2020 CAPE FEAR AREA THE ECONOMICS OF HOUSING - Cape Fear REALTORS
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2020 CAPE FEAR AREA THE ECONOMICS OF HOUSING
RECORD-BREAKING. HISTORY-MAKING.
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*Source: Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC 2020
SNAPSHOT A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT
An analysis of the residential CONTENTS
real estate market and land Cape Fear REALTORS® (CFR) is a professional REALTOR®
development conditions in alliance working together for our communities and
the counties served by the MSA members to protect, advocate, and promote real property
ownership and investment.
Cape Fear REALTORS® and Definition | Outlook 4
the Wilmington - Cape Fear We strive to be the premier resource for technology,
Home Builders Association. services and information for REALTORS® in our region so
ECONOMICS that they may better serve their clients. CFR serves the
The Economic Impact 5 interests of the public by:
Economic Growth Outlook 6 • Promoting private property rights.
• Monitoring and proposing regulation an legislation to
GDP & Interest Rate Outlook 7 ensure the availability and affordability of insurance for
both residential and commercial property owners
RESIDENTIAL MARKET • Work with the National Association of REALTORS®, the
North Carolina REALTORS® and the NC Real Estate
Existing Home Sales 8-9 Commission to promote ethically and legally sound
Median Sales Price 10 - 11 representation for consumers.
Days of Market 12
Months of Supply 13
Duplin County 14
910.762.7400 | www.capefear.REALTOR
Sampon County 15 6105 Oleander Drive, Suite 102 | Wilmington, NC 28405
Scotland County 16
NEW CONSTRUCTION The Wilmington – Cape Fear Home Builders Association
(WCFHBA) is the voice of the building and development
NAHB National Economic Prespective 17 industries in Southeastern North Carolina.
New Construction Permits 18
Chartered in 1965 and representing nearly 1200 member-
New Construction Trend 19 firms, the WCFHBA is the largest trade association in
Permit Distribution 20 Coastal North Carolina, the second largest Home Builders
Sales Price 21 Association in the state, and the eighth largest Home Builders
Heat Maps 22 - 23 Association in the nation. The Wilmington-Cape Fear Home
Builders Association represents an industry that contributes
billions of dollars to the economy of Southeastern North
2021 FORECAST Carolina and supports thousands of jobs in the greater
Wilmington area. For more than 55 years, the Wilmington-
National Forecast Highlights 24 Cape Fear Home Builders Association has been the voice
of the building industry, working to support not only our
members involved in the home building industry, but also
be an influential force for responsible growth by protecting
property rights and the privilege of home ownership.
910.799.2611 | www.wcfhba.com
3801-5 Wrightsville Avenue | Wilmington, NC 28403
4 5
W I L MIN GTO N ECONOM I C I M PACT
METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA TYPICAL HOME SALE IN NORTH CAROLINA
THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY ACCOUNTED FOR $90.5 BILLION
OR 15.4% OF THE GROSS STATE PRODUCT IN 2019.
MSA (also known as Metropolitan Statistical Area)
Defined as having at least one urbanized area with a population of 50,000 or more, TOTAL ECONOMIC IMPACT
plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration
with the core as measured by commuting patterns.
$75,312
27.3% 6.2% 16.1% 50.5%
$20,538 $4,650 $12,090 $38,033
TOTAL IMPACT TOTAL IMPACT TOTAL IMPACT TOTAL IMPACT
Income generated from Expenditures related to Multiplier of housing New home construction
real estate industries home purchase related expenditures
Real Estate Industries: We assume that commissions, fees and moving expenses, or income to
Pre-2013 WILM MSA New-WILM MSA real estate industries, associated directlywith the purchase are about 9% of the median home
Preceding 2013, The Wilmington Metropolitan In early 2013, the Wilmington, NC MSA was redefined to price.
Statistical Area (MSA) included the following include New Hanover and Pender Counties. Prior to that
Expenditures related to home purchase: Furniture and remodeling expenses are about $4,650
counties: Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender. time, the MSA also included Brunswick County. Brunswick
based on the NAHB figure.
County is now part of the Myrtle Beach, SC MSA.
Multiplier effect: The multiplier effect accounts for the fact that income earned in other sectors
of the economy as a result of a home saleis then re-circulated into the economy.
