5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker

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5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker
Zespri
               5 Year Outlook

     A.             B.                         C.        D.
Introduction     Industry                   CATEGORY   BEYOND
                  Context                   UPDATES     2026

                            december 2021
5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker
a.         Introduction

Introduction
Purpose of this communication
This Outlook provides an overview of Zespri’s Five-Year          on the supply chain, greater shipping congestion and                 consumers, helps to place us ahead of the competition
Plan, which is updated and reviewed by the Zespri Board          significant challenges in securing labour. More information on       and to command a premium price.
annually, with this edition covering the period from             these risks can be found on page 5.
                                                                                                                                  •   SunGold Kiwifruit consumer demand continues to
2021/22 to 2026/27.
                                                                 Ahead of the challenges facing the 2022 season, the                  rise, and this is reflected in strong distributor and
The publication provides growers, industry representatives       industry has been planning its approach to smooth out                retailer support.
and shareholders with a summary of how Zespri’s medium-          the flow of fruit to maximise industry picking and packing
                                                                                                                                  •   SunGold Kiwifruit will drive future volume and revenue
term strategy will be implemented by category and sets           capacity. This includes a rebalance of the trade-off between
                                                                                                                                      growth, having surpassed Green in its share of the total
out some of the key challenges and opportunities ahead.          the taste incentive and Kiwistart rates, and operational
                                                                                                                                      Zespri portfolio in 2020 and again in 2021.
It relies on several assumptions and as expected, the            planning on pack mix, supported by a shipping schedule
further out we look, the less certain we become of these         designed to present our fruit to market for a strong early       •   Confidence in demand during the Zespri Global Supply
assumptions, with the plan becoming more directional.            start to the season.                                                 (ZGS) season remains high with strong demand signals
                                                                                                                                      globally. ZGS is completing a strategy refresh in order
Our intent with this Outlook is to provide information for       While refinements have been made to improve harvest
                                                                                                                                      to provide 12-month supply in support of the New
stakeholders to help inform their business decisions, whether    flow for SunGold Kiwifruit, it is important to note taste
                                                                                                                                      Zealand supply season. The proposed increase in volume
that is investing, divesting or changing their variety mix.      remains a key driver of the value and sales generated in our
                                                                                                                                      demonstrates the growth phase we are in as we continue
                                                                 markets around the world. Growers will be aware that we’re
Key points from this Outlook                                     undertaking a comprehensive Taste Zespri review ahead
                                                                                                                                      to build supply to meet demand – across both Northern
                                                                                                                                      Hemisphere and New Zealand production locations.
                                                                 of the 2023 season, underpinned by the findings of the
Zespri’s mission is to create sustainable long-term value for
                                                                 consumer sensory, grower enablement, and supply chain            •   A balanced portfolio will remain important, with demand
kiwifruit growers by offering consumers the world’s leading
                                                                 research projects.                                                   for Organic a significant opportunity, as long as the
portfolio of branded kiwifruit for all 12 months of the year.
                                                                                                                                      balance between supply and demand is maintained.
                                                                 While this Outlook acknowledges the challenges we’re
Ensuring we deliver value to growers by doing the best for
                                                                 seeing in our current operating environment, what hasn’t         •   Meeting demand requires continued innovation and
our consumers has guided us for the past decade, and will
                                                                 changed are the following general points:                            investment by Zespri, growers, post-harvest operators,
continue to guide us for years to come.
                                                                 •   Zespri remains incredibly confident in the market outlook,       customers and partners across the supply chain. The
This Outlook reflects the continued lift in global demand for        with global demand for our fruit continuing to strengthen,       implications of the strong growth in supply we are
Zespri Kiwifruit, which has been accelerated by investment in        along with the value we are able to capture for growers,         experiencing adds pressure right across the industry.
sales and marketing to build our brand, as well as increasing        if we maintain our approach of building market demand            Planning is underway to identify the most significant
demand from consumers for fresh, healthy and great-tasting           ahead of supply.                                                 opportunities to make adjustments that will provide
products.                                                                                                                             a smoother flow of fruit next season and to mitigate
                                                                 •   Supply volumes are increasing with growers achieving             the impact of the looming labour shortage, as well as
While we’re seeing growing interest in the kiwifruit category,       strong yields per hectare, and with a continued focus            significant shipping disruptions and handling issues
the Five-Year Plan does factor in the immediate headwinds the        on delivering high quality fruit to our markets. A focus         throughout the supply and distribution base.
industry is facing, including: the ongoing impact of COVID-19        on taste and quality, especially storage, accompanied
                                                                     by our brand purpose and level of recognition among
 2   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker
a.         Introduction

•       Supply costs are forecast to continue to increase for       •   New Zealand supply of Class 1 conventional SunGold                Recent orchard conversions has meant there is sufficient
        all varieties across all aspects of growing, harvesting,        Kiwifruit increases from nearly 98 million trays in 2021/22       supply to meet projected growth in market demand. Being
        packing and cool-chain. This is driven by global shipping       to 161 million trays in 2026/27. This growth is being             a relatively small pool, it is sensitive to supply and demand
        constraints, a labour shortage, costs associated with           driven by the ongoing programme of licence release as             dynamics. Potential future licence allocation will be
        compliance and the need for strong investment in post-          signalled below.                                                  reviewed annually.
        harvest in New Zealand to build extra capacity
        for growth in crop volume.                                  •   Zespri remains committed to releasing conventional            •   There is expected to be 9,650 hectares of both SunGold
                                                                        SunGold Kiwifruit hectares and our latest demand                  Kiwifruit and Organic SunGold Kiwifruit planted in New
Overview of demand and supply                                           forecast supports the release of 350 hectares in 2022.            Zealand by 2023/24. When fully mature by around 2026,
                                                                        This is less than the 700 hectares released in previous           this will deliver around 160 million trays at current yield
•       This Five-Year Outlook sees an increase in total New
                                                                        years, with the reduction driven by a need to maintain            estimates. Zespri also currently has 3,610 planted SunGold
        Zealand Class 1 supply from 178 million trays in 2021/22
                                                                        sustainable returns for growers and ensure supply does            Kiwifruit hectares in the ground in our offshore growing
        to 238 million trays in 2026/27. This is equivalent to
                                                                        not exceed projected future market demand given                   locations (as of 31 March 2021).
        33 percent volume growth and includes the estimated
                                                                        improving grower yields. Onshore supply challenges
        commercial volumes of Zespri RubyRed Kiwifruit                                                                                •   New Zealand supply of Class 1 conventional Green is
                                                                        including labour have also been factored in. The
        production established by 2025.                                                                                                   forecast to reduce from around 74 million trays in 2021/22
                                                                        indication for SunGold Kiwifruit licence release during
                                                                                                                                          to around 59 million trays in 2026/27 through conversion
•       Across the same period we are forecasting per tray              2023-2026 is in the range of 350-700 hectares per
                                                                                                                                          to other varieties and removal of orchards, which should
        Orchard Gate Return ranges of:                                  annum, subject to annual review. This is to meet the year-
                                                                                                                                          result in increased per tray value for the category. Green
                                                                        on-year constrained target demand growth volume of 10
          • Zespri SunGold Kiwifruit:           $8.00 to $12.00                                                                           value is sensitive to supply and demand dynamics given
                                                                        to 14 million trays per annum. It is important to note the
          • Zespri Organic SunGold Kiwifruit:   $10.00 to $14.00                                                                          the competition from non Zespri Green. Note this estimate
                                                                        programme is subject to an annual review that considers
                                                                                                                                          does not factor in the potential loss of hydrogen cyanamide
          • Zespri Green Kiwifruit:             $6.50 to $8.50          any potential new risks, as well as the level of market
                                                                                                                                          which would have a significant impact on green growers.
            (depending on declining volumes)                            demand. The analysis of risk would include both demand-
          • Zespri Organic Green Kiwifruit:     $9.00 to $11.00         side and supply-side factors.                                 •   On the supply side, our strategy is about maximising quality
                                                                                                                                          to markets through an efficient supply chain which passes
          • Zespri RubyRed Kiwifruit:           $10.50 to $13.00    •   Zespri will release 350 hectares of Zespri RubyRed
                                                                                                                                          market signals back to growers and partners across our
                                                                        Kiwifruit licence in 2022 via a Closed Tender Bid. The
•       Of the 2026/27 total volume of Class 1 supply, our plan                                                                           supply base.
                                                                        indication for Zespri RubyRed licence release in 2023 is
        forecasts New Zealand supply of nearly 238 million
                                                                        up to 500 hectares, subject to annual review.                 •   On the demand side our market development framework
        trays and non-New Zealand supply of around 43 million
                                                                                                                                          and strategy are about optimising product choices and
        trays. However, non-New Zealand supply is currently         •   The Five-Year Plan forecasts a significant rise in New
                                                                                                                                          service levels for our retail and distribution customers. This
        undergoing a strategy refresh to consider how its further       Zealand supply of Class 1 Organic SunGold Kiwifruit from
                                                                                                                                          is delivered through a robust, sustainable, supply chain
        expansion can support the New Zealand supply business.          around 2.5 million trays supplied in 2021/22 to over 6
                                                                                                                                          that reliably delivers safe, healthy, traceable, high-quality,
                                                                        million trays supplied in 2026/27. There will be no release
                                                                                                                                          branded kiwifruit, supported by world-class sales and
                                                                        of Organic SunGold Kiwifruit licence in 2022.
                                                                                                                                          marketing to meets our consumer needs.

