Q4FY21: Result Preview - SECTOR UPDATE - Edelweiss
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India Equity Research Media April 9, 2021
Q4FY21: Result Preview
SECTOR UPDATE
Braving headwinds
For media at large, Q4FY21 began on a positive note with some movie
releases and steady advertising. Television ad demand increased
modestly and would help broadcasters record a decent quarter. We
expect revenues for ZEEL and Sun TV to grow 4.9% YoY and 7.5% YoY,
respectively. Multiplexes logged a QoQ uptick in footfall, and we
expect PVR and INOX to post revenues of INR1.5bn (-76.7% YoY) and
INR820mn (-77.9% YoY), respectively. However, overall occupancy
remains low and would lead to EBITDA loss.
Uncertainties over movie releases and the spike in covid-19 cases
would blight multiplexes’ prospects in the near term. Our top picks are
Sun TV and ZEEL.
Broadcasters: Modest performance
With the advertising environment improving sequentially, we estimate ZEEL’s ad
revenue would grow ~6% YoY and subscription revenue would grow ~12% YoY
owing to modest digital subscription growth and absence of music revenue in base.
Overall, we expect modest revenue growth of 4.9% YoY, along with a 25.8% EBITDA
margin for Q4FY21. We expect SUN TV's ad revenue to remain flat YoY as local
advertising remains weak (9.4% YoY dip in Q3FY21) along with 9% YoY subscription
growth led by an 8% uptick in the DTH segment. Overall, for Sun TV, we expect
revenue to grow by ~7.5% YoY along with a marginal EBITDA decline of ~-1.1% YoY
Multiplexes: Occupancy and movie delay woes
The spurt in covid-19 cases in pockets towards the end of Q4FY21 has further hurt
occupancy for the quarter, which began on a good note with a decent response to
movies such as Master and Roohi. There were delays in release of some major films
due to the 50% occupancy cap in the quarter initially. Footfall mostly picked up in
south as regional releases garnered a better response. But with overall occupancy
low and scanty releases, we expect revenue to slide -76.7% YoY for PVR and -77.9%
YoY for INOX, respectively. Similarly, we expect them to report EBITDA losses of
~INR604mn and ~INR695mn, respectively
Outlook: Broadcasters likely to fare much better in near term
We expect broadcasters to fare much better than multiplexes in the near term. With
covid-19 cases increasing across the country, we expect footfalls in multiplexes to
be abysmal, not to mention scanty movie releases. Meanwhile, producers are likely
to hold back on releases, leading to further content supply risk. In addition,
uncertainty over rental payments for FY22 remains an overhang. Factoring the
above, we revise down FY22E revenue/EBITDA 45%/58.9% for PVR and 45%/55%
for INOX. On the other hand, broadcasters are likely to benefit from advertising
aggression by FMCG and e-commerce businesses. With lockdown being imposed in
pockets, TV viewership is also likely to increase. We expect the ad environment to
improve over coming quarters owing to higher advertising demand (IPL, summer
season, lockdowns) and improving ad rates. Our top picks are SUN TV and ZEEL.
Abneesh Roy Prateek Barsagade
+91 (22) 6620 3141 +91 (22) 4063 5407
Abneesh.Roy@edelweissfin.com Prateek.Barsagade@edelweissfin.com
Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities LimitedQ4FY21: Result Preview
Q4FY21 Media results preview snapshot
Stock (INR mn) Q1FY21E Q1FY20 YoY (%) Q4FY20 QoQ (%)
ZEE Revenue 20,460 19,511 4.9 27,294 (25.0)
EBITDA 5,279 (2,839) NM 7,157 (26.2)
Adjusted Profit 3,657 (4,093) NM 4,579 (20.1)
Other income 300 407 276
Tax 1,232 (372) 1,937
EBITDA margin (%) 25.8 (14.5) 26.2
Sun TV Revenue 7,900 7,352 7.5 9,723 (18.8)
EBITDA 5,325 5,035 5.8 6,007 (11.4)
Adjusted Profit 3,635 2,500 45.4 4,418 (17.7)
Other income 550 570 621
Tax 1,225 759 1,508
EBITDA margin (%) 67.4 68.5 61.8
PVR Revenue 1,500 6,451 (76.7) 454 230.4
EBITDA (695) 1,727 NM (781) NM
Reported Profit (3,025) (746) NM (488) NM
Other income 350 167 2,747
Tax - 44 (241)
EBITDA margin (%) (46.3) 26.8 (172.1)
INOX Leisure Revenue 820 3,716 (77.9) 149 451.1
EBITDA (604) 1,100 NM (645) NM
Reported Profit (1,649.4) (821.5) NM (1,025.0) NM
Other income 300 48 607
Tax - 615 (343)
EBITDA margin (%) (73.7) 29.6 (433.7)
Source: Edelweiss Research
2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities LimitedQ4FY21: Result Preview
ZEE Entertainment Enterprise
With advertising demand improving sequentially, we expect Q4FY21 to be a decent
quarter for ZEE Entertainment, primarily led by improving ad rates and volumes.
