2021 NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK
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2021 NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 Industrial demand is booming, but so is supply
2 Pent-up demand story forming—
expect economic surge in back half of 2021
3 Fundamentals to continue generating solid rent growth
throughout the next few years
4 Global trade expected to rise as economic growth
accelerates and trade tensions ease, boosting demand
For a deep dive into local market
fundamentals click here.
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2019
2021 NORTH AMERICAN
INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK
MARKET OVERVIEW increase of only 130 basis points (bps) over
year-end 2020. Despite the forecasted
The Industrial Market
uptick, North American vacancy will remain
is Still Hungry for Space
nearly on par with its 10-year average (2012-
The forecast for North American industrial
2021) of 6%. Average net asking rents for
absorption from 2021 to 2022 is a healthy
classes of industrial product will rise to a new
481.3 million square feet (msf). New supply—
nominal high of $6.97 per square foot (psf)
which has surpassed demand two years in at year-end 2022. Supply-side constraints,
a row—will maintain this trend over the next such as onerous municipal approval
two years. New deliveries are projected to processes, will continue to constrain supply
reach 697.3 msf of product from 2021 to growth in Canada where overall net rents will
2022. Nonetheless, North American vacancy remain the highest in North America at USD
will remain low, ending 2022 at 6.2%—an $10.19 psf by the close of 2022.
NORTH AMERICAN SUPPLY AND DEMAND
400 12.0%
300 10.0%
200 8.0%
MSF
100 6.0%
- 4.0%
(100) 2.0%
(200) 0.0%
New Supply (MSF) Net Absorption (MSF) Overall Vacancy (%)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
4 / CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
TOP 5 MARKETS FOR DEMAND TOP 5 MARKETS FOR SUPPLY
NET ABSORPTION (MSF) DELIVERIES (MSF)
2021-2022 2021-2022
RANK MARKET MSF RANK MARKET MSF
1 Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX 47.0 1 Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX 41.4
2 Chicago, IL 31.4 2 Chicago, IL 34.3
3 Atlanta, GA 30.2 3 Inland Empire, CA 33.5
4 Inland Empire, CA 20.1 4 Atlanta, GA 29.9
5 Houston, TX 21.8 5 Memphis, TN 26.0
The economic recovery, progress in global to 2022. Over the next two years, Toronto
trade and the accelerated buildout of and Vancouver are expected to account for
e-commerce and 3PL last-mile facilities, over 71.8% of Canadian occupancy growth,
fulfillment centers, and bulk warehouses but Ottawa will grow most rapidly (demand
will reinforce demand for industrial real relative to inventory) over the same period.
estate. For the eighth consecutive year, net Despite the extremely tight vacancy rates in
absorption in the U.S. will exceed 200 msf Mexico, positive net absorption will continue
in 2021; we anticipate this streak will extend with Mexico City approaching 9 msf of
absorption by 2022.
through 2022. In Canada, industrial markets
will maintain their longest uninterrupted New leasing activity in Mexico City continues
period of positive net absorption through to be strong. But with one of the lowest
2022 with a near record high in 2021. vacancy rates among North American
Canadian industrial markets are forecast to markets in 2020, stronger occupancy gains
register 38.1 msf of net absorption from 2021 will be limited to new construction deliveries
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2021 / 5
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2021
coming to market. This is also true for the
other main industrial markets in Mexico,
such as Monterrey, Tijuana and Ciudad
Juarez, where availability rates decreased
significantly throughout 2020. Demand
for industrial space in Mexico will benefit
from the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement
(USMCA) that went into effect mid-year
2020. As an example, the auto industry will
create additional real estate demand as
well as jobs for the sector. The USMCA now
requires that 75% of a vehicle’s components
be manufactured within North America, up
from around 60% under the North American
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It also now
mandates that 70% of a vehicle’s aluminum
or steel come from the three countries. These
changes will help bolster manufacturing and
logistics demand throughout North America.
Demand in the North American industrial
market is geographically dispersed,
especially throughout the United States.
