5 Year Outlook A - Food Ticker
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Zespri 5 Year Outlook A. B. C. D. Introduction Industry CATEGORY BEYOND Context UPDATES 2026 december 2021
a. Introduction Introduction Purpose of this communication This Outlook provides an overview of Zespri’s Five-Year on the supply chain, greater shipping congestion and consumers, helps to place us ahead of the competition Plan, which is updated and reviewed by the Zespri Board significant challenges in securing labour. More information on and to command a premium price. annually, with this edition covering the period from these risks can be found on page 5. • SunGold Kiwifruit consumer demand continues to 2021/22 to 2026/27. Ahead of the challenges facing the 2022 season, the rise, and this is reflected in strong distributor and The publication provides growers, industry representatives industry has been planning its approach to smooth out retailer support. and shareholders with a summary of how Zespri’s medium- the flow of fruit to maximise industry picking and packing • SunGold Kiwifruit will drive future volume and revenue term strategy will be implemented by category and sets capacity. This includes a rebalance of the trade-off between growth, having surpassed Green in its share of the total out some of the key challenges and opportunities ahead. the taste incentive and Kiwistart rates, and operational Zespri portfolio in 2020 and again in 2021. It relies on several assumptions and as expected, the planning on pack mix, supported by a shipping schedule further out we look, the less certain we become of these designed to present our fruit to market for a strong early • Confidence in demand during the Zespri Global Supply assumptions, with the plan becoming more directional. start to the season. (ZGS) season remains high with strong demand signals globally. ZGS is completing a strategy refresh in order Our intent with this Outlook is to provide information for While refinements have been made to improve harvest to provide 12-month supply in support of the New stakeholders to help inform their business decisions, whether flow for SunGold Kiwifruit, it is important to note taste Zealand supply season. The proposed increase in volume that is investing, divesting or changing their variety mix. remains a key driver of the value and sales generated in our demonstrates the growth phase we are in as we continue markets around the world. Growers will be aware that we’re Key points from this Outlook undertaking a comprehensive Taste Zespri review ahead to build supply to meet demand – across both Northern Hemisphere and New Zealand production locations. of the 2023 season, underpinned by the findings of the Zespri’s mission is to create sustainable long-term value for consumer sensory, grower enablement, and supply chain • A balanced portfolio will remain important, with demand kiwifruit growers by offering consumers the world’s leading research projects. for Organic a significant opportunity, as long as the portfolio of branded kiwifruit for all 12 months of the year. balance between supply and demand is maintained. While this Outlook acknowledges the challenges we’re Ensuring we deliver value to growers by doing the best for seeing in our current operating environment, what hasn’t • Meeting demand requires continued innovation and our consumers has guided us for the past decade, and will changed are the following general points: investment by Zespri, growers, post-harvest operators, continue to guide us for years to come. • Zespri remains incredibly confident in the market outlook, customers and partners across the supply chain. The This Outlook reflects the continued lift in global demand for with global demand for our fruit continuing to strengthen, implications of the strong growth in supply we are Zespri Kiwifruit, which has been accelerated by investment in along with the value we are able to capture for growers, experiencing adds pressure right across the industry. sales and marketing to build our brand, as well as increasing if we maintain our approach of building market demand Planning is underway to identify the most significant demand from consumers for fresh, healthy and great-tasting ahead of supply. opportunities to make adjustments that will provide products. a smoother flow of fruit next season and to mitigate • Supply volumes are increasing with growers achieving the impact of the looming labour shortage, as well as While we’re seeing growing interest in the kiwifruit category, strong yields per hectare, and with a continued focus significant shipping disruptions and handling issues the Five-Year Plan does factor in the immediate headwinds the on delivering high quality fruit to our markets. A focus throughout the supply and distribution base. industry is facing, including: the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on taste and quality, especially storage, accompanied by our brand purpose and level of recognition among 2 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
a. Introduction • Supply costs are forecast to continue to increase for • New Zealand supply of Class 1 conventional SunGold Recent orchard conversions has meant there is sufficient all varieties across all aspects of growing, harvesting, Kiwifruit increases from nearly 98 million trays in 2021/22 supply to meet projected growth in market demand. Being packing and cool-chain. This is driven by global shipping to 161 million trays in 2026/27. This growth is being a relatively small pool, it is sensitive to supply and demand constraints, a labour shortage, costs associated with driven by the ongoing programme of licence release as dynamics. Potential future licence allocation will be compliance and the need for strong investment in post- signalled below. reviewed annually. harvest in New Zealand to build extra capacity for growth in crop volume. • Zespri remains committed to releasing conventional • There is expected to be 9,650 hectares of both SunGold SunGold Kiwifruit hectares and our latest demand Kiwifruit and Organic SunGold Kiwifruit planted in New Overview of demand and supply forecast supports the release of 350 hectares in 2022. Zealand by 2023/24. When fully mature by around 2026, This is less than the 700 hectares released in previous this will deliver around 160 million trays at current yield • This Five-Year Outlook sees an increase in total New years, with the reduction driven by a need to maintain estimates. Zespri also currently has 3,610 planted SunGold Zealand Class 1 supply from 178 million trays in 2021/22 sustainable returns for growers and ensure supply does Kiwifruit hectares in the ground in our offshore growing to 238 million trays in 2026/27. This is equivalent to not exceed projected future market demand given locations (as of 31 March 2021). 