New construction: Additional home sales induce added home production. Typically, one new
home is constructed for every six existing home sales. Thus, for every existing homes sale, 1/6 of
a new home’s value is added to the economy.
6 Data source from BEA, U.S. Census, NAHB, Macroeconomic Advisors, NAR 7
ECOMONIC GROWTH OUTLOOK GDP At-a-Glance
THE IMPACT OF A PANDEMIC By the end of 2020, we saw an annual growth rate of -3.5%
for the overall U.S. Economy.
OUR INDUSTRY RIGHT NOW COULD BE BROKEN DOWN INTO
THE TALE OF TWO WORLDS.
On one hand, we have a robust, thriving market, homebuilding industry moved into Q1-2021, we
where houses are selling well before they are even are still seeing some of the same lingering trends
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.4
2.6
3.3
3.8
2.7
2.7
2.9
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.0
1.7
2.1
4.1
finished. Builders and REALTORS® are juggling carry-over from 2020 as it relates to material
more contracts than they know what to do with and pricing and delays. Lumber prices continue to
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
are busier than ever. On the other hand, we have remain high and volatile. We saw prices jump
an industry that has been plagued with huge price 150% in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2020, and we
-3.5
-2.8
-.3
increases, material shortages, and time delays that have yet to see any relief as we have moved into
are hindering the market from reaching its full the 1st quarter of 2021.
potential.
Ours is a global industry that relies heavily on
In Q1-2020 and Q2-2020, we saw first-hand the commodities and their overall supply chains
implications of the pandemic as the construction moving along without disruption. When we look
& real estate industry and U.S. economy shuttered. at the overall Real Gross Domestic product (GDP),
As we settled into Q3-2020 & Q4-2020, we saw we can see just how sharp of a turn it took from Q1
a completely different picture. After the initial to Q4 due to the effects of the pandemic.
virus concerns and safety protocols became more
of our everyday routine, and people adjusted As identified by the graph below, we essentially
accordingly, housing staged a dramatic turnaround slammed the breaks on the economy in the Q2-
beginning in the spring of 2020 and YTD. 2020, and then turned right around in the Q3-2020
and hit the accelerator. By the end of 2020, we saw
Interest Rate Outlook
One of the key metrics that helped provide this an annual growth rate of -3.5% for the overall U.S.
catalyst has been the historically low interest rates Economy. The most recent (January 2021) Monthly Outlook, prepared
which allowed buyer demand to surge with sales by the Economics Group of Wells Fargo Securities, analysts
surpassing many expectations. Fueled not only From an outlook standpoint, home construction forecast that the conventional 30-year home mortgage
by an in-migration of North Carolinians looking to will likely continue to expand, especially as we look interest rate was on average 3.9% in 2019 and 3.12% in
make that move to the coast, we also saw a sudden at the Q2-2021 and Q3-2021. Much of this will be 2020, down from 4.5% in 2018.
wave of relocations from northern states and other driven by a strong optimism that with the vaccine,
areas across the United States. we will finally reach a true new “steady” normal.
With home builder confidence near record highs,
This surge created a great deal of opportunities we expect continued gains for single-family
but with it came inventory issues as the market construction, as interest rates, which motivated
demand for housing right now is far outpacing the buyers in 2020, are expected to remain low and
available supply on the ground. will provide greater purchasing power, especially
for first-time home buyers.
To meet this demand, the construction & real estate
industry had to quickly adapted and embraced Residential construction will continue to face
technology. Technology changed the game limiting factors, including higher costs and longer
forever and opened up a new world of virtual tours, delivery times for building materials, an ongoing
online mortgages, and secure E-Closings. This labor skills shortage, and concerns over regulatory
allowed consumers the opportunity to continue to cost burdens. For apartment construction, we
move through the home buying process efficiently will see some weakness for multifamily rental
and safely. development particularly in high-density markets,
4.45
6.34
6.64
5.84
3.66
3.65
5.83
3.85
8.05
5.04
6.03
4.69
5.87
6.41
3.99
6.97
3.98
4.17
3.12
4.5
while remodeling demand should remain strong
3.9
Then we look at the other side of the coin. As the and expand further.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
8 Data source from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US Department of Labor & 9
Bureau of Economic Analysis housed in the US Department of Commerce
Brunswick County
All Residential Home Sales
WILMINGTON AREA HOME SALES Brunswick County 2020 sales soared
ALL RESIDENTAL HOMES in 2020, up 29.1% with 6,339 closed
sales. The past two years are measured
increases in sales by comparison,
following a modest rise of an additional
145 closed sales (+3.1%) in 2018, with a
4,648
2,230
2,230
2,662
2,034
6,339
Units Sold
3,807
4,793
4,912
3,619
3,102
3,149
Existing-home sales account for more than 90 percent of total home sales, and data captures complet- 2.5% increase in 2019. Demand for 2021
ed transactions. Wilmington area sales continue to outpace the nation with performance that continues is off to a strong start with 660 sales
to lead the region. Existing home inventory remains tight as demand for homes in North Carolina, and pending in the first month of the year,
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
the Wilmington area outpaces housing starts. Buyer demand continues to push competition for the 65.8% more than January 2020.
