What the new Government will mean for transport Cicero Group | July 2019
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What the new Government will mean for transport
Cicero Group | July 2019
Introduction
The Conservative leadership race has so far been Earlier this year Jeremy Hunt talked about the lessons
dominated by Brexit, with each candidate’s different that the UK could learn from Singapore in terms of
approaches to break the current impasse dominating investment in infrastructure. In recent weeks he has
early analysis of the race. also talked about the need to deliver investment in HS2
and rail links in the North.
As well as Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt replacing
Theresa May as Prime Minister, we are likely to see a Hunt has given his backing to the Power up the North
major Government reshuffle with a significant number of Campaign led by local papers in the North of England
cabinet ministers changing roles or leaving Government. calling for more investment in the North and the
This reshuffle is likely to include a new Secretary of State devolution of more powers. The campaign was also
for Transport. backed by Sajid Javid, talked about as a potential
future Chancellor, Michael Gove, Rory Stewart and
What have been the key transport promises so far? Esther McVey. Javid has gone further, suggesting that
the Government borrows up to £100 billion to deliver
During the race we have seen several commitments on investment in infrastructure in the North of England.
transport policy. The pledges made by the eventual
winner, currently looking likely to be Boris Johnson, will Another major theme of the race has been a
clearly have a huge influence on the approach taken by commitment to tackling climate change, with all the
the new Government. Ideas floated by other contenders candidates highlighting their green credentials. These
also matter, with many of the defeated candidates commitments and Theresa May’s decision to commit
expected to serve in the next Cabinet and the reason that the UK to delivering net zero carbon emissions by 2050
their ideas were put forward is that they resonate with a will have a significant impact on the future of transport
significant group of Conservative MPs and members. policy.
One of the key themes of the race has been the need Boris Johnson, who has in the past expressed scepticism
to move on from the period of austerity and deliver about the human impact on climate change, has more
significant new investment in infrastructure, with a focus recently expressed more green sentiments claiming that
on the North of England. At the launch of his campaign, the environment will be at the centre of his programme
Boris Johnson said: “I would like to be the Prime Minister and highlighting how during his period as Mayor of
who does for connectivity in the West Midlands and London the economy grew while CO2 emissions fell.
the northern Powerhouse what I did for London, with
Crossrail and with massive tube upgrades.”
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What transport policy issues will face the new Prime Minister?
Brexit is the issue which will dominate the first few commuter lines, perhaps balanced with support for
months in office, with both Johnson and Hunt saying more competition on long distance services.
that they want to keep the option of a ‘no deal’ exit on
the table. Johnson has said that he is planning to take
the UK out of the EU by the 31st October, even if a deal
hasn’t been agreed, meaning that the first weeks and
months of the new Government are likely to be focused
on no-deal preparation.
A no deal Brexit would have significant consequences for
cross-border transport services. Road transport links,
especially the Dover to Calais ferry link, are particularly
important in the transportation of goods between the
UK and the EU. A key priority for the new Transport
Secretary would therefore have to be planning to ensure
continued access to the EU for British hauliers and
mitigating any impact of boarder delays on goods being
transported to and from the continent.
Jeremy Hunt’s plan for a National Logistics Committee,
Is Heathrow Expansion in balance?
to sit in the Department of Transport tasked with
keeping goods flowing in and out of the UK in the event One area of transport policy that Boris Johnson has
of no deal, and possibly including emergency powers to taken a significant interest in is the future of airport
ensure ports and airports are running, underlines the expansion in the South East.
potential impact on transport of a no deal Brexit.
As Major of London, he proposed an alternative scheme
Given the heightened chance of a general election if the of a new airport in the Thames estuary and when he re-
future Prime Minister seeks to deliver a no deal Brexit entered Parliament, representing Uxbridge and South
against the will of Parliament, stepping up no deal Ruislip near the airport, he promised to “lie down in
preparation might be the only transport issues that the front of bulldozers” to stop the construction of the third
new Government has time to influence. runway going ahead at Heathrow.
