TRACKING THE DRAMATIC PIVOT OF U.S. CONSUMER AND SHOPPER BEHAVIOR - COVID-19 and the Economy
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
COVID-19 and the Economy TRACKING THE DRAMATIC PIVOT OF U.S. CONSUMER AND SHOPPER BEHAVIOR April 3, 2020
Executive Summary
• F&B stock up continued as non-food stockpiling across health and home care showed signs of easing.
• Consumers are purchasing more fresh foods to offset shelf stable pantry items.
• Sales of beverage alcohol and tobacco are also now rising in large format channels.
• While pantry stocking trips are driving the strongest growth, all trip types ― fill-in, special purpose
and quick trips have increased substantially as shoppers work to get all of their needs met.
• E-commerce sales continue strong growth, but lost share of total omnichannel in the past few weeks
as shoppers relied on brick & mortar stores for panic stock-up.
• Self care is becoming even more mainstream during this pandemic, with leading self care categories
such as thermometers, sanitizing wipes, immunity products, disposable gloves, and hand sanitizers
boosting buyers by more than 100%.
• Increased focus on self care may become the “new normal” as we emerge from the pandemic.
• Financially vulnerable consumer segments, such as “downtrodden” and “start-ups,” are even
more concerned about COVID-19 and the potential health and economic impact than the
average consumer.
• This concern is driving intense focus on preparedness, including stock up on food, OTC medications
and immunity support, even as these consumers struggle to afford groceries.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
F&B, Nonedibles Spiked in MULO When Reported Cases Spread to Most States;
F&B Continued to Accelerate Slightly in Latest Week, While Nonedibles Slowed
Dollar % Change vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model with Fresh
% Change vs. Prior
80 F&B
Week
Total Store: -4.9%
70
F&B ex Fresh: -1.4%
60
Fresh: -3.4% Total Store
Nonedibles: -11.7%
50
Fresh
40
• March 25 – U.S. becomes new epicenter of COVID-19, Nonedibles
30 surpassing China and Italy in cases
6 month F&B growth benchmark (+2.2%)
• March 27 – U.S. passes CARES Act, injecting $2T into economy
20
Jan 2020 lapping double SNAP payments in Jan 2019 • March 31 – U.S. reports >165,000 cases of COVID-19
10 Feb 2020 lapping no SNAP payment in Feb 2019
0
-10
01-05-20 01-12-20 01-19-20 01-26-20 02-02-20 02-09-20 02-16-20 02-23-20 03-01-20 03-08-20 03-15-20 03-22-20
Source: IRI TSV Model Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total E-commerce
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
Convenience & Gas F&B Sales Slipped into Decline
in the Latest Week, While MULO Continued to Accelerate
Dollar % Change vs. YA // F&B // Total U.S. MULO vs. C&G // TSV Model
F&B C&G
F&B MULO
80
70
60
50 • March 23 – 9 states impose stay-at-home restrictions: CA,
OR, WA, LA, IL, OH, NY, MA, CT
40 • March 26 – 12 additional states have stay-at-home
restrictions: ID, CO, NM, WI, MI, IN, KY, WV, VT, RI, NJ, HI
30
6 month C&G F&B benchmark (+4.3%) • March 30 – 9 additional states have stay-at-home restrictions
20
6 month MULO F&B benchmark (+2.2%) for a total of 30 states: MT, AK, MN, NC, NH, VA, MD, KS, DE
Jan 2020 lapping double SNAP payments in Jan 2019
Feb 2020 lapping no SNAP payment in Feb 2019
10
0
-10
01-05-20 01-12-20 01-19-20 01-26-20 02-02-20 02-09-20 02-16-20 02-23-20 03-01-20 03-08-20 3/15/2020 3/22/2020
Source: IRI TSV Model Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total E-commerce
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
COVID-19 Impact on People and Policy Continues to Evolve,
Driving Massive Shifts in Purchase and Shopping Behavior
COVID-19 cases DOUBLE every 3 DAYS in the U.S.
People Policy
~900,000 as of
April 1
The U.S.