The top 10 markets for demand include
at least one market from the four Census
regions tracked in the U.S. industrial market
(Northeast, Midwest, South and West).
Coming in at the number one spot with
47 msf of positive absorption through
2022 is the Dallas/Ft. Worth market which
experienced explosive growth over the past
decade of expansion, significantly outpacing Demand in the
the next three top markets Chicago, Atlanta
and the Inland Empire, whose forecasts North American
are over 30 msf. Though this is nothing to industrial market
be wary of, these four markets alone are
anticipated to make up 29% of demand is geographically
for North America from 2021 to 2022. dispersed, especially
Regionally, the majority of demand will
come from the South region in the U.S., throughout the
accounting for 38% of demand, followed by United States.
the West and the Midwest regions. With port
proximity, rail access and established border
markets, the South will continue to lead the
North American industrial markets.
6 / CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
NORTH AMERICA AS A PERCENT OF INVENTORY
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
Absorption as a % of Inventory Delivieries as a % of Inventory
Source: The CoStar Group (for select markets only), Cushman & Wakefield Research
More Supply Means More Options are build-to-suit. As a result, we anticipate a
North American industrial markets are slow rebalancing in market conditions with
projected to deliver 697.3 msf of new a gradual uptick in vacancy. Regionally, the
product by year-end 2022. Over 92% of South in the U.S. again comes in first for the
the space delivered will be in the U.S. largest number of deliveries, forecasted to
where the market has been strapped for deliver nearly 225 msf of new construction
quality product over the past few years. by year-end 2022. However, Mexico City
Despite supply being forecasted to outpace is expected to deliver the most space as a
demand for the next two years, the pipeline percent of total inventory at 5%.
will remain elevated in primary industrial
markets, port-proximate markets (both North American demand overall is expected
intermodal and maritime), and in markets to trail supply by about 125 msf in 2021
with dense or fast-growing populations. and 90 msf in 2022, causing vacancy rates
Up until Q1 2019, supply had not outpaced to rise modestly from current record low
demand; but this trend has started to change levels. Mexico City, however, will see a 90-
with investors questioning whether the bps decrease in vacancy from 2020 to
U.S. would enter a period of overbuilding year-end 2022, bringing the rate to 2.1%.
while Canadian markets and Mexico City Canadian markets will likely see only a
remain stable. The short answer is it did not 30-bps increase in vacancy due to a larger
happen in 2020, and likely will not in 2021. pipeline of 44 msf expected to deliver over
The amount of space that has been under the next two years. Vacancy in the U.S. will
construction in North America exceeded surpass 6% for the first time since 2015 by
365 msf during 2020—the largest amount of year-end 2021, coming in at 6.1%, and is likely
space ever under construction, and most of to increase by an additional 50 bps during
that space was in the U.S. which averaged 2022 to 6.6%. Most markets across the three
a pipeline of 335.9 msf on a quarterly basis. countries remain starved for quality space,
The pipeline may sound concerning with and as more supply enters the market, rental
the level of demand not keeping up, but rates are expected to continue increasing,
the circumstances around the deliveries are albeit at a slightly slower pace. With options
fundamentally better than in the past. Pre- becoming more plentiful, tenants can afford
leasing rates indicate this will continue, plus, to be picky when it comes to site selection,
the composition of supply matters. A much forcing landlords to slow increases in rental
higher percentage of projects in the pipeline rates to remain competitive.
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2021 / 7
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2021
Rents Will Reach New Highs as Dallas/Ft. Worth, Inland Empire, Atlanta,
North American industrial asking rents Chicago, PA I-81/I-78 Distribution Corridor,
are expected to reach a new nominal high Indianapolis and Central New Jersey. The
of USD $6.97 psf by year-end 2022, and demand for newer product will command
the growth will be broad based across a premium and gives landlords the option
many markets in all regions. Across North to raise prices for the most competitive
American industrial markets, 29 markets tenants. But also expect to see higher
are forecast to register more than 10% rent rents among supply-constrained markets,
growth from the beginning of 2021 to year- especially those close to ports (both inland
end 2022, with two of the top three being and maritime) such as Los Angeles, Seattle,
Canadian: Toronto at 25% and Vancouver San Francisco Peninsula and Orange County.
at 23.9%. All but nine (of the 85) markets The markets being fed by the West and
tracked for this report will see positive East Coast ports or the intermodal hubs in
rent growth through 2022. Other North the middle of the country are where U.S.