33 percent volume growth and includes the estimated improving grower yields. Onshore supply challenges commercial volumes of Zespri RubyRed Kiwifruit • New Zealand supply of Class 1 conventional Green is including labour have also been factored in. The production established by 2025. forecast to reduce from around 74 million trays in 2021/22 indication for SunGold Kiwifruit licence release during to around 59 million trays in 2026/27 through conversion • Across the same period we are forecasting per tray 2023-2026 is in the range of 350-700 hectares per to other varieties and removal of orchards, which should Orchard Gate Return ranges of: annum, subject to annual review. This is to meet the year- result in increased per tray value for the category. Green on-year constrained target demand growth volume of 10 • Zespri SunGold Kiwifruit: $8.00 to $12.00 value is sensitive to supply and demand dynamics given to 14 million trays per annum. It is important to note the • Zespri Organic SunGold Kiwifruit: $10.00 to $14.00 the competition from non Zespri Green. Note this estimate programme is subject to an annual review that considers does not factor in the potential loss of hydrogen cyanamide • Zespri Green Kiwifruit: $6.50 to $8.50 any potential new risks, as well as the level of market which would have a significant impact on green growers. (depending on declining volumes) demand. The analysis of risk would include both demand- • Zespri Organic Green Kiwifruit: $9.00 to $11.00 side and supply-side factors. • On the supply side, our strategy is about maximising quality to markets through an efficient supply chain which passes • Zespri RubyRed Kiwifruit: $10.50 to $13.00 • Zespri will release 350 hectares of Zespri RubyRed market signals back to growers and partners across our Kiwifruit licence in 2022 via a Closed Tender Bid. The • Of the 2026/27 total volume of Class 1 supply, our plan supply base. indication for Zespri RubyRed licence release in 2023 is forecasts New Zealand supply of nearly 238 million up to 500 hectares, subject to annual review. • On the demand side our market development framework trays and non-New Zealand supply of around 43 million and strategy are about optimising product choices and trays. However, non-New Zealand supply is currently • The Five-Year Plan forecasts a significant rise in New service levels for our retail and distribution customers. This undergoing a strategy refresh to consider how its further Zealand supply of Class 1 Organic SunGold Kiwifruit from is delivered through a robust, sustainable, supply chain expansion can support the New Zealand supply business. around 2.5 million trays supplied in 2021/22 to over 6 that reliably delivers safe, healthy, traceable, high-quality, million trays supplied in 2026/27. There will be no release branded kiwifruit, supported by world-class sales and of Organic SunGold Kiwifruit licence in 2022. marketing to meets our consumer needs. 3 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
B. Industry Context Industry Context Opportunities The macro-level trends for the next five years include of consumers. Demand is strong and growing, with more • Enhancing product sustainability: A programme of several positive factors in terms of consumer and people wanting to buy our fruit because they know it work is underway to explore opportunities to provide consumption trends that support the marketing of a tastes great, it is healthy, and it is grown in a way which the world with carbon zero kiwifruit as part of our premium, healthy product. Zespri has identified the is good for the environment and our communities. goal to lead the kiwifruit industry’s transition to a following macro-level trends: low-carbon future. • Strong brands perform well in times of crisis with • Health will be at the core of lifestyle decisions, with consumers turning to brands they know and trust. • Greater digital transformation through the Horizon fruit being the most consumed product at snacking On top of brand familiarity, consumers are also seeking programme which will enable Zespri to be more occasions, especially around mid-morning. assurance about the safety of products. effective and efficient in how we optimise supply in markets and how we deliver our product to consumers • An increasing focus on sustainability, with consumers Within this context, Zespri has identified a number of areas and return value to growers. and retailers increasingly seeking products which to drive demand over the next five years, uplifting value and align with their own values – including considering offsetting risks, including: • Value-adding and more sustainable packaging formats their impact on the environment and climate change. allowing better targeting, and placements in-store, • A globally-consistent and meaningful brand identity Regulators around the world are also increasingly increasing conversion and uplifting value. Immediate with fewer campaigns, bigger impact and better results demanding more sustainable practice, particularly with off the shelf solutions are a work in progress to leverage unlocking the interest of new consumers and resonating regards to plastics and packaging. consumers’ willingness to pay for value and more with our loyal ones. sustainable pack types, particularly in markets like • Demand for optimised living, which will see a rise in • Connecting with consumers who support brands where Europe where the need is higher. products (fresh cut or processed format versus whole looking after people and the environment is a core fresh fruit) and services (i.e. online shopping and • A Ready to Eat (RTE) initiative with select customers, part of their business. Zespri is continuing its efforts automation) that are convenient for consumers. building on experiences in established RTE markets to meet our sustainability commitments, including the like Japan. • Changing retailing landscape for fruit, with discounters need to take action to transition to a climate-resistant and e-commerce growing a bigger base. Determining future, lift employment standards and make progress on • Sales excellence and capability build being developed the success model in these fast-growing channels is sustainable packaging. and implemented to improve joint business planning, important. distributor management and in-store execution. • ZGS: Our global supply strategy is critical to attracting • Positive category growth globally, coupled with new customers to our product and realising benefits • Kiwifruit Breeding Centre established in partnership significant category headroom, offers plenty of for New Zealand growers through the advantages of with Plant & Food Research to speed up the opportunity for Zespri to continue to pique the interest 12-month supply. development of new varieties to create more value for growers and attract new consumers to the category. 4 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
