The Worldwide Business Impact of the Coronavirus and How to Safeguard Your Supply Chain - ADUN & BRADSTREETWEBINAR - Informa
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
A DUN & BRADSTREET WEBINAR The Worldwide Business Impact of the Coronavirus and How to Safeguard Your Supply Chain MARCH 16, 2020
Today’s Panel of Experts Brian Alster Markus Kuger Andrew Wu General Manager Chief Economist General Manager Third-Party Risk & Dun & Bradstreet Mainland China & Compliance Solutions Hong Kong SAR Dun & Bradstreet Dun & Bradstreet
Agenda
– Supply Chain Impact
– Macroeconomic Impact
– Recovery in Greater China
– Q&A and Closing Comments
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 3
Supply Chain Impact Brian Alster, General Manager Third-Party Risk & Compliance Solutions
Overview: Business Impact
CONFIRMED CASES OF THE CORONAVIRUS
• The World Health Organization
(WHO) has now declared the
coronavirus outbreak a pandemic
• Dun & Bradstreet has been
performing ongoing analysis of cities
and locations most impacted by
government-enforced restrictions to
determine supply chain and
customer portfolio risks
Source: World Health Organization, Esri | WHO; as of March 15, 2020, 4pm CET
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 5
What Does This All Mean For Supply Chains?
SUPPLIERS BUSINESSES IN MOST IMPACTED LOCATIONS:
DISTRIBUTION BY INDUSTRY
In locked down cities 30%
and territories 26.2%
25%
21.7%
1M+ 5.6M
20%
15%
companies companies 11.6%
10.6% 9.8%
worldwide have one or 10% 8.5%
have one or more Tier 2 7.1%
more Tier 1 suppliers 4.3%
5%
suppliers
0.2%
0%
Source: Dun & Bradstreet; March 12, 2020
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 6
Impact via Corporate Linkage Remains Significant
GLOBAL HEADQUARTERS DISTRIBUTION OF
BUSINESSES IN THE MOST IMPACTED REGIONS:
TOP 5 COUNTRIES
USA
16.4%
≈32K
France 10.0% businesses in businesses operating
49.8% impacted areas have in impacted areas are
Germany corporate ties branches or subsidiaries
Spain 9.3% throughout the globe of companies
headquartered
UK elsewhere
8.4%
Others 6.2%
Source: Dun & Bradstreet; March 12, 2020
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 7
Shipment Patterns Reveal Products that Run the Risk…
TOP 10 EXPORTS TO THE WORLD FROM THE MOST IMPACTED LOCATIONS AS A
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL EXPORT VALUE
Toys, games and sports requisites 1.9%
Organic chemicals 2.0%
Iron or steel articles 2.2%
Optical and photographic equipment 2.3%
Vehicles; parts and accessories 2.5%
Plastics and articles thereof 2.6%
Furniture and related articles 3.2%
Apparel and accessories 4.8%
Nuclear reactors, boilers and parts 17.6%
Electrical machinery, equipment and parts 21.8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Source: Dun & Bradstreet; March 12, 2020
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 8
…of Shortages as the Outbreak Has Become a Global Pandemic
U.S. IMPORTS FROM THE MOST IMPACTED LOCATIONS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL IMPORTS
Plastic or Rubber Footwear 62.8%
Articles and Equipment for Physical Exercise 65.7%
TV Receivers, Video Monitors and Projectors 69.0%
Plastic Articles 69.5%
Electric Water, Space, and Oil Heaters 73.0%
Hand tools and parts 75.5%
Floor & Wall Covers 84.2%
Toys, Scale Models, Puzzles, and Parts 84.7%
Tableware & Household Articles 85.0%
Light Fittings 86.4%
Source: Dun & Bradstreet; March 12, 2020
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 9
How Can Businesses Prepare?
Develop a risk- Monitor your full Understand and
based assessment supply chain – both identify alternative
process for your Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers – limit
supply chain – both dependencies
onboarding and
ongoing monitoring
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 10An Insight Into Alternative Suppliers
TOP PRODUCTS IMPORTED FROM CHINA AND POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE SUPPLIER COUNTRIES
Product Possible alternative supplier country
Electrical machinery, equipment, and parts Brazil
Nuclear reactors, boilers, and parts Chile, Singapore
Furniture and parts Mexico
Toys, games, and sports requisites Mexico, Brazil
Plastics and articles made of plastic Mexico, Brazil
Motor vehicles and parts Chile, Colombia, India
Apparel and clothing accessories Brazil, Canada
Optical, medical,and surgical instruments Colombia, Brazil, India
Source: UN Comtrade and Dun & Bradstreet; February 5, 2020
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 11Macroeconomic Impact Markus Kuger, Chief Economist
Recent Updates Regarding the Coronavirus
“What we’ve actually done is utilize our supply chain data and
we’ve found that over five million companies around the globe
have a direct, or a second tier supplier in the impacted region,
Besides supply chain impact, Several central banks have cut which really goes to tell you how impactful this has become.”
coronavirus pandemic is a interest rates (including the US –Brian Alster, General Manager, Third-Party Risk & Compliance, Dun
& Bradstreet
severe demand shock Federal Reserve and the Bank of
England)
"A special briefing issued by global business research firm Dun
& Bradstreet analyzed the Chinese provinces most impacted by
the virus, and found they are intricately linked to the global
business network."
