COVID-19 Situational Awareness Report - Dentsu Data Labs
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COVID-19 Situational Awareness Report As on the week ending June 12th, 2020
COVID-19: New Normal Introduction In Canada, there have been sixteen weeks of social distancing that brought in impressive progress in the fight against COVID-19. Stage 2 of the re-opening is ere with gradually reopening businesses, services, and public spaces. Merchants are glad to reopen, while customers are glad to shop and dine again. The COVID—19 sparks less and less mentions on social, resulting in the downwards trends of topics on anxiety and solidarity. Additionally, there are other topics to dispute online and offline. Black Lives Matter demonstrations took off at the end of the month of May, becoming one of the most discussed topics on social media among with the COVID- 19 pandemic. As COVID-19 diagnoses are climbing in the USA it’s contributing to the “anxious” sentiment among the Canadians. Nevertheless, Canadians eagerly support the movement. How to Read The Report: Contents Conclusions: Observe Orient Decide Situational Awareness this week … 3 Highlight: Social Contagion – Overall … 5 Social Contagion – Anxiety & Solidarity … 6 Social Contagion – Mapping … 7 Social Contagion – Major Cities … 8 Realtime Consumer Confidence Index ... 9 In Their Words – Social Media … 10 Social Media: Automobile & Transportation … 12 Social Audience : Auto Intenders … 13 This Week in Media – Consumption Trends … 14 Current Messaging Guide … 22 Worksheets … 23
Situational Awareness During New Normal Tracking Canadians Through The Pandemic Every week, we’ll be tracking the ongoing changes in consumer behaviour in order to map Canada on to the five stages of the social response. Our global team has created the framework based on the following: • The learnings from other markets that are a few weeks ahead of us in the pandemic (e.g. Europe and China). • The five stages of grief, as a template to track human behaviour. Observe Canada is here Consumer behavior by stage • Over the past month, we have noticed Canadians to be slowly moving into recovery, as some provinces New Normal started to phase the opening of the economy. • Decline in engagement • More Canadians are thinking about what can be done after the pandemic is over. • Call for normalcy • Consumer Confidence has been slowly increasing and • Starting to make overall engagement with COVID-19 is on the decline. consumer demands Orient Recovery • Even though it looks like we’re moving closer to the • Rising consumer confidence recovery stage, consumer anxiety hasn’t necessarily drastically declined over the past week. • Rising markets • Some Canadians are anxious to re-open the economy, • Calls for lifting restrictions but they are being criticized by others that it’s too early. • This indicates that we’re getting closer to moving to Post-Corona recovery, but we’re not quite there. • Rising discretionary spending, or restructuring of finances • As we slowly move into recovery and the post- • Past-tense discussion of the crisis COVID19 life, consider planning for re-entry. • Evaluation & Accountability • Businesses must cater and diversify their planning to accommodate their different audiences. To learn more about re-entry scenario planning for your business, please contact Damien.Hilgendorf@dentsuaegis.com.
