EMEA Market Snapshot Capital Markets | Q1 2021 - Assoimmobiliare

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EMEA Market Snapshot Capital Markets | Q1 2021 - Assoimmobiliare
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

   Capital Markets | Q1 2021

   EMEA
   Market Snapshot
EMEA Market Snapshot Capital Markets | Q1 2021 - Assoimmobiliare
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

Overview
Q1 2021 saw momentum continue in the Industrial & Logistics and Living                                                Sectors to watch
sectors however, there was a pause to large scale office transactions which                                           Logistics: Distribution, last-mile & data centres.
led to many countries seeing investment volumes half in comparison to                                                 Residential BTR/PRS/Affordable Housing/Senior Living.
Q1 2020. Investment into direct European Real Estate reached €51bn, a 35%                                             Core offices, life-science backed assets.
fall on Q1 2020. However, it is worth noting that Q1 2020 was the second
                                                                                                                      Grocery/convenience retail.
highest Q1 figure posted in the last 10 years, and the figure masks a range
in performance across countries.                                                                                                            Qrt Pricing Direction Qrt Pricing Forecast

                                                                                                                      Office                                                                           
Due to the third wave in Europe many tender               The living sector continues to have high demand
processes have been delayed however, there is             in the Nordics, as well as in Italy and CEE as an
                                                                                                                      Logistics                                                                         
activity in ‘off market’ and small tender processes.      emerging asset class. Positive sentiment is also
Despite the absence of large scale office                 returning to the UK Student Housing market. There
                                                                                                                      Residential                                                                      
transactions in Q1, sentiment remains positive            continues to be significant interest in the alternative
for low risk, core assets in prime locations and we       sectors including life sciences, senior living and assets
expect several large scale assets to be marketed in       backed by technology sub sectors.
                                                                                                                      Retail                                                                            
Q2 2021 and when the return of international travel
                                                          The hospitality sector is seeing more interest with         Hotel                                                                             
permits, volumes to pick up.
                                                          several markets reporting transactions for the first
The Industrial and Logistics sector continues to          time since the pandemic started. Several core and
thrive with falling yields in almost all markets and      forward hotel deals have entered the market and             Q1 2020 vs Q1 2021
premiums being paid for portfolios. Investors are         great anticipation towards new pricing awaits.              billions                                                            Q1 2020                      Q1 2021
willing to go up the risk curve in this sector although                                                               20
                                                                                                                      18
some investors are showing some initial concerns to
                                                                                                                      60
pricing and whether developers will push rents far
                                                                                                                      14
enough in a falling yield cap rate environment.                                                                       12
                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                       8
               Richard Divall | Head of Cross Border Capital Markets EMEA                                              6
                                                                                                                       4
               richard.divall@colliers.com
                                                                                                                       2
               +44 7831 254673
                                                                                                                       0

                                                                                                                                 Germany

                                                                                                                                           UK

                                                                                                                                                France

                                                                                                                                                         Netherlands

                                                                                                                                                                       Sweden

                                                                                                                                                                                Spain

                                                                                                                                                                                        Poland

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Italy

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Denmark

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Norway
                                                                                                                       Source: Colliers
EMEA Market Snapshot Capital Markets | Q1 2021 - Assoimmobiliare
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

UK                                                                                                                      Sectors
                                                                                                                        to watch
                                                                                                                                                                 Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                 Direction
                                                                                                                                                                                  Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                  Forecast
                                                                                                                        Grocery, industrial       Office                             
                                                                                                                        and anything
Transactional volumes remained subdued in Q1, as the national lockdown continued to                                     that’s linked to
impact on activity. Mild yield compression is evident at all the sector levels, driven by                                                         Logistics                            
                                                                                                                        demographics,
supermarkets and industrial, the latter growing to account for 46% of all transactions.                                 such as
                                                                                                                        residential,              Residential                          
Market Review                                                                                                           student housing,
                                                                                                                        senior housing.           Retail                               
• Around £7.5 billion worth of capital was invested             • Grocery investment reached almost €346 million,
  during Q1, according to preliminary data. This is                thanks to supermarket income REIT’s purchase
                                                                                                                                                  Hotel                                
  well below the five-year quarterly average of €16                from Aviva of a 25.5% interest in a 26-unit
  billion, but better than the £5.8 billion transacted             Sainsburys portfolio for €133 million.
  during the first national lockdown in Q2 2020.
                                                                • Student housing accounted for €791 million of all     All sector capital value index
• Portfolios accounted for six of the ten largest deals            investment, the highest quarterly figure since the
                                                                                                                        120
  by value, led by the sale of a seven-unit warehouse              sale of the iQ portfolio in Q1 2020.
  portfolio to BentallGreenOak for €350 million at
                                                                • Activity in the hospitality and leisure markets
  5.5%.
                                                                   remains very limited.
• A further €2.66 billion was deployed in the                                                                           100
                                                                • All property yields remain generally stable,
  industrial sector during Q1 which accounts for over
                                                                   although there is mild yield compression for
  46% of all transactions in the UK.
                                                                   supermarkets and prime assets in prime locations
• It was another quiet quarter for office investment               across most sectors.
                                                                                                                         80
  volumes, with only €1.5 billion transacted. This is                                                                           03’16 09’16 03’17 09’17 03’18 09’18 03’19 09’19 03’20 09’20 03’21
  in line with the Q2 2020 figure, but well below the
                                                                                                                        Source: Colliers        Leeds         Bristol          Manchester
  five-year quarterly average of €5.7 billion.                                                                                                  Glasgow       Birmingham       London

