The World in 2050 Nebojsa Nakicenovic - Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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The World in 2050 Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Former Professor of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology International Symposium on Global Sustainable Development Goals in a Mediatized World, Austrian Academy of Sciences – 4 April 2019
The World in 2050 and the Six
Grand Transformations
towards SDGs SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Former Professor of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology
International Symposium on Global Sustainable Development Goals
in a Mediatized World, Austrian Academy of Sciences – 4 April 2019
Four Great Achievements since the Beginning of Industrial Revolution Life expectancy has doubled in a century One billion are obese while less go hungry Less die by war and violence than suicide Everyone in the world has a mobile phone Nakicenovic 2019 #3
Mobile Phones Charging
Source: Modi, 2011
Nakicenovic 2019 #4
Wood for Cooking
Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, 2013
Nakicenovic 2019 #5
The Great Gatsby Curve
Higher income inequality associated with lower intergenerational mobility
.
The Great Gatsby Curve
Intergenerational earnings elasticity
0.6 United States
0.6
(2010 Gini)
United States
(2010)
0.5 United Kingdom 0.5
United States
0.4 France 0.4
Japan
Germany
0.3 0.3
New Zealand
Sweden
y = 2.2x - 0.27
R² = 0.76
0.2 Finland 0.2
Norway
Denmark y = 2.2x - 0.27
R² = 0.76
0.1 0.1
0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40
Inequality
(1985 Gini Coefficient)
Nakicenovic Source: Corak OECD, 2011; Kruger CEA, 2012 2019 #6
Nakicenovic 2019 #7
100,000-year ice-core record
Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen 2009.
Nakicenovic 2019 #8
Tipping Elements & Paris
Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016
Nakicenovic 2019 #9
Global Fossil CO2 Emissions
Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2017, 63% over 1990
Projection for 2018: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.7% higher than 2017 (range 1.8% to 3.7%)
Uncertainty is ±5% for
one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)
Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data.
Nakicenovic Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018 2019 #10Climate Change & SDGs Key messages derived from IPCC SR1.5 ● Climate Change is undermining sustainable development ● NDCs are insufficient to limit temperatures to 1.5°C ● There are multiple synergies between limiting warming to 1.5oC and achievement of the SDGs
Nakicenovic 2019 #12
Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
1.2%
1.0%
Total Global Policy Costs (2010‐2030)
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Nakicenovic Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014 2019 #13Nakicenovic 2019 #14
Interactions between SDG 7 & other SDGs Nakicenovic Source: McCollum et. al, 2018 2019 #15
Interlinkages among interlinkages among Goals and targets
the SDGs
Using knowledge on interlinkages to
exploit synergies and minimize
trade-offs in the policy process can
contribute to overall policy coherence
• Survey of existing publications
• A tool to visualize the cumulated
interlinkages from a set
of publications
• Meta analysis of the main studies
on interlinkages
Nakicenovic Source: Miola, 2019 2019 #16Interlinkages among interlinkages among Goals and targets
the SDGs
Using knowledge on interlinkages to
exploit synergies and minimize
trade-offs in the policy process can
contribute to overall policy coherence
• Survey of existing publications
• A tool to visualize the cumulated
interlinkages from a set
of publications
• Meta analysis of the main studies
on interlinkages
Nakicenovic Source: Miola, 2019 2019 #17Interlinkages among interlinkages among Goals and targets
the SDGs
Using knowledge on interlinkages to
exploit synergies and minimize
trade-offs in the policy process can
contribute to overall policy coherence
• Survey of existing publications
• A tool to visualize the cumulated
interlinkages from a set
of publications
• Meta analysis of the main studies
on interlinkages
Nakicenovic Source: Miola, 2019 2019 #18TWI2050 Report (www.TWI2050.org)
Key Messages
Synthesis
1. Framing and Introduction
2. The Challenges Ahead
3. Sustainable Development
Pathways
4. Governing the Transformation
>60 authors from ~20
organizations
>150 contributors and
TWI2050 Writing Meeting
participants 5-7 March 2018, IIASA
Nakicenovic 2018 #19TWI2050 Report Launch
@ HLPF 2018
● Advancing STI for SDGs
– July 10, 11-13:00, @ UN HQ,
Conference Room 4
● TWI2050 Report Launch
– July 12, 13-15:00 @ UN HQ,
Conference Room S-1522/23
TWI2050 Launch HLPF
● Managing interactions between 10 July 2018, UN
SDGs for transformation
– July 12, 18:30-20:00 @ UN HQ,
Conference Room A
● @ German House
– July 17, 13:30 – 15:00, Permanent Mission of the Republic
of Germany to the UN, UN Plaza
Nakicenovic 2018 #20Outreach & Impact
● > 2,500 report downloads (IIASA only)
● > 400 hard copies disseminated
● 6 Policy briefs for EGMs and HLPF
● Input to Technology Facilitation
Mechanism of STI for SDGs and HLPF on
SDGs review
● Box on digitalization in upcoming GSDR
● > 55 citations (report and initiative) on
Google Scholar
Nakicenovic 2018 #21Nakicenovic 2018 #22
Some Key Messages
Attaining the SDGs requires vigorous action now,
and a people and planet focus beyond 2030!
As everything is integrated in the connected world,
transformation requires a holistic perspective!
Transformational change is needed but to succeed
we must take along winners and losers!
The world is at crossroads as we are currently
experiencing signs of a counter-transformation!
A central to sustainability transformation is effective
and inclusive governance!
Think globally, act locally! Think long-term, act now!
Nakicenovic 2018 #23The World in 2050 (TWI2050.org)
“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries
Target space 2050+ → Vision:
Sustainable
Future
Transformation
One “backcasting” storyline and
many transformational pathways
← Target space 2030
Legitimacy of
BAU eroding
2030 2050
Nakicenovic Source: After WBGU, 2011 2018 #24Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
Digital Human capacity
Revolution Demography &
Health
Smart Cities SDGs: Consumption
Prosperity
& Mobility Social Inclusion & Production
Sustainability
Food, Biosphere Decarbonization
& Water & Energy
Nakicenovic 2018 #25Education and Human Capacity
100
90
Primary education
80
70
60
share (%)
Secondary education
50
40
30 Transformation (SSP1)
20
Tertiary education
10
0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Nakicenovic Source: Lutz et al., 2018 2019 #26“Carbon Law” Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law” Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
“Carbon Law” Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
Greenhouse gas emissions pathways
● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2
SDGs:
Prosperity emissions fall by about 45% by
Social Inclusion
Sustainability 2030 (from 2010 levels)
● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2
emissions would need to reach
‘net zero’ around 2050
● Reducing non‐CO2 emissions
would have direct and immediate
health benefits
1Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
Digital Human capacity
Revolution Demography &
Health
Smart Cities SDGs: Consumption
Prosperity
& Mobility Social Inclusion
& Production
Sustainability
Food, Biosphere Decarbonization
& Water & Energy
Nakicenovic 2018 #31Impact of IC Technology Convergence
Uticaj konvergencije informacijskih i komunikacijskih tehnologija
Nakicenovic Source: Grubler et al., 2018 2018 #32Impact of IC Technology Convergence
Uticaj konvergencije informacijskih i komunikacijskih tehnologija
Nakicenovic Source: Grubler et al., 2018 2018 #33Technology Diffusion Compared
digital revolution
Nakicenovic Source: Nokia Bell Labs, 2017 2018 #34Disruptive Change Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt. Nakicenovic Source: Campanale, Carobntracker 2019 #35
Nakicenovic 2019 #36
THANK YOU naki@iiasa.ac.at
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