Assessing the Growth Opportunities for Irish Horticulture

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Assessing the Growth Opportunities for Irish Horticulture
Assessing the Growth Opportunities
for Irish Horticulture
February 2020
Assessing the Growth Opportunities for Irish Horticulture
Introduction & Methodology
February 2020
Assessing the Growth Opportunities for Irish Horticulture
Key Project Objective

     To identify opportunities for crops which could be grown in Ireland
              and to help inform a future strategy for the sector

8
Assessing the Growth Opportunities for Irish Horticulture
Research Process

  1                            3                                    5
Horticulture Industry         Develop Import                      Outline Opportunities
Capability Assessment         Reliance Map                        - Market Mapping

               2                                   4                             6
        Understand Horticulture Market         Identify Buyer Motivations      Report Development & Presentation
        Dynamics in Ireland

                                                                                                             9
Assessing the Growth Opportunities for Irish Horticulture
Market Segmentation
                                                                               Irish
                                                                            Horticulture

                                            Edible
                                         (Retail/                                                                Amenity
                                       Foodservice)

                                                                                                               Plants / Cut
               Vegetables                                           Fruit
                                                                                                                 Flowers

                                                                                                                          Amenity
                                                                  Protected                           Amenity Food
  Field Veg   Protected Veg   Organic Veg             Top Fruit                       Organic Fruit                      Specialist
                                                                    Fruit                                Retail
                                                                                                                        Garden Retail

                    The Irish Horticulture market was segmented into 3 key areas, with 8 sub
                    sections – highlighted in green.
                                                                                                                                        10
Assessing the Growth Opportunities for Irish Horticulture
Methodology – sector attractiveness

Each of the sub-sectors identified have
been plotted on a matrix to identify the
most attractive sectors for Irish producers
to target.
They are then positioned into various
quadrants according to their average value
per kilo and import volume for the year.
•    They are considered high in value if the price
     achieved is above average for vegetable
     imports.
•    They are considered large volume sectors if
     the amount imported is above average for
     vegetables imported into Ireland.
Assessing the Growth Opportunities for Irish Horticulture
Market Background

                    15
Assessing the Growth Opportunities for Irish Horticulture
Attitudes Towards Fruit and Vegetables

    100%
     90%                83%                                     81%
     80%
     70%                                                                                          65%
                                                                                                                            58%
     60%
%

     50%                                                                                                                                                      40%
     40%
     30%
     20%
     10%
      0%
             I think supermarkets should    I am currently trying to eat more       I would like to see more    I would pay more for fruit and I would like prepared portions of
           provide more Irish sourced fruit       fruit and vegetables        information about the grower on vegetables that guarantees a fair fruit and vegetables (eg apple
           and vegetables where possible                                        fruit and vegetable packaging      price is paid to farmers    slices) to be equal to one of my 5
                                                                                                                                                              a day

                   Source: Mintel, Fruit and Vegetables – Ireland, March 2019, 2018 Toluna Data

                   Irish fruit and vegetables are in demand. Locally sourced produce is a key
                   requirements for Irish consumers, with over 80% of consumers believing
                   supermarkets should provide more, where possible                                                                                             16
Assessing the Growth Opportunities for Irish Horticulture
Irish Retailers Committed to Irish Produce

       All of the major retailers publicly state their commitment to source Irish
       produce with key ranges entirely sourced from Irish producers
                                                                                    17
Assessing the Growth Opportunities for Irish Horticulture
Irish Foodservice Suppliers Committed to Irish Produce

       There is a commitment from foodservice suppliers, but support does not
       seem to be as developed vs retail                                        18
Irish Food Service Market – QSR
                                                                                                              Any Provenance of          Irish Vegetables/
Outlet or Chain                      Number of Irish Outlets Irish Provenance on Menu                         Vegetables/ Fruit Stated   Fruit Stated on
                                                                                                              on Menu                    Menu
IPC Europe (Subway)                  c.300 Franchises                      No                                 No                         No
Supermacs                            c.100                                 Yes Irish Beef                     No                         No
McDonalds                            91                                    Yes Irish & British Beef           No                         No
                                     79 Franchises
Domino's Pizza                                                             No                                 No                         No
                                     (50RoI, 29NI)
                                                                                                                                         No but do state will
Freshly Chopped                      50                                    Yes Dubliner Cheese                No                         source locally
                                                                                                                                         where possible
AIL Group (Abrakebabra/              c. 130 food outlets in                Yes Irish Beef (Abrakebabara)
                                                                                                              No                         No
O'Brien/ Bagel Factory)              Ireland (franchised out)              Yes Irish Ham/Sausages (O'Brien)
Nandos                               18                                    Yes Irish Chicken                  No                         No
                                                                                                                                         No but will source
                                                                                                                                         local vegetables
Camile Thai                          18 (16RoI, 2 NI)                      Yes Irish Beef Steak               No
                                                                                                                                         and herbs when in
                                                                                                                                         season

                 Source: Bord Bia Irish Foodservice Directory and Levercliff Audits 2019

                 A number of major chains have Irish provenance on their menu however this is
                 primarily focussed on meat and dairy. Horticulture produce listed on the menu
                 does not tend to have a country of origin reference. This is similar for hotels and
                                                                                                   19
                 coffee shops
Irish Food Service Market – FSR* and Pubs
                                                                                                                                                               Irish Vegetables/
                                                    Number of Irish                                                      Any Provenance of Vegetables/
         Outlet or Chain                                                            Irish Provenance on Menu                                                    Fruit Stated on
                                                       Outlets                                                               Fruit Stated on Menu
                                                                                                                                                                     Menu

                                                                                  Yes Irish Beef, Irish Strawberry
Entertainment Enterprise Group                          c.69 in total                                                     No but reference to seasonality             No
                                                                                       and Cream Icecream
Eddie Rocket's                                                40                           Yes Irish Beef                                No                           No
Brambles                                                      24                   Yes Irish Beef, Irish Chicken          No but reference to seasonality             No
                                                                                  Yes Irish Beef /Rhubarb /Crab          Yes Irish rhubarb/ Wye Valley new
Avoca                                                         13                                                                                               Yes Irish rhubarb
                                                                                          /Mackerel/ Pork                        season asparagus
                                                                                    Yes Irish Pork/ Beef/Gin/
Gourmet Food Parlour                                           8                                                          No but reference to seasonality             No
                                                                                              Liqueur
Sprout & CO                                                    7                                Yes                      There is reference to local produce   Yes Local Greens
                                                                                           Yes Irish Beef
Donybrook fair                                                 5                                                                          -                            -
                                                                                         Menu unavailable
JD Wetherspoons                                                5                   Yes Irish Beef/ Whisky Sauce                          No                           No
Happy Pear                                                     3                      Menu Not Available                                  -                            -
Wagamama                                                       3                              No                                          -                            -
                                                                                  Some Reference, Irish Chicken
Le Pain Quotidien                                              2                                                                         No                           No
                                                                                             Club
                    Source: Bord Bia Irish Foodservice Directory and Levercliff Audits 2019, *Full Service Restaurants

                    There is more evidence of provenance of horticulture produce in more
                    upmarket outlets such as full service restaurants but it is still not as
                    prominent as Irish meat                                                                                                                          20
Key Food Service Trends

                                   Continued
                                                                                          Continued
                                   demand by
                                                                                           desire to
                                   consumers
                                                                                            source
                                   for “fresh”
                                                                                       Irish products
                                      food
There should be growing demand for horticulture produce as consumers demand more fresh food.
According to Technomic Irish foodservice operators continue to cite provenance and Irish sourcing
as a key driver for purchasing wherever possible
                 Source: Irish Foodservice Market Insights, November 2018, *ROI & NI

                In some cases availability is a reason operators look elsewhere
                                                                                                        21
Horticulture Capability Assessment
Industry Expert Opinions

                                     22
Industry Expert Opinions:
Horticulture Industry MACRO Influences

Labour                   Farmers are reliant on migrant workers to process fruit and vegetables, and having to
                         become increasingly innovative to find and retain suitable, motivated and reliable staff.
                         Access to suitable accommodation is a challenge for producers.

Sustainability           The industry is facing major sustainability challenges in terms of chemical usage and not
                         being able to use Peat as a growing medium.

Pricing                  A highly competitive supermarket environment continues to put pressure on retail prices
                         of fruit and vegetables. The benefits of producer efficiencies are being eroded by
                         reduced retail prices.
Scale                    The Irish market is relatively small which limits investment opportunities for major
                         projects.