Though market share improved for Hindi GEC, loss of share in markets such as
Marathi, Bangla and Tamil could prompt a change in the programming strategy.
For Q4FY21, we expect advertising revenues to increase ~6% YoY, riding the broad-
based economic recovery and resumption of television viewership across markets.
We expect subscription revenue to grow ~12% owing to modest growth in
linear/digital subscription and impact from absence of music business revenue in the
base. Programming cost is likely to inch up given the resumption in programming
and introduction of new shows. Overall, we expect 4.9% YoY revenue growth for
Q4FY21, along with a 25.8% EBITDA margin for the quarter.
ZEEL | Q4FY21 result preview
(INR mn) Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%)
Revenue 20,460 19,511 4.9 27,294 (25.0)
EBITDA 5,279 (2,839) NM 7,157 (26.2)
Adjusted Profit 3,657 (4,093) NM 4,579 (20.1)
Other income 300 407 276
Tax 1,232 (372) 1,937
EBITDA margin (%) 25.8 (14.5) 26.2
Source: Edelweiss Research
Zee entertainment | Trends at a glance
ZEEL Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21E
EBITDA margin% 31.9 34.2 34.8 28.1 32.9 32.7 27.6 (14.5) 16.8 18.1 26.7 25.8
Ad revenue growth% 18.6 22.7 21.7 16.0 3.6 1.2 (15.8) (14.7) (64.5) (26.3) 4.0 6.0
Subscription revenue growth % 12.2 26.0 28.6 3.9 46.8 26.8 21.7 40.7 6.2 11.0 15.0 12.0
Source: Edelweiss Research
Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 3Q4FY21: Result Preview
Sun TV Network
We expect SUN TV Network to register a modest performance in Q4FY21. Given the
challenges to ad revenues from local advertising and aggression by other television
broadcasters in key markets, we expect SUN TV's ad revenues to remain flat YoY
(9.4% YoY dip in Q3FY21). For subscription, we expect SUN TV to register 9% YoY
growth led by an 8% uptick in DTH subscription revenue.
In absence of any movie releases or the IPL tournament during the quarter, we
expect margins to improve sequentially. Overall, we expect SUN TV's revenue
growth to be broadly 7.5% YoY along with a marginal YoY decline in EBITDA and YoY
growth of 45.4% in PAT (primarily owing to high amortisation charge in the base).
Sun TV Network | Q4FY21 result preview
(INR mn) Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%)
Revenue 7,900 7,352 7.5 9,723 (18.8)
EBITDA 5,325 5,035 5.8 6,007 (11.4)
Adjusted Profit 3,635 2,500 45.4 4,418 (17.7)
Other income 550 570 621
Tax 1,225 759 1,508
EBITDA margin (%) 67.4 68.5 61.8
Source: Edelweiss Research
Sun TV | Trends at a glance
Sun TV Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21E
EBITDA margin% 65.6 73.9 73.8 68.4 62.0 58.9 71.2 68.5 68.7 66.4 62.3 67.4
Ad revenue growth% 18.6 22.7 21.7 16.0 3.6 1.2 (15.8) (14.7) (64.5) (26.3) 4.0 0.5
Subscription revenue growth% 15.3 22.2 24.1 1.7 27.2 16.8 17.7 26.8 17.7 7.6 4.2 9.0
Source: Edelweiss Research
4 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities LimitedQ4FY21: Result Preview
PVR
While cinemas remained open for business through the quarter, scanty movie
releases and rising Covid cases in pockets proved to be a dampner for multiplexes.
