UNDERSTANDING MIDDLE EAST EDUCATION - UAE COUNTRY PROFILE PWC EDUCATION AND SKILLS PRACTICE

Page created by Victor Mitchell
 
CONTINUE READING
UNDERSTANDING MIDDLE EAST EDUCATION - UAE COUNTRY PROFILE PWC EDUCATION AND SKILLS PRACTICE
Understanding
Middle East
Education
UAE Country Profile
PwC Education and Skills Practice

Second Edition, 2018/2019

pwc.com/me
UNDERSTANDING MIDDLE EAST EDUCATION - UAE COUNTRY PROFILE PWC EDUCATION AND SKILLS PRACTICE
The UAE is one of the more
mature education markets
in the region and remains
a draw for investors, providers
and students

This series of infographics     The UAE is one of the more mature education markets in the region and
                                remains a draw for investors, providers and students. Its scale and ambition
provides a country by country   remain undimmed, but what is the reality on the ground? What do the trends
overview of the education       over time tell us about the education sector by segment, and what are the key
                                differences between its main markets? In order to better understand the UAE’s
sector in the Middle East       Education sector, it is important to understand the country’s:
                                • Education Ecosystem
                                • Structure of the Education System
                                • Key Players
                                • Overall Quality of Education

                                This sets the scene for a deep dive into the enrolment trends and education
                                outcomes of the UAE’s education systems across its three main education
                                stages: PreK, K-12 and Higher Education. We explore provision in the public
                                and private education sectors across the seven Emirates, with a focus
                                on its two biggest markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

                                                                                            UAE Country Profile | 2
UNDERSTANDING MIDDLE EAST EDUCATION - UAE COUNTRY PROFILE PWC EDUCATION AND SKILLS PRACTICE
Education Ecosystem
Key influences on private provision in the UAE

Investment                                            Operating                                              Attractiveness to
Climate                                               Environment                                            Expat Families
In the 2017-18 Global Competitiveness                 The country’s two biggest Emirates,                   The UAE currently ranks 10th in HSBC’s
Report, the UAE’s macroeconomic                       Dubai and Abu Dhabi, have regulatory                  2017 Expat Explorer Survey, climbing
environment was ranked among the top                  bodies in place to streamline the                     two spots from its 2016 ranking, making
30 globally, with the country being the               education investment and operations                   it the highest ranking country in the
largest destination for FDI in the region.            processes.                                            Middle East in terms of expat attitudes
                                                                                                            and behaviours – an indicator for the
The government recently introduced                    In Abu Dhabi, the Abu Dhabi Department
                                                                                                            attractiveness of a country to expats.
ownership laws to allow for 100%                      of Education and Knowledge (ADEK)
foreign investor ownership of companies               is undergoing changes to its mandate,                 However, a recent survey by YouGov
outside free zones and 10 year residency              shifting its focus away from public                   shows that 42% of surveyed UAE
visa options – a move designed to drive               educational institutions – which are to               residents think the introduction of VAT
more foreign investment into the country              move under the Ministry of Education’s                is likely to discourage expats from
and attract longer term residents.                    responsibility – to focus on private                  coming to the UAE. This is mainly driven
                                                      institutions, in a manner similar to that of          by the belief that the tax will increase
More and more private equity firms in
                                                      the Knowledge and Human Development                   the cost of living, and have a somewhat
the region are growing their education
                                                      Authority (KHDA) in Dubai.                            uncertain effect on the overall economy.
portfolios in light of this climate, with
the education sector ranking second                   Schools continue to face challenges                   The UAE is at a point of inflection,
in terms of private equity transactions               in attracting and retaining the highest               making predictions for the coming
among all sectors in the Middle East.                 quality teachers and principals                       years difficult to forecast. What is clear
                                                      regionally and in the UAE market in                   is that the country’s potential – and
The cost of living in the UAE continues
                                                      particular. Recent legislation from                   government willingness – to create
to increase however, and the degree
                                                      the Ministry of Education to introduce                a successful sector make for a strong
to which this and the introduction of
                                                      teacher licensing aims to ensure a                    starting point in the region. This is
VAT will affect education sector growth
                                                      minimum standard of quality for all                   particularly relevant considering that
is yet to be determined. The Dubai
                                                      teachers in the country.                              the relative immaturity of the private
government has already stepped in
                                                                                                            sector in surrounding GCC countries,
by freezing K-12 tuition increases for
                                                                                                            in particular in KSA, continues to drive
the 2018/19 academic year to protect
                                                                                                            expats to base their families in the UAE.
parents, but the move has caused some
existing investors to reevaluate their
investment decisions, at least for the
coming year.