Passed $2.2T CARES
Stimulus Act
Global COVID-19 Cases Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security
>200,000
# of States / Directives
30 13 7
with nearly 5,000 deaths,
more than mainland China
U.S. COVID-19 Cases stay at home partial restrictions no directives
~10MM People CDC Urges Residents of
to Refrain from Non-
Filed for Unemployment NY CT Essential Domestic
NJ Travel thru Mid-April
because of COVID-19, as of April 2
Source: *https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus; **https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
In This Issue of IRI’s COVID-19 Report
PURCHASE & SELF- CONSUMER WHAT TO
SHOPPING CARE ATTITUDES EXPECT
BEHAVIOR
To create this report, IRI leveraged data and analytics from various
proprietary retail, market, consumer and shopper assets, including:
• IRI Point of Sale Data, including Fresh data
• IRI E-Market Insights®
• Shopper Basket Analysis from IRI Consumer Network™ Panel
• IRI Surveys Analyzed by: IRI Proprietary Self Care Segmentation
and IRI EconoLink® Segmentation
Visit IRI’s COVID-19 Insights Portal and
COVID-19 Dashboard for more reports and updates.
IRI conducts weekly consumer surveys among primary grocery
shoppers aged 18+, representative of the U.S. population.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
Non-Foods Stock-Up Eases After Initial Spike During the Week of March 8,
But Consumers Are Still Buying More than They Did Pre-COVID-19
Dollar % Change vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model
110
Panic
100 After spiking mid-March, growth rates decelerated for
Buying FROZEN
health, home and beauty in the latest week, suggesting
90 Tipping
some slowing of non-foods stock-up; frozen drove food GENERAL FOOD
Point
80 gains as both beverage alcohol and tobacco surged. HOME CARE
70 REFRIG
60 BEVERAGE ALCOHOL
HEALTH
50
BEV
40 GENERAL MERCH
30
20
BEAUTY
10
TOBACCO
0
-10
-20
01-05-20 01-12-20 01-19-20 01-26-20 02-02-20 02-09-20 02-16-20 02-23-20 03-01-20 3/8/2020 3/15/2020 3/22/2020
Source: IRI TSV Model Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total E-commerce
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8
Perishables Like Meat Drove Growth Similar to
Center-Store / Frozen as Meals Turned to At-Home
Dollar % Change vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model with Fresh
As the data in GENERAL FOOD 16.0%
87.0%
23%
the chart 94.0%
FRESH & PROCESSED MEAT 15.0%
confirms, 15% 9%
94.0%
16.0%
of survey FROZEN
8%
49.0%
respondents BEVERAGES
8%
12.0%
report they’re DAIRY 11.0%
60.0%
7%
purchasing FRESH PRODUCE 6.0%
30.0%
6%
more fresh 73.0%
REFRIGERATED 13.0%
foods; up 7 6%
57.0%
LIQUOR
percentage 4%
12.0%
37.0%
points from a FRESH & PACKAGE BAKERY
3%
6.0%
week prior. *FRESH DELI
1.0%
2.0%
2%
21.0%
FRESH SEAFOOD 7.0%
1%
*Fresh Deli includes random weight lunch meat, $ Sales % Chg YTD 2020 Share of Total Store
deli cheese and deli prepared foods only. WE 3-22-20 Sales WE 3-22-20
Source: IRI Multi Outlet, Total Store Including Random-Weight; IRI Survey fielded 3/13-3/15 and 3/20-3/22, 2020, among NCP representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
U.S. E-commerce Growth Rates Accelerated Significantly in Past Weeks
Dollar % Change vs. YA, Total E-commerce
95% Edible
75% Total Store
67% Non Edible
44% 43% 38% 39%
36% 38% 34% 39%
37%
33% 33% 33% 37% 34% 33% 33% 38%
31%
28% 29% 31% 29% 25% 28% 32%
25%
26% 22% 24%
21%
01-05-20 01-12-20 01-19-20 01-26-20 02-02-20 02-09-20 02-16-20 02-23-20 03-01-20 03-08-20 03-15-20
Source: IRI eMarket Insights Model, Total Store is an aggregate of the 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories, Baseline is based on L26 Weeks Ending 3/22/2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10While E-commerce Sales Have Grown Over the Past Few Weeks,