Occupancy, though improving substantially over the previous quarter, continued to
be much below than the pre-Covid normal. Some national releases evinced a modest
response, but regional movies saw better participation, especially in southern India,
leading to sequential improvement in ATP and SPH for the quarter for PVR. Given
low occupancy rates and negligible advertising revenue, we expect PVR to register
an EBITDA loss for Q4FY21 as well. Overall we expect PVR to report ~INR1,500mn in
revenue along with an EBITDA loss of ~INR6,954mn in Q4FY21.
PVR | Q4FY21 result preview
(INR mn) Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%)
Revenue 1,500 6,451 (76.7) 454 230.4
EBITDA (695) 1,727 NM (781) NM
Reported Profit (3,025) (746) NM (488) NM
Other income 350 167 2,747
Tax - 44 (241)
EBITDA margin (%) (46.3) 26.8 (172.1)
Source: Edelweiss Research
Furthermore, factoring in the loss of business for two months, impact of fixed cost,
customers’ hesitance to visit malls/multiplexes in the initial phase and potential
bunching of movie releases, we have cut FY22E revenue and EBITDA by 45% and
58.9% respectively.
PVR | Estimates revision
FY20 YTD21 FY21E FY22E FY23E
(INR mn)
Actual Actual Previous Revised % change Previous Revised % change Previous Revised % change
Revenue 34,144 986 4,158 2,486 (40.2) 35,033 19,268 (45.0) 42,268 42,268 -
growth (%) 11% -91.9 -78.1 -86.9 1564.3 674.7 20.7 192.3
EBITDA 10,766 (2,809) (2,940) (3,504) NM 12,280 5,053 (58.9) 14,878 14,878 -
growth (%) 84% -232.6 -117.0 -158.7 -1308.7 -244.2 21.2 257.6
PAT 264 (4,613) (7,462) (9,027) NM 980 (4,427) NM 2,299 2,299 -
Source: Edelweiss Research
PVR | Trends at a glance
PVR Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21E
EBITDA margin% 19.7 17.5 19.5 19.2 31.6 32.7 33.6 26.8 NM NM NM NM
Ad revenue Growth% 6.5 13.2 28.9 22.4 27.6 15.6 9.1 (22.0) NM NM NM NM
Source: Edelweiss Research
Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 5Q4FY21: Result Preview
INOX Leisure
While cinemas remained open for business through the quarter, scanty movie
releases and rising Covid cases in pockets proved to be a dampner for multiplexes.
Occupancy, though improving substantially over the previous quarter, continued to
be much below than the pre-Covid normal. Some national releases evinced a modest
response, but regional movies saw better participation, especially in southern India,
leading to a sequential uptick in ATP and SPH for Q4FY21. Given sub-optimal
occupancy rates and negligible advertising revenue, we expect INOX to register an
EBITDA loss for Q4FY21 as well. Overall we expect INOX to report ~INR820mn in
revenue along with an EBITDA loss of ~INR604mn in Q4FY21.
INOX Leisure | Q4FY21 result preview
Q4FY21E Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%)
Revenue 820 3,716 (77.9) 149 451.1
EBITDA (604) 1,100 NM (645) NM
Reported Profit (1,649) (822) NM (1,025) NM
Other income 300 48 607
Tax - 615 (343)
EBITDA margin (%) (73.7) 29.6 (433.7)
Source: Edelweiss Research
Furthermore, factoring in continued headwinds such as loss of business for two
months, impact of fixed cost, and customers’ hesitance to visit malls/multiplexes in
the initial phase, we are cutting FY22E revenue and EBITDA by 45% and 55%
respectively.