                      Largest Q1 Deal:                    Second-largest Q1 deal:       Largest Q1 single-deal:
                                                                                                                                            John Knowles | Head of National Capital Markets I UK
                      Logistics Portfolio (2.1m           Nido Portfolio (2,163         66-73 Shoe Lane, London
                                                                                                                                            john.knowles@colliers.com
    Highlighted       sq ft of floorspace                 student beds across           EC4 (147,000 sq ft of office
                                                                                                                                            +44 7979 245792
    Top Three         across seven standalone             five assets). Bought by       space). Bought by a four-
    Deals             warehouses). Bought by              Greystar Europe Holding       way joint venture led by
                                                                                                                                            Andrew Thomas | Head of International
                      BentalGreenOak for                  for €336 million.             Wing Tai for
                                                                                                                                            Capital Markets | London
                      €350 million at 5.5%.                                             €295 million at 4.1%.
                                                                                                                                            andrew.thomas@colliers.com
                                                                                                                                            +44 7793 808181
EMEA Market Snapshot Capital Markets | Q1 2021 - Assoimmobiliare
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

Germany                                                                                                                  Sectors
                                                                                                                         to watch
                                                                                                                                                                  Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                  Direction
                                                                                                                                                                                   Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                   Forecast
                                                                                                                         Core assets,              Office                             
                                                                                                                         logistics, food-
The contrast between transaction volumes in Q1 2020 and Q1 2021 is stark. While Q1                                       anchored retail
2020 recorded an all-time high, Q1 2021 witnessed the lowest volumes since 2013, with                                                              Logistics          /            /
                                                                                                                         warehouses/
hardly any large-scale transactions in the €100+ million category. Pricing trends are                                    retail parks, data
                                                                                                                         centres.                  Residential        /            /
limited due to the low volume of deals, but offices are becoming highly sought-after as
the pandemic and remote working evolves.
                                                                                                                                                   Retail                                
Market Review
                                                                                                                                                   Hotel                              
• The investment market has started the year very                • Focus on core assets remains strong. Offices are
  quietly as a lot of core deals boosting volume                    still highly sought after, as the impact of remote
  were signed in Q4 2020. Since then, landmark                      working is now perceived differently compared        All sector capital value index
  deals of €250 million and above have not been                     to the beginning of pandemic. International
  registered in Q1 as deal making takes much longer                 investors showed very low activity but are still     180

  due to constraints from the lockdown. However,                    in wait-and-see mode.
                                                                                                                         160
  sentiment and activity among investors is still at a
  high level.                                                                                                            140

• Despite the absence of landmark deals during Q1,                                                                       120
  the deal pipeline has not dried out, in particular
  when it comes to larger portfolio and platform                                                                         100

  deals. The market is pausing, as investors will                                                                         80
  wait until early summer, when the lockdown                                                                                     03’16 09’16 03’17 09’17 03’18 09’18 03’19 09’19 03’20 09’20 03’21
  is expected to be brought to an end by high
                                                                                                                         Source: Colliers       Berlin         Dusseldorf       Hamburg
  vaccination rates in Germany.                                                                                                                 Frankfurt      Munich

                      High Street Retail                 Office Portfolio                Logistics Deal
                                                                                                                                             Christian Kadel | Head of Capital Markets | Germany
                      7 department stores (2 tier        Headquarter Selection           Tritax brought 2 core
                                                                                                                                             christian.kadel@colliers.com
   Highlighted        cities), RFR (seller), Apollo      Berlin (2 HQ Nike and           logistics assets, the Wayfair
                                                                                                                                             +49 151 68850231
   Top Three          (buyer), approx.                   Klarna; Patrizia (seller),      new European hub at Lich
   Deals              €200 million                       Real IS (buyer),                & Puma at Nuremburg for
                                                         €185 million                    €291 million reflecting a
                                                                                         3.9% GIY
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

