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VOL. 101 | NO. 6 Science’s
JUNE 2020 First Responders
The U.S. Needs
Sustainable River Policy
Pandemic Lockdown
at Sea
A
BALANCING
ACT Scientists are dedicated to understanding
the complexities of the Earth’s carbon cycle—
and how our actions can throw it off.
MATLAB SPEAKS
MACHINE
LEARNING
With MATLAB® you can use clustering,
regression, classification, and deep
learning to build predictive models
and put them into production.
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@2020 The MathWorks, Inc.
FROM THE EDITOR
Editor in Chief
Heather Goss, AGU, Washington, D.C., USA; Eos_EIC@agu.org
A Whole World View AGU Staff
Vice President, Communications, Amy Storey
Marketing, and Media Relations
T
he livability of our world depends on a healthy circula- Editorial
Manager, News and Features Editor Caryl-Sue Micalizio
tory system for carbon. Knowing how carbon transitions
Science Editor Timothy Oleson
among air, land, and sea is critical to understanding the News and Features Writer Kimberly M. S. Cartier
balance that keeps Earth habitable—not to mention, under- News and Features Writer Jenessa Duncombe
standing how our actions can throw off that balance.
Production & Design
In our June issue, several science teams report on work in
Manager, Production and Operations Faith A. Ishii
this area. In “The Future of the Carbon Cycle” (p. 34), Aleya Senior Production Specialist Melissa A. Tribur
Kaushik and colleagues discuss the complexities of gaining a Assistant Director, Design & Branding Beth Bagley
Senior Graphic Designer Valerie Friedman
whole-world view of that cycle. Achieving this holistic view
Graphic Designer J. Henry Pereira
challenges our understanding of how ecosystems respond to
climate change and how those responses will alter Earth’s car- Marketing
bon budget in the future. In particular, these predictions are Director, Marketing, Branding & Advertising Jessica Latterman
Assistant Director, Marketing & Advertising Liz Zipse
complicated by the numerous feedbacks involved. Kaushik
et al. look to the observation networks—both on the ground and orbiting overhead—that have Advertising
evolved over the past several decades to help scientists address these critical questions. Display Advertising Dan Nicholas
On p. 22, Donato Giovannelli and colleagues consider the carbon cycle at subduction zones, dnicholas@wiley.com
Recruitment Advertising Kristin McCarthy
specifically, at the Costa Rica convergent margin. This multidisciplinary team was part of a kmccarthy@wiley.com
project under the Deep Carbon Observatory called Biology Meets Subduction, which was aimed
at answering several questions about the influence of biological activity at the convergent Science Advisers
margin and, ultimately, determining whether the team could use that information to improve Geomagnetism, Paleomagnetism, Julie Bowles
and Electromagnetism
deep-carbon budget estimates for the area. Like all the best research, their work is yielding Space Physics and Aeronomy Christina M. S. Cohen
promising data and raising many more intriguing questions. Cryosphere Ellyn Enderlin
In this month’s news, we report on a fascinating experiment at a geothermal facility in Ice- Study of the Earth’s Deep Interior Edward J. Garnero
Geodesy Brian C. Gunter
land. Carbon storage trials are showing that 90% of carbon dioxide injected into subsurface History of Geophysics Kristine C. Harper
basalt rock is transformed into minerals in just 2 years, whereas mineralization in standard Planetary Sciences Sarah M. Hörst
carbon storage methods can take thousands of years. Turn to p. 6 to read more about the poten- Natural Hazards Michelle Hummel
Volcanology, Geochemistry, and Petrology Emily R. Johnson
tial of mineral carbonation as a means of large-scale carbon sequestration in Iceland and else- Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences Christine Kirchhoff
where and whether it’s up to the task of making a measurable impact on climate change. Seismology Keith D. Koper
On the other side of the carbon cycle, a recent study shows that mountain streams, though Tectonophysics Jian Lin
Near-Surface Geophysics Juan Lorenzo
comprising only about 5% of the surface area of rivers and streams globally, might account for
Earth and Space Science Informatics Kirk Martinez
10% to 30% of the total flux of carbon dioxide from those waterways (p. 14). Scientists have Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Figen Mekik
also recently discovered that the Arctic Ocean may not be as important a carbon sink as pre- Mineral and Rock Physics Sébastien Merkel
Ocean Sciences Jerry L. Miller
viously thought (p. 11).
Global Environmental Change Hansi Singh
Finally, we’re pleased to share an article from the editor in chief of one of AGU’s newest Education Eric M. Riggs
journals, GeoHealth, on p. 17. Gabriel Filippelli writes in “Geohealth: Science’s First Respond- Hydrology Kerstin Stahl
ers” about how geoscientists, health professionals, and regional leaders are growing into a Tectonophysics Carol A. Stein
Atmospheric Sciences Mika Tosca
new community that is combining and harnessing its skills to address disasters. Looking back Nonlinear Geophysics Adrian Tuck
at the Deepwater Horizon disaster and the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, Filippelli exam- Biogeosciences Merritt Turetsky
ines lessons learned from those events and how we should be applying them to the current Hydrology Adam S. Ward
Diversity and Inclusion Lisa White
global pandemic. Earth and Planetary Surface Processes Andrew C. Wilcox
Our June issue examines the balance of this planet’s systems and, in so many ways, how Atmospheric and Space Electricity Yoav Yair
anthropogenic forcing can step on that balance. How can we assess the natural movements of GeoHealth Ben Zaitchik
carbon while we keep pumping carbon into the air? How can we prepare to live safely in a world
where disasters, even relatively predictable ones, can still be sudden and overwhelming? The ©2020. AGU. All Rights Reserved. Material in this issue may be photocopied by
individual scientists for research or classroom use. Permission is also granted
scientists featured in this issue are committed to answering those questions and, ultimately, to use short quotes, figures, and tables for publication in scientific books and
journals. For permission for any other uses, contact the AGU Publications Office.
to making our world more knowable so we can better prepare ourselves for change.
Eos (ISSN 0096-3941) is published monthly by AGU, 2000 Florida Ave., NW,
Washington, DC 20009, USA. Periodical Class postage paid at Washington, D.C.,
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Member Service Center: 8:00 a.m.–6:00 p.m. Eastern time; Tel: +1-202-462-6900;
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Submit your article proposal or suggest a news story to Eos at bit.ly/Eos-proposal.
