THE IRISHJOBS.IE JOBS INDEX - Quarter 1, 2013 Stephen Kinsella
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THE
IRISHJOBS.IE
Quarter 1, 2013
JOBS INDEX Stephen Kinsella
THE IRISHJOBS.IE JOBS INDEX 1Overview Total Jobs
n Total jobs are down 4% from the same 200
period last year, while the quarterly 180
change in total jobs advertised is down
160
21%.
140
n Q1 figures demonstrate an overall
120
strengthening of the labour market in Total
Jobs,
Q2:2009
=
100
relation to key sectors and regions 100
compared with the Jobs Index 2009 80
baseline.
60
n Dublin saw an increase in jobs 40
advertised from the same period last
20
year of 4%, while Limerick jobs rose
0
1% and Cork jobs fell 4%. Galway jobs
2009:Q2
2010:Q1
2010:Q3
2011:Q1
2011:Q3
2012:Q1
2012:Q3
2013:Q1
fell 28% and Waterford jobs fell 27%
n Year on year, Manufacturing (+17%),
Sales (+2%), and Tourism (+16%) Figure 1: Total jobs are down 4% year on year, down 21% quarterly. Q2:
have experienced positive gains 2009 = 100. What is contributing to this slump? Residual uncertainty
relative to the same period last year. from the budget, coupled with a sharp drop in domestic demand.
Our index closely matches findings
from the NCB Manufacturing Regional Focus
Purchasing Managers' Index, which
200
fell to 48.6 in March from 51.5 in
February, below the 50 line dividing 180
growth from contraction for the first 160
time since February last year.
140
120
100
Is uncertainty driving stagnation? 80
The IrishJobs.ie index measures employer 60
expectations by monitoring the number of
40
Dublin
Galway
Limerick
new, corporate jobs advertised during a
Cork
Waterford
quarter. As such it is a strong leading 20
indicator and correlates well with other 0
measures of employment and output 2010:Q2
2010:Q4
2011:Q2
2011:Q4
2012:Q2
2012:Q4
performance like the purchasing managers’
indices for services and manufacturing.
Manufacturing activity in Ireland, for Figure 2. Regional focus. Dublin saw an increase from the same period
example, has now expanded for 12 last year of 4%, while Limerick jobs rose 1% and Cork jobs fell 4%.
successive months, far longer than other Galway jobs fell 28% and Waterford jobs fell 27%. Q2: 2010=100.
European countries, and is up 17% from
THE IRISHJOBS.IE JOBS INDEX 2the same quarter last year.
County Focus
The headlines this quarter are a reflection
of the prevailing macroeconomic
uncertainty surrounding the Irish Year on
Quarterly
economy, but, when we dig a little into the Year
change
data, do reflect an overall strengthening of Change
Carlow 16 -2
the labour market within the Irish
Cavan 6 31
economy as things get back on track
Clare -37 32
following a disastrous few years for
Cork -13 25
workers and employers.
Donegal 143 -2
In this report, we’ll look at job availability Dublin 4 19
by county, by industry, and look Galway -28 23
specifically at manufacturing and tourism. Kerry 22 17
The Dublin Airport Authority reported Kildare 32 13
large increases in the number of passengers Kilkenny 29 11
passing through compared to previous Laois -19 27
years as the number of tourists visiting Leitrim 57 -29
Ireland rose 4.4 per cent from November Limerick 0 17
to January. Longford 0 49
Louth -4 -6
Counties growing Mayo 7 23
Meath -1 16
Year on year many counties are
Monaghan -13 0
experiencing growth in all types of jobs.
Offaly -5 0
Carlow, for example, has experienced a
Roscommon -23 23
16% increase in jobs advertised, while
Sligo 16 0
Dublin’s annual growth has been around
Tipperary -18 21
4%.
Waterford -28 23
Kilkenny has seen increases of nearly 29%, Westmeath -11 8
while Waterford, saw drops of 28%. Other Wexford -18 24
counties like Kerry saw increases of 22%, Wicklow 8 22
while Midland counties like Laois and
Offaly experienced drops of 19% and 5%
Table 1. County level increases and decreases in job availability
respectively. Table 1 to the right shows the comparing Q1, 2013 to Q1, 2012, and Q4 2012 to Q1 2013.
detailed breakdown.
By region, Dublin and the southwest
account for almost all of the Irish
economy’s recent expansion in
employment, while both regions also
recorded the State’s lowest unemployment
rates as of the final quarter of 2012.
The recent study on regional employment
by Edgar Morgenroth of the ESRI shows a
marked change in unemployment when
THE IRISHJOBS.IE JOBS INDEX 3we consider the regional dimension.
Jobs availability: Dublin
While many of the regions we study in the
IrishJobs report had jobless rates of below
Transport, Warehousing & Motor 1
12 per cent, the labour market in the
southeast remains the worst affected, with Tourism, Travel & Airlines 1
unemployment there at 19.4 per cent.
Telecoms 0
South-East, followed by the Border,
17.7%, and Midlands, 17.4%, regions. Social & Not for Profit 1
Security, Trades & General 0
What jobs are there in Dublin? Secretarial & Admin 2
Figure 3 to the right shows, as a Science, Pharmaceutical & Food 2
percentage of the total jobs available in
Dublin in this quarter, what sectors are Sales 13
hiring. In March, 14.1 per cent of the Retailing, Wholesaling & 2
workforce was formally jobless, so looking
carefully at the most populous area of the Publishing, Media & Creative 1
country really matters. Public Sector 4
The IT sector jumps right out from Figure Production, Manufacturing & 3
3, with 16% of jobs available. Next with
Medical Professionals & 2
have Sales, with 13% of jobs available,
Banking with 10%, and Hotel and Marketing 7
Catering with 7% of the total. Legal 1
These findings square with other reports IT 16
showing that retail, information
HR / Recruitment 1
technology, scientific activities, finance
and real estate all recorded at least two Hotel & Catering 7
consecutive quarters of employment
General Management 5
growth in Ireland.