France                                                                                                                         Sectors
                                                                                                                               to watch
                                                                                                                                                                        Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                        Direction
                                                                                                                                                                                         Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                         Forecast
                                                                                                                               Office core               Office                             
                                                                                                                               and value-add,
Investment volumes were down in Q1 2021 compared to Q1 2020. Large-scale transactions                                          residential,
were rarer than usual, with a corresponding impact on acquisition volumes. The ongoing                                                                   Logistics                            
                                                                                                                               logistics.
health crisis is causing sellers to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Yield pressure remains in
                                                                                                                                                         Residential                        
core and value-add assets in Paris with strong international demand building.

Market Review                                                                                                                                            Retail                               

• The next quarter should see a resumption in the                 • On the international investor side, the Germans are                                  Hotel                                
  marketing of assets for sale, with sellers having to               still present and are still looking to buy core assets,
  act on disposal plans scheduled for 2021.                          a type of asset that is in high demand and whose
                                                                     pricing level is confirmed. In Q1, pressure remained      All sector capital value index
• Larger investment volumes are expected to
                                                                     strong on core and value-add assets in Paris. Assets
  materialise in the third and fourth quarters,                                                                                150
                                                                     that are less well located or which have leases that
  especially since France is one of the destinations
                                                                     are less secure are those for which the pricing level
  targeted by investors.                                                                                                       125
                                                                     is revised downwards.
• In the first quarter, it was mainly national investors
                                                                  • The first quarter saw the completion of Shift,             100
  who were active, in particular insurance companies
                                                                     Issy-les-Moulineaux for €620 million – 3.75% NIY
  and Société Civiles de Placement Immobilier (SCPIs).
                                                                     to Primonial REIM, EDF Invest, La Française Core.          75

                                                                                                                                50
                                                                                                                                       03’16 09’16 03’17 09’17 03’18 09’18 03’19 09’19 03’20 09’20 03’21

                                                                                                                               Source: Colliers                        Paris

                       Altaïs tower                        Le Square                       Hôtel Mondragon
                       Montreuil                           Paris 8th                       Paris 2th
    Highlighted        37,500 sq m                         7,000 sq m                      14,000 sq m
    Top Three          €250 million - 4.5%                 €200 million – 2.9% NIY         €195 million                                            Philippe Ravoire | Senior Director, Capital Markets
                                                                                                                                                   philippe.ravoire@colliers.com
    Deals              Sellers: Arpent Capital             Seller: PGIM Real Estate        Seller: BNP Paribas
                       / Maple Knoll Capital               Buyer: CNP Assurances           Buyer: JP Morgan & Altarea                              +33 6 86 18 20 86
                       / Okatree Capital                   Core                            Value add
                       Management
                       Buyer: Gulf Islamic
                       Investment (GII) – Core+
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

Netherlands                                                                                                                  Sectors
                                                                                                                             to watch
                                                                                                                                                                      Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                      Direction
                                                                                                                                                                                       Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                       Forecast
                                                                                                                             Residential,              Office                             
                                                                                                                             logistics and
The investment volume in the first quarter of 2021 lagged significantly behind the previous year.                            healthcare.
This is partly because as of January 1, 2021, the real estate transfer tax (RETT) has increased to                                                     Logistics                            
8%, up from the previous rates at 2% for residential and 6% for commercial real estate. Retail is
                                                                                                                                                       Residential                        
experiencing yield pressure in the convenience sector and €100m logistics are in strong demand.

Market Review                                                                                                                                          Retail                               

• Due to the increase in the RETT, many sales                        increase in the second half of the year when
                                                                                                                                                       Hotel                              
   that were initially planned for 2021 had already                  vaccination programmes are well underway, and
   transacted in the final quarter of 2020. Particularly             restrictions have been lifted.
   in the case of residential portfolios where the RETT
                                                                  • Despite the more limited market dynamics, we             All sector capital value index
   impact would have been the largest. Less product
                                                                     have seen little evidence of price shifts in most
   came to market in the first quarter of 2021 as a                                                                          180
                                                                     segments. Only in the retail market a clear decline
   result, and also because investors are awaiting to
                                                                     in price formation is visible. However, this does not   160
   see the impact of the increased RETT on the Q1
                                                                     apply to convenience retail, since there has been an
   2021 valuations.                                                                                                          140
                                                                     increasing demand since the outbreak of COVID-19,
• In addition, the current flight restrictions still mean            and yields are still under downward pressure in         120
   that investors are reluctant to bring new product to              this specific part of the sector.
   the market, especially in the office market, which is                                                                     100
                                                                  • There are several forward funding Logistics units
   more dependent on international capital flows. It is
                                                                     that have come to market in the Netherlands all in       80
   expected that investment activity will significantly                                                                              03’16 09’16 03’17 09’17 03’18 09’18 03’19 09’19 03’20 09’20 03’21
                                                                     excess of €100m and there is strong demand.
                                                                                                                             Source: Colliers             Amsterdam       Rotterdam