American cities that will post some of the rent growth will be strongest due to limited
strongest rent growth will be those with the supply and desirable location.
highest demand and quality supply such
NORTH AMERICAN RENT GROWTH
$8.00 8.0%
$7.00 6.0%
$6.00 4.0%
$5.00 2.0%
$4.00 0.0%
$3.00 -2.0%
$2.00 -4.0%
$1.00 -6.0%
$0.00 -8.0%
Asking Rents (Q4) (USD/SF) Rent Growth (USD, %)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
8 / CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
COVID-19 & THE of the global and regional economy. Indeed,
the next few years may be defined by a
ECONOMY period of strong, synchronized global growth
2020 was rough, but is setting the similar to 2017. Once the pandemic largely
stage for a global rebound subsides, that is.
COVID-19 disrupted everything in 2020. And
with its onset more than one year behind Supporting the near-term recovery are
the globe, and the arrival and approval of three key features: less restrictive lockdown
multiple viable vaccines, the stage for a measures (which immediately led to a jump
rebound in the global economy is being set. in economic growth across the globe but
As North America scales up access to several have since contributed less momentum),
vaccines, and warmer weather more easily demand from regions that have had more
allows for businesses to operate (particularly
relative success in containing COVID-19,
outdoors), even under social distancing
and policy support. For example, bilateral
protocols, economic momentum is likely to
merchandise trade flow data from the
build throughout the spring. Not only that,
International Monetary Fund show that
but a few other forces are liable to stimulate
exports from Canada are down 14% year-to-
demand in the economy: 1) inventory draw-
downs in 2020 will need to be replenished, date (January through August). For Mexico,
2) pent-up demand for tourism and other they are down 17% and for the U.S., 16%.
services will start to be unleashed, 3) global But, when looking at exports to mainland
demand will support the budding trade China, where containment of the virus has
recovery and 4) the ability to congregate allowed for a much faster return to normalcy,
again will mean that these trends benefit a Canada’s exports are only down 1%, Mexico’s
wider segment—possibly even the totality— are up 8% and the U.S.’s are only down 7%.
REAL GDP FORECASTS
Annual growth rate
2020Q4-2022Q4 CAGR
8.0%
3.3% 3.4% 4.2% 4.0% 4.4%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
Canada Mexico United States North America Global
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Oxford Economics, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Note: Country real GDP figures based on data in local currency units. North American real GDP figures in PPP units.
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2021 / 9
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2021
Policy actions holding up economy, June, an expansion of 71%. It has remained
for now roughly stable since then. The Bank of
North America’s near-term recovery is being Canada’s balance sheet expanded from
supported by policy measures that have C$121.5 billion to over C$500 billion over
been disproportionately large in the U.S. and the same time period, and was at C$544.8
Canada relative to Mexico. The U.S. passed billion, an increase of nearly 350%, as of mid-
five major pieces of legislation in response December. Because each country’s economy
to COVID-19, totaling over $4 trillion of is operating so far below its potential, and
direct and indirect stimulus, or 19.4% of with aggregate demand subdued by hard-hit
pre-COVID-19 GDP. Canada has provided sectors, few central banks are worried about
$320 billion of such support for its economy, reversing course to fight inflation. Indeed,
representing 18.4% of its pre-COVID-19 GDP
the outlook for interest rates has softened
level. Despite Mexico’s somewhat lackluster
considerably from pre-COVID-19, supporting
fiscal response totaling $9.4 billion, or 0.7%
inflows of capital to yield-producing assets,
of its pre-COVID-19 GDP, it has indisputably
such as commercial real estate.