Heather Goss, Editor in Chief Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect official positions
of AGU unless expressly stated.
SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 1
CONTENT
28
22 34
Features
22 Microbial Influences 28 Implications of a
on Subduction Zone Supervolcano’s Seismicity
Carbon Cycling By Finnigan Illsley-Kemp et al.
By Donato Giovannelli et al. As the magma system grows under Taupo volcano
in New Zealand, scientists are working with the
Connecting biology to large-scale geological processes
community to prepare warning systems and plans for
can tell us about volatile cycling at subduction zones.
future eruptions.
On the Cover 34 The Future of the
Trees in the lush rainforest of Costa Rica and elsewhere play an
important role in the carbon cycle. Credit: Anna Omelchenko/
Carbon Cycle
Alamy Stock Photo in a Changing Climate
By Aleya Kaushik et al.
Understanding the complex feedbacks that affect
Earth’s ability to absorb and release carbon require
a whole world view.
2 Eos // June 2020
CONTENT
5 17
Columns
From the Editor AGU News
1 A Whole World View 41 AGU’s Online Learning Exchange Shares Education
Resources
News
4 How Financial Markets Can Grow More Climate Savvy
Research Spotlight
5 Dust from Colliding Asteroids Masqueraded as a Planet 42 The Stuff That Psyche Is Made Of | Improving Climate
6 Basalts Turn Carbon into Stone for Permanent Storage Predictions over Decades
7 Nonscientists Struggle to Separate Climate Fact 43 Reforestation as a Local Cooling Mechanism | A More
from Fiction Accurate Global River Map
9 The Art of Volcanic Ash Modeling 10 Years After 44 Big Data Help Paint a New Picture of Trace Element
Eyjafjallajökull Cycling | Chinese Swamp Core Reveals 47,000 Years of
10 Predicting Fast Moving Flash Droughts Monsoon History
11 The Arctic Ocean May Not Be a Reliable Carbon Sink
12 Human Composting Is a Greener Way to Go Editors’ Highlights
13 Trapped at Sea During a Pandemic Lockdown 45 Quantifying Aerosol Effects on Climate Using Ship
14 Mountain Streams Exhale More Than Their Share of CO2 Track Clouds | Toward Forecasting Crop Productivity
16 Geodetic Data Pinpoint Earthquake-Prone Regions and Carbon Flux Anomalies
of the Himalayas
Positions Available
Opinion 46 Current job openings in the Earth and space sciences
17 Geohealth: Science’s First Responders
19 The United States Needs Sustainable River Policy Now Postcards from the Field
49 Scientists aboard the R/V Marcus Langseth work together
to prepare equipment for its next deployment to image
the magmatic structure beneath Axial Seamount.
AmericanGeophysicalUnion @AGU_Eos company/american-geophysical-union AGUvideos americangeophysicalunion americangeophysicalunion
SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 3
NEWS
How Financial Markets Can Grow More Climate Savvy
E
nergy investors looking to steel them-
selves against t opsy-turvy market
transitions could try something new:
factoring extreme weather risks into their
investments.
At present, financial markets may be failing
to account for the physical risks of extreme
weather from climate change. That’s a prob-
lem, according to Paul Griffin, an accounting
professor at the University of California,
Davis, because overpricing could lead to an
extreme correction to the market down the
road.
On the other hand, if markets do adjust and
societies reduce emissions, “a couple of gen-
erations from now, we might have a more
stable planet,” Griffin said. “This is some-
thing that will benefit generations beyond
ourselves.”
Although researchers are just starting
to understand possible links between mar-
ket pressures of the coronavirus crisis and
the climate crisis, Griffin said that lessons
learned may help with climate-related tran-
sitions. Crude oil prices plunged below zero
in April, and the pandemic has revealed to arid air and wildfires, causing power dis- could work to fill this gap, and others could
weaknesses in global supply chains. ruptions. work to make data digestible for investors and
But unlike the market’s “forward-looking” Despite these vulnerabilities, investors and asset managers.
response to the pandemic, the costs associ- asset managers have been “conspicuously Recently, Norway’s Government Pension
ated with climate change “are far more dis- slow to connect physical climate risk to com- Fund Global divested part of its fossil fuel
tant,” and the markets have a “tough time” pany market valuations,” Griffin wrote. holdings, and the Saudi Aramco corporation
grappling with them, Griffin said. In the long Company stock prices do not reflect these began offering some public shares. “For
term, addressing climate risks “is much more risks, and it’s unclear whether insurance will investors and asset managers, the Norwegian
important than what we’re going through provide coverage. Future litigation could also and Saudi actions are a further sign of climate
now,” he added. prove costly. risk underpricing,” Griffin wrote in his com-
“This is an issue that needs to be addressed, ment in the journal Nature Energy (bit.ly/
Invisible Risks so the markets correct themselves in a rea- energy-finance).
Energy firms are at particular physical risk sonable or orderly basis,” Griffin said. If they Jesse Keenan, an associate professor of real
due to climate change, yet they’ve been slow don’t, a correction all at once “can be very estate at Tulane University, said that the shift
to price these risks. horrific for markets.” could help markets bear the risks of future
Many energy firms have infrastructure in The Great Recession is the “best analogy” transitions as well. “Advancing more disclo-
vulnerable areas. The U.S. Gulf Coast, where to the present situation, according to Griffin. sure on the physical risks (e.g., generation
numerous oil refineries are located, is facing A sudden correction to the market from facilities, transmission equipment, etc.) could
rising seas and more extreme storms. South- unpriced risk in subprime mortgages kicked be catalytic for forcing greater analysis of the
ern states are also seeing skyrocketing tem- off the financial crisis in 2007, which in turn transition risks, which are closely intercon-
peratures, which threaten worker safety. Cal- triggered the Great Recession that rippled nected,” noted Keenan.
ifornia and other western states are exposed around the world. Factoring climate change into market deci-
sions is difficult, said Griffin, because “you’ve
Making a Shift got these massive costs that are far more dis-
To avoid a large market correction from tant that the markets have a really hard time
A market adjustment and extreme weather impacts, investors need to grappling with.” Moving forward will take
pin down the exact risk from future events. both political will and a responsive judicial
reducing emissions are Extreme weather risks pose a unique chal- system, he added.