near term.
U.S. home sales rose in 2020 edging just north of 6.7 million sales by December 2020, up 22.2% from
December 2019 at 5.5 million sales. This has edged back towards the all-time Nationwide peak in 2005
of 7.1 million sales. New Hanover County
All Residential Home Sales
Total Wilmington area home sales continue to grow, rising 4.6% in 2019 to 11,907 over 11,382 in 2018.
This year’s sales are at near record levels, merely 1.2% below the 2006 market peak of 12,055. This New Hanover 2020 sales posted a
is especially welcome news for all area markets, each posting growth in 2019 after near stagnant or substantial 15.1% increase over 2019 with
declining sales from 2017 to 2018. 2020 promises another robust year with January 2020 sales 6.6% 6,365 closed sales, the largest increase in
higher than one-year ago, with 12,120 closed sales in the region. sales since 2015. The increase equated to
an additional 836 sales in 2020 compared
to a mere 20 additional sales in 2018 over
2,686
6,365
5,243
2,522
5,223
3,829
3,881
4,521
5,529
2,703
3,551
Units Sold
4,974
2017. January 2021 pending sales are
621, up 32.1% indicating a strong year
ahead for the county.
308 310 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
298
289
276
266
246 255
220 225
217 214
Pender County
All Residential Home Sales
Pender County 2020 sales were
astonishing in 2020, with an 25.9%
increase over 2019 with 380 additional
closed Sales. This is a record-breaking
gain in sales for Pender County and more
than made up for the 3.4% decline in
14,550
11,266
11,382
10,140
11,907
1,466
1,846
Units Sold
1,282
1,395
5,544
1,359
1,347
5,439
8,080
5,006
9,422
1,158
7,056
8,188
1,118
2018. Pending sales for this year are also
Units Sold
843
450
523
611
showing an impressive 64.2% increase
over January 2020 with up 72 homes in
the first month of the year. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
# of Wilmington # of National (millions)
10 Data source from NCR MLS & NAR 2009 - 2020 Data source from NCR MLS & NAR 2009 - 2020 11
Brunswick County
All Residential Homes
WILMINGTON AREA MEDIAN PRICE In 2020 the Brunswick County median
ALL RESIDENTAL HOMES sales price increased $30,000 to $275,000,
a solid 12.2% increase over the 2019 gain
245,000
200,000
203,500
232,000
275,000
185,000
173,500
175,000
191,000
218,990
189,900
177,000
of 5.6%. The county remains under the
Sales Price
national average of $309,800 and is 2.6%
higher than the U.S. South median of
Median Sales Price continues to climb for the region, with steady increases in 2019, outpacing $268,100 in 2020.
national figures across the three-county area. Comparatively, the United States home median 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
sales price increased $35,300 to $309,800, up 12.9% nationwide.
The Wilmington region median sale price rose 11.1% the highest growth of the measured
period to $285,000 in 2020. Since 2012, median sales price in the region has increased year-over-
year, with a notable 6.3% bump in 2017, second to only 2020, where strongest gains
occurred in Brunswick county. New Hanover County
All Residential Homes
In 2020 New Hanover County median
sales price increased $25,000 to $290,000,
6.7 a 9.4% increase over 2019, the largest
one-year gain in median price in the data
collected. This is the largest year’s sales
5.5 5.5 5.5
5.3 5.3 price gain in New Hanover County after a
5.1
265,500
290,000
254,900
182,000
242,900
185,000
214,500
210,000
195,000
228,750
194,075
199,900
4.9 notable one-year increase of 8.2% in 2014.