Dun & Bradstreet has Governments have announced
downgraded country risk fiscal stimulus packages and
ratings for several economies measures to help ailing “A Chinese quarantine applying to roughly 60 million people –
in response to the recent businesses more than the population of Spain – interrupted routine
business operations for almost every member of the Fortune
developments 1000 list.” –Dun & Bradstreet
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 13What Impact is the Coronavirus Pandemic Having on the Markets?
ADDITIONAL
FACTORS ADDING
STRAIN TO SYSTEM
Pandemic comes at Stock markets are Exchange rates: US Oil prices dropped
a time when global highly volatile with dollar is gradually by more than 20% on
economic headwinds airlines, tourism, and losing its interest 9 March (biggest drop
were already high. banks currently seeing rate advantage since 1991)
Economies like Italy above-average drops in as the US Federal Other commodity prices
and Japan are probably share prices Reserve has cut rates, also falling (except gold)
already in recession thereby creating upward
with others to follow pressure on currencies
like the Euro and the
Swiss Franc
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 14Recovery in Greater China Andrew Wu, General Manager Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR
Recovery is Underway in China
CURRENT CONFIRMED CASES/SUSPECTED CASES/ CURRENT CONFIRMED CASES
CUMULATIVE CONFIRMED CASES
MAR 12: MAR 12:
Current Confirmed Cases: 13,607 National: 13,607
Suspected Cases: 147 Hubei: 13,171
Cumulative Confirmed Cases: 81,003 Non-Hubei: 436
Current Confirmed Suspected Cumulative Confirmed National Hubei Non-Hubei
(Data as of Mar 12) (Data as of Mar 12)
Data Source: https://voice.baidu.com/act/newpneumonia/newpneumonia/?from=osari_pc_1
Chinese Only
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 16Recovery is Underway in China
CUMULATIVE CONFIRMED CASES BY PROVINCE CURRENT CONFIRMED CASES BY PROVINCE
(Data as of Mar 13) (Data as of Mar 13)
Data Source: https://voice.baidu.com/act/newpneumonia/newpneumonia/?from=osari_pc_1
Chinese Only
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 17Strong Measures Taken to Restrict Movement of People
Chinese authorities implemented agile “social distancing” measures across the entire country to contain
the spread of the coronavirus
Low Risk
Medium Risk
City Lockdowns: Social Distancing in other regions: Self Quarantine:
High Risk
RISK LEVEL IN HUBEI PROVINCE
Mar 3rd Mar 9th
Low Risk
• No confirmed cases or no new
confirmed cases for 14
consecutive days
Medium Risk
• New confirmed cases, but
cumulative confirmed cases ≤ 50
• Cumulative cases > 50 but no
cluster outbreak in 14 days
High Risk
• Cumulative cases > 50 and have
cluster outbreak in 14 days
Data Source: Wechat Article
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 18National Efforts: Fighting the Coronavirus while Calling for Production
Resumption
China has rolled out China is meticulously D&B China’s Efforts:
perhaps the most expanding business • Medical Supplier Directory: D&B China
ambitious and agile operations with a provided 10,000+ overseas medical suppliers
disease containment precise approach that directory to public
effort in history prioritizes regions • Free Credit Check: D&B China also provided
a free credit check offering to the public to help
organizations and companies mitigate foreign
trade risks as our contribution to battling the
coronavirus in China
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 19Population is Returning to Work Locations
Baidu Migration scale index reflects the size of the population moving in, and can be compared between cities
Wuhan
2020 Migration scale index
(2020 CNY Holiday Travel Season)
Beijing
2019 Migration scale index
(2019 CNY Holiday Travel Season))
Shanghai
Data Source:
Shenzhen https://qianxi.baidu.com/?from=shoubai#city=0
Chinese Only
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 20Economic Activities in Major Cities Begin to Resume
Intracity Transport Intensity Index: The index reflects the ratio of the number of people who travel within the city to the
resident population of the city
Wuhan
2020 Intracity Transport Intensity Index
(2020 CNY Holiday Travel Season)
Beijing
2019 Intracity Transport Intensity Index
(2019 CNY Holiday Travel Season))
Shanghai
(Data as of Mar 13)
Data Source:
https://qianxi.baidu.com/?from=shoubai#city=0
