Structure of the Labour Market, the Economic Crisis and the Political Uprising in the Arab World
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Structure of the Labour Market, the Economic Crisis and the Political Uprising in the Arab World Samir Aita aita@mafhoum.com DG Réd en Chef Le Monde Diplomatique Editions Arabes www.mondiploar.com President du Cercle des Economistes Arabes Le Radici delle Transformazione del Mondo Arabo. Un Confronto Sulle Interpretazione. Universita di Firenze, January 21-22, 2013
Uprisings or Revolutions?
• Many Arab Countries Simultaneously?
• Is there and Arab World?
• What is common?
• The Demography and the labor Market
• Globalization and the failure of the independence model
• The Power System above the State
• The role of the Gulf countries: from Dubai to Islamic Jihad
• How Deep? Redefining the Social
Contract
• State, Economy and Politics…
• Equal Citizenship, Islam, minorities, regionalism…
• The Strong will for change… (The Spring: we want to topple the
regime but we don’t want to talk Politics!!!)
How Important for Europe and the World?
Demography… has been the social answer !
Evolution de la population en milliers
800 000
700 000
600 000
500 000
400 000
300 000
200 000
100 000
0
1950
1960
1970
Europe
1980
1990
2000
2010
USA
2020
2030
2040
2050
USA Arab Europe
How Important for Europe?
Egypte
Turquie et Iran
RFA
France
Irak Algérie
Arabie Saoudite
Syrie
The Youth Tsunami
A baby boom around the 90’s youth
bulge now, like Europe in the 1960’s, but
without the « Glorious Thirty »
Syrie: Répartition de la population suivant les tranches d'âge
May 68! 50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60+
Where are the youth?
Rural Urban Migration: in small towns
and in suburbs
Evolution de la part de la population urbaine (%)
100
mapping
90
80
Algerie
Egypte
Socially the 70 Jordanie
Liban
Uprisings
60
Maroc
50
Palestine
40 Syrie
Tunisie
Islamism
30
20
And social
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
integration
Why is it a tsunami?
The participation to economic
activity is increasing… while people
are leaving agriculture!!!
Taux de population en âge de travailler par rapport à la population totale Taux de Population active (+15 ans)
75% 70
Algerie 65
70% Algerie
Egypte Egypte
60
65% Jordanie Jordanie
Liban 55 Liban
60%
Maroc 50 Maroc
55% Palestine Palestine
45
Syrie
Syrie
50% Tunisie
40
Tunisie
45% 35
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
The share of agriculture in the labour force
Rural urban migration without an industrial
revolution
Travail à organizations
Autres activités domicile Algérie internationales Maroc
sociales
Santé et Non classifié
travail social Non classifié
Education
Finance Administration
Agriculture et armée
Transport
Pêche
Mines
Administration Agriculture
et armée
Industrie Commerce
Immobilier
Finance
Transport Construction Electricité et
Tourisme Commerce eau
Construction Industrie
Electricité Mines
et eau
Tunisie
Non classifié
Autres
activités Agriculture
sociales
Administration
et armée Industrie
Construction Electricité et
Transport Commerce
eau
The share of agriculture in the labour force
Rural urban migration without an industrial
revolution
Autres activités Travail à organizations
sociales Egypte domicile internationales
Autres
activités
Travail à Jordanie Agriculture
domicile
Santé et Non classifié sociales organizations
Non classifié Mines
travail social internationales
Santé et travail
social
Education Industrie Electricité et
eau
Administration Agriculture Education Construction
et armée
Immobilier
Finance Administration
Transport et armée Commerce
Pêche
Industrie Mines
Tourisme Commerce
Transport
Electricité et Immobilier Tourisme
Construction Finance
eau
Syrie
Agriculture
Services
Industrie
Finance
Construction
Transport
Commerce
Also a women tsunami !!!
Women participation is increasing
Part des femmes dans la population active
35.0%
Part des femmes parmi les nouveaux arrivants
1985 2008 2020 30.0% Algerie
Algerie 22.3% 44.3% 42.2% Egypte
Egypte 40.9% 22.1% 23.1% 25.0% Jordanie
Jordanie 24.2% 37.9% 45.0% Liban
Liban 87.3% 47.8% 38.4% 20.0% Maroc
Maroc 31.3% 29.4% 34.0% Palestine
Palestine 10.7% 16.2% 19.9% 15.0% Syrie
Syrie 32.1% 37.7% 46.3% Tunisie
Tunisie 26.7% 43.8% 52.8%
10.0%
Total 34.27% 33.32% 35.30% 1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019The Paradox of low participation for women
It is not a cultural/Islamic (!)