                       Union Investment has                 Warburg-HIH Invest            2 Intercity Hotels,
                       partnered with Stellar               Real Estate has               Breda & Leiden
    Highlighted        Development on a                     exchanged contracts to        Commerz Real buys two                                  Dré van Leeuwen | Partner, Executive Director
    Top Three          speculative forward                  buy the 140,000 sq m          new Intercity hotels to be                             Capital Markets & Agency
    Deals              funding logistics portfolio          distribution centre from      built, one in Breda (174                               dre.vanleeuwen@colliers.com
                       in the Netherlands with              the development’s joint       rooms) and one in Leiden                               +31 6 50 67 10 93
                       a total lettable area of             owners, Somerset Capital      (115 rooms), construction
                       around 83,000 sq m for               Partners and USAA             of both hotels is expected
                       ca. €100 million.                    Realco-Europe for             to start in the summer.
                                                            €200 million ca. 4% NIY.
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

Ireland                                                                                                                Sectors
                                                                                                                       to watch
                                                                                                                                                                   Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                   Direction
                                                                                                                                                                                 Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                 Forecast
                                                                                                                       PRS, social               Office                             
                                                                                                                       housing, I&L.
Q1 2021 spend exceeded €1.2bn, which is a 44% increase compared to €674m in Q1 2020
and, impressively, constitutes a 43% increase on the 5 yearly Q1 average of €685m.                                                               Logistics                            

Market Review                                                                                                                                    Residential                        

• The investment spend came despite Ireland                     • Unlike the occupational market for the Office
                                                                                                                                                 Retail                               
  starting 2021 in a nationwide lockdown, which                    sector, investor appetite remained buoyant
  included the closure of all building sites and real              throughout the pandemic. Total spend in this
  estate inspections prohibited. Consequently,                     sector was just below €400m, made up of six                                   Hotel                               
  a large number of launches were put on hold                      deals. Project Tolka was acquired by Blackstone
  until restrictions are lifted. Furthermore, travel               from Colony Capital for approximately €290m,
                                                                                                                       All sector capital value index
  restrictions for international visitors remain in place.         portfolio included a 72/75% interest in four core
                                                                   investments.                                        140
• PRS accounted for 59% of the deals completed,
  which equated to €711m across 11 transactions.                • Demand for core assets across PRS, Office and
  The most notable is a €450m deal however details                 Logistics sectors remained very strong, with the    120
  of this transactions have not been made public. 3 of             lack of supply in these sectors continuing to be
  the top 5 deals were PRS. Real IS were active again              impediment to getting deals agreed as opposed to
  with the acquisition of 134 units in Marina Village,             the appetite from buyers.                           100
  Greystones, Co. Wicklow for €64.5m. Initial purchase
  of 65 units now concluded with contracts exchanged
                                                                                                                        80
  for purchase of a further 69 apartments.                                                                                     03’16 09’16 03’17 09’17 03’18 09’18 03’19 09’19 03’20 09’20 03’21

                                                                                                                       Source: Colliers                   Dublin

                       Office - Project Tolka was        Office - AM ALPHA              PRS - Real IS purchase of
                                                                                                                                           Michele McGarry | Director, Head of Capital Markets
                       acquired by Blackstone            acquired 76 Sir John           134 units: Initial purchase
                                                                                                                                           michele.mcgarry@colliers.com
   Highlighted         from Colony Capital for           Rodgersons Quay, for           of 65 units now concluded
                                                                                                                                           +353 87 2050515
   Top Three           approximately €290m,              €95m, from TIO. The            with contracts exchanged
   Deals               portfolio included 4 core         building is let to Rabo        for purchase of a further
                       office investments ranging        Bank and Algebris and          69 apartments.
                       from 72% to 75% interest.         part vacant.
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

