ACT Accelerator: Investment Case & Plan - moving from start-up to scale-up 1st meeting of the ACT-A Facilitation Council
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ACT Accelerator: Investment Case & Plan moving from start-up to scale-up 1st meeting of the ACT-A Facilitation Council 10 September 2020
COVID-19 impact | The pandemic endangers all populations and
is undermining all of the Sustainable Development Goals
90% 1.6B -30% +135M
people pushed
healthcare students out of investment in
systems disrupted1 school2 clean energy into poverty by 20304
transition3
Global Health Education Climate Poverty
1. Worldwide disruption of healthcare system due to Covid-19, WHO; 2. World bank; 3. Market intelligence ; 4. Effect of covid-19 only, UN
2Health impact | The pandemic is still progressing & current public
health measures are challenging to maintain overtime
The stringency of NPIs1 is declining everywhere Confirmed cases continue to increase
Stringency index for COVID-19 government response – Cumulative number of cases – as of 29 August 2020,
as of 31 August, Oxford University WHO Dashboard
100 1+ million
252k
50
166k
0
February March April May June July August Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 29 August
Country 1 (LMIC) Country 2 (HIC) Country 3 (HIC) Country 1 (LMIC) Country 2 (HIC) Country 3 (HIC)
1. e.g. Social distancing, lockdowns, mandatory masks, etc.
3ACT-A is a bold structure, driving unprecedented collaboration
Deep engagement
of Co-conveners &
Leads, integrated
workplans &
Access &
budgets, working Allocation
with industry, civil
society, countries
Vaccines
and the entire Working with …
development - Governments
Diagnostics
system - Civil Society
- Industry
Therapeutics
Health
Systems
4ACT-A’s goal: accelerated global access to tools that will end the
acute phase of the pandemic
COVID-19
Transmission
Diagnostics Vaccines
to enable rapid case to protect from disease,
isolation and targeted death and ideally
treatment transmission
Asymptomatic &
Severe disease
mild disease 20%
80% Health systems
to provide PPE to
reduce transmission
and protect health
Therapeutics systems, supply O2 for
Hospital / ICU severe disease, and
to prevent and provide
treatment for all forms overload support the delivery of
of disease safe, basic services
Extreme physical
distancing
Access &
Allocation
Health, social & to ensure global
economic disruption equitable access
to these tools 5ACT-A’s integrated portfolio, global reach and targets
are specifically designed to achieve this goal
Access & Ensure equitable allocation of scarce tools to address severe
Allocation disease globally
Vaccines Therapeutics Diagnostics
Accelerate development of safe Identify new, more effective Rapid identification of game-
and efficacious new vaccines treatments changing new diagnostics
Establish the broadest Catalyse manufacturing, Bring affordable, high-
portfolio of products to procurement and delivery of quality rapid diagnostic
mitigate risk successful candidates tests to market at scale
2 billion doses 245 million 500 million
by the end of 2021 courses by mid-2021 tests by mid-2021
Health Enable effective deployment of tools and safe delivery of health services
Systems Supply PPE & Oxygen to those who need it
6ACT-A has an impressive track record in just 4 months
Access & • Global Allocation Framework finalised
Allocation • Allocation mechanism for COVAX Vaccines drafted
Vaccines Therapeutics Diagnostics
• 200+ candidates being • 1,700+ trials followed, 200+ • 80+ diagnostics followed
followed readouts & 25-30 priorities
under monitoring • 50+ tests under evaluation
• 10 vaccine candidates
already in portfolio • 15-country trials funded • Potentially game-changing
focusing on LMICS rapid test identified
• Broadest portfolio across
geography & tech platforms • First life-saving therapy for • 15+ tests with WHO EUL
severe disease in roll out to
• COVAX Vaccines Facility LMICs (Dexamethasone) • 17+ million tests procured
engaging with 170 countries
• 100+ countries surveyed to identify bottlenecks and capacity gaps
Health
Systems • Systems requirements for tool delivery mapped in 4 of 6 regions
7ACT-A needs 2 major step changes in this crucial period
AS OF SEPT 7
Step change in financing to scale up for New level of coordination for roll out of
impact, $ B rounded scarce vaccines Vaccine doses secured1, M doses by 2021
35 38 2,300 +
Vx ACT-A 2,000
14 ambition
16
1,250
7 Tx
7 1,000 +
6 Dx
6
9 HSC 750
2.7 9
2.0
0.3 0.3
0.1 Domestic Regional Global
Start-up Scale up Total (US, UK, IN, BR)2 (EC3) (COVAX)
(pledges) (needs) budget
1.Based on publicly disclosed agreements 2. Cumulative numbers 3. European Commission Inclusive Vaccines Alliance
SOURCE: IMF Estimates; Press releases; OECD; WHO; World Bank; The Economist Intelligence Unit 8ACT-A Investment Case
9Economic impact | Unprecedented domestic economic stimulus
has helped hedge the crisis but only in some sectors & countries
$US 10 trillion in stimulus unlocked by G20 Economic support is already showing mixed
countries to support businesses & economies outlook
Size of stimulus package – in $B Financial indices – 100=1 Jan-20, as of 31 August 2020
S&P
2,756 100
Hang Seng
Euro stoxx 50
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sept-20
887
577 EU unemployment rate– in % population1
512
173 202 237
29 64 72 +0.6 pt
6.6 7.2
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20
1. Source: OECD Data
10Sectors that depend heavily on international trade &
mobility will not recover with existing government stimulus
2 3
> $8 trillion > $4 trillion Estimated
Dependent on
loss in revenues loss in revenues3
2 revenue losses
mobility & $12T in int’l sectors
global trade
e.g. Travel & Tourism, e.g. exports of Mining, over 2020-2021
Logistic, Aeronautic Crude oil, raw materials
Economic
sector 1 4
Dependent on
domestic > $6 trillion
> $10 trillion
demand
loss in GDP1 loss in GDP4
HIC Income level LIC
Significant investments Limited investments
1 pre-COVID GDP at end of 2021 expected to be $US 152 trillion worldwide. In April, forecasts post-COVID predicted $US 138 trillion. The loss for G20 economies would be ~$US 10 - 13
trillion, IMF, World Bank; 2 2020 Travel & Tourism drop by $US 3.7 trillion, WTTC; 3 International trade is facing contraction that could reach -32%; IMF, WTO, BCG analysis; 4. $US 3 trillion
excluding China. Source: World Bank, WTO, BCG analysis.