                 Levercliff interviewed two industry experts to gain an understanding of the
                 key challenges the sector faces.
Industry Expert Opinions: Organic
Organically growth edible produce – protected or unprotected

Challenges         • Highly fragmented producer base, mostly due to requirement to rotate crops,
                     resulting in relatively small crop sizes.

Opportunities      • There is current high demand from consumers.
                   • Future demand is going to come from consumers. The plant based consumer
                     will soon want pesticide free too.
                   • Collaboration between producers to lose their fear of the supermarkets,
                     instead working with them.
Enablers           • Development of producer organisations could stimulate growth.
                   • There has been little research devoted to organic.
Industry Expert Opinions: Big Ideas
Industry experts identified 5 key areas
Development Groups   •   The Apple Development group could set a precedent for future potential
                         development groups. Collaboration is key.
Producer             •   Not all sectors have producer organisations in place. These assist with shared
Organisations            resources, and enable farmers to collaborate and plan for future growth.
Products             •   Organic produce, or a new IPM focussed area is an opportunity
                     •   Blueberries are ready for up-scaling.
Glasshouses          •   There is significant opportunity to grow crops for local market, and with the correct
                         support, for export to the UK.
Policy               •   Favourable government policy could boost production in the sector, as it feels more
                         focussed on other sectors at present.
Training             •   There is a real opportunity to up-skill growers to manage their businesses more
                         effectively, and embrace change.
Retail Market Overview:
Vegetables
Total Irish Retail Fresh Veg. Sales (incl. Potatoes) 2017-
        2019
                                              Value                                                               Volume                            % Growth

                         €900.0                                                                 600.0
                                      774.9                               797.2
                         €800.0                         772.1
                                                                                                        488.6             478.4             476.3
                                                                                                500.0
                         €700.0

                                                                                  Million KGs
                         €600.0                                                                 400.0
                  €m

                         €500.0
                                              -0.4%             +3.2%                           300.0           -2.1%             -0.4%
                         €400.0               2017-18           2018-19                                         2017-18           2018-19

                         €300.0                                                                 200.0

                         €200.0
                                                                                                100.0
                         €100.0

                           €0.0                                                                   0.0
                                      2017              2018              2019                          2017              2018              2019

Source: Kantar Worldpanel 52 w/e 29th December 2019

                           As fresh vegetable prices have increased volume sales have declined. This has
                           benefited growth of frozen vegetable sales, However frozen vegetables still remain a
                           small segment with sales less than 7% of total fresh vegetables value sales
Total Irish Retail Veg. Sales by Type 2019 (Top 15)
                                                                                         Total Market                                             Total Market
                                                                                         Value Sales                                            Unit Sales (‘000)
                                                                                       (‘000) based on                                             based on
                                                                      Value Sales                                 Value         Volume Sales kg                   Volume Growth A Key Imported
                       Product                        Type                             Leading Retailer                                          Retailer Sales
                                                                      2019 (‘000)                               Growth %          2019 (‘000)                           %            Line
                                                                                         Sales using                                             using Kantar
                                                                                         Kantar Value                                            Volume Share
                                                                                         Share (2019)                                                (2019)
                       Potatoes                       Field            € 236,823           €129,745                21.2             207,832        1,093,852           -1.2            X
                        Tomato                     Protected           € 110,471            € 72,068               -1.6               32,592              45,640                  -1                  X
                       Peppers                     Protected            € 62,107            € 37,295                6.5               16,217              31,363                  7                   X
                        Carrots                       Field             € 60,327            € 24,226               -4.4               62,274              26,796                -1.2                  X
                      Mushroom                     Protected            € 53,913            € 26,985               -4.3               16,712              32,996                -0.3
                       Broccoli                       Field             € 34,348            € 23,283                3.3               14,596              18,830                  -4                  X
                        Onions                        Field             € 33,963            € 21,753                2.5               33,710              25,768                -13.5                 X
                        Lettuce                    Protected            € 28,541            € 11,969               -7.3               12,433              14,108                -7.6                  X
                Total Herbs Incl Garlic                                 € 19,030            € 22,643               -0.3                2,132              22,437                 5.8
                      Cucumber                     Protected            € 17,717            € 10,946                7.1               10,736              15,497                 3.1
                       Cabbage                        Field             € 15,257             € 8,472               -2.7                8,948               7,566                -11.2                 X
                    Spring Onions                     Field              € 9,568             € 8,514                0.9                2,316              10,975                 1.6
                         Celery                       Field              € 9,154             € 5,388                5.4                5,580               5,910                 2.8
                     Cauliflower                      Field              € 8,552             € 6,536                6.7                4,485               5,034                 1.9                  X
                       Parsnips                       Field              € 8,432             € 5,631               -2.4                4,532               5,569                -2.8
                        Beans                         Field              € 8,420             € 5,640                3.1                1,425               3,814                20.2                  X
Source: Kantar Worldpanel 52 w/e 8th September 2019/ Retailer Data 52 w/e 18th November 2019 *Retailer EPOS Data has been used as a base for a comparative figure to Kantar which is based on Panel Data

                                      7/10 of the top best-selling produce areas in Irish retail are also key imported lines
Total Irish Retail Veg. Sales by Type 2019 (Remaining Areas)
                                                                                        Total Market
                                                                                                                                      Total Market
                                                                                        Value Sales
                                                                                                                                    Unit Sales based
                                                                                         based on
                                                                     Value Sales                           Value    Volume Sales kg on Retailer Sales Volume Growth A Key Imported
                       Product                       Type                             Leading Retailer
                                                                     2019 (‘000)                         Growth %     2019 (‘000)     using Kantar         %             Line
                                                                                        Sales using
                                                                                                                                     Volume Share
                                                                                       Kantar Value
                                                                                                                                          (2019)
                                                                                        Share (2019)
                        Garlic                     Protected            € 7,981           € 7,567           3.8           975           5,900            7.3              X
                        Peas                         Field              € 7,851           € 3,976           -5.3         1,424          4,493            7.8
                   Turnips/Swedes                    Field              € 7,526           € 4,094           2.3          5,829          6,246            1.2              X
                     Sweetcorn                       Field              € 7,443           € 3,724           -1.6         2,480          3,429            9.3
                     Asparagus                       Field              € 6,798           € 5,679           -7.4         1,276          5,104            -1.4
                       Spinach                       Field              € 6,612           € 7,913          -11.4         1,156          6,336            -5.2
                     Courgettes                    Protected            € 6,586           € 4,521           -5.4         3,204          4,200            7.7
                   Brussel Sprouts                   Field              € 5,894           € 2,993          -10.1         3,393          3,145            -1.4
                        Leeks                        Field              € 5,369           € 4,317           -8.8         1,717          3,792           -18.1             X
                   Sweet Potatoes                    Field              € 5,209           € 5,150          -24.4         3,133          3,524           -33.9
                      Beetroot                       Field              € 2,939           € 3,275          -10.1         1,827          3,522            -5.2
                       Squash                        Field              € 2,687           € 1,479           -7.2         4,256          1,643            -9.4
                         Kale                        Field              € 2,679           € 1,257           0.5           537           1,141           -21.5             X
                      Pumpkin                        Field              € 1,653           € 1,664           19.7          381            606             22.2
                     Aubergines                      Field              € 1,429           € 5,154           -3.6          814           7,667            7.1
                       Radish                        Field              € 1,282            € 972            3.7           495           1,418             14
                   Chinese Leaves                    Field               € 436             € 512             35           112            297            -16.3
                       Chicory                       Field               € 413               €0             24.9           *              0              36.3
Source: Kantar Worldpanel 52 w/e 8th September 2019/ Retailer Data 52 w/e 18th November 2019

                                    There are also a number of smaller segments for Irish producers to target
Key Points for Bord Bia
•   The retail market has been impacted by supply issues over the past year which has had
    an impact on price – this makes it a volatile market for suppliers
•   Many of the large vegetable segments in retail are also key vegetable types that are
    imported indicating that demand (Retail/Foodservice or Manufacturing) is reliant on
    imported produce
•   There are key retail insights for Irish producers to consider
        ‒   Potatoes: Increasing interest in varieties other than Rooster
        ‒   Tomatoes: Vine are the largest by value, but plum varieties are performing well
        ‒   Peppers: The market is dominated by the strong performing traffic light pack
        ‒   Onions: Value growth is being maintained despite price increases
        ‒   Lettuce: There is a strong preference for butterhead lettuces
        ‒   Swede/Turnip: Swede dominates sales and are experiencing good growth

                                                                                              73
Foodservice Market Overview:
Vegetables
Foodservice, Veg. Market Sizes, Fresh, Frozen and
     Ambient, OBP*, 2017
                                                               Value                                        Consumed Volume (Finished Weight)