B. Industry Context Challenges and Risks While our future is positive, growers should consider the unauthorised G3 plantings and while enforcement • Brand reputation and sustainability: For example, risks of growing and exporting kiwifruit from New Zealand is challenging and complex, we have in place a addressing consumer concerns around plastics, within a context of there being both risk and opportunity framework to monitor our key channels and accounts. non-compostable and non-recyclable material in our and configure their businesses accordingly. Zespri is continuing to work to understand the nature packaging as well as addressing the environmental of the unauthorised G3 threat through a research and challenges we contribute to and are affected by, such as Some factors growers and investors should be aware development programme assessing local fruit quality water quality and climate change. We have implemented of include: and industry practices. our industry sustainability framework and set a number • COVID-19: While the kiwifruit industry has robust health of targets to support each of our priorities. They cover • Biosecurity: Unwanted pests and disease could and food safety protocols to ensure only the highest- the following five areas: impact crop quality and volume, as well New Zealand’s quality, safe kiwifruit gets to market, COVID-19 continues reputation and market access. For example, the high risk 1. Our packaging will be 100 percent recyclable, to impact the global supply chain. The long-term impact and potential consequence of Brown Marmorated Stink reusable or compostable by 2025. of the pandemic remains uncertain, though we expect Bug has made it a priority for biosecurity readiness and significant ongoing disruption in the short-term. 2. By 2025 our industry will more effectively monitor response for both the industry biosecurity organisation, nutrient inputs and losses as well as our impact on • Labour: As kiwifruit production increases, so will the Kiwifruit Vine Health (KVH), and the Ministry for Primary water, protecting and enhancing water quality. demand for seasonal labour to pick, pack and prune. Industries, and the industry remains alert to potential The labour shortage for 2022 is estimated to be 6,500 fruit fly incursions. 3. We will become carbon positive by 2035. people at the peak, compared to 4,500 in 2021. The • Loss of market access: While Zespri is working hard 4. We will be an industry where people want to work industry and NZKGI continues to create a positive to broaden our market base, the loss of access to any because they know it’s a great place to work. working environment for all workers, and has responded major market during a season could result in an over- to the challenge with labour attraction campaigns, 5. And we will do even more to help people lead supply of fruit relative to demand. Market access can training programmes, and by enforcing compliance, healthier lives. be impacted by several factors, either indirect or direct. increasing pay rates, investing in people and automation For example, phytosanitary, regulatory, food safety, • Climate change: Zespri’s climate change strategy sets and establishing long-term pathways for permanent COVID-19, biosecurity, compliance changes and broader out how we will work with the kiwifruit industry to help employment. global trade relations and geopolitics. Zespri is working lead the transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient • Unauthorised G3 in China: The impact of unauthorised to mitigate this risk by maintaining a broad demand future. Preparing for the impacts of climate change G3 plantings in China and the risk of further growth base and faster development of large volume markets, is important to us and we’re investing in research on remains a significant risk. The harvest window is in direct close monitoring of our environment, strong government climate adaptation strategies. This includes future competition with New Zealand fruit in the last quarter relations and adherence to robust supply protocols. This growing systems and the development of new varieties of the year and with non New Zealand-grown ZGS fruit is combined with a good risk management framework of kiwifruit that are more resilient to drought and pests. in our counter-season. Zespri continues to monitor and risk mitigation strategies for various scenarios. 5 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
B. Industry Context In 2021 we commissioned research to understand our • Supply deficiencies in volume and quality: Deficiencies • Shipping: Ongoing pressure on the global shipping climate risks in all our growing regions, and published can enable competitors to fill the gaps resulting network continues to be challenging, although we’re in our Climate Change Risks & Opportunities report, from Zespri’s strong demand creation driven by a relatively strong position in Europe. We will be looking aligning with the best-practice standard, The Taskforce consumer pull. to procure ‘buffer’ shipping to allow for the increase in for Climate-Related Financial Disclosure (TCFD). We also the 2022/23 season crop, and we’ll be exploring the • Speed of business capability development: Continued measured our core emissions at Zespri and published use of Advanced Movement in markets to alleviate investment will be required to support the growth these in our 2020/21 Annual Report. the impacts. including in people, processes and systems. • Hydrogen cyanamide: At the time of publication, the • Post-harvest capacity: Growing post-harvest and cool • Horizon: Horizon is an ambitious investment to replace Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) was consulting store capacity is crucial to managing growing volumes ageing internal systems and processes and Zespri is on its recommendation to phase out the use of to meet consumer demand. Zespri continues to work continuing to take a phased approach to ensure that hydrogen cyanamide over five years. Losing this product with post-harvest providers to analyse and identify we manage programme delivery well. Each tranche of which is used for budbreak enhancement would have a opportunities to manage peak season volumes in the programme requires a detailed business case and significant impact on the industry and we’re committed packhouse and cool storage facilities. will be funded within the limits of our current funding to making the strongest case to the EPA outlining how model. Tranche one addresses foundational systems and • Non-compliance: Consumers, regulators and the industry can keep using the product safely – for processes within Zespri’s finance and core supply chain, communities are increasingly concerned about people and the environment. Work underway includes with solutions due to be delivered in August 2022. The compliance issues and brands being good members the submission process itself; understanding any initiation of the second tranche will include engagement of their communities, resulting in a higher level of immediate restrictions on the use of the product; past with the industry on solutions across the extended scrutiny on industries like ours. Any issues like worker research and trials into alternative products and on- supply chain, quality management, sales, and grower exploitation, water quality, or poor spray management orchard management techniques to reduce the impact enablement, with delivery from late 2023. could attract negative attention, impact on our of any loss of hydrogen cyanamide; and continuing our reputation, our social licence and our ability to operate strategic exploration of new cultivars that may offer • Increasing on-orchard costs: Inflationary pressure, without greater regulatory constraints, and to attract the greater resilience to warmer winter climates in the ongoing legislative changes including to the minimum value enabled by being a premium brand. Zespri will future. wage and workplace regulations legislation, other continue