Sources: World Economic Forum, HSBC Expat Explorer, PwC Middle East Economy Watch, S& Investment opportunities                      UAE Country Profile | 3
in the GCC education sector, YouGov Omnibus Research 2018
UNDERSTANDING MIDDLE EAST EDUCATION - UAE COUNTRY PROFILE PWC EDUCATION AND SKILLS PRACTICE
Structure of the Education System
Similar regulatory structures have emerged across the largest two Emirates in recent years

Figure 1: Structure of the UAE education system

 Age       British        American        Emirati                                                 UAE National Regulators               Dubai Regulators      Abu Dhabi Regulators
           System          System         System

                                                                                                   Commission
            Post-           Post-          Post-                                                  for Academic
 18+
          secondary       secondary      secondary                                                Accreditation
                                                                                                      (CAA)               Vocational                                   Abu Dhabi
                                                                                                                          Education           KHDA TVET                 Centre for
                                                                                                                             and             Qualifications            Technical &
                                                                                                                           Training          and Awards in             Vocational
                                                                                                                            Awards            Dubai (QAD)               Education
                                                                                                                            Council                                      Training
                                                                                                                           (VETAC)                                      (ACTVET)
 17
          Secondary

           Grades                        Secondary
 16
           (12-13)
                                        Grades (9-12)

 15
                          Secondary
                                                        National Qualifications Authority (NQA)

 14                         Grades
                            (7-12)

 13       Secondary

           Grades                       Intermediate
 12        (7-11)
                                         Grades (6-8)

 11                                                                                                                                      Knowledge and        Abu Dhabi Department
                                                                                                     Ministry of Education (MoE)       Human Development        of Education and
                                                                                                                                        Authority (KHDA)       Knowledge (ADEK)
 10

  9

                          Elementary
  8        Primary
                            Grades       Elementary
           Grades            (1-6)
                                           Grades
  7         (1-6)
                                            (1-5)

  6

  5                      Kindergarten   Kindergarten

  4
         Pre-Primary
           FS1-FS2
  3                         Pre-K           Pre-K

Sources: UNESCO, UAE Government

                                                                                                                                                               UAE Country Profile | 4
UNDERSTANDING MIDDLE EAST EDUCATION - UAE COUNTRY PROFILE PWC EDUCATION AND SKILLS PRACTICE
Key Players
A small number of large operators and institutions play a major role in the UAE’s delivery
landscape, although the number and variety of providers is increasing

Figure 2: Key Players in the UAE education system
                                                                  K-12                    Higher Ed                         Local Government
                                    Pre–K
                                                            (No. of Schools)           (Enrolment No.)                         Regulators

  Abu Dhabi                  •   GEMS Education         •   GEMS Education (7)    • Higher Colleges of
                                                                                    Technology (23,000)
                                                                                                                      • AD Department of
                                                                                                                        Education & Knowledge
                             •   Aldar Academies        •   Aldar Academies (7)
                                                                                  • UAE University (14,000)             (ADEK)
                             •   Bright Kids            •   SABIS (7)
                                                                                  • Abu Dhabi University (7,500)      • AD Centre for Technical
                             •   Kids First Group       •   Bloom (2)                                                   & Vocational Education &
                             •   Bloom                                            • Zayed University (5,700)            Training (ACTVET)

  Dubai                      •   GEMS Education         •   GEMS Education (32)   • University of
                                                                                    Wollongong (3,900)
                                                                                                                      • Knowledge and
                                                                                                                        Human Development
                             •   Taaleem                •   Taaleem (10)
                                                                                  • Zayed University (3,800)            Authority (KHDA)
                             •   Innoventures           •   Innoventures (5)
                             •   Kids First Group       •   SABIS (2)             • Heriot-Watt University
                                                                                    Dubai (3,600)
                             •   Babilou                •   Bloom (2)
                                                                                  • Middlesex University
                             •   Bloom                                              Dubai (3,100)
                                                                                  • Manipal University (2,500)
                                                                                  • American University in
                                                                                    Dubai (2,300)

  Rest of UAE                                           • GEMS Education (10)     • University of Sharjah
                                                                                    (13,800)
                                                                                                                      •    Sharjah Education Council
                                                        • SABIS (5)                                                   •    Ajman Educational Zone
                                                                                  • Ajman Uni of Science &            •    RAK Educational Zone
                                                                                    Technology (6,300)
                                                                                                                      •    Fujairah Educational Zone
                                                                                  • American University of
                                                                                    Sharjah (5,650)                   •    UAQ Educational Zone