    3    Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker
B.    Industry Context

Industry Context
Opportunities
The macro-level trends for the next five years include          of consumers. Demand is strong and growing, with more         • Enhancing product sustainability: A programme of
several positive factors in terms of consumer and               people wanting to buy our fruit because they know it            work is underway to explore opportunities to provide
consumption trends that support the marketing of a              tastes great, it is healthy, and it is grown in a way which     the world with carbon zero kiwifruit as part of our
premium, healthy product. Zespri has identified the             is good for the environment and our communities.                goal to lead the kiwifruit industry’s transition to a
following macro-level trends:                                                                                                   low-carbon future.
                                                             • Strong brands perform well in times of crisis with
• Health will be at the core of lifestyle decisions, with      consumers turning to brands they know and trust.               • Greater digital transformation through the Horizon
  fruit being the most consumed product at snacking            On top of brand familiarity, consumers are also seeking          programme which will enable Zespri to be more
  occasions, especially around mid-morning.                    assurance about the safety of products.                          effective and efficient in how we optimise supply in
                                                                                                                                markets and how we deliver our product to consumers
• An increasing focus on sustainability, with consumers      Within this context, Zespri has identified a number of areas
                                                                                                                                and return value to growers.
  and retailers increasingly seeking products which          to drive demand over the next five years, uplifting value and
  align with their own values – including considering        offsetting risks, including:                                     • Value-adding and more sustainable packaging formats
  their impact on the environment and climate change.                                                                           allowing better targeting, and placements in-store,
                                                             • A globally-consistent and meaningful brand identity
  Regulators around the world are also increasingly                                                                             increasing conversion and uplifting value. Immediate
                                                               with fewer campaigns, bigger impact and better results
  demanding more sustainable practice, particularly with                                                                        off the shelf solutions are a work in progress to leverage
                                                               unlocking the interest of new consumers and resonating
  regards to plastics and packaging.                                                                                            consumers’ willingness to pay for value and more
                                                               with our loyal ones.
                                                                                                                                sustainable pack types, particularly in markets like
• Demand for optimised living, which will see a rise in
                                                             • Connecting with consumers who support brands where               Europe where the need is higher.
  products (fresh cut or processed format versus whole
                                                               looking after people and the environment is a core
  fresh fruit) and services (i.e. online shopping and                                                                         • A Ready to Eat (RTE) initiative with select customers,
                                                               part of their business. Zespri is continuing its efforts
  automation) that are convenient for consumers.                                                                                building on experiences in established RTE markets
                                                               to meet our sustainability commitments, including the
                                                                                                                                like Japan.
• Changing retailing landscape for fruit, with discounters     need to take action to transition to a climate-resistant
  and e-commerce growing a bigger base. Determining            future, lift employment standards and make progress on         • Sales excellence and capability build being developed
  the success model in these fast-growing channels is          sustainable packaging.                                           and implemented to improve joint business planning,
  important.                                                                                                                    distributor management and in-store execution.
                                                             • ZGS: Our global supply strategy is critical to attracting
• Positive category growth globally, coupled with              new customers to our product and realising benefits            • Kiwifruit Breeding Centre established in partnership
  significant category headroom, offers plenty of              for New Zealand growers through the advantages of                with Plant & Food Research to speed up the
  opportunity for Zespri to continue to pique the interest     12-month supply.                                                 development of new varieties to create more value for
                                                                                                                                growers and attract new consumers to the category.

 4   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker
B.     Industry Context