Sweden                                                                                                                         Sectors
                                                                                                                               to watch
                                                                                                                                                                        Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                        Direction
                                                                                                                                                                                         Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                         Forecast
                                                                                                                               The popularity            Office                             
                                                                                                                               of logistic,
Domestic and international investor appetite for the Swedish market remains strong.                                            residential, and
Transaction volume in Q1 of 2021 amounted to €3.3 billion, nominally a contraction by                                                                    Logistics                            
                                                                                                                               public properties
48% year on year, however Q1 2020 was inflated by the fact that SBB purchased Hemfosa                                          continues to rise
                                                                                                                               and will continue         Residential                          
for €2.8 billion in Q1 of 2020. Residential, public and logistics are on the rise, with
                                                                                                                               to dominate the
significant yield pressure.
                                                                                                                               property market.          Retail                               
Market Review
• The negative effects of the pandemic on the                   • The office sector is seeing some activity, but it is still                             Hotel                                
  property market are slowly but surely dissipating                quite low compared to previous quarters. Pricing
  with market activity clearly on the rise. Just as in the         and yield are at a standstill with investors being
                                                                                                                               All sector capital value index
  previous quarter, residential, public, and logistics             hesitant, primarily due to vacancy risk, and property
  properties are the sectors experiencing most                     owners not budging on pre-pandemic valuations.              140
  activity and we are seeing lower and lower yields
                                                                • Investor appetite for both domestic and
  for these sectors.
                                                                   international assets remains substantial,                   120
• The retail and hotel sectors are still experiencing              specifically for residential, public, logistic, and
  a tough time with lower activity as interest in                  prime office properties. We are expecting the
  these sectors continues to be low. Although NIAM                 same behavior in coming quarters with market                100

  purchased three shopping centres from Citycon                    activity primarily in the residential, public, and
  for 1.5 billion SEK these would not be classified as             logistics sectors.
                                                                                                                                80
  traditional shopping centres.                                                                                                        03’16 09’16 03’17 09’17 03’18 09’18 03’19 09’19 03’20 09’20 03’21

                                                                                                                               Source: Colliers                   Stockholm

                       Blackstone/Mileway                Residential – Balder             Retail – Niam purchased
                       have acquired the first           purchased 1,400 BTR              3 shopping centres
    Highlighted        tranche of CastellumAB’s          apartments and 12,000 sq m       located in the greater
    Top Three          portfolio which amounts           of commercial space              Stockholm area from
                                                                                                                                                   Joachim Svedberg | Head of Capital Markets
    Deals              to circa €490 million. The        spread across 10 projects        Citycon for €147 million.
                                                                                                                                                   joachim.svedberg@colliers.com
                       first tranche comprises of        from Serneke for
                                                                                                                                                   +46 70 262 26 06
                       39 properties. The second         €314 million. Approximately
                       tranche is due to close at        75% of the apartments
                       the end of Q1 for                 are located in Stockholm,
                       €1.3 billion.                     Gothenburg and Malmo.
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

Denmark                                                                                                                   Sectors
                                                                                                                          to watch
                                                                                                                                                                   Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                   Direction
                                                                                                                                                                                    Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                    Forecast
                                                                                                                          Residential –             Office                             
                                                                                                                          in particular
The pandemic caused only a brief stir and a moderate slowdown in the Danish                                               affordable
investment market in 2020. Denmark remains a coveted investment destination, with                                                                   Logistics                            
                                                                                                                          housing, prime
prospects of investment activity accelerating in 2021.                                                                    core and value-
                                                                                                                          add office,               Residential                        
Market Review                                                                                                             logistics.
                                                                                                                                                    Retail                              
• The Danish property investment market got off                  • Multiple high-volume transactions are currently in
  to an exceptionally good start in Q1, with strong                 due diligence, and we expect to see sustained brisk
                                                                                                                                                    Hotel                               
  investor appetite from domestic and international                 activity in the months ahead.
  capital alike. Residential investment properties and
  developments are in particularly high demand.
                                                                                                                          All sector capital value index
• International investors are increasingly looking                                                                        140
  to enter the Danish investment property market,
  mainly the residential, Central Business District
  (CBD) office, and logistics sectors, which offer a                                                                      120
  generous spread between investment yields and
  financing costs. Investors are, however, to some
  extent frustrated by a lack of available investment                                                                     100

  opportunities that match their requirements.
                                                                                                                           80
                                                                                                                                  03’16 09’16 03’17 09’17 03’18 09’18 03’19 09’19 03’20 09’20 03’21