Sources: numbers based on secondary sources, Nov 2018

Overall Quality of Education
The quality of the UAE’s primary and higher education systems rank among the top 20 globally

Figure 3: Global Competitiveness Index Rankings (2015, 2016, 2017)
                                                                  Change from
                                                                                           2017-18               2016-17               2015-16
                                                               2016-17 to 2017-18
 Overall                                                                                      17th                 16th                   17th

 Quality of primary education                                                                 16th                 12th                   13th

 Quality of higher education                                                                  12th                 10th                   12th

 Primary education enrolment, net %                                                           87th                 100th                  94th

 Secondary education enrolment, gross %                                                       NA                   71st                   67th

 Tertiary education enrolment, gross %                                                        94th                 96th                   99th

                The UAE continues to be the most competitive country in the Arab World according to the Global
                Competitiveness Index, but its ranking dropped back to 2015-16 levels in 2017-18. This was mainly due to the
                relative improvement of other countries, highlighting a need to accelerate change. Education was highlighted as
                a key driver of competitiveness.

Sources: World Economic Forum
                                                                                                                                  UAE Country Profile | 5
UNDERSTANDING MIDDLE EAST EDUCATION - UAE COUNTRY PROFILE PWC EDUCATION AND SKILLS PRACTICE
UAE’s PISA rankings 2012-15 improved for Mathematics but dropped for Reading & Science, while
 TIMSS results showed better performance in Mathematics and Science for Dubai compared with
 Abu Dhabi 2011-15

 Figure 4: PISA Results (2012, 2015)

        520

        500
                                                                                                      PISA Rankings: between 2012 and
                                                                                                     2015 the UAE moved up one spot in
        480
                                                                                                      Mathematics, where it now stands
                                                                                                        in 47th place, but fell two places
                                                                                                       in Reading, from 46 to 48 and in
        460                                      44
Score

                                 46                                                                  Science, from 44 to 46. However, the
                                                                                          46
                  48                                                            48                    UAE Government has an aspiration
        440                                                   47
                                                                                                       to move into the top 20 by 2021.
        420
                                                                                                      PISA Scores: both UAE scores and
                                                                                                        OECD average scores dropped
        400                                                                                          compared with 2012 levels. The UAE
                                                                                                      scores are the highest in the region,
        380
                                                                                                     but remain below the OECD average.
                 Mathematics     Reading         Science      Mathematics       Reading   Science        Dubai private schools offering
                                   2012                                          2015                  international curricula performed
                                                                                                         better than private and public
                                                                                                      schools offering MoE curricula. The
                                                                                                     MoE curricula is being modernised to
                                           UAE         OECD Average         Ranking                           address this issue.

 Figure 5: TIMSS Results (2011, 2015)
                               2011                                   2015
                               UAE                     434            UAE                      452

   Math 4th Grade              Dubai                   468            Dubai                    511

                               Abu Dhabi               417            Abu Dhabi                419

                               UAE                     456            UAE                      465
                                                                                                        TIMSS Scores show significant
   Math 8th Grade              Dubai                   478            Dubai                    512
                                                                                                           improvement for Dubai in
                               Abu Dhabi               449            Abu Dhabi                442    Mathematics and Science (4th & 8th
                                                                                                        Grade) and small improvement
                               UAE                     428            UAE                      451        for Abu Dhabi in 4th Grade
                                                                                                      Mathematics & Science, with drops
   Science 4th Grade           Dubai                   461            Dubai                    518   in 8th Grade Mathematics & Science
                                                                                                                performance.
                               Abu Dhabi               411            Abu Dhabi                415

                               UAE                     465            UAE                      477

   Science 8th Grade           Dubai                   485            Dubai                    525

                               Abu Dhabi               461            Abu Dhabi                454

 Sources: OECD, Ministry of Education, International Monetary Fund, IEA TIMSS

                                                                                                                            UAE Country Profile | 6
UNDERSTANDING MIDDLE EAST EDUCATION - UAE COUNTRY PROFILE PWC EDUCATION AND SKILLS PRACTICE
Key Education Trends: Pre-K
 Pre-K enrolment is expected to increase in Dubai & Abu Dhabi, with the latter expected to grow
 at a faster rate

 Figure 6: Pre-K Enrolment Estimates (2013-2021)

   Population 0-4
      (‘000)**    433.9     429.0      423.6     417.5      411.3     405.7      400.6      395.5     384.4