Challenges and Risks
While our future is positive, growers should consider the                 unauthorised G3 plantings and while enforcement              •   Brand reputation and sustainability: For example,
risks of growing and exporting kiwifruit from New Zealand                 is challenging and complex, we have in place a                   addressing consumer concerns around plastics,
within a context of there being both risk and opportunity                 framework to monitor our key channels and accounts.              non-compostable and non-recyclable material in our
and configure their businesses accordingly.                               Zespri is continuing to work to understand the nature            packaging as well as addressing the environmental
                                                                          of the unauthorised G3 threat through a research and             challenges we contribute to and are affected by, such as
Some factors growers and investors should be aware
                                                                          development programme assessing local fruit quality              water quality and climate change. We have implemented
of include:
                                                                          and industry practices.                                          our industry sustainability framework and set a number
•       COVID-19: While the kiwifruit industry has robust health                                                                           of targets to support each of our priorities. They cover
                                                                      •   Biosecurity: Unwanted pests and disease could
        and food safety protocols to ensure only the highest-                                                                              the following five areas:
                                                                          impact crop quality and volume, as well New Zealand’s
        quality, safe kiwifruit gets to market, COVID-19 continues
                                                                          reputation and market access. For example, the high risk         1. Our packaging will be 100 percent recyclable,
        to impact the global supply chain. The long-term impact
                                                                          and potential consequence of Brown Marmorated Stink                 reusable or compostable by 2025.
        of the pandemic remains uncertain, though we expect
                                                                          Bug has made it a priority for biosecurity readiness and
        significant ongoing disruption in the short-term.                                                                                  2. By 2025 our industry will more effectively monitor
                                                                          response for both the industry biosecurity organisation,
                                                                                                                                              nutrient inputs and losses as well as our impact on
•       Labour: As kiwifruit production increases, so will the            Kiwifruit Vine Health (KVH), and the Ministry for Primary
                                                                                                                                              water, protecting and enhancing water quality.
        demand for seasonal labour to pick, pack and prune.               Industries, and the industry remains alert to potential
        The labour shortage for 2022 is estimated to be 6,500             fruit fly incursions.                                            3. We will become carbon positive by 2035.
        people at the peak, compared to 4,500 in 2021. The
                                                                      •   Loss of market access: While Zespri is working hard              4. We will be an industry where people want to work
        industry and NZKGI continues to create a positive
                                                                          to broaden our market base, the loss of access to any               because they know it’s a great place to work.
        working environment for all workers, and has responded
                                                                          major market during a season could result in an over-
        to the challenge with labour attraction campaigns,                                                                                 5. And we will do even more to help people lead
                                                                          supply of fruit relative to demand. Market access can
        training programmes, and by enforcing compliance,                                                                                     healthier lives.
                                                                          be impacted by several factors, either indirect or direct.
        increasing pay rates, investing in people and automation
                                                                          For example, phytosanitary, regulatory, food safety,         •   Climate change: Zespri’s climate change strategy sets
        and establishing long-term pathways for permanent
                                                                          COVID-19, biosecurity, compliance changes and broader            out how we will work with the kiwifruit industry to help
        employment.
                                                                          global trade relations and geopolitics. Zespri is working        lead the transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient
•       Unauthorised G3 in China: The impact of unauthorised              to mitigate this risk by maintaining a broad demand              future. Preparing for the impacts of climate change
        G3 plantings in China and the risk of further growth              base and faster development of large volume markets,             is important to us and we’re investing in research on
        remains a significant risk. The harvest window is in direct       close monitoring of our environment, strong government           climate adaptation strategies. This includes future
        competition with New Zealand fruit in the last quarter            relations and adherence to robust supply protocols. This         growing systems and the development of new varieties
        of the year and with non New Zealand-grown ZGS fruit              is combined with a good risk management framework                of kiwifruit that are more resilient to drought and pests.
        in our counter-season. Zespri continues to monitor                and risk mitigation strategies for various scenarios.

    5     Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker
B.     Industry Context

        In 2021 we commissioned research to understand our         •   Supply deficiencies in volume and quality: Deficiencies     •   Shipping: Ongoing pressure on the global shipping
        climate risks in all our growing regions, and published        can enable competitors to fill the gaps resulting               network continues to be challenging, although we’re in
        our Climate Change Risks & Opportunities report,               from Zespri’s strong demand creation driven by                  a relatively strong position in Europe. We will be looking
        aligning with the best-practice standard, The Taskforce        consumer pull.                                                  to procure ‘buffer’ shipping to allow for the increase in
        for Climate-Related Financial Disclosure (TCFD). We also                                                                       the 2022/23 season crop, and we’ll be exploring the
                                                                   •   Speed of business capability development: Continued
        measured our core emissions at Zespri and published                                                                            use of Advanced Movement in markets to alleviate
                                                                       investment will be required to support the growth
        these in our 2020/21 Annual Report.                                                                                            the impacts.
                                                                       including in people, processes and systems.
•       Hydrogen cyanamide: At the time of publication, the                                                                        •   Post-harvest capacity: Growing post-harvest and cool
                                                                   •   Horizon: Horizon is an ambitious investment to replace
        Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) was consulting                                                                        store capacity is crucial to managing growing volumes
                                                                       ageing internal systems and processes and Zespri is
        on its recommendation to phase out the use of                                                                                  to meet consumer demand. Zespri continues to work
                                                                       continuing to take a phased approach to ensure that
        hydrogen cyanamide over five years. Losing this product                                                                        with post-harvest providers to analyse and identify
                                                                       we manage programme delivery well. Each tranche of
        which is used for budbreak enhancement would have a                                                                            opportunities to manage peak season volumes in
                                                                       the programme requires a detailed business case and
        significant impact on the industry and we’re committed                                                                         packhouse and cool storage facilities.
                                                                       will be funded within the limits of our current funding
        to making the strongest case to the EPA outlining how
                                                                       model. Tranche one addresses foundational systems and       •   Non-compliance: Consumers, regulators and
        the industry can keep using the product safely – for
                                                                       processes within Zespri’s finance and core supply chain,        communities are increasingly concerned about
        people and the environment. Work underway includes
                                                                       with solutions due to be delivered in August 2022. The          compliance issues and brands being good members
        the submission process itself; understanding any
                                                                       initiation of the second tranche will include engagement        of their communities, resulting in a higher level of
        immediate restrictions on the use of the product; past
                                                                       with the industry on solutions across the extended              scrutiny on industries like ours. Any issues like worker
        research and trials into alternative products and on-
                                                                       supply chain, quality management, sales, and grower             exploitation, water quality, or poor spray management
        orchard management techniques to reduce the impact
                                                                       enablement, with delivery from late 2023.                       could attract negative attention, impact on our
        of any loss of hydrogen cyanamide; and continuing our
                                                                                                                                       reputation, our social licence and our ability to operate
        strategic exploration of new cultivars that may offer      •   Increasing on-orchard costs: Inflationary pressure,
                                                                                                                                       without greater regulatory constraints, and to attract the
        greater resilience to warmer winter climates in the            ongoing legislative changes including to the minimum
                                                                                                                                       value enabled by being a premium brand. Zespri will
        future.                                                        wage and workplace regulations legislation, other
                                                                                                                                       continue to work with the industry to enforce standards
                                                                       compliance costs including in the environmental
•       Increasing competition: The competitive environment                                                                            and take action against anybody failing to comply so
                                                                       regulatory space as these costs are expected to increase.
        continues to become more challenging as competitors                                                                            that we can protect the value we have created together
        try to leverage the category demand and value space        •   Global economic risks: On top of the ongoing uncertainty        as an industry.
        created by Zespri. This includes more volume of                created by COVID-19, we are seeing increasing global
                                                                                                                                   •   Exchange rates: Industry returns have benefitted in
        competitor red and yellow varieties, especially during         debt levels and market and debt bubbles in some
                                                                                                                                       recent years from favourable currency rates, supported
        the Northern Hemisphere supply window. More branded            countries, raising the risks of economic volatility and
                                                                                                                                       by Zespri’s hedging policy. However, growers should be
        kiwifruit products are being seen in the market. We are        financial crises.
                                                                                                                                       aware that there is potential for negative impact due to
        continuing to monitor change in this space.
                                                                                                                                       exchange rate movements in future years.