to work with the industry to enforce standards compliance costs including in the environmental • Increasing competition: The competitive environment and take action against anybody failing to comply so regulatory space as these costs are expected to increase. continues to become more challenging as competitors that we can protect the value we have created together try to leverage the category demand and value space • Global economic risks: On top of the ongoing uncertainty as an industry. created by Zespri. This includes more volume of created by COVID-19, we are seeing increasing global • Exchange rates: Industry returns have benefitted in competitor red and yellow varieties, especially during debt levels and market and debt bubbles in some recent years from favourable currency rates, supported the Northern Hemisphere supply window. More branded countries, raising the risks of economic volatility and by Zespri’s hedging policy. However, growers should be kiwifruit products are being seen in the market. We are financial crises. aware that there is potential for negative impact due to continuing to monitor change in this space. exchange rate movements in future years. 6 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates Category Updates GREEN VOLUME VS RETURNS ZESPRI GREEN (HAYWARD) 100,000,000 Situation and challenges 90,000,000 $90,000 75,490 There is continued demand for Class 1 conventional Zespri Green, although large year-on-year fluctuations in supply 80,000,000 $80,000 do challenge the ability to hold and build sustainable value in the category in the long-term. As volumes decline, 70,000,000 $70,000 we expect Orchard Gate Returns of $6.50 - $8.50 TE or $71,000-$88,000 at the per hectare level, based on 60,000,000 $60,000 $ OGR per hectare average yields. The supply versus demand dynamic is more sensitive for Green with the level of competition and 50,000,000 $50,000 supply volume in any given year impacting returns, with 7.51 TE lower volumes delivering higher returns. 6.71 40,000,000 29,561 $40,000 6.01 As well as a stabilisation in volumes, to be able to build 5.13 6.67 6.34 demand ahead of supply, other key drivers for maintaining 30,000,000 5.23 5.45 $30,000 and building the value of Green are: maintaining our 4.62 4.36 4.21 competitive advantage through delivering better quality, 20,000,000 3.70 3.80 $20,000 bigger size and higher taste fruit than our competition; continuing to work with customers to understand how 10,000,000 $10,000 providing ready-to-eat fruit can drive Green run rates; and, maintaining our focus on developing sales channels 0 - and marketing the health benefits of this healthy product. 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22f We continue to build our understanding of the extent to Volume TE $ per TE $ OGR per Ha which consumers substitute SunGold Kiwifruit for Green. Currently the data suggests there is a relatively small substitution effect depending on the price differential. It most part, of an inferior quality and sold at a cheaper price grafting to new varieties and others making the decision to appears SunGold Kiwifruit takes more market share from point. This creates challenges in attracting new consumers pull out of Green altogether, whether for economic reasons or other fruits than from green kiwifruit. There is demand to Zespri’s premium Green. alternate land use drivers. for Green and sufficient supply is required to maintain On the supply side, Green has seen high volume volatility over This can be expected to have the effect of reducing a balanced portfolio for our customers as well as our recent seasons as illustrated in the chart above. Green hectares and supporting Green per tray and per category leadership. Most of the competitive kiwifruit hectare returns. grown outside of New Zealand is still green and for the However, we forecast that supply of Green will decline, particularly over the later years of the next five years, due to 7 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates Marketing and market development Optimising the taste and size attributes of the product • In the long-term, Zespri is focused on deepening Through this planning window we aim to maintain average remain the most important aspects of differentiating Zespri penetration into the value chain and enhancing per hectare returns of $71,000-$88,000, subject to Green from competitor greens around the world and retail relationships. seasonal factors. We note that very low yield years, of less maintaining our price positioning. Zespri will also continue than 9,000 trays per hectare and other risks noted in this to invest and focus on providing customers and consumers Points ahead document, would challenge this outlook. with ready-to-retail and ready-to-eat kiwifruit. Hayward continues to be the predominant green cultivar Zespri Global Supply view Building strong demand requires several elements: globally, although we are aware of new greens with Northern Hemisphere Green volumes are procured under stronger consumer attributes, but not necessarily strong • Investing in market and sales channel development to a trading model, therefore available volumes and price are performance right across the value chain. We expect that build a broadened distribution base. highly dependent on the fluctuations in supply in any in the longer term someone may be successful in breeding given season. • Optimising product quality, taste and availability for a better green that will take significant market share early and late supply. from Hayward should they be able to get the necessary While in the past we have sourced Hayward primarily from consumer, storage and yield characteristics optimised. We Italy, we are now sourcing an increasing amount of fruit • Strengthening retail relationships, creating awareness of are continuing our strategic exploration of new cultivars from Greece. Procurement of Hayward from Europe has Zespri’s quality attributes. that may offer greater resilience to warmer winter climates increased since 2018 to 36,000 tonnes of which over 30 • Investing in brand marketing to create consumer in the future, with a focus on speeding up this process in percent is now procured from Greece. demand for our premium proposition. light of the reassessment of hydrogen cyanamide and the As well as working with Italian growers on tackling pest impact losing this product would have on the industry, and • Focusing strongly on health communication to recruit and disease issues, Zespri has been working closely with in particular Green growers in warmer areas. more regular eaters of kiwifruit to the category, Greek suppliers to fill this gap, with fruit quality improving particularly around the digestive health properties of From a Zespri perspective, our high-level approach is to: significantly. We look forward to these Greek volumes Green Kiwifruit. increasing further in the coming years. 1. Work systematically to optimise the quality of Zespri • Offering 12-month supply to customers to maintain Green kiwifruit and to grow demand for Green 12 Zespri’s position, where possible. months of the year at sustainable long-term value. • In terms of market allocation, Europe will continue to 2. To continue the long-term work of breeding and take the largest share of Green through the next five commercialising a new green that will unlock further years. However, as volumes decline, market mix will also growth in the green category. add value as higher returning markets such as Japan and Korea are anticipated to make up a higher proportion of the global allocation. 