things “that will benefit lenge for climate risk modelers because some
investors normalize extreme weather impacts
generations beyond over time. Some emerging companies, like By Jenessa Duncombe (@jrdscience), Staff
ourselves.” Jupiter Intelligence and Four Twenty Seven, Writer
4 Eos // June 2020
NEWS
Dust from Colliding Asteroids Masqueraded as a Planet
P
lanets don’t normally triple in size, but haut b obtained from 2004 to 2014, including The dust probably derived from a collision
that’s what Fomalhaut b seemingly unpublished data from 2013 and 2014. of asteroids, astronomers have proposed. And
did. the Fomalhaut system doesn’t lack for aster-
Originally heralded as an extrasolar planet, Expanding and Going Sideways oids; it’s known to host a dusty debris disk,
this object probably isn’t a planet after all, Gáspár and Rieke found that Fomalhaut b an amalgam of dust and small rocky bodies
researchers have now suggested. By analyzing resembled a point source—as expected for a akin to our own solar system’s asteroid belt
unpublished Hubble Space Telescope data, distant planet—in observations from 2004 and Kuiper belt.
scientists have shown that it’s more likely an and 2006. But in the next data set, collected Gáspár and Rieke modeled asteroid impacts
expanding cloud of dust created by a cata- in 2010, it had ballooned in size and now and their resulting dust clouds. They calcu-
strophic collision between large asteroids. looked like a cloud. Between 2004 and 2014, lated that two asteroids roughly 200 kilome-
Given that such impacts should be exceed- Fomalhaut b expanded by roughly 7,500,000 ters in diameter smashing together could
ingly rare—occurring only once every few kilometers, or about 5% of the E arth–Sun dis- have produced Fomalhaut b. On the basis of
hundred thousand years, the team calcu- tance, per year, the researchers calculated. the estimated density of asteroids near
lated—this discovery was downright lucky. “That’s pretty quick,” said Gáspár. Fomalhaut’s debris disk, such an event would
Fomalhaut b’s position in the sky was also statistically occur every few hundred thou-
An Oddball odd, the scientists found. Rather than swing- sand years, the team estimated. These results
In 2008, astronomers announced the discov- ing around its host star in a planetlike ellip- were published in the Proceedings of the
ery of Fomalhaut b orbiting a star roughly tical orbit, “its trajectory is leading radially National Academy of Sciences of the United States
25 light-years away. It joined a rarefied club: away from the central star,” said Gáspár. of America (bit.ly/Fomalhaut).
The object was one of a handful of exoplanets
that had been directly imaged (as opposed to Dust to the Rescue
being detected using the transit method or These decidedly unplanetlike characteristics
the radial velocity method, for instance). But led Gáspár and Rieke back to an idea proposed
Because the Fomalhaut
Fomalhaut b had some distinctly unplanetlike earlier by other researchers: Fomalhaut b is
characteristics: It didn’t emit thermal radia- not a planet but, instead, an expanding cloud system is about 400 million
tion, for starters, and it was growing signifi-
cantly in size. “Fomalhaut b has always been
of dust. This seemingly unorthodox hypoth-
esis is consistent with its bizarre properties:
years old, it’s exceedingly
enigmatic,” said András Gáspár, an astrono- A dust cloud would reflect lots of optical light unlikely that we’d be
mer at Steward Observatory at the University from its host star but wouldn’t produce much
of Arizona. of its own thermal radiation, an expanding
witness to such an event.
To better pin down the nature of Fomal- cloud would explain Fomalhaut b’s three-
haut b, Gáspár and George Rieke, also an fold increase in size, and a dust cloud would
astronomer at Steward Observatory, mined appear to move radially away from a star
archival data from the Hubble Space Tele- because the smallest and lightest dust parti- Too Rare?
scope. They collected observations of Fomal- cles are literally blown outward by starlight. “A collision between objects is a fairly natural
explanation,” said Grant Kennedy, an astron-
omer at the University of Warwick in the
United Kingdom not involved in the research.
“It’s pretty hard to create a puff of dust…in
any other way.”
But the likelihood of such a collision might
be far lower than what Gáspár and Rieke esti-
mate, Kennedy cautioned. “Previous calcula-
tions have suggested that the frequency of
collisions between objects that are about 100
kilometers in size is very, very low, fewer than
one in the age of the system.” Because the
Fomalhaut system is about 400 million years
Opposite: Unsplash/Micheile Henderson
old, it’s exceedingly unlikely that we’d be wit-
ness to such an event, said Kennedy. “People
will no doubt revisit this analysis, just like
they did for the original Fomalhaut b discov-
ery.”
By Katherine Kornei (@KatherineKornei),
Catastrophic collisions between asteroids create copious amounts of dust. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech Science Writer
SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 5
NEWS
Basalts Turn Carbon into Stone for Permanent Storage
subsurface basalts bypasses the slower and
less secure stages of conventional carbon
storage.
Geothermal power stations, which sit atop
basalt-rich volcano deposits, were a natural
site for the new method’s first field tests.
Since 2012, the CarbFix project has partnered
with Iceland’s Hellisheiði Geothermal Power
Station to capture the CO2 released when
drawing up hot water from the ground. The
team dissolves the CO2 in wastewater and
injects it hundreds of meters deep into the
basaltic ground. The risk of induced seismic-
ity is reduced by carefully surveying injection
sites and adjusting injection rates as needed.
Snæbjörnsdóttir and her team have been
examining the injection sites using fluid sam-
pling and tracers to quantify how well the
mineral carbonization process works. They
found that over 90% of the injected CO2 had
been converted into minerals within 2 years
of injection.
“We have demonstrated a very rapid min-
Iceland’s Hellisheiði Geothermal Power Station, above, is the third-largest geothermal power station in the world eralization of the injected gases,” she said.
and the site of ongoing mineral carbonization experiments. Credit: Árni Sæberg “But also, the way that we inject is that we
dissolve the CO2 in water prior to or during
injection.…The CO2-charged fluid is heavier
than the groundwater in the formation where
I “By mineralizing, we are
n carbon storage experiments tied to geo- we are injecting, so it has the tendency to sink
thermal power plants in Iceland, 90% of rather than to rise up. This increased storage
injected carbon dioxide (CO2) transformed permanently getting rid of security.”
into minerals in just 2 years. Standard carbon the CO2. We can walk away The team published these results in Nature
storage methods can take thousands of years Reviews Earth and Environment (bit .ly/CO2
to do the same. from it.” -stone).
