating a society that biological or cyber threats. So I think
tional security situation amid se- is utterly dependent on the Internet we need a different kind of organiza-
questration and emerging threats? and on being able to communicate tional construct here to avoid getting
Over the long term I am pes- electronically through networks. We overwhelmed by some future asym-
simistic about our security situation, basically have made ourselves vulner- metric threat. We’re trying to make
because there is such a proliferation of able to adversaries who don’t need everything fit into the framework that
new technologies—digital, biological, bombers and aircraft carriers to take we’ve already built, and our current
or whatever—that it seems to me some- us down. I think most people in the multiservices military department/de-
thing is going to happen that signifi- business know this in the abstract, but fense agency structure will not be able
cantly impairs the progress of civiliza- we are not exhibiting the urgency that to cope with a really ambitious cyber
tion. I have a suspicion that it will we would expect from a society in challenge.
happen sooner rather than later. danger.
Do we draw from the past too much?
Will we be able to handle whatever Do you advocate a radical restruc- Does that prevent us from taking a
may happen? turing of the nation’s national secu- clear look at the future?
In the near term, we have two ba- rity establishment? In general, I think that we as a so-
sic problems. There is a profusion of Our armed services were con- ciety, as a civilization, are exhibiting
new threats that we aren’t postured to ceived for another time. We still need many of the symptoms of decay that
meet, and that weren’t even consid- many of the competencies that they are often associated with republics.
ered 20 years ago, and it is hard to bring to the table, but they are not The big problem with republics is that
know what the national security orga- postured for dealing with things like they tend to decay, as the Roman re-
nizational construct should be to cope
with all that. And we have constructed
a welfare state that runs the danger of
soaking up all the available resources Loren B. Thompson is COO of the nonprofit
that might have been used for other Lexington Institute and CEO of Source
purposes—defense or science or infra- Associates, a for-profit consultancy.
structure or whatever—that are needed Previously, he was deputy director of
to counter the threats. the Security Studies Program at
Georgetown University and taught
Is our national security establish- graduate-level courses in strategy,
ment fully aware of the threats and technology, and media affairs at
structured to meet them? Georgetown. He has also taught at
The national security structure Harvard University’s Kennedy
and the Pentagon in particular are in a School of Government.
perpetual state of reorganization, but I
have the impression that they are not Thompson holds doctoral and
sufficiently committed to change so master’s degrees in government from
that they can deal with all the likely Georgetown and a bachelor of science
challenges that the global threat envi- degree in political science from
ronment will pose. For example, we Northeastern University. He
all know that cyber threats are poten- was born in 1951 and
tially devastating to our society, but currently resides in
when I look at the responses the Pen- McLean, Virginia,
tagon has mounted, I feel as though and Plymouth,
they are not being sufficiently urgent Massachusetts.
or creative about how they are ap-
proaching this threat.
Elaborate on that.
We are way, way out on a limb
8 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013Interview by James W. Canan
public did. Republics seem incapable it does. Its focus is not on investing Insufficient demand would make the
of reforming themselves. In our case, sufficiently in making the right weap- industrial base wither and maybe
we now have a system that seems to ons. We can’t rely on market incen- fade away?
be mired in an accumulation of rules tives and market forces to buy the That’s right. The United States did
and customs that are not very well kind of defense for the future that we not have a defense industry through
suited to maintaining the vitality of our will need to have. most of its history, because the level
civilization. We have a tax structure Just look at what has happened in of demand was too low. We got a de-
that’s ridiculously complicated, a legal my lifetime—jet engines, computers, fense industry when the Cold War
structure that’s acceptable only to the Internet, lasers all originated in came along and there was an unusu-
those with wealth, and a military that’s government research. They would not ally elevated level of demand for
focused on its signature combat sys- have come out of the private sector if weapons through two generations. If
tems and not on what’s really needed the government had not intervened in we revert to the historic pattern prior
for the future. providing the money to develop them. to the Cold War of low levels of de-
There is a lot of unjustified optimism mand between wars, then we will not
Where does the defense industry fit among believers in free markets that if be able to sustain a sufficiently large
into that context? Or the aerospace we just organized ourselves correctly, defense industry.