benefitted from its northern neighbors’
actions through regional linkages. Further, all Mexico’s central bank, Banco de México, had
three countries’ central banks substantially a substantially different starting point; it had
altered policy in response to the pandemic. raised interest rates to 8.25% by mid-2019
to combat falling currency values and high
Unconcerned with inflation, almost all major
central banks went on offense in early inflation. Having started to lower rates in
2020. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal August 2019, it quickly accelerated its easing
Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered and lowered the target interbank rate from
its target rate to a range of 0% to 0.25% 7.0% to 4.25% over the course of 2020 in a
while the Bank of Canada lowered its rate to more gradual set of rate cuts than Canada
0.25%. A rapid increase in quantitative easing and the U.S undertook. This is in part due to
was accompanied by the deployment of its strict inflation mandate, as Mexico’s core
multiple credit facilities to stabilize financial inflation has remained above 3% throughout
market conditions. The Federal Reserve’s 2020. Still, the current rate is below the
balance sheet grew from $4.2 trillion at estimate-neutral rate, meaning that monetary
the end of February to $7.2 trillion by mid- policy conditions are expansionary.
FISCAL SUPPORT AS A PERCENT OF 2019 GDP
Policy Buoys 2020 Economy
U.S.
Canada
Mexico
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Direct Fiscal Support Liquidity Support
Source: Moody’s Analytics
10 / CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELDNorth American demand
Stronger, unique recovery overall is expected to trail
to accelerate in 2021
With accommodative policy bridging the
supply by about 125 msf in
economic chasm and inoculation currently 2021 and 90 msf in 2022,
ramping up, it is likely that 2021 will be a
turning point, particularly in the stability of
causing vacancy rates to
the outlook. It is assumed that current and rise modestly from current
forthcoming vaccines will be successful in not
only preventing COVID-19 outbreaks, with record low levels.
obvious economic repercussions, but that this
also allows for more sustainable private sector
growth, having gradually decoupled from
the persistently high levels of uncertainty of
2020. And while growth will no longer be
as closely linked to the virus itself and its
concomitant policy responses, COVID-19 will
nonetheless influence the foundation of the
next expansion.
One such theme is that of an uneven
recovery. Already this is being seen across
industries and across wage tiers—with those
hurt most by social distancing seeing the
least robust improvements. This has been
particularly true of the tourist-centric and
service-oriented industries as well as those in
low-wage jobs across all sectors. In Mexico,
the tertiary sector, which employs about
three-fifths of workers, has also been hard hit.
An uneven recovery is even taking hold
within the industrial segment of the
economy, with manufacturing, wholesale
and various forms of transportation
employment all still well below pre-COVID-19
peak levels. These sectors are sensitive to
flows of inputs and final goods that trend
with global demand, manufacturing, and
trade activity. Although global growth is
expected to rebound in 2021, growing by
5.1% according to a consensus of forecasts,1
it is not expected to recover until the second
half of 2021 (and that is only to pre-COVID-19
levels, not to the level that would have
been achieved in the absence of a global
recession). The World Trade Organization
estimates that world trade will grow by 7.2%
1
The average of the International Monetary Fund, the Organi-
zation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Oxford
Economics and Moody’s Analytics.
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2021 / 11NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2021
UNEVEN RECOVERY
MEXICO U.S.
EMPLOYMENT INDEX: YR/YR % CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
JAN 2020 LEVEL = 100 BY WAGE TIER
105
May-20
Aug-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Oct-20
Jan-20
Dec-19
Jul-20
100
95
5%
90
0%
85
-5%
80 -10%
75 -15%
8/1/2020
6/1/2020
9/1/2020
4/1/2020
7/1/2020
2/1/2020
3/1/2020
1/1/2020
5/1/2020
-20%
-25%
-30%
Primary and Secondary Sectors Tertiary Sector High-Wage Mid-Wage Low-Wage
CANADA
PRE-COVID-19 PEAK TO TODAY % CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
Professional; scientific and technical services
Educational services
Finance; insurance; real estate and leasing
Forestry; fishing; mining; quarrying; oil and gas
Utilities
Public administration
Manufacturing
Health care and social assistance
Trade
Goods-producing sector
Total
Services-producing sector
Other services
Construction
Transportation and warehousing
Agriculture
Business; building and other support services
Information; culture and recreation
Accommodation and food services
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
Source: Statistics Canada, Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografia e Informática (INEGI), Encuesta
Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo (ENOE), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics
12 / CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELDin 2021, only partially offsetting the loss of demand. Importantly, the structural shifts
of activity in 2020.2 The global recovery is in consumer behavior will also mean that
expected to be led by the East, with China industrial property markets are likely to see
and India seeing faster improvements in healthy demand despite underlying pockets
industrial production and trade than the
of weakness in the broader labor market.