“We are basing our methods on this natu-
ral process, which is part of the big carbon
cycle where all carbon on Earth derives from
and ends up in rocks,” said one of the lead eventually seeps into small rock pores, dis-
researchers, Sandra Snæbjörnsdóttir. She is solves in groundwater, and reacts with the
the head of CO2 mineral storage at the CarbFix rock to become carbonate minerals, trapping
project. the carbon for good.
“By mineralizing, we are permanently get- However, this method alone can’t store a
ting rid of the CO2. We can walk away from it. large enough volume of carbon or mineralize
We don’t have to monitor it for the next it fast enough to meet the carbon storage
decades or so. The permanent storage is the demand. It can take thousands of years from
key here,” she said. start to finish for all of the carbon to miner-
alize, and at any point, a shift in the rocks can
Fast and Forever cause some carbon to escape.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Climate researchers have long recognized
Change reported that to keep global warming that highly reactive basaltic rocks could be a
below 1.5°C, humanity must not only drasti- solution to the carbon storage problem. In
cally cut CO 2 emissions but also actively addition to being common around the world,
remove CO2 from the atmosphere and keep it basalts contain high concentrations of cal- Carbon dioxide dissolved in water reacted with the
locked away. Most ongoing carbon capture cium and magnesium ions that chemically basalt (black) in this core to create carbonates
and storage (CCS) projects seal captured CO2 react with CO2 to make calcite, dolomite, and (white), trapping the carbon in solid form deep
deep underground in sedimentary rock res- magnesite. Moreover, dissolving the CO2 in beneath the ground. Credit: Sandra Ó. Snæbjörns-
ervoirs to keep it from escaping. That carbon water above ground and then injecting it into dóttir
6 Eos // June 2020
NEWS
Expanding Around the Globe
Mineral carbonization has been gaining
Nonscientists Struggle to Separate
interest in recent years, Snæbjörnsdóttir said.
“People often believe that this can only be
Climate Fact from Fiction
done if you have geothermal [heat], but that’s
not the case,” she said. “The things that you
need for this to work are just a source of CO2,
[water], and reactive rocks.”
A team in the United States found that the
flood basalts of the Columbia River have a
similar mineralization rate. The European
Union has sponsored future versions of
CarbFix, and an international consortium has
formed with the goal of using CCS to lower
geothermal emissions.
Snæbjörnsdóttir’s team is currently work-
ing to combine this process with direct air
capture of CO2 and researching other path-
ways to mineral carbonization.
“We know that basalts like we have here in
Iceland are perfect for this method,” she said,
“but there might be rock types that are less
reactive but still reactive enough. If some of
C
those rock types are feasible to use for this an you recognize the truthfulness accurate knowledge, but being uncertain
method, we could broaden the applicability of simple statements about climate about this rejection shows inaccurate confi-
even more.” change? Are you sure about that? dence. Accepting the statement that green-
A recent study asked 500 nonscientists to house gas emissions are a main driver of cli-
verify whether climate change statements mate change shows accurate knowledge, and
were true or false and how confident they being certain about this acceptance also
were that science agreed with them. The shows accurate confidence.”
“By using this method, you researchers found that nonscientists were Confidence accuracy can be a powerful tool
can store CO2 in areas you underconfident in their knowledge of true to assess people’s understanding in areas of
statements about climate change but were knowledge that, like climate change, are rife
had not considered before.” overconfident in their ability to recognize with misinformation. The researchers mea-
statements as false. sured the confidence accuracy with regard to
“The confidence we have in our knowledge climate change of nonscientists in Germany
directs our decisions,” said Helen Fischer, a by presenting them with statements about
“For example, there’s been a lot of work postdoctoral researcher in environmental the state, sources, and consequences of cli-
done in Oman where they have very reactive cognition at the Stockholm Resilience Centre mate change. For each statement, a person
peridotites in connection with the ophiolites in Sweden. “If you have correct knowledge was asked whether science agrees with the
that are there,” she said. but you are not confident in that knowledge, statement and to rate their level of confidence
The team is also looking into how well off- then the accuracy of your knowledge doesn’t in their answer from guessing (50% confi-
shore injections using seawater might work. help. We need to be confident that it is correct dence) to absolutely certain (100% confi-
Offshore injection would make this method an to base our decisions on it.” dence).
option in regions with limited freshwater Conversely, “if you have incorrect knowl- For comparison, the team asked more than
resources or that might be prone to induced edge, this is doubly bad if you have high, 200 climate scientists the same climate change
seismicity. If combined with direct air capture unwarranted confidence in that knowledge, questions and a different group of nonscien-
of CO2, that could also bring this carbon stor- because then you will base decisions on wrong tists questions about physical and biological
age method to areas that aren’t strong CO2 knowledge. We will make unfounded deci- sciences. These comparisons revealed how
emitters. sions.” These results were published in Nature high nonscientists’ confidence accuracy could
“It expands the applicability of CCS in gen- Climate Change (bit.l y/ c limate-c hange be with regular exposure to scientifically valid
eral, because by using this method you can -knowledge). information and how high their confidence
store CO2 in areas you had not considered should be given their confidence in a similar
before,” Snæbjörnsdóttir said. “You’re open- Unwarranted Self-Doubt topic.
iStock.com/Olivier Le Moal
ing up new possibilities in addition to the con- The degree to which confidence in knowledge The researchers found no significant dif-
ventional CCS that is already taking place.” is matched by the accuracy of that knowledge ference in nonscientists’ confidence accuracy
is known as confidence accuracy. “For exam- with regard to the state, sources, or conse-
ple,” the team wrote, “rejecting the state- quences of climate change. “The most strik-
By Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@AstroKimCartier), ment that natural variation in sunbeams is ing result,” Fischer said, “is how bad [non-
Staff Writer the main driver of climate change shows scientist] citizens are at telling what they
SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 7
NEWS
“For the false statements, are encouraging—that people were able to that the public message received by a large
correctly identify true statements and felt fraction of the population is that scientific
citizens appeared to have confident about their ability to do so—the uncertainty and scientific debate are much
no insight into the fact that second half of this study—that they were not larger than they really are.”
as able to identify the false statements even “If people are not confident that scientists
they did not know.” when they felt confident in their answers—is agree,” Alley said, “it might not be surprising
discouraging but not surprising.” Hayhoe was that people are not confident of their own
not involved with this research. understanding.”