industry? issues like investment and infrastruc-
The defense industry is a relatively ture would automatically be dealt with. How would you describe the trend?
recent phenomenon in American his- I don’t believe that’s the case. I do The future of demand for defense
tory. Before the Cold War, products will be driven first and
we did not have a large, foremost by the kinds of threats
dedicated, private-sector
“We can’t rely on market incentives and we face and how we react to
defense industry. What we market forces to buy the kind of defense them. I haven’t decided whether
had was a mobilization for the future that we will need to have.” 9-11 was a detour from a down-
model for General Motors ward trend or a turning point in
and the rest of the com- defense demand. But it was
mercial sector, which served us well not believe there is an automatic mar- pretty obvious for the first 10 years af-
only if we went to war every genera- ket mechanism that could ever meet ter the Cold War ended that this sys-
tion or so. our many needs. We are always going tem was reverting back to what it had
Now we need a dedicated, full- to require government intervention to been before the Cold War started.
time defense industry, but we have to make it happen, to have the right kind If that is indeed the case, then we
reorganize how industrial America of economy and the right kind of de- are headed for a world in which Amer-
works today. It is not driven by the fense structure for dealing with the ica’s defense industry is not all that ro-
general good or by patriotism, it is challenges we face. bust. The one thing that can save the
driven by the assessment of share- industry during periods of prolonged
holders as to whether they are getting Well then, do you think we need a peace is that it is so concentrated in
the returns that they seek. It is about government-based defense industrial Washington and so good at getting
making money, just like every other policy? what it wants from Congress.
industry is. You can’t stay in control of The problem with a defense in-
these companies unless you deliver dustrial policy is that it tends to de- Is the DOD cutting back as best it can
shareholder value, and that limits the generate into an entitlement program, under sequestration? Talk about spe-
industry leadership’s influence outside a jobs program for people in the de- cific weapon systems in that context.
the investment community. fense sector who develop constituen- We’ve already been cutting weap-
cies in Congress. My feeling is that the ons for the last half-dozen years. We
Does the defense industry need better best kind of defense industrial policy killed the Air Force’s F-22 fighter, the
leadership in adjusting to change? is just maintaining a reasonable level Navy’s next-generation missile defense
I think the leadership of the de- of demand for the most important cruiser, the Army’s family of net-
fense industry is as good as I’ve ever combat systems. If we have that, in- worked combat vehicles, the Marine
seen it. But again, that leadership is dustry will take care of itself. If we do Corps’ expeditionary fighting vehicle.
defined by its ability to meet the ex- not have it, then we may not be able So whether we should have been cut-
pectations of shareholders. That’s what to sustain a defense industrial base. ting weapons or not, we have already
AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 9“We need to focus on what really contributes to our warfighters, rather than on what
contributes to somebody’s reelection campaign.”
done it, and now we need to look at Do you think we somehow need to You have noted a cyber threat to the
other areas where we can save money. find the political will and a way to international space station—about
I think the most important area come up with the money to modern- hackers trying to take over its guid-
covers all of the overhead functions ize our tactical air force and our ance and control functions.
that don’t contribute value to the war- bombers? Yes, and that is pretty amazing.
fighter and yet soak up huge amounts I think we could cover the cost of We have many, many, many examples
of money, including excessive opera- a robust aircraft and aerospace mod- of situations in which information that
tional testing, unnecessary rules and ernization program without increasing should not have been accessible to
regulations, personnel levels in terms the defense budget by drastically cut- outsiders was easily hacked. Most of
of manning and compensation that are ting overhead. But no one is talking our smartphones, iPads, and Internet
obviously excessive—all of the areas in seriously about cutting those unneces- connections are not sufficiently se-
which we have just allowed the sys- sary costs. Instead, we are stuck with cure. We don’t know what the Chinese
tem to grow and grow and grow to awful ideas like sequestration, where or other foreign adversaries have al-
the point where it is now in danger of we’re cutting the sinews of our war- ready put into our system that could
strangling itself. fighting capability while leaving hun- turn it off in an instant if they needed
dreds of thousands of bureaucrats in to do that during a war. I do not think
Will the spending cuts weaken us in locations where their value is highly it is all that hard to interfere with our
the air, detract from our air power? questionable. electrical grid, with our financial sys-
Any specific concerns? What about We need to focus on what really tem, with our medical records, and
unmanned aircraft in that context? contributes to our warfighters, rather with other networks that are now the
I have always thought that un- than on what contributes to some- foundation of our civilization.
