Sunday, 10 February 2019 - Vellichor Group
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Sunday, 10 February 2019 VAT Number: GB286 5218 76 UK Company Number: 10884308 DUNS Number: 223121945 The information contained in this work is confidential and must not be reproduced or disclosed to others without the prior written permission of VELLICHOR GROUP. The reproduction of this work in any way is considered as counterfeiting and you are informed that any dissemination, copying or disclosure of the material contained herein, to include any attachments, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
VELLICHOR DAILY SECURITY SUMMARY 10 FEBRUARY 2019
1. COUNTRY OVERVIEW
Political developments in Libya are continuing to be dominated by events in the south-west of the country, which have led
to a number of statements by political actors over the past 24hrs. After the denunciation of airstrikes in the vicinity of Elephant
Airfield by the Presidential Council (PC) and an appeal to the current President of the United Nations Security Council
(UNSC), Anatolio Ndong Mba by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Government of National Accord (GNA), the United
Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed, by releasing a statement this morning. The UNSMIL highlighted the
obligation of all actors to protect civilians as well as the country’s resources. The statement continues by stressing the need
for all military operations to be confined to combatting terrorism and organised crime. The latter point would appear to serve
as an indirect political legitimisation of Libyan National Army (LNA) Operation Southern Liberation as it falls in line with its
previously announced main objectives. Furthermore, the statement does not directly touch upon yesterday’s airstrikes. A
number of meetings have taken place on the margins of the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia relating to the
Libya file. These involved UN Special Representative Ghassan Salamé, UN General Secretary António Guterres and
several of Libya’s neighbouring states. The overall themes of these meetings included the current situation in Libya, the
support for the UN-backed democratic process and the potentially significant role of African states in the provision of stability
as well as the importance of non-interference and respect for Libya’s national sovereignty.
In the south-west, LNA Operation Southern Liberation is continuing in its second phase with the objectives of securing
critical infrastructure (incl. Sharara Oil Field), the removal of foreign rebel and terrorist elements (incl. Murzuq & Umm Al
Aranib), and the consolidation of security in controlled areas (incl. Sabha and Ghadduwah). It should be noted that foreign
rebel forces have increasingly withdrawn from Libyan territory towards Niger (February 08) and Chad, with yesterday’s
confirmation by the Chief of Staff of the Chadian Armed Forces of the receipt of eighteen military vehicles, weaponry and
two-hundred-fifty soldiers of the opposition group Union of Resistance Forces (UFR), including its Chief of Staff, Osman
Mohamed Hussein and Spokesman, Tijuni Nigu. The development may indicate possible coordination between Operation
Southern Liberation and neighbouring states as well as supporting international actors. In the north-west, events continue
to point in the direction of the formation of allegiances and possible military formations between LNA and GNA-backed
forces. Yesterday’s meeting of the 17th of February Revolutionaries in the town of Gharyan resulted in a joint statement,
which included the opposition to the militarisation of the state and the support for the holding of the National Conference. In
the capital, unconfirmed media reports indicate a possible rift between the PC and GNA Interior Minister Fathi Pashaga
over the role of local armed groups in Tripoli.
2. REGIONAL SUMMARIES
TRIPOLITANIA CYRENAICA FEZZAN
Main areas of interest: Gharyan / Bani Main areas of interest: Derna – Main areas of interest: Sharara Oil
Waled – LNA Western Military Region Confirmed end of military operations Field – Contentious LNA control with
operations including the formation of with LNA units attempting to clear last possible ongoing negotiations.
the western axes and Operation building of Derna Protection Forces Elephant Field Area– Unconfirmed
Cordon of Hamada and the resulting (DPF). Kufra District – Continued high reports of clashes and airstrikes in the
potential build of opposition forces and state of alert and reconnaissance surrounding areas.
tensions in above-mentioned areas. patrol operations by Kufra Military
Region in light of possible movements Military Police units have begun
Unconfirmed reports of the entry of by hostile forces from southern border operations in the Ghadduwah area.
armed convoys into the areas of regions and Fezzan.
southern Zintan and the Wadi Al Athal The Awlad Suleiman Tribe has
Reserve, Sorman. The body of a suspected terrorist announced its support for the General
identified as Ahmed Abdel Wahab al- Command of the LNA.