“If we appear very confident, this affects
know and what they do not know about cli- The Impact of Misinformation others,” Fischer said. “This is very risky. If
mate change compared with how good they “There is no question that misinformation someone has low knowledge but high confi-
are at telling what they know and do not know increases people’s uncertainty regarding what dence, then this will influence others, and
when it comes to general science.” is and what is not true,” Hayhoe said. “When then wrong climate change knowledge can
On true statements, nonscientists’ confi- strong statements are made by perceived have strong network effects, for example,
dence in their climate change knowledge was experts or thought leaders who we respect, we with the media or the Internet.”
only about half what it could be on the basis tend to assume they are true. Today, however, Although this study was not able to assess
of the accuracy of that knowledge—they knew we are being fed false information about cli- the degree to which misinformation about
the right answer but didn’t trust that they did. mate change on a near-daily basis.” climate change led to the true–false gap in
This doubt was greater than for nonscientists’ Fischer noted that this research tested only confidence accuracy, she said, it did under-
general science knowledge and for climate German citizens and that the results might score an important point: “The take-home
scientists’ knowledge. be different in countries with different edu- message is that increasing knowledge is not
However, nonscientists sometimes were cational, political, and media landscapes. enough,” she said. “What has been done a lot
unable to verify 60% of the false statements She aims through future research to assess is to try and increase citizens’ knowledge
about climate change yet were very confident whether confidence in climate change knowl- about climate change. Now the knowledge is
that they had done so. This trend was seen edge correlates with belief in climate change, out there. [People’s] knowledge is not so
only for nonscientists on climate change. how people’s confidence differs before and bad.”
Even when considering that someone might after their exposure to misinformation, and “The next step is to increase confidence,”
just know more about physics or biology than how that confidence changes over a long Fischer said, “not just in accurate statements
about climate change, nonscientists were period of time. but also such that people know what is true
“disproportionately bad” at assessing the “There has been a large, long-lasting effort and what is untrue with high confidence. So
limits of their climate knowledge, Fischer said. to criticize the science of climate change,” that when they see a false statement, they
“For the false statements,” the team wrote, said climate researcher Richard Alley of confidently know, ‘No. I know very certainly
“citizens appeared to have no insight into the Pennsylvania State University in University this is false.’”
fact that they did not know.” Park, who was not involved with this study.
Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at “There is scholarship…showing that s o-
Texas Tech University in Lubbock, said that called ‘skeptical’ scientists have greater pub- By Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@AstroKimCartier),
“while the first half of the results of this study lic exposure than mainstream scientists, so Staff Writer
8 Eos // June 2020NEWS
The Art of Volcanic Ash Modeling
10 Years After Eyjafjallajökull
O
n 14 April 2010, the Icelandic volcano
Eyjafjallajökull erupted explosively,
hurling volcanic ash several kilome-
ters into the atmosphere. Northerly winds
then blew this dense plume toward Europe
and the busiest airspace in the world. Over
the next 6 days, hundreds of thousands of
flights were canceled.
In the first week of the eruption, the clos-
ing of European airspace led to the loss of
1.3 billion euros (approximately $1.4 billion).
In an attempt to stop the hemorrhaging,
European aviation regulators turned to mod-
els of ash dispersal to determine where the
plume was less dense and unlikely to damage
aircraft engines.
Scientists had only started to develop such
models, however, and relied on knowing
intricate details about the eruption to per-
form the work. “But in 2010, the amount and A plume of ash from Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland extends across the sky 4 weeks after the 14 April 2010
quality of the information about ongoing vol- eruption. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, CC BY 2.0 (bit.ly/ccby2-0)
canic activity at the beginning of the eruption
were quite low,” said volcanologist Sara Bar-
sotti of the Icelandic Meteorological Office.
Moreover, European regulators decided rock during the eruption or can include min- on, the operators would scan satellite images
that planes could fly on routes where the ash eral fragments that are contained in the to look for ash clouds, or once they heard of
was below a certain level, but the modelers magma. The tiny shards of broken bubbles are an eruption, they’d set their own rudimentary
weren’t confident that their models could what typically cause the most damage to models running.
deliver the necessary degree of accuracy at humans as well as planes, however. But to accurately model ash dispersal, the
each point of the journey, said Larry Mastin, “If you’re in a place that’s having heavy VAACs needed vital details on an eruption
a hydrologist at the U.S. Geological Survey ashfall, it either forms cement in your lungs, such as the height of the plume, the time the
(USGS) in Vancouver, Wash. which isn’t good, or it cuts your lungs,” said eruption started, and how long the eruption
The 2010 experience, however, galvanized Erik Klemetti, a volcanologist at Denison Uni- lasted. Consequently, volcanologists became
the community into creating more powerful versity in Granville, Ohio. “As gruesome as it involved, and the collaborations spurred
models. “It became a technical challenge for sounds, the deaths from volcanic ash are usu- improvements to the meteorological disper-
the world’s modelers to be able to produce ally coming from people drowning in their sion models used by most VAACs, along with
model output during an eruption that has own blood.” development of volcano-specific models such
meaningful airborne ash concentrations,” Consequently, in the early 2000s, research- as Ash3d.
