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NorwayWorld Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017 | 3
Introduction Effective Yields
This yield is derived by capitalising current market rents
(Net Effective) against current capital values for office
buildings. The Net Effective rent is the rent payable by the
tenant excluding both statutory and operating outgoings
With investment capital becoming more global in its search (recoverables) and excludes the value of any incentive
for returns and diversification, the need for a standardised set paid to the tenant by way of fitout, cash, rental rebate or
of indicators to make sense of opportunities, risk and return rent free. The capital value is calculated to be for the office
expectations has become critical. component only and excludes retail, excess car parking,
signage, storage and other ‘non-office’ sources of income.
The Savills/Deakin University World Office Yield Spectrum
is designed to fill a void in market knowledge.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
For too long the global property investment community has
been denied a credible, factual yields series which can be (WACC)
reliably used to compare ‘apples with apples.’ This unique The WACC is derived by having reference to the rents
global publication is the culmination of substantial work by described above, the rental growth outlook and the
dozens of researchers in the international Savills team. management fee recoverable from owning the building
Savills Research trusts you find this body of work useful, (in sum a proxy for equity) and the current cost of debt.
illuminating and of value to you in your endeavours. Using a 30 percent/70 percent equity/debt split, a WACC
As always your thoughts, feedback and ideas are most is calculated.
welcome. Please feel free to contact your Savills
representative with regard to this publication. Accretive Premiums
By subtracting the effective and market yields derived above
from the WACC we can calculate the ‘accretion’ inherent in
Methodology each market using the metrics as described.
Market Risk Premiums
Having reference to the market yield calculated above
we subtract the risk free rate (10 year bond) then add
Market Yields the expected annual income growth rate to establish
the ‘expected return for risk.’
This yield is derived by capitalising current market rents
(Net Face) against current capital values for office buildings.
The Net Face rent is the rent payable by the tenant excluding Effective Risk Premiums
both statutory and operating outgoings (recoverables) and Having reference to the effective yield calculated above
includes the value of any incentive paid to the tenant by way we take that yield, subtract the risk free rate (10 year bond)
of fitout, cash, rental rebate or rent free. The capital value is then add the expected annual income growth rate to
calculated to be for the office component only and excludes establish the ‘expected return for risk.’
retail, excess car parking, signage, storage and other
“non-office” sources of income.4 | World Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017
World Cities
Expectations of higher
interest rates have
remained just that,
expectations. Uneven
economic data as well as
rising geo-political tensions
have combined to create an
unstable environment for
rate increases.
Looking at the market over the next six months, a healthy deal
pipeline and plenty of momentum suggest that real estate has
not fallen out of favour as an asset class.
While prices remain generally high or continue to rise, however,
volumes have softened as willing sellers are currently thin on
the ground and potential purchasers balk at high valuations.
We continue to believe that there is no shortage of capital out
there and sovereign funds and institutions continue to raise
their allocations to real estate, in some cases from single to
double digits. Chinese capital meanwhile is becoming more
selective.
With treasuries set to continue to underperform, real estate
will remain a popular investment class and today’s low yielding
environment should therefore persist. Should interest rates
rise without being underpinned by strong growth (higher rental
income), however, current yield levels would quickly look
unsustainable.
Investment strategies are being influenced by opportunities
being presented by digital disruption as well as demographic
trends such as aging populations, urbanization and the rise of
the millennial generation. Technology meanwhile continues to
defy traditional definitions of real estate use as, for example,
the difference between living and working environments and
traditional bricks and mortar retail and logistics become less
clear cut.World Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017 | 5
World Office
World Office CBD Grade
CBD A Market
Grade Yields
A Market (percent)
Yields (%) byby Region
Region and and
City City
June 2017 Jun-17
10%
Australia/NZ
9%
Asia
8%
Europe
7%
United States
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Source: Savills Research
World Office
World Office CBD Grade A Effective Yields (percent) by Region and City
CBD Grade A Effective Yields (%) by Region and City
June 2017 Jun-17
9%
Australia/NZ
8%
Asia
7%
Europe
6%
United States
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Source: Savills Research
Simon Smith
Senior Director – Research Asia Pacific
+852 2842 4573
ssmith@savills.com.hk6 | World Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017
World Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017 | 7
World Cities/CBD/Grade A Office
Market Yields June 2017 Effective Yields June 2017
10% 10%
8% 8%
6% 6%
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
Market Risk Premium June 2017 Effective Risk Premium June 2017
6% 6%
5% 5%
4% 4%
3% 3%
2% 2%
1% 1%
0% 0%
-1%
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
Market Yield Change January 2017 – June 2017 Effective Yield Change January 2017 – June 2017
1.0% 1.0%
0.5% 0.5%
0.0% 0.0%
-0.5% -0.5%
-1.0% -1.0%
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research8 | World Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017
Asia
Asian office markets reflect qualitative easing rather than
For three years running, economic fundamentals, looking ahead, we would pay
attention to the impact of volatile swings in global capital flows
optimism has dominated and currency movements once the interest rate environment
begins to normalize.