4.7
Sales Price
4.3 4.3 New Hanover lagged the area in 2020
4.2
price increases, posting under the robust
12.9% nationwide and 11.3% U.S. South
gains in median sales price. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pender County
All Residential Homes
Leading the area in 2020, Pender County
245,000
256,500
205,000
285,000
220,000
183,000
192,000
180,000
233,900
210,000
194,900
189,525
posted a median sales price increased
Sales Price
from $269,700 to $300,000, a hefty 11.2%
increase, much improved over the near flat
gain of 1.1% in 2018. The bump in 2020
was the highest in the past ten years, with
200,000
300,000
236,000
255,000
252,350
232,700
190,000
194,250
199,000
224,769
269,700
207,123
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 a $30,300 median sales price increase in
Sales Price
one year. Pender remained just under the
national median sales price by $9,800 or
# of Wilmington # of National (millions) 3.2% and was 11.9% higher than the 2019
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
U.S. South median average of $268,100.
12 Data source from NCR MLS & NAR 2009 - 2020 Data source from NCR MLS & NAR 2009 - 2020 13
Wilmington Area Wilmington Area
Days on Market (DOM) Months of Supply
All Residential Homes All Residential Homes
A frequently used indicator of residential single-family housing market Months of Supply is expressed as how many months it would take Markets are traditionally
strength is median Days on Market (DOM), the number of days that a for all current residential properties for sale on the market to sell
residential property is available for sale before going under contract. In at the average rate of sales for the past twelve months. Often
categorized as a Seller’s,
general, a fall suggests a strengthening market, while a rise indicates a referred to as the absorption rate, this marker correlates closely Buyer’s or Balanced
weakening market. with the Days on Market, since both numbers track the amount
of time between when a property is listed and when an offer is Market. Five to eight
Days on Market across the region continue to drop, reinforcing the demand accepted. months of supply is
for housing among all sectors. As rapid market absorption continues, the
most notable changes over the near term are in Brunswick and New Hanover As the housing market has recovered from the initial impacts of considered a Balanced
counties. the pandemic, nominal house price appreciation has soared, but
Market: if the number
affordability improved until recently due to the house-buying
In 2020, New Hanover’s median DOM took a notable drop to a mere 14 power benefit from historically low mortgage rates. As our is less than five months,
days, a one-year 22.2% decline after a steep 28% drop in 2019. The county’s regional economy strengthened over the past ten years, a time
absorption of available inventory leads the region in all but one of the last of once abundant housing choice has now moved to a Seller’s
this suggests a Seller’s
five years and is the consistently lower than Brunswick and Pender counties. Market across the overall region. New Hanover first crossed Market. If the number is
this line in 2016 and in the years following, first Pender, then
Pender County median DOM was 29 days, a 9.4% decline from 32 DOM in Brunswick County followed. In 2020, all three Counties in the greater than 8 months,
2019. As this county continues to develop new housing stock, the demand region have had 3 months or less of available inventory and New this suggests a Buyer’s
looks to keep pace with available and new inventory. Hanover remains lowest, ending 2020 with 2 months of inventory
compared to 3.3 and 3.4 in Pender and Brunswick counties. Market.
In 2020, Brunswick County median DOM saw the largest drop of 14 days from
44 to 30, or 31.8%. The most recent year with significant market absorption
was 2016, when DOM dropped 30.2% in one year, from 106 to 74 days.