                                                                                                                          Source: Colliers                   Copenhagen

                      Starwood acquired the              The Square, a 16,000 sq m      AXA acquired Frimærket, a
                      243-room five-star Skt.            mixed-use building in          new 8,000 sq m residential                            Peter Winther | CEO, Head of Capital Markets
   Highlighted        Petri Hotel, Copenhagen,           a prime Copenhagen             property located in                                   peter.winther@colliers.com
   Top Three          from Strawberry at an              CBD location, was              Herlev on the outskirts of                            +45 28 19 66 76
   Deals              estimated price of €147.9          acquired by AM Alpha,          Copenhagen, at a price of
                      million. Choice remains            on behalf of a German          €39.3 million.
                      the operator.                      private investor, at a price
                                                         of ca. €100 million.
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

Spain                                                                                                                        Sectors
                                                                                                                             to watch
                                                                                                                                                                      Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                      Direction
                                                                                                                                                                                       Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                       Forecast
                                                                                                                             Logistics, holiday Office                                      
                                                                                                                             hotels, residential
The third wave of the pandemic is significantly influencing investment activity. Investment                                  multifamily
volumes have been low, especially when comparing Q1 2021 to the Q1 2020 when the COVID-19                                                        Logistics                                  
                                                                                                                             (BTR – PRS)
pandemic had not fully begun, despite growing appetite and liquidity. There is pressure to invest
                                                                                                                                                       Residential                         
in BTR residential, and industrial and logistics continue to draw great appetite. We look forward
to the vaccination programme speeding up to improve confidence and accelerate investment.
                                                                                                                                                       Retail                               
Market Review
                                                                                                                                                       Hotel                                
• There is a lot of liquidity in the market and a                      distressed hotels deals, but owners are still
   significant growing appetite among investors                        reluctant to sell or drop prices significantly.
   that is not being reflected in transactions due to                                                                        All sector capital value index
                                                                    • In retail, the high street retail sector is the most
   uncertainty. There is also a lack of product that
                                                                       uncertain due to weak consumption and the             180
   meets the requirements of investors, especially core
                                                                       transfer of significant demand to e-commerce.
   investors looking for safe and long-term product.                                                                         160
                                                                       Nevertheless, the supermarket segment continues
• The industrial and logistics sector has continued with               to capture market activity.
                                                                                                                             140
   a huge investors appetite and ambitious returns.
                                                                    • There is also a great interest in senior living, due
                                                                                                                             120
• In residential, there is a lot of pressure to invest in              to the strong Spanish demand fundamentals
   Build to Rent (BTR) and the Private Rented Sector                   that allow investors focused on rental income         100
   (PRS), with an increasing demand and lower middle                   generation from solid underlying assets to enter
   income and good economic fundamentals.                              this asset class.                                      80
                                                                                                                                     03’16 09’16 03’17 09’17 03’18 09’18 03’19 09’19 03’20 09’20 03’21
• The hotels sector is static due to government                     • In general, the yields have remained stable in         Source: Colliers             Barcelona      Madrid
   aid (ICOS and ERTEs). Investors are looking for                     prime areas.

                        Offices: Värde Partners             Residential: Aedas has           Retail: Blackbrook Capital                          Alberto Díaz | Managing Director, Head of Capital Markets
                        has agreed the forward              sold a turnkey portfolio         has acquired a portfolio                            alberto.diaz@colliers.com
    Highlighted         sale of its office tower            of 655 BTR units across          of 22 supermarkets from                             +34 645 801 840
    Top Three           development in the 22@              major cities to the              Grupo Lar. The premises
    Deals               district in Barcelona to            partnership between              are leased to Eroski for 10
                        DWS for €128 million.               by Primonial and Grupo           years closing at €59 million.
                                                            Lar, valued at €120 million.
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

Italy                                                                                                                     Sectors
                                                                                                                          to watch
                                                                                                                                                                    Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                    Direction
                                                                                                                                                                                    Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                    Forecast
                                                                                                                          Logistics                 Office                              
After a strong finish to 2020, this year so far has been relatively slow in terms of
investment activity. Investors’ focus has been on the more COVID-resilient asset classes                                                            Logistics                            
such as core offices, logistics and residential.
                                                                                                                                                    Residential                        
Market Review
                                                                                                                                                    Retail                              
• In the office market the investor focus is mostly              However, retail yields, those for shopping centres
  concentrated on low risk core assets in prime                  in particular, are expected to continue to increase
  locations where continued high demand has                      on the back of muted investors’ interest.                                          Hotel                               
  helped sustain sharp prime yields. However,
                                                              • Finally, residential investments have started gaining
  secondary assets and non-core locations have
                                                                 traction, which is a relatively new asset class in the   All sector capital value index
  begun to suffer from weakening investor demand
                                                                 Italian market. The Reale portfolio deal closed in
  and subsequently softening yields. Value-added                                                                          180
                                                                 December 2020 could represent the first of a long
  opportunities are rare mainly due to financing
                                                                 list of investment opportunities in this field with      160
  issues and the prevailing uncertainty with respect
                                                                 many investors, mainly foreigners, showing strong
  to the evolving new norm in the occupier market.                                                                        140
                                                                 appetite for this asset class. However, with existing
• The increase in e-commerce spending has                        supply levels scarce, development funding options        120
  continued to fuel demand from logistics operators              are increasingly considered. Invesco invested into
  to secure additional space, especially to service              the development project called Sei Milano.               100
  last-mile logistics requirements. Solid occupier
                                                                                                                           80
  market fundamentals have helped investment                                                                                      03’16 09’16 03’17 09’17 03’18 09’18 03’19 09’19 03’20 09’20 03’21
  volumes in Q1 reach close to record levels,
                                                                                                                          Source: Colliers                   Rome     Milan
  sustaining the downward pressure on yields.

