A person who keeps patience is sure to win in share market - Suresh Rathi
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A person who keeps patience
is sure to win in share market.
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
Suresh Rathi
Suresh Rathi
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment Daily Research Reports
Disclosures and Disclaimer : This report must be read with the disclosures in the Disclosure appendix,
and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. This document does not contain any investment views or opinions.
Suresh Rathi Market Forecast Friday
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment 23rd July, 2021
Good Morning & Welcome to Friday’s trading action at Dalal Street INDICES
dated 23rd of July 2021.
Nifty 15824 1.23%
The benchmark Nifty is likely to open near Thursday’s closing levels and that Bank Nifty 34677 0.76%
brings us to our call of the day which suggests that the bears are doing just
enough to remind the bulls that it will not be a straight shot to the moon. Nifty Auto Index 10236 0.13%
Nifty FMCG Index 32264 0.09%
So the big question of the day: Will yesterday’s risk rally start to lose steam?
Nifty Infra Index 4485 1.63%
Honestly speaking, Nifty is not out of woods yet. But the good news is that the
market mood has improved considerably after yesterday sharp rebound. Nifty IT Index 29780 1.80%
The positive catalysts: Nifty Media Index 1771 1.50%
Nifty Midcap Index 7588 1.13%
1. Optimism about a global recovery
Nifty Metal Index 5349 2.99%
2. Earning optimism
Nifty Pharma Index 14575 0.66%
3. Stabilizing U.S Treasury yields.
Nifty Reality Index 396 1.75%
4. The central banks likely to stick to a dovish stance.
Nifty Smallcap Index 10455 1.47%
Technically speaking, confirmation of strength on any close above Nifty 15857 Sensex 52837 1.22%
mark. Investors who hold onto the benchmark above 15857 mark may stand to
benefit with aggressive targets at 16000 mark. Alternatively, if Nifty is unable to SGX Nifty 15778 -0.21%
move above 15857 mark then some corrective declines likely towards 15700-
15750 zone.
Outlook for the Day
Nifty’s next move is likely to be a straight shot to the moon. However, bulls & bears
Buy on dips
are likely to lock horns with regards to Bank Nifty.
What comes next for Nifty and Bank Nifty?
• Preferred trade on Nifty (15824): Buy between 15750-15775 zone.
Targets at 15857/15963 mark and then aggressive targets at 16001-16250
Nifty Outlook
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
Suresh Rathi
zone with strict stop at 15678. Intraday Positive (15721-15921)
• Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (34677): Sell between 34901-35101 Medium Term Positive (15151-16250)
zone. Targets at 34357/34001 and then aggressive targets at 33849 mark Positive (13501-16501)
Long Term
with stop at 35611.
• BULLISH STOCKS: JSW STEEL, TECH MAHINDRA, PIDILITE, GRASIM,
AUROBINDO PHARMA, LUPIN, MCDOWELL, ITC. TATASTEEL, UPL,
HINDALCO, ICICIPRULI, BHARTIARTL, DLF, SBIN. Key Levels to Watch
• BEARISH STOCKS: ADANIPORTS, LAL PATH LABBS, BANDHANBANK, Nifty Support 15721/15577
BHARAT FORGE, METROPOLIS, IRCTC, INDIGO. Nifty Resistance 15857/16027
• Our chart of the day is bullish on stocks like Larsen, JSW Steel, Tech
Mahindra and Ashok Leyland look attractive with interweek perspective.
Pivot Level
• The 1 Stock to Buy Right Now: Momentum Call: Buy HEROMOTO CORP
Nifty 15411
July Futures for 0-9 days at CMP 2839 for an objective of 3101. Stop 2737.
Alert: OVERSOLD ZONE.
