SUMMER 2021: HOW TO STAY AHEAD OF CHANGING CUSTOMER DEMAND AND BEHAVIOR - AUTHORS: CARA PRATT MICHAEL MCGOWAN - PATH TO PURCHASE IQ
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Summer 2021: How to Stay
Ahead of Changing Customer
Demand and Behavior
Authors:
Cara Pratt
Michael McGowan
The upcoming summer season will be unlike
any other in modern times. With vaccination
distribution ramping up and expanding, people will
be hopeful for a return to some sense of normalcy
in the coming months. The desire to participate
in summer holidays and celebrations will be
irresistible for many consumers. What will these
social gatherings look like? How can consumer
packaged goods (CPGs) and other companies
capitalize on the insights we’ve gathered from
months of pandemic shopping behavior to align
themselves for success this summer?
As more and more people get vaccinated, consumers
will begin to embrace summer gatherings and holiday
travel again. The result has the potential to be a summer
of cathartic in-person celebrations. “Normal” activities
like graduation parties, vacations, weddings, summer
camp, and family reunions will have a deeper sense of
meaning and joy than they did in pre-pandemic times.
These will truly be memories that last a lifetime.
However, mass immunization comes with extraordinary
challenges. While we anticipate that widespread
vaccinations may happen in many metropolitan areas
as early as spring, rural areas may take much longer,
possibly the remainder of the year.
In mid-December 2020,
How will this affect shopping behaviors around the
traditionally busy entertaining summer months?
Kroger customers are aware of the uncertainty that
81% with nearly
Summer 2021 will hold, given the potential continued
impact of COVID-19. In a mid-December study
of 38%
consumers anticipating
conducted by the Consumer Research team at 84.51°, expect COVID-19 it will last
81% of consumers said they expect COVID-19 will last will last longer
at least 6 more months. That breaks down as 38% at least than
of consumers anticipating it will take longer than 12
months to return to normal versus 43% that anticipate
6 months, 12 months
a shorter timeframe of 6-12 months. While this 38%
is an improvement from past bi-weekly surveys, it is
clear consumer perception remains uneasy.
© 84.51° 2021 2
While uncertainty reigns supreme, one thing is 1 Early Planning and Shopping
certain — people will want something to celebrate. Earlier planning and shopping have been a trend since
Here, we’ll explore how CPGs and other companies the start of the pandemic. This year, Memorial Day is
can delight shoppers and support shopper celebrations late (May 31), so expect summer shopping behaviors
during summer-related occasions — Memorial Day, to begin well ahead of Memorial Day. To support this
Father’s Day, and the Fourth of July. point, 84.51° Stratum insights show shoppers opted
to prepare for the Thanksgiving holiday early in 2020.
Looking at the number (units) of frozen whole turkeys
sold the week of Thanksgiving each of the past 5 years,
Memorial Day: 2020 presented the lowest count, however, looking at
More Eagerly Anticipated than Ever the number (units) of frozen whole turkeys sold in the
While the official start of Summer 2021 is Monday, combined weeks of one week prior to and two weeks
prior to Thanksgiving week, 2020 had the highest count.
June 21, in the minds of many, Memorial Day is the
true kick-off to summer celebrations. In fact, this
2 Sweet Indulgences
Memorial Day may be more poignant as some people Watch for dessert items to land in the shopping cart,
celebrate the beginning of a summer together, along with the typical summer picnic foods. As early
while others reflect on challenges and losses as late April 2020, the weekly sales index of s’mores
of the past year. ingredients maintained levels above the average item,
indicating shoppers’ readiness to indulge in traditional
summer sweets after a stressful winter.
Ice cream sundaes could be a great way to engage
“We have talked about households in a simple, fun, build-your-own dessert
activity. In fact, when shoppers build their online carts,
Memorial Day, and possibly
cones and ice cream toppings tend to be among the
going to visit my parents for items added directly before and after ice cream.
that weekend. That has been In 2020, during the five weeks leading up to and
including the week of Memorial Day (week ending
a summer kickoff weekend,
5/2/20 through week ending 5/30/20), the average
spent at their lake house.” number of households shopping conventional ice
cream per week increased nearly 17% from the
same time period in 2019.
3 Innovative Produce
Consumers can now find the latest emerging
technology in their local produce aisles. From
no-cry onions to in-store hydroponic farms to
plant-based coatings like Apeel™ that extend the
shelf life of produce, shoppers will see more
innovative food solutions launch in 2021 to help
keep their favorite fruits and vegetables at the
peak of freshness longer.