8 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates Distribution of performance ZESPRI™ GREEN KIWIFRUIT – FRUIT & SERVICE PAYMENTS 2021/22 across orchards $220,000 (based on E3 November forecast) Based on the November 2021/22 season forecast, the $200,000 average Fruit and Service Payment, including loyalty, paid $180,000 per hectare is $120,400. The average yield is 11,908 trays $160,000 per hectare which is up from 10,214 trays per hectare in Payment ($ per hectare) $140,000 2020/21. The average size per tray is 32.6, which is larger than the previous season result of 33.8. The largest portion $120,000 of the Fruit and Service Payment (excluding loyalty) is $100,000 fruit payments (46 percent), which comprises a submit $80,000 payment of $2.44 per tray and progress payments of $2.11 per tray. The Taste Zespri Grade contributed $3.17 per tray $60,000 on average, and taste contributed 32 percent of the overall $40,000 Fruit and Service Payment (excluding loyalty). Lorem ipsum $20,000 Orchard Gate Return $- Grower Number The November 2021/22 forecast shows the Zespri Green (payments exclude pack, Class 2 & NSS, Supplier Accountability, Priority premium) average OGR per hectare at $75,490. Time/Ha Taste Zespri/Ha Kiwistart/Ha Fruit Pmt/Ha Loyalty/Ha The projected OGR range per hectare, based on Zespri’s Five-Year Plan is between $71,000-$88,000. On-orchard costs are not provided in this chart, and we ZESPRI™ GREEN OGR PER HECTARE $100,000 note that costs can vary quite significantly from orchard to $90,000 orchard. Growers will know their costs best from their own $80,000 experience and data. $70,000 OGR ($ per hectare) We note that there are several cost factors outside of $60,000 Zespri’s control that could increase at a rate above historic $50,000 trends. This includes, among other things, continuing $40,000 increases in wage rates, freight costs and foreign $30,000 exchange fluctuations and potentially in costs associated $20,000 $10,000 with compliance. - 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22 2023-24f 2025-26f Year OGR per hectare 9 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates Orchard Gate Return ZESPRI™ GREEN KIWIFRUIT – ORCHARD GATE RETURN* 2021/22 PER HECTARE The graph shows the spread of orchards or part- (based on E3 November forecast) orchards throughout the country and their expected $200,000 orchard gate returns based on the November forecast for 2021/22. The orchard gate return is the average amount received by each orchard or part orchard $160,000 after Zespri and post-harvest costs are deducted. In Top 25% average yield OGR ($ per hectare) this case, an average of $3.71 per tray for post-harvest per hectare: 14,900 costs was used. The data presented here shows the $120,000 distribution of orchard gate returns across KPINs (as Average yield opposed to weighted volume average). It does not per hectare: 11,900 show net orchard return, which factors in average on- orchard costs. $80,000 Lower 25% average yield per hectare: 7,600 $40,000 Crop volume: Crop volume: Crop volume: Crop volume: 23.3m TE / 31% 22.7m TE / 30% 18.7m TE / 25% 11.3m TE / 15% $- Top 25% of NZ Zespri Green Average NZ Zespri Green Lower 25% NZ Zespri Green growers >= $91,500/ha growers = $74,700/ha growers
C. Category Updates ZESPRI SUNGOLD (GOLD3) KIWIFRUIT Situation and challenges The forecast supply of NZ Class 1 conventional Zespri SunGold It is important to note that planned licence release will Points ahead Kiwifruit is 161 million trays in 2026/27. The Outlook takes continue to be reviewed annually and be confirmed at the end We think the current value positioning of SunGold Kiwifruit is account of existing plantings coming into full production and of each season, depending on quality and demand growth sustainable in the current competitive environment, provided Zespri’s decision to extend licence SunGold Kiwifruit release performance of SunGold Kiwifruit. we keep demand ahead of supply and have steady year-on- out to 2026, announced in October 2021, with 350-700 hectares of conventional to be released annually up to 2026, Marketing and market development year volume increases of continued high-quality fruit. Our pricing will inevitably come under pressure if our competitive subject to annual review. We will continue to invest strongly in SunGold Kiwifruit environment changes unfavourably. This Five-Year Outlook sees a reduction in the licence promotion in strategic markets, with investment declining as a percentage of revenue through to the end of the plan as We are beginning to see this in the Northern Hemisphere allocation in 2022 to 350 hectares to support Zespri’s long- SunGold Kiwifruit becomes established and volumes increase, as competitors’ kiwifruit quality, such as the unauthorised term strategy of maintaining demand ahead of supply. The allowing economies of scale. G3 in China, continues to improve and their supply chain indicative range of 350 hectares to 700 hectares between capabilities strengthen. Growers should anticipate alternative 2023-2026 provides the flexibility to support our long-term Achieving sales rate growth in markets requires a good supply Northern and Southern Hemisphere supply options will strategy of maintaining demand ahead of supply to take of early, great-tasting fruit and extended logistics capacity. The eventually be successful and therefore returns will moderate account of: tools we use to create demand are investment in promotion in the longer term. • Significant increase in yield per hectare assumptions for as well as sales and marketing resources, and in distribution expansion and a focus on taste and nutrition messaging. Modelling suggests average OGR per hectare returns can be NZ Class 1 conventional SunGold Kiwifruit compared to sustained between $121,000 to $198,000 over the five-year the 2020 5 Year Plan. Apart from investments into promotions to build awareness timeframe (subject to a favourable competitive environment), • An early transition into production of over 1,000 hectares of SunGold Kiwifruit and expanding our distribution on volumes growing to 162 million trays in 2026/27. As of non-producing SunGold Kiwifruit licences released capabilities, we have also been identifying and developing always, this Outlook is dependent on seasonal factors, such as prior to 2021. a broad set of markets for growth through our market volume, taste, quality and market conditions, and on broader development framework to diversify our portfolio. Markets that factors such as biosecurity and market access. • Time required for SunGold Kiwifruit licences to come into have been identified through the framework and which have production and to account for production of SunGold The strength of our strategy is underwritten by the quality shown recent strong growth include North America, Vietnam Kiwifruit from organic orchards while awaiting their performance of SunGold Kiwifruit and our plan assumes and South Korea. BioGro certification. that taste and storage characteristics meet customer expectations and continue to drive sales rates and maintain • COVID-19 driven labour and supply chain challenges. the sales window. In consideration of evolving consumer • Post-harvest and cool store capacity constraints during preferences, size 39s will be moved to non-standard supply peak weeks in the next few seasons. for the 2022-23 season. 