E-commerce’s Share of Omni-Channel Sales is Slightly Decreasing
Total E-commerce Share of Omni-Channel
Panic Buying in
Brick & Mortar
31.5 31.3
30.5 29.9 30.3
29.3 29.6
28.3 28.7
27.4
Non
25.4
Edible
17.2 17.5 16.8 17.3
16.2 16.2 16.7
16.0 15.7 15.9
14.1 Total
Store
8.8 8.6 8.5 9.0 8.7 8.8 8.6
8.2 7.9 8.2
7.3 Edible
01-05-20 01-12-20 01-19-20 01-26-20 02-02-20 02-09-20 02-16-20 02-23-20 03-01-20 03-08-20 03-15-20
Source: IRI eMarket Insights, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories, Omni-Channel = Total U.S. Multi Outlet + Total E-commerce
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11E-commerce: General Food, Home Care, General
Merchandise Have the Strongest Growth
Dollar % Change vs. YA, Total E-commerce
120.0%
General Food
100.0%
Home Care General
Merch
80.0%
Beverages
60.0%
Health
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
01-05-20 01-12-20 01-19-20 01-26-20 02-02-20 02-09-20 02-16-20 02-23-20 03-01-20 03-08-20 03-15-20
Beverages Department General Food Department General Merchandise Department
Health Department Home Care Department
Source: IRI eMarket Insights Model, Departments are aggregates of the 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories based on IRIs Syndicated Departments
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12Edible Continues to Have a Much Higher Proportion of Pick-Up and Delivery
Share of E-commerce Dollar Sales by Fulfillment Type
Delivery 6%
2% 6% 2% 5% 2% 6% 2% 5% 2% 5% 2% 6% 2% 6% 2% 6% 2% 7% 8%
3%
Pickup
Nonedible
Home
91% 92% 93% 93% 93% 92% 92% 93% 92% 91% 89%
Shipment
1/5/2020 1/12/2020 1/19/2020 1/26/2020 2/2/2020 2/9/2020 2/16/2020 2/23/2020 3/1/2020 3/8/2020 3/15/2020
Delivery 22% 19% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 19% 19%
39% 38% 40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 43%
Pickup 39%
Edible
Home 42% 45% 43% 43%
39% 40% 41% 42% 42% 40% 38%
Shipment
1/5/2020 1/12/2020 1/19/2020 1/26/2020 2/2/2020 2/9/2020 2/16/2020 2/23/2020 3/1/2020 3/8/2020 3/15/2020
Source: IRI eMarket Insights, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories and retailers where fulfillment can be determined.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13Consumers are Making Both More Trips and Larger Baskets in Recent Weeks
Total U.S. All Outlets Consumer Purchasing Dynamics
Trips per Household Household Buyers
Dollar Sales % chg. vs. YA Actuals % chg. vs. YA Actuals
% Change vs. YA Actuals
4.3 3/1 1% 115.1M
3/1 4%
3/8 10% 4.6 3/8 2% 115.6M
3/1 3% $16.4 B
3/15 39% 5.9 3/15 4% 117.4M
3/22 39% 5.9 3/22 2% 114.5M
Week ending
3/8 13% $17.9 B
Units per Trip Price per Unit
% chg. vs. YA Actuals % chg. vs. YA Actuals
3/15 64% $25.2 B
3/1 -3% 9.5 3/1 1% $3.48
3/8 -1% 9.7 3/8 2% $3.45
3/22 61% $24.3 B
3/15 14% 10.7 3/15 0% $3.42
3/22 12% 10.4 3/22 1% $3.47
Source: IRI Consumer Network™ Panel 4 weeks ending March 22, 2020. All Outlets.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14Pantry Stocking Trips Grew Most, but Smaller Trips
Are Also Growing Significantly vs. Last Year
TRIP COUNT BY TYPE (M) DOLLAR SALES ($B) BY TRIP TYPE
688 25.2
670 24.3
4.9
(19%) 4.8
(20%)
533
493 354 Spend in
346 17.9 4.2
(51%) 4.3 smaller trips
(52%) (17%)
16.4 (18%) grew 50%
3.8
(21%) vs. YA
283 3.4
Quick Trip 4.9
262 (53%) (21%)
Quick Trip 3.2 (19%) 4.8
(53%) (20%)
3.0 (18%)
Smaller Special Purpose
110 107 (18%)
(16%) trips grew
(16%) 3.8
38% vs. YA 3.4
88 Fill In (21%)
82 (21%)
Special Purpose (16%) 108 Spend in
(17%) 107 11.2
(16%) 10.4 Pantry
84 (16%) (45%)
77 (43%) Stocking trips