Social Contagion – Overall Summary of Trends Population engaged with COVID-19 (Per 100k Canadians) 40000 120000 35000 The WHO declared 100000 COVID-19 a pandemic 30000 Canadians start to self-isolate 80000 25000 20000 60000 15000 9222 40000 13298 Discussions drop 10000 over weekends Lowest drop in engagement 20000 5000 since the WHO announcement 6802 0 0 Feb 22-2020 Apr-01-2020 Apr-04-2020 Apr-07-2020 Apr-10-2020 Apr-13-2020 Apr-16-2020 Apr-19-2020 Apr-22-2020 Apr-25-2020 Apr-28-2020 May-01-2020 May-04-2020 Feb-1-2020 Feb-4-2020 Feb-7-2020 Feb-10-2020 Feb-13-2020 Feb-16-2020 Feb-19-2020 Feb-25-2020 Feb-28-2020 5/7/2020 5/10/2020 5/13/2020 5/16/2020 5/19/2020 5/22/2020 5/25/2020 5/28/2020 5/31/2020 6/3/2020 6/6/2020 6/9/2020 Mar-2-2020 Mar-5-2020 Mar-8-2020 Jan-08-2020 Jan-11-2020 Jan-14-2020 Jan-17-2020 Jan-20-2020 Jan-23-2020 Jan-26-2020 Jan-29-2020 Mar-11-2020 Mar-14-2020 Mar-17-2020 Mar-20-2020 Mar-23-2020 Mar-26-2020 Mar-29-2020 COVID19 Overall Anxiety & COVID19 Solidarity & COVID19 Anxiety & COVID19 Solidarity & COVID19 **Cases in Canada COVID-19 Engagement Number of Cases +1,312 vs. Same Day Last Week* +4,281 vs. Same Day Last Week* Observe • Recently, engagement with the topic of COVID-19 has steadily continued to plateau. • We still see an ongoing pattern during weekends, where engagement drops. • Engagement with COVID-19 has reached its lowest point since the WHO announcement around June 7 th. Rolling Average. Engagement – COVID-19 Orient 20,000 120000 • The highest point of 100000 15,000 engagement with the topic of 80000 COVID-19 on March 12 10,000 60000 mirrors the lowest point of 40000 consumer confidence. 5,000 • However, as we see 20000 engagement decline and - 0 *Dates mirror the chart above. solidarity and anxiety remain stable; consumer confidence started to uplift. * June 2nd - June 9th, 2020 **Source of Case #: CSSE at Johns Hopkins University Note: Beyond appending daily data, historical may refresh as well, this is due to the training process of our AI’s which become more accurate over time
Social Contagion – Anxiety & Solidarity Anxiousness & Morale around COVID-19 (Per 100k Canadians) 7000 5894 6000 5000 Over the weekend, consumer solidarity drops. 4000 Impact of 3000 unrest in US and Canada 2000 1398 947 1000 172 0 May-01-2020 May-04-2020 5/10/2020 5/13/2020 5/16/2020 5/19/2020 5/22/2020 5/25/2020 5/28/2020 5/31/2020 Apr-01-2020 Apr-04-2020 Apr-07-2020 Apr-10-2020 Apr-13-2020 Apr-16-2020 Apr-19-2020 Apr-22-2020 Apr-25-2020 Apr-28-2020 Feb-1-2020 Feb-4-2020 Feb-7-2020 Mar-2-2020 Mar-5-2020 Mar-8-2020 Jan-14-2020 Jan-17-2020 Jan-20-2020 Jan-23-2020 Jan-26-2020 Jan-29-2020 Feb-10-2020 Feb-13-2020 Feb-16-2020 Feb-19-2020 Feb 22-2020 Feb-25-2020 Feb-28-2020 Mar-11-2020 Mar-14-2020 Mar-17-2020 Mar-20-2020 Mar-23-2020 Mar-26-2020 Mar-29-2020 5/7/2020 6/3/2020 6/6/2020 6/9/2020 Anxiety & COVID19 Solidarity & COVID19 Public Spirit Index (Ratio of Solidarity/Anxiety) +504 +18 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Morale Anxiety vs. Same Day vs. Same Day 6.15 7.42 10.64 4.36 4.11 7.83 8.13 Last Week* Last Week* Observe • While both morale and anxiety are trending Rolling Average. downwards, anxiety has bottomed out. Anxiety & Solidarity • Last weeks, possibly due to unrest in the US, 3,000 120000 morale and anxiety have been fluctuating 2,500 100000 more than in recent weeks. 2,000 80000 Orient • With reopening of Canada imminent, brands need to ensure that they are ready for it. 1,500 60000 • COVID-19 has changed the Canada we knew. 1,000 40000 • January 2020 may as well have been a 500 20000 decade ago for how much the rest of 2020 - 0 will differ from it. *Dates mirror the chart above. • So will products, messaging, and plans made in January 2020 work anymore? * June 2nd - June 9th, 2020 Note: Beyond appending daily data, historical may refresh as well, this is due to the training process of our AI’s which become more accurate over time
