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2020 Presidential
Election Outlook
October 2019
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL. This document is being distributed to you for your information only as a
client of Goldman Sachs and should not be distributed to others. This document is not a product of
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The material contained herein has been prepared and is
1 based on information obtained by us from publicly available sources.
2020 Presidential Election:
The Democratic Field Candidates who have
qualified for the fourth debate
Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Joe Sestak Marianne Williamson Tom Steyer Amy Klobuchar
78 yo. Senator 77 yo. Fmr. VP 70 yo. Senator 67 yo. Fmr. Congressman 66 yo. Author 62 yo. Fmr. CEO/Activist 59 yo. Senator
VT DE MA PA TX CA MN
John Delaney Michael Bennet Kamala Harris Steve Bullock Cory Booker Beto O’Rourke Julian Castro
56 yo. Fmr. Congressman 55 yo. Senator 55 yo. Senator 53 yo. Governor 50 yo. Senator 47 yo. Fmr. Congressman 45 yo. Fmr. HUD Secretary
MD CO CA MT NJ TX TX
Tim Ryan Wayne Messam Andrew Yang Seth Moulton Tulsi Gabbard Pete Buttigieg
45 yo. Congressman 44 yo. Mayor 44 yo. Businessman 41 yo. Congressman 38 yo. Congresswoman 37 yo. Mayor
OH FL NY MA HI IN
2
The First Tier Second Quarter Fundraising National Democratic Primary 1. Buttigieg $24.9 Million 1. Biden 31% 2. Biden $22.0 Million 2. Warren 25% 3. Warren $19.2 Million 3. Sanders 14% 4. Sanders $18.0 Million 4. Buttigieg 7% 5. Harris $11.8 Million 5. Harris 5% 6. Booker $4.5 Million 6. Yang 4% 3 | Source: Federal Election Commission; NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll (September 2019)
National Depth of Support
First Choice + Second Choice = TOTAL
Warren 25% + 21% = 46%
Biden 31% + 11% = 42%
Sanders 14% + 16% = 30%
Buttigieg 7% + 12% = 19%
Harris 5% + 8% = 13%
4 | Source: Federal Election Commission; NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll (July 2019)
The Ideological Divide Liberal Democrats Moderate and Conservative Democrats (~48% of primary voters) (~49% of primary voters) 1. Warren 36% 1. Biden 42% 2. Biden 19% 2. Warren 15% 2. Sanders 19% 3. Sanders 7% 4. Harris 7% 4. Buttigieg 7% 5 | Source: NBC News / WSJ Poll (September 2019)
The Generational Divide
18-34 Year Olds 35-49 Year Olds
Sanders Warren Yang Biden Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg
33% 25% 11% 10% 28% 24% 17% 9%
50-64 Year Olds 65+ Year Olds
Biden Warren Buttigieg Sanders Biden Warren Buttigieg Sanders
39% 25% 6% 3% 46% 25% 7% 2%
6 | Source: NBC News / WSJ Poll (September 2019)
The Racial Divide White Voters Black Voters 1. Warren 28% 1. Biden 49% 2. Biden 27% 2. Warren 13% 3. Sanders 14% 3. Harris 10% 4. Buttigieg 8% 4. Sanders 5% 5. Harris 5% 5. Buttigieg 3% 7 | Source: NBC News / WSJ Poll (September 2019)
Policy Priorities
Top Three issues for All Voters Top Three issues for Democratic Voters
24% 18% 14% 36% 20% 12%
Health Immigration Job creation Health Climate Job creation
care and border and economic care change and economic
security growth growth
8 | Source: NBC News / WSJ Poll (May 2019)
A Majority of Democratic Voters Prefer a
Candidate Who Proposes Large-Scale Policies
Q. [Among registered Democratic voters] Do you prefer a nominee who proposes larger
scale policies that might cost more and be harder to pass but could still result in major
54% 41%
change or a nominee who pushes for smaller-scale policies that cost less and might A nominee who proposes A nominee who proposes