Mastin said. ers around the world began to try to forecast When trying to determine how far ash
where ash would travel or fall after an erup- travels, a key factor is how much ash is “com-
Shattered Glass tion. While in Italy, Barsotti helped develop ing out of the box” during an eruption, a
Despite its name, volcanic ash isn’t the the model in 2008, and by 2010, the USGS had quantity that is correlated with the height of
remains of burned material, like the ash left developed its own model called Ash3d. the plume, Mastin said. Another important
after fires. It is far more deadly. “By April 2010, it was just starting to work, factor is the grain size of the ash that is being
As magma rises underneath a volcano, tiny and then of course, Eyjafjallajökull erupted,” erupted—smaller particles remain aloft lon-
bubbles of carbon dioxide and water vapor said Mastin. “And then the whole world ger and can drift farther.
form in it. When the magma can no longer changed in terms of how important it was to Wind patterns determine how fast and how
hold the bubbles, they pop, driving the vol- be able to forecast where ash clouds go.” far the ash is transported, requiring the input
canic eruption. And once the sticky bubble of hour-by-hour meteorological data at dif-
walls reach the atmosphere, they cool into A Meeting of Minds ferent heights and distances from the vol-
tiny shards of glass, each less than a few mil- In the early 1990s, the International Civil Avi- cano. “The way that ashes are dispersed in
limeters in size. ation Organization began to set up nine Vol- the atmosphere is pretty complicated,” Mas-
Most of the ash from Eyjafjallajökull con- canic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) around tin said. “It could be blowing in a completely
sisted of these bubble fragments, but ash can the world to monitor and provide warnings to different direction at several kilometers’ alti-
also be produced from the shattering of old aircraft of volcanic ash in their region. Early tude than it is at low altitude.”
SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 9NEWS
The VAACs have their own models, which
they use to generate specialized warnings to
Predicting Fast Moving Flash Droughts
the aviation community; researchers, volcano
D
observatories, and weather services around roughts have an insidious reputation,
the world are able to freely use Ash3d to gen- often building gradually over several
erate ashfall warnings from eruptions in their dry seasons. Flash droughts are a lesser
region. known phenomenon in which intensely dry
In Iceland, researchers now use the Numer- conditions develop in as little as 2 weeks,
ical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Envi- wreaking havoc on crops and water supplies.
ronment (NAME) ash dispersal model, devel- A new study is shedding light on how scien-
oped by the UK Met Office, integrated into tists can more effectively monitor and predict
a system that models a range of impacts these quickly evolving phenomena, which are
expected from an eruption. The Icelandic projected to become more frequent with cli-
Meteorological Office is continuously running mate change.
simulations of eruptions of five h igh-threat Flash droughts were first recognized in
volcanoes using current weather conditions 2002, but “we don’t know much about how
with this software. “Having this system in they develop because few studies have
place helps a quick response to an emer- focused specifically on short-term events,” Drought can devastate agricultural production.
gency,” Barsotti said. said lead author Angeline Pendergrass, an Credit: Unsplash/Christophe Maertens
atmospheric scientist at the National Center
Onward and Upward for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
Although researchers have improved their In the new study, published in Nature Cli-
models in the past 12 years, techniques used mate Change, Pendergrass and colleagues “A comprehensive early-warning system
to monitor many of the features of an erup- define flash droughts as sudden onset events is not just about tracking precipitation and
tion have also advanced, which also increases that create severely dry conditions in about temperature,” he said. “You also need to
the models’ accuracy, Barsotti said. 2–6 weeks (bit.ly/flash-droughts). If these monitor soil moisture conditions, stream-
Monitoring volcanoes for eruptions is events occur during the peak of the growing flow, water stress, and reservoir levels.”
essential to providing timely warnings, and season, they can kill off crops over large Currently, these variables tend to be mon-
even remote volcanoes that are under air traf- areas, as happened across the midwestern itored on a weekly basis, with some factors
fic routes need to be monitored, said volca- United States in 2012. updating more or less often, Pendergrass
nologist Charles Mandeville, program coordi- The conditions leading up to a flash drought said. “We need to increase the frequency with
nator of the USGS Volcano Hazards Program. are still being quantified, but decreased rain- which monitoring products are being updated
In March 2019, legislators passed a bill to fall, above-average temperatures, and low so we can better capture these quickly moving
fund the National Volcano Early Warning Sys- soil moisture all play a role, with many flash flash drought events,” she said. “[It] will take
tem in the United States, which will eventu- droughts triggered by heat waves following time, money, and people to accomplish that,
ally result in increased monitoring of high- a dry period. Like regular droughts, flash but it’s possible.”
and medium-risk volcanoes in the country. droughts can strike anywhere, although arid Both droughts and flash droughts are
“We have to get much better at optimizing and semiarid environments are especially expected to occur more frequently and with
the networks that are out on the volcanoes, susceptible because soils there often have more severity in the future, Wilhite said.
to give us the earliest warnings possible,” low moisture levels y ear-round, Pendergrass “With climate change, temperatures are
Mandeville said. said. escalating, increasing water stress over large
The fact that modelers now have increased More work is needed to elucidate a myriad areas of the planet. We’re seeing droughts
access to better quality monitoring data, as of other factors that may also contribute to run the gamut from weeks to multiple years,
well as the opportunity to assimilate the flash droughts, she said, including the atmo- affecting entire continents. It’s a hugely
observational data into the models, has spheric and meteorological conditions that dynamic phenomenon.”
improved their forecasts a lot, Barsotti said. lead to decreased rainfall patterns, how the The new study, authored by 22 people in
But ultimately, the biggest advancements in land surface responds to warmer tempera- fields ranging from atmospheric science to
the past 10 years have come from the collab- tures, and the balance between water absorp- agricultural management, shows that flash
orations between scientists from many dif- tion and runoff in capturing the rain that does droughts are becoming a more mainstream
ferent disciplines. fall on a parched landscape. area of study, Wilhite said. “The authorship
“The volcanological community is now on this study is a good sign that flash droughts
connected with the meteorological commu- Adapting Early-Warning Systems are being widely recognized by the scientific
nity, for example,” Barsotti said. “These con- Drought early-warning systems are already community. It’s a very impressive c ross-
nections will allow us to respond to the next in place across the United States, said Donald disciplinary collaboration, and that’s what’s
eruption in a more workable and successful Wilhite, a drought management specialist at needed to better understand these quickly
way.” the University of N
ebraska–Lincoln, but these moving drought events.”
systems will need to be adapted to be able to
predict droughts that evolve over short time
By Jane Palmer (@JanePalmerComms), Science frames. Wilhite was not involved in the new By Mary Caperton Morton (@theblondecoyote),
Writer study. Science Writer
10 Eos // June 2020NEWS
The Arctic Ocean May Not Be a Reliable Carbon Sink
H
istorically, scientists have believed that compared to the size of the ocean…and fresh “There could be other pieces of the story
the Arctic Ocean will be an important water has a very low alkalinity or buffering that we don’t know about yet,” Manizza said.
carbon sink in the coming years: ice capacity, so this has reduced the ability of the “There are so many physical and biogeo-
melt will increase the surface area that’s Arctic Ocean to take up CO2.” chemical processes that are linked together
exposed to the air, facilitating carbon uptake that determine the [CO2] uptake in the end.”
from the atmosphere, and cold Arctic waters Manizza pointed out that temperature is
can store more carbon dioxide (CO2) than increasing rapidly in the Arctic Ocean—much
warmer waters.