Social Contagion - Geographies Engagement Change vs. Overall Area (Per 100K) Last Week* Ontario 10,563 +2,209 British Columbia 10,160 +1,836 PEI 9,143 +3,214 Quebec 8,495 +494 New Brunswick 8,178 -1,726 B.C. 10,160 QC Alberta 7,855 +1,194 ON 8,495 Nova Scotia 7,520 +970 10,563 Manitoba 6,513 +908 Nfld and Labrador 6,202 -2,941 Saskatchewan 5,340 -777 Anxiousness Engagement Change vs. Area (Per 100K) Last Week * ON Ontario 227 +25 227 Regions not included have a very low engagement count (under our quality thresholds of under 30 people). Morale/Solidarity Engagement Change vs. Area (Per 100K) Last Week British Columbia 2,083 +472 Ontario 1,850 +209 Alberta 1,051 -186 Quebec 681 -361 B.C. 2,083 QC 681 ON 1,850 * June 2nd - June 9th, 2020 - highest national engagement. Note: Beyond appending daily data, historical may refresh as well, this is due to the training process of our AI’s which become more accurate over time
Social – Contagion Major Cities Toronto Montreal Anxiousness & Morale - COVID-19 Anxiousness & Morale - COVID-19 (Per 100k Canadians) (Per 100k Canadians) 8000 8000 Current ratio between 7000 9.8 solidarity/anxiety. 7000 4.1 6000 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 13-Mar 20-Mar 27-Mar 15-May 22-May 29-May 28-Feb 3-Apr 5-Jun 10-Apr 17-Apr 24-Apr 6-Mar 1-May 8-May 28-Feb 3-Apr 13-Mar 20-Mar 27-Mar 15-May 22-May 29-May 5-Jun 10-Apr 17-Apr 24-Apr 6-Mar 1-May 8-May Vancouver Calgary Anxiousness & Morale - COVID-19 Anxiousness & Morale - COVID-19 (Per 100k Canadians) (Per 100k Canadians) 8000 8000 7000 11.9 7000 2.7 6000 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 28-Feb 3-Apr 13-Mar 20-Mar 27-Mar 15-May 22-May 29-May 5-Jun 10-Apr 17-Apr 24-Apr 6-Mar 1-May 8-May Ottawa Winnipeg* Anxiousness & Morale - COVID-19 Anxiousness & Morale - COVID-19 (Per 100k Canadians) (Per 100k Canadians) 8000 8000 7000 6.8 7000 1.7 6000 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 13-Mar 20-Mar 27-Mar 15-May 22-May 29-May 13-Mar 20-Mar 27-Mar 15-May 22-May 29-May 28-Feb 3-Apr 5-Jun 28-Feb 3-Apr 5-Jun 10-Apr 17-Apr 24-Apr 10-Apr 17-Apr 24-Apr 6-Mar 6-Mar 1-May 8-May 1-May 8-May *Anxiety data not registered intermittently Observe • 14-day period - Higher morale, lower anxiety : Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa • 14-day period - Higher anxiety, lower morale : Montreal, Calgary, Winnipeg • Trends in the last 24 hours: • Drop in morale in Winnipeg and Calgary but a rise in other major cities. • Drop in anxiety in Calgary, Vancouver, and Toronto.
DDL Real-Time Consumer Confidence Index (RCCI) Gouthem Manakkadan, Sr. Analyst, Strategic Development • The DDL RCCI merges insights from the DDL AI study with the broader economic landscape in which the Canadian consumer makes purchase decisions. • The Anxiety-Morale ratio factors in emotional considerations that influence all purchase decisions made by consumers during this stressful period. • The RCCI further incorporates economic factors such as unemployment, commodity prices, wage cuts, and the stock market to arrive at an intuitive metric to evaluate and predict consumer behavior. Note: The RCCI is based on the best-effort and best-data to provide insights into consumer dynamics. It should not be used to guide investment decisions. 10.00 9.00 8.00 First lowest drop in consumer confidence 7.00 occurred around March 12th Trend = Polynomial DDL RCCI 6.00 5.00 5.45 4.00 4.55 3.00 2.00 1.00 25-Jan 1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb 29-Feb 7-Mar 14-Mar 21-Mar 28-Mar 4-Apr 11-Apr 18-Apr 25-Apr 2-May 9-May 16-May 23-May 30-May 6-Jun RCCI Insight Consumer Purchase Behavior 0-5 Low consumer confidence Unlikely to purchase except essentials – groceries, medicines 5-8 Moderate consumer confidence Likely to show normal purchase behavior – retail, cosmetics + essentials 8-10 High consumer confidence Likely to show abnormal purchase behavior – luxury, travel & tourism Observe +7.27% Driven -4.11% +2.85% Consumer Confidence by Anxiety-Morale Ratio Stock Markets vs. Same Day Last Week* vs. Same Day Last Week* vs. Same Day Last Week* • The RCCI was trending upwards in Feb 2020, recovering from the post holiday slump. However, the impact of COVID-19 meant that RCCI dropped down to below 4 in mid-March at the height of the panic. • It has now recovered to an extent, trending at near 5 over April, May, and early June. • We believe 5 is the “new normal” RCCI for Canada – meaning that consumer confidence is trending between low and moderate for now. This will likely increase when Canada “reopens” fully. • However the big question is whether it will take for the pandemic to go away (vaccine or herd immunity, both a long way away) for RCCI to become high again (8+). • If this is the case, there may be significant long-term implications for many brands. * June 2nd - June 9th, 2020