                                     180.0                                                              200.0

                                     160.0                                                              180.0
                                                       166.0
                                                                                                        160.0
                                     140.0
                                €m

                                                                                                 Kg m
                                                                                 135.0                  140.0
                                     120.0
                                                                                                        120.0
                                     100.0                                                                                                  178.0
                                                                                                        100.0
                                      80.0
                                                                                                         80.0
                                                                                                                      112.0
                                      60.0
                                                                                                         60.0
                                      40.0
                                                                                                         40.0

                                      20.0                                                               20.0

                                       0.0                                                                0.0
                                                    Vegetables                  Potatoes                            Vegetables             Potatoes

Source: Irish Foodservice Produce Market Insights, 2017, *ROI & NI *OBP Operator Buying Prices

                                Potatoes is the key volume area within foodservice but does not command as much
                                value as it is a competitive market
                                Vegetables is smaller in volume but commands greater value
Foodservice, Fresh Veg. Estimated Volume Market Sizes
                                                             Foodservice Operators Purchased Volumes of Fresh Produce Only

                                                     100.0

                                                      90.0

                                                      80.0
                                Kg m

                                                      70.0

                                                      60.0
                                                                                                                                           93.2
                                                      50.0
                                                                                     67.7
                                                      40.0

                                                      30.0

                                                      20.0

                                                      10.0

                                                       0.0
                                                                                 Vegetables                                              Potatoes

Source: Irish Foodservice Produce Market Insights, 2017, Kantar Worldpanel Average Prices 2019, Assuming 40% Retail Margin and 25% Foodservice Wholesaler Margin

                                Fresh potato sales equate to 45% of total retail sales
                                Vegetables represents 25% of total retail sales
Key Points for Bord Bia
•   Foodservice is a smaller market vs retail but could represent an
    opportunity for producers with the right products

•   The restaurant sector is a key area for horticulture producers with sales
    fragmented amongst other sectors

•   Fresh vegetable purchases are in growth, and expected to continued to
    grow but staff and skill shortages may impact on the types of product
    required – potentially increased demand for more prepared products

                                                                                81
Market Opportunities and Feedback:
Organic Vegetables
Total Organic Veg. Irish Retail Sales 2018-2019
                                             Value                                           Volume

                  60.00                                                      45.00
                                                                                     39.18                     Yr on Yr %
                                                                             40.00                              Growth
                                   48.66                                                               36.17
                  50.00                                46.32                 35.00

                                                                 Units (m)
                  40.00                                                      30.00
                                              -4.8%                                           -7.7%
           €m

                                                                             25.00
                  30.00                      2018-19                                         2018-19
                                                                             20.00

                  20.00                                                      15.00

                                                                             10.00
                  10.00
                                                                              5.00

                   0.00                                                       0.00
                                   2018                2019                          2018              2019

Source: Retailer Data 52 w/e 18th November 2019

                                    Organic vegetables have experienced a decline in value and volume retail
                                    sales
Organic Field Veg. Retail Market ROS Perf. Ranked by
         Value 2018-2019
                                                                                                                                       Number of weeks with
                                                                             Indicative Value    Indicative Units Number of weeks with
                                            Total Market Sales 2019                                                                     Sales (Conventional
                                                                            ROS/ Store/ Week    ROS/ Store/ Week         Sales
                 Field Vegetables                                                                                                        Veg Leading Line)
                                           52 weeks to 18th November 2019
                                                                                  2019                2019               2019                 2019
                         Potato                    €5,549,233                     € 94                 48                 52                   52
                         Carrot                    €3,746,253                    € 121                177                 52                   52
                         Onion                     €3,406,560                     € 58                 52                 52                   52
                        Broccoli                   €1,985,520                     € 72                 41                 52                   52
                         Celery                    €1,609,988                     € 84                 47                 38                   52
                        Beetroot                   €1,308,014                     €38                  21                 52                   52
                       Cauliflower                 €1,028,864                     € 52                 18                 48                   52
                       Courgette                    €577,152                      € 58                 26                 52                   52
                        Parsnip                     €405,379                      € 29                 13                 37                   52
                          Kale                      €314,742                      € 47                 30                 42                   52
                          Leek                      €258,375                      € 23                 12                 43                   52
                        Squash                      €244,412                      € 25                 12                 40                   52
                       Watercress                   €219,700                      € 29                 14                 30                    2
                        Cabbage                      €45,094                      € 10                  5                 25                   52

         A key focus should be to develop an Irish supply of the best selling lines including Cabbage

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019
                            The top 6 best selling conventional field vegetables are Potato, Carrot, Broccoli, Onion,
                            Cabbage and Spinach – Organic sales are in line with the conventional market except for
                            cabbage and cauliflower which has poor availability
                            Organic carrots is the best selling line in terms of ROS – Supplied by Irish producers
Retail Market Opportunity By Field Vegetable Type
                                                           Good Availability by
                                                                Retailer
              Develop Varieties
                                                                                  Carrots
                                                                                             Kale

  Limited                                                                                                      Good
 Range –                                                                                                       Range
Opportunity                                     Potatoes
 for more
 varieties           Onions Broccoli Celery

                      Cauli-
                      flower CabbageCourgette

              Develop Irish Supply                                                          Improve Supply
                                                           Poor Availability by
                                                                Retailer

                      The focus for protected vegetables is to improve supply of key crops by
                      extending the availability across the year
                                                                                                             122
Organic Carrots ROS Performance, 2018-19
        Ranked by Value ROS 2019
            Retailer/
                                    Dunnes               SuperValu                   Tesco                         Lidl                     Aldi                      Centra
           Carrot Type

                                                      SuperValu, €1.59,      Tesco, €0.69, 1kg            Lidl, €0.99, 1kg        Organic Fresh,
          Organic Carrots
                                                       750g (Irish)            (Irish)                       (Irish)                  €0.69, 700g (Irish)

                                                                                                  Indicative Value ROS/         Indicative Units ROS/       Number of weeks with
                                                                       Total Market Sales
                                                                                                       Store/ Week                   Store/ Week                   Sales
                                 Item Level
                                                                      52 weeks to 18th November
                                                                                                    2018            2019          2018         2019           2018             2019
                                                                                 2019

                            ORGANIC CARROTS                                €3,746,253              €143            €121              178           177               52               52

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Retailer Sales Data 104 wks. to 18 th November 2019

                                    Irish organic carrot growers are well represented in the retail market with
                                    relatively wide distribution across the retailers
Organic Irish Potatoes: Retailer and ROS Perf.
            Retailer/
                                    Dunnes               SuperValu                        Tesco                    Lidl                     Aldi              Centra
           Potato Type
                                                      SuperValu
                                                       Organic,
           Valor Organic
                                                       €1.50/kg, 2kg
                                                       (Irish)

                                                                                                                                     Aldi Organic,
          Imported Organic                                                                               Lidl Organic,
                                                                                                                                     €1.50/kg, 2kg
          Rooster Potatoes                                                                               €1.50/kg, 2kg (UK)
                                                                                                                                     (Scottish)

                                                                                              Indicative Value ROS/       Indicative Units ROS/      Number of weeks with
                                                                  Total Market Sales
                                                                                                   Store/ Week                 Store/ Week                  Sales
                               Item Level
                                                                       52 weeks to 18th
                                                                                                  2018       2019             2018            2019     2018        2019
                                                                        November 2019

              Retailer Own Label ORGANIC POTATOES 2KG                   €4,142,391                €134       €140             76              71       52           52

           Retailer Own Label ORGANIC BABY POTATOES 750G                €1,209,290                €76        €58              39              29       52           52

                    ORGANIC NEW POTATOES 1.5KG                              €40                   €4          €4               1               1        2              2

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Retailer Sales Data 104 wks. to 18 th November 2019

                                 Supervalu is the only retailer which had Irish organic potatoes in store. There is
                                 opportunity to develop an Irish organic variant of the Rooster. Aldi and Lidl are
                                 currently the only retailer to have an organic Rooster which is imported.
Organic Onions ROS Perf. 2018-19
         Ranked by Value ROS 2019
              Retailer/
                                          Dunnes                  SuperValu                      Tesco                      Lidl                  Aldi                    Centra
             Onion Type
                                                             SuperValu Organic,         Tesco Organic,
           Imported Organic
                                                             €2.39/kg, 750g             €1.32/kg, 750g
             Brown Onion
                                                             (Netherlands)              (Holland)