INOX Leisure | Estimates revision
FY20 YTD21 FY21E FY22E FY23E
(INR mn)
Actual Actual Previous Revised % change Previous Revised % change Previous Revised % change
Revenue 18,974 155 2,165 975 (53.7) 19,249 10,587 (45.0) 21,323 21,323 -
growth (%) 12% -98.7 -88.6 -94.9 814.4 788.0 10.8 146.3
EBITDA 5,968 (1,322) (1,006) (1,926) NM 6,372 2,870 (55.0) 7,085 7,085 -
growth (%) 93% -162.4 -117.0 -132.3 -727.2 -249.0 11.2 247.1
PAT 150 (2,440) (4,039) (4,189) NM 600 (2700) NM 838 838 -
Source: Edelweiss Research
INOX Leisure | Trends at a glance
INOX Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21E
EBITDA margin% 20.1 12.3 19.3 20.3 30.4 32.3 32.9 29.6 NM NM NM NM
Ad revenue growth% 19.8 17.8 38.2 28.4 17.1 5.8 2.2 (19.8) NM NM NM NM
Source: Edelweiss Research
6 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities LimitedQ4FY21: Result Preview
Rental agreement negotiations
With footfalls at multiplexes far below pre-covid levels and a surge in covid cases
being reported in pockets, particularly in bigger cities, multiplexes will face uncertain
cash flows going ahead. Up until now, rental agreements had been renegotiated,
which allowed multiplexes a breather in the present rough weather. But, landlords
may be running out of patience/financial tolerance after taking a hit for the whole
year. Landlords could lean towards higher revenue share in future agreements. We
continue to await more clarity from multiplex players.
Possible movie release delays
Despite many states now allowing 100% occupancy, overall occupancy and footfalls
have been far lower than pre-Covid levels and remained very low during the quarter.
There were few major releases: Roohi and Master. But most other movies received
less than enthusiastic response.
The inertia in footfalls has been further aggravated by increasing Covid cases in big
cities towards the quarter-end. This may result in caps by states. This has also led to
some major movies being postponed such as Sooryavanshi and Bunti aur Babli 2.
Some highly anticipated Hollywood productions such as Black Widow and Eternals
have been postponed. Given there is not much improvement in occupancy and Covid
caseload, It is likely that other major releases in the coming quarter could get
postponed. This can bunch up movie releases, which would further affect box office
collections.
Release dates and status of movies
Movie Date Status
Roohi 11-Mar-21 Released
Time To Dance 12-Mar-21 Released
Fauji Calling 12-Mar-21 Released
Mumbai Saga 19-Mar-21 Released
Sandeep Aur Pinky Faraar 19-Mar-21 Released
Flight 19-Mar-21 Released
No Means No 22-Mar-21 Postponed
Haathi Mere Saathi 26-Mar-21 Postponed
Saina 26-Mar-21 Released
Koi Jaane Na 26-Mar-21 Released
Bunty Aur Babli 2 23-Apr-21 Postponed
Thalaivi 23-Apr-21 No announcement
Chehre 30-Apr-21 No announcement
Sooryavanshi 30-Apr-21 Postponed
Radhe 13-May-21 No announcement
Satyameva jayate 2 14-May-21 No announcement
Toofan 21-May-21 No announcement
Bell bottom 28-May-21 No announcement
83 the film 04-Jun-21 No announcement
Source: Industry, Edelweiss Research
Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 7Q4FY21: Result Preview
Advertising: Rocky year behind; hopeful for the future
According to the EY advertising report, advertising and event spends took a hit of
29% in CY20—the highest one-year drop in the history of advertising expenditure.
There was only a modest improvement in advertisement rates and volumes for
broadcasters, and cinema advertising remained negligible.
Advertising spend across media
(INR bn) CY2019 CY2020 CY2021E
Television 320 251 304
Print 206 122 152
Events 83 27 53
OOH 39 16 22
Radio 31 14 23
Cinema 8 2 5
Traditional total 687 432 559
Digital 191 191 234
Total 878 623 793
Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research
Television Advertising: Regional pull and hopeful of volume recovery
The pandemic gave a strong push to the average time Indians spent on TV. Overall
in CY20, the time spent increased by 7% over 2019 levels. The rise in viewership had
largely stabilized by Dec-20. But the increase in viewership did not translate to ad
volumes for most part of the year. Though ad volumes have not reached pre-covid-
19 levels, the last part of the year marked a modest increase in ad volumes.