            30,000

                                                                                                                 Whilst Dubai has reported having
            25,000
                                                                                                                 more than 200 nurseries, (around
                                                                                                                50 more than Abu Dhabi reported),
Enrolment

                                                                                                                  nursery enrolment in Abu Dhabi
            20,000                                                                                               has seen faster growth, which, if it
                                                                                                               continues, will result in an expected
                                                                                                                    2016-2021 CAGR of 11.5%
            15,000
                                                                                                               compared with 9% in Dubai. Overall
                                                                                                                  we expect growth to continue as
            10,000                                                                                              the emphasis on the importance of
                                                                                                               early childhood education increases,
                                                                                                                 alongside a move towards higher
             5,000
                                                                                                                  female participation rates in the
                                                                                                                            workforce.
                0
                                                                                                               OECD average participation rates of
                     2013    2014      2015*      2016E     2017E      2018E      2019E      2020E     2021E   0-2 year olds are estimated at 33%,
                                        Dubai Enrolment              Abu Dhabi Enrolment
                                                                                                               compared to estimated participation
                                                                                                                rates of 7% in Abu Dhabi and 10%
 *: Estimated figure for Abu Dhabi and actual data for Dubai                                                                 in Dubai.
 **: Population estimates include half the 4 year old population to account for academic year considerations
 Sources: UN, Dubai Statistics Center (DSC), Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD), PwC Analysis

                                                                                                                                      UAE Country Profile | 7
Key Education Trends: K-12
   Private education enrolment is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~4%, almost 4 times higher than the
   rate of public education enrolment growth

    Figure 7: K-12 Enrolment Estimates (2013-2021)

   Population 4-18* (‘000)    1,045       1,057             1,068          1,131                1,174            1,204            1,224           1,235         1,281
                   1,400                                                                                                                                                       800

                   1,200                                                                                                                                                       700

                                                                                                                                                                               600
                   1,000
                                                                                                                                                                               500
Enrolment (‘000)

                    800

                                                                                                                                                                                     No. of Schools
                                                                                                                                                                               400
                    600
                                                                                                                                                                               300
                    400       72%         71%               73%            73%                  74%              75%              75%             76%            76%           200

                    200       28%         29%               27%            27%                  26%              25%              25%             24%            24%           100

                      0                                                                                                                                                          0
                             2013         2014              2015           2016             2017E                2018E            2019E           2020E         2021E

                                         No. of Students – Public   No. of Students – Private           No. of Schools – Public      No. of Schools – Private

                           More than 150,000 new students will enroll between 2016 and 2021 in private K-12 if enrolment growth
                           continues at the current rate – although some of this will be absorbed by capacity in existing school with low
                           utilization rates, particularly those most recently opened. (refer to Figure 9 for a breakdown of school growth in
                           Dubai and Abu Dhabi)
                           This growth is in line with UN projections, which predict that the overall population will continue to grow until
                           2021. The K-12 age group (4-18) shows the highest growth during the 2013-2016 period (CAGR 2.7%), and is
                           likely to grow at a slightly slower rate for 2017-2021 (CAGR 2.2%). In 2016, the UAE had 27% of its students in
                           public schools, and it spent around $22,000 (80,000 AED) per student, more than double the OECD average of
                           $9,000 (33,000 AED).

   * Population estimates include half the 4 year old population and half the 18 year old population to account for academic year considerations
   Sources: UN, Ministry of Education, International Monetary Fund, PwC Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                UAE Country Profile | 8
By Emirate: K-12 private sector enrolment grew by more than 95,000 between 2013 and 2016 across
    all seven Emirates, with almost 60% of that growth coming from Dubai and Abu Dhabi

    Figure 8: K-12 Enrolment by Emirate (2013, 2016)

                   400
                   350
Enrolment (‘000)

                   300
                                     65%
                   250      63%
                   200                                         90%
                                                       89%                            81%
                   150                                                        79%
                    50                                                                                                                                                          41%    45%
                                                                                                                                                               38%    41%
                                                                                                      71%      75%                                    52%
                                                                                                                                  39%
                     0
                           2013/14 2016/17         2013/14 2016/17           2013/14 2016/17         2013/14 2016/17          2013/14 2016/17                2013/14 2016/17   2013/14 2016/17

                              Abu Dhabi                  Dubai                   Sharjah                  Ajman                   Umm Al Quwain                Al Fujairah      Ras Al Khaimah
                           (includes Al-Ain
                            and Al Garbia)
                                                                                                         Emirates

                                                                                                     Public         Private

   Sources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), Ministry of Education, Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD)