           Conventional Irish      Dunnes, €1.25/kg,                                                                                      Aldi, €1.19/kg, 750g
             Brown Onion           800g (Ireland)                                                                                         (Ireland)

                                                                                                              Indicative Value ROS/   Indicative Units ROS/      Number of weeks with
                                                                                   Total Market Sales
                                                                                                                   Store/ Week             Store/ Week                  Sales
                                       Item Level

                                                                                  52 weeks to 18th November
                                                                                                                2018         2019       2018          2019         2018            2019
                                                                                             2019

                           ORGANIC BROWN ONIONS 750G                                   €1,852,111               €69          €72        95             79          52              52

                  Retailer Own Label RED ORGANIC ONIONS 500G                             €657,803               €44          €45        32             25          52              52

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Retailer Sales Data 104 wks. to 18th November 2019

                                There were no organic Irish onions supplied in store at the time of auditing.
                                The organic onions for sale were imported from Holland, the Netherlands and Spain.
                                There is an opportunity for organic onion growers to supply onions to retailers, with
                                the greatest opportunity in brown onions.
Organic Broccoli ROS Perf. 2018-19
       Ranked by Value ROS 2019
            Retailer/
                                   Dunnes                SuperValu                     Tesco                    Lidl                    Aldi                 Centra
             Type
                                                     SuperValu Organic,                                 Lidl Organic,           Aldi Organic,
        Imported Organic
                                                     €4.98/kg, 400g                                     €3.73/kg, 400g          €3.73/kg, 400g
            Broccoli
                                                     (Spain)                                            (Spain)                 (Spain)

          Standard Irish                                                                                Lidl, €1.78, 500g
             Broccoli                                                                                   (Ireland)

                                                                                               Indicative Value ROS/        Indicative Units ROS/   Number of weeks with
                                                                          Total Market Sales
                                                                                                    Store/ Week                  Store/ Week               Sales
                                Item Level
                                                                            52 weeks to 18th
                                                                                                 2018            2019         2018         2019       2018        2019
                                                                             November 2019

              T.ORGANIC TENDER STEM BROCCOLI 200G                             €721,350            €0             €95            -           40          -             30

              Retailer Own Label ORGANIC BROCCOLI 400G                       €1,264,170          €62             €59           44           41         52             52

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Retailer Sales Data 104 wks. to 18 th November 2019

                              There will soon be capabilities to produce an Organic Broccoli in Ireland. There was
                              currently no Irish Organic Broccoli in stores audited.
                              Despite Tender Stem Broccoli generating a higher value ROS due to its higher price,
                              production in Ireland is likely to be more challenging and seasonal.
Organic Celery ROS Performance, 2018-19
       Ranked by Value ROS 2019
              Retailer/
                                     Dunnes                SuperValu                     Tesco                       Lidl                       Aldi                     Centra
               Type
                                                                                Tesco Organic,                                         Aldi Organic,
          Imported Organic                             SuperValu Organic,                                   Lidl Organic, €1.29, 1
                                                                                €5.11/kg, 350g                                         €3.69/kg, 350g
               Celery                                  €1.99, 1 Bag (Spain)                                 Unit (Spain)
                                                                                (Spain)                                                (Spain)

                                                                                Tesco, €1.76/kg,            Lidl, €1.98/kg, 400g       Aldi Egan’s, €1.98/kg,
        Standard Irish Celery
                                                                                450g (Ireland)              (Ireland)                  400g (Ireland)

                                                                                                   Indicative Value ROS/           Indicative Units ROS/        Number of weeks with
                                                                          Total Market Sales
                                                                                                        Store/ Week                     Store/ Week                    Sales
                                  Item Level

                                                                              52 weeks to 18th
                                                                                                     2018            2019            2018          2019           2018        2019
                                                                               November 2019

                    Retailer Own Label ORGANIC CELERY                          €1,463,616            €74             €86              44           49              46             38

                 T.ORGANIC EAST ANGLIAN CELERY EACH                                 €9                €0              €2                    -          1                 -        1

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Retailer Sales Data 104 wks. to 18 th November 2019

                                Organic celery has the 3rd highest value ROS in organic and is imported.
                                There should be an attractive opportunity to displace imported supply with an Irish
                                variant.
Organic Cauliflower ROS Perf., 2018-19
        Ranked by Value ROS 2019
              Retailer/
                                      Dunnes                SuperValu                   Tesco                   Lidl                   Aldi                  Centra
               Type
                                                                                 Tesco Organic,
          Imported Organic
                                                                                 €2.99, 1 Unit
            Cauliflower
                                                                                 (Spain)

          Conventional Irish    Dunnes, €1.29, 1 Unit                                                                         Aldi, €1.29, 1 Unit
            Cauliflower         (Ireland)                                                                                     (Ireland)

                                                                                                  Indicative Value ROS/   Indicative Units ROS/     Number of weeks with
                                                                         Total Market Sales
                                                                                                       Store/ Week             Store/ Week                 Sales
                                  Item Level

                                                                            52 weeks to 18th
                                                                                                    2018        2019        2018          2019        2018        2019
                                                                             November 2019

                          ORGANIC CAULIFLOWER EACH                           €1,089,386             €69         €52          24            18          52             48

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Retailer Sales Data 104 wks. to 18 th November 2019

                                   Organic cauliflower was on sale in SuperValu and Tesco however neither of these
                                   were Irish. There is an opportunity for Irish organic growers to displace imported
                                   produce
Organic Cabbage ROS Performance, 2018-19
        Ranked by Value ROS 2019
              Retailer/
                                     Dunnes                  SuperValu                       Tesco                    Lidl                 Aldi                  Centra
               Type
          Imported Organic                             SuperValu Organic,
             Cabbage                                   €1.99, 1 Unit (Holland)

           Conventional        Dunnes, €1.99, 1 Unit   SuperValu, €1.99, 1            Tesco, €1.99, 1
        Sweetheart Cabbage     (Ireland)               Unit (Ireland)                 Unit (Ireland)

                                                                                                        Indicative Value ROS/   Indicative Units ROS/   Number of weeks with
                                                                             Total Market Sales
                                                                                                             Store/ Week             Store/ Week               Sales
                                  Item Level

                                                                                 52 weeks to 18th
                                                                                                          2018        2019        2018        2019        2018        2019
                                                                                  November 2019

             Retailer Own Label ORGANIC SEASONAL CABBAGE                            €61,010               €12         €10          6              5        42             25

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Retailer Sales Data 104 wks. to 18 th November 2019

                             SuperValu was the only retailer to offer organic cabbage at the time of audit
                             indicating that availability for this type of product is poor.
                             Cabbage has a similar ROS to Cauliflower in conventional produce indicating a good
                             opportunity if Irish suppliers can develop a supply of organic cabbage.
Summary of Organic Field Vegetable Opportunities
€17m by Developing New Organic Supplies
 Product - Size of       Opportunity        Indicative Unit    Target Price Point   Total Retail Market       Potential           Total Volume
the prize based on                         ROS Per Store Per                         Size of the Prize    Foodservice Sales    (Retail & F/service)
       1 line                                    Week                                                      @ 25% of Retail

 Potato – Organic                                 70                 €3.50                €7.4m                1.1m kg               4.5m kg
                      Develop an organic
 Irish Rooster 2kg                                                                       4.2m kg
                        Irish Rooster
        pack

Onion Brown Onion                                 79                 €0.99                 €2m                 0.4m kg               1.9m kg
      750g                                                                               1.5m kg

  Broccoli 400g                                   40                 €1.40                €1.9m                135k kg               675k kg
                                                                                         540k kg
   Celery 350g                                    50                 €1.76                €2.5m                125k kg               625k kg
                       Develop an Irish                                                  500k kg

   Cauliflower          organic supply            18                 €2.89                €1.7m            143k cauliflowers    715k cauliflowers
                                                                                     572k cauliflowers

   Sweetheart                                     18                 €1.99               €890k              112k cabbages        560k cabbages
    Cabbage                                                                          448k Cabbages

 Courgette 3 Pack                                 26                 €2.22               €1.2m             0.4m courgettes       2m courgettes
                                                                                     1.6m courgettes

                     Key Opportunities:
                     Develop a supply of Irish organic products focusing on the best selling lines
Organic Protected Veg. Retail Market ROS Perf. Ranked
         by Value 2018-2019
                                                                                                                                        Number of weeks
                                                      Total Market Sales    Indicative Value Indicative Units ROS/   Number of weeks      with Sales
                                                             2019          ROS/ Store/ Week       Store/ Week          with Sales      (Conventional Veg
                     Protected Vegetables                                                                                                Leading Line)
                                                        52 weeks to 18th
                                                         November 2019
                                                                                 2019                2019                 2019               2019