Chinese Only
Shenzhen
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 21Dun & Bradstreet Survey Findings: Companies across China are Resuming
Operations
‘Impact Assessment of Pandemic to China Business’ section in the Business Intelligence Reports performs
ongoing research of companies’ recovery status
RESUMING OPERATIONS PERCENTAGE TREND FOR COMPARISON OF COMPANIES RESUMING OPERATIONS
COMPANIES ACROSS CHINA IN DIFFERENT REGIONS
100% 100%
4%
87% 11% 12% 14% 14%
82% 83% 85% 86%
75% 76% 78% 80% 28%
80%
72% 80% 38%
65%
60% 60%
96%
89% 88% 86% 86%
40% 40%
72%
24% 21% 24% 62%
18% 19%
20% 13% 13% 15% 15% 20%
11% 12%
0% 0%
14-Feb 19-Feb 24-Feb 29-Feb 5-Mar 10-Mar Southwest East China South China Northeast North China Northwest Central China
China China China
China Hubei Province
Resumed operation Temporarily closed
Source: Dun & Bradstreet Business Intelligence Reports for Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR; as of March 10
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 22COVID-19 IMPACT ON COMPANIES BY INDUSTRIES
Survey Findings: Sector Impact Transportation (air, sea, logistics, travel
agency, etc.) 93% 0% 7%
Retail wholesale 70% 1% 30%
Manufacturing and processing (chemicals,
metalwork, etc.) 64% 0.2% 36%
≈90% Enterprise services (computer, software,
advertising, finance, accounting, law,… 57% 0% 43%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
of major industries are resuming business as of March 13,
Proportion of companies having negative impact
however the impact has been felt widely Proportion of companies having positive impact
RESUMING OPERATION TREND OF COMPANIES BY
ANTICIPATED DECLINES POSITIVE RESULTS 100% INDUSTRIES
40% transportation most
widely affected: +20-30%
50%
3 companies predict 40%
in e-commerce, respiratory
19% Q1 2020 - manufacturing
and processing
materials, medical equipment,
and supermarkets 0%
for retail, wholesale, and Feb 14 Feb 21 Feb 28 Mar 6 Mar 10 (Tue)
37% Q1 2020 – retail and
wholesale
manufacturing Enterprise services (computer, software, advertising, finance, accounting, law, management,
engineering, etc.)
Manufacturing and processing (chemicals, metalwork, etc.)
17%
Retail wholesale
Q1 2020 – corporate
services Transportation (air, sea, logistics, travel agency, etc.)
Source: Dun & Bradstreet Business Intelligence Reports for Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR; as of March 10
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 23Boost to China’s Online Industries
The outbreak has speeded up digitization of
various industries in China. People are getting
used to applying social and digital in their daily
work and entertainment
According to latest social sentiment Online Work Online Gaming
research reports, people show a lot of
confidence in next phase development of
Online Working, Online Education,
Online Gaming and Online Video
Positive anticipation is also shown for the
future development of social networks as
there has been a significant social traffic
Online Education
increase during the quarantine period. Online Video
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 24Q&A and Closing Comments
Dun & Bradstreet Resources
READ OUR LATEST INSIGHTS
Contact Dun & Bradstreet to find out
Special Briefing Report: Global Business Risk Report: about our Supplier and Customer
Business Impact of the Q1 2020
Intelligence capabilities and how we can
Coronavirus
help you understand your potential risks.
Reach out to your Account Executive,
local office, or contact us online for
country-specific solutions.
We have also added a special section to
existing Mainland China and Hong Kong
SAR Dun & Bradstreet Business
Information Reports.
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 26Q A
DUN & BRADSTREET WEBCAST | CORONAVIRUS IMPACT | MARCH 2020 27CONTACT US DIRECTLY OR VISIT YOUR LOCAL DUN & BRADSTREET WEB SITE
www.linkedin.com/company/dun-&-bradstreet and @DunBradstreet
Brian Alster Markus Kuger Andrew Wu
General Manager Chief Economist General Manager
Third-Party Risk & Dun & Bradstreet Mainland China &
Compliance Solutions Hong Kong SAR
Dun & Bradstreet KugerM@dnb.com Dun & Bradstreet
linkedin.com/in/markus-kuger-
AlsterB@dnb.com a4111635 WuA@dnb.com
linkedin.com/in/brian-alster- www.dnb.co.uk linkedin.com/in/andrewgywu
6908284
www.dnbchina.com
www.dnb.comThank You!
謝謝
Dankjewel
merci
ありがとう
धन्यवाद
29You can also read