Or at least that’s what was supposed to
Over the past 20 years, faster than in the other oceans. And changing
temperatures are associated with a whole
happen. But scientists have begun to suspect the amount of dissolved suite of other changes: Sea ice is melting,
that this might not be the case, and new removing a protective barrier between the
research suggests that the Arctic Ocean, in
inorganic carbon in Arctic ocean and the wind, which could affect ocean
fact, is not as reliable a carbon sink as we waters has unexpectedly stratification. Warmer temperatures and
thought (bit.ly/Arctic-carbon). Using data changes in ocean stratification could affect
from three research cruises (in 1994, 2005,
decreased. the amount and the types of primary produc-
and 2015), scientists were able to chart how ers that can live in the Arctic. All of these fac-
the physical properties of the Arctic Ocean tors, either directly or indirectly, may affect
(including total alkalinity, temperature, and the amount of CO2 that the Arctic Ocean can
dissolved inorganic carbon) changed over But Manfredi Manizza, a biogeochemical absorb from the atmosphere.
time. oceanographer at the Scripps Institution of
They found that over the past 20 years, Oceanography, said that although there has Arctic Freshening
although the amount of CO2 in the atmo- indeed been an increased input of fresh water However, Manizza agreed that Arctic fresh-
sphere has gone up, the amount of dissolved to the Arctic Ocean, the reasons for the less- ening is occurring, which could have major
inorganic carbon in Arctic waters has unex- than-expected uptake of anthropogenic car- implications for Arctic Ocean ecosystems.
pectedly decreased. bon may be slightly more complicated than “The fresh water and this lowering alka-
That’s because a reduction in sea ice isn’t the explanation presented in the paper. He linity are causing a rapid decrease in pH,”
the only major change that’s happening in said that rivers have different alkalinities and said Woosley. This means that like many
the Arctic Ocean. carry different amounts of dissolved inor- other oceans, the Arctic is becoming more
“There’s actually been a huge increase of ganic carbon into the Arctic Ocean, so under- acidic.
fresh water into the Arctic Ocean,” said Ryan standing these inputs is an important part of Although the effects of Arctic Ocean acid-
Woosley, a marine physical chemist at the determining the ability of the Arctic to take ification are not fully understood, Manizza
Massachusetts Institute of Technology and up atmospheric CO2. Furthermore, there are said that acidification could alter the types of
lead author of the study. “The Arctic is kind many other changes taking place in the Arctic plankton that are able to survive there, which
of unique compared to the other oceans at the same time, each of which could also could in turn affect organisms higher up the
because there’s a huge amount of river input affect the ability of the ocean to take up CO2. food chain. There are even concerns that
acidification could threaten economically
important Arctic fisheries.
Furthermore, Woosley said that an Arctic
Ocean that is an ineffective carbon sink could
have important global implications. “More
[CO2] will stay in the atmosphere, increasing
global warming.”
Ultimately, Woosley and Manizza agree
that more data are needed. Woosley is hoping
that another research cruise will take place in
2025, which would help to expand our knowl-
edge of a region historically difficult to study.
He hopes that having more data will shed
light on the dynamics of Arctic Ocean fresh-
ening and acidification, which could affect of
Arctic ecosystems and fisheries, and Arctic
Ocean CO2 uptake, which could affect the cli-
mate of our entire planet.
By Hannah Thomasy (@HannahThomasy),
A research vessel floats in the Arctic Ocean. Credit: NOAA Science Writer
SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 11NEWS
Human Composting Is a Greener Way to Go
H
uman composting might be a viable Composting deceased persons, or natural killing off most common bacteria and patho-
funeral option while also being more organic reduction, provides another sustain- gens, C
arpenter-Boggs said. That would make
environmentally friendly than other able alternative to cremation and burial. The the resulting compost safe to keep in an urn
methods of postdeath care, according to a concept got its start from the widespread or incorporate into the ground.
recent pilot study. practice of composting dead livestock. “We achieved proof of concept, and by our
“Currently, in the U.S. there are two pri- “It’s actually a fairly common practice on last set of subjects I was very happy with the
mary options for disposal or final resting of livestock farms,” C arpenter-Boggs said. end material,” Carpenter-Boggs said. “For
the human body, which are cremation and Carpenter-Boggs is a soil scientist at Wash- commercial use, there will be further changes
burial,” lead researcher Lynne C arpenter- ington State University in Pullman and a in the infrastructure and process.”
Boggs said in a press conference. research adviser for the human composting
“We are using fresh natural plant materials company Recompose.
in addition to the human body and managing “Composting is an accepted practice and
that through composting to produce high actually, in many areas, a promoted practice
heat and rapid decomposition,” she said. The by departments of agriculture and depart- “It’s highly effective, but
resulting material “is multidecadal carbon ments of health for the disposal of livestock it’s taken some thought
storage and improves soil health and plant mortality.” She said the team first composted
growth.” livestock materials and then fine-tuned the and some redesign to
processes for human remains.
make this a process that
A Sustainable Alternative “It’s highly effective, but it’s taken some
In 2019, 93.8% of people who died in the thought and some redesign to make this a would be allowable and
United States were either buried or cremated,
according to the National Funeral Directors
process that would be allowable and accept-
able for human use,” she added.
acceptable for human use.”