West. This suggests industrial demand
drivers will remain below their potential
in 2021 due to a lack of a comprehensive
CONCLUSION
recovery across all sectors. More diverse The necessity to further accelerate the
demand should return in 2022. adoption of e-commerce within the economy
insulated the industrial real estate sector from
The strength in industrial real estate
the downturns that befell the hospitality,
throughout the pandemic has been a
office and retail sectors. This ramping up of
function of pulling forward e-commerce-
the industrial sector to support e-commerce
related demand due to simple necessity.
The pandemic-induced surge in online growth will benefit industrial real estate in
shopping created a bifurcation in industrial the near- and medium-term but may also
employment, with warehousing and final- lead to slower growth in 2022 as the sector
mile employment reaching record levels in compensates for overshooting due to the
the U.S. In Canada, warehouse and final-mile partly unforeseen spike in demand. Given that
employment has outperformed significantly, the global economy is expected to be firing
only 5% below pre-COVID-19 levels (versus on all cylinders by that time, demand from
nearly 20% for overall employment). As the other segments of the economy is likely to
growth of e-commerce demand slows from
accelerate and offset any e-commerce-specific
its feverish pace during the height of the
loss of momentum. Thus, the stage is set for a
pandemic, it will remain a significant source
healthy and evolving demand backdrop.
2
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr862_e.htm
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2021 / 13INDEX TOP 50 MARKETS FOR SUPPLY DELIVERIES (MSF) 2021-2022 RANK MARKET MSF RANK MARKET MSF 1 Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX 41.4 26 Nashville, TN 7.0 2 Chicago, IL 34.3 27 Denver, CO 6.3 3 Inland Empire, CA 33.5 28 Northern NJ 5.8 4 Atlanta, GA 29.9 29 San Diego, CA 5.7 5 Memphis, TN 26.1 30 Las Vegas, NV 5.7 6 Houston, TX 25.0 31 Seattle, WA 5.4 7 Indianapolis, IN 21.0 32 San Antonio, TX 5.3 8 Toronto, ON 20.7 33 Minneapolis, MN 5.2 9 PA I81/I78 Corridor, PA 20.6 34 Central Valley, CA 4.9 10 Phoenix, AZ 18.3 35 Ottawa, ON 4.6 11 Austin, TX 14.2 36 Jacksonville, FL 4.3 12 Kansas City, MO 14.0 37 Salt Lake City, UT 4.2 13 Vancouver, BC 13.5 38 Colorado Springs, CO 4.1 14 Central NJ 11.8 39 Fort Lauderdale, FL 3.8 15 Philadelphia, PA 11.7 40 Silicon Valley, CA 3.6 16 Charlotte, NC 10.9 41 DC Suburbs, VA 3.6 17 Columbus, OH 9.7 42 Lakeland, FL 3.6 18 Norfolk, VA 8.2 43 Reno, NV 3.5 19 Miami, FL 7.9 44 Calgary, AB 3.4 20 Savannah, GA 7.8 45 Louisville, KY 3.2 21 Baltimore, MD 7.7 46 San Francisco Peninsula, CA 3.2 22 St. Louis, MO 7.6 47 Sacramento, CA 2.8 23 Los Angeles, CA 7.3 48 Oakland, CA 2.8 24 Tampa, FL 7.2 49 Orlando, FL 2.5 25 Cincinnati, OH 7.2 50 NYC Boroughs, NY 2.5 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research, The CoStar Group *2021-2022 figures are derived from CoStar’s forecasts. 14 / CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
