SURVEY ANALYSIS REPORT SURVEY ANALYSIS REPORT - spotle.ai

Assignment - Conduct Opinion Polls For West
Bengal Assembly Elections 2021

   SURVEY ANALYSIS REPORT
   SURVEY ANALYSIS REPORT

        NAME: SHIVANSHU YADAV

        COLLEGE: NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT

        ROLL NUMBER: 20168

        EMAIL ID: YADAVSHIVANSHU523@GMAIL.COM

                             Microsoft account
                   [COMPANY NAME] [Company address]

INTRODUCTION TO THE PROJECT

   The project aims to predict the results of West Bengal 2020 Elections. The
   predictions were made on the basis of sample size of 150 opinion polls.
   An online form developed by the experts was circulated to collect the data
   that was used for making predictions. It enabled us to develop and test
   powerful statistical models for predicting elections. Based on the survey
   results, opinion poll was made. The project was also chosen to help
   develop political awareness in students and empower them to combine
   empirical surveys with pedagogic learning to make meaningful
   predictions about the country’s political landscape.
   The lockdown situation created a difficult time to go out and meet the
   people in person and get their opinions. There were numerous
   anonymous responses too.
   ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
                               AGE GROUP

                             Age group 18-25
• The total no people of the age group 18-25 are 71.4%.
• The survey form was sent to 150 people from different regions of the
  state. The responses thus received have been used to analyse the mood
  of the citizens for the 2021 elections. The age groups of the respondents
  have been divided into four categories mainly 18-25, 25-40, 40-55, 55-
  70.

If elections were to take place tomorrow, who would
                      you vote for?

The responses clearly portray that TMC has definitely gained popularity over the years and has made
a mark in common mass’ life but the percentage is not such that tables cannot be turned down by
the time of election. But BJP is progressing very fast to give them a tough fight. CPM isalso one of the
most preferred voting choice after TMC. This data also reflects that no party can form government
on its own individually or single-handedly, a collaboration would be definitely needed to form

agovernment.

If Assembly elections take place in West Bengal
tomorrow, then who would you like to see as the next
Chief Minister of the State?

Since most of them preferred Mamata Banerjee, according to this, TMC will win get 48.6% of vote
share and with Mamata Banerjee as CM. This has however become less seeing the switch of voters

to CPM as the they are preferred 17.8% standing next in line other than TMC. Majority of the youth
population is satisfied with Mamta Banerjee as their CM for the elections in 2021. This shows that
the reforms brought by Mamta Banerjee are wholeheartedly welcomed by the youth of West
Bengal. A significant number of respondents also show that they prefer someone else as the CM
candidate other than the candidates mentioned in the opinion poll form.

How much do you like the following parties - a lot,
somewhat, very little or don’t like at all?

   •   Communist Party Marxist (CPM) lies in a most liked spot in terms of liking among the
       respondents. The respondents are much satisfied with CPM as an influential political party.
   •   Bharatiya Janata Party lies in tough spot in terms of influential parties in West Bengal.
       Despite of it being 17.8% preferable party for voting in 2021, it is still being disliked by most
       of the respondents in West Bengal.
   •   Congress is somewhat liked by people as compared to BJP in West Bengal. This liking can be
       due to the collaboration between TMC and INC. The collaboration has a significant hand for
       respondents to like this party.

Who do you like more – Narendra Modi or Mamata
Banerjee?
This analysis shows that nearly 35.5% of the respondents show liking for
Mamta Banerjee as their leader and only 16.8% of the respondents show

liking for Narendra Modi

Are you aware of the Citizenship Amendment Bill that
was introduced in Parliament by the government
recently?

Of the total 200 people surveyed in West Bengal 85.7% people are aware about
the Citizenship Amendment Bill and 14.3% claim to be unaware about the
Citizenship Amendment Bill. The support and revolts against the passing of the
bill, the riots in West Bengal made a nationwide headline so the people are
aware about the Citizenship Amendment Bill.

Do you support or oppose the Citizenship
Amendment Bill?

The chart shows the opinion of the respondents on how much they oppose or support the bill. Of
the total population we see a variety of responses in favour as well as not in favour of supporting the
Citizenship Amendment Bill. There are 42.1% of the total respondents fully opposing the Citizenship
Amendment bill whereas 18.7% are in support of the Citizenship Amendment Bill.

Have relations between Hindus and Muslims in your
area improve or worsened in the last five years?

Majority of people in west Bengal belief that Hindu-Muslim relations have improved in past few
years The relationship between Hindus and Muslims has always been used as apolitical game by the
parties and thus affects the election results. It seems to be a major issue in the verdict of the
upcoming elections. 61.5% people feel relations have improved.

Did a candidate/party worker of the following parties
come to your house to ask for your vote in the last
one month?

Physical approaches were not undertaken by enough parties because of the pandemic conditions in
West Bengal and throughout India because of the pandemic situations. So, we can see that not
enough parties physically pay visits to ask for the vote in last one month

Were you or any of your family members contacted
by the following parties through a phone call or
recorded voice or SMS or WhatsApp in the last one
month?
Majority of people say parties have not approached them directly through any means for
propaganda

SUMMARY

n the 2016 elections, the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) retained its majority in the Legislative
Assembly by securing almost 70% of the total seats while the Indian National Congress(INC) + The
Left Front (led by CPI(M)) secured 25.6% seats and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured only 1%
of the total seats. However, in the 2019 general elections of West Bengal, the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) won almost 43% of the total seats against the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC)’s 52% seats.

This significant increase in vote share from the previous 2016 Assembly elections points towards a
new hope for the BJP. Moreover, a controversial event that might be a game changer for BJP is the
Citizenship (Amendment) Bill (CAB) that was passed in December 2019 which promises citizenship
and habilitation to Non-Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh.