2020 Election Toolbox - A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections - Clark Hill PLC
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2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections June 23, 2020 Producer National Journal Presentation Center
Roadmap Presidential election Congressional elections Gubernatorial elections
Keys to the 2020 presidential election
Changing demographics in key states could make them more competitive
• Metropolitan areas in Texas are projected to double in population from 2010 to 2050
• Texas experienced the largest absolute growth in immigrant population of any state from 2000 to 2017
• If Clinton won Texas, she would have reached the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election
• Changing demographics in swing states such as Arizona and Florida will also play a role in the election outcome
Suburban districts may play an important role in 2020 elections
• Many suburban districts flipped from red to blue in the 2018 congressional midterm elections: of the 69 suburban
districts held by Republicans before the midterms, 37 voted for the Democratic House candidate
• These suburban voters could play a significant role in both the 2020 presidential election and 2020 congressional
races
President Trump’s approval rating has fluctuated due to the COVID-19 outbreak
• In estimates based on 2018 midterm exit polls and results, President Trump received strong approval ratings in
solidly red states and majority support in key states such as Georgia (51.0%), Texas (50.7%), and Florida (50.2%)
• However, the coronavirus outbreak led to an initial spike in approval followed by a fairly steady decrease since the
end of March 2020
A transition to virtual campaigns may impact candidate support
• In 2016 and following his election, rallies have played a major role in garnering support and boosting President
Trump’s campaign
• Trump has held 400 rallies since announcing his candidacy for the 2016 election and had been holding one or two
rallies each week prior to the shutdown due to the coronavirus outbreak
Sources: US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox, FiveThirtyEight, Washington Post.
Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020 3Potential 2020 electoral college scenarios based on
performance in swing states
PA WI NC GA
Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189
20 10 15 16
2016 election
outcome
MN MI FL AZ
10 16 29 11
PA WI FL GA
Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189
20 10 29 16
2018 Senate race
outcomes in swing
states
MN MI AZ NC*
10 16 11 15
PA WI NC GA
Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189
20 10 15 16
2% shift
towards Clinton
in swing states
MN MI FL AZ
10 16 29 11
PA WI NC GA
Clinton EC votes, 222 Trump EC votes, 189
20 10 15 16
4% shift
towards Clinton
in swing states
MN MI FL AZ
10 16 29 11
*North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2018 270 Electoral College votes needed to win
Sources: Swing states based on Cook Political Report rankings
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: May 28, 2019 4How does a recession impact a president’s reelection bid?
Recession in 2
Year years before President Reelection?
election?
6
1912 YES Taft NO
presidents since 1912
1916 NO Wilson YES
have faced a recession
1924 YES Coolidge YES within 2 years before their
1932 YES Hoover NO reelection bid
1936 NO FDR YES
1940 NO FDR YES 5 of those 6
1944 NO FDR YES presidents lost reelection
1948 NO Truman YES
1956 NO Eisenhower YES
1964 NO Johnson YES
1972 NO Nixon YES
1976 YES Ford NO
1980 YES Carter NO
1984 NO Reagan YES
1992 YES H.W. Bush NO
1996 NO Clinton YES
2004 NO W. Bush YES
2012 NO Obama YES
Sources: Mehlman Castagnetti
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: March 17, 2020 5President Trump has spent over $187 million during his presidential
campaign
Financial summary at the end of May 2020
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
■ Total receipts ■ Total disbursements ■ Ending cash on hand
$287
$215
$187
$133
$108
$82
Trump Biden
Sources: Federal Election Commission.
Slide last updated on: June 22, 2020 6Trump has spent more than double the amount that Biden’s
campaign has on Facebook spending
Spending between Jan. 5, 2019 and June 13, 2020
■ Facebook spending ■ Google spending Donald Trump Joe Biden
Facebook likes: 28 million Facebook likes: 2 million
Twitter followers: 82.3 million Twitter followers: 6.3 million
Instagram followers: 20.5 million Instagram followers: 2.5 million
26.2M
Targeted Facebook spending by demographic
■ Male ■ Female ■ Unknown
Biden 63.1% 35.8%
Trump 50.5% 48.7%
9.4M
45.4M ■ 13-24 ■ 25-44 ■ 45-64 ■ 65+
Biden 30.4% 39.3% 24.8%
21.8M
Trump 22.2% 45.7% 27.4%
Donald Trump Joe Biden
Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts
Sources: National Journal Research, Bully Pulpit Interactive.