If the parliament does run its course or Johnson or Hunt So, if he were to become Prime Minister might Boris
do call and win a general election, there are a number of Johnson scupper the current plans? The answer seems
significant transport policy decisions which will need to to be uncertain. He has expressed “grave concerns”
be taken by the new Prime Minster, including the future about the impact of expansion on noise and air pollution
of Heathrow expansion; addressing the future of HS2 and and said that he would take an interest in the legal
its rising costs; deciding on the future of rail investment challenges to the airport’s expansion. The most recent
in the North of England and the Northern Powerhouse applications for judicial review have been rejected, but
Rail proposals, and delivering the reshaping of the that decision is being appealed.
transport system which will be required to progress the
Government’s ambitious carbon reduction targets. That said, things have moved on since Johnson made
his promise to oppose Heathrow. Most importantly, the
The Williams Review on the future of the rail system is Parliamentary vote in favour of an extension was passed
likely to call for major reform of the current franchising with a huge majority 415 votes to 119, with the then
system, which has been the basis of rail for the 25 Foreign Secretary deciding to visit Afghanistan to avoid
years since privatisation. Any replacement of the the vote.
current system will reopen the debate about whether
privatisation has worked in the interests of passengers The strong parliamentary mandate for the National
and will provide an opening for the Labour Party to Planning Statement in favour of expansion means that
push its case for nationalisation. The Government’s any reverse of the Government’s current plans can’t be
response to the Williams Review could heavily influence a decision taken by the Prime Minister alone. Johnson
railway policy for years to come. Political pressure to has himself said at hustings meetings that Parliament
try and neutralise public support for nationalisation has now voted in favour of expansion. His campaign has
could lead to more intervention over services on key been clear that Boris’s alternative proposal when he was
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Mayor of a new airport in the Thames Estuary is off the the opportunity of a new Prime Minister to cancel it.
table. Others representing seats in the Midlands and the North
are strongly committed to the scheme’s future.
The project is unpopular amongst Conservative Party
members, with a recent poll by YouGov suggesting
On the current timetable, the
that 57 per cent of party members wanting the scheme
final decision on the Development scrapped, with 32 percent wanting it to go ahead.
Consent Order by the Secretary of
State for Transport is due in 2021. If Boris Johnson has so far held an ambiguous position on
the current parliament does run to HS2, mindful of its unpopularity amongst Conservative
2022 Johnson could be tempted to Party members. He has reportedly told hustings that
he thinks that the costs are spiralling out of control and
delay this final decision to after the he would commission former HS2 chairman Douglas
general election, especially given Oakervee to “have a look at the business case” and
the unpopularity of expansion in his “think about whether and how we proceed”. He has
constituency. spoken about the problems that the line creates for
his constituency in Uxbridge and South Ruislip despite
extensive tunnelling.
Any reversal of the Government’s current policy would He has, however, said that he is ‘worried’ about the
be more difficult because the DUP, on whose support impact of cancelling a major infrastructure project of
the Prime Minister currently depends on to deliver the this scale. Oakervee has in the past said that it would
Government a working majority, has been long term be “catastrophic for the UK” if HS2 was cancelled. The
supporters of extra capacity at Heathrow. vote due later this year on the notice to proceed, which
would unlock £27bn of funding to start construction on
This means that the most likely outcome would be the first phase, should be ‘D day’ for the scheme with a
for any Johnson-led Government to let the current final decision on its future and no further delay, Johnson
planning process and public inquiry run its cause. If the has said.
airport can deliver expansion plans while keeping to its
current air quality obligation and reducing the number The combination of the political impact of cancelling
of people affected by noise, Johnson might be able to the project and Johnson’s previous tendency as Mayor
argue that the concerns he had as Mayor of London have of London to support Grande Projects means that it is
been addressed. likely that the scheme would carry on.
One possible consequence of a Johnson-led Government It has been suggested that Johnson’s promised
could be further delay to the project. On the current Oakervee review could lead to a rephasing of the
timetable, the final decision on the Development delivery of the line. This could see the section from
Consent Order by the Secretary of State for Transport is London to Birmingham going ahead as planned, but
due in 2021. If the current parliament does run to 2022, some of phase 2b covering the links to Manchester and
Johnson could be tempted to delay this final decision Leeds being delivered earlier than planned as part of the
to after the general election, especially given the promised investment in the Northern Powerhouse Rail
unpopularity of expansion in his constituency. enhancements. It has also been suggested that a new
approach could lead to a rebranding of the project to the
Jeremy Hunt has been a consistent supporter of north of Birmingham.
Heathrow expansion. As a Cabinet Minister he supported
the Government’s policy, but he has recently highlighted In contrast, Jeremy Hunt has expressed enthusiastic
his personal support for expansion, for example, support for HS2. He tweeted in May that post-Brexit
tweeting about the advantages to the Scottish economy politiicans must be ambitious for our country and
from Heathrow expansion on a recent campaign trip. “hungry” for our economy. ”What signal would it send
if we cancelled our highest profile infrastructure project
and weakened our commitment to share prosperity
What future for HS2? around the country?”, he argued.