                               Spinach                  €4,580,614              € 82                  30                   52                 52
                              Cucumber                  €2,258,463              € 107                120                   52                 52
                                 Garlic                 €1,791,487              € 32                  21                   52                 30
                                Tomato                  €1,602,430              € 66                  30                   52                 52
                                Pepper                  €1,296,792              € 80                  33                   52                 52
                              Mushroom                  €1,079,452              € 37                  29                   52                 52

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019

                                    A key focus should be for suppliers to develop an Irish supply of the best
                                    performing lines in terms of ROS; Spinach, Cucumber, Pepper and Tomato
Retail Market Opportunity By Protected Vegetable Type
                                               Good Availability by
                                                    Retailer
              Develop Varieties

  Limited                                                                                         Good
 Range –                                                                                          Range
Opportunity
 for more              CucumberTomatoes
 varieties

                       Spinach Peppers

              Develop Irish Supply                                             Improve Supply
                                               Poor Availability by
                                                    Retailer

                      The focus for protected vegetables is to improve supply of key crops by
                      extending the availability across the year.
                                                                                                132
Organic Peppers ROS Performance, 2018-19
         Ranked by Value ROS 2019
              Retailer/
                                     Dunnes                  SuperValu                    Tesco                    Lidl               Aldi             Centra
               Type
                                                                                                           Lidl Organic,      Aldi Organic,
          Imported Organic                             SuperValu Organic,
                                                                                                           €4.98/kg, 400g     €7.96/kg, 250g
              Pepper                                   €1.29, 1 Unit (Spain)
                                                                                                           (Spain)            (Spain)

          Conventional Irish                           SuperValu, €0.99, 1
              Pepper                                   Unit (Ireland)

                                                                                Total Market      Indicative Value ROS/ Indicative Units ROS/ Number of weeks with
                                                                                   Sales               Store/ Week           Store/ Week             Sales
                                 Item Level
                                                                               52 weeks to 18th
                                                                                                    2018           2019     2018         2019   2018        2019
                                                                               November 2019

               Retailer Own Label ORGANIC PEPPER 250G                            €1,296,792          €96           €80      45            33    52              52

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Retailer Sales Data 104 wks. to 18 th November 2019

                                There is an established market for Organic peppers, however growing at a cost-
                                effective level in Ireland is likely to be challenging.
                                Aldi, Supervalu, Tesco and Lidl have organic peppers in their range however none of
                                these were Irish – all were imported from Spain.
Organic Tomatoes ROS Performance, 2018-19
         Ranked by Value ROS 2019
               Retailer/
                                          Dunnes                    SuperValu                   Tesco                Lidl                   Aldi                  Centra
                Type
           Imported Organic                                   SuperValu, €6.23/kg,
             Vine Tomato                                      400g (Spain)

           Conventional Irish      Dunnes, €4.44/kg,          SuperValu, €7.48/kg,
             Vine Tomato           450g (Ireland)             450g (Ireland)

                                                                                      Total Market      Indicative Value ROS/ Indicative Units ROS/ Number of weeks with
                                                                                         Sales               Store/ Week           Store/ Week             Sales
                                      Item Level
                                                                                     52 weeks to 18th
                                                                                                          2018       2019       2018          2019        2018         2019
                                                                                     November 2019

           Retailer Own Label ORGANIC VINE TOMATO 500G                                 €1,307,174          €79       €80               33            33          52           52
          Retailer Own Label ORGANIC BABY PLUM TOMATOES
                                250G                                                    €295,251           €57       €45               35            26          52           30

                 ORGANIC IOW CHERRY TOMATOES 250G                                          €5              €5         €0               4             1           3            1

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Retailer Sales Data 104 wks. to 18th November 2019

                                     An Irish organic tomato is not likely to be price competitive vs imported lines
                                     Existing imported organic tomatoes are cheaper than Irish tomatoes currently
                                     For this to be an opportunity Irish organic tomatoes would have to be cheaper than
                                     conventional Irish tomatoes in order to displace imported lines
Organic Cucumber ROS Performance, 2018-19
        Ranked by Value ROS 2019
              Retailer/
                                     Dunnes                 SuperValu                 Tesco                       Lidl                    Aldi                   Centra
               Type
          Imported Organic                                                                               Lidl, €0.99, 1 Unit
             Cucumber                                                                                    (Spain)

          Conventional Irish                                                                             Lidl, €0.59, 1 Unit                             Centra, €0.99, 1 Unit
             Cucumber                                                                                    (Ireland)                                       (Ireland)

                                                                                                Indicative Value ROS/          Indicative Units ROS/   Number of weeks with
                                                                         Total Market Sales
                                                                                                     Store/ Week                    Store/ Week               Sales
                                  Item Level

                                                                          52 weeks to 18th
                                                                                                  2018            2019           2018        2019        2018          2019
                                                                          November 2019

                       ORGANIC WHOLE CUCUMBER                                €2,258,463           €113            €107              162          120            52            52

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Retailer Sales Data 104 wks. to 18 th November 2019

                               Organic cucumbers has the highest ROS amongst organic protected vegetables making it an
                               attractive opportunity for Irish producers
                               There were no Irish organic cucumbers in store when audited
                               If Irish growers can produce organic cucumbers cost effectively, there is a sizable opportunity
Organic Spinach ROS Performance, 2018-19
        Ranked by Value ROS 2019
              Retailer/
                                      Dunnes                SuperValu                    Tesco                         Lidl                    Aldi                  Centra
               Type
          Imported Organic      Dunnes, €23.98/kg,     SuperValu, €12.95/kg,       Tesco, €14.95/kg,
              Spinach           125g (EU)              200g (Italy)                200g (Italy)

        Conventional Spinach                           SuperValu, €6.45/kg,                                   Lidl, €4.45/kg, 200g     Aldi, €4.36/kg, 250g
             (No Irish)                                200g (Italy)                                           (Italy)                  (Italy)

                                                                               Total Market      Indicative Value ROS/ Indicative Units ROS/ Number of weeks with
                                                                                  Sales               Store/ Week           Store/ Week             Sales
                                  Item Level

                                                                              52 weeks to 18th
                                                                                                       2018            2019          2018         2019        2018        2019
                                                                              November 2019

                  Retailer Own Label ORGANIC SPINACH                            €4,320,251             €126           €106           44            36         49              52

           Retailer Own Label ORGANIC BABY SPINACH 100G                          €260,363              €0              €40            -            20          -              30

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Retailer Sales Data 104 wks. to 18 th November 2019

                               Organic Spinach locally grown could be a large opportunity, but may require
                               CAPEX for increased protected space.
Summary of Organic Protected Veg Opportunities
€9.4m by developing new supplies
 Product - Size of    Opportunity        Indicative Unit    Target Price Point   Total Retail Market       Potential          Total Volume
the prize based on                      ROS Per Store Per                         Size of the Prize    Foodservice Sales   (Retail & F/service)
       1 line                                 Week                                                      @ 25% of Retail

  Peppers 250g                                 33                 €2.43                €1.9m                50k kg               248k kg
                                                                                      198k kg

    Cucumber         Develop an Irish         120                 €0.97               €2.8m             0.7m cucumbers      3.6m cucumbers
                      organic supply                                              2.9m cucumbers

  Spinach 200g                                 36                 €2.95                €4.7m                79k kg               396k kg
                                                                                      317k kg

                      Key Opportunities:
                      Develop a supply of Irish organic products focusing on the best selling lines.
                      There could be an additional small opportunity for organic tomatoes.
Industry Expert Opinions: Organic
Challenges      • A highly fragmented market, mostly due to requirement to rotate crops,
                  resulting in relatively small crop sizes of multiple crops from one farm.