the Asian office sector
Asian Office Property Sales (US$ million)
as cheap money has June 2007 – June 2017 Asian Office
Office Property Sales (US$m)
Sep-07 to Jun-17
continued to flood local
$30,000
$25,000
markets and rents and $20,000
$15,000
capital values have $10,000
$5,000
continued to rise across the $0
region. Source: RCA/Savills Research
Source: RCA/Savills Research
The increasing capital inflows have resulted in cap rate
compression to decade lows but buoyant demand has
Asian Office Property Buyer Profile
inevitably lead to more new prime office completions and Asian Office
vacancy rates are finally beginning to creep up.
6 months to June 2017
Office Property Buyer Profile (%)
6 months to Jun-17
Investors have generally adopted a positive outlook for local REIT/Listed
13%
office markets, their confidence bolstered by strong economic Institutional
Private
growth expectations. The most active markets have been 20%
2%
China, followed by Japan and Hong Kong. However, limited Government
stock available for sale in prime areas has meant that investors 3%
User/Other
have increasingly turned their attention to development 4%
projects in secondary locations. Consequently, transaction
volumes of income producing assets have dropped Owner Occupier
20%
significantly and are unlikely to revert in the short term. Cross-Border
40%
Overseas investors’ transaction volumes increased by between
1% and 39% in 1H/2017 compared with 1H/2016, remaining
in positive territory. The global search for yield has traditionally
Source: RCA/Savills Research
been one of the main reasons behind investment in the Asia
Pacific office sector and China has remained a top pick for
overseas investors given the market’s size and importance for
any truly global asset manager.
Regarding Asia Pacific outbound investment in the office
market, three major capital sources have proved dominant;
Hong Kong; China; and South Korea. The UK was the most Simon Smith
attractive destination for Asian investors (despite the risks of Senior Director – Research Asia Pacific
Brexit) due to a weak pound, followed by the US. +852 2842 4573
While there is a long term argument that asset values in the ssmith@savills.com.hkWorld Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017 | 9
Asia/CBD/Grade A Office
Market Yields June 2017 Effective Yields June 2017
12% 12%
10% 10%
8% 8%
6% 6%
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
Market Risk Premium June 2017 Effective Risk Premium June 2017
6% 6%
5% 5%
4% 4%
3% 3%
2% 2%
1% 1%
0% 0%
-1%
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
World Office World Office
Market YieldAsian
Change January
CBD Grade 2017
A Market Yield – June
Change (%) 2017 Effective Yield
AsianChange
CBD Grade AJanuary 2017
Effective Yield – June
Change (%) 2017
Jun-16 to Dec-16 Jun-16 to Dec-16
1.0% 1.0%
0.5% 0.5%
0.0% 0.0%
-0.5% -0.5%
-1.0% -1.0%
-1.5% -1.5%
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research10 | World Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017
UK/Europe
Europe and UK Office Property Sales (€ million)
Our projection for the total December 2007 – June 2017
Europe and UK Office
Office Property Sales (€m)
Dec-07 to Jun-17
investment volume is that
300,000 €
250,000 €
it will remain broadly in 200,000 €
150,000 €
line with last year’s levels, 100,000 €
potentially 5-10% lower, in
50,000 €
0€
the region of €200bn. Source:
Source: RCA/Savills Research
RCA/Savills Research
With the threat of anti-EU parties alienated, the downside
risks to the European economy are considered marginal. Total
commercial investment activity in Q1 2017 was in the region of Europe and UK OfficeEuropeProperty Buyer Profile
and UK Office
€44.5m, in line with the same quarter last year but 37% below 6 months to June 2017
Office Property Buyer Profile (%)
6 months to 2017
Q4 2016. The share of the core markets dropped further from REIT/Listed
19%
66.6% last year to 65.1%, compared to 70% in 2007. This
is the result of the high liquidity, which has spread beyond
the core markets where the supply of quality product has
become limited. Rising cross border investor interest in Nordic
countries and the high volume of cross border investment in Private/Unlisted
Germany, France, Italy and the UK have squeezed the share of 21%
domestic investment. In Q1 2017 the average European prime Institutional
CBD office yield dropped for the first time on record just below 55%
4%. We expect the average CBD office yield to remain slightly User/Other
below 4.0% during the course of the year. Less prospects for Unknown
3%
capital gains has shifted investor focus on income. In the office 2%
sector good fundamentals shaped by economic resilience,
demand for quality space and restricted development pipeline Source: RCA/Savills Research
support a positive outlook for prime values in the CBD
locations. Our forecast for the average annual rental growth at
the end of 2017 is 3.6%, driven by Oslo (28.2%), Stockholm
(8.3%), Amsterdam (8.0%) and Paris CBD (7.6%).