11 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates Demand growth remains strong, and we believe ZESPRI™ SUNGOLD KIWIFRUIT – FRUIT & SERVICE PAYMENTS 2021/22 we can grow Class 1 conventional SunGold $480,000 (based on E3 November forecast) Kiwifruit demand across all markets by between $440,000 10-14 million trays per year. We will inevitably see a flattening of demand at some point in the future $400,000 and understanding demand growth potential is a $360,000 key focus for us. At the end of each season, we will Payment ($ per hectare) review quality and storage-related performance $320,000 together with the growth in weekly run-rates we $280,000 have achieved in that season. We will also review $240,000 the potential demand in each market and in new market or demand opportunities. Based on this $200,000 review we will confirm the licence release volume $160,000 for the following year. $120,000 It is strategically important to grow SunGold Kiwifruit in the competitive context, to remain $80,000 category leaders and hold shelf space and maintain $40,000 customer relationships as the competition increases. $- SunGold Kiwifruit allows us to offer value-adding Grower Number opportunities to growers to expand their production (payments exclude pack, Class 2 & NSS, Supplier Accountability, Priority premium payments) base with a proven high-returning Plant Variety Time/Ha Taste Zespri/Ha Kiwistart/Ha Fruit Pmt/Ha Loyalty/Ha Right product to strengthen our supply base. Zespri Global Supply View In October, the Zespri Board also approved a Distribution of performance across orchards recommendation to proceed with the next step of Based on the November forecast for the 2021/22 season, the Typically, the largest portion of the Fruit and Service commercial production of Zespri SunGold Kiwifruit average Fruit and Service Payment, including loyalty, paid per Payment (excluding loyalty) is fruit payments (47 percent in Greece (subject to approval of the business plan). hectare is $244,957. in 2021/22) which comprises a submit payment of $3.30 As well as helping with Zespri’s ambitions to supply per tray and progress payments of $4.04 per tray. The 12 months of the year, growing in Greece will also The average yield is 15,326 trays per hectare which is up from Taste Zespri Grade contributed $5.81 per tray on average, provide some risk mitigation if there are production 14,276 trays per hectare in 2020/21. This includes orchards and taste contributed 37 percent of the overall Fruit and issues such as frost, hail or pest damage in the other that are not yet fully mature. The average size per tray is 27.8, Service Payment (excluding loyalty). European production areas of Italy and France. compared with 29.7 for the previous season. 12 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates Orchard Gate Return ZESPRI™ SUNGOLD OGR PER HECTARE The November 2021/22 forecast shows the Zespri SunGold 250,000 Kiwifruit average OGR per hectare at $169,303, which is down from $177,746 in the 2020/21 season. 200,000 The 2021/22 season has seen multiple headwinds causing downward pressure on Orchard Gate Returns, including OGR ($ per hectare) freight cost increases associated with global port congestion 150,000 and fuel costs, foreign exchange on the strengthening New Zealand dollar and post-harvest cost increases associated 100,000 with wage increases. Offsetting this is a continued increase in average yields as SunGold Kiwifruit orchards come into full production and the category has also benefited from 50,000 strong consumer demand supporting pricing. On-orchard costs are not provided in the OGR range chart, - and we note that costs can vary quite significantly from 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22 2023-24f 2025-26f Year orchard to orchard. Growers will know their costs best from their own experience and data. OGR per hectare For planning purposes, Zespri also announced a range of returns from $8.00-$12.00 per Class 1 tray at an average Returns are based off both historical Hort16A figures and more recent SunGold Kiwifruit returns. 2020-21 and forward yield of slightly under 16,000 trays per hectare. These reflects SunGold conventional only (with SunGold Organic moving into a separate pool in the 2020 season). indicate that average per hectare returns can be sustained above $120,000 over the five-year timeframe. This assumes the continued release of additional tranches of SunGold Kiwifruit licence, as signalled by the Zespri Board, which are subject to annual stop/go decisions. There are several cost factors that could increase inflation at a rate above historic trends. This includes, among other things, continuing increases in wage rates and potentially costs associated with compliance. 13 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates The graph opposite shows the spread of orchards or part ZESPRI™ SUNGOLD KIWIFRUIT – ORCHARD GATE RETURN* 2021/22 PER HECTARE orchards throughout the country, and their expected orchard (based on E3 November forecast) gate returns based on the November forecast of 2021/22. $400,000 The orchard gate return is the average amount received for each orchard or part orchard after Zespri and post-harvest Top 25% average costs are deducted. In this case, an average of $4.70 per tray yield per hectare: 19,800 for post-harvest costs were used. $300,000 OGR ($ per hectare) The data presented here shows the distribution of orchard gate returns across KPINs (as opposed to weighted volume Average yield per average). It does not show Net Orchard Return, which factors hectare: 15,300 $200,000 in average on-orchard costs. Lower 25% average yield per hectare: 10,100 $100,000 $- Crop volume: 29.4m TE / 29% Crop volume: 30.9m TE / 31% Crop volume: 24.2m TE / 24% Crop volume: 15.2m TE / 15% Top 25% of NZ Zespri Gold Average NZ Zespri Gold Lower 25% NZ Zespri Gold growers >= $204,200/ha growers = $168,700/ha growers