In Their Words – Social Media Take-Aways Solidarity Anxiety “ Great profile of the amazing Dr. Bonnie Henry. All BC is proud of her work+the extraordinary efforts of “ QT @globeandmail: I have spoken to people who have been victims of racism during this pandemic. Fear @CDCofBC health care workers, breeds hate. Hate breeds violence. If nurses, doctors, health sciences we all speak out, we can make sure professionals, ambulance hate is given no space to take hold and paramedics+more as we have come no air to breathe. ; Vancouver race- together to deal with COVID-19 based hate crimes up sevenfold since last yea “ Dear #Raiders #RaiderNation my stepdaughter is donating a kidney to my daughter in Vancouver, BC, on “ QT @NPR: These 'dozens of public health experts' have just declared open season on white people as far as Monday June 22, 2020. Postponed I'm concerned. I take this as a once due to COVID 19. Could I get declaration of war against me. I will some Raider love and prayers for these not forget their names. ; Dozens of two beautiful girls to come through this public health and disease experts have together Strong signed an open letter in support of the nationwide anti-racism protests. “ I spoke with the owner of the Rose and Crown this evening. He and his wife just had a baby and are worried "White supremacy is a lethal public health issue that predates and contributes to COVID-19," they wrote. their bar won’t survive the pandemic. We’re going to work together, as a community, to keep this North Toronto landmark alive. Patios on “ To those in my community who are struggling with the financial stress of a pandemic and who have been ignored because of your disability, I am Yonge? :) fighting for you “ Today, we heard the Premier announce his plans for Phase II of reopening Alberta’s economy. This is “ I am very concerned about food shortages, but I have to say that this was always going to be the natural welcome news. Albertans have pulled end of an unnatural system. Farmers together to fight this pandemic tooth need to stop begging the government and nail. THREAD #ableg and organize their own supply chains LOCALLY. THINK, don't beg!
In Their Words – Social Media Take-Aways Observe • Canadians support the BLM movement but worry that protests are happening during the pandemic. • During these harsh times, CSR initiatives continue to spark engagements from the audience. • Users celebrate the Pride Month while social distancing during COVID-19. Observe • Canadians are blaming new (and potentially new) cases of COVID19 on mass anti-racism demonstrations. That conversation spreads highly negative (discriminatory) mentions. • Reopening also rises anxieties as Canadians worry that politicians are valuing the economy over people lives.
Media Consumption Trends Observe 1. TV viewership is down by 2% overall: starting mid-May, the AMA(000) was significantly dropping from ~1,450 to ~1,050. With warmer weather and a reopening around the corner, TV viewership is slightly dropping. Total TV – Average Minute Audience (000) – A25-54 -2% -3% +1% 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Canada English Canada French Canada Pre-Covid During COVID-19 Observe 2. Compared to the pre-Covid period, viewership of News channels has undoubtfuly increased. However, we see that the AMA(000) has been decresing since mid-April. News Channels* – Average Minute Audience (000) – A25-54 +115% +78% +56% 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Canada English Canada French Canada Pre-Covid During COVID-19 * CTV News Channel, CBC News, CP24, LCN & RDI. Source : Numeris, A25-54. Pre-Covid = Jan1 – March 15 2020. During COVID-19 = March 16 – June 16, 2020. Consolidated data (Live + Time shifting).