30
140 Brunswick County Brunswick County
25
New Hanover County New Hanover County
120
Pender County Pender County
20
100
20
80
60 15
40 10
20 5
0 0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
14 Data source from NCR MLS 2009 - 2020 Data source from NCR MLS & NAR 2009 - 2020 15
Duplin County Sales Price # of Sales
Sampson County Sales Price # of Sales
All Residential Homes All Residential Homes
240
168 165 168
184 182 162 163
181
174 148 145 145
156 158 130
154
119 122
115
121
113 116
97
140,000
150,000
100,000
145,000
130,000
102,900
114,750
110,000
84,000
88,000
68,000
95,000
76,500
89,450
79,500
98,000
93,000
87,500
95,000
95,000
84,700
77,500
97,250
67,180
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Duplin County median sales price saw a moderate increase of $10,000 in 2020, posting a gain of 7.1% over 2019. The 2020 Sampson County median sales price increased 11.5% in 2020, with a healthy gain of $15,000 in median price, yet still
sales price is the highest on record at $150,000 followed by 2019 with a median of $140,000. The largest single year bump behind the robust one-year gain of $25,000 in 2019. Closed sales dipped for the first time since 2017 with sales at 145
in median sales price for the county was in 2018 with gain of $23,300, moving from $89,450 to $114,750, a jump of 28.3%. for the year, a possible signal in response to a two-year median sales price surge of 31.8%, aggressive gains by any
definition. Despite this considerable increase in median sales price, Sampson County remains priced comfortably
The median sales price for Duplin County remains well below the U.S. South and the Wilmington region. Duplin County is below the U.S. South and the Wilmington region. Sampson County is 96.6% or $140,000 below the 2020 median
$135,000 below the 2020 median sales price for the Wilmington Area and 78.7% or $118,100 below the U.S. South. Duplin home sales price for the Wilmington Area and $123,100 or 84.9 % below the U.S. South.
County sales saw its greatest sales increase with 240 closed in 2020, one off the 2018 closed sales of 182. Sales have soared
in 2020, increasing 32.5% over 2019 which saw 181 sales during the year. In 2020, Sampson County median Days
on Market (DOM) before sale of 51 123
In 2020, Duplin County median Days on days rebounded 8.5% from 47 days in
97 99
Market (DOM) continued to move in a 2019. Available inventory of homes at 90
85
positive direction, with homes taking 12 3.7 Months’ Supply continued to drop 76
81
111 75
days fewer to accept an offer to purchase, 104 104 in 2020, posting 21.3% lower than 69
a drop of 21% over 2019. The inventory 93 93 90 2019. As inventory continues to decline 55
51
85 47
supply dropped 30.2% in 2020 which is a 80 coupled with double digit percentage
record low for the county. 73 price gains, the county will continue to
64
struggle meet buyer demand.
57
Inventory pressures for Duplin County
51
sales arrived in 2020 as buyers increasingly
selected rural and nearby counties to
metropolitan areas. Duplin posted a
31.9% gain in the number sales in 2020,
10
15
13
14
12
11
23
23
24
20
15
16
12
17
9
7
6
7
5
4
9
8
6
4
posting 240 sales. Overall, modest sales
price increase and declining Months’ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Supply signals a shift into higher demand
and the green shoots of a Seller’s Market.
Month Supply DOM Month Supply DOM
16 Data source from NCR MLS 2009 - 2020 Data source from NCR MLS 2009 - 2020 17
220 223
HEADWI NDS LOOM
203
177
160
150
142 HOUSING GROWTH CONTINUES IN 2021
Scotland County
89
All Residential Homes
The U.S. economy contracted at its steepest pace tions are not likely to be met until 2022 or beyond,
since the Great Depression in the second quarter indicating accommodative monetary policy that
Scotland County median sales price of 2020, as a result of the widespread shutdowns will support housing, home building and the overall
increased a dramatic $20,100 in 2020, across the country due to COVID-19. Though we economy for years to come. Though mortgage rates
104,000
104,000
102,000
posting a strong gain of 20.1% over 2019. saw a strong rebound in the second half of 2020 led rose slightly in recent weeks, we expect the 30-year
98,000
89,500
97,000
99,900
99,900
The 2020 sales price is the highest on by the gradual reopening of businesses and revital- fixed mortgage rate will remain relatively low but
record at $120,000 followed by 2018 with ized spending, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gradually increase over the course of 2021. None-
a median of $104,000. This was the largest still shrank 3.5% in 2020, the first contraction since theless, higher mortgage rates represent a housing
one-year bump in median sales price for 2009. However, with additional fiscal stimulus and affordability risk.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
the county, the next greatest jump was in an increase in the number of available vaccines, we
2015 with an increase at $12,500 or 14%. expect the economy to accelerate with a 5.1% annu- While the housing market was hit hard by the
al growth rate in 2021. With a recovering economy economic shutdown during the Spring, it has seen a
Sales Price # of Sales
The median sales price for Scotland and renewed interest in housing, the residential sec- robust rebound during the second half of last year.