   By Main Markets: Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been growing at similar rates when it comes to K-12
   private sector enrolment (~CAGR 4%)

   Figure 9: Private K-12 Enrolment Estimates in Dubai and Abu Dhabi (2013-2021)

                   350                                                                                                        250

                   300
                                                                                                                              200
                                                                                                                                                              While enrolment growth rates
                   250
                                                                                                                                                             tend to be similar between the
Enrolment (‘000)

                                                                                                                                     No. of Schools

                                                                                                                              150                           two Emirates (~CAGR 4%) 2013-
                   200
                                                                                                                                                            2016, the number of schools has
                                                                                                                                                            grown more quickly in Dubai than
                   150
                                                                                                                              100                            Abu Dhabi, possibly due to Abu
                   100
                                                                                                                                                             Dhabi having started off with a
                                                                                                                                                             higher number of schools. Abu
                                                                                                                              50
                    50
                                                                                                                                                              Dhabi may be at the point of
                                                                                                                                                            needing to introduce schools at a
                     0                                                                                                        0                             faster rate to increase capacity if
                         2013      2014         2015         2016    2017*       2018E      2019E      2020E        2021E                                     enrolment growth continues.
                         Abu-Dhabi Enrollment          Dubai Enrollment          Abu-Dhabi Schools            Dubai Schools

   * Estimated figure for Abu Dhabi and actual data for Dubai
   Sources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), Dubai Statistics Center (DSC), Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD), PwC Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                 UAE Country Profile | 9
By Curriculum: UK, Indian and US curriculum popularity continues to drive growth in enrolment,
 with UK preference being significantly higher in Dubai, compared with a mix of preferences
 in Abu Dhabi

 Figure 10: Private K-12 Enrolment Estimates by Curriculum in Dubai and Abu Dhabi (2013-2021)

                             In Dubai, if UK school enrolment continues to increase, it will represent over a third of the market by 2021.
                             This will translate into 26,000 more enrolments by 2021, representing growth over 6 times higher than any
                             other school curriculum type. In Abu Dhabi, the case is similar for US curriculum schools, where, if enrolment
                             continues to increase, it will represent almost a third of the market in 2021, with more than 21,000 additional
                             enrolments. The drop in MoE curriculum popularity could reflect a preference among parents for more
                             international curricula.

            120,000                                   Dubai                                                            Abu Dhabi

            100,000

             80,000
Enrolment

             60,000

             40,000

             20,000

                 0
                      2013   2014   2015   2016      2017    2018E    2019E   2020E   2021E   2013    2014   2015   2016      2017     2018E     2019E   2020E     2021E

                                    UK      Indian          US       MoE      IB                     US      UK      Indian          MoE       SABIS     Other**

 * Other includes IB, among other less common curricula (French, Canadian, etc.)
 Sources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), Department of Education and Knowledge (ADEK), PwC Analysis

                                                                                                                                                 UAE Country Profile | 10
By Quality: Overall school quality in Dubai improved over the past 5 years, with schools rated good
and higher growing from 49% of total schools to 66%

Figure 11: Private School Ratings in Dubai (2013-2017)

                                   Overall utilization has dropped across curriculum types meaning that at least some of the projected additional
                                   enrolment will be provided for in existing schools. The new capacity in IB in particular has not been filled yet,
                                   which could be explained by the high tuition fees of these schools. Despite higher average fees, parents remain
                                   willing to send their children to “Outstanding” and “Very Good” schools. On the other hand, the utilization of
                                   ‘Good‘ and 'Acceptable' schools has dropped significantly. The ‘Weak' rated schools are now seeing higher
                                   utilization, perhaps explained by the closure of the weakest and emptiest schools and the fact that these schools
                                   tend to cater to lower income families.

                           50%
                                                46.0%
                                                                                   43.3%                                                     44.0%
                                        41.0%                            41.8%                                                                                               41.0%
                           40%                                                                                38.5% 37.2%
Share of Private Schools

                                                                                                                                                     30.8%                           30.7%
                           30%
                                                                                                                                                                     24.7%

                           20%                                                                        19.6%                          18.9%

                           10%   8.6%                             9.9%
                                                                                           5.0%                                                              6.3%
                                                        4.3%                                                                4.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                             3.6%

                           0%
                                         2013-14                           2014-15                              2015-16                         2016-17                        2017-18

                                                                 School Ratings:       Outstanding + Very Good        Good         Acceptable        Weak

Figure 12: Private School Utilization Rates by Curriculum in Dubai (2014, 2017)