manned aircraft have been oversold as body’s reelection campaign.
a technology. They are uniquely well What would you recommend doing
suited to dealing with nontraditional You said you are very concerned about all these national security
threats like insurgents who don’t have about cyber security. Do we need to problems? Where would you start?
air defenses or air forces. But they spend more on that? Does the DOD need to be revamped?
wouldn’t be much use in dealing with At the moment, our spending on Our headquarters operation at the
countries like China. cyber security in the federal govern- Pentagon has become so large and
More broadly, the obvious prob- ment is trivial compared to what we self serving that it is now largely dis-
lem we have right now with the future spend on weapons, both in gross connected from the warfighting enter-
of air power is our failure to fund a ro- amounts and as a percentage of the prise. Bureaucracies have proliferated
bust modernization program. We have federal budget. and become inward looking. If I were
fallen behind in most of the key cate- Cyber expenditures are the best the president, I would start thinking
gories of air power: sensor aircraft, bargain we can get, because of all the about how to run all DOD operations
tactical aircraft, including fighters, and damage that is prevented just by hav- with half the current staff. I’m sure it
bombers. They all need to be modern- ing a cyber program. In deciding how could be done. A lot of functions are
ized at the same time, and of course we should spend money on cyber, I not really necessary; but beyond that,
we can’t afford to do that. We haven’t think we will have to rely to some de- there is huge duplication, huge redun-
even managed to buy a new trainer gree on the threats that emerge. How- dancy in paralleling the civilian side
aircraft. So that’s our most immediate ever, I am fairly certain that we’re not and the military side of the establish-
problem. We just haven’t run an ade- spending enough right now on cyber ment, and at the command levels in
quate aircraft modernization program. preparedness. the services.
What are the longer term air power How worried are you about that? What else needs to be done?
modernization issues? Even if the Chinese were not en- I think we could make the Penta-
There are specific things I worry gaging in cyber espionage to steal bil- gon a world-class organization with its
about. I worry about enemies fielding lions of dollars in intellectual property current structure if we had the right
directed energy weapons, or maybe from us every year, I would worry people running it. By the same token,
undirected energy weapons like elec- about their ability—or Iran’s ability, or I think we could optimize the struc-
tromagnetic pulse [EMP]. And I worry anybody else’s ability—to simply col- ture and still have a bureaucratic dis-
about what this may mean for the fu- lapse our whole system so that we aster if we have the wrong people
ture of U.S. air power, because those could no longer function as an econ- running it.
weapons essentially provide a cheap omy or a society. Considering how de- I think some of our defense sec-
air defense, which we currently could pendent we are on the Internet, we retaries have not been very capable,
not counter. are just not adequately protected. but more importantly, the quality of
10 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013the people who have been under them would get changed and be much bet- state, let’s have one that works well. If
has been quite uneven. For every top- ter than it is. we’re not going to have a welfare
notch person like [deputy defense sec- state, let’s have a party in power that
retary] Ash[ton] Carter, there are a lot What’s wrong overall? can actually implement a plan to cre-
of political hacks or neophytes who Fundamentally, the problem with ate an alternative. What we cannot af-
really should not be in control of bil- our society today is that it’s a para- ford to do is just sit here for another
lions of dollars of activity. There are lyzed political system. The only way generation wasting money without
some very capable people at the Pen- under the Constitution that we can get getting anything done.
tagon, but there are many who are past that is to put one political party
pretty mediocre—so the system itself is in full control. The fact that we have Sounds like you would overhaul our
pretty mediocre. two contending ideologies in the elec- entire electoral process, our political
torate that are evenly balanced ex- system.
How would you remedy all that? plains why the system is paralyzed. If No, what I’m looking for is to
I would begin by removing all the in the midterm elections we either have the voters make a decision every
restrictions and barriers to high-quality took the House away from the Re- two years—instead of splitting their
people serving in top positions. Right publicans or the Senate away from tickets every two years—to have either
now, asking such people to serve in the Democrats, creating something the Democrats or the Republicans in
the Defense Dept. as senior political approaching a partisan consensus on control in the White House and in
appointees is like an invitation to tor- Capitol Hill, then we might be able to Congress to implement their ideolo-
ture. They face losing a lot of money, make some progress on solving our gies and get things done. Right now
being charged with conflicts of inter- problems. we can’t even pass the budget. Unless
est, being attacked by Congress, and But as long as we have a system we get beyond our political paralysis,
not getting enough support from the that is divided along partisan lines, we will never fix anything—our na-
White House. If we had half a dozen and with deep ideological cleavages, I tional security problems, our high-
Ash Carters with the backing of the don’t see how we can solve our prob- ways, the way we educate our kids,
White House to change this system, it lems. If we’re going to have a welfare everything.
16 - 20 June 2014 t Gaylord National
al Harbor,
National Harborr, Maryland
Maryland (near Washington,
Washingto DC)
Continuing Education Course an
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scitech2O14courses
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1st AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction orkshop
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Saturday
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13-61SpaceX’s expanding launch manifest
IT IS HARD TO FIND ANOTHER SPACE One of Brazil, and the Turkmensat 1 2012, the space docking feat had been
launch services company with as di- for the Ministry of Communications of performed only by governments—the
verse a customer base as Space Explo- Turkmenistan. U.S., Russia, and China.
ration Technologies (SpaceX), because The SpaceX docking debunked
there simply is none. No other com- A new market the myth that has prevailed since the
pany even comes close. Founded only The move to begin launching to GEO launch of Sputnik in 1957, that space
a dozen years ago by Elon Musk, is significant, because it opens up an travel can be undertaken only by na-
SpaceX has managed to win launch entirely new and potentially lucrative tional governments because of the
contracts from agencies, companies, market for SpaceX. It also puts the prohibitive costs and technological
consortiums, laboratories, and univer- company into direct competition with challenges involved.
sities in the U.S., Argentina, Brazil, commercial launch heavy hitters Ari- Teal Group believes it is that
Canada, China, Germany, Malaysia, anespace of Europe with its Ariane mythology that has helped discourage
Mexico, Peru, Taiwan, Thailand, Turk- 5ECA, U.S.-Russian joint venture Inter- more private investment in commercial
menistan, and the Netherlands in a rel- national Launch Services with its Pro- spaceflight and the more robust growth
atively short period. Moreover, it has ton M, and Sea Launch of Russia with and development of the space market.
done so within four completely differ- its Zenit 3SL and 3SLB. We sense this is now changing.
ent markets—civil, commercial, mili- Still, SpaceX does not seem to be SpaceX has hauled supplies—food,
tary, and university/nonprofit. giving up its LEO market. If anything, water, equipment, and experiments—
SpaceX has used two different it is expanding it. Its manifest is to ISS twice since the initial docking,
rocket models thus far—Falcon 1 and packed with more than two dozen and its next resupply mission is sched-
Falcon 9 v.1.0—and at press time was micro, nano, pico, and femto (under 1 uled for January 15, 2014. It has cre-
preparing for the maiden launch of its kg) satellites, but it is also filled with ated a new commercial space resup-
Falcon 9 v.1.1 in September. That mis- over 100 small spacecraft, including ply service that could eventually
sion is for the Canadian Space Agency 16 Orbcomm-NG mobile comsats for evolve to become an industry. For
and several universities in the U.S., in- Orbcomm of Rochelle Park, New Jer- now, the company is merely providing
cluding Cornell, Drexel, Stanford, the sey, and 70 Iridium-NEXT mobile a little competition for the Russians
University of Colorado at Boulder, and comsats for Iridium Communications. and their Soyuz and Progress cap-
Utah State. Most launch companies would be sules, fulfilling its obligations under its
The company is also completing ecstatic with just the Iridium and Orb- commercial resupply services (CRS)
development of Falcon Heavy, which comm business, or either. These pro- contract to NASA.