© 84.51° 2021 3
1 Regional Flavors
Father’s Day:
The Sun Is Heating Up and So is the Grill From the 2019 grilling season to the 2020 grilling season,
the number of households that purchased both meat
For the 2020 summer grilling season, the charcoal
and select regionally flavored rubs in the same trip grew
and lighter fluid category saw its highest household from between 14% to 24%. Seeing households engage
growth rate in at least 5 years — with YOY household in regionally inspired flavors is a trend we expect to
growth just north of 7%. In 2021, it will be important continue. The options for expanded flavor inspiration
for CPG companies to build on this interest and are endless — from adding side dishes like Kansas City
Baked Beans or Classic Memphis-Style Coleslaw to
excitement in grilling. One way to do that is
adding adult beverages like the Kansas City Ice Water
through flavor inspiration.
cocktail or a Memphis Iced Tea.
2 Global Flavors
According to 84.51° research, more than 60% of Kroger
shoppers are spending more time cooking at home.
This trend will accelerate in 2021, as consumers
continue to experiment with global flavors and recreate
their favorite travel experiences or restaurant meals
at home instead of dining out or traveling abroad. So,
while people want to travel and dine out again, we
expect to see more permanence around dining and
“So much grilling with this meal prep at home through 2021 and beyond.
summer weather. Love it!
3 Premium Grilling
Grilled meats, veggies. We see an opportunity for families to treat Dad to
Paired with cold salads premium meats and seafoods, including steak, ribs,
and lobster. In fact, over the past 5 years, lobster had its
and ice-cold beverages.
best performing lead-up week to Father’s Day in 2020
It has been so hot lately, with lobster units sold in that one week up 194% from
so I am not liking anything 2019. Just as grilling throughout the summer presents
opportunities for scrumptious sides and delicious drink
overly rich and heavy.”
pairings, customers may look to do the same on Father’s
Day, treating Dad to a full spread. Inspiring customers
to make favorite side dishes, drinks, and desserts will
encourage increased basket sizes.
4 Personalized Gifting and Quality Time
In 2020, Father’s Day gifting shifted from events/outings
to in-home experiences and crafting. In 2021, we expect
quality time and personalization to be the focus for
gifting, whether that quality time with Dad is spent at
home or doing more typical summer activities outside.
© 84.51° 2021 4
1 Red, White and Blue Inspirations
Fourth of July:
Make a Summer Splash For the Fourth of July, inspire shoppers to get creative
with red, white and blue recipes. Over the past three
S’mores by the campfire, watermelon at the
years, Kroger data shows that units of blue gelatin sold
park or a drink by a pool. July is peak summer in the week of our patriotic holiday are 3.7 times higher
and shoppers will want to spend less time in stores than the average of the other weeks. Marketers should
and more time outdoors. The Fourth of July is an evaluate how products can fit into red, white and blue-
opportunity for shoppers to evaluate their summer inspired food and drink recipes.
pantry and cooler needs.
2 Plant-Based Popularity
With nearly 1 in 3 shoppers buying plant-based foods,
brands should engage customers buying plant-based
meat. Look for new households trying plant-based
offerings that can be grilled. We know the primary
reason shoppers first purchase plant-based food is
for health/dietary reasons. For plant-based meat, the
top-rated reason why shoppers first buy and continue
to purchase is for animal welfare reasons.1
3 Sustainable Choices
COVID-19 has impacted consumers’ lives in more ways
“From a dietary standpoint,
than one, and consumers are more interested than ever
I struggle during the in the environmental impact of their lifestyle choices.
summer months with According to a recent 84.51° survey, 35% of Kroger
shoppers strongly agree that they are more conscious
eating healthy because of food waste since the onset of COVID-19 and more
of the increase in socializing than half plan to continue taking steps to limit food
(more food, more drinks).” waste after the pandemic. In 2021, consumers will
find a growing selection of eco-friendly products that
reduce their carbon footprint, including plant-based
and plant-blended meats, sustainably packaged
products and more.
4 Keep it Cool and Light
Health and beauty care companies can zero in on
the desire for shoppers to feel light during the hot
summer months, emphasizing fresh scents and
lightweight or cooling product properties. General
Merchandise can also get in on the fun of meeting
shopper needs to cool down, ensuring water floats
and toys are available for people looking to turn
down the heat during a hot summer.
1
84.51° ROOTS Plant Based Research Full Report
© 84.51° 2021 5
5 Modality Matters
2020 was a tipping point for shopper adoption of
online Pickup and Delivery. With so many shoppers
now familiar with how to use Pickup and Delivery,
we’ll see more multi-modal shopping around holidays
when people want to save time shopping. On July 4,
2020 the top (#1) product by $ Sales on Pickup was
watermelon with its Pickup $ Sales growing over 300%
versus July 4, 2019. On our patriotic holiday in 2019
the top product by $ Sales on Pickup was strawberries.
Understanding which products performed the best
across In-store, Pickup, and Delivery over the past
two Fourth of July holidays and using those insights
to inform strategy for 2021 will be critical for
Summer 2021 success.