C. Category Updates ZESPRI ORGANIC GREEN and ZESPRI ORGANIC SUNGOLD KIWIFRUIT Situation and Challenges incorporated no Organic SunGold Kiwifruit licence release in • Continuing to grow demand for Organic Kiwifruit in 2022 to support Zespri’s long-term strategy of maintaining other core markets including China to diversify markets Organic demand remains a significant opportunity with demand ahead of supply. Accounting for this change in available for allocation. many positive factors for the category. Globally, organic licence release plan, the forecast supply of Class 1 Organic sales continue to grow strongly as we see organic food sales • Further investment in consumer research to understand SunGold Kiwifruit is still expected to increase significantly outpacing the growth of non-organic food. the needs of organic consumers. over this planning window from 2.5 million trays supplied This growth is underpinned by an increasing consumer desire in 2021/22 to over 6 million trays supplied in 2026/27. The • Deepening our reach in specialist organic distribution for healthy, nutritious, safe and good tasting foods that are also Outlook takes into account greenfield developments coming channels. good for the environment. As the world’s population becomes into production, alongside conversions from conventional • Globally consistent brand positioning that aligns with the more conscious of their consumption, they are increasingly SunGold Kiwifruit coming into full organic certification, and values of the organic consumer, reinforcing a premium willing to pay a premium for healthy products. yield improvements. position and driving consumer willingness to pay. Across the global organic category, Europe and North America Market growth will be prioritised based on distinct consumer combined account for around 90 percent of organic food sales, demand and the market opportunity to deliver a strong Points ahead with Asia markets accounting for just 7 percent of sales. The and stable return. With strong consumer demand in Europe Zespri Organic Green Kiwifruit core markets for Zespri Organic Kiwifruit remain Europe, Japan and North America, we expect to increase organic volumes to these markets. While Organic SunGold Kiwifruit was not Organic Green sales have been anchored by long-term and North America, which account for around 80 percent of marketed in China in 2021, it is anticipated that China will be customers in Europe, Japan, and North America, which Zespri Organic sales by volume. an important part of the market mix within the Five-Year Plan. when combined, represent over 90 percent of total sales We expect Class 1 Organic Green NZ supply to stabilise at for this variety. A similar allocation strategy is expected around 3 million trays during the five-year period based on It remains strategically important to grow organic supply in in coming seasons, with allocation prioritised based on projected yields. There is continued strong demand for Organic the competitive context. Our organic offering allows us to distinct organic demand and the market opportunity to Green and for the 2021/22 season, Zespri again is forecasting be relevant to more consumers, by meeting a wider range of deliver a strong and stable return. strong average returns on a per tray basis. Significant year- needs. This in turn helps Zespri remain category leaders, hold shelf space and maintain customer relationships. Zespri is modelling a range of $9.00 to $11.00 per tray for on-year changes in yields in recent seasons challenges the Class 1 Organic Green (at flat volumes). However, significant ability to hold returns at a per hectare level, and to hold and build sustainable value in the category in the long-term. The Marketing and market development year-on-year changes in yield in recent seasons means there could be significant variability in per hectare average challenge is to return per hectare value sufficient to offset yield Zespri’s overall drive to maximise returns for organic supply returns of between $62,000 and $76,000. and size differentials compared to conventional. will be supported by: On Organic SunGold Kiwifruit, due to higher than expected • Building capability and lifting value in Europe and North yields and more organic conversions, this Five-Year Outlook has America, where there is strong demand for organics. 15 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates Distribution of performance ZESPRI™ ORGANIC GREEN KIWIFRUIT – FRUIT & SERVICE PAYMENTS 2021/22 across orchards (based on E3 February forecast) Zespri Organic Green Kiwifruit Based on the November 2021/22 forecast, the average $140,000 Fruit and Service Payment for Zespri Organic Green Kiwifruit, including loyalty, paid per hectare will be $120,000 $88,000. The average yield is 6,960 trays per hectare which is higher $100,000 than the average 6,311 trays per hectare in 2020/21. The Payment ($ per hectare) average size per tray is 34.8, compared with 37.1 for the previous season. $80,000 The largest portion of the Fruit and Service Payment (excluding loyalty) is fruit payments (48 percent in $60,000 2021/22), which comprises a submit payment of $2.45 per tray and progress payments of $3.57 per tray. The Taste Zespri Grade contributed $4.58 per tray on average, and $40,000 taste contributed 37 percent of the overall Fruit and Service Payment (excluding loyalty). $20,000 $- Grower Number (payments exclude pack, Class 2 & NSS, Supplier Accountability, Priority premium payments) Time/Ha Taste Zespri/Ha Kiwistart/Ha Fruit Pmt/Ha Loyalty/Ha 16 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates Orchard Gate Return ZESPRI™ ORGANIC GREEN OGR PER HECTARE Zespri Organic Green Kiwifruit The November 2021/22 forecast shows the Zespri Organic $80,000 Green average OGR per hectare at $66,434, which $70,000 compares to $66,453 in the 2020/21 season. OGR ($ per hectare) $60,000 The total volume of trays supplied was 3.0 million trays, $50,000 slightly more than the 2.8 million in 2020/21. $40,000 On-orchard costs are not provided in this chart, and we $30,000 note that costs can vary quite significantly from orchard to $20,000 orchard. Growers will know their costs best from their own experience and data. $10,000 There are several cost factors that could increase inflation - 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22f 2023-24f 2025-26f at a rate above historic trends. This includes, among other Year things, continuing increases in wage rates and potentially OGR per hectare in costs associated with compliance. 17 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates The graph to the right shows the spread of orchard or ZESPRI™ ORGANIC GREEN KIWIFRUIT – ORCHARD GATE RETURN* 2021/22 PER HECTARE part orchards throughout the country and their expected (based on E3 November forecast) orchard returns based on the November forecast for the 2021/22 season. $150,000 The orchard gate return is the average amount received for each orchard or part orchard after Zespri and post-harvest $125,000 costs are deducted. In this case, an average of $3.37 per Top 25% average tray for post-harvest costs was used. yield per hectare: 9,400 $100,000 OGR ($ per hectare) The data presented here shows the distribution of orchard Average yield per gate returns across KPINs (as opposed to weighted volume hectare: 7,000 average). It does not show Net Orchard Return, which $75,000 Lower 25% factors in average on-orchard costs. average yield per hectare: 4,700 $50,000 $25,000 $- Crop volume: 0.9m TE / 30% Crop volume: 0.7m TE / 24% Crop volume: 0.8m TE / 26% Crop volume: 0.6m TE / 20% Top 25% of NZ Zespri Green Average NZ Zespri Green Lower 25% NZ Zespri Green Organic growers >= $83,200/ha Organic growers = $69,600/ha Organic growers