Several arrests have been carried out Shaari was found by LNA forces in the
by local security forces in Misrata in Old City, Derna. The report comes Tank units under the 73rd Brigade of
connection to two targeted killings that after yesterday’s announcement of the the LNA are reported to be receiving
were carried out over the past two killing of suspected terrorist, Osama reinforcements in the south-western
days. Omran Badr. region.
The Ras Ajdir and Dehiba Wazin The Libyan Red Crescent has today A young male was arrested after a
border crossings, as well as Mitiga removed three unidentified bodies shooting incident on Central Security
Airport, are open and operational. from the Old City area, Derna. forces near the Fezzan Hotel, Sabha.
VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE Page | 1
VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
3. COUNTRYWIDE INCIDENTS
UNCONFIRMED KILLING OF
ENTRY OF ARMED SUSPECTED
CONVOYS TERRORIST &
S. ZINTAN & BODY FINDS
SORMAN OLD CITY
DERNA
ARRESTS
MISRATA
INTERCEPTION &
LANDING OF
AIRCAFT
TAMANHINT
AIRBASE
UNCONFIRMED
AIRSTRIKES &
CLASHES
ELEPHANT FIELD
AREA
ARREST
SABHA
4. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
4.1 Aircraft Interception & Landing – Tamanhint Airbase
3. MITIGA INT. AIRPORT:
At approx. 1415hrs Airport
Management confirmed the
arrival of the Libya Airlines
flight from Tamanhint
Airbase.
1. ELEPHANT AIRFIELD:
A Libya Airlines CRJ type 2. TAMANHINT AIRBASE:
aircraft departed during A LAF MiG-23 intercepts the
morning hours whilst LAF Libya Airline aircraft
operations were allegedly ordering it to land at
ongoing. The Air Force Tamanhint Airbase. Military
Operations Room had Intelligence members carry
announced air restrictions out brief investigations
on February 07 due to upon the aircraft’s arrival
combat operations in the after which the General
southern region, requiring Command gives approval
approval of all air traffic by for the continuation of the
the LAF. journey.
• The same aircraft was involved in yesterday’s arrival (unapproved by LNA Air Force Operations Room) of GNA
Sabha Military Region Commander Ali Kana at Elephant Airfield and subsequent LAF airstrikes in the surrounding
area. Exact Identification of passengers in today’s incident is so far unconfirmed.
VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE Page | 2
VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
• The imposition of air restrictions by the LNA Air Force Operations Room serves as an extension of control of LNA
operations on the ground, which include Operation Southern Liberation (south-west) and Operation Cordon of
Hamada (north-west).
5. OUTLOOK
No Significant Changes - The announced tour of meetings with main actors by UN Special Representative Salamé may
result in the progression of preparations of the National Conference. Developments regarding the control over Sharara Oil
Field will likely affect the overall political process with the possibility of further hostilities.
The LNA’s north-western operations via the Western Military Region are likely to increase with continued efforts at gaining
support amongst local forces and communities.
LNA Operation Southern Liberation is set to continue its air and ground offensives against targets in Murzuq and possibly
Umm Al Aranib with developments at Sharara Oil Field likely to influence the overall progress of operations.
6. RISK RATINGS
The current residual risk ratings countrywide for the main identified security risk, post implementation of the recommended
security controls as follows:
IMPACT
LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH EXTREME
EXTREME
LIKELIHOOD
V HIGH TRAFFIC INCIDENTS
ARMED CLASHES
KIDNAP
HIGH CRIMINALITY
MEDIUM
LOW
7. MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS
Daesh on the offensive across Africa (Arab News) – At a time when some world leaders are making extravagant and
disingenuous boasts about the strategic defeat of Daesh in Iraq and Syria, other segments of this terrorist movement are
establishing a vast “Islamic empire” across Africa.
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1449871
Sarraj throws a wrench in Haftar’s southern plans (The Arab Weekly) – Haftar’s tactic, having secured the south, is to
move towards Tripoli, building on alliances in Zintan and other towns in western Libya.