Yanelle Cruz | Slide last updated on: June 22, 2020 7A number of major polls show Joe Biden with a lead over
President Trump
Head-to-head general election polls
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
■ Trump ■ Biden ■ Other/Neither ■ Undecided/Not sure ■ Wouldn’t vote/No one
Fox News
(June 13-16, 2020) 38 50 5 5 2
Monmouth University
(May 28-June 1, 41 52 5 11
2020)
ABC/Washington Post
(May 25-28, 2020) 43 53 1 1
NBC/WSJ
(May 28-June 2, 42 49 5 3
2020)
Sources: Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, Monmouth University.
Slide last updated on: June 23, 2020 8Roadmap Presidential election Congressional elections Gubernatorial elections
Keys to the 2020 congressional races
Keys to the Senate
• To gain majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to gain four seats or three seats and the presidency for power in a tie-break
• Out of the 35 seats up for reelection, 12 are currently held by Democrats and 23 are currently held by Republicans
• Four of the Republican seats are rated as Toss Up by The Cook Political Report (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina)
Multiple competitive races in one state has compounding effect
• In Arizona, the race between incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has become increasingly
competitive and Arizona’s role as a swing state in the presidential election will bring a slew of spending and effort to increase turnout
for both elections
• In North Carolina, the 2020 Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential race are all competitive
Senate Republicans mostly on defense for 2020
• The 2020 Senate election map put Senate Republicans on defense for this election
• Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), currently rated as Lean R, and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), currently rated as Lean D, seem to be the only
opportunity for Republicans to increase their majority in the Senate
• Senate Republicans and their allied PAC have reserved $94 million of air time for June 1st through election day on behalf of seven
incumbents
Keys to the House
• To win the majority in the House, Republicans must pick up 18 seats
• Out of the 22 seats rated as Toss Ups by The Cook Political Report, 16 belong to incumbent Democrats while six belong to incumbent
Republicans
• Out of the 88 seats rated as competitive, 50 belong to Democrats and 33 belong to Republicans
Democrats’ strong position in the House
• Heading into the 2020 election, about three times as many Republicans (27) will not seeking reelection as Democrats (10)
• Only one of these seats (Rep. Dave Loebsack (IA-2) is at risk of flipping from D to R
• Democrats hold a wide lead in most generic ballot polls and hold a strong advantage due to strong fundraising efforts at the
candidate level and weak recruitment efforts for House Republicans
Sources:
Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020 10Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing
party’s 2016 presidential candidate
■ Democratic senator Trump victory
Gary Peters (D) won in
■ Republican senator Clinton victory 2014 by 13.3%
WA
ME
MT ND VT
OR MN NH
ID SD WI NY
WY* MI Susan Collins (R) won in
IA PA 2014 by 37.0%
NE
NV
UT OH
IL IN
CA CO WV
Cory Gardner (R) KS* MO VA
won in 2014 by 1.9% KY
TN* NC
AZ OK
NM* AR SC
MS AL GA
Doug Jones (D) won in a 2017
AK TX LA special election by 1.5%
FL
HI
*Senators not seeking reelection in 2020
Democrats (12) Republicans (23)
Doug Jones (AL) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Dan Sullivan (AK) Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Lamar Alexander (TN)*
Chris Coons (DE) Cory Booker (NJ) Martha McSally (AZ) Joni Ernst (IA) Steve Daines (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC)
Dick Durbin (IL) Tom Udall (NM)* Tom Cotton (AR) Pat Roberts (KS)* Ben Sasse (NE) John Cornyn (TX)
Ed Markey (MA) Jeff Merkley (OR) Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) Thom Tillis (NC) Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
Gary Peters (MI) Jack Reed (RI) David Perdue (GA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Jim Inhofe (OK) Mike Enzi (WY)*
Tina Smith (MN) Mark Warner (VA) Kelly Loeffler (GA) Susan Collins (ME) Mike Rounds (SD)
Sources: United States Senate: Class II Roster
Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020 11Hotline: Only two Democratic Senate seats are in the top ten
most likely to flip party control
Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL
■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat
■ Top five states most likely to flip
1. Alabama:
7 5 • Incumbent: Doug Jones (D)
• Challengers: Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R),
former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R)
9 2. Colorado:
6 • Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R)
2 • Challengers: Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D), former
10 State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D),
4 3. Arizona:
3 • Incumbent: Martha McSally (R)
• Challengers: Veteran & retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D)