Fill In (16%) Pantry 6.5 7.1 grew +78
(16%) Pantry Stocking (40%)
116 111 Stocking (40%) vs. YA
72 79 (17%) trips grew
Pantry Stocking (17%)
(15%) (15%) +65 vs. YA
W/e 1 W/e 8 W/e 15 W/e 22 W/e 1 W/e 8 W/e 15 W/e 22
Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020
Source: IRI Consumer Network™ Panel 4 weeks ending March 22, 2020. All Outlets.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15Consumers Increased Nonedible Purchases Initially,
Followed by More Edible Spend in Recent Weeks
BUYERS (M HH’S) TRIPS PER BUYER DOLLARS PER TRIP UNITS PER TRIP
103 106 108 104 4.0 3.8 $21.77 $21.57 $21.68 $21.19 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6
2.9 3.2
Nonedible
W/e 1 W/e 8 W/e 15 W/e 22 W/e 1 W/e 8 W/e 15 W/e 22 W/e 1 W/e 8 W/e 15 W/e 22 W/e 1 W/e 8 W/e 15 W/e 22
Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020
0.4% 3.6% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 10.3% 38.4% 34.2% 0.7% 3.9% 5.3% 2.8% 0.7% 2.5% 5.4% 0.5%
% Change vs. YA
112 113 115 112 4.7 4.8 $29.78 $29.81 10.4 10.2
$26.18 $26.48 9.1 9.4
3.4 3.6
Edible
W/e 1 W/e 8 W/e 15 W/e 22 W/e 1 W/e 8 W/e 15 W/e 22 W/e 1 W/e 8 W/e 15 W/e 22 W/e 1 W/e 8 W/e 15 W/e 22
Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020 Mar 2020
% Change vs. YA 1.6% 2.0% 5.1% 2.9% 4.6% 8.2% 40.3% 42.4% -2.5% -0.4% 15.2% 17.9% -3.6% -1.1% 14.5% 14.0%
Source: IRI Consumer Network™ Panel 4 weeks ending March 22, 2020. All Outlets.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16Packaged Food & Frozen Accounted for a Greater Share of Baskets Post COVID
Average Basket | Week Ending March 22, 2020 Paper Products General Merchandise Baby Food + Care
Home Care Cosmetics Dairy
Nonedible Edible OTC Healthcare Beverage Frozen Foods
Personal Care Packaged Food Fresh Foods
Pet Food + Care Alcohol
1.0
(3%)
1.3
(4%) 2.4 1.9 1.5 2.1 3.0 7.1 2.1 0.5 2.3 2.4 2.9
2019 0.8 (8%) (6%) (5%) (7%) (10%) (23%) (7%) (2%) (8%) (8%) (9%) 31.1
(3%)
+15%
1.1 1.6 2.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 0.6 3.2 9.3 2.5 0.5 2.7 3.3 3.4
2020 (3%) (5%) (8%) (5%) (4%) (5%) (2%) (9%) (26%) (7%) (1%) (7%) (9%) (9%) 35.7
Only Personal Care, Packaged Food
Cosmetics and General accounted for greatest
Merchandise declined vs. YA portion of the growth
in average basket sales in average basket size
Source: IRI Consumer Network™ Panel All Outlets data Week Ending 22 Mar 2020 vs. year ago
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17Edible: Packaged Food, Beverages, Frozen Food Grew Buyers, Trips and Baskets
Latest Week Ending March 22, 2020
2019 2020
Household Buyers (M) Basket Size ($)
100 105 15.6
91 13.1 12.8
82 85
11.5
66 8.9
8.4
Frozen Foods Packaged Food Beverage Frozen Foods Packaged Food Beverage
Trips per Buyer Avg. Units per Trip
3.8 6.6
5.4
2.6 2.6
2.0 2.0 3.2 3.4 3.1
3.0
1.5
Frozen Foods Packaged Food Beverage Frozen Foods Packaged Food Beverage
Source: IRI Consumer Network™ Panel All Outlets Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 vs. Year Ago
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18Nonedible: Paper Products and Home Care Grew Buyers and Trips,
While OTC Healthcare Drove Sizable Growth in Buyers, Trips and Baskets
Latest Week Ending March 22, 2020
2019 2020
Household Buyers (M) Basket Size ($)
60 18.5
57 16.3
45 47 47
34 9.4 9.6 9.3 9.3
Paper Products Home Care OTC Healthcare Paper Products Home Care OTC Healthcare
Trips per Buyer Avg. Units per Trip
1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
1.4 1.5 1.6
1.2
Paper Products Home Care OTC Healthcare Paper Products Home Care OTC Healthcare
Source: IRI Consumer Network™ Panel All Outlets Data Week Ending March 22, 2020 vs. Year Ago