Media Consumption Trends Observe 3. Regardless of regionality, sports viewership is down 80% across the country. Sports Channels* – Average Minute Audience (000) – A25-54 -80% -81% -74% 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Canada English Canada French Canada Pre-Covid During COVID-19 * TSN, Sportsnet, RDS & TVA Sports. 4. Sports viewership is especially on the decline among Men ages 25-54 – the drop-in sports audience almost entirely shifted to news channels. Content Pre-COVID COVID AMA Difference Difference AMA (000) (000) (000) (%) Total TV 687 655 -32 -5% Sports Channels* 76 16 -60 -79% News Channels** 29 59 +30 +103% Broadcast Networks 222 202 -20 -9% Other 360 581 +221 +61% * TSN, Sportsnet, RDS & TVA Sports. ** CTV News Channel, CBC News, CP24, LCN & RDI. Source : Numeris, A25-54. Pre-Covid = Jan1 – March 15 2020. During COVID-19 = March 16 – June 16, 2020. Consolidated data (Live + Time shifting).
Media Landscape Shifts Observe 5. Among Media Companies, market dynamics are stable in English Canada while Quebecor strengthens its position in French Canada. Share by Media Company – English Canada – A25-54 23% 23% 4% 6% Bell Media Eng 26% Rogers Media Eng 29% Corus Eng 9% 6% CBC Eng 38% 36% Other Pre-COVID-19 During COVID-19 Share by Media Company – French Canada – A25-54 24% 21% Quebecor 9% 8% Bell Media 16% 18% CBC Fr 10% 16% V Media* 35% 43% Other Pre-COVID-19 During COVID-19 *V Media acquired by Bell Media but sales integration not yet completed. Source : Numeris, A25-54. Pre-Covid = Jan1 – March 15 2020. During COVID-19 = March 16 – April 12, 2020. Consolidated data (Live + Time shifting).
Current Messaging Guide Last updated: May 1st, 2020 As brands, employers and ordinary people can work together to help ease out of the crisis by: 1. Making sure there is relief, a break, an escape, for ourselves and those around us 2. Being there to listen, on the lookout for signs mental distress 3. Reminding people that feel fine, that hey can reach out and help those who aren’t 4. Develop a contagion of courage, good health, happiness, empathy and solidarity. When we act from on those principles, we are valuable. 5. Bring together those around you to create a sense of solidarity 6. Become of service People need brands to do four things And only if truly adding value… Recognize those that are doing Explaining how you can still 1 1 well, the daily heroes do business with a company (“we are here for you... 2 Provide practical advice on getting online”) through social distancing Provide “escape,” not to think Demonstrating all the great 3 2 about COVID-19 things a brand is doing to help (i.e. seeking 4 Actively communicate or refer to a recognition – “we are doing reliable health information source. x y z for the good of the Fight disinformation when possible. country”) Deployed well by many brands Room for improvement for many brands Often underutilized or applied ineffectively
WORKSHEETS At the end of the working day, we strongly recommend for stakeholders to read this report and generate meaningful take-aways in the following section. In order to share results and finalize action lists, we advise for an internal stakeholder meeting early in the following morning.