Environmental, Health & Safety 0
Now let’s look closely at how some of the
best performing sectors are doing. Engineering & Utilities 2
Education, Childcare & Training 2
Sales Customer Service, Call Centres & 6
The Sales sector has seen robust growth Construction, Architecture & 1
even during the downturn. And yet no
major third level courses exist to up skill Beauty,Hair Care,Leisure & Sport 1
students in this area. Overall jobs in Sales Banking, Financial services & 10
are up 2% from the same period last year,
Accountancy & Finance 5
with a very strong increase across the
period the IrishJobs.ie Jobs Index 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
measures-the second quarter of 2009 to
today, up by 53% during this period.
Figure 4 shows the performance of Sales Figure 3. Job availability in Dublin, Q1, 2013. Clearly IT, Sales, and
Finance are the strongest areas of labour demand.
THE IRISHJOBS.IE JOBS INDEX 4relative to other sectors.
Industry’s winners and losers
Manufacturing 600
IT
The real high flyer in Irish industry at the 500
moment is manufacturing, up 17% from Sales
the same quarter last year. Figure 4 shows 400
its stellar performance relative to other Manufacturing
sectors over the medium term. 300
Hotel/Catering
Irish manufacturing has consistently
outperformed the euro zone average over 200
the past 12 months. The survey reached a
15-month high of 53.9 in July last year. 100
As mentioned above, Manufacturing’s 0
increase over the period in the IrishJobs.ie 2009:Q2
2010:Q1
2010:Q3
2011:Q1
2011:Q3
2012:Q1
2012:Q3
2013:Q1
Report is well in line with the NCB
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’
Index, which has unfortunately fallen
somewhat in the latest data, to 48.6 in
March from 51.5 in February 2013. Figure 4. Job availability for IT, Manufacturing, Sales, and
Hotel/Catering. Q2 2009 = 100. Manufacturing’s increases are clearly
seen.
Hotel & Catering
This sector experienced a large shock Industry breakdown
during the first stage of Ireland’s economic
Quarter
crisis, shedding large numbers of workers From Year on on
as the global economic downturn forced Index Year Quarter
both domestic demand and international Quarter Change Change
demand for all tourism services
downward. Accountancy/Finance 72 -25 -13
Banking/Financial services/Insurance 143 20 -5
Combined with a decrease in
Beauty, Leisure/Sport -46 -9 -5
competitiveness and a significant
oversupply, hotel and catering businesses Construction, Architecture & Property 108 3 -11
have struggled to survive since 2007. Now Customer Service/Call
things seem to be brightening, with a 16% Centres/Languages 21 -13 -18
increase from the same period last year.
Education/Childcare/Training -16 -2 -8
Like IT, Hotel and Catering is once again Engineering/Utilities 76 -7 5
a growing sector for employment in Environmental/Health & Safety 67 114 7
Ireland.
General Management 36 -18 -26
Hotel & Catering 28 16 5
Industry Breakdown HR /Recruitment 246 -1 -6
IT 115 -15 -13
Table 2 to the right shows which industries
Legal 29 -51 -38
are forging ahead, and which ones falling
Marketing 97 2 -40
THE IRISHJOBS.IE JOBS INDEX 5behind.
Medical Professionals/Healthcare 39 7 -4
Essentially we see a large increase for
Production/Manufacturing/Materials 289 17 -3
almost all sectors over the period from the
Public Sector 20 25 -10
index quarter, Q2 2009, apart from
Construction, -141%, Education -16%, and Publishing, Media & Creative Arts -6 -8 12
Retailing and Wholesaling -28%. The
decline of publishing and media type jobs Retailing, Wholesaling & Purchasing -28 -3 -23
is clearly evident over this period as well Sales 53 2 -23
with a drop of -9%.
Science, Pharmaceutical & Food 3 -26 -14
From 2009 large gains have been made in Secretarial & Admin 53 -3 2
industries like Manufacturing, up 289%, Security, Trades & General Services -45 -7 -24
IT, up 115%, and Engineering, up 76%. Social & Not for Profit 55 50 0
Annually the changes are mixed, with Tourism, Travel & Airlines 118 16 7
Accountancy and Finance down 25%, Transport, Warehousing & Motor 57 17 -27
Legal down 51% and General
Management down 18%.
Table 2. Changes in job availability by industry, looking at the index year,
Annually the largest winners are for Q2, 2009, the year on year change, and quarter on quarter change.
industries like Banking and Financial
Services, +20%, Hotel and Catering +16%, A note on the data
Manufacturing +17%, and Transport
+17%.. The report looks at all corporate jobs advertised on IrishJobs.ie and
Jobs.ie from 1/01/2013 -31/03/2013.
Quarterly however almost all sectors
experienced a decline in job availability,
with notable exceptions being Engineering
+5%, Tourism and Travel +7%, and Hotel
and Catering, +5%.
Overall the picture by industry shows that
the pace of increases in services like Hotel
and Catering and in manufacturing
businesses are increasing, while others lag
behind.
Conclusion
Total jobs advertised are down year on
year, but just barely. They point to an
economy still experiencing great
difficulties in transitioning from a
construction based bubble economy to a
more sustainable economy based on sound
fundamentals. We will look next quarter to
see for signs of a gradual recovery in jobs
in sectors like Sales and Hotel & Catering.
THE IRISHJOBS.IE JOBS INDEX 6THE IRISHJOBS.IE JOBS INDEX 7
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