may become the nation’s most power- grams not only contain an awful lot of Soon SpaceX will be joined by Or-
ful rocket since Apollo’s Saturn V satellites but are also the kind that just bital Sciences and its Cygnus capsule,
when it is ready for its first launch, keep on giving, because of the need which it has been developing under a
sometime in 2015. for replacement spacecraft every few commercial orbital transportation ser-
So far the company has launched years. But keep in mind that this is in vices contract to NASA. Orbital is
satellites only to LEO. However, it was addition to an already healthy number preparing to start launching Cygnus
planning to send its first commercial of GEO comsat launch orders. aboard Antares rockets in December
communications spacecraft, the SES-8 under an eight-mission CRS contract.
for SES World Skies, to geostationary Ending the myth SpaceX has 10 more Dragon ISS
orbit in September, and its second to Perhaps the most intriguing thing resupply missions remaining on its
GEO, the Thaicom 6 for Shin Satellite, about SpaceX’s satellite launch activi- CRS contract with NASA. It is proceed-
aboard a Falcon 9 v.1.1 this month. ties is that they are not even its ‘core’ ing with development of a human-
At least seven more GEO comsats business. The company has made a rated capsule known as DragonRider,
are scheduled to go up on v.1.1s dur- name for itself not primarily for capable of transporting a crew of up
ing the next two years, including ABS launching satellites, but rather for be- to seven astronauts. Plans call for
2A and 3A for Asia Broadcast Satellite ing the first private company to launch launching the first crewed Dragon-
of China, Asiasat 6 and 8 for Asia resupply capsules to the ISS. Before Rider by 2015, although we suspect it
Satellite Telecommunications of China, SpaceX’s unmanned Dragon capsule will be closer to 2017. This work is be-
Satmex 7 and 9 for Satelites Mexicanos maneuvered in LEO and successfully ing done under NASA’s Commercial
of Mexico, the Star One C5 for Star linked up with the ISS on May 25, Crew Development 2 program.
12 AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013SpaceX envisions eventually mat- failure on August 2, 2008, there was either try another launch or announce
ing an unmanned Dragon with its Fal- strong speculation that the company that he was closing shop.
con Heavy and sending missions to would have to call it quits. Musk had What was not expected was that
orbit the Moon. It then hopes ulti- deep pockets, but he could not end- SpaceX would attempt another launch
mately to launch a manned Dragon- lessly keep financing what appeared within less than two months. On Sep-
Rider to land on the lunar surface by to be a losing venture. It was thought tember 28, 2008, the company com-
2020. The company would like to that in six months to a year he would pleted its first successful Falcon 1 mis-
send a series of relatively low-cost Red sion, carrying the 165-kg Ratsat demon-
Dragon landers (based on the Dragon stration satellite.
capsule) to Mars, launching them on In many ways, SpaceX is reminis-
Falcon Heavies. Yes, the ultimate goal cent of the U.S. government during
is to send humans to Mars—not astro- the late 1950s and the early 1960s,
nauts to plant the flag, but settlers to when so many of its rockets kept
establish a colony. blowing up, and it just kept trying un-
til it managed to launch its astronauts
Against all odds to the Moon. The Russians still operate
It sounds like pie in the sky. But this that way. Whenever one of their Pro-
has been heard so often when it ton rockets fails, they launch again
comes to SpaceX, and consistently the within a few months. It is an aggres-
company has overcome tremendous siveness that some in the space indus-
obstacles and proven the mainstream try may feel is irresponsible. However,
space establishment wrong. SpaceX it is an attitude that is probably re-
failed on its first three launch attempts SpaceX became the first private company quired if you plan to be doing things
with its Falcon 1, and it simply per- to launch resupply capsules to the ISS, like sending humans to the Moon and
sisted until it got it right. After the third with its unmanned Dragon capsule. Mars in timeframes of 10 years or less.
Falcon 9 was scheduled to begin launches to GEO in September.
AEROSPACE AMERICA/OCTOBER 2013 13You can also read