be easier to pass but that bring less change? large-scale policies small-scale policies
Democratic voters who prefer a candidate Democratic voters who prefer a candidate
who champions large-scale policies who champions small-scale policies
Warren 32% Biden 43%
Biden 21% Warren 17%
Sanders 19% Harris 9%
9 | Source: NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll (September 2019)
The View from General Election Voters on
Hot Button Democratic Primary Issues
Medicare for All Wealth tax ($1m income +)
Good idea: 40% Bad idea: 55% Good idea: 61% Bad idea: 34%
Decriminalizing illegal border crossings $15 minimum wage
Good idea: 27% Bad idea: 67% Good idea: 55% Bad idea: 34%
National health insurance for illegal immigrants Green New Deal
Good idea: 32% Bad idea: 62% Good idea: 60% Bad idea: 34%
Reparations for slavery Free college tuition for public colleges
Good idea: 26% Bad idea: 63% Good idea: 51% Bad idea: 45%
10 | Source: NPR/PBS/Marist Poll (July 2019)New Dynamics
Early Voting First Ballot at
Some notable primary states, such Convention
as California, have expanded early Super delegates are not allowed to
voting to one month prior to the vote if a candidate does not have
primary election. California will begin a majority of pledged delegates,
early voting the same day as the meaning super delegates will not
Iowa caucus. be able to decide the winner on the
first ballot.
Delegate Math Super Tuesday is more
3,768 pledged delegates are super than usual
proportionally awarded based on 15 primaries and caucuses will be held
candidate performance in each state. on Super Tuesday, including primaries
A candidate must accumulate a majority in California (416 pledged delegates)
(1,885+) in order to win on the first and Texas (223 pledged delegates).
ballot. If no candidate has a majority of In total, 1,361 pledged delegates will
delegates on the first ballot, 715 super be awarded on March 3, representing
delegates (“free agents”) will be eligible 36% of all pledged delegates.
to vote on the second ballot.
112020 Early State Primary Calendar
February March
Iowa Caucus Super Tuesday
3 (41 pledged delegates)
3 (1,361 pledged delegates)
New Hampshire Primary
11 (24 pledged delegates)
Nevada Caucus
22 (36 pledged delegates)
South Carolina Primary
29 (54 pledged delegates)
12The Democratic Electorate:
First Four Presidential Primary Contests
% White % Women % Bachelor’s + % 50+ % Liberal 2016 Democratic
Primary
Clinton
National 59% 56% 39% 47% 46% +12.1%
Clinton
Iowa 91% 57% 50% 58% 68% +0.25%
New Sanders
Hampshire 93% 55% 60% 51% 68% +22.5%
Clinton
Nevada 59% 56% 46% 58% 70% +47.4%
South Clinton
Carolina 35% 61% 40% 55% 54% +5.3%
13 | Source: Pew Research; Gallup; 2016 CNN Exit Polls; Des Moines RegisterIowa Caucus
History of the Caucus How the Caucus worked in 2016 New 2020 Caucus Dynamics
• The Iowa caucus dates back to the 1840s • 171,000 Iowa Democratic voters participated in • Three Reporting Metrics
1,683 precinct caucuses at over 1,000 locations
• Since 1972, Iowa has held the distinction of hosting in 2016 , reflecting a decline of 69,000 from the
the first-in-the-nation Democratic caucus. The record turnout in 2008 (240,000)
Republican Party followed suit in 1976. Past Winners
• 15% viability threshold after round one.
• The Iowa caucus gained national notoriety in 1976 Supporters of candidates below 15% at the • 2016: Clinton
when “Jimmy Who” leveraged a second place finish caucus location re-aligned to viable candidates for
(behind “uncommitted”) to win the Democratic the second and final round. The results were then • 2008: Obama
nomination and the general election. tallied.