                      Logistics – Portfolio of         Hotel – Baglioni Hotel          Mixed-use – Via Roma in
                                                                                                                                              Silvio Sancilio | Head of Capital Markets
                      seven assets in Milan &          Luna in Venice bought by        Turin bought by Zetland
                                                                                                                                              silvio.sancilio@colliers.com
   Highlighted        Rome. €156 million.              Reuben Brothers for             for €55 million.
                                                                                                                                              +39 338 7469372
   Top Three                                           €100 million.
   Deals
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

Poland                                                                                                              Sectors
                                                                                                                    to watch
                                                                                                                                                             Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                             Direction
                                                                                                                                                                              Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                              Forecast
                                                                                                                    Logistics,           Office                                   
                                                                                                                    residential, office.
Momentum returned to the market with €1.27 billion in total investment volume in Q1 2021,
the third best first quarter after Q1 2018 and Q1 2020 (preliminary results). Liquidity is                                                    Logistics                            
returning to the office market with 22 assets across Poland transacted in 11 separate deals.
                                                                                                                                              Residential                          
Market Review
                                                                                                                                              Retail                              
• 58% of total volume was allocated outside of                • A number of office transactions are expected to
  Warsaw, driven by logistics deals for a total of               close in Warsaw in Q2 2021 as Investor sentiment
  €350 million.                                                  towards the office sector returns.                                           Hotel                              

• Capital is looking for core product with strong             • The Industrial and Logistics sector continues
  location and income fundamentals – we expect                   to attract strong Investor interest with yields    All sector capital value index
  that prime yields will continue to decrease in the             continuing to compress.
                                                                                                                    160
  coming quarters. Liquidity is picking up for non-
  central locations, driven value-add buyers.
                                                                                                                    140
• New buyers, such as Stena Fastigheter, PAREF
  and Investika have entered the Polish market with                                                                 120
  office acquisitions.
                                                                                                                    100

                                                                                                                     80
                                                                                                                            03’16 09’16 03’17 09’17 03’18 09’18 03’19 09’19 03’20 09’20 03’21

                                                                                                                    Source: Colliers                   Warsaw

                      Acquisition of Buma              Purchase of Villa Offices       Savills IM has agreed to
                      office portfolio (9 office       in Warsaw by KGAL from          acquire a logistics asset
   Highlighted        Wrocław and Kraków)              Echo Investment S.A.            in Lodz, Poland for
                                                                                                                                        Piotr Mirowski | Senior Partner, Head of Capital Markets
   Top Three          by Partners Capital via          for €86.7 million at 4.7%       €65.5 million from Tritax
                                                                                                                                        piotr.mirowski@colliers.com
   Deals              REINO accounting for             NIY was the first post-         at 4.95% NIY.
                                                                                                                                        +48 512 233 228
                      €200 million - the largest       pandemic core deal in
                      office deal in Q1 2021.          the City Centre West,
                                                       highlighting returning
                                                       liquidity and capital
                                                       appreciation.
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