Wealth Creator thru Systematic InvestmentSuresh Rathi Market Forecast
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
• FY21-22 Q1 earnings to trickle in today:
Technical Strategy
o Friday, 23rd July 2021: AMBUJACEM, YESBANK, RELIANCE, JSWSTEEL,
FEDERALBANK. McDOWELL 675
• Bajaj Auto's April to June quarter (Q1FY22) standalone net profit jumped Action BUY
101.2 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1,061.18 crore on Thursday, on the back
of healthy exports amd low base of last year. Separately, the company Target 821
announced formation of a wholly-owned subsidiary to venture into electric
mobility segment. Support 633/617
• Hindustan Unilever (HUL) posted a standalone net profit of Rs 2,061 crore Resistance 743/821
for the quarter ended June 2021, implying growth of 9.56% on a year-on-
year (YoY) basis. Its standalone net profit stood at Rs 1,881 crore in the Holding Period 60-90 days
corresponding quarter last fiscal. On a sequential basis, profit for the
quarter declined by 3.8% as against Rs 2,143 crore posted in the March
UNITED SPIRITS LTD (USL) is a subsidiary of Diageo plc- a
2021 quarter. global leader in beverage alcohol with portfolios including
brands such as McDowells No.1, Royal Challenge, Signature,
and Antiquity, among others. It also imports, manufactures
and sells Diageos iconic brands such as Johnnie Walker, VAT
Outlook for Friday: Stock specific action will command 69, Black & White, Smirno and Ciroc in India.
investors’ attention. In addition, the Company holds the perpetual right to the
Bangalore Franchise of Board of Control for Cricket in India -
Earnings and rising coronavirus cases around the world remain in focus for Indian Premier League (BCCI-IPL).
investors. The positive catalyst in favor of USL is the YoY strong pick-up in
demand amidst improved consumer sentiments and focus on
Now, here are other key things to know before today’s market opens: newer trend of consumption at home premises. Amidst
ongoing pandemic, USL preferred strategy appears to be to
• Technically speaking, the bulls are seen fighting back control, looking to reinvest and renovate its biggest core brands i.e. McDowell’s
No. 1 and Royal Challenge with an innovative packaging and
recapture Nifty’s all-time-high at 15963 mark. For the day, if Nifty’s 15857 new blends. The management has as well indicated that
barrier is taken out convincingly then simply expect Nifty to rip to its McDowell’s No 1 renovation received a good response from
customers. The strategy of investing in increasing its brand
psychological 16,000 mark. Downside likely to be limited to 15700-15725 strength and boosting its premium brands is seen boding well
zone. as is materializing to higher share of its revenues. USL also
continues to focus on its premiumisation strategy. Improving
o Only if Nifty slips below the 15578 mark then it’s safe to assume that trends for premium portfolio in FY21 is a positive sign.
rising inflation risks are spoiling the party at Dalal Street with targets at The management is also focused its resources on capitalising
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
Suresh Rathi
latest trends such as consumption in home premises. Potential
15151-15201 zone. Nifty’s 200 day EMA at 14271 mark. The price new distribution model like online ordering and home delivery
action for Nifty in near term is suggesting that we are likely to see a can be a structural positive for USL. Advertisement spends are
expected to play a significant the firm to drive its
15,500- 16200 range in near term. premiumisation strategy over the longer term.
• Nifty and Sensex are again seen flirting with their all-time-highs but the USL is also set to benefit from the unlocking of movement
restrictions across states as Covid cases come down.
foreign institutional investors continue to be the in the sell side taking
Technically, brace yourselves for a major rebound play on the
money off the table. FIIs have sold to the tune of Rs 12204.87 crore in the
daily charts with recent sequence of higher high intact on the
month of July. daily charts. An impulse uptrend is seen forming on the weekly
time scale, with positive SAR series, as the price pattern has
• The options data for July series suggests Nifty is likely to be in a trading just been confirmed on its close above the Jan 2021 highs at
663 mark.
range of 15500-16000 as maximum Call OI is at 16000 followed by 15800
strike price. Maximum Put open interest stands at 15000 levels followed by Add to that a bullish divergence and a rising stochastic signal
(on weekly charts) with recent increase in volumes signaling a
15500 levels. Call writing was seen at 15700 and then at 15600 strike price, larger rebound. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average
while there was meaningful Put writing at 15600 and then at 15200 strike (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at 589 zone.
prices. Simply buy at CMP, and on dips between 613-621 zone,
targeting 707/750 mark and then at all-time-high at
• The slight optimism for our stock markets is also on backdrop of the fact 817. Stop 571. Holding Period: 3 Months+. Aggressive
1-year targets seen at psychological 1000 mark.
that the volatility index is seen hovering at 11.80 levels. Well, a lower VIX
level is seen bullish for stocks.