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19Spending During, After Recession Shows Consumers Gravitate to Comfort and
Personal Indulgence; Likely to Repeat in COVID-19-Induced Recession and After
Categories Performance During and Post-Recession | Volume Sales Impact (Percentage Points) F&B
Non F&B
8
Laundry Detergent
Resurgence
Hair Coloring
6 Carbonated Beverages Fresh Eggs
– (Pre-Recession Growth Rate 2006-2007)
(Post-Recession Growth Rate 2010-2011)
Performance Post Recession
Sanitary Napkins/Tampons Cookies
4 Shampoo
Sports Drinks Dog Food
Chocolate Candy Deodorant Blades Spices/Seasonings
Toilet Tissue
2 Hand & Body Lotion Vegetables - SS
Toothpaste Lunch Meats
Crackers Dish Detergent Ice Cream/Sherbet
Air Fresheners Skin Care Breakfast Meats
Salty Snacks Vitamins
Cigarettes Soap
0 Paper Towels Frozen Entrees Coffee Yogurt
Household Cleaner Food & Trash Bags Milk Natural Cheese
Baby Formula Beer/Cider
Internal Analgesics Shortening & Oil
Cold Cereal
-2 Facial Tissue Fresh Bread & Rolls
Canned/Bottled Fruit Cups & Plates
Soup
Diapers
-4
First Aid Accessories
Decline
-6 Batteries
Snack Bars/Granola Bars
-8
-15.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Weak Strong
Performance During Recession
(Recession CAGR 2007-2009) – (Pre-Recession Growth Rate 2006-2007)
Source: IRI POS archived data FDMx (Food, Drug, Mass excluding Walmart). CY 2006-2011. IRI Consulting analysis.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21
IRI’s Self Care Segmentation is Based on
Core Motivators Around Health Management
Key Drivers of Self Care Segmentation
SELF-IMAGE AGING
Social media has put a spotlight on With the oldest Millennials approaching 40,
showing up at your best – and self and the youngest Baby Boomers now in their
care helps many people achieve that. late 50’s, aging is a widespread motivator.
CONVENIENCE ILLNESS PREVENTION
Access to OTC products, health care From reducing healthcare costs, to
information and other products, services and ensuring our ability to work and care for
tools makes self care a convenient option for others, to enhancing longevity, illness
those seeking wellness. Retailers are also prevention provides myriad benefits that
leading the way in offering one-stop wellness. go beyond feeling good.
LOWER HEALTHCARE COSTS STRESS REDUCTION
With health care costs increasing, many are As the detrimental effects of stress
taking extra steps to prevent and/or lessen are better and more widely
the severity of illness through self care. understood, self care offers useful
tools and approaches to mitigate it.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22IRI’s Eight Self Care Segments Span a Range of
Proactive and Reactive Attitudes and Behaviors
Proactive Naturalists 12% Awakened & Dedicated 11% Healthy Passives 20% Advice Seekers 15%
PROACTIVE REACTIVE
Active Health Managers 8% Preventative Moderates 13% Unconcerned Realists 9% Doctor, Doctor! 12%
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23Proactive Consumers Prepared for the Spread of the Virus in
February, While Reactives Initially Changed Little in Buying Habits
PROACTIVE REACTIVE
Self Care Consumers Self Care Consumers
Younger consumers, who are all about Older consumers with health
prevention and taking their health and conditions and are taking Rx
wellness into their own hands, will turn regularly, struggle to cope with
to OTC as a first line of defense. their current medical status and
seek guidance and reassurance
Preventative Products Treatment Products
from medical professionals. They
• Hand Sanitizer • Pediatric Internal
defer to doctors and consult
• Spray and Bottled Analgesics
Disinfectants • Sleep Aid Tablets with a pharmacist.