There has also been debate about the future of HS2
during the leadership race. Some Conservative MPs are
strongly opposed to the scheme and would like to use
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Investment in the North of England net zero emission by 2050, with Jeremy Hunt writing
about how climate change should be one key area in
which the UK can take global leadership post-Brexit.
The one area where there has been unanimity
throughout the contest has been on the need for more Boris Johnson has a history of expressing support for the
transport investment in the North. Jeremy Hunt has ideas of Piers Corbyn, the brother of Jeremy Corbyn who
shown his support for the Power up the North campaign is a climate change sceptic. Johnson has more recently
run by local newspaper groups across the North of spoken about how his concern about climate change
England, calling for the devolution of further powers, has increased since he has become older and he praised
and more investment in road and rail links, including the motivations of the Extinction Rebellion protesters,
a commitment to making Transport for the North’s while arguing that their methods where misguided and
Northern Powerhouse Rail plans a national priority. that the focus of protests should be on countries like
China where emissions were increasing.
Boris Johnson didn’t pledge his support for the
campaign, but has signalled his strong support for the
delivery of Northern Powerhouse Rail, the proposed In 2016 we were told that the
major investment in improved rail links across the North money [£100bn] would be invested
of England. He told a recent hustings event “I want to
be the Prime Minister who does Northern Powerhouse
in projects like Crossrail 2. This time
Rail.” around we were told that it would
be invested in better transport
As well as his commitment to supporting better rail links and housing in the North of
connectivity in the North and the West Midlands made England.
at the launch of his campaign, Johnson has called for
more powers in areas such as transport to be devolved
to the regions.
London
Johnson has spoken recently about the need for local
government to ‘take back control’ suggesting the need An issue where focus has been lacking during the race
for significant fiscal devolution to cities across the UK. has been transport investment in the capital. It is
telling that the £100bn of borrowing to invest which was
promoted by Sajid Javid during his run for the leadership
De carbonisation was a repeat of a pledge he made during his joint run for
the leadership with Stephen Crabb in 2016. In 2016 we
The environment has been a one of the key themes of were told that the money would be invested in projects
the leadership race. Almost all the 11 original candidates like Crossrail 2. This time around we were told that it
made the environment one of their key pledges. For would be invested in better transport links and housing
example, before he was ejected from the race, Sajid in the North of England.
Javid spoke about the need to consider climate change
as a big a threat to the UK as terrorism, while Michael The number of marginal seats in the North and the
Gove spoke about the urgency of taking action against Midlands and the sense that the Brexit vote was as much
climate change. about communities that felt left behind by economic
change as opposition to the EU has made the future of
the North one of the key topics of the race.
Crossrail 2, which until recently was regarded as a
key political priority, was praised by Boris Johnson at
one hustings meeting, but it has otherwise not been
mentioned.
The eventual opening of the delayed and over budget
Elizabeth Line might refocus attention on the importance
of infrastructure in the capital to growth in London and
across the UK. The focus on investment in the North
during the leadership race, highlights a growing anti-
metropolitan political sentiment and therefore the
Both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt have said that challenge that the capital faces in making its case for
they agree with the new Government target to deliver investment infrastructure in post-Brexit Britain.
cicero-group.com Cicero Group | 4Conclusion
Brexit is likely to dominate the first weeks and months The consensus on the need for more transport
of the new Government. As this paper points out, if the investment in the North, the likelihood of spending on
new Prime Minister either chooses an early election or is HS2 and Heathrow’s expansion plans being approved
forced into one, Brexit planning might be the only area in (albeit grudging from a Prime Minister Johnson) and the
which the new Prime Minster is able to make any impact delivery of the Government’s 2050 carbon target could
on transport policy before a general election. If Johnson lead to a new era of policy change and partnership
or Hunt can deliver a new Brexit deal and move the between Government and industry to deliver investment.
agenda on to domestic priorities, there is the possibility
of a new era of transport investment and innovation.
Get in touch
If you would like to speak to the Cicero team about this report, or how we can help support your organisation
with your public affairs or communications needs please contact Andrew Smith:
Andrew Smith
Director - London
Andrew.Smith@cicero-group.com
+44 (0)20 3397 0106
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