It is a moment of history and social
demographyWomen Participation
Women strongly
increasing their Fig. 7 Crude Econom ic Activity ratio am ongst Wom en
participation at all ages in Syria (1970-2010) (source ILO)
65+
Although women child 60-64
labor in household 55-59
activities not well 50-54
reported, but decreasing 45-49
40-44
Age 15-19 not decreasing 35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
Table 6. Percentage of the never married in the work force
By age class and gender (2004, source CBS) 15-19
Age class 15-19 20-25 25-29 30-34 35-39 10y-14
men 98% 84% 46% 19% 7% Total
women 94% 81% 57% 38% 27%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2010
Average age of marriage for women 28!Where are the jobs?
Chronic deficiency in job creations
Labour force: >+300,000/ year
Job created: 65,000/year (8,000 formal)!!!!!!!!!!!!!
De-industrialisation
Taux moyen annuel de creation d'emploi ‐ILO
création Année Industrie Année
Algerie 5.05% 2001‐2006 Algerie 13.60% 2004
Egypte 2.20% 2000‐2005 Egypte 12.95% 2005
Jordanie* 2.70% 2006 Jordanie 14.50% 2005
Liban Liban 13.00% 2001
Maroc 1.20% 2001‐2006 Maroc 12.33% 2006
Palestine 1.70% 2000‐2006 Palestine 12.81% 2006
Syrie 1.90% 2001‐2002 Syrie 13.40% 2004
Tunisie 1.52% 2000‐2005 Tunisie 20.61% 2004
* suivant les récentes statistique jordaniennesWhere are the jobs?
Chronic deficiency in job creations
Labour force: >+300,000/ year
Job created: 65,000/year (8,000 formal)!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Is participation correlated with job creations?What is unemployment?
Young people and Women unemployment
( with low participation)
Le chômage en Syrie suivant les tranches d'âge Unemployment trends in Syria
25.00% ILO‐LFS
55.0%
20.00% 50.0%
45.0%
15.00%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0% M
10.00%
25.0% W
20.0%
5.00% 15.0% T
10.0%
0.00% 5.0%
0.0%
15‐19
20‐24
25‐29
30‐34
35‐39
40‐44
45‐49
50‐54
55‐59
1994 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Not working even 1 hour last week, on labor forceWhat is unemployment? Most of unemployed never worked before! No unemployment compensation GDP growth minimum of 7% to keep unemployment stable
Unemployment rates
ILO Definition
The highest in the world
taux de chômage
Total H F Année
Algerie 20.0% 20.0% 21.0% 2004
Egypte 11.0% 7.0% 23.0% 2003
Jordanie 12.0% 12.0% 17.0% 2004
Liban 9.0% 9.0% 7.0% 1997
Maroc 12.0% 12.0% 13.0% 2003
Palestine 27.0% 28.0% 20.0% 2004
Syrie 12.0% 9.0% 28.0% 2003
Tunisie 15.0% NA NA 2003Unemployment
Very dependent on government policies
Le chômage en Algérie élasticité de l'emploi au PIB par secteur
35%
2.50
30% 2.00
1.50
25%
1.00
20% 0.50
15% 0.00
‐0.50
10%
‐1.00
5% ‐1.50
‐2.00
0%
‐2.50
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Agriculture Industrie ServicesWhat is EMPLOYMENT? What is a salary man?
What is EMPLOYMENT? What is a salary man?
Employment and education Young women better education Young men less educated
What working, or salary man means?
Informal economy vs informal work
Evolution de la part de l'emploi Informel dans le secteur productif
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Part Emploi Informel dans Emploi Total
Hors Emploi Administratif
PIB InformelMost jobs are informal
Informal economy… informal work
The play of the ILO
Economie informelle %
PNB 1990/1992 Part de l'emploi Informel dans l'emploi total
Algérie 34% non agricole, 1994/2000
Total Femmes Hommes
Egypte 35%
Algérie 43% 41% 43%
Jordanie 19% Egypte 55% 46% 57%
Liban 34% Jordanie
Maroc 36% Liban
Maroc 45% 47% 44%
Palestine Palestine
Syrie 19% Syrie 42% 35% 43%
Tunisie 38% Tunisie 50% 39% 53%Migrations
Internal Migrations
External Migrations:
Permanent
Cyclical
Entering Migration:
Regional Refugees: Palestinians,
Iraqis, Sudanese, Somalians
The Arab Mediterranean countries has received
more migrants in the last 40 years than what
they have send to EuropeInternal migrations
Civil wars… occupation
Déplacements internes Forcés des Populations
Nombre % population
Algerie 1,000,000 3.0%
Egypte 0 0.0%
Jordanie 0 0.0%
Liban 90,000 à 390,000 2% à 10%
Maroc 0 0.0%
Palestine 24,500 à 115,000 1% à 3.1%
Syrie 433,000 2,3%
Tunisie 0 0.0%
Total 1,547,500 1.0%Entering Migration
Mostly refugees
Réfugiés dans les pays et ceux qui en sont issus (UNHCR, fin 2007)
dans le pays issus du pays
Algerie 95,735 11,972
Egypte 112,515 8,431
Jordanie 500,658 2,531
Liban (1) 250,919 215,670
Maroc 1,457 4,505
Palestine 23 343,680
Syrie (2) 1,509,677 20,579
Tunisie 156 2,854
Total 2,471,140 610,222
(1) il faut rajouter en plus 200,000 personnes déplacés à l'intérieur
(2) il faut rajouter en plus 300,000 personnes sans nationalitéOutgoing Migration: a solution ?