    6     Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker
C. Category Updates

Category Updates
                                                                                                                    GREEN VOLUME VS RETURNS
ZESPRI GREEN (HAYWARD)                                            100,000,000

Situation and challenges                                           90,000,000                                                                                                                                         $90,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                        75,490
There is continued demand for Class 1 conventional Zespri
Green, although large year-on-year fluctuations in supply          80,000,000                                                                                                                                         $80,000
do challenge the ability to hold and build sustainable
value in the category in the long-term. As volumes decline,        70,000,000                                                                                                                                         $70,000
we expect Orchard Gate Returns of $6.50 - $8.50 TE
or $71,000-$88,000 at the per hectare level, based on              60,000,000                                                                                                                                         $60,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                $ OGR per hectare
average yields. The supply versus demand dynamic is
more sensitive for Green with the level of competition and         50,000,000                                                                                                                                         $50,000
supply volume in any given year impacting returns, with                                                                                                                                              7.51

                                                              TE
lower volumes delivering higher returns.                                                                                                                             6.71
                                                                   40,000,000       29,561                                                                                                                            $40,000
                                                                                                                                       6.01
As well as a stabilisation in volumes, to be able to build                                                                                        5.13
                                                                                                                                                                                           6.67                6.34
demand ahead of supply, other key drivers for maintaining          30,000,000                                               5.23                                                5.45                                  $30,000
and building the value of Green are: maintaining our                                                              4.62                                        4.36
                                                                                           4.21
competitive advantage through delivering better quality,           20,000,000 3.70                    3.80                                                                                                            $20,000
bigger size and higher taste fruit than our competition;
continuing to work with customers to understand how                10,000,000                                                                                                                                         $10,000
providing ready-to-eat fruit can drive Green run rates;
and, maintaining our focus on developing sales channels
                                                                             0                                                                                                                                        -
and marketing the health benefits of this healthy product.                       2009-10    2010-11   2011-12   2012-13   2013-14   2014-15    2015-16   2016-17   2017-18    2018-19   2019-20   2020-21 2021-22f

We continue to build our understanding of the extent to
                                                                                                           Volume TE                          $ per TE                       $ OGR per Ha
which consumers substitute SunGold Kiwifruit for Green.
Currently the data suggests there is a relatively small
substitution effect depending on the price differential. It   most part, of an inferior quality and sold at a cheaper price                          grafting to new varieties and others making the decision to
appears SunGold Kiwifruit takes more market share from        point. This creates challenges in attracting new consumers                             pull out of Green altogether, whether for economic reasons or
other fruits than from green kiwifruit. There is demand       to Zespri’s premium Green.                                                             alternate land use drivers.
for Green and sufficient supply is required to maintain
                                                              On the supply side, Green has seen high volume volatility over                         This can be expected to have the effect of reducing
a balanced portfolio for our customers as well as our
                                                              recent seasons as illustrated in the chart above.                                      Green hectares and supporting Green per tray and per
category leadership. Most of the competitive kiwifruit
                                                                                                                                                     hectare returns.
grown outside of New Zealand is still green and for the       However, we forecast that supply of Green will decline,
                                                              particularly over the later years of the next five years, due to

 7   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker
C. Category Updates

Marketing and market development
Optimising the taste and size attributes of the product             •    In the long-term, Zespri is focused on deepening         Through this planning window we aim to maintain average
remain the most important aspects of differentiating Zespri              penetration into the value chain and enhancing           per hectare returns of $71,000-$88,000, subject to
Green from competitor greens around the world and                        retail relationships.                                    seasonal factors. We note that very low yield years, of less
maintaining our price positioning. Zespri will also continue                                                                      than 9,000 trays per hectare and other risks noted in this
to invest and focus on providing customers and consumers            Points ahead                                                  document, would challenge this outlook.
with ready-to-retail and ready-to-eat kiwifruit.
                                                                    Hayward continues to be the predominant green cultivar        Zespri Global Supply view
Building strong demand requires several elements:                   globally, although we are aware of new greens with
                                                                                                                                  Northern Hemisphere Green volumes are procured under
                                                                    stronger consumer attributes, but not necessarily strong
•       Investing in market and sales channel development to                                                                      a trading model, therefore available volumes and price are
                                                                    performance right across the value chain. We expect that
        build a broadened distribution base.                                                                                      highly dependent on the fluctuations in supply in any
                                                                    in the longer term someone may be successful in breeding
                                                                                                                                  given season.
•       Optimising product quality, taste and availability for      a better green that will take significant market share
        early and late supply.                                      from Hayward should they be able to get the necessary         While in the past we have sourced Hayward primarily from
                                                                    consumer, storage and yield characteristics optimised. We     Italy, we are now sourcing an increasing amount of fruit
•       Strengthening retail relationships, creating awareness of
                                                                    are continuing our strategic exploration of new cultivars     from Greece. Procurement of Hayward from Europe has
        Zespri’s quality attributes.
                                                                    that may offer greater resilience to warmer winter climates   increased since 2018 to 36,000 tonnes of which over 30
•       Investing in brand marketing to create consumer             in the future, with a focus on speeding up this process in    percent is now procured from Greece.
        demand for our premium proposition.                         light of the reassessment of hydrogen cyanamide and the
                                                                                                                                  As well as working with Italian growers on tackling pest
                                                                    impact losing this product would have on the industry, and
•       Focusing strongly on health communication to recruit                                                                      and disease issues, Zespri has been working closely with
                                                                    in particular Green growers in warmer areas.
        more regular eaters of kiwifruit to the category,                                                                         Greek suppliers to fill this gap, with fruit quality improving
        particularly around the digestive health properties of      From a Zespri perspective, our high-level approach is to:     significantly. We look forward to these Greek volumes
        Green Kiwifruit.                                                                                                          increasing further in the coming years.
                                                                    1.    Work systematically to optimise the quality of Zespri
•       Offering 12-month supply to customers to maintain                 Green kiwifruit and to grow demand for Green 12
        Zespri’s position, where possible.                                months of the year at sustainable long-term value.

•       In terms of market allocation, Europe will continue to      2.    To continue the long-term work of breeding and
        take the largest share of Green through the next five             commercialising a new green that will unlock further
        years. However, as volumes decline, market mix will also          growth in the green category.
        add value as higher returning markets such as Japan and
        Korea are anticipated to make up a higher proportion of
        the global allocation.

    8     Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker
C. Category Updates

Distribution of performance                                                                                                    ZESPRI™ GREEN KIWIFRUIT – FRUIT & SERVICE PAYMENTS 2021/22
across orchards                                                                                                              $220,000         (based on E3 November forecast)
Based on the November 2021/22 season forecast, the                                                                           $200,000

average Fruit and Service Payment, including loyalty, paid                                                                   $180,000
per hectare is $120,400. The average yield is 11,908 trays                                                                   $160,000
per hectare which is up from 10,214 trays per hectare in

                                                                                                Payment ($ per hectare)
                                                                                                                             $140,000
2020/21. The average size per tray is 32.6, which is larger
than the previous season result of 33.8. The largest portion                                                                  $120,000
of the Fruit and Service Payment (excluding loyalty) is                                                                      $100,000
fruit payments (46 percent), which comprises a submit
                                                                                                                              $80,000
payment of $2.44 per tray and progress payments of $2.11
per tray. The Taste Zespri Grade contributed $3.17 per tray                                                                   $60,000
on average, and taste contributed 32 percent of the overall                                                                   $40,000
Fruit and Service Payment (excluding loyalty).                  Lorem ipsum
                                                                                                                              $20,000

Orchard Gate Return                                                                                                                 $-
                                                                                                                                                                                   Grower Number
The November 2021/22 forecast shows the Zespri Green                                                                                               (payments exclude pack, Class 2 & NSS, Supplier Accountability, Priority premium)
average OGR per hectare at $75,490.
                                                                                                                                             Time/Ha               Taste Zespri/Ha     Kiwistart/Ha            Fruit Pmt/Ha      Loyalty/Ha
The projected OGR range per hectare, based on Zespri’s
Five-Year Plan is between $71,000-$88,000.