Opportunities   • There is current high demand from consumers.
                • Future demand is going to be consumer driven. The plant based
                  consumer will soon want pesticide free too.
                • Collaboration is required between producers and supermarkets, working
                  with them to develop solutions.
Enablers        • Development of producer organisations could stimulate growth.
                • There has been little research devoted to organic.
Customer Opportunities for Organic
Retail                                 Foodservice                            Amenity

• Focus on better availability of      • Demand from workplace                • Some demand for organic
  volume areas: Potatoes,                catering pulling through               vegetable plants (6).
  Carrots, Broccoli, Cabbage,            the supply chain.
  Onion & Cauliflower (1)              • Higher end restaurants
• Vegetables the particular              and independents willing
  focus area (2)                         to make the effort.
• Onions, Cabbage & Tomatoes
  (3)

                       1 – Aldi, 2 – Musgraves, 3 – Dunnes, 4 – Beechlawn, 5 – Glanbia, 6 – Aurivo,
                       7 – Pallas, 8 – Total Produce, 9 – Milnes, 10 – Richardsons.                   139
Customer Opportunities for Organic
•   Dunnes were particularly supportive of Organic produce, citing consumer
    complaints for not offering a broad enough range

•   They are willing to consider anything organic. They see particular demand for local
    produce (and premium products) at regional stores, specifically West Coast or
    Ireland and Dublin

•   Aldi were vocal that most organic produce is currently imported and that they don’t
    have a local organic partner. Developing Irish Organic is an attractive opportunity
    that they would be keen to explore

                     1 – Aldi, 2 – Musgraves, 3 – Dunnes, 4 – Beechlawn, 5 – Glanbia, 6 – Aurivo,
                     7 – Pallas, 8 – Total Produce, 9 – Milnes, 10 – Richardsons.                   140
Key Points: All organic vegetables
•   Irish Carrots are the most established organic crop

•   Opportunities were identified for organic field crops:
       •   Potatoes,
       •   Broccoli & Cauliflower
       •   Celery

•   Organic protected crop opportunities
       •   Tomatoes & Cucumbers
       •   Spinach
       •   Mushrooms

                                                             141
Market Overview: Fruit
Irish Retail Market, Fresh Fruit Sales 2017-2019
                                        Value                                                            Volume

                 900.0                                                                   300.0
                                                                                                 276.7             272.7             277.9   Yr on Yr %
                                                                   793.2
                 800.0        757.0              765.0                                                                                        Growth
                                                                                         250.0
                 700.0

                                                                           Million KGs
                 600.0                                                                   200.0
           €m

                                                         +3.7%                                                             +1.9%
                 500.0                                   2018-19                                                           2018-19
                                       +1.1%                                             150.0
                 400.0                 2017-18
                                                                                                         -1.4%
                                                                                                         2017-18
                 300.0                                                                   100.0

                 200.0
                                                                                          50.0
                 100.0

                   0.0                                                                     0.0
                              2017               2018              2019                          2017              2018              2019

Source: Kantar Worldpanel 52 w/e 29th December 2019

                                      The fresh fruit market is similar in size to fresh vegetables
                                      Fresh fruit sales are performing better and are in growth recovering from a
                                      decline in volume sales 2017-2018
Irish Retail Market, Total Fruit Sales by Fruit Type 2019
                                                              Total Market
                                                                                                              Total Market Unit
                                                            Value Sales (‘000)
                                                                                                                Sales (‘000)
                                                            based on Leading
                                           Value Sales 2019                                   Volume Sales kg based on Retailer                 A Key Imported
              Product           Type                          Retailer Sales   Value Growth %                                   Volume Growth %
                                                 (‘000)                                         2019 (‘000)     Sales using                          Line
                                                              using Kantar
                                                                                                               Kantar Volume
                                                               Value Share
                                                                                                                Share (2019)
                                                                  (2019)
               Citrus          Tropical       € 100,459         € 90,207              0.8         45,415           67,691              1.3
              Banana           Tropical        € 85,620         € 88,083              2.0         61,974           70,186              1.4
            Strawberry        Protected       € 109,759         € 69,889              8.7         12,051           22,312              7.4             X
               Apples         Top Fruit       € 138,553         € 68,238              2.0         60,288           48,610             -3.6             X
              Grapes           Tropical        € 98,715         € 54,700              4.1         21,266           23,061              6.9
             Blueberry        Protected        € 64,996         € 52,218             -0.3          4,642           25,958             -2.5             X
             Raspberry        Protected        € 41,069         € 32,044              8.8          2,410           14,118              9.8             X
           Tropical Fruits     Tropical        € 60,739         € 29,522             -6.5         35,024           20,850             -3.9
               Pears          Top Fruit        € 30,281         € 14,110             -4.8         17,563           13,639             -3.5             X
             Nectarine        Stonefruit        € 8,799          € 6,453             -26           3,476            5,257            -14.6
               Plums          Stonefruit        € 8,805          € 4,129            -18.6          5,261            4,546            -12.5
              Peaches         Stonefruit        € 7,236          € 3,754            -20.2          3,260            2,582             -0.6
             Blackberry       Protected         € 8,468          € 2,898             21.3           498             1,256               7              X
              Cherries        Stonefruit        € 5,292          € 2,573             47.8           954             1,348              8.8             X
              Apricots        Stonefruit        € 1,574            € 900            -10.3           867              976               5.9
           Other Berries      Protected         € 9,253            € 599            -15.9           689              254             -14.8
              Rhubarb           Field            € 907             € 429             88.2           422              316             38.4
Source: Kantar Worldpanel 52 w/e 8th September 2019/ Retailer Data 52 w/e 18th November 2019
                             A significant proportion of sales are derived from produce that is typically grown abroad Apple,
                             Strawberries and Raspberries are attractive segments (relatively large and/or good growth)
                             Blueberries is another relatively large segment but has experienced little growth
                             Pears is the least attractive in terms of size (Smaller than berries) and in decline
Foodservice, Fruit. Market Sizes, Fresh, Frozen and
     Ambient, OBP*, 2017
                                        100.0                     95.0
                                         90.0

                                         80.0

                                         70.0

                                         60.0                                                            53.0
                                         50.0

                                         40.0

                                         30.0

                                         20.0
                                                                                                                                           27.2
                                         10.0

                                          0.0
                                                               Value €m                      Volume M kg Consumed Volume      Estimated Foodservice Operators
                                                                                                   (Finished Weight)       Purchased Volumes - Fresh Only (M kg)

Source: Irish Foodservice Produce Market Insights, 2017, *ROI & NI *OBP Operator Buying Prices

                                Fruit is the smallest segment within foodservice vs potatoes and vegetables
                                Fresh fruit sales equate to 10% of total retail sales
Key Points for Bord Bia
•   Fresh fruit is a large attractive market in retail experiencing steady growth
        ‒   Exotic fruit is prominent in the market capturing a large proportion of sales and is
            strong competition for domestic produce
        ‒   However, there are clear growth trends for Irish producers to capitalise on such as the
            growing demand for berries

•   There are clear areas of focus for Irish producers in fruit in Top Fruit and Soft Fruit

•   Apples is a key volume segment in retail and foodservice - indicating a good
    opportunity for Irish producers if they can deliver a consistently good product

                                                                                                170
Market Opportunities & Feedback:
Organic Fruit
Organic Grocery Retail Market, Total Fruit Sales 2018-2019
                                             Value                                            Volume

                  45.00                                                       25.00
                                                                                                        22.77   Yr on Yr %
                                                       39.07
                  40.00                                                                                          Growth
                                                                              20.00   19.46
                  35.00            33.70

                                                                  Units (m)
                  30.00
                                             +15.9%                           15.00           +17.0%
           €m

                  25.00
                                             2018-19                                          2018-19
                  20.00
                                                                              10.00
                  15.00

                  10.00                                                        5.00
                   5.00

                   0.00                                                        0.00
                                   2018                2019                           2018              2019

Source: Retailer Data 52 w/e 18th November 2019

                                      Organic fruit retail sales reached an estimated €39m in 2019
                                      The market has experienced good growth over the period
Organic Grocery Retail Market, Fruit Value Sales by
    Product Type, 2019
                                           +23.6%
                                                                                         % Value           % Share
                                            80.3%                                        Growth            of Value
                      €35
                                           €31.4
                      €30

                      €25
           €m

                      €20
                                                                 -8.2%
                      €15
                                                                 19.5%                    +103.6%
                      €10                                          €7.6                      0.3%
                       €5
                                                                                              €0.1
                       €0
                                         Exotic Fruit            Top Fruit               Protected Fruit

Source: Retailer Data 52 w/e 18th November 2019

                                  Exotic fruit accounts for the highest proportion of value sales in organic
                                  fruits, highlighting that top fruit and protected fruit are under represented in
                                  this category
Standard Grocery Retail Market, Fruit Value Sales
         by Product Type, 2019
                                     -2.6%
                                                                                     % Value           % Share
                                     44.7%             +3.4%                         Growth            of Value
                     €250
                                      €224.2           35.9%

                     €200
                                                       €180.0
                                                                        -4.3%
                     €150                                               17.6%
           €m

                     €100                                                €88.5
                                                                                           -0.4%
                                                                                               1.8%
                      €50

                                                                                               €9.1
                       €0
                                    Exotic Fruit    Protected Fruit     Top Fruit              Other

