Vaccine Tracker 14 April 2021 - The Bank of East Asia
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Vaccine Tracker 14 April 2021
Covid-19 had a US$7 trillion impact in 2020 but the efficacy and rate
of vaccination could be the game changer
Global Economic Impact of COVID-19 General Government Debt (Percent of GDP)
120,000 140
World War II Global 123.9%
110,000 120 124.1% Financial
Global economic size Crisis
100,000 (forecast in Oct 2019) 100
US$ billion
Advanced
80
90,000 economies
62.5%
60
80,000 46.9%
Global economic size
(forecast in Oct 2020) 40
70,000
20 Emerging market
60,000
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 economies
0
Source: IMF 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: IMF
Economic cost:
Unprecedented stimulus leaves countries more
US$7 trillion (7.8%) of global 2020 GDP indebted than at any point in modern history.
US$23.5 trillion over 2020-24Six vaccine front runners but more in pipeline
Developer Reported Doses Production Price per Storage Status
efficacy rate required in 2021 dose, US$ requirement
Pfizer-BioNTech 95% 2 Up to 2 bn 19.5 -75oC Approved: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland.
(2-8oC: 5 days) Emergency use: US, EU & others
Moderna 94.1% 2 600m – 1 bn 32-37 -20oC Approved: Switzerland
(2-8oC: 30 days) Emergency use: US, UK, EU, others.
AstraZeneca / 70% 2 3bn 1.5-4 2-8oC Approved in Brazil
Oxford Emergency use: UK, EU, others
Stop using in Denmark
Sinopharm 79% 2 1 bnMessy early start to vaccination
Share of population receiving at least one dose
of Covid-19 Vaccines Speed of vaccination: developed vs developing
70% Country Doses Doses per 1+ dose Fully
Israel, 61.6% administered 100 people per 100 vaccinated
60% (million) people
50% US 192.3 57.4 36.1 22.9
UK, 47.5%
40%
China 175.6 12.2 -- --
US, 36.1%
Bahrain, EU 101.1 22.6 16.4 6.2
30%
33.4%
UK 40.1 59.1 47.5 11.6
20%
EU, 16.4% Israel 10.3 118.9 61.6 57.2
10%
UAE 9.3 93.9 -- --
0%
16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan 14-Feb 01-Mar 16-Mar 31-Mar
World 825.1 10.6 5.9 2.3
Source: Our World in Data (data as at 14 Apr 2021) Source: Bloomberg (data as at 14 April 2021)
More than 832.9 million doses have been administered around Speed depends on a number of factors, including logistics, #
the world (≈ 18 million doses / day) of healthcare practitioners, vaccination centresVaccine skepticism a key concern
73 COVID-19 Vaccine acceptance across various countries/regions (%)
70 69 68
64 63
61 60
Accept Reject Don't know
55 54 53
51 50
47 48
44
37
34
31 31
28 29 28 28
25 26 25 26 26
24
21 23 21 23 21
20 19 19 20 20
18 17
18
15 15 16 15 15
13
11 10
SWEDEN
ITALY
MAINLAND CHINA
UK
US
SINGAPORE
SPAIN
UAE
HONG KONG
GERMANY
DENMARK
INDIA
FRANCE
AUSTRALIA
POLAND
INDONESIA
MEXICO
Note: The suvery was conducted between 7th-20th December, 2020 with the question "If or when a COVID-19 vaccines becomes available, will you get yourself vaccinated?".
Sources: Reuters, YouGov
In Britain & Denmark, a respective 73% & 70% of people said they would get vaccinated.
But the ratio was less than 50% in the US, Germany; and less than 30% in France and Poland.Vaccination alone may not reduce infection rate
Israel: COVID-19 Cases and Vaccination Rate World: COVID-19 Cases and Vaccination Rate
800,000 60%
9,000 Daily new cases 70% Daily new cases
61.6% 700,000
8,000
60% 50%
7,000 600,000
50%
40%
6,000 500,000
Vaccination rate
5,000 (per 100 population) 40%
400,000 30%
4,000 30%
300,000
20%
3,000
20% 200,000 Vaccination rate (100
2,000
population) 10%
1,000
10% 100,000 5.9%
0 0%
0 0% Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21
Sources: Bloomberg; Our World in Data (data as at 14 Apr 2020) Source: Bloomberg (Data as at 14 Apr 2020)
Remark: The new Covid-19 cases are in 7-day rolling average Remark: The new Covid-19 cases are in 7-day rolling average
Even vaccination goes as fast as Israel, its infection rate was still elevated until the vaccination rate goes high enough.
A single dose is providing less protection; while Israel is facing a bottleneck in vaccination rate.
Danger: a high vaccination rate may draw false sense of security and people may become lax in social distancing.Years before the world returns to normal
Scenario Bear Case Base Case Optimistic Case
Speed of vaccination in a month (% of population 1% 1.2% 5%
inoculated with 2 doses)
Vaccine efficacy Vaccine coverage of total Time required for herd immunity (months)
rate population required
95% 63% 63 53 13
90% 67% 67 56 13
80% 75% 75 63 15
70% 86% 86 71 17
60% 100% 100 83 20
Assumptions:
Covid-19 reproduction rate = 2.5 Herd immunity threshold = 60% of population
(Before lockdowns in most countries, the reproduction rate is between 2.5 to 3.5)
Duration of vaccine immunity = life-long protection
US & UK may reach herd immunity within a year, but it can take about 5 years for the world, and it is very probable that it will
take longer…Disclaimer This document is prepared by The Bank of East Asia, Limited (“BEA”) for customer reference only. Other than disclosures relating to BEA, the content is based on information available to the public and reasonably believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified. Any projections and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof, are expressed solely as general market commentary, and do not constitute an offer of securities, nor a solicitation, suggestion, investment advice, or guaranteed return. The information, forecasts, and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without prior notification, and should not be regarded as any investment product or market recommendations. This document has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, or any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. BEA will update the published research as needed and as required by the law. In addition to certain reports published on a periodic basis, other reports may be published at irregular intervals as appropriate without prior notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of BEA, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and stated returns contained in this document, and no liability is accepted for any loss arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of such information (whether due to infringements or contracts or other aspects). Investment involves risks. The price of investment products may go up or down. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The investments mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all investors, and the specific investment objectives or experience, financial situation, or other needs of each recipient are not considered. Therefore, you should not make any investment decisions based solely on this document. You should make investment decisions based on your own investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation, and specific needs; if necessary, you should seek independent professional advice before making any investment. The views and opinions in this document do not constitute the official views of BEA. This document is the property of BEA and is protected by relevant intellectual property laws. Without the prior written consent of BEA, the information herein is not allowed to be copied, transferred, sold, distributed, published, broadcast, circulated, modified, or developed commercially, in either electronic or printed forms, nor through any media platforms that exist now or are developed later. For more information, please visit our webpage at https://www.hkbea.com/html/en/bea-about-bea-economic-research.html. For any enquiries, please contact the Economic Research Department (email: lerd@hkbea.com, tel: (852) 3609-1504, post: GPO Box 31, Hong Kong). © 2021 The Bank of East Asia, Limited
For further information please contact Economic Research Department. Celia Lam Annie Wong Mary Kwan LAMCYH1@hkbea.com WONGAYK@hkbea.com KWANMHT@hkbea.com 3609 1542 3609 1534 3609 1543
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