On-orchard costs are not provided in this chart, and we
                                                                                                                                                                      ZESPRI™ GREEN OGR PER HECTARE
                                                                                           $100,000
note that costs can vary quite significantly from orchard to
                                                                                           $90,000
orchard. Growers will know their costs best from their own
                                                                                           $80,000
experience and data.
                                                                                           $70,000
                                                                     OGR ($ per hectare)

We note that there are several cost factors outside of                                     $60,000

Zespri’s control that could increase at a rate above historic                              $50,000

trends. This includes, among other things, continuing                                      $40,000

increases in wage rates, freight costs and foreign                                         $30,000

exchange fluctuations and potentially in costs associated                                  $20,000

                                                                                            $10,000
with compliance.
                                                                                                         -
                                                                                                                          2007-08        2009-10         2011-12             2013-14    2015-16          2017-18       2019-20         2021-22   2023-24f   2025-26f

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Year
                                                                                                                                                                                            OGR per hectare

 9   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker
C. Category Updates

Orchard Gate Return                                                                           ZESPRI™ GREEN KIWIFRUIT – ORCHARD GATE RETURN* 2021/22 PER HECTARE
The graph shows the spread of orchards or part-
                                                                                                                  (based on E3 November forecast)
orchards throughout the country and their expected                               $200,000
orchard gate returns based on the November forecast
for 2021/22. The orchard gate return is the average
amount received by each orchard or part orchard                                  $160,000
after Zespri and post-harvest costs are deducted. In                                            Top 25% average yield

                                                           OGR ($ per hectare)
this case, an average of $3.71 per tray for post-harvest                                         per hectare: 14,900
costs was used. The data presented here shows the
                                                                                 $120,000
distribution of orchard gate returns across KPINs (as
                                                                                                                                                        Average yield
opposed to weighted volume average). It does not
                                                                                                                                                      per hectare: 11,900
show net orchard return, which factors in average on-
orchard costs.                                                                    $80,000
                                                                                                                                                                                   Lower 25% average yield
                                                                                                                                                                                     per hectare: 7,600

                                                                                  $40,000

                                                                                                    Crop volume:               Crop volume:                 Crop volume:             Crop volume:
                                                                                                   23.3m TE / 31%             22.7m TE / 30%               18.7m TE / 25%            11.3m TE / 15%
                                                                                       $-

                                                                                             Top 25% of NZ Zespri Green                Average NZ Zespri Green                   Lower 25% NZ Zespri Green
                                                                                               growers >= $91,500/ha                    growers = $74,700/ha                       growers
C. Category Updates

ZESPRI SUNGOLD
(GOLD3) KIWIFRUIT
Situation and challenges
The forecast supply of NZ Class 1 conventional Zespri SunGold         It is important to note that planned licence release will            Points ahead
Kiwifruit is 161 million trays in 2026/27. The Outlook takes          continue to be reviewed annually and be confirmed at the end
                                                                                                                                           We think the current value positioning of SunGold Kiwifruit is
account of existing plantings coming into full production and         of each season, depending on quality and demand growth
                                                                                                                                           sustainable in the current competitive environment, provided
Zespri’s decision to extend licence SunGold Kiwifruit release         performance of SunGold Kiwifruit.
                                                                                                                                           we keep demand ahead of supply and have steady year-on-
out to 2026, announced in October 2021, with 350-700
hectares of conventional to be released annually up to 2026,          Marketing and market development                                     year volume increases of continued high-quality fruit. Our
                                                                                                                                           pricing will inevitably come under pressure if our competitive
subject to annual review.                                             We will continue to invest strongly in SunGold Kiwifruit             environment changes unfavourably.
This Five-Year Outlook sees a reduction in the licence                promotion in strategic markets, with investment declining as
                                                                      a percentage of revenue through to the end of the plan as            We are beginning to see this in the Northern Hemisphere
allocation in 2022 to 350 hectares to support Zespri’s long-
                                                                      SunGold Kiwifruit becomes established and volumes increase,          as competitors’ kiwifruit quality, such as the unauthorised
term strategy of maintaining demand ahead of supply. The
                                                                      allowing economies of scale.                                         G3 in China, continues to improve and their supply chain
indicative range of 350 hectares to 700 hectares between
                                                                                                                                           capabilities strengthen. Growers should anticipate alternative
2023-2026 provides the flexibility to support our long-term           Achieving sales rate growth in markets requires a good supply        Northern and Southern Hemisphere supply options will
strategy of maintaining demand ahead of supply to take                of early, great-tasting fruit and extended logistics capacity. The   eventually be successful and therefore returns will moderate
account of:                                                           tools we use to create demand are investment in promotion            in the longer term.
•        Significant increase in yield per hectare assumptions for    as well as sales and marketing resources, and in distribution
                                                                      expansion and a focus on taste and nutrition messaging.              Modelling suggests average OGR per hectare returns can be
         NZ Class 1 conventional SunGold Kiwifruit compared to
                                                                                                                                           sustained between $121,000 to $198,000 over the five-year
         the 2020 5 Year Plan.                                        Apart from investments into promotions to build awareness            timeframe (subject to a favourable competitive environment),
•        An early transition into production of over 1,000 hectares   of SunGold Kiwifruit and expanding our distribution                  on volumes growing to 162 million trays in 2026/27. As
         of non-producing SunGold Kiwifruit licences released         capabilities, we have also been identifying and developing           always, this Outlook is dependent on seasonal factors, such as
         prior to 2021.                                               a broad set of markets for growth through our market                 volume, taste, quality and market conditions, and on broader
                                                                      development framework to diversify our portfolio. Markets that       factors such as biosecurity and market access.
•        Time required for SunGold Kiwifruit licences to come into
                                                                      have been identified through the framework and which have
         production and to account for production of SunGold                                                                               The strength of our strategy is underwritten by the quality
                                                                      shown recent strong growth include North America, Vietnam
         Kiwifruit from organic orchards while awaiting their                                                                              performance of SunGold Kiwifruit and our plan assumes
                                                                      and South Korea.
         BioGro certification.                                                                                                             that taste and storage characteristics meet customer
                                                                                                                                           expectations and continue to drive sales rates and maintain
•        COVID-19 driven labour and supply chain challenges.
                                                                                                                                           the sales window. In consideration of evolving consumer
•        Post-harvest and cool store capacity constraints during                                                                           preferences, size 39s will be moved to non-standard supply
         peak weeks in the next few seasons.                                                                                               for the 2022-23 season.