• 2004: Kerry
• Since 1972, the top vote-getter in the Democratic • Only a single metric was reported on caucus night
caucus has gone on to win the nomination in eight which was the share of state delegates that each • 2000: Gore
of ten contested races candidate was able to win through the caucus
• 1992: Harkin
process and NOT the raw votes
• 1988: Gephardt
• 27 delegates were proportionally awarded based
on performance in each of the four congressional
districts. 14 delegates were awarded based on
delegate support at state convention
14 | Source: Des Moines Register; Iowa Public Television; NPR; AP; Huffington PostIowa Democratic Caucus State of Play
First Choice Second Choice Net Favorability
Warren Biden Warren Sanders Warren Buttigieg
22% 20% 20% 10% +58 +56
Sanders Buttigieg Harris Buttigieg Harris Biden
11% 9% 10% 9% +39 +37
Harris Biden Sanders
6% 8% +22
*No other candidates above 3%
Only 20% of Iowa Democratic caucusgoers say they have locked in their support for a particular candidate
15 | Source: CNN / Des Moines Register Poll (September 2019)The Iowa Bounce:
2008 Obama South Carolina Polling Trend
Obama’s South South Carolina Polling Margin (2007-2008)
16 | Source: Real Clear PoliticsNew Hampshire Primary
New Hampshire
24 Pledged Delegates NH Primary: Feb 11 Past Winners
• The New Hampshire first-in-the-nation primary dates back to 1920 • 2016: Sanders
• 251,000 New Hampshire voters participated in the 2016 Democratic primary, a
• 2008: Clinton
36,000 vote drop from the 2008 record turnout of 287,000
• Modified open primary, meaning registered Democrats and Independents may • 2004: Kerry
vote in the primary. Same day voter registration
• 2000: Gore
• Independents represented 40% of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters
in 2016. If the Republican primary is not competitive, Independents will be very • 1992: Tsongas
influential in the Democratic primary
• 1988: Dukakis
• 16 delegates proportionally awarded based on candidate performance in the two
congressional districts
• 8 delegates proportionally awarded based on candidate performance statewide
• Since 1972, the winner of the Democratic primary has gone on to become
the nominee in five out of ten contested races. Of note, four out of the five
New Hampshire winners who became the nominee also won Iowa – the lone
17 exception was Dukakis in 1988New Hampshire Democratic Primary State of Play
First Choice Net Favorability
Warren Biden Warren Buttigieg
27% 25% +55 +50
Biden Sanders
Sanders Buttigieg
12% 10% +42 +35
Harris Harris
3% +40
No other candidates above 2%
When it comes to health care, a majority (56%) of New Hampshire Democratic primary voters favor a system
that would allow people to either opt into Medicare or keep their private coverage
18 | Source: Monmouth Poll (September 2019)Nevada and South Carolina
Nevada South Carolina
36 Delegates 54 Delegates
NV Caucus: Feb 22 Past Winners SC Primary: Feb 29 Past Winners
• The Nevada caucus became an early nominating • 2016: Clinton • South Carolina’s “First in the South” primary began • 2016: Clinton
contest in 2008 in 1992
• 2008: Clinton • 2008: Obama
• 84,000 Nevada Democrats participated in the 2016 • 369,000 South Carolinians voted in the 2016
caucus, a decline of 34,000 from 2008 (118,000) Democratic primary, a 161,000 vote drop-off from
the record turnout in 2008 (530,000)
• Caucus with 15% viability threshold. Supporters of
candidates below 15% at the caucus location will • Open primary, meaning any registered voter can
re-align to viable candidates participate