                   Utilization rates
                                                                UK                     Indian                       US                     MoE                        IB                     Overall
                   by curriculum*

                   2014                                        87.5%                   88.6%                      86.1%                   84.2%                     93.3%                     88%

                   2017                                         82%                        82%                     79%                       78%                    78%                       80%

                   Average Fees AED**                          42,000                  14,000                     33,000                  7,000                     69,000                     –

Figure 13: Private School Utilization Rates by Rating in Dubai (2014, 2017)

                   Utilization rates
                                                        Outstanding                    Very Good                            Good                      Acceptable                         Weak
                   by rating*

                   2014                                        98.5%                              –                         95.3%                         90.9%                          79.5%

                   2017                                        93%                           91%                             81%                             81%                         85%

                   Average Fees AED**                          60,000                      50,000                           32,000                        18,000                         7,000

* Utilization is calculated by dividing current school enrolment by current school capacity
** Fees have been rounded to the nearest thousand
Sources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA)

                                                                                                                                                                                UAE Country Profile | 11
By Market Size: There is a shortage of quality schools in the AED 30,000-50,000 fee range

                                            Dubai’s average fees per student is around 26,000 AED, with the majority of schools charging fees below
                                            30,000 AED, particularly where schools tend be bigger and have ratings of “Good” or lower. The majority of
                                            “Very Good” and “Outstanding” Schools charge average fees over 40,000 AED. There is a market gap for
                                            schools in the 30,000-50,000 AED range, specifically for high quality schools.

  Figure 14: Private School Fee Distribution by Size, Curriculum and Rating in Dubai (2017)

                            12,000

                            10,000
                                                                                                                                                  UK          Outstanding

                                8,000
School Size (Enrolment))

                                                                                                                                                  Indian      Very Good

                                                                                                                                                  US          Good
                                6,000
                                                                                                                                                  MoE         Acceptable

                                4,000                                                                                                             IB          Weak

                                2,000

                                   0
                                        0    10000    20000      30000       40000     50000      60000   70000    80000     90000   100000

                                                                                 Average Fees (AED)

  Figure 15: Private School Market Size Estimates in Dubai and Abu Dhabi (2013-2021)**

                           12

                           10
    Billions (AED)

                            8                                                                                                                  The Dubai and Abu Dhabi
                                                                                                                                                markets are expected to
                            6                                                                                                                    grow at CAGR rates of
                                                                                                                                               7-8%, with Dubai growing
                            4
                                                                                                                                              at a slightly higher rate to a
                            2                                                                                                                 market value almost 4 billion
                                                                                                                                              AED higher than that of Abu
                            0                                                                                                                         Dhabi in 2021.
                                    2013      2014*      2015*           2016*       2017*       2018E     2019E     2020E       2021E

                                                                             Dubai           Abu Dhabi

   * Estimated figure for Abu Dhabi and actual data for Dubai
   **Abu Dhabi and Dubai K-12 private school market size based on tuition fee (AED) and enrolment
   Sources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), Department of Education and Knowledge (ADEK), PwC Analysis

                                                                                                                                                             UAE Country Profile | 12
Key Education Trends: Higher Education
The environment is uncertain, but Higher Education enrolment has the potential to grow by around
5,500 students by 2021

                        Higher education enrolment grew between 2013 and 2015 but fell in 2016, due to a drop in private enrolment
                        estimated at -2.5%. If enrolment continues to drop at the same pace, the market will lose more than 10,000
                        students in private HE by 2021, in what could be called a pessimistic scenario.
                        On the other hand, the 18-24 population is projected to grow at a CAGR of around 2% (2017-2021), inbound
                        student numbers exceeded 70,000 in 2016, and recent reforms have extended student visas from 1 year to 5
                        years and up to 10 years for “exceptional” students. These factors, in addition to the arrival of highly ranked
                        universities such as University of Birmingham, are likely to drive recovery in a “supply driven” market, closing
                        some of the gaps resulting from the small range of programs currently offered. An optimistic scenario could see
                        private enrolment continuing to grow linearly at a CAGR of 3.5%, adding more than 21,000 students by 2021.
                        The reality may be somewhere between these scenarios, where some recovery is expected, but at a growth rate
                        lower than that seen over the past few years. We estimate both public and private enrolment will grow at a CAGR
                        of around 0.7%, resulting in more than 5,500 extra enrolments by 2021.