    11   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates

Demand growth remains strong, and we believe                                                         ZESPRI™ SUNGOLD KIWIFRUIT – FRUIT & SERVICE PAYMENTS 2021/22
we can grow Class 1 conventional SunGold                                                      $480,000              (based on E3 November forecast)
Kiwifruit demand across all markets by between
                                                                                              $440,000
10-14 million trays per year. We will inevitably see
a flattening of demand at some point in the future                                            $400,000
and understanding demand growth potential is a
                                                                                              $360,000
key focus for us. At the end of each season, we will

                                                                    Payment ($ per hectare)
review quality and storage-related performance                                                $320,000

together with the growth in weekly run-rates we                                               $280,000
have achieved in that season. We will also review
                                                                                              $240,000
the potential demand in each market and in new
market or demand opportunities. Based on this                                                 $200,000
review we will confirm the licence release volume
                                                                                              $160,000
for the following year.
                                                                                              $120,000
It is strategically important to grow SunGold
Kiwifruit in the competitive context, to remain                                                $80,000

category leaders and hold shelf space and maintain                                             $40,000
customer relationships as the competition increases.
                                                                                                    $-
SunGold Kiwifruit allows us to offer value-adding
                                                                                                                                              Grower Number
opportunities to growers to expand their production
                                                                                                          (payments exclude pack, Class 2 & NSS, Supplier Accountability, Priority premium payments)
base with a proven high-returning Plant Variety
                                                                                                         Time/Ha          Taste Zespri/Ha          Kiwistart/Ha           Fruit Pmt/Ha        Loyalty/Ha
Right product to strengthen our supply base.

Zespri Global Supply View
In October, the Zespri Board also approved a             Distribution of performance across orchards
recommendation to proceed with the next step of
                                                         Based on the November forecast for the 2021/22 season, the                                    Typically, the largest portion of the Fruit and Service
commercial production of Zespri SunGold Kiwifruit
                                                         average Fruit and Service Payment, including loyalty, paid per                                Payment (excluding loyalty) is fruit payments (47 percent
in Greece (subject to approval of the business plan).
                                                         hectare is $244,957.                                                                          in 2021/22) which comprises a submit payment of $3.30
As well as helping with Zespri’s ambitions to supply
                                                                                                                                                       per tray and progress payments of $4.04 per tray. The
12 months of the year, growing in Greece will also       The average yield is 15,326 trays per hectare which is up from
                                                                                                                                                       Taste Zespri Grade contributed $5.81 per tray on average,
provide some risk mitigation if there are production     14,276 trays per hectare in 2020/21. This includes orchards
                                                                                                                                                       and taste contributed 37 percent of the overall Fruit and
issues such as frost, hail or pest damage in the other   that are not yet fully mature. The average size per tray is 27.8,
                                                                                                                                                       Service Payment (excluding loyalty).
European production areas of Italy and France.           compared with 29.7 for the previous season.

12   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates

Orchard Gate Return                                                                                                                ZESPRI™ SUNGOLD OGR PER HECTARE
The November 2021/22 forecast shows the Zespri SunGold                                 250,000
Kiwifruit average OGR per hectare at $169,303, which is
down from $177,746 in the 2020/21 season.
                                                                                       200,000
The 2021/22 season has seen multiple headwinds causing
downward pressure on Orchard Gate Returns, including

                                                                 OGR ($ per hectare)
freight cost increases associated with global port congestion                          150,000
and fuel costs, foreign exchange on the strengthening New
Zealand dollar and post-harvest cost increases associated
                                                                                       100,000
with wage increases. Offsetting this is a continued increase
in average yields as SunGold Kiwifruit orchards come into
full production and the category has also benefited from                                50,000
strong consumer demand supporting pricing.

On-orchard costs are not provided in the OGR range chart,                                    -
and we note that costs can vary quite significantly from                                         2007-08     2009-10     2011-12     2013-14    2015-16      2017-18      2019-20   2021-22    2023-24f   2025-26f
                                                                                                                                                     Year
orchard to orchard. Growers will know their costs best from
their own experience and data.                                                                                                                   OGR per hectare

For planning purposes, Zespri also announced a range of
returns from $8.00-$12.00 per Class 1 tray at an average                                         Returns are based off both historical Hort16A figures and more recent SunGold Kiwifruit returns. 2020-21 and forward
yield of slightly under 16,000 trays per hectare. These                                              reflects SunGold conventional only (with SunGold Organic moving into a separate pool in the 2020 season).
indicate that average per hectare returns can be sustained
above $120,000 over the five-year timeframe. This assumes
the continued release of additional tranches of SunGold
Kiwifruit licence, as signalled by the Zespri Board, which are
subject to annual stop/go decisions.

There are several cost factors that could increase inflation
at a rate above historic trends. This includes, among other
things, continuing increases in wage rates and potentially
costs associated with compliance.

13   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates

The graph opposite shows the spread of orchards or part                                           ZESPRI™ SUNGOLD KIWIFRUIT – ORCHARD GATE RETURN* 2021/22 PER HECTARE
orchards throughout the country, and their expected orchard                                                           (based on E3 November forecast)
gate returns based on the November forecast of 2021/22.
                                                                                       $400,000
The orchard gate return is the average amount received for
each orchard or part orchard after Zespri and post-harvest                                              Top 25% average
costs are deducted. In this case, an average of $4.70 per tray                                          yield per hectare:
                                                                                                              19,800
for post-harvest costs were used.                                                      $300,000

                                                                 OGR ($ per hectare)
The data presented here shows the distribution of orchard
gate returns across KPINs (as opposed to weighted volume                                                                                                              Average yield per
average). It does not show Net Orchard Return, which factors                                                                                                           hectare: 15,300
                                                                                       $200,000
in average on-orchard costs.
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Lower 25% average yield
                                                                                                                                                                                                       per hectare: 10,100

                                                                                       $100,000

                                                                                             $-
                                                                                                    Crop volume: 29.4m TE / 29%   Crop volume: 30.9m TE / 31%         Crop volume: 24.2m TE / 24%   Crop volume: 15.2m TE / 15%

                                                                                                      Top 25% of NZ Zespri Gold                         Average NZ Zespri Gold                       Lower 25% NZ Zespri Gold
                                                                                                       growers >= $204,200/ha                           growers = $168,700/ha                         growers
C. Category Updates