• Must be a registered Democrat to vote (must • 35 delegates proportionally awarded based on
register by caucus day) candidate performance in the seven congressional
districts
• 23 delegates proportionally awarded based on
performance in each of the four congressional • 19 delegates proportionally awarded based on
districts candidate performance statewide
• 13 delegates awarded based on delegate support • Since 1992, the winner of the Democratic primary
at state convention has gone to become the nominee in four out of five
contested primaries
19Nevada Democratic Caucus State of Play
Democratic Caucus Among White Voters Among Non-White Voters
(59% of electorate) (41% of electorate)
Joe Joe Bernie
22% Biden 21% Biden 29% Sanders
Bernie Elizabeth Joe
22% Sanders 20% Warren 28% Biden
Elizabeth Bernie Elizabeth
18% Warren 19% Sanders 8% Warren
Kamala Pete Kamala
5% Harris 6% Buttigieg 8% Harris
Pete Kamala Pete
4% Buttigieg 4% Harris 1% Buttigieg
The Nevada caucus became an early nominating contest in 2008. Only 84,000 Nevada Democrats participated in the
2016 caucus, a decline of 34,000 from 2008 (118,000)
20 |Source: CNN (September 2019)South Carolina Democratic Primary State of Play
Democratic Primary Among Black Voters Among White Voters
(61% of electorate) (35% of electorate)
Joe Joe Joe
37% Biden 45% Biden 29% Biden
Elizabeth Bernie Elizabeth
16% Warren 13% Sanders 28% Warren
Bernie Kamala Pete
11% Sanders 6% Harris 8% Buttigieg
Pete Elizabeth Bernie
4% Buttigieg 4% Warren 8% Sanders
3% Kamala
Harris
0% Pete
Buttigieg 1% Kamala
Harris
“Of all the contested Democratic primaries held in the state since it first adopted a primary in 1992, only one winner —
South Carolina-born John Edwards (2004) — did not go on to win the party’s nomination” (NBC News)
20 |Source: CNN (September 2019)March 3rd: Super Tuesday
California
416 Delegates
Alabama
52 Delegates
North Carolina Minnesota Maine
24 Delegates
110 Delegates 75 Delegates
Oklahoma Vermont
37 Delegates 16 Delegates
Texas Virginia Colorado
223 Delegates 99 Delegates 67 Delegates Arkansas
31 Delegates American Samoa
6 Delegates
Massachusetts Utah
Tennessee 29 Delegates
92 Delegates 64 Delegates
21Trump’s Positioning
for Re-Election
22Direction
of Country Right Direction Wrong Direction
62%
60% 60% 59%
57% 57% 57% 57%
55% 55% 55%
54% 53%
50%
40% 40% 40%
37% 37% 37% 38%
36% 36%
32% 33%
31%
30% 30%
Jan. 2017 Apr. 2017 Jul. 2017 Oct. 2017 Jan. 2018 Apr. 2018 Jul. 2018 Oct. 2018 Jan. 2019 Apr. 2019 Jul. 2019 Aug. 2019
Obama | Direction of Country
70%
60% 62%
55%
40% 40%
30% 31%
10%
Jan. 2009 Jan. 2010 Jun. 2011 Nov. 2012 Nov. 2013 Nov. 2014 Nov. 2015 Nov. 2016
23 | Source: Real Clear PoliticsPresidential Historical Comparison H.W. BUSH W. BUSH CLINTON REAGAN TRUMP OBAMA
66% 50% 48% 47% 43%
Approval Rating @978 Days 41%
As of September 9, President Trump’s job approval rating stood at 43% Approve Disapprove
60%
55% 56%
54% 54% 54%
53% 53% 53%
52% 52%
50% 50%
44% 43% 43% 43% 44% 44% 43%
42% 41%
40% 40%
39%
38%
Jan. 2017 Apr. 2017 Jul. 2017 Oct. 2017 Jan. 2018 Apr. 2018 Jul. 2018 Oct. 2018 Jan. 2019 Apr. 2019 Jul. 2019 Aug. 2019
Own Party Approval for the Start of Year 3 in Office
W. BUSH TRUMP NIXON JFK EISENHOWER OBAMA H.W. BUSH REAGAN CLINTON CARTER
90 88 88 86 86 83 82 68 66 55
24 | Source: Real Clear Politics, Gallup, QuinnipiacThe Resistance
Trump’s Historically Strong Opposition
Donald Barack George W. Bill George H.W. Ronald Jimmy
Trump Obama Bush Clinton Bush Reagan Carter
May 2019 May 2011 May 2003 March 1995 February 1991 April 1983 June 1979
54% 38% 31% 37% 21% 36% 30%