• Disposable Gloves • Antacid Liquids /
Preventative Products
• Cleaning Wipes / Powders
Clothes • Personal • Canned Fruit Juice
• Moist Towelettes Thermometers • Bottled Vegetable Juice
• Immunity-Related • Sore Throat • 1 and 2 Letter Vitamins
Vitamins / Minerals Liquids
• Bottled Water Treatment Products
• Juice and Energy • Sleep Aid Tablets
Drinks
Source: IRI Study “Harnessing the Power of Self Care to Drive Sustainable Growth 4 Weeks Ending February 23, 2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 24Self Care Behavior is Even More
Mainstream During the COVID-19 Pandemic
• Health and Home continue to benefit significantly across the store,
as consumers take “self care” to new levels to protect themselves
and their family.
• Preventive healthcare products, like Immunity, are trending
higher than symptomatic products, as consumers look first to prevent
Illness. Cleaning Products and Hand Sanitizers / Soap also
important to consumer self care practices.
• Given the global nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a
blurring of lines between Self Care segments. This virus can
affect anyone, and all consumers are reacting accordingly to protect
their family.
• Proactive Self Care Consumers began quickly reacting to “stock-
up” early when news reached the public in February. While Reactive
Self Care Consumers, had no early shifts in buying behavior,
waiting until the situation became a pandemic and are now treating
more symptomatically.
• For the most part, an influx of “new” buyers is driving growth
across Self Care. This is an opportunity for manufacturers to win
consumers long-term.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 25Even Prior to COVID-19…
Consumers Report Taking Greater Control of Their Health by
Practicing Good Hygiene, Regularly Disinfecting their Homes
How do YOU practice Self Care?
72% 71%
66%
60%
57% 56% 54%
50% 49%
46%
Stay hydrated Practice good Practice good Get at least 7-8 Take vitamins Regularly Eat healthy Take Rx Wash/change Use OTC
personal oral hygiene hours of sleep clean/disinfect foods directed by your bed linens medications
hygiene each night your home doctor at least once a
week
Q2. Which of the following do you, personally, consider ways to practice self care?
We want to know what you believe is self care, not what your friends, family or society overall may think is self care.
Source: IRI 2019 Self Care Study
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 26Buyer Increases Accelerating Purchasing % Change % Change
in Buyers in Spend
Across Many Self Care Categories; Personal Thermometers 160.5 22.4
Hand Sanitizers Equally Benefiting from Cleaning Cloths / Wipes 136.2 36.9
Immunity Products 124.9 34.2
New Buyer and Spend Growth Disposable Gloves 109.1 42.0
Hand Sanitizers 107.3 103.3
Liquid Hand Soap 97.3 29.3
Bleach 79.7 14.3
Facial Tissue 58.3 26.4
First Aid Antiseptics 52.9 28.4
Household Cleaners 41.3 39.9
Internal Analgesics 40.4 27.7
Paper Towels 39.6 31.3
Toilet Tissue 32.7 45.6
Laundry Detergent 30.4 19.0
Cold / Cough / Allergy 29.3 27.1
Vitamins 27.4 14.9
Sports / Energy Drinks 23.6 10.6
Toothpaste 22.7 8.8
Refrigerated Orange Juice 20.5 8.4
Water 14.0 33.9
Source: IRI National Consumer Network; Total All Outlets * % Change in Buying Rate
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 27Cleaning Products and Household
Essentials Are Being Stockpiled…
Dollar Sales % Change vs. Year Ago
Week Ending March 22, 2020
224%
198%
129% 134%
121%
115%
Clean. Wipes/Cloths
98%
Disposable Gloves
92%
Liquid Hand Soap
87%
Clean. Solutions
Paper Towels
Facial Tissue
Laundry Det.