C. Category Updates Points Ahead Zespri Organic SunGold Kiwifruit We continue to see strong demand signals for Organic A focus will be on building capability and lifting value in Zespri is modelling a range of $10.00 to $14.00 per tray SunGold Kiwifruit, and we will experience strong supply Europe and USA, where there is strong organic demand. for Class 1 Organic SunGold Kiwifruit. Modelling suggests growth in this variety over the planning window, including Volumes to Japan will also continue to grow, reliant on average OGR per hectare returns can be sustained between with no additional licence being released in 2022. meeting market access requirements, although will decrease $112,000 to $176,000 over the five-year timeframe (subject as a proportion of market mix. to market environment and demand outlook), on volumes We believe we can grow Class 1 Organic SunGold Kiwifruit at growing to 6 million trays in 2026/27. As always, this around 600,000 TE per year on average over the five-year There is an opportunity to build volumes into high value Outlook is dependent on seasonal factors, such as volume, planning window, with growth prioritised based on distinct markets including Korea and Taiwan, which is also reliant taste and market conditions, and on broader factors such as organic demand and the market opportunity to deliver a on meeting market access requirements around scale. biosecurity and market access. strong and stable return. Exports to China are planned to restart in 2022 with volumes increasing over time, however this is not expected to significantly alter market allocation proportions. 19 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates Distribution of performance ZESPRI™ ORGANIC SUNGOLD KIWIFRUIT – FRUIT & SERVICE PAYMENTS 2021/22 across orchards (based on E3 November forecast) Zespri Organic SunGold Kiwifruit $280,000 Based on the November 2021/22 forecast, the average Fruit and Service Payment for Zespri Organic SunGold Kiwifruit, including loyalty, paid per hectare is $189,254. $240,000 The average yield is 11,422 trays per hectare which is higher than the average 10,324 trays per hectare in 2020/21. The $200,000 average size per tray is 28.1, compared with 30.1 for the Payment ($ per hectare) previous season. $160,000 The largest portion of the Fruit and Service Payment (excluding loyalty) is Taste Zespri Grade (46 percent in 2021/22), contributing 7.51 per tray. Fruit payments $120,000 contributed 42 percent in 2021/22, which comprises a submit payment of $3.30 per tray and progress payments of $3.53 per tray. $80,000 $40,000 $- Grower Number (payments exclude pack, Class 2 & NSS, Supplier Accountability, Priority premium) Time/Ha Taste Zespri/Ha Kiwistart/Ha Fruit Pmt/Ha Loyalty/Ha 20 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates Orchard Gate Return ZESPRITM ORGANICZESPRI SUNGOLD KIWIFRUIT TM Organic GOLD OGR OGR PER HECTARE PER HECTARE Zespri Organic SunGold Kiwifruit 200,000 The November 2021/22 forecast shows the Zespri Organic 180,000 SunGold Kiwifruit average OGR per hectare at $139,646, 160,000 which compares to $158,599 in the 2020/21 season. 140,000 OGR ($ per hectare) The total volume of trays supplied was 2.5 million trays, 120,000 more than the 1.45m in 2020/21. 100,000 80,000 On-orchard costs are not provided in this chart, and we 60,000 note that costs can vary quite significantly from orchard to orchard. Growers will know their costs best from their own 40,000 experience and data. 20,000 - There are several cost factors that could increase inflation 2020-21 2021-22f 2022-23f 2023-24f 2024-25f 2025-26f at a rate above historic trends. This includes, among other Year things, continuing increases in wage rates and potentially in costs associated with compliance. OGR per hectare Returns are based off Organic SunGold Kiwifruit returns. Prior to 2020/21, Organic SunGold Kiwifruit was pooled with conventional SunGold Kiwifruit, but has moved into a separate pool in the 2020 season. 21 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
C. Category Updates Orchard Gate Return ZESPRI™ ORGANIC SUNGOLD KIWIFRUIT – ORCHARD GATE RETURN* Zespri Organic SunGold Kiwifruit 2021/22 PER HECTARE (based on E3 November forecast) The 2021/22 forecast has been impacted by fruit quality costs in market, shipping disruptions causing fruit loss, and Top 25% average yield market mix impact with no sales in China in 2021. per hectare: 15,800 The graph shows the spread of orchard or part orchards $200,000 throughout the country and their expected orchard returns based on the November forecast for the 2021/22 season. OGR ($ per hectare) Average yield per The orchard gate return is the average amount received for hectare: 11,400 each orchard or part orchard after Zespri and post-harvest costs are deducted. In this case, an average of $4.36 per Lower 25% average yield per hectare: 5,800 tray for post-harvest costs was used. $100,000 The data presented here shows the distribution of orchard gate returns across KPINs (as opposed to weighted volume average). It does not show Net Orchard Return, which factors in average on-orchard costs. $- Crop volume: 0.8m TE / 33% Crop volume: 0.8m TE / 34% Crop volume: 0.6m TE / 23% Crop volume: 0.3m TE / 11% Top 25% of NZ Zespri Organic Average NZ Zespri Organic Lower 25% of NZ Zespri Organic SunGold growers >= $168,700/ha SunGold growers = $138,500/ha SunGold growers
C. Category Updates ZESPRI RUBYRED KIWIFRUIT (RED 19) Situation and Challenges Commercialised in December 2019 and initially marketed as Findings from the analysis of customer relationship Zespri Red during the sales trials, the red fruit will now be management data in Singapore, Japan and China further marketed under the trademark Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit. indicated that over its relatively short selling window, The new name reinforces the premium nature of the fruit Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit was able to attract new and will provide greater protection from a trademark customers to the kiwifruit category, with one in five perspective. The renaming of Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit purchases in 2019 and one in three in 2020 being made by also aligns with 2022 marking the first year that we’ll shoppers who had not purchased kiwifruit within the last produce commercial volumes of the fruit. 12 months. We’re confident the marketing of Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit The same data set shows that the sales of Zespri RubyRed™ will attract more consumers to try this variety and grow our Kiwifruit over indexes with shoppers that are relatively industry’s share of the global fruit bowl. In total, we expect younger than that of the average kiwifruit shopper. In all to supply around 300,000 trays across New Zealand, three markets, Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit shows a high Singapore, Japan and Greater China in 2022. propensity to be bought with, or in addition to, Zespri’s core range, with very little substitution. Consumer Market Research conducted by Kantar since 2019 has shown evidence that Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit could potentially attract customers of other premium and exotic fruits, with participants indicating these fruits were the most likely to be substituted for Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit. The study also suggests that there is minimal reduction to Zespri’s existing portfolio and possibly a halo effect on SunGold Kiwifruit sales post the Zespri RubyRed™ Kiwifruit sales window. 23 Zespri 5 Year Outlook | 2021/22
You can also read