Def vote against in Def vote against in Def vote against in Def vote against in Def vote against in Def vote against in Def vote against in
next election next election next election next election next election next election next election
25 | Source: CNN, Quinnipiac, Garth Analysis, George Washington University, Ipsos, Marist, Los Angeles Times, CBS NewsGeneral Election
Demographic Trends
26Racial and Age Composition
2012 – 2018
Racial Composition of US Electorate 2012-2018
80% 75% Asian D+54
72% 71% 72%
3% White Voter Increase
Pres. to Midterm year
1% White Voter Increase
Pres. to Midterm year
Hispanic D+40
60%
Black D+81
40% White R+10
20% 13% 12% 12% 11%
10% 8% 11%
11%
3% 3% 4% 3%
0%
2012 2014 2016 2018
Presidential Midterm Presidential Midterm
Age Composition of US Electorate 2008-2016
65+ R+2
60%
45-65 R+1
43%
40% 39%
38%
40% 30-44 D+19
9% Cumulative Decline 30-44 & 18-29
27% 11% Cumulative Decline 30-44 & 18-29 Pres. to Midterm year 26%
Pres. to Midterm year 22% 25%
19% 19% 22% 18-29 D+35
20% 22%
16% 16%
13% 13%
0%
2012 2014 2016 2018
Presidential Midterm Presidential Midterm
27 | Source: CNN Exit PollsVoting Preference by Race
2012 – 2018
White Black Hispanic
R+10 D +81 D+40
2018 2018 2018
R+20 D +81 D+38
2016 2016 2016
R+22 D +79 D+26
2014 2014 2014
R+20 D+87 D+44
2012 2012 2012
28 | Source: CNN Exit PollsVoting Preference by Age
2012 – 2018
65+ 45-64 30-44 18-29
R+2 R+1 D+19 D+35
2018 2018 2018 2018
R+7 R+8 D+10 D+19
2016 2016 2016 2016
R+16 R+8 D+2 D+11
2014 2014 2014 2014
R+12 R+4 D+7 D+23
2012 2012 2012 2012
25 | Source: CNN Exit PollsGeographic Split
2012 – 2018
Urban Suburban Rural
D+33 D+0 R+14
2018 2018 2018
D+26 R+2 R+27
2016 2016 2016
D+14 R+12 R+21
2014 2014 2014
D+26 R+2 R+20
2012 2012 2012
26White Voter Education Divide
2012 – 2018
Party Preference Share of Electorate
White College Grads vs. Non-College Grads 2008-2016 White College Grads vs. Non-College Grads 2008-2016
50 College 50 College
40 37 45
30 26
30 40 39 41
24
37
1306 36
20 35 34
16
14
10 30 31
3
0 25
2012 2014 2016 2018
-10 -8
2012 2014 2016 2018
College-Educated White Women
D+7 D+2 D+20
2014 2016 2018
31 | Source: CNN Exit PollsTrial Heats Among College and
Non-College Educated White Voters
Trump’s General Election Margins Among Trump’s General Election Margins Among Non-
College-Educated White Voters College Educated White Voters
Trump +3% vs. Hillary Clinton in 2016 Trump +37% vs. Hillary Clinton in 2016
Trump -5% vs. Joe Biden Trump +8% vs. Bernie Sanders
Trump +3% vs. Bernie Sanders Trump +10% vs. Joe Biden
Trump +3% vs. Pete Buttigieg Trump +15% vs. Elizabeth Warren
Trump +4% vs. Elizabeth Warren Trump +17% vs. Kamala Harris
Trump +5% vs. Kamala Harris Trump +17% vs. Pete Buttigieg
32 | Source: Fox News Poll (June 2019)Electoral College Map &
Congressional Election Outlook
332020
Electoral College
ELECTORAL VOTE
101 Electoral Votes
Democratic
Up for Grabs
186 Solid / 47 Lean = 233 Total
270
4
Republican 10 16
164 Solid / 40 Lean = 204 Total 6 20
6 18
270 9
13
Democratic (186) Republican (164) Up for Grabs (101) 15
California, Connecticut, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida (29), Pennsylvania 11 5
Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, (20), Michigan (16), North
Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Kentucky, Louisiana, Carolina (15), Arizona (11), 16
Massachusetts, New York, New Mississippi, Missouri, and Wisconsin (10)
Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Montana, Nebraska, North
Vermont and Washington Dakota, Oklahoma, South
Carolina, South Dakota, 29
Lean Democratic (47)
Tennessee, Texas, Utah,