Wealth Creator thru Systematic InvestmentSuresh Rathi Market Forecast
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
• The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell Thursday to 1.273%. Yields dropped below 1.2% earlier this week as traders
pared bets on any near-term moves on interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
FII/DII & OPTIONS DATA:
• The Put-Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.01 for Nifty.
• As per Friday’s provisional data available on the NSE, FIIs sold shares worth Rs. 466.30 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs
on the other hand bought shares worth Rs. 666.07 crores in the Indian Equity market.
• As per Monday’s provisional data available on the NSE, FIIs sold shares worth Rs. 2198.71 crores in the Indian Equity Market.
DIIs on the other hand bought shares worth Rs. 1047.66 crores in the Indian Equity market.
• As per Tuesday’s provisional data available on the NSE, FIIs sold shares worth Rs. 2834.96 crores in the Indian Equity Market.
DIIs on the other hand bought shares worth Rs. 873.14 crores in the Indian Equity market.
• As per Thursday’s provisional data available on the NSE, FIIs sold shares worth Rs. 247.59 crores in the Indian Equity Market.
DIIs on the other hand bought shares worth Rs. 942.55 crores in the Indian Equity market.
• Stock banned in F&O segment: CADILA, CANBK, IBULSHSGFIN, NATIONALUM, NMDC, SUNTV.
ECONOMIC CUES:
• Auto finance companies are expected to post a sharp rise in bad debts due to Covid-19-related shutdowns announced by
various State governments in April and May. The auto loan business of Bajaj Finance--the first non-banking finance company
to announce results for June quarter--has reported a sharp rise of 19 per cent in bad debts in the June quarter, led by defaults
in the two- and three-wheeler segments.
• Powell repeats view of ‘Transitory Inflation’, but also highlights the role inflation expectations play as an
input to central-bank policy. Powell said that central-bank officials will continue to discuss their timeline to
reduce the pace of its bond purchases at coming meetings.
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
Suresh Rathi
GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS:
Overnight at Wall Street, U.S stocks mostly traded subdued as optimism about earnings and the economic recovery is outweighed
by a surprising jump in U.S. unemployment claims.
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose last week to 419,000, up 51,000 from the week earlier
and higher than economists' forecasts.
The small-cap Russell 2000 is seen flirting near 2,124 mark. A close below 2,124.15 would mark a pullback of 10% from its recent
high, meeting the widely used definition of a market correction.
Denting sentiments were reports that Japan is struggling to host the Olympics amidst a pandemic.
In the week gone by, the Dow saw a 0.5% weekly decline, while the S&P 500 had a 1% weekly loss and the Nasdaq fell 1.9% for the
week. The small-capitalization Russell 2000 index dropped 5.1% for the week in its third straight weekly loss. Interestingly, Dow
registered an all-time high at 35090, S&P 500 hit at 4375.09 and Nasdaq’s high was at 14803.6.
Wealth Creator thru Systematic InvestmentSuresh Rathi Market Forecast
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
IPOs and Listing:
Investors will eye at the IPO share allotment of Zomato, which is expected on July 22. The Rs 9,375-crore public issue has received
more than Rs 2 lakh crore of bids in three days - July 14-16, including over Rs 1.5 lakh crore of bids only by qualified institutional
buyers, helping the issue get subscribed 38.25 times. The funds will be refunded around July 23.
What Technical Tells Us on Nifty/Sensex:
In yesterday’s trade, bulls roared at Dalal Street as Nifty ended above the 15800. Metals shined.
Dalal Street rose sharply in yesterday’s trade as positive global equity backdrop outweighed COVID fears. Also helping sentiments
were earning optimism.
The optimism was so powerful that bears could not even defend Nifty’s psychological 15800 mark and most importantly, reminded
the bears’ camp that the next move is likely to be a straight shot to the moon —— Ab ki bar solah hazar (Nifty to rip to its
psychological 16,000 mark).