Czech Republic                                                                                                           Sectors
                                                                                                                         to watch
                                                                                                                                                                     Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                     Direction
                                                                                                                                                                                   Qrt Pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                   Forecast
                                                                                                                         Residential,              Office                             
                                                                                                                         industrial, core
The Czech market is still slow in comparison to previous years. Market fundamentals                                      offices.
remain good, as does the demand for core and core+ assets, but the market is                                                                       Logistics                            
experiencing limited supply of the right investment product.
                                                                                                                                                   Residential                        
Market Review
                                                                                                                                                   Retail                             
• With the Czech Republic still very much in the grip           • The residential sector, and especially PRS, is
  of the pandemic, real estate investment volumes                 considered one of the rising investment asset
                                                                                                                                                   Hotel                              
  remain slow in comparison to previous years.                    classes in the Czech Republic. Investors are
  There is evidence of continued demand for prime                 currently exploring the possibilities and, while the
  office, industrial and Private Rented Sector (PRS)              market is in its infancy, the first major deals have
                                                                                                                         All sector capital value index
  in particular, yet options for investment are few.              already been transacted. As a result, developers
  This is also one of the main reasons why more                   are starting to focus more on this product, as         160
  and more of the typically active local investors are            opposed to individual unit sales. The industrial
  looking for new acquisitions abroad, particularly in            sector is also enjoying much greater interest          140
  Poland and Germany. Investors all agree on their                from investors. However, as the Czech market
  intention of expanding their portfolios in 2021, but            is composed mostly of long-term holders, land          120
  due to the progress in managing the pandemic,                   acquisition is also a path to follow, as Lidl proved
  we predict this activity will come in the second half           with buying large development land for a local         100
  of the year.                                                    distribution center near Pilsen.
                                                                                                                          80
                                                                                                                                 03’16 09’16 03’17 09’17 03’18 09’18 03’19 09’19 03’20 09’20 03’21

                                                                                                                         Source: Colliers                   Prague

                      Industrial: Arete CZ&SK           Office: Parkview office        Residential: Unicity                                  Andy Thompson | Director Czech & Slovak Republics
                      Industrial Portfolio              building in Prague 4,          Residential portfolio of                              CEE Capital Markets
   Highlighted        consisting 11 properties          sold by Skanska for            226 apartments in Plzeň                               andy.thompson@colliers.com
   Top Three          across Czech Republic and         €77 million to Deka            was sold by Daramis to                                +420 731 151 279
   Deals              Slovakia, acquired                Immobilien.                    Heimstaden.
                      by Cromwell for
                      ca €115 million.
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

Contacts
For more information please use the contact details below:

EMEA Team                                          Local research leads

Christian King                                     Josef Stanko                               Frank Verwoerd
Client Services, Cross Border Capital | EMEA       Research Analyst | Czech Republic          Head of Research & Market Intelligence | Netherlands
+44 7981 704448                                    josef.stanko@colliers.com                  frank.verwoerd@colliers.com
christian.king@colliers.com                        +420 728 175 024                           +31 6 12 63 87 15

Damian Harrington                                  Emil Helmsøe-Zinck                         Dominika Jedrak
Director, Head of Research | EMEA                  Head of Valuation and Advisory | Denmark   Director Research and Consultancy Services | Poland
+44 7867 360489                                    emil.helmsoee-zinck@colliers.com           dominika.jedrak@collirs.com
damian.harrington@colliers.com                     +45 30 23 96 41                            +48 666 819 242

Istvan Toth                                        Laurence Bouard                            Jorge Laguna
Associate Director, Research | EMEA                Head of Research | France                  Business Intelligent Director, Head of Research | Spain
+44 20 7487 1899                                   laurence.bouard@colliers.com               jorge.laguna@Colliers.com
istvan.toth@colliers.com                           +33 6 81 56 49 02                          +34 654 387 110

                                                   Susanne Kiese                              Jack Hanna
                                                   Head of Research | Germany                 Analyst, Capital Markets | Sweden
                                                   susanne.kiese@colliers.com                 jack.hanna@colliers.com
                                                   +49 151 55110942                           +46 70 869 70 08

                                                   Simone Roberti                             Dr. Walter Boettcher
                                                   Head of Research | Italy                   Head of Research and Economics I UK
                                                   simone.roberti@colliers.com                walter.boettcher@colliers.com
                                                   +39 348 3806762
EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2021

                                                                        The world of Colliers
                                                                                                                                                                                          View our other recent
                                                                                                                                                                                            Market Snapshots
                                                                                                                                                                                            by clicking on the
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                             Annualized Revenue                                         Established in                                       Managing                                            APAC

                                  $3.3B                                                       67                                                2B
                                       (US$)                                               Countries                                       (square feet)

                                                                                                                                                                                                  U.S.
                            Lease/sale transactions                           Assets under management                                     Comprised of

                                54,000                                                   $40B                                           18,000+
                                                                                                                                         (professionals)

          All stats are for 2020, are in U.S. dollars and include affiliates                                                                                                                    coming soon

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   This report gives information based primarily on Colliers International data, which may be helpful in anticipating trends in the property sector. However, no warranty is given
   as to the accuracy of, and no liability for negligence is accepted in relation to, the forecasts, figures or conclusions contained in this report and they must not be relied on for
   investment or any other purposes. This report does not constitute and must not be treated as investment or valuation advice or an offer to buy or sell property.

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