Viewership change and corresponding ad volume change for CY20
(% change) Viewership Change vs 2019 Ad volume change vs 2019
Pre Covid (week 1-10) -6% -3%
During lockdown (week 11-26) 18% -32%
After lockdown (week 27-37) 14% 5%
Year end (week 38-52) 6% 20%
Total for the year 9% -3%
Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research
Going ahead for broadcasters, we expect that aggressive marketing and new
launches by FMCG, pharma and e-commerce companies to continue to improve ad
volumes. During the pandemic, ad spends were dominated by household products,
hygiene products and two new entrant to the list of top advertisers - entertainment
companies and E-commerce players. With the resurgence in Covid cases, the
increase in online ordering, rising social media commerce and people spending more
time on screen, we can expect these categories to continue to increase their spends.
We expect FMCG, durables and e-commerce players to focus the bulk of their
advertising budget on TV.
8 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities LimitedQ4FY21: Result Preview
Television ad spends across Industries
Ad spend across Industries CY 2019 CY 2020 Growth
FMCG 49% 51% -9%
E-Com 5% 11% 95%
Consumer Durables 12% 8% 44%
Telecom 7% 6% -29%
Auto 5% 4% -28%
BFSI 1% 4% 193%
Education 3% 3% -17%
Real estate 2% 2% 1%
Others 16% 11% -41%
Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research
Top advertisers by product category
2019 2020
Rank Categories %Share Categories %Share
1 Toilet soap 7% Toilet soap 7%
2 Shampoo 3% Ecomm/entertainment 4%
3 Floor Cleaners 3% Toothpastes 4%
4 Washing powder 3% Shampoo 4%
11 Toothpastes 3% Washing powder 4%
Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research
In 2020, regional channels dominated the screens compared with national channels,
both in terms of viewership increase and ad volumes. Regional channels received
27% more advertising compared with national channels. Regional channels also
logged more than 50% of viewership. Almost all major regional languages revelled
in a good jump in viewership, barring Kannada and Marathi, which marked a
negligible decline. English channels, on the other hand, saw a decline.
Advertisement volumes by channel type
Ad volume (in Hours per channel)
National
526
Regional
666
Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research
Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 9Q4FY21: Result Preview
Though presently Hindi GEC, movies and news are the top ad volume contributors,
going ahead, we can expect more advertisement spends towards regional channels.
This bodes well for ZEEL, which has a widespread regional language portfolio. The
company has also expressed that it would focus new investments towards regional
content, particularly Tamil, Bangla, Marathi and Punjabi. This will help ZEEL take
advantage of the shifting ad spends to regional language channels.
Viewership change in CY2020 versus 2019 by Language
(% change) Viewership Change vs 2019
Gujrathi 57%
Multi-language 27%
Punjabi 26%
Bangla 14%
Tamil 12%
Malyalam 11%
Hindi 11%
Oriya 9%
Telugu 5%
Kannada -1%
Marathi -2%
English -28%
Others -59%
Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research
Top 10 genres by ad volume share
2019 2020
Rank Genre %Share Genre %Share
1 Hindi Movie 10% Hindi Movie 11%
2 Hindi News 6% Hindi News 6%
3 Hindi GEC 5% Hindi GEC 6%
4 Music 5% Tamil GEC 4%
5 Tamil GEC 4% Music 4%
6 Bengali GEC 4% Hindi regional news 4%
7 Bengali news 3% Bengali news 3%
8 Hindi regional news 3% Bengali GEC 3%
9 Malyalam GEC 3% Malyalam GEC 3%
10 Telugu GEC 3% Telugu news 3%
11 Others(68) 54% Others(69) 55%
Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research
10 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities LimitedQ4FY21: Result Preview
Digital Advertising: Withstanding the storm
Though traditional advertising took a hit due to the pandemic, digital advertising saw
a modest increase. During 2020, the average screen time of Indians rose. Indians
spent on an average 4.6 hours on their phone overtaking South Korea and China to
take the third place for hours spent on phone.
In December 2020, India crossed 700 million in broadband connections while
smartphone users touched 448 million. Advertisers took to digital media to take
advantage of the increased screen time and capture attention. As per EY media &
entertainment report and Dentsu advertising report, Digital media is the only
segment which logged growth during CY20. Most advertising spends in digital
medium came from the usual e-commerce players and consumer durables. We
expect this trend to continue.