Source: Retailer Data 52 w/e 18th November 2019

                               When comparing with standard fruit, the under-representation of protected fruit
                               and top fruit in organic is further evident, especially in protected fruit which
                               accounts for 36% of standard fruit sales but less than 1% of organic
Organic Grocery Retail Market, Fruit ROS Performance,
         Ranked by Value ROS, 2018-2019
                                                                                                                                     Number of
                                                                                                   Indicative Value Indicative Units
                                                                  Total Market Sales 2019                                            weeks with
                                     Top Fruit                                                    ROS/ Store/ Week ROS/ Store/ Week
                                                                                                                                       Sales
                                                                 52 weeks to 18th November 2019          2019            2019          2019
                                         Apple                         €4,491,931                       €71                31              52
                                          Pear                         €1,069,791                       €67                24              52

                                                                                                                                        Number of
                                                                                                  Value ROS/ Store/ Units ROS/ Store/
                                                                  Total Market Sales 2019                                               weeks with
                                Protected Fruit                                                         Week              Week
                                                                                                                                          Sales
                                                                 52 weeks to 18th November 2019         2019              2019            2019
                                       Blueberry                          €72,098                       €25                9               33
                                      Strawberry                             €16                         €1                0                1

Source: Retailer Data 52 w/e 18th November 2019

                                      Availability is an issue for key lines such as Blueberries and
                                      Strawberries which are not on sale throughout the year. There is also
                                      currently poor availability of organic raspberries
Organic Apples ROS Performance, 2018-19
       Ranked by Value ROS 2019
             Retailer/
                                     Dunnes           SuperValu                 Tesco                    Lidl                     Aldi                   Centra
              Type
                                                                         Tesco Organic, €2.69,
                                                                         4 Pack (UK)
          Imported Organic
            Gala Apples
                                                                         Tesco Organic, €2.19,
                                                                         6 Pack (Austria)

         Standard Irish Jona                                                                                             Aldi Organic, €1.49, 4
            Gold Apples                                                                                                  Pack (Ireland)

                                                               Total Market
                                                                              Indicative Value ROS/ Store/   Indicative Units ROS/ Store/
                                                                  Sales                                                                     Number of weeks with Sales
                                                                                          Week                           Week
                                                               52 weeks to
                               Item Level
                                                                   18th
                                                                November          2018           2019           2018            2019              2018       2019
                                                                   2019

             Retailer Own Label ORGANIC GALA APPLES 630G       €2,543,488         €129           €109             62             53                52          52

        Retailer Own Label ORGANIC BRAEBURN APPLES 630G (C)       €843,465        €60            €70              24             25                40         48

        Retailer Own Label ORGANIC PINK LADY APPLES APPROX 4      €601,407        €82            €56              34             25                26          45

        Retailer Own Label ORGANIC EATING APPLE TRAY 4 PACK       €503,570        €39            €49              15             18                52         52

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019

                               There were no organic Irish apples supplied in store when audited in November
                               The best performing organic line is the 630g organic gala apples. A variety which is
                               close in flavour to Jona Gold underlining an opportunity for an organic variant
Organic Pears ROS Performance, 2018-19
       Ranked by Value ROS 2019
             Retailer/
                                     Dunnes      SuperValu               Tesco                     Lidl                     Aldi                Centra
              Type
                                                                   Tesco Organic,
          Imported Organic
                                                                   €5.44/kg, 550g
                Pear
                                                                   (Netherlands)

                                                                   Tesco Rocha Pear,
             Imported
                                                                   €4.64/kg, 580g
         Conventional Pear
                                                                   (Portugal)

                                                    Total Market
                                                                    Indicative Value ROS/ Store/   Indicative Units ROS/ Store/
                                                        Sales                                                                      Number of weeks with Sales
                                                                                Week                           Week
                             Item Level             52 weeks to
                                                   18th November
                                                        2019
                                                                       2018            2019               2018        2019            2018           2019

               ORGANIC RIPE & READY PEARS 550G       €1,069,791         €59             €67               29           24              52             52

Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019

                                  There were no Irish organic pears identified in the audits, highlighting a
                                  potential opportunity to develop an Irish supply
Organic Blueberries ROS Performance, 2018-19
       Ranked by Value ROS 2019
             Retailer/
                                     Dunnes                SuperValu                Tesco                      Lidl                     Aldi                 Centra
              Type

                                                                                                      Lidl Organic,
          Imported Organic
                                                                                                      €18.32/kg, 125g
            Blueberries
                                                                                                      (Argentina)

              Imported                                SuperValu,
                               Keelings, €23.92/kg,                          Keelings, €23.92/kg,     Lidl, €15.92/kg, 125g   Aldi, €13.20/kg, 125g
            Conventional                              €15.92/kg, 125g
                               125g (Peru)                                   125g (Peru)              (Peru)                  (South Africa)
             Blueberries                              (South Africa)

                                                              Total Market    Indicative Value ROS/ Store/     Indicative Units ROS/ Store/
                                                                                                                                               Number of weeks with Sales
                                                                  Sales                   Week                             Week
                             Item Level                       52 weeks to
                                                             18th November        2018              2019              2018        2019                2018       2019
                                                                  2019

          Retailer Own Label ORGANIC BLUEBERRIES 200G            €72,098          €64               €25               22            9                  7          33

         NB: There were no sales of imported Organic Strawberries or Raspberries.
Source: Levercliff Audits, November 2019, Dunnhumby 104 wks. to 18 th November 2019

                                  There is also potential to develop an organic supply of berries across
                                  Strawberries, Raspberries and Blueberries.
Customer Opportunities for Organic Fruit
Retail                             Foodservice                               Amenity
• Focus on better availability     • Some demand from higher                 • N/A
  of volume areas:                   end workplace catering
  Strawberries (1)                   pulling through the supply
• Strawberries are an interest       chain (4).
  for further development (3)      • Higher end restaurants and
                                     independents willing to
                                     make the effort (4).
                                   • Aiming for top 15 product
                                     lines to include organic
                                     options (7).

                      1 – Aldi, 2 – Musgraves, 3 – Dunnes, 4 – Beechlawn, 5 – Glanbia, 6 – Aurivo,
                      7 – Pallas, 8 – Total Produce, 9 – Milnes, 10 – Richardsons.
Summary of Organic Opportunities – Top Fruit
€2m by developing an Irish supply

Product - Size     Opportunity       Indicative Unit   Target Average    Total Retail       Potential     Total Volume
  of the prize                       ROS Per Store       Price Point    Market Size of    Foodservice       (Retail &
based on 1 line                         Per Week                          the Prize      Sales @ 10% of    F/service)
                                                                                             Retail

  Irish Apples                             30              €2.46           €1.1m           28,010 kg       308,108 kg
                                                                         280,098 kg

                  Develop an Irish
  Irish Pears         Supply               27              €2.79           €870k/          19,656 kg       216,216 kg
                                                                         196,560 kg

                     Key Opportunities
                     Displace imported supply of Apples and Pears
                     Whilst also improving availability of organic Apples
Summary of Organic Opportunities – Soft Fruit
€1.3m by developing Irish Supply
Product - Size      Opportunity       Indicative Unit   Target Average     Total Retail      Potential     Total Volume
  of the prize                        ROS Per Store     Price Point 30%   Market Size of    Foodservice      (Retail &
based on 1 line                         Per Week          Premium vs        the Prize      Sales @ 8% of    F/service)
                                                         Non Organic                           Retail

  Strawberries                              12              €3.34            €521k           2,833 kgs      30,596 kgs
      227g                                                                 28,330 kgs

  Raspberries                               12              €2.13            €332k           1,950 kgs      21,450 kgs
     125g          Develop an Irish                                        19,500 kgs
                       Supply

Blueberries 125g                            16              €2.41            €501k           2,600 kgs      28,600 kgs
                                                                           26,000 kgs

                       Key Opportunities
                       Displace imported supply of Blueberries
                       Developing a supply of organic Raspberries and Strawberries
Key Points for Bord Bia
•   Organic represents a clear opportunity for suppliers but much will depend
    on quality, pricing and volumes to be able to capitalise on demand
•   Top Fruit is the more established market for organic produce and
    potentially more attractive
       ‒   Apples represents a better opportunity for Irish producers to achieve a
           higher premium vs standard
       ‒   There is only a small organic premium for pear currently which potentially
           restricts the opportunity to displace the imported line for an Irish producer
•   Organic Soft Fruit is currently not as well developed, pricing is likely to be
    difficult to achieve especially for smaller suppliers
       ‒   Organic blueberries can be competitively priced vs standard blueberries

                                                                                           197
Themes, Initiatives & Opportunities
The importance of local
    Retail

             Local foods are a visible way to    Product functionality, availability
             demonstrate support for the local   and price is king, apart from
             economy, and differentiate from     some key lines (potatoes), local

                                                                                       Foodservice
             competitors.                        produce has to fight a tough
                                                 battle with imported produce

                                                                                                     253
Changing Growers’ Mindset
•   To maximise opportunities in the retail sector,
    farmers need to be encouraged to embrace
    change.
•   A more collaborative approach with supermarkets
    is required along with investment in their business
    and processes.
•   One of the industry experts referenced the need
    to embrace the ‘Who Moved My Cheese’
    philosophy, encouraging horticulture producers to
    utilise schemes such as ‘Plan to Grow’ and
    embracing new ways of growing and working in
    partnership with current and potential customers.