Toilet Paper
48%
Bleach
Total
Store
Source: IRI Total U.S. - Multi Outlet + Convenience
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 28…While Consumers Fill Their Medicine Cabinets to Prepare for the Virus
Dollar Sales % Change vs. Year Ago | Week Ending March 22, 2020
297%
199%
184%
128%
87% 77%
48% 55%
30%
Total Store Personal Hand First Aid Immunity Internal Vitamins Toothpaste Gastrointestinal
Thermometers Sanitizers Antiseptics Products* Analgesics Products
Source: IRI Total U.S. - Multi Outlet + Convenience * Immunity Products IRI Total U.S. – MULO Only
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 29Conversations Have Been Positive, With People Discussing
Ways to Keep Up Self Care During Social Distancing
Top Topics Week Ending March 23, 2020
Source: IRI Social Pulse powered by Infegy
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31
EconoLink Provides View of Americans’ Response to COVID-19 Through a
Human Economic Lens That Goes Beyond Income; Not All Respond Alike
SAVVY SHOPPERS DOWNTRODDEN
Their financial situations are improving vs. YAG, but Their financial situations are markedly worse vs. YAG,
they still look for value – although that doesn’t always and their go-to response is depravation; they try to cut
mean the lowest price. They love to find coupons and back on everything. Purchases highly influenced by
good deals on groceries. price, brand, and/or prior experience/trust.
Savvy Down-
SKEWS: Shoppers trodden SKEWS: Older Millennials/Younger Boomers | Blue
Younger Baby Boomers, Retirees | Mean HHI Collar | Hispanic | Lower Income
8% 9%
$75,600
CAREFREE Carefree
Their financial situations are in a stable place; no 18% CAUTIOUS & WORRIED
real financial concerns. They’re willing to splurge on Their financial situations are markedly worse vs.
premium products, and brand preference is a greater YAG, and they do not hold out a lot of hope for things
Cautious &
driver than price for their buying decisions. to get better.
Worried
SKEWS: Older Boomers & Retirees | Male | Live 32% SKEWS:
Alone | Upper Income Baby Boomers | Live Alone
Optimistics
OPTIMISTICS 21% START-UPS
Their financial situations are better vs. YAG, and they Their financial situations are largely the same as
are optimistic about their financial future. Price is on Start-Ups YAG, but they’re still struggling. They, too, are
their radar, but so are product experiences and brand 12% focused on cutting back, but with positive
trust. expectations for future improvement in their financial
situations.
SKEWS: Gen Z, Millennials and Gen X | 4+ Member
HHs | African American | Mean HHI $72,000 SKEWS: Gen Z/Millennials | African American,
Asian | Blue Collar | Lower Income
IRI EconoLink, IRI Survey fielded 3/20-3/22, 2020, among National Consumer IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 32More Than Four in 10 Americans Are Cautious & Worried or
Downtrodden, a Signal that Economic Downturn is Taking its Toll
9% 9% Downtrodden
23%
32% Cautious & Worried
10%
13% 12% Start-Ups
8% Savvy Shoppers
30% 21% Optimistics
15% 18%
Carefree
2019 2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 33More Than Half of Americans Are Extremely Concerned About COVID-19,
Including the Vast Majority of Downtrodden and Start-Ups Segments
Nearly Three-Quarters of People in These Segments Are More
Concerned About COVID-19 Than They Were a Week Ago
% EXTREMELY CONCERNED COVID-19 Economy 81%
Segment as % of respondents
67%
63%
58%
49% 51%
47% 48%
44%
41%
37%
28% 29% 30%
Wave 2 Total Carefree Optimistics Savvy Shoppers Cautious and Start Ups Downtrodden
Respondents Worried
35% 22% 48% 28% 28% 45% 43%
% WITH CHILDREN LIVING AT HOME
IRI EconoLink, IRI Survey fielded 3/20-3/22, 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 34The Growing Concern About COVID-19 Among Start-Ups and Downtrodden is
Well-Founded and Rooted in Harsh Economic and Health-Related Realities
My Household's Income is at Risk I’m Working Fewer Hours My Household Includes
Because of Restrictions Created Because of the People Who Might Be Especially
to Curb the Coronavirus Coronavirus Susceptible to the Coronavirus
80%
56% 52%
47%
45%
35% 37%
28%
21%