Virginia (13), Minnesota (10),
West Virginia and Wyoming
Colorado (9), Nevada (6), New
Mexico (5), New Hampshire (4) Lean Republican (40)
Ohio (18), Georgia (16) and
Iowa (6)
34Core Battleground States
Pennyslvania Michigan Arizona Florida North Carolina Wisconsin
% Non-College % Non-College % Non-College % Non-College % Non-College % Non-College
White White White White White White
40% 42% 36% 27% 33% 47%
2016 Trump 2016 Trump 2016 Trump 2016 Trump 2016 Trump 2016 Trump
48.0% 47.5% 49.0% 49.0% 50.5% 47.0%
2016 Republican 2016 Republican 2016 Republican 2016 Republican 2016 Republican 2016 Republican
Generic % Generic % Generic % Generic % Generic % Generic %
54.0% 49.0% 52.0% 54.0% 53.0% 47.0%
2018 Republican 2018 Republican 2018 Republican 2018 Republican 2018 Republican 2018 Republican
Generic % Generic % Generic % Generic % Generic % Generic %
45.0% 45.0% 49.0% 52.0% 51.0% 46.0%
Generic Decline Generic Decline Generic Decline Generic Decline Generic Decline Generic Decline
-9.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -2.0% -1.0%
35Trump’s Path
to Re-Election
REPUBLICAN LEAN REPUBLICAN
164 40
0 270
TRUMPS BASE TRUMPS NEEDS
204 ELECTORAL VOTES 66 ELECTORAL VOTES
Step 1 Step 2
3 must-win 3 paths
states #1 #2 #3
WIN WIN TIE
Florida North Carolina Arizona
29 + 15 + 11 Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin
20 16 10
= 259
362020 Outlook: US House
Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back control of the House, an unlikely feat in a presidential race.
Democratic In fact, the last time the House changed hands in a presidential election cycle was 1952. Republican
235 218 1 independent 199
31 Democrats 3 Republicans
Represent districts won by Trump in 2016 Represent districts won by Clinton in 2016
House Democrats represent House Democrats 90 percent of House Republicans are
54% 20% 54 percent of the American represent 79 percent of
all Asian residents of
White men, compared to just 38 percent 90% 38%
population but just 20 percent of House Democrats. This is the widest
of America’s land area the U.S., 72 percent of demographic gap in history.
Latinos and 66 percent
of African-Americans,
House Democrats represent 78 percent of all Whole Foods Market A record 102 women serve
but just 45 percent of
locations but just 27 percent of all Cracker Barrel Old Country Store in the House (89 Democrats /
non-Hispanic whites.
locations. Of the 43 districts Democrats flipped from Republican 13 Republicans), including 36
control, 69 percent contain a Whole Foods Market. freshmen Members.
37 | Source: Cook Political Report2020 Outlook: US Senate
Democrats need a net gain of 3-4 seats (depending on presidential outcome) to win control.
Democratic Republican
47 50
53
Races to Watch 34 Senate seats (22R / 12D) are up in 2020 with Republicans largely on defense:
Alabama Arizona Colorado Maine North Carolina Georgia
(D-Jones) (R-McSally) (R-Gardner) (R-Collins) (R-Tillis) (R-Isakson Open)
There are a dozen incumbents whose seats are up In 2020, there will be 22 There are 25 women serving in the Senate, reflecting the highest
in 2020 who will be 70 or older by Election Day— number ever. Six states have two female senators: Arizona,
Republican US Senate seats
five Democrats and seven Republicans. Two of the California, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Washington
Republicans, Sens. Alexander (R-TN) and Roberts (R-KS), up for election. 18 of them
have already announced their retirements. are from states Trump won.
(source: Washington Post)
38 | Source: Cook Political ReportYou can also read