300,000 people emigrate each year from Arab Mediterranean
countries
Flux migratoire annuels nets Net migration (per year)
200
Tunisie Algerie
Syrie 2000‐2005
150
Palestine
100
50
Egypte
0
Maroc ‐50
‐100
Liban Jordanie ‐150Globalization through Immigration
Globalization through Immigration
Migration: a base component of the labour market
Work Migration has never stopped:
18% of new comers each year migrate!!!!
Several waves:
The Americas
Europe
The Gulf countries
Migration and labour market:
Cyclical migration:
Syrian workers in Lebanon: 7% of Syrian LF,
30% of Lebanese LF
Iraqis: 7% of Syrian and Jordanian population
Permanent migration:
Remittances = %% of GDP = the real social
safety net
Crisis in Europe Social crisisThe outlawed Arab workers
Financial Globalization of the Gulf countries
Sovereign Funds
Fonds Souverains et Fonds de Pension Publics*
en millards US$
Les principaux Fonds Souverains
UAE Abu Dhabi investment Authority, ADIA 875
Norway Government pension Fund Global 357
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, SAMA 300
Singapore Government of Singapore Investment Corporation 330
Temasek Holdings 108
Kuwait Kuwait Investment Authority 250
Future Generation Funds 174
China China Investment Corporation 200
Russia Stabilisation Fund of the Russian Federation 122
Libya Reserve Fund 50
Qatar Qatar Investment Authority, QIA 45
Les principaux Fonds de pension publics What role in the
Japan National Reserve Fund 1,217 global financial
ABP 271
Netherlands
PGGM 122 crisis?!
California Public Employees Retirement Systems 224
Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board 181
USA New York State Common Retirement Fund 146
California State Teachers Retirement System 140
Florida State Board of Administration 122
New York City Employees Retirement Systems 109
Korea National Pension Fund 191
Sweden Florida State Board of Administration 117
* d'après l'OCDE, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank et Petreson InstituteFinancial Globalization of Gulf Countries
The Stock Markets
Financial bubbles,
Especially in Saudi
Arabia, with its cycles
and vulneraibilities to
external shocks….Foreign Direct Investment
From15 MM $ in2000
To between 45 et 50 in 2006 and2007
، توزيع تدفّقات االسثمارات البين ّية العرب ّية السنوية: ب12 المصو ر
ّ ، توزيع تدفّقات االسثمارات البين ّية العرب ّية السنوية: آ12 المصو ر
ّ
2006- 2002 حسب البلدان المستقبلة 2001- 1997 حسب البلدان المستقبلة
Algeria Algeria
Bahrain Bahrain
Egypt Egypt UAE Algeria Egypt
Jordan Jordan
Kuwait Kuwait
Sudan Lebanon Lebanon Tunisia Lebanon
Libya Egypt Libya
Morocco Morocco
Morocco
Oman Syria Oman
Qatar Qatar
Saudi Lebanon Saudi
Sudan Sudan Sudan
Syria Syria
Tunisia Tunisia
U.A.E. U.A.E.
Saudi Arabia :المصدر
:المصدر Yemen Saudi Arabia Yemen
المؤسسة العربية لضمان االستثمار المؤسسة العربية لضمان االستثمارNeo-liberal Financial Globalization
The Stock markets
Une financiarisation
très liée aux secteurs
rentiers….Immigrant Remittances These are the major fluxes
Globalization throughImmigration
Immigrants remittances
• 18% of new
comers
emigrate…
• The Arab
countries are
the first
recipient of
remittances >
50 MMds$/y
• Lebanon10% of
GDP
• Informal
remittances
important
• remittances>>
FDIUprisings or Revolutions?
• The “youth tsunami” (freedom and Dignity) hitting the
“Power System above the State”(crony liberal
globalization) Uprising Transition towards new
social contract
• The coalition between Gulf countries and Europe (and
Turkey) to dominate the countries in transition
replacing civic values by those of “traditional society”
• Is (the present version of) political Islam (in Arab
countries and Turkey) compatible with equal citizenship
and freedoms?
• Does political Islam have a model to bring dignity?
Civic democratic State or State of equal citizenship and freedomsRevolution or Sunni-Shiaa conflict
Equal Citizenship or complex identities
Religious Stratification of identity
Ethno-linguistic stratification of identity
Ethno-linguism and colonial manipulation
Equal citizenship is not equilibrium between
communities
Nowehere the
internal and the
internal dimension
are as initricated as
in Lebanon …The Kurds: A Nation witout a State
Is Turkey a secular or an Islamic country?
Syrian Revolution: the corner stone of equal citizenship
Syrian Revolution: the corner stone of equal citizenship
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