                                                          Source: Who Moved My Cheese, 1998

                                                                                              254
Develop Producer Brands
•   The presence of consumer facing brands was
    recognised by as a way to help retailers tell a
    clear producer story, allowing consumers to
    connect with the producer, and adding value to
    the product.
•   There are strong learnings from Amenity
    producers with ‘Bella Bloom’, and Flynn’s
    Tomatoes.

                                                      255
Stimulate Foodservice Demand
•   Foodservice suppliers expressed a concern that a
    significant recent increased use of ‘Procure Wizard’
    was negatively impacting demand for local produce.
    Increasingly, companies are purchasing purely on
    price comparisons, without valuing the origin of
    products.
•   Some larger blue chip companies, sustainability
    focused companies and high end restaurants are
    keen for local and organic, but they need nurturing.
•   There is a view that the public sector has an
    opportunity to lead by example,

                                                           256
Committing to Foodservice
•   Foodservice companies identified there is customer demand for Irish origin in some
    key products which command a price premium (i.e. Strawberries & Tomatoes), but
    that gaining consistent supply was challenging.
•   They recognised that foodservice is often a second choice to supplying retail
    multiples, and that there were some large opportunities if growers were willing to
    work in partnership directly with companies. Foodservice companies are willing to
    commit to flat prices across the season which could enable longer term planning.
•   Utilising Foodservice as a ‘clearance of surplus’ will only yield low prices and
    inconsistent supply

                                                                                       257
Learning from Mushrooms
•   Industry experts thought that the wider
    horticulture industry could take learnings
    from the successful Mushroom Industry.
        • Adopting technology that
             facilitates cost effective production
        • Developing solutions for the UK
             and wider export markets as the
             Irish market is too small to justify
             large-scale investment for some
             sectors.

                                                     258
Increasing Producer Organisations
•   Industry experts consider there to be an
    opportunity for more producers to form
    Producer Organisations. Existing
    organisations are gaining significant value
    from sharing information and resources.
•   Examples include:
       •   Sharing a full time technical resource
           between member companies
       •   Negotiating contracts with retailers as a
           collective

                                                       259
Encouraging New Entrants
•   A chronic shortage of new entrants into horticulture
    is limiting growth and aspiration in the industry.
•   Succession planning is an issue for existing
    operators, as the next generation is not always
    adopting the farm operations.
•   Apprenticeships, training programs have a poor
    uptake and need stimulus. Those entering programs
    typically are already within the industry via parents’
    businesses.
•   The industry needs to be more dynamic and
    attractive to younger entrants.

                                                             260
Fixing Staff Shortages
•   To significantly grow, the industry will require migrant
    workers as there are insufficient, willing, local workers
•   Next wave of migrant workers with correct work ethic
    who are willing, and incentivised to stay for an entire
    growing season.
•   Accommodation shortages a limiting factor, and
    growers need assistance to develop plans.
•   Brexit: 2021 immigration policies may act in Ireland’s
    favour with the UK policies likely to be tighter for
    unskilled migrant workers.

                                                                261
Embrace Incremental Gains
•   Product opportunities are likely to come
    from marginal gains across multiple
    product areas rather than totally new
    crops or solutions.
•   Extending the growing seasons, even
    marginally, could create significant
    opportunities.
•   Encouraging growers to take a ‘category
    view’ of their product area, identifying
    specific opportunities and planning
                                                 The Chinn family have successfully extended the
    accordingly will yield growth.             British Asparagus season with the use of poly tunnels

                                                                                               262
Maximising Protected Crops
•   Opens a wide range of possibilities.
•   Cost of production will likely be higher than
    abroad, so although there are opportunities,
    more premium lines are the likely focus
•   Utilising ‘waste heat’ can be a way to make
    production economical, but the heat
    requirements will be different for different
    types of crops.
•   Extending the season with early crops of
    Strawberries or Raspberries, or increased
    production of vine tomatoes are key
    opportunities.

                                                    263
Focus on Premium Crops
•   Irish produce is fairly well represented across different
    product types.
•   Future opportunities are likely to come from products
    where consumers perceive there to be added value in it
    being grown in Ireland:
        •   Supporting jobs and the economy (circular economy)
        •   More sustainable (improved growing techniques / organic)
        •   Better quality (fresher, better taste or performance)
        •   Innovative (flavours, appearance, varieties etc)
        •   Benefit from being ‘fresher’

                                                                       264
Below-Cost Selling
•   Produce has become a ‘battle-ground’ among
    large retailers, with key product lines becoming
    highly commoditised.
•   There is a viewpoint from industry experts that
    this ‘below-cost’ selling practice should be
    banned as it is eroding the value of Irish grown
    produce.

                                                       265
Quantifying ‘Sustainability’
•    There were suggestions that producers need to
     exploit Irish horticulture that is more sustainable
     than imported produce.
•    Communicating this to consumers on-pack could
     be a way of encouraging consumers to opt for
     more sustainable options.
•    Dunnes have employed a sustainability manager
     who is keen to work with suppliers to develop
     more sustainable solutions.

                                                           266
Anticipating the Organic Boom
•    Research suggested that consumers who have fuelled the rise in demand for plant-based foods will
     turn their attention to sustainability in the future. They are likely to want pesticide free foods as they
     opt for ‘cleaner’ and more sustainable products. While organic may be the simplest option for them,
     there is potential for a new ‘hybrid’ of unsprayed crops using integrated pest management (IPM).
•    Both Retailers and Foodservice companies expressed an interest in organics, recognising it is still
     relatively niche at present. Most retailers saw organic as a key growth area, with consistent double
     digit growth over 4 years. Comments included “We’re willing to consider anything organic”, However,
     also some caution “The organic price premium has been eroded, we’re keen to hear proposals on
     how varieties would command a premium.
•    There were suggestions that the support for new entrants via schemes such as freeing up farm land
     and encouraging organic conversion via the Organic Farming Scheme, new supplier programs and
     advisory support could stimulate organic production. Retailers do not think there is sufficient land
     available for Organics at present.

                                                                                                         267
Bord Bia Quality Marks
Retail                                        Foodservice                          Amenity
• It’s effective, but perhaps more            • Don’t actively use it              • Recognition has grown, but
  relevant on Meat than produce. (2)            unless it’s on products              it’s more relevant on food
• They insist that suppliers use it.            purchased. Would add                 products than plants. Carbon
  Would like to see more activity to            complexity. (9)                      emissions more important,
  support its use in amenity                  • Their customers don’t                could that be integrated in
  products, not just beef, lamb and             ask for it, but it gives             some way? (6)
  eggs. (1)                                     peace of mind when                 • Consumers know the mark,
• Activity needs to be more                     sourcing suppliers.                  but using a supplier brand is
  coordinated, i.e. promote produce                                                  preferable. The farm story is
  at the right time of year when it’s in                                             more important. (5)
  season. (3)

                            1 – Aldi, 2 – Musgraves, 3 – Dunnes, 4 – Beechlawn, 5 – Glanbia, 6 – Aurivo,
                            7 – Pallas, 9 – Milnes, 10 – Richardsons.                                        268
Opportunities – Indicative Timescales
                     2020       2021           2022            2023              2024
    Potatoes                       Queen / Baby
Vegetables – Field            R Onion / Cauli / Broc /                Organics
                            Cabbage / Beans / Asparagus
  Vegetables –                 Garlic             Tomatoes / Cucumbers / Peppers
   Protected                   (Poly)                         (Glass)
   Fruit – Field                              Cherries       Apples /
                                               (Poly)         Pears
 Fruit – Protected           Strawb / Rasp / Blueberries
     Organic                                               Strawb / Rasp     Apples /
                                                            / Blueberries     Pears
     Amenity                                Cut Flowers

                                                                                        269
Thank you for Listening

                          270
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