Association. However, those two funeral In the pilot study, the researchers com-
methods each have a large environmental posted six donated research subjects using
impact. Burial puts millions of liters of natural plant material as a starter. After
embalming fluid and thousands of cubic 4–7 weeks, each body turned 2–3 cubic yards A Net Positive for the Environment
meters of wood into the ground. The carbon of starter into 1.5–2 cubic yards of compost The total environmental impact of human
dioxide released into the atmosphere by cre- and bones. Carpenter-Boggs said that as with composting can’t be fully assessed before it
mation is equivalent to driving a car hundreds cremation, a commercial composting facility becomes a commercial process, Carpenter-
of kilometers. would likely processes the material further to Boggs said, but it would likely not be entirely
More environmentally friendly funeral deal with the skeletal remains. carbon neutral. Composting facilities would
methods like alkaline hydrolysis and green The composting process heated the decom- still need to be built, heated, and powered.
burial are not widely available across the posing material enough to sterilize it to Envi- However, unlike cremation and burial, com-
United States. ronmental Protection Agency accepted levels, posting would provide a net positive impact
on the environment and sustainability.
Composting “is a fabulous option,” Jenni-
fer DeBruyn, a microbial ecologist at the Uni-
versity of Tennessee in Knoxville who was not
involved with this work, told Science News.
“The idea of applying it to humans, to me, as
an ecologist and someone who has worked in
composting, it just makes perfect sense, hon-
estly.”
Human composting has a long way to go
before it becomes commonplace. In May 2019,
Washington became the first state to legalize
the practice. Similar legislation is under con-
sideration in California and Colorado.
“There’s tremendous interest in the
method by the public and by funeral homes,”
Carpenter-Boggs said. “It will take time to
legalize the process in more states and to
standardize the process for new facilities.”
By Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@AstroKimCartier),
Staff Writer
12 Eos // June 2020NEWS
Trapped at Sea During a Pandemic Lockdown
O
ceanographer Rainer Lohmann from cruise, making it challenging to limit geo-
the University of Rhode Island was on graphic risk. Putting a group in small quar-
a research cruise near Barbados when ters creates a higher risk of transmission,
the coronavirus spread rapidly into a pan- especially because testing participants for
demic. COVID-19 before the cruise isn’t possible,
“When we left, everything was normal,” according to Lee. While each cruise has at
Lohmann said, speaking by phone while his least one person trained in emergency med-
ship, the R/V Endeavor, waited to dock in the icine and significant medical supplies, ships
city of Praia in Cape Verde on 17 March. “Now have “far short of an ICU,” said Lee, and it
what we’re hearing and seeing is that we’re could take days to get to port.
coming back to a country where we have to Oceanographer Jonathan Fram at Oregon
fight for toilet paper, where there are no hand State University had a local cruise scheduled
sanitizers left, and you can’t go out to restau- in late March to replace equipment in a long-
rants.” term array installed off the coast. “We have a
The Endeavor left the Caribbean island of parking lot full of wonderful moorings, clean
Barbados in late February and set off toward and ready to go,” he said. Usually, the team
Cape Verde near West Africa, collecting sed- services the array every 6 months to monitor,
iment cores as it went. Lohmann and his among other things, ocean acidification and
team were investigating whether ocean sed- low-oxygen conditions that can be harmful
iments thousands of meters below the sur- to marine life.
face contained traces of atmospheric black Their cruise was canceled, and Fram was
carbon. After traversing much of the Atlantic concerned about their equipment left at sea.
Ocean, they had all the samples they needed The moorings will “go dark” after a while, he
and planned to fly home via Europe in m id- The R/V Endeavor sits in port in Cape Verde to said in March, and the autonomous, torpedo-
March. receive supplies. To reduce the risk of infections, shaped underwater vehicles (gliders) that tra-
But they faced a problem: The United anyone who left the ship was not allowed back on verse the array will have run out of batteries
States had just imposed strict travel restric- board. Credit: Lydia Sgouros in May.
tions through Europe. They needed a new way Pushing back the cruise means that the
home. team missed recording data during the coastal
ocean’s transition from winter to spring,
Plans Scrapped Europe blocked, he and five other scientists when ocean upwelling brings nutrient-rich
Scientists around the world scrambled to who live in the United States decided to stay waters along the Pacific Coast. “It’s import-
adjust to a rapidly changing environment. on board the ship as it traveled back to its ant to get a measure of that transition. And
Researchers have shuttered labs, switched to home port in Rhode Island. Two scientists on we’re not going to be able to do that as well
remote observing on telescopes, and learned the cruise from Spain departed at Cape Verde this year,” Fram said.
to present their work virtually. A confirmed to catch one of the few remaining flights back As for the Endeavor on its international
case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) home. cruise, Lohmann said that the crew took pre-
among the aircraft team of the Arctic expedi- “It’s just one domino falling after the cautions to limit any transmission risk while
tion Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory other, and you realize that you’re just in the in port in Cape Verde. Food was handed over
for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) middle of this geopolitical crisis,” Lohmann the raised platform connecting the ship to the
quarantined about 20 of its members. Uni- said. dock, people did not leave the ship if they
versities around the world have closed for the intended to get back on, and no new passen-
rest of the school year. And the Future Uncertain gers joined for the voyage home. During their
Research teams and oceangoing scientists UNOLS chair Craig Lee said that the group 2-week journey back, those on board took
who work in the field, often in remote loca- postponed cruises partly because it’s not their temperatures daily and used disposable
Opposite: Paolo Crosetto, CC BY-SA 2.0 (bit.ly/ccbysa2-0)
tions, are facing new questions about how to known how expeditions can mitigate the risks cutlery and dishware.
conduct science safely. The organization that of transmission of C OVID-19 while at sea. On Lohmann said the expedition was laid over
coordinates oceanographic research vessels 30 March, UNOLS provided a statement: “In for 3 days in Barbados at the start of the
across 59 academic institutions, University- the U.S. it is clear that the peak of the out- cruise, meaning they missed the window to
National Oceanographic Laboratory System break and any beginnings of a reduction or catch flights back to the United States. “We
(UNOLS), resumed limited cruises again in flattening of ‘the curve’ are still weeks away, couldn’t foresee that those 3 days were going
May after quarantining crews. and are based on successful social distancing to make the difference for most of us,”
Endeavor, one of the UNOLS fleet, is one of efforts.” Lohmann said.
the few vessels that were midvoyage when But on a ship, social isolation and physical
the situation worsened. Endeavor barely made distancing are “difficult to impossible,” said
it to Cape Verde before its ports closed to Lee. Crew, technicians, and scientists may By Jenessa Duncombe (@jrdscience), Staff
ships, Lohmann said. Their flights through come from many locations for the same Writer
SCIENCE NEWS BY AGU // Eos.org 13You can also read