County remains below the U.S. South and tor is poised for additional gains. Due to low mortgage interest rates, a renewed focus
the Wilmington region. Scotland County on the importance of home, an evolving geography
is $165,600 below the 2020 median Though the pandemic resulted in a record 20.5 mil- of housing demand and a lack of inventory, the
sales price for the Wilmington Area and lion jobs being lost in March and April, 12.3 million housing sector has been a bright spot for the econo-
$148,100 below the U.S. South. Scotland 127 jobs have been created since May and the unem- my. As measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing
County sales posted the highest recorded 113 ployment rate declined to 6.3% in January. Currently, Market Index, builder confidence hit an all-time high
107
sales on record with 223 closed sales in 90 90 job gains in residential construction have offset all of 90 in November and has remained in the mid- to
the county, a one-year jump of 9.9%. the job lost in March and April, while only 60% of high 80’s since December. Recent softening, how-
66 non-residential construction jobs lost have been re- ever, is due to concerns over rising lumber and mate-
In 2020, Scotland County median Days 37 covered. The improvements of the past ten months rial costs and increased regulatory policy risk.
on Market (DOM) gained lighting speed, reflect that the economy is recovering from the
21 The COVID-19 pandemic not only shut down the
ending 2020 at 21 days to go under pandemic, albeit gradually. And while broad-based
economy but changed housing preferences. The
contract. The absorption rate picked up economic distress continues, we expect the unem-
NAHB Home Building Geography Index (HBGI)
significant speed, as Months’ Supply of ployment rate to fall back to approximately 5.0% by
found that residential construction activity expanded
homes dropped 53.6% in one year; from the start of 2022.
at a more rapid pace in lower density markets, such
4.5 in 2019 to 2.4 in 2020. As inventory
Additionally, the Federal Reserve pledged to keep as smaller cities and rural areas since the first quarter
continues to decline and prices increase
interest rates near zero and will likely not raise inter- of 2020. This suburban shift continued through the
22
10
with stable pace of sales, the county is
8
7
8
8
5
2
est rates until the economy has recovered and the rest of 2020. This change is expected to continue on
facing similar scarcity to Wilmington.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 inflation rate reaches 2.0%. These economic condi- a partial basis in the post-vaccine economy.
Month Supply DOM
ROBERT DIETZ, SVP & Chief Economist
National Association of Home Builders
18 Data source from NCR MLS 2009 - 2020 19Brunswick County
New Construction Residential Building Permits
New Home Building Permits A total of 2844 single family permits
were issued in Brunswick County in 2020;
The United States finished 2020 with 977,863 permits and increase of 14.5% above its level one this is a +14.8% increase from 2019
year ago of 854,000 Permits. It is currently 135% higher than its 2011 recession-era bottom or in which 2477 permits were issued. It
414,498 permits and currently -42% below its 2005 peak permit level of 1,681,966 permits. represents 54% of the Wilmington Region
Countywide total permits, up from 53%
in 2019. When you look at the municipal
County Permit #
The State of North Carolina finished 2020 with 56,898 permits and increase of 15.6% above its
jurisdictions in the County, the bulk of
level one year ago of 48,071 permits. It is currently 128% higher than its 2011 recession-era
2,844
2,005
2,491
2,249
1,643
2,477
2,578
1,226
1,995
1,319
those permits were in the Town of Leland
bottom of 24,863 permits and currently -33% below its 2005 peak permit level of 84,975 permits.
943
892
with a grand total of 770 permits issued
in 2020. The highest number of permits
The Wilmington Area (New Hanover, Pender, and Brunswick County) finished 2020 with a combined issued in one month during 2020 was 94 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
total of 5,315 Permits. This represents a 14% increase above its level one year ago of 4660 permits. permits in the month of March.
It is currently 237% higher than its 2010 recession-era bottom of 1,571 permits and currently -31%
below its 2005 peak permit level of 7658.
New Hanover County
Residential Building Permits
National Permit # (1000s)
1681 A total of 1562 single family permits
1612 State Permit # (1000s) were issued in New Hanover County
in 2020; this is a +8.85% increase from
Wilmington Permit #
1443 2019 in which 1435 permits were issued.