11Rapidly reducing severe COVID-19 disease in LIC/LMICs would
save lives and fully restore international mobility & trade and
long term growth
2 3 …restoring international
mobility & trade and delivering
HIC/HMIC LIC/LMIC short term value and long
intl intl term growth to HICs.1
1 4
HIC/HMIC LIC/LMIC
Equitable access to COVID-19
domestic domestic
tools will allow LIC/LMIC
domestic economies to
recover…
Significant investments Limited investments
1. Emerging markets are contributing to 74% of 2020 GDP growth and 30% of international trade; source: WTO, IMF
12The $US 35 B needed to fully fund ACT-A would be paid back
in 36 hours, once international mobility & trade is restored
Total Proportion Immediate Funding
Ask funded gap1 gap2
$38B $3B $15B $35B
Over 18 months
Vaccines $12T
$16B $2B $7B $14B Over 1 month
Therapeutics
$0.7T
Over 36 hours
$7B $0.3B $4B $7B
$36B $35B
Diagnostics
$6B $0.3B $2B $6B
Revenue losses ACT-A
Health Systems of Travel and Tourism Funding gap1
$9B $0.1B $2B3 $9B over 2020-2021
1. Additional critical funding required by end of 2020 to meet ACT-A targets (excl. proportion already funded); 2. As of 7 September 2020;
3. Assuming 25% of total ask in 2020 13ACT-A is the most effective integrated investment to
address COVID-19 globally
Comprehensive public ACT-A is the only mechanism with Vaccines,
Therapeutics, Diagnostics, PPE and O2, the full
health tool box
spectrum of products needed to beat the pandemic
Reduces R&D risks ACT-A has a broad and diverse R&D portfolio
Mitigates operational risks ACT-A co-conveners are experts in implementing
public health measures globally
Unique global reach ACT-A, by design, is the only mechanism that looks
after all people at the same time, everywhere
14ACT-A’s critical path uses accelerated & parallel workstreams
to rapidly achieve its goal
R&D Manufacturing Procurement Delivery
Perform rapid
response Define fair allocation
500+ actionable Procure / reserve scarce framework to achieve
trials followed across procurement
resources equitable access
products
Manufacture products Set up advance commitments
100s of trials deep at risk to shape market &
dived across geographies ensure access for all countries Issue policies to
and sub-populations
Align on portfolio of inform usage
candidates across Define allocation
Regulatory approval products mechanisms based on
and licensure of safe and framework
Prepare for LIC / LMIC
efficacious tools Reach global scale by
country delivery &
expanding and allocating Strike early-access
capacity infrastructure
deals
Launch and
support
In progress End the deployment
acute phase programs
Key achievements of the Sustain
pandemic monitoring
Major milestones
& learning
15ACT-A Immediate Priorities (Sep-Dec 2020)
16Immediate product priorities from Sept – Dec 2020
R&D Manufacturing Procurement Delivery
Add 1-5 Step up country
candidates to Negotiate new deals with preparedness
Vaccines portfolio based manufacturers based on imminent efforts to deploy
on imminent Phase II/II results as soon as
readouts possible
Select molecules Launch 3-5
Evaluate new
for 1st wave of further market
monoclonal Scale up
Therapeutics manufacturing interventions
antibodies and Dexamethasone
capacity for repurposed
antivirals
reservations medicines
Pre-empt
Accelerate Roll out 10s of deployment
evaluation of millions of needs for
Diagnostics
novel antigen- antigen-
diagnostics detecting RDTs detecting RDTs
17Immediate cross-cutting priorities from Sept – Dec 2020
• Operationalise Allocation Mechanism for Vaccines
Access &
Allocation
• Finalise the Allocation Mechanism for Therapeutics
• Launch 10-15 country pilots to test and refine
overall approach
Health
Systems
• Map and match private sector capacity to identified
public needs
18The ACT Accelerator It is the only mechanism explicitly designed to
is the proven, up- achieve:
and-running, COVID- • a simultaneous end to the pandemic
19 exit strategy for everywhere
the world that is • with a concomitant return to health, and
already delivering • a faster and more sustained return to global
returns. mobility, trade & economic activity
ACT-A now needs a step change in support to
massively scale up for impact.
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