"We haven't got a plan, so nothing can go wrong" - Politics and planning in transport
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“We haven’t got a plan,
so nothing can go wrong”
(Spike Milligan)
Politics and planning in transport
William McDougall
Smart Urban Futures Conference 2019Politics has trumped planning • Investment decisions now based on political promises • Decisions made first, business cases and EESs follow (‘sell jobs’) • No Victorian transport plan (contravenes TIA) • IV and IA have little influence – politicians ignore their advice, or use it selectively Main outcomes: red herrings, delays to critical actions, secrecy, misuse of public funds
All too many examples – and it’s not new Perth: Fremantle line (1980s), Metronet Sydney: WestConnex, Sydney Metro, North East line Melbourne: • East West Link • Melbourne Metro/Melbourne Rail Link • West Gate Tunnel • North East Link • Airport Rail (+ regional connections) • Suburban Rail Loop
Good economics is not a criterion Public transport • LXRP – 0.8 • LXRP+CPLU+MM – 0.9 • MM – 1.1 • Means that CPLU was 0.7. MM propping up worse projects? MM not justified? West Gate Tunnel • WGT + Monash Fwy Upgrade – 1.3 (I think 0.8) • WGT only – 1.1 (I think 0.7) • Monash upgrade – 4.2 (I think 2.6) East West Link: 0.8 (with optimism bias) But business cases are quickly forgotten, once they’ve served their purpose…
Forecast failures – Victoria in Future
• VIF always predicts low 160,000
Annual population growth, Victoria
140,000 Actual
• Only one series 120,000
VIF forecasts published in:
• Since 2004, has stopped 100,000 2016
2015
at 2031 80,000
2012
60,000
• Used for all transport 40,000
2008
2004
models and business 20,000 2000
case projections 0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
• AND 7% discount rate
Source: Updated from an original by Charter Keck Cramer, 2017
• Does not favour long
term projectsInfrastructure investment boom
Source: MacromonitorMajor Transport Infrastructure Projects - Australia
24
22
20
18
Value of work done per year ($B)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year ending June
Road Transit Freight Air naMajor Transport Infrastructure Projects - Australia
24
22
20
Non-capital city projects - stippled
18
Value of work done per year ($B)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year ending June
Road Transit Freight Air naMajor Transport Infrastructure Projects - Sydney
10
9
8
7
Value of work done per year ($B)
Metro W
6 Metro City & SW
N-
S Ra
5
il (
2n
Light Rail Syd
d
ney
air
G atew
po
4 Metro NW ay
rt)
W
Tun Har
nel b
We & B our
3 ster Lin each
x n Sy k es
C onne dne
th y Rd
Nor s
2
WestConnex
1 SW Rail
d M2, M5
Epping-Chatswoo Upgra
Sydney Clearways des
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year ending JuneMajor Transport Infrastructure Projects - Melbourne
10
9
8
7
Value of work done per year ($B)
6
5 Metro Rail Tunnel
L Crossing
4 Removals
Monash Fwy
3
North East Link
2
Outer Suburbs Arterials
ck
1 Regio b Do
n al Ra W eb
Eastlink il Lin West Gate Tunnel
Peninsula Link k g
nin
yL in k-T ulla Wide
0 C it
W Ring Road
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year ending JuneTravel in Melbourne today – my view
Daily trips in Melbourne 2016
18
Millions
16
14
12
10
84%
8
6
4
2 5%
11%
0
Commutes Other TOTAL
PT Active CarHeavy rail – the real mass transit
320,000 enter central Melbourne in morning peak, 2016
350,000
300,000 10%
250,000 18%
4%
200,000
16%
150,000
100,000
52%
50,000
0
Workers Students Total
Train Tram Bus Car ActiveAlternative land use futures
Land use strategies won't change city-wide travel much
30
Millions
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2016 M@8m BAU M@8m M@8m
Centralise Decentralise
PT Active CarAlternative land use futures
But peak trips to Inner Melbourne could change a lot
2.5
Millions
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2016 M@8m BAU M@8m M@8m
Centralise Decentralise
PT Active CarTransport futures • MUCH more mass transit • On-road PT networks also need dramatic expansion • Cycling and walking must be made safer, for a lot more people • Outer suburbs with 90% car use will not work • Autonomous vehicles – occupancy down, road capacity up • Ride and active transport sharing will come of age • Driverless transit will be much more efficient • Mass transit will be commercially viable
Strategic directions Develop meaningful targets: • Mobility kept at or above today’s levels as city grows • Zero emissions from city transport by 2050 • Zero fatalities as well • Mass & Active transport to take up majority of future growth • Mode share of M&A – more than 50% city-wide daily by 2050? What will be enough to keep road use manageable? How will road space be allocated between modes?
New planning approach • De-politicise once and for all • Link to decarbonisation and climate policies • Binding targets for mode shares and capacity • Revitalise Transport Integration Act and give it teeth • Connect transport planning to land use and growth • Re-think city land use and travel patterns • Incentivise and legislate for new technologies, business models • Require rolling 30-year strategies and 10-year investment plans • All logically prioritised using updated/improved methods • Every stage fully, independently audited and open to public scrutiny
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