TOP 50 MARKETS FOR DEMAND
NET ABSORPTION (MSF)
2021-2022
RANK MARKET MSF RANK MARKET MSF
1 Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX 47.0 26 San Diego, CA 5.4
2 Chicago, IL 31.4 27 Norfolk, VA 5.3
3 Atlanta, GA 30.2 28 Central Valley, CA 4.9
4 Inland Empire, CA 30.1 29 San Antonio, TX 4.5
5 Houston, TX 21.8 30 Cincinnati, OH 4.4
6 Indianapolis, IN 19.1 31 Seattle, WA 4.4
7 PA I81/I78 Corridor, PA 19.0 32 Jacksonville, FL 4.1
8 Memphis, TN 15.1 33 Salt Lake City, UT 3.9
9 Central NJ 15.1 34 Montreal, QC 3.9
10 Kansas City, MO 14.6 35 Colorado Springs, CO 3.9
11 Toronto, ON 14.1 36 Minneapolis, MN 3.9
12 Phoenix, AZ 13.8 37 Reno, NV 3.8
13 Vancouver, BC 13.3 38 Louisville, KY 3.7
14 Austin, TX 9.4 39 Charleston, SC 3.7
15 Los Angeles, CA 7.2 40 Ottawa, ON 3.6
16 Charlotte, NC 7.1 41 Columbus, OH 3.3
17 St. Louis, MO 6.6 42 Fort Lauderdale, FL 3.3
18 Savannah, GA 6.4 43 Calgary, AB 3.2
19 Nashville, TN 6.3 44 Las Vegas, NV 3.1
20 Silicon Valley, CA 6.2 45 San Francisco Peninsula, CA 2.9
21 Denver, CO 6.1 46 Miami, FL 2.7
22 Philadelphia, PA 5.8 47 Oakland, CA 2.6
23 Northern NJ 5.8 48 Sacramento, CA 2.5
24 Tampa, FL 5.5 49 Orlando, FL 2.5
25 Baltimore, MD 5.5 50 Lakeland, FL 2.4
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research, The CoStar Group
*2021-2022 figures are derived from CoStar’s forecasts.
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2021 / 15INDEX TOP 50 MARKETS FOR RELATIVE DEMAND & SUPPLY DELIVERIES AS % OF INVENTORY 2021-2022 1 Ottawa, ON 19.2% 26 Las Vegas, NV 3.8% 2 Austin, TX 13.0% 27 San Antonio, TX 3.6% 3 Colorado Springs, CO 11.3% 28 Baltimore, MD 3.5% 4 Savannah, GA 9.4% 29 San Diego, CA 3.5% 5 Memphis, TN 9.0% 30 Reno, NV 3.4% 6 Philadelphia, PA 7.4% 31 Central NJ 3.3% 7 Indianapolis, IN 7.3% 32 Nashville, TN 3.2% 8 Norfolk, VA 6.8% 33 Columbus, OH 3.1% 9 Charlotte, NC 6.7% 34 St. Louis, MO 3.0% 10 Tampa, FL 6.4% 35 Chicago, IL 2.9% 11 PA I81/I78 Corridor, PA 6.3% 36 DC Suburbs, VA 2.8% 12 Vancouver, BC 6.2% 37 Calgary, AB 2.6% 13 Kansas City, MO 6.0% 38 Salt Lake City, UT 2.6% 14 Inland Empire, CA 5.8% 39 Toronto, ON 2.6% 15 San Francisco Peninsula, CA 5.6% 40 Central Valley, CA 2.6% 16 Houston, TX 5.5% 41 Denver, CO 2.6% 17 Phoenix, AZ 5.4% 42 Charleston, SC 2.4% 18 West Palm Beach, FL 5.2% 43 Seattle, WA 2.3% 19 Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX 5.1% 44 Cincinnati, OH 2.1% 20 Lakeland, FL 4.9% 45 Orlando, FL 2.1% 21 Miami, FL 4.9% 46 Northern NJ 2.0% 22 Atlanta, GA 4.6% 47 Fort Myers/Naples, FL 1.9% 23 Minneapolis, MN 4.4% 48 Sacramento, CA 1.9% 24 Fort Lauderdale, FL 4.2% 49 Fredericksburg, VA 1.8% 25 Jacksonville, FL 4.2% 50 Silicon Valley, CA 1.6% Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research, The CoStar Group *2021-2022 figures are derived from CoStar’s forecasts. 16 / CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