Lydia Brissy
Director – Research Europe
+33 1 44 51 73 88
lbrissy@savills.comWorld Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017 | 11
Europe/CBD/Grade A Office
Market Yields June 2017 Effective Yields June 2017
10% 10%
8% 8%
6% 6%
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
World Office World Office
Market Risk Premium
European June
CBD Grade 2017
A Market Risk Premium (%) Effective Risk Premium
European June
CBD Grade A 2017
Effective Risk Premium (%)
Jun-17 Jun-17
6% 6%
5% 5%
4% 4%
3% 3%
2% 2%
1% 1%
0% 0%
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
Market Yield Change January 2017 – June 2017 Effective Yield ChangeWorld January
Office 2017 – June 2017
European CBD Grade A Effective Yield Change (%)
Jun-16 to Dec-16
1.0% 1.0%
0.5% 0.5%
0.0% 0.0%
-0.5% -0.5%
-1.0% -1.0%
Source: Savills Research Source:
Source: Savills
Savills Research
Research12 | World Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017
United States
rearview mirror for most markets. Some office and industrial
The U.S. economy posted markets seem to have more room for growth, though. This
includes many of the top tech markets – Silicon Valley, Seattle
its 81st consecutive month and Boston. These markets have punched through the IPO
contraction and devaluation of 2016. Assets in these core
tech markets are priced to perfection, though, with cap rates
of private sector job gains consistently under 6.0% and pricing generally exceeding $400/
sf. Sunbelt markets such as Dallas/Fort Worth, Atlanta and
Phoenix have a bit more life in terms of rental rate growth, and
during June – the longest cap rates for most assets are 150 to 250 basis points higher
with pricing typically under $300/sf.
stretch of gains on record.
Employers in many different United States Office Property Sales (US$ million)
June 2007 – June 2017
industries and cities cite $140,000
$120,000
talent shortfalls as their
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
biggest challenge. $40,000
$20,000
$0
Similarly, investors face difficulty finding enough quality assets
to purchase. Based on sales through May, commercial
property sales in the U.S. totalled $154.9 billion, down by
Source: RCA/Savills Research
15.0% year-on-year. Transaction activity has declined 12 of
the last 16 months. So far, this still appears to be primarily a
supply shortfall. Even as volume has declined, pricing has not
dropped. United States Office Property Buyer Profile
United States Office
Calendar year to May 2017
Office Property Buyer Profile (%)
Demand for assets remains strong, but many investors have Year to May-17
become increasingly discerning. More buyers are steering clear
of sub-4.0% cap rates in gateway markets such as New York
City and San Francisco. Buyers continue to push to secondary Private Investor
39%
markets and niche assets, however; there are only so many
institutional-grade assets in Austin, Nashville or similar cities. Foreign Investor
22%
Far fewer entity-level and portfolio sales have been completed,
particularly in the industrial and multi-family sectors. Some
buyers are stepping well outside of their comfort zone as they
try to diversify. Blackstone, for example paid $745 million for
Owner Occupier
3,400 senior housing units from Welltower and $1.1 billion for 7%
64 properties operated by Brookdale Senior Housing. Fund Undisclosed
1%
26% Trust
5%
Chicago is a good example of how the dropoff in volume is
tied to a winnowing of quality assets. Many of its trophy towers Source: RCA/Savills Research
were sold in 2014 and 2015. Office property sales have shifted
to value-add assets. These buildings could have a strong Keith DeCoster
upside for owners that invest in capital improvements and Director, US Real Estate Analytics
assuming that demand holds up in this market.