1379
1321 It represents 29% of the Wilmington
Area total permits, down from 31% in
County Permit #
2019. When you look at the municipal
jurisdictions in the County, the bulk
1,435
1,064
1,482
1,350
1,562
1,736
1,909
1,123
973 977 of these permits were in the City of
482
982
473
401
817 852 854 Wilmington with a grand total of 449
85
83 745 residential permits issued in 2020. The
690 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
630 highest number of permits issued in one
76 617
569 month during 2020 was 69 permits in the
514
67 68 446 month of April.
66 435 414
57
47 48 49 Pender County
41 Residential Building Permits
39
35 35 37
A total of 909 single family permits were
30 issued in Pender County in 2020; this is a
25 26 24 +21.5% increase from 2019 in which 748
permits were issued. It represents 17%
of the Wilmington Area total permits, up
from 16% in 2019. When you look at the
4,465
4,660
4,290
6,205
4,899
3,407
1,844
5,527
4,998
3,934
2,971
6,861
5,315
3,756
3,513
7,685
3,613
1,662
1,571
municipal jurisdictions in the County, the
bulk of these permits were in the Town of
County Permit #
Surf City with a grand total of 251 permits
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 issued in 2020. The highest number of
430
909
388
206
499
562
232
237
537
525
permits issued in one month during 2020
748
124
was 43 in the month of December.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
20 All Inspection Data is gather directly from each responsible permitting jurisdiction within each County & U.S. Cenus Bureau All Inspection Data is gather directly from each responsible permitting jurisdiction within each County & U.S. Cenus Bureau 217%
22%
Permit Distribution Brunswick County
2009 Permit Distribution by County New Home Sale Price
In 2020 the Brunswick County median
The following pie charts depict the percentage
new home sales price increased
72% distribution of permits by the County at three points
$6,690 to $270,690 over the previous
225,25tf 0
in time, viz., 2009 (the last year of that recession),
highest recorded new homes median
248,430
264,000
235,000
235,000
225,000
220,000
198,500
210,000
270,690
228,675
249,900
2013 (early recovery year), 2017 (more than seven
of $264,000 in 2019, a one-year gain
Sales Price
years following the end of that recession) and 2020
11% of 2.5%. It is $4,310 or 1.5% under
present day.
the 2020 median existing home
sales price of $275,000 for Brunswick
42% Brunswick County accounted for 72% of all 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
County.
Wilmington Area permits in 2009, 47% in 2013, 51%
2013 in 2017, 58% in 2018, 54% in 2019, and 54% in 2020.
47% New Hanover County accounted for 22% of all
Wilmington Area permits in 2009, 42% in 2013, 39%
in 2017, 30% in 2018, 30% in 2019, and 29% in 2020. New Hanover County
New Home Sale Price
Pender County accounted for 7% of all Wilmington
10%
Area permits in 2009, 11% in 2013, 10% in 2017, 12% In 2020 New Hanover County median
in 2018, 16% in 2019, and 17% in 2020. new home sales price rose 3%, to
39% $349,900 from $339,795 in 2019.
2017 Brunswick County
This is a slight decrease in median
new home sales price from 2018 to
New Hanover County 2019 which saw an increase of 4.6%.
230,000
295,000
325,000
258,090
It is $64,900 or 22.8% above the 2020
282,790
51%
239,000
227,000
349,900
339,795
279,900
326,190
317,085
Pender County median existing home sales price of
Sales Price
$285,000 for New Hanover County,
nearly identical to the spread of 22%
in 2019. This two year comparison
12% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
supports a loose correlation to overall
median and new homes as a subset of
30% overall sales.
2018 17%
58% Pender County
New Home Sale Price
In 2020 Pender County median
16% 2020 29% new home sales price increased
incrementally $4,899, a 1.6% over
2019. This is a significant decrease
from the previous year which saw a
268,846
243,506
226,245
273,000
258,900
308,920
274,000
280,313
237,500
219,000
267,450
313,819
30%
2019 10.2% increase of $28,607. Home
Sales Price
54% prices are just under existing sales
price in the county, posting $13,819
54% below the 2020 median existing
sales price of $300,000. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
22 All Inspection Data is gather directly from each responsible permitting jurisdiction within each County Data source from NCR MLS 2009 - 2020 23HE AT MA PS Brunswick County
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
New Hanover County
Pender County
24 Data source for graphic is from WCFHBA based upon actual homes under construction 252021 NATIONAL FORECAST
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