https://thearabweekly.com/sarraj-throws-wrench-haftars-southern-plans
8. SIGNIFICANT DATES & NATIONAL HOLIDAYS
DAY DATE EVENT COMMENTS
SUNDAY 17 February February 17th Revolution
WEDNESDAY 01 May Labour Day
WEDNESDAY 05 June Eid ul-Fitr End of Ramadan
THURSDAY 06 June Eid Al Fitr Holiday End of Ramadan
SUNDAY 11 August Arafat Day Date TBC. Arafat (Haj) Day
MONDAY 12 August Eid Al-Adha Date varies on Lunar cycle
TUESDAY 13 August Eid Al-Adha Holiday Date varies on Lunar cycle
WEDNESDAY 14 August Eid Al-Adha Holiday Date varies on Lunar cycle
SUNDAY 01 September Hijri New Year Islamic New Year
MONDAY 16 September Martyr’s Day
WEDNESDAY 23 October Liberation Day
SUNDAY 10 November Birthday of Prophet Muhammad
TUESDAY 24 December Independence Day
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9. LIBYA 5 DAY WEATHER FORECAST
Day Description High / Low Precip Wind
TONIGHT 10 FEB Clear - / 9° 0% SSE 8 km/h
MON 11 FEB Sunny 20° / 11° 0% WSW 18 km/h
TUE 12 FEB Rain 14° / 11° 70% NNW 24 km/h
WED 13 FEB Partly Cloudy 15° / 11° 0% N 26 km/h
THU 14 FEB Partly Cloudy 15° / 9° 0% N 20 km/h
FRI 15 FEB Mostly Cloudy 15° / 9° 20% NW 16 km/h
10. GENERAL SECURITY & SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS
Political situation – The political situation in Libya remains fragile and the security situation remains dangerous and
unpredictable. Fighting can break out anywhere without warning, including between local militia groups, and many civilians
have been killed in outbreaks of conflict in residential areas.
There’s a high risk of civilians, including journalists, humanitarian and medical workers, being caught in indiscriminate
gunfire or shelling, including air strikes, in all areas where there is fighting. Political events may impact on the security
situation.
Reports of violence, reprisal killings, looting and human rights abuses continue across the country. If you are planning to
travel to Libya, you should monitor the local security situation carefully and use a licensed and reputable security provider,
you should never travel alone.
Crime – Ongoing conflict and the proliferation of armed militias has led to a rise in crime in most areas, including violent
robbery, carjacking and kidnapping. There’s an elevated risk of kidnap for ransom and arbitrary detention by local militias
throughout Libya, and a very high risk of criminal kidnap for ransom in Tripoli and coastal towns to the West of Tripoli.
Foreigners are increasingly targeted for kidnappings by both criminal and extremist groups.
Local travel – If you travel to Libya, you should regularly reassess your security arrangements and carefully plan your
movements. Take security advice from competent security experts before any travel within the country. Close security
protection is extremely important.
In the event of a further deterioration of the security situation, routes in and out of major cities and towns may become
blocked and airports closed or inaccessible at little or no notice. Don’t advertise your travel or other plans through social
media. Avoid routine, vary your travel routes, and keep a low profile at all times.
Road travel – Road travel within Libya remains highly dangerous. There continues to be a risk of being caught up in
outbreaks of hostilities. There’s also a high risk of carjacking and robbery. The coastal road between Zawiyah and Tripoli
presents an elevated risk. There’s a risk of striking unexploded ordnance off-road. Road traffic accidents are frequent and
often result in fatalities.
Chad and Niger have closed their border with Libya on several occasions in 2017 without warning, in response to the activity
of armed groups in the area. Tunisian border crossings are affected by frequent clashes along the coastal road in west
Libya and are often inaccessible.
Air travel – Airports across Libya can close without warming and airlines may change their flight schedule without notice.
Contact your airline or travel company for further information before travelling.
Due to a number of ongoing safety concerns, the European Union has agreed with the Libyan authorities to continue a
voluntary restriction on Libyan airlines flying into the EU. However, some Libyan airlines operate flights to the EU using
aircraft leased from other airlines.
VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE Page | 4VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
We cannot offer advice on the safety of airlines. However, the International Air Transport Association publishes a list of
registered airlines that have been audited and found to meet a number of operational safety standards and recommended
practices. This list is not exhaustive and the absence of an airline from this list does not necessarily mean that it is unsafe.
VELLICHOR Disclaimer:
You are responsible for your own safety abroad and for making the decision to travel. The information contained in this
advisory is provided for information only. Whilst care is taken to ensure that this advisory is as up-to-date and accurate as
possible, it is provided on an "as is" basis without any representation or endorsement made and without warranty of any
kind, express or implied. VELLICHOR does not assume responsibility and shall not be liable for any damages in connection
to the advisory information provided.
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