TOP 50 MARKETS FOR RELATIVE DEMAND & SUPPLY
NET ABSORPTION AS A % OF INVENTORY
2021-2022
1 Ottawa, ON 15.1% 26 San Diego, CA 3.3%
2 Colorado Springs, CO 10.7% 27 Minneapolis, MN 3.3%
3 Austin, TX 8.6% 28 Fredericksburg, VA 3.1%
4 Savannah, GA 7.7% 29 San Antonio, TX 3.0%
5 Indianapolis, IN 6.6% 30 Nashville, TN 2.8%
6 Kansas City, MO 6.2% 31 Silicon Valley, CA 2.7%
7 Vancouver, BC 6.1% 32 Chicago, IL 2.7%
8 PA I81/I78 Corridor, PA 5.9% 33 St. Louis, MO 2.6%
9 Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX 5.8% 34 Central Valley, CA 2.5%
10 Inland Empire, CA 5.3% 35 Baltimore, MD 2.5%
11 San Francisco Peninsula, CA 5.2% 36 Salt Lake City, UT 2.5%
12 Memphis, TN 5.2% 37 Denver, CO 2.5%
13 Tampa, FL 4.9% 38 Calgary, AB 2.4%
14 Houston, TX 4.8% 39 West Palm Beach, FL 2.2%
15 Atlanta, GA 4.7% 40 Orlando, FL 2.1%
16 Charlotte, NC 4.4% 41 SF North Bay, CA 2.1%
17 Norfolk, VA 4.4% 42 Las Vegas, NV 2.0%
18 Central NJ 4.1% 43 Northern NJ 2.0%
19 Charleston, SC 4.1% 44 Seattle, WA 1.9%
20 Phoenix, AZ 4.1% 45 DC Suburbs, VA 1.8%
21 Jacksonville, FL 4.0% 46 Toronto, ON 1.8%
22 Reno, NV 3.7% 47 Sacramento, CA 1.7%
23 Philadelphia, PA 3.7% 48 Miami, FL 1.7%
24 Fort Lauderdale, FL 3.7% 49 Louisville, KY 1.6%
25 Lakeland, FL 3.3% 50 Fort Myers/Naples, FL 1.6%
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research, The CoStar Group
*2021-2022 figures are derived from CoStar’s forecasts.
NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK 2021 / 17ABOUT CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that
delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield
is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 53,000 employees
in 400 offices and 60 countries. In 2019, the firm had revenue of $8.8 billion across
core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets,
valuation and other services. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow
@CushWake on Twitter.
CONTRIBUTORS
Carolyn Salzer Jason Tolliver
Americas Head of Logistics & Global Head of Logistics & Industrial
Industrial Research Research
carolyn.salzer@cushwake.com Managing Director, Investor Services
jason.tolliver@cushwake.com
Rebecca Rockey
Global Head of Economic Analysis & Kristina Bowman
Forecasting National Manager of Research,
rebecca.rockey@cushwake.com Canadian Markets
kristina.bowman@ca.cushwake.com
Rob Miller Jose Luis Rubi
Senior Research Manager, Global Market Research Manager,
Research Mexican Markets
rob.miller@cushwake.com joseluis.rubi@cushwake.com
FOR MORE INFORMATION
Tray Anderson
Logistics & Industrial Services
Lead, Americas
tray.anderson@cushwake.com
Bethany Clark
Senior Managing Director,
Strategy & Operations - Logistics
& Industrial Services, Americas
bethany.clark@cushwake.com
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