Amongst sectoral indices, the Nifty Metal index rebounded over 3%, trailed by the Nfty IT and Realty indices, up
1.71% and 1.70 respectively. BSE midcap and smallcap indices rose 1.5 percent each.
The other key highlights of today’s trade:
• Nifty makes a smart bounce, ends above 15800; sets its eye on 16000 mark.
• Bank Nifty index slightly outperforms, up 0.76% as against Nifty 1.23% upmove.
• Around 43 stocks of the Nifty 50 stocks end the day in green.
• Top Index Gainers: JSW STEEL (+5.87%), TECH MAHINDRA (+5.41%), BAJAJ FINANCE (+4.16%)
• Top Index Losers: HUL (-2.34%), ASIAN PAINTS (-1.83%), BAJAJ AUTO (-1.17%)
Daily chart of Nifty:
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
Suresh Rathi
Wealth Creator thru Systematic InvestmentSuresh Rathi
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
TOP PICKS (F & O)
It's like having investment binoculars !
McDowell: A Screaming buy. Aggressive targets at 747 mark.
STOCKS LTP S1 S2 R1 R2 BIAS TRADING STRATEGY
Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 129/133 mark
and then aggressive targets at 143 mark. Stop below
ASHOK LEYLAND 124.05 121 117.5 129 143 Positive 119.70. ASHOK LEYLAND is seen outperfoming the auto
space.
Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 1621 and
then at 1691-1701 zone. Stop below 1535. GRASIM is
GRASIM 1582 1539 1509 1621 1701 Positive signalling a breakout from a probable 'flag pattern' on
daily charts.
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
Suresh Rathi
Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 2901/2968
and then aggressive inter-month targets at 3091 mark.
HEROMOTOR CORP 2838 2801 2741 2968 3091 Positive Stop 2797. Oversold technical conditions prevail.
Strength only above 2968.
Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 411/451.
JINDAL STEEL 394 385 377 411 451 Positive Stop 383. Oversold conditions prevail. Confirmation of
& POWER strength above 411.
Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 684/703 mark
and then at 737-747 zone. Stop 649. MCDOWELL is
MCDOWELL 675 661 633 684 747 Positive signaling a massive breakout on the monthly charts. Key
support seen at 633 zone.
Wealth Creator thru Systematic InvestmentFriday
Suresh Rathi EQUITY DERIVATIVES 23rd July, 2021
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment Looking into the future from present.
Derivatives Strategies
Changes in Open Interest (OI) in yesterday’s trade.
Future Call: BUY UPL JULY FUTURES at CMP 826.85. Targets at Nifty Spot 15824.05 (+1.23%)
841 and then at 853. Stop: 813. Holding Period: Intraday. Analyst’s
Remark: Rebound Play (UPL JULY Futures CMP 826.85) Bank Nifty Spot 34677.30 (+0.76%)
VIX 11.885 (-10.00%)
Option Call: SELL NIFTY 29th JULY PE Strike Price 15900 at CMP Premium -01 vs -02
129. Maximum Profit: Rs. 6,450.00/-. Loss: Unlimited. Stop: Exit Nifty Future OI 0.84 crores (-11.45%)
Put Option if NIFTY moves below 15700. (NIFTY JULY Futures
CMP 15823.45). Bank Nifty Future OI 20.18 lakhs (-12.61%)
Market Summary: Cash Volumes Day Before
Yesterday
(INR in Cr.) Yesterday
• Nifty July Futures ended Thursday’s session at a discount of -01 vs
discount of -02. BSE Cash Vol.
4999.8 6558
(Rs. in Cr)
• The 29th July expiry Put-Call Open Interest Ratio was at 1.01 for
NSE Cash Vol.
Nifty whereas it was 0.69 for Bank Nifty. 65,929.55 63,940.35
(Rs. in Cr)
• The 29th July expiry Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 0.93 for the Nifty NSE Derivative
and 0.79 for Bank Nifty. 1,01,29,739.58 57,05,481.09
Vol. (Rs. in Cr)
• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 16000 Strike
Price, followed by 15800 Strike Price for 29th July Series. Short Derivatives Vol. No of Turnover
buildup was seen at strike prices 16100-16700. (INR in Cr.) contracts (Rs. In cr.)
• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 15000
Index Future Volumes 3,34,947 27,807
followed by 15500 strike prices for 29th July series. Short buildup
was seen at strike prices 15400-16200. 9,69,348 79,578
Stock Future Volumes
• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 35000
Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 34000 Strike Index Option Volumes 10,34,38,366 97,39,836.59
Price.
Stock Option Volumes 33,64,002 2,82,518.02
• As per Thursday’s provisional data available on the NSE, FIIs sold
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
Suresh Rathi
shares worth Rs. 247.59 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs on Total 10,81,06,663 1,01,29,739.58
the other hand bought shares worth Rs. 942.55 crores in the Indian
Equity market.
Major Changes in Nifty Options (OI)
• Long Buildup: TATASTEEL, UPL, HINDALCO, ICICIPRULI.
Calls in lakhs (% Change)
• Short Buildup: HUL, BAJAJ AUTO, LALPATHLAB, M&M.
15400 1.32 (-30%)
• Short Covering: BHARTIARTL, DLF, JSWSTEEL, SBIN.
15500 5.37 (-27%)
• Long Unwinding: ACC, IRCTC, AUBANK, SHREECEM.
15600 6.35 (-41%)
• Stocks banned in F&O segment: CADILA, CANBK,
IBULSHSGFIN, NATIONALUM, NMDC, SUNTV. Puts in lakhs (% Change)
• New in Ban: CANBK. 15700 24.41 (+85%)
• Out of Ban: PNB, SAIL. 15800 25.58 (+95%)
15900 8.14 (+72%)
Wealth Creator thru Systematic InvestmentSuresh Rathi
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
The Navigator
…Sailing global trend
WTI OIL: Positive bias to continue .Covid related fears are unlikely to dent demand.
Instrument LTP S1 S2 R1 R2 Bias TRADING STRATEGY
Interweek Strategy: Establish buy positions only above 1829 zone.
GOLD $ 1805 1787 1753 1849 1881 Neutral Targets 1849/1881 mark with stop at 1776.
Interweek Strategy: Establish buy positions only above 26.69 zone.
SILVER ($) 25.38 24.69 23.67 27.45 30.55 Neutral Targets 27.45/30.55 with stop at 24.41.
WTI CRUDE Interweek Strategy: Establish buy positions at CMP. Targets 75/77.50 and
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
Suresh Rathi
71.55 70.05 68.75 75 77.5 Positive then at 79.50 zone stop at 69.05.
OIL ($ )
Interweek Strategy: Establish short positions between 1.1855-1.1875
EUR/USD 1.1763 1.1721 1.1698 1.1929 1.2251 Neutral zone. Targets 1.1721/1.1698 with stop at 1.1949.
Interweek Strategy: Establish buy positions at CMP. Targets 93.05/94.25
US Dollar Index 92.91 91.79 90.00 93.05 94.00 Neutral with stop at 91.49.
Overbought technical conditions prevail. Interweek Strategy: Establish
DOW JONES 34829 34001 32795 35289 36219 Positive buy positions at CMP. Targets 35289 and then aggressive targets at
36219 mark with stop at 32119.
Wealth Creator thru Systematic InvestmentSuresh Rathi Group
DISCLAIMER: This is solely for information of clients of Suresh Rathi Group and does
not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation
for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the
basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and Suresh Rathi
Group, its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for
the consequences of such action taken by you. We have exercised due diligence in
checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in this
recommendation, but Suresh Rathi Group or any of its subsidiaries or associates or
employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to
any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this
recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information.
Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used
to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to
fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might
Suresh Rathi be contrary to recommendations issued by Suresh Rathi Group in the company research
undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical
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analysis. Suresh Rathi Group has based this document on information obtained from
sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Suresh Rathi
Group makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or
Suresh Rathi Group liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are
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Suresh Rathi
Mobile no. 9649654000 based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to
change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in
Email: info@sureshrathi.in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The
Web: www.sureshrathi.com recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for trading purposes.
The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however trading trends and
volumes might vary substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be
subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be
considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or
disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures
provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or
other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past
performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that
investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against
the loss of your entire investment.
POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report)
Disclosure of interest statement – • Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No.
• Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No.
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