ZESPRI ORGANIC GREEN and ZESPRI ORGANIC SUNGOLD KIWIFRUIT
Situation and Challenges                                              incorporated no Organic SunGold Kiwifruit licence release in      •   Continuing to grow demand for Organic Kiwifruit in
                                                                      2022 to support Zespri’s long-term strategy of maintaining            other core markets including China to diversify markets
Organic demand remains a significant opportunity with                 demand ahead of supply. Accounting for this change in                 available for allocation.
many positive factors for the category. Globally, organic             licence release plan, the forecast supply of Class 1 Organic
sales continue to grow strongly as we see organic food sales                                                                            •   Further investment in consumer research to understand
                                                                      SunGold Kiwifruit is still expected to increase significantly
outpacing the growth of non-organic food.                                                                                                   the needs of organic consumers.
                                                                      over this planning window from 2.5 million trays supplied
This growth is underpinned by an increasing consumer desire           in 2021/22 to over 6 million trays supplied in 2026/27. The       •   Deepening our reach in specialist organic distribution
for healthy, nutritious, safe and good tasting foods that are also    Outlook takes into account greenfield developments coming             channels.
good for the environment. As the world’s population becomes           into production, alongside conversions from conventional
                                                                                                                                        •   Globally consistent brand positioning that aligns with the
more conscious of their consumption, they are increasingly            SunGold Kiwifruit coming into full organic certification, and
                                                                                                                                            values of the organic consumer, reinforcing a premium
willing to pay a premium for healthy products.                        yield improvements.
                                                                                                                                            position and driving consumer willingness to pay.
Across the global organic category, Europe and North America          Market growth will be prioritised based on distinct consumer
combined account for around 90 percent of organic food sales,         demand and the market opportunity to deliver a strong             Points ahead
with Asia markets accounting for just 7 percent of sales. The         and stable return. With strong consumer demand in Europe          Zespri Organic Green Kiwifruit
core markets for Zespri Organic Kiwifruit remain Europe, Japan        and North America, we expect to increase organic volumes
                                                                      to these markets. While Organic SunGold Kiwifruit was not         Organic Green sales have been anchored by long-term
and North America, which account for around 80 percent of
                                                                      marketed in China in 2021, it is anticipated that China will be   customers in Europe, Japan, and North America, which
Zespri Organic sales by volume.
                                                                      an important part of the market mix within the Five-Year Plan.    when combined, represent over 90 percent of total sales
We expect Class 1 Organic Green NZ supply to stabilise at                                                                               for this variety. A similar allocation strategy is expected
around 3 million trays during the five-year period based on           It remains strategically important to grow organic supply in      in coming seasons, with allocation prioritised based on
projected yields. There is continued strong demand for Organic        the competitive context. Our organic offering allows us to        distinct organic demand and the market opportunity to
Green and for the 2021/22 season, Zespri again is forecasting         be relevant to more consumers, by meeting a wider range of        deliver a strong and stable return.
strong average returns on a per tray basis. Significant year-         needs. This in turn helps Zespri remain category leaders, hold
                                                                      shelf space and maintain customer relationships.                  Zespri is modelling a range of $9.00 to $11.00 per tray for
on-year changes in yields in recent seasons challenges the
                                                                                                                                        Class 1 Organic Green (at flat volumes). However, significant
ability to hold returns at a per hectare level, and to hold and
build sustainable value in the category in the long-term. The
                                                                      Marketing and market development                                  year-on-year changes in yield in recent seasons means
                                                                                                                                        there could be significant variability in per hectare average
challenge is to return per hectare value sufficient to offset yield   Zespri’s overall drive to maximise returns for organic supply
                                                                                                                                        returns of between $62,000 and $76,000.
and size differentials compared to conventional.                      will be supported by:
On Organic SunGold Kiwifruit, due to higher than expected             •   Building capability and lifting value in Europe and North
yields and more organic conversions, this Five-Year Outlook has           America, where there is strong demand for organics.

15   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates

Distribution of performance                                                                          ZESPRI™ ORGANIC GREEN KIWIFRUIT – FRUIT & SERVICE PAYMENTS 2021/22
across orchards                                                                                                         (based on E3 February forecast)
Zespri Organic Green Kiwifruit

Based on the November 2021/22 forecast, the average                                       $140,000
Fruit and Service Payment for Zespri Organic Green
Kiwifruit, including loyalty, paid per hectare will be                                    $120,000
$88,000.

The average yield is 6,960 trays per hectare which is higher
                                                                                          $100,000
than the average 6,311 trays per hectare in 2020/21. The

                                                                Payment ($ per hectare)
average size per tray is 34.8, compared with 37.1 for the
previous season.                                                                          $80,000

The largest portion of the Fruit and Service Payment
(excluding loyalty) is fruit payments (48 percent in                                      $60,000
2021/22), which comprises a submit payment of $2.45 per
tray and progress payments of $3.57 per tray. The Taste
Zespri Grade contributed $4.58 per tray on average, and                                   $40,000
taste contributed 37 percent of the overall Fruit and Service
Payment (excluding loyalty).
                                                                                          $20,000

                                                                                                $-

                                                                                                                                             Grower Number
                                                                                                         (payments exclude pack, Class 2 & NSS, Supplier Accountability, Priority premium payments)

                                                                                                        Time/Ha          Taste Zespri/Ha         Kiwistart/Ha         Fruit Pmt/Ha        Loyalty/Ha

16   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates

Orchard Gate Return                                                                                                ZESPRI™ ORGANIC GREEN OGR PER HECTARE
Zespri Organic Green Kiwifruit

The November 2021/22 forecast shows the Zespri Organic                               $80,000

Green average OGR per hectare at $66,434, which                                      $70,000
compares to $66,453 in the 2020/21 season.

                                                               OGR ($ per hectare)
                                                                                     $60,000

The total volume of trays supplied was 3.0 million trays,                            $50,000
slightly more than the 2.8 million in 2020/21.
                                                                                     $40,000
On-orchard costs are not provided in this chart, and we                              $30,000
note that costs can vary quite significantly from orchard to
                                                                                     $20,000
orchard. Growers will know their costs best from their own
experience and data.                                                                 $10,000

There are several cost factors that could increase inflation                               -
                                                                                               2007-08   2009-10    2011-12   2013-14   2015-16          2017-18   2019-20   2021-22f   2023-24f   2025-26f
at a rate above historic trends. This includes, among other
                                                                                                                                                  Year
things, continuing increases in wage rates and potentially
                                                                                                                                           OGR per hectare
in costs associated with compliance.

17   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates

The graph to the right shows the spread of orchard or                         ZESPRI™ ORGANIC GREEN KIWIFRUIT – ORCHARD GATE RETURN* 2021/22 PER HECTARE
part orchards throughout the country and their expected                                               (based on E3 November forecast)
orchard returns based on the November forecast for the
2021/22 season.                                                                    $150,000

The orchard gate return is the average amount received for
each orchard or part orchard after Zespri and post-harvest                         $125,000
costs are deducted. In this case, an average of $3.37 per                                                 Top 25% average
tray for post-harvest costs was used.                                                                  yield per hectare: 9,400
                                                                                   $100,000

                                                             OGR ($ per hectare)
The data presented here shows the distribution of orchard
                                                                                                                                                           Average yield per
gate returns across KPINs (as opposed to weighted volume                                                                                                    hectare: 7,000
average). It does not show Net Orchard Return, which                                $75,000                                                                                                     Lower 25%
factors in average on-orchard costs.                                                                                                                                                           average yield
                                                                                                                                                                                             per hectare: 4,700
                                                                                   $50,000

                                                                                   $25,000

                                                                                         $-
                                                                                              Crop volume: 0.9m TE / 30%   Crop volume: 0.7m TE / 24%     Crop volume: 0.8m TE / 26%    Crop volume: 0.6m TE / 20%

                                                                                            Top 25% of NZ Zespri Green                    Average NZ Zespri Green                        Lower 25% NZ Zespri Green
                                                                                          Organic growers >= $83,200/ha                 Organic growers = $69,600/ha                   Organic growers
C. Category Updates

Points Ahead
Zespri Organic SunGold Kiwifruit

We continue to see strong demand signals for Organic          A focus will be on building capability and lifting value in    Zespri is modelling a range of $10.00 to $14.00 per tray
SunGold Kiwifruit, and we will experience strong supply       Europe and USA, where there is strong organic demand.          for Class 1 Organic SunGold Kiwifruit. Modelling suggests
growth in this variety over the planning window, including    Volumes to Japan will also continue to grow, reliant on        average OGR per hectare returns can be sustained between
with no additional licence being released in 2022.            meeting market access requirements, although will decrease     $112,000 to $176,000 over the five-year timeframe (subject
                                                              as a proportion of market mix.                                 to market environment and demand outlook), on volumes
We believe we can grow Class 1 Organic SunGold Kiwifruit at
                                                                                                                             growing to 6 million trays in 2026/27. As always, this
around 600,000 TE per year on average over the five-year      There is an opportunity to build volumes into high value
                                                                                                                             Outlook is dependent on seasonal factors, such as volume,
planning window, with growth prioritised based on distinct    markets including Korea and Taiwan, which is also reliant
                                                                                                                             taste and market conditions, and on broader factors such as
organic demand and the market opportunity to deliver a        on meeting market access requirements around scale.
                                                                                                                             biosecurity and market access.
strong and stable return.                                     Exports to China are planned to restart in 2022 with volumes
                                                              increasing over time, however this is not expected to
                                                              significantly alter market allocation proportions.