Digital advertising spend across industries
Digital Ad spend across Industries (% Share) CY 2019 CY 2020 Growth
FMCG 27% 14% -13%
E-Com 19% 24% 5%
Consumer Durables 11% 17% 6%
Telecom 9% 13% 4%
Auto 7% 6% -1%
BFSI 10% 10% 0%
Education 6% 5% -1%
Real estate 5% 2% -3%
Others 6% 9% 3%
Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research
Present and future relative landscape
During the year, FMCG continued to be the top spender relative to ad spends by
other sectors. But it was closely followed by e-commerce players, which ramped up
marketing to take advantage of the uptrend in online spending.
In CY20, five sectors spent more than 30% of their advertising budget on digital
media. Looking forward, we expect digital advertising to grow faster than traditional
means, while television would continue to capture the major share of ad spends
backed by expenditure from FMCG and consumer durables. While many advertisers
across industries decided to rely on digital media in CY20, Television remained the
preferred medium for FMCG and consumer durables companies.
Overall, we expect continued growth in digital ad spends and ad spends in television
to return to pre-covid levels before other traditional media channels. The EY Market
survey has also indicated that the marketing community expects ad spends to return
by CY22.
Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited 11Q4FY21: Result Preview
Overall ad spend by industry
Ad spend across Industries Ad spend (INR bn) % share
FMCG 1155 21%
E-Com 979 17%
Consumer Durables 575 10%
Telecom 512 9%
Auto 409 7%
BFSI 284 5%
M&E 254 5%
Retail 116 3%
Others 1314 23%
Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research
Industry ad spend share across media
Ad spend across various media TV Print Digital Radio Cinema OOH
FMCG 64% 11% 19% 2% 1% 4%
Auto 29% 39% 25% 3% 1% 3%
E-commerce 45% 14% 39% 1% 1% 1%
Retail 19% 47% 23% 1% 1% 5%
Telecom 50% 6% 40% 3% 1% 3%
BFSI 16% 19% 57% 6% 1% 3%
M&E 19% 37% 32% 5% 1% 5%
Consumer Durables 35% 15% 45% 1% 1% 4%
Others 34% 48% 10% 6% 1% 2%
Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research
Ad spend across media
Ad spend across various media (INR bn) TV Print Digital Radio Cinema OOH
FMCG 739.2 127.05 219.45 23.1 11.55 46.2
Auto 283.91 381.81 244.75 29.37 9.79 29.37
E-commerce 258.75 80.5 224.25 5.75 5.75 5.75
Retail 97.28 240.64 117.76 5.12 5.12 25.6
Telecom 3450 3450 3450 3450 3450 3450
BFSI 45.44 53.96 161.88 17.04 2.84 8.52
M&E 48.26 93.98 81.28 12.7 2.54 12.7
Consumer Durables 40.6 17.4 52.2 1.16 1.16 4.64
Others 446.76 630.72 131.4 78.84 13.14 26.28
Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research
Expected change in media ad spend share
(% share) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E
Television 40 40 39 41 40 39
Print 34 31 29 25 23 21
Radio 4 4 4 3 3 3
Cinema 2 2 2 1 1 1
OOH 6 6 6 3 3 3
Digital 15 17 20 28 30 34
Source: Dentsu-e4m Digital Advertising Report 2021; Edelweiss Research
12 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities LimitedQ4FY21: Result Preview
Expected growth in CY21 and time to recovery by media
(INR bn) 2019 2020 2021E Recovery to pre-Covid level
Television 320 251 304 2022
Print 206 122 152 2025+
Events 83 27 53 2023
OOH 39 16 22 2024
Radio 31 14 23 2024+
Cinema 8 2 5 2023
Traditional total 687 432 559 2023
Digital 191 191 234 N/A
Total 878 623 793 2023
Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research
Marketing community expectations for CY22
Expected change in Ad spending Overall Traditional
Increase over 10% 46% 27%
Increase under 10% 18% 29%
No major change 20% 20%
Reduce under 10% 5% 10%
Reduce over 10% 10% 14%
Source: FICCI-EY M&E Report 2020; Edelweiss Research
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Aditya Narain 2.5.4.20=3dc92af943d52d778c99d69c48a8e0c8
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Date: 2021.04.09 15:08:24 +05'30'
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