1 8
4. North Carolina:
• Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R)
• Challengers: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D)
5. Maine:
• Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)
6. Iowa — Joni Ernst (R) • Challengers: State House Speaker Sara Gideon (D),
former gov. candidate Betsy Sweet, attorney Bre Kidman
7. Montana — Steve Daines (R)
8. Georgia — Kelly Loeffler (R)
Georgia — David Perdue (R)
9. Michigan — Gary Peters (D)
10. Kansas — Open seat (R)
*List of challengers is not exhaustive
Sources: National Journal
Slide last updated on: May 19, 2020 12Hotline: Fourteen Democrat-held House seats are in the top 20
most likely to flip party control
Hotline’s 2020 House power rankings
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL
■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat
1. TX-23: Rep. Will Hurd (R)*
2. OK-5: Rep. Kendra Horn (D)
3. SC-1: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D)
4. NM-2: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D)
5. NY-22: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D)
6. GA-7: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)*
7. IA-1: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D)
8. GA-6: Rep. Lucy McBath (D)
9. MN-7: Rep. Collin Peterson (D)
10. IA-3: Rep. Cindy Axne (D)
11. ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D)
12. TX-24: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)*
13. NY-11: Rep. Max Rose (D)
14. CA-21: Rep. T.J. Cox (D)
15. PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R)
16. TX-7: Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D)
17. NJ-3: Rep. Andy Kim (D)
18. IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R)
19. CA-48: Rep. Harley Rouda (D)
20. TX-22: Rep. Pete Olson (R)*
* Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020
Sources: National Journal
Slide last updated on: March 18, 2020 13The national GOP committees have raised about $161 million
more than their Democratic counterparts so far
Total receipts by national party PACs
AS OF MAY 31, 2020
■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC
RNC $372,874,541
DCCC $190,701,986
DNC $174,753,273
NRCC $146,507,681
NRSC $119,599,909
DSCC $111,500,572
Total Dem $476,955,831
Total GOP $638,982,130
Sources: FEC
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 22, 2020 14Roadmap Presidential election Congressional elections Gubernatorial elections
Keys to 2020 gubernatorial races
Few possibilities for party flips
• Currently, Democrats hold 24 governorships while Republicans hold 26
• In the 2020 elections, seven GOP seats are up for election while four Democratic seats are up for election
• However, only two seats are likely to possibly flip parties (NC-Cooper (D) and MT-Open (D))
• Montana’s seat is open because incumbent Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is term-limited
High visibility during COVID-19 outbreak could favor incumbents
• State response has been in the spotlight during the COVID-19 outbreak, leading to coverage of governors and more
exposure to the public
• In multiple public polls, most governors have a higher approval rating than President Trump on their handling of
the coronavirus
Governorships do not always align with partisanship for other offices
• Presidential and Senate elections do not necessarily indicate which party will win the governor seat in a state
• Although President Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016, Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) won his election
although it was a slimmer margin
• Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) (up for reelection in 2022) has won two consecutive gubernatorial elections despite
Maryland electing two Democratic senators and Democrats winning the state in presidential elections since 1992
• This indicates that voters may be willing to split the ticket for gubernatorial elections
North Carolina is home to many competitive races in 2020
• In addition to having a gubernatorial race rated as Lean D by The Cook Political Report, North Carolina also has a
competitive Senate race, is considered a presidential swing state, and has three competitive House races in 2020
• An influx of spending, ads, and efforts from campaigns and outside groups will work to raise voter registration,
turnout, and support for their respective sides in 2020
Sources: Cook Political Report, Ballotpedia,
Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020 16There are only two open seats up for election in 2020
2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status
■ Dem. incumbent (3) ■ Dem. open* (1)
■ GOP incumbent (6) ■ GOP open* (1)
WA
ME
MT ND VT
OR MN NH
ID SD WI NY
WY MI
IA PA
NE MA
NV
UT OH
IL IN
CO WV RI
CA VA
KS MO
KY CT
NC
TN NJ
AZ OK
NM AR SC
DE
MS AL GA
MD
TX LA
AK
DC
FL
HI
*“Open seats” are governorships where incumbent governors are term-limited, they have announced that they are not running for re-election, or lost their primary
Sources: Cook Political Report, 2019
Slide last updated on: Dec. 13, 2019 17You can also read