19   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates

Distribution of performance                                                                   ZESPRI™ ORGANIC SUNGOLD KIWIFRUIT – FRUIT & SERVICE PAYMENTS 2021/22
across orchards                                                                                                   (based on E3 November forecast)
Zespri Organic SunGold Kiwifruit
                                                                                          $280,000
Based on the November 2021/22 forecast, the average
Fruit and Service Payment for Zespri Organic SunGold
Kiwifruit, including loyalty, paid per hectare is $189,254.                               $240,000
The average yield is 11,422 trays per hectare which is higher
than the average 10,324 trays per hectare in 2020/21. The
                                                                                          $200,000
average size per tray is 28.1, compared with 30.1 for the

                                                                Payment ($ per hectare)
previous season.
                                                                                          $160,000
The largest portion of the Fruit and Service Payment
(excluding loyalty) is Taste Zespri Grade (46 percent
in 2021/22), contributing 7.51 per tray. Fruit payments                                   $120,000
contributed 42 percent in 2021/22, which comprises a
submit payment of $3.30 per tray and progress payments
of $3.53 per tray.                                                                         $80,000

                                                                                           $40,000

                                                                                                $-

                                                                                                                                           Grower Number
                                                                                                           (payments exclude pack, Class 2 & NSS, Supplier Accountability, Priority premium)

                                                                                                       Time/Ha        Taste Zespri/Ha         Kiwistart/Ha         Fruit Pmt/Ha         Loyalty/Ha

20   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates

Orchard Gate Return                                                                                          ZESPRITM ORGANICZESPRI
                                                                                                                             SUNGOLD      KIWIFRUIT
                                                                                                                                   TM Organic GOLD OGR OGR   PER HECTARE
                                                                                                                                                       PER HECTARE
Zespri Organic SunGold Kiwifruit                                                      200,000

The November 2021/22 forecast shows the Zespri Organic                                180,000

SunGold Kiwifruit average OGR per hectare at $139,646,                                160,000

which compares to $158,599 in the 2020/21 season.                                     140,000

                                                                OGR ($ per hectare)
The total volume of trays supplied was 2.5 million trays,                             120,000

more than the 1.45m in 2020/21.                                                       100,000

                                                                                       80,000
On-orchard costs are not provided in this chart, and we
                                                                                       60,000
note that costs can vary quite significantly from orchard to
orchard. Growers will know their costs best from their own                             40,000

experience and data.                                                                   20,000
                                                                                            -
There are several cost factors that could increase inflation                                       2020-21            2021-22f            2022-23f             2023-24f           2024-25f           2025-26f
at a rate above historic trends. This includes, among other
                                                                                                                                                        Year
things, continuing increases in wage rates and potentially in
costs associated with compliance.                                                                                                                    OGR per hectare

                                                                                                Returns are based off Organic SunGold Kiwifruit returns. Prior to 2020/21, Organic SunGold Kiwifruit was pooled with
                                                                                                              conventional SunGold Kiwifruit, but has moved into a separate pool in the 2020 season.

21   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates

Orchard Gate Return                                                                                 ZESPRI™ ORGANIC SUNGOLD KIWIFRUIT – ORCHARD GATE RETURN*
Zespri Organic SunGold Kiwifruit                                                                          2021/22 PER HECTARE (based on E3 November forecast)
The 2021/22 forecast has been impacted by fruit quality
costs in market, shipping disruptions causing fruit loss, and                                      Top 25% average yield
market mix impact with no sales in China in 2021.                                                   per hectare: 15,800
The graph shows the spread of orchard or part orchards
                                                                                      $200,000
throughout the country and their expected orchard returns
based on the November forecast for the 2021/22 season.

                                                                OGR ($ per hectare)
                                                                                                                                                              Average yield per
The orchard gate return is the average amount received for                                                                                                     hectare: 11,400
each orchard or part orchard after Zespri and post-harvest
costs are deducted. In this case, an average of $4.36 per                                                                                                                                    Lower 25% average
                                                                                                                                                                                           yield per hectare: 5,800
tray for post-harvest costs was used.
                                                                                      $100,000
The data presented here shows the distribution of orchard
gate returns across KPINs (as opposed to weighted volume
average). It does not show Net Orchard Return, which
factors in average on-orchard costs.

                                                                                            $-
                                                                                                 Crop volume: 0.8m TE / 33%   Crop volume: 0.8m TE / 34%   Crop volume: 0.6m TE / 23%      Crop volume: 0.3m TE / 11%

                                                                                                    Top 25% of NZ Zespri Organic              Average NZ Zespri Organic                  Lower 25% of NZ Zespri Organic
                                                                                                  SunGold growers >= $168,700/ha            SunGold growers = $138,500/ha               SunGold growers
C. Category Updates

ZESPRI RUBYRED KIWIFRUIT (RED 19)
Situation and Challenges
Commercialised in December 2019 and initially marketed as        Findings from the analysis of customer relationship
Zespri Red during the sales trials, the red fruit will now be    management data in Singapore, Japan and China further
marketed under the trademark Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit.          indicated that over its relatively short selling window,
The new name reinforces the premium nature of the fruit          Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit was able to attract new
and will provide greater protection from a trademark             customers to the kiwifruit category, with one in five
perspective. The renaming of Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit           purchases in 2019 and one in three in 2020 being made by
also aligns with 2022 marking the first year that we’ll          shoppers who had not purchased kiwifruit within the last
produce commercial volumes of the fruit.                         12 months.
We’re confident the marketing of Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit       The same data set shows that the sales of Zespri RubyRed™
will attract more consumers to try this variety and grow our     Kiwifruit over indexes with shoppers that are relatively
industry’s share of the global fruit bowl. In total, we expect   younger than that of the average kiwifruit shopper. In all
to supply around 300,000 trays across New Zealand,               three markets, Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit shows a high
Singapore, Japan and Greater China in 2022.                      propensity to be bought with, or in addition to, Zespri’s
                                                                 core range, with very little substitution.
Consumer Market Research conducted by Kantar since
2019 has shown evidence that Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit
could potentially attract customers of other premium and
exotic fruits, with participants indicating these fruits were
the most likely to be substituted for Zespri RubyRed™
Kiwifruit. The study also suggests that there is minimal
reduction to Zespri’s existing portfolio and possibly a halo
effect on SunGold Kiwifruit sales post the Zespri RubyRed™
Kiwifruit sales window.

23   Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
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