Figure 16: Higher Education Enrolment Estimates (2013-2021)

              140,000

              120,000
  Enrolment

              100,000

               80,000

               60,000

               40,000

               20,000

                   0

                          2013        2014*            2015         2016          2017E           2018E         2019E                2020E          2021E

                                              Public     Private   PwC Estimate      Pessimistic Scenario      Optimistic Scenario

*2014 is an estimate
Sources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), UN, UNESCO, Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority (FCSA), PwC Analysis

                                                                                                                                             UAE Country Profile | 13
By Emirate: Dubai and Abu Dhabi dominate with the largest number of higher education students
In Dubai private provision makes up a much larger proportion of seats while in Abu Dhabi the split is even, likely driven both by
the fact that ~70% of Abu Dhabi students are Emiratis, compared with ~35% in Dubai. Equally important for understanding the
difference is the impact of Dubai’s academic free zones, which attract a large number of private universities and international
branch campuses to the Emirate, making private higher education a more attractive option for students seeking quality
international education.

Figure 17: Higher Education Enrolment Estimates by Emirate and by Sector (2016)

                                                                                     Ajman
                                                                                     Private 10,198 (4)
                                                                                     Public 0
2016-17                                                                                                                                        Ras Al Khaimah
                                                                                     Private 9,325 (4)
                                    Umm Al Quwain                                    Public 0                                                  Private 2,143 (2)
2013-14                             Private 423 (1)                                                                                            Public 2,583 (1)
()                                  Public 0
                                                                                                                                               Private 2,418 (3)
Number of                           Private 111 (1)                         Dubai                                                              Public 2,033 (1)
Universities                        Public 0
                                                                            Private 47,871 (54)
                                                                            Public 8,996 (2)
                                                                                                                                               Al Fujairah
                                                                            Private 43,175 (54)
                                                                            Public 9,411 (3)                                                   Private 1,703 (2)
                                                                                                                                               Public 2,044 (1)
                                                                                                                                               Private 1,612 (2)
                                                                                                                                               Public 2,234 (1)

                                                                                Abu Dhabi                                                      Sharjah
                                                                                Private 28,586 (29)                                            Private 21,556 (7)
                                                                                Public 28,516 (3)                                              Public 4,498 (1)

                                                                                Private 23,153 (31)                                            Private 19,794 (6)
                                                                                Public 28,180 (6)                                              Public 3,527 (1)

Sources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), Dubai Statistics Center (DSC), Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority (FCSA)

 By Main Markets: The biggest drop in private higher education enrolment in the UAE in 2016 came
 from Dubai’s non free zone universities

                    Enrolment in KHDA HEIs continued to grow, with the drop in 2016 coming from private HEIs outside of free
                    zones in Dubai. Abu Dhabi’s growth slowed in 2016 but did not see a drop in enrolment, continuing a trend of
                    slower yet steady increase over the past 4 years.

 Figure 18: Higher Education Enrolment Estimates in Dubai and Abu Dhabi (2013-2016)

 70,000
                        59,801           60,310
                                                      56,867                                 56,361       57,102
 60,000                                                                          53,848
           52,586                                                  51,333                                                       CAGR 2013-2016 Public
 50,000                                                                                                                         Dubai -1.5% | AD: 0.4%
           20,914       25,627           27,739       28,972      23,153         25,757       28,360      28,586
 40,000                                                                                                                         CAGR 2013-2016 Private
                                                                                                                                Dubai: -5.3% | AD: 7.3%
 30,000

 20,000
                                                                                                                                CAGR 2013-2016 Private FZ
           22,261       24,816           23,266       18,899      28,180         28,091      28,001       28,516
                                                                                                                                Dubai: 11.5%
 10,000
           9,411        9,358            9,305         8,996
      0
           2013         2014*            2015          2016        2013          2014*        2015        2016

                                 Dubai                                                Abu Dhabi

                                                  Public       Private        Private FZ

 *2014 is an estimate
 Sources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority (FCSA)                           UAE Country Profile | 14
By Specialization: There is little annual variation in graduating students’ specializations, despite
changing labor market needs, with Business and Engineering continuing to be the top choices in
both public and private universities

                   Public universities tend to have more diversity among their graduating students’ specializations than private
                   HEIs in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, where 75% of all graduating students fall under 2 specializations: Business and
                   Engineering in Dubai and Business and Education in Abu Dhabi. Private universities are also driven to offer more
                   profitable programs, and often stay away from programs that either attract smaller enrolment numbers or have
                   higher infrastructure and running costs. Examples include Medicine, Arts, Sports, History, Archaeology etc.
                   The UAE has a relatively low number of postgraduate students compared with mature markets and the number of
                   undergraduate students in the country. To enhance its global standing in education, more is required to increase
                   the number and attractiveness of postgraduate courses available as well as the availability of research funding.