Wave 2 Total Start-Ups Downtrodden Wave 2 Total Start-Ups Downtrodden Wave 2 Total Start-Ups Downtrodden
Respondents Respondents Respondents
IRI EconoLink, IRI Survey fielded 3/20-3/22, 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 35Start-Ups and Downtrodden are Notably More Likely to be
Facing the Very Real Fear of Not Being Able to Afford Groceries
% Agreeing That My Household is Having
Difficulty Affording Needed Groceries 68%
36%
31%
28%
22%
16%
11%
Wave 2 Total Carefree Savvy Optimistics Cautious and Start Ups Downtrodden
Respondents Shoppers Worried
IRI EconoLink, IRI Survey fielded 3/20-3/22, 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 36Preparedness is a Priority for Start-Ups and Downtrodden;
Both Use Stocking Up to Achieve Maximum Readiness
Recent Changes in Shopping Choices Due to Coronavirus
63%
More stock-up trips 67%
77%
26%
Buying more sanitizing products 42%
43%
19%
Stocked up on OTC medications 31%
30%
15%
Buying immune boosting products 28%
19%
15%
Buying more fresh foods 18%
25%
13%
Ordering online more 23%
23%
Wave 2 Total Respondents Start-Ups Downtrodden
IRI EconoLink, IRI Survey fielded 3/20-3/22, 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 37Expectations for Both Length of the COVID-19 Crisis, as Well as the Time Frame
Needed for Economic Recovery, Are Longest for Cautious & Worried, Downtrodden
Start-Ups Are Notably More Optimistic
% Expecting Health Crisis to Last 4+ Months Before Health Concerns Return to Normal
48%
38%
32% 29%
Wave 2 Total Respondents Start-Ups Cautious & Worried Downtrodden
% Expecting Economic Impact to Last More Than 12 Months Before the Economy Recovers
52% 56%
37%
29%
Wave 2 Total Respondents Start-Ups Cautious & Worried Downtrodden
IRI EconoLink, IRI Survey fielded 3/20-3/22, 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 38What to Expect
Likely Shifts Over the Next Three to Four Weeks
• F&B growth will begin to temper as shoppers move from stock- • MULO channel demand growth for beverage
up to everyday meal preparation, with purchase behavior alcohol and tobacco has likely not yet peaked, and
varying across consumer segments. will continue to see an acceleration for at least the
next few weeks.
More than three-quarters of consumers already have two
weeks of groceries or more on hand.* • Comfort categories, such as salty snacks, ice
cream, carbonated beverages and cookies,
Lower income and “downtrodden” households will pull back
generally see an uptick during recessionary
on spending, looking for value brands and deals and
periods, and are likely to see sustained growth,
restricting non-essentials, at least until stimulus payments
even after pantry stocking eases.
are received in roughly three weeks.
• Particularly in self care categories, there is an
Middle and upper income consumers will begin looking for
opportunity for manufacturers to win consumers
prepared foods and shortcuts that were not a focus during
over new category buyers for the long-term.
the pantry stocking phase, but may re-emerge as a priority,
as the strain of “from scratch” meal preparation kicks in. • As out of stocks take shape across many retailers
on essential categories, and consumers experience
• Nonedible growth rates, including home, health and beauty, will
more shelter-in-place directives, we’ll see
continue to gradually decelerate as most consumers are now
continuing shifts to online purchases. This behavior
well-stocked, although hard to find items, such as toilet paper
is likely to extend beyond the COVID-19 episode.
and hand sanitizer, will see a resurgence once back in stock.
*Source: IRI Survey fielded 3/13-3/15 and 3/20-3/22, 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers; Base W-2: 1292, Base W-1: 963
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 39IRI Global Headquarters
CONTACT US 150 North Clinton Street
Chicago, IL 60661-1416
FOR MORE IRI@IRIworldwide.com
+1 312.726.1221
INFORMATION Follow IRI on Twitter: @IRIworldwide
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI).
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential
Confidential and
and Proprietary.
Proprietary. 40 40You can also read