+1 (212) 326 1023
The steepest part of the cycle in terms of NOI growth is in the
kdecoster@savills-studley.comWorld Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017 | 13 United States/CBD/Grade A Office Market Yields June 2017 Effective Yields June 2017 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research Market Risk Premium June 2017 Effective Risk Premium June 2017 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research Market Yield Change January 2017 – June 2017 Effective Yield Change January 2017 – June 2017 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% -1.0% -1.0% Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
14 | World Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017
Australia/New Zealand
Office Property Sales (AU$ million)
Whilst appetite for June 2007 – June 2017Australian Office
Office Property Sales (AU$m)
Jun-07 to Jun-17
Australian commercial
$20,000
$18,000
$16,000
property remains strong,
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
diminishing supply weighed
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
on investment volumes in $2,000
$0
FY-17 Source:
Source: Savills
Savills Research
Research
Australian performance drives overseas investor activity in
FY-17 Office Property Buyer Profile
Australian Office
Office Property Buyer Profile (%)
12 months to June 2017 months to Jun-17
12
Savills recorded $15.1bn of major office sales over FY-17,
which while down on the record set in FY-16, was over
50% higher than the 10 year average of circa $10bn. Foreign Investor
50%
The standout statistic was the high proportion of overseas
buyers that represented 50% of acquisition volume for the Syndicate
1%
year, although domestic demand remained evident with Owner Occupier
Government
3%
Dexus concluding the largest acquisition with $722.6m for 2%
Developer
50% of Sydney’s MLC Centre. 5%
Private Investor
Clear bias from overseas investors was shown for the Trust Other
8%
strongly performing markets of Melbourne and especially 13% 2%
Fund
Sydney, where a tight leasing market, due to material stock 16%
withdrawals, drove effective rental growth upward of 35%
Source: Savills Research
in Grade A stock. However with tightening yield and IRR
hurdles, as the industry continues to adjust to a 10yr Bond
Rate at sub 3.0%, capital growth was evident across the
country.
FY-17 may also be remembered as the year the two-
speed nature of the Australian economy and property
markets began to normalise. While a number of economic
indicators have heavily favoured NSW and Victoria over
recent years, strong growth in corporate revenues for the
mining sector, and a trend toward tenant re-centralisation,
led to positive net absorption results across both the
Brisbane and Perth; with those two markets also recording
meaningful declines in vacancy.
As such, a number of domestic investors have focused on Chris Freeman
counter-cyclical opportunities, although Sydney still looks National Head, Capital Strategy
attractive due to low upcoming supply, while Melbourne’s +61 (0) 2 8215 6093
economic outlook and demand drivers now lead the nation.
cfreeman@savills.com.auWorld Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017 | 15
Australia/New Zealand/CBD/Grade A Office
World Office World Office
Market Yields JuneZealand
Australia/New 2017 CBD Grade A Market Yields (%) EffectiveAustralia/New
Yields June 2017
Zealand CBD Grade A Effective Yields (%)
Jun-17 Jun-17
10% 10%
8% 8%
6% 6%
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
World Office World Office
MarketAustralia/New
Risk Premium June
Zealand CBD 2017
Grade A Market Risk Premium (%) Effective Risk Premium
Australia/New JuneA 2017
Zealand CBD Grade Effective Risk Premium (%)
Jun-17 Jun-17
6% 6%
5% 5%
4% 4%
3% 3%
2% 2%
1% 1%
0% 0%
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
Market Yield Change June 2016 – December 2016
World Office Effective Yield ChangeWorld
June 2016 – December 2016
Office
Australia/New Zealand CBD Grade A Market Yield Change (%) Australia/New Zealand CBD Grade A Effective Yield Change (%)
Jun-16 to Dec-16 Jun-16 to Dec-16
1.0% 1.0%
0.5% 0.5%
0.0% 0.0%
-0.5% -0.5%
-1.0% -1.0%
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills Research
Source: Savills Research Source: Savills ResearchWorld Office Yield Spectrum 2H/2017 | 17
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