Figure 19: Higher Education Graduates by Specialization in UAE Public Institutions (2015)

                                      13% 
                                       7%

                5%                                                                                                  2015-16              Business & Economics

                4%                                                                                                   2013-14              Engineering

                                                                        33%                                                              Information Technology
                                                                        45%
                                                                                                                                          Human & Social Sciences
      6% 
                                                                                                                                          Communication & Media Sciences
      5%
                                          UAE Public                                                                                      Education
                                           Education
                                          Total: 6,509                                                                                    Environment & Health Sciences
      8% 
      5%                                                                                                                                  Other
                                                                                                                                      Other includes IT, Medical Sciences,
                                                                                                                                      Arts & Design, Foreign languages,
                                                                                                                                      Sciences, Food and Agriculture along
      9%                                                                                                                             with undeclared and foundation year.
      5%                                                           13% 
                                                                   15%
                                 12% 
                                 14%

Figure 20: Higher Education Graduates by Specialization in Dubai and Abu Dhabi Private Institutions (2015)

10%                                                                                    9%                                                                          2%
11%                                                                                     15%                                                                          2%

7% 
6%                                                                   63%             13% 
                                                                     67%              14%
6% 
                                 Dubai Private                                                                        Abu Dhabi Private
5%                               Total: 5 ,943                                                                          Total: 2,806
                                                                                                                                                                    38%
                                                                                                                                                                    38%

13% 
11%                                                                                   38%
                                                                                      31%

  2015-16
  2013-14

  Business                                                                                2015-16        Business & Economics
                                                                                          2013-14        Education
  Engineering              Other includes Architecture and
                           Construction, Education, Health                                                                           Other includes
  Information Technology                                                                                 Engineering & Technology
                           and Medicine, Humanities, Law,                                                                            Humanities,
  Media & design           Natural & Physical Sciences,                                                  Other Social Sciences       Arts & Religion, Medical
                           Tourism and Hospitality along with                                                                        & Health Sciences,
  Other                    undeclared and foundation year                                                Other                       Natural Sciences

Sources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA), Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority (FCSA), Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD)

                                                                                                                                                      UAE Country Profile | 15
UAE leadership recognizes the need to move away from business and finance courses and focus more on
                   STEAM related subjects in preparation for a job market where technological disruption is underway and a
                   push to reduce the current dependency on government employment will increase the need for private sector
                   participation. Priority sectors identified as needed for the UAE’s future job market include:
                   • Energy and Petrochemicals
                   • Travel, Tourism and Hospitality
                   • Manufacturing
                   • Trade and Logistics
                   • Financial Services
                   • Technology, Media and Communications
                   • Construction*
                   The UAE’s national vision and major projects like the Expo 2020 are likely to influence a transition towards
                   specializations like Information Technology, the Sciences, Communication, Media and Design, alongside a
                   continued focus on engineering. However, to what extent and speed both the private universities and the
                   student population will respond is yet to be determined. Private universities are unlikely to be able to invest in
                   new programs with low initial student numbers, a gap that public universities might be expected to fill. Student
                   uptake of these programs may need a combination of a necessary shift in mindset, alongside a rapid shift in the
                   job market to supply new jobs that will encourage students to venture towards different specializations.

*The composition of the construction labor force is skewed towards lower skilled labor, and is dependent on the growth of other sectors, so is not considered a priority field for
student studies.
Sources: Knowledge and Human Development Authority, Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority (FCSA), Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi, British Council Future
Skills Report

                                                                                                                                                        UAE Country Profile | 16
Contact us
PwC works nationally and internationally in the education sector with governments, agencies and private sector organizations.
If you want to talk to our Middle East team of dedicated specialists who focus exclusively on the education sector, please get
in touch.

Sally Jeffery                               Roland Hancock                              Sara Marie
Partner                                     Senior Director                             Manager
E: sally.jeffery@pwc.com                    E: roland.hancock@pwc.com                   E: sara.marie@pwc.com

                                                                                                               UAE Country Profile | 17
At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. PwC is a network of firms in 158 countries with
over 250,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell
us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com/m1/en
Established in the Middle East for 40 years, PwC has firms in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman,
the Palestinian territories, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with around 4,000 people.(www.pwc.com/me).
This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional
advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice.
No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in
this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not
accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining
to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it.
© 2018 PwC. All rights reserved. ‘PwC’ refers to the PwC network and/or one of more of its member firms, each of which is
a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.
127066177
You can also read