Worksheet: Intelligence Requirements Explainer Based on the insights in this report, the below chart is meant to consolidate any knowledge gaps that you think are relevant for you. Intelligence requirements describe information that a leader “has an anticipated and stated priority for, in their task of planning and decision making.” In their task of planning and strategizing, key stakeholders can leverage this worksheet to anticipate and track priority of their knowledge gaps. 1. Intelligence 2. Key Topics/ 3. Rank/Level of 4. Key Research 5. Key Dates 6. Status Requirements Hypothesis Importance Questions Step 1: Identify knowledge gaps Step 2: What are our assumptions and hypothesis when trying to answer these knowledge gaps Step 3: Propose questions that are feasible, specific and timely Step 4: Rank the importance of knowledge gaps in the relation to your business objectives Step 5: Key dates by which the information is of value Step 6: Status of where we are in the intelligence cycle Unsure how to apply the intelligence cycle? We provide training (at no cost), please reach out to Damien.Hilgendorf@dentsuaegis.com
Worksheet: “OODA-Looping” Today’s Insights • Implement actions • Information from the data; factual based on decisions and and unbiased situational awareness Act Observe Decide • Create situational awareness • Generate options Orient • Make sense of our assessments • Decide between them • Create a “world-view” Your Conclusions Observe
Worksheet: “OODA-Looping” Today’s Insights Your Conclusions Orient Decide
Worksheet: OODA-looping the day (2) Act Next actions: What When Who
Methodologies Artificial Intelligence Three topical models [COVID-19 & (engagement, anxiety, solidarity)] are applied to a randomized, controlled sample of Canadian population derived from public data. Demographics are probabilistically determined based on AI classifiers. Sample is weighted to Canadian population and results are reported as part of population or ‘x per 100,000 population’. Data is refreshed daily and historical results may change due to AI refinement. All data is held to an 85% confidence interval. Period of study is December 31st, 2020 00:00:00 to 23:59:59 yesterday. M1 Panel M1 Panel is globally consistent, locally executed, benchmark study conducted annually by Dentsu Aegis Network under a representative sample of 22,500 Canadians. The survey contains questions on demographics, psychographics, media consumption/imperatives, category usage, daily life and decision-making processes. Social Media Analyses Social analyses is conducted using Meltwater by DDL analysts. Verbatims are selected randomly within a subset of selected topics. Any verbatims that are transcribed include original errors, punctuation or capitalization. Emoji are removed. RTV Analyses RTV data is derived from Numeris. Unless otherwise stated all numbers reported reflect on A25-54. Comparisons ‘corrected to weekdays’ means that the numbers used are mapped on the same day of the week, on the same week of the year. Search Engine Analyses Search analyses is conducted through SEMRush by DDL analysts.
Index of Reports As we are publishing more reports, there are certain themes and content items that may be worthwhile to refer to. Starting from today, we will keep a running index of all the major themes that were discussed previously. Vol. Major Themes 2020-03-18, #1 Introduction to AI, Consumer Confidence Index, Audience: Overly anxious 2020-03-19, #2 Society going virtual?, Shaping the New Normal, TV: Daytime prime-time 2020-03-20, #3 Government communication effective, Focus on Quebec, What Brands are Doing 2020-03-23, #4 Staying Healthy, AI: First major city and CMA data, Audience: Super Health Conscious 2020-03-24, #5 Effectivity of war-effort language; Impact of government; #plankthecurve, TV Top 25 2020-03-25, #6 Guest feature: War-gaming (Preparing for June); Misinformation/Infodemic 2020-03-26, #7 Mental Health; Radio Trends 2020-03-27, #8 Spotlight on Quebec, Current messaging guide 2020-03-30, #9 First meta-trends, News drip, TV Regional Analyses 2020-03-31, #10 Escapism, Sports viewers, More meta-trends 2020-04-01, #11 N95 crisis-in-crisis, Focus on News Channels, People in Motion 2020-04-02, #12 Generosity and kindness during COVID-19, Audience: Rational Canadians 2020-04-03, #13 A glimpse of the future; Radio slips further 2020-04-06, #14 Esports and online gaming during the current crisis; news fatigue 2020-04-07, #15 How retail sector can avoid a COVID-19 hangover; TV audience by media company 2020-04-08, #16 COVID-19 and TV Upfront; Quebec tops viewing increase chart 2020-04-09, #17 Audience in focus: Unemployed; Killing time 2020-04-14, #18 Big Tech public perception; Trusted sources of information 2020-04-15, #19 Providing added value to customers; Digital Ad Spend & Media Consumption 2020-04-16, #20 Life after the crisis and psychological despair; Digital Media Consumption 2020-04-17, #21 Arruda Matata: the creation of moral heroes; Vehicle Traffic and OOH 2020-04-20, #22 4/20 and the digitisation future of in-person events; Streaming during the pandemic 2020-04-21, #23 On the importance of traditional media; One World, Together at Home 2020-04-22, #24 Is this a time for revolution?; South of the Border 2020-05-11, #25 Planning ahead; Social Audience: car purchase intenders; Key media consumption trends
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