CONCLUSION:
A Summer Blockbuster
of Opportunity
Dive into insights now to make a splash in the insights — determine which product combinations are
summer: 84.51° insights can inform a multitude favored over others and explore which items are most
of aspects for summer planning. Whether your goals likely bought in the same trip as a target product.
are to ensure the right items will have enough supply,
recommend and work for display support for top Show up big in the digital aisle: Consumer adoption
performing products, promote items that matter of grocery Delivery and Pickup accelerated greatly in
to customers during the summer months, pursue 2020. Look for this trend to continue in 2021 alongside
innovation to support summer trend predictions, earlier shopping for big occasions. Brands should aim
invest in your best shoppers — or do all of it, 84.51° to understand product performance and household
insights can inform your decisions to drive results. engagement on Pickup and Delivery so strategic
decisions can be made to inform where to prioritize
Use data science to break through ad clutter: having the strongest presence in the digital aisle
Leverage 84.51° data science to reach the right to influence in-market shopping decisions.
households at every step in their path to purchase.
With today’s consumer seeing over 4,000 Seek advertising opportunities for online
advertisements a day, attention will flock shoppers: Clickstream insights show that on average,
to messages with the most relevancy. during holiday weeks, single session online orders
(e.g. not completing an online order over multiple
Don’t just advertise, build data-driven shopping sessions) increase among all households, indicating
solutions: Condense the path to purchase through that households think about their basket more
shoppable touchpoints connected to ecommerce; holistically. Understanding shoppers’ Clickstream
for example, inspire consumers as they plan their behavior could be a great opportunity for suppliers
summer celebrations through recipes, videos, to find partnerships, execute cross-promotions
influencers or social content. Inform which recipes or create targeted onsite ads for complementary
are selected to be brought to life by leveraging 84.51° categories specific to the holidays.
© 84.51° 2021 6
OUR PRODUCTS:
How 84.51° Can Make
Your Summer Successful
Kroger Precision Marketing (KPM), powered
by 84.51°, is the retail media business of Kroger
designed to make brand advertising more effective
by closing the loop between media exposure and
store sales. With KPM, brands can apply 84.51°
targeting science and sales measurement through
on-site advertising, direct advertising, programmatic
advertising, and through media partners like Roku,
Meredith, Pinterest, Facebook and Pandora.
84.51° Stratum is a breakthrough analytics solution
that combines rich customer behavior insights from
nearly 60 million households with retail performance
measures. 84.51° Stratum revolutionizes how our
partners utilize insights to make informed decisions 84.51° Best Customer Communication (BCC)
that drive marketing, strategy, and more — to win with is a platform for ongoing dialogue with CPG’s best
shoppers both in-store and online, as it is powered by customers. By leveraging customer insights and actual
data captured from brick and mortar, as well as online purchase behavior, BCC delivers relevant and targeted
transactions. 84.51° Stratum is used by over 1,400 offers and content to customers through loyal customer
CPGs, suppliers, brokers, agencies, and food and mailers and MyMagazine.
trade associations.
Clickstream is the sequence of shopping behavior If you are interested in learning more, reach
online with data captured across web and mobile out to your insights account manager or email
applications as households shop Pickup and Delivery shopperinsights@8451.com
e-commerce modalities. With the industry-leading
If you are interested in activating media on behavioral
grocery clickstream data asset, we have over 6 million
insights, reach out to our Kroger Precision Marketing
households to learn from. Clickstream behavioral
team at kpminfo@8451.com
insights can help drive understanding of online
customers — how carts are being built, the path to
purchase, key search terms, and more — to drive
SOURCES
strategy and grow product performance online.
1. 84.51° Stratum
Consumer Research (CR) complements and amplifies 2. 84.51° Coronavirus (COVID-19) Deep Dive: Consumer Perception
on Returning to Normal and Its Impact on the Upcoming Holidays
84.51°’s industry-leading data science and analytics
with cutting-edge research approaches that bring 3. 184.51° ROOTS Plant Based Research Full Report
- If you are interested in this report, please reach out to your insights
together the “what” and “why” of shoppers. With the account manager or email shopperinsights@8451.com
unique ability to target based on shopper behavior,
4. Kroger Shares Top 10 Trending Foods of 2020
not claimed behavior, CR delivers confidence and
5. All quotes, unless otherwise noted, are from Kroger Customers who are members
efficiency. Consumer Research has expertise integrating of the 84.51° Consumer Research Beyond the Table Qualitative Community.
the voice of the customer with big data — empowering
6. Clickstream Insights
CPG and other partners to understand customers - If you are interested in learning more, reach out to your insights
at a human level. account manager or email shopperinsights@8451.com
© 84.51° 2021 7
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