Africa Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Hub - African Development Bank
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Africa Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Hub African Development Bank
Acknowledgement This report was commissioned by the Africa NDC Hub Secretariat hosted by the African Development Bank (AfDB). The development of the report was coordinated by Davinah Milenge-Uwella with guidance from Anthony Nyong and input from the Africa NDC Hub Partner Institutions. WS Atkins International led the development of the report and it was authored by Uzoamaka Nwamarah with contributions from Nikki van Dijk, Joanne Parker and Phillipa Ross. Technical review was provided by Steven Wade and Graydon Jeal. Sharon Bruton provided graphics and creative design. The Africa NDC Hub Partner Institutions: © African Development Bank 2018 The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the African Development Bank (AfDB), or its Board of Governors or its Board of Directors or the governments they represent. AfDB and its Board of Directors do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accept no responsibility for any consequence of their use. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term ‘country’ in this document, AfDB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This report is printed using FSC paper stocks and printed by an ISO 14001 accredited printer.
Contents Chapter Pages Executive Summary ii 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Background and Context 1 1.2. Africa NDC Hub Activities Structure 3 1.3. Report Purpose and Structure 5 2. Africa NDC Hub Roadmap 9 2.1. Scenario Planning Approach 9 2.2. Scenarios Development 9 2.3. Scenarios Application 13 3. The Africa NDC Hub Work Programme 35 3.1. Selected Activities 36 3.2. Resource Requirement Bill 41 3.3. Programme Management 42 3.4. Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting 43 4. Conclusion and Recommendations 47 Appendices Appendix A. Africa NDC Hub Work Programme: Long List of Activities 50 Appendix B. Scenario Planning Approach 61 B.1. Scenario Planning 61 B.2. Africa NDC Scenarios Development 62 B.3. Africa NDC Scenario Application 70 Appendix C List of Participants – Africa NDC Hub Partners First Face-to-face Meeting 73 Tables Table 1-1 Overview of identified Africa NDC related gaps 2 Table 2-1 Prioritised Activities by Scenario 10 Table 3-1 Africa NDC Hub 2018-2020 Work Programme 35 Table 3-2 Resource Requirement: Africa NDC Hub Work Programme 41 Table A-1 Long List of Work Programme Activities 50 Table B-1 List of forces 63 Table B-2 Scenario Drivers 64 Table B-3 Scenario Outlines 67 Table B-4 Likelihood of Success in Meeting NDCs 71 Table B-5 Strategies for Meeting NDCs 72 Figures Figure 0-1 Overview of the Africa NDC Hub 2018 to 2020 Work Programme i Figure 1-1 Africa NDC Hub Key Pillars and Focus Areas 1 Figure 1-2 The Paris Agreement Timeline 3 Figure 1-3 Africa NDC Hub Activities Structure 4 Figure 2-1 Country Scenarios Matrix 10
Figure 2-2 Africa NDC Hub Roadmap 30 Figure 3-1 Group Photo: Participants of the First Face-to-face Africa NDC Hub Meeting 35 Figure 3-2 Prioritisation of Work Programme Activities by Hub Partners 36 Figure 3-3 Africa NDC Work Programme and Paris Agreement Timeline 37 Figure 3-4 Adaptation Priority by Sector in Africa NDCs 39 Figure 3-5 Mitigation Priority by Sector in Africa NDCs 40 Figure 3-6 Technical Advisory Committee Organigram 42 Figure B-1 Conceptualisation of the scenario planning process 63 Figure B-2 Scenario Development Matrix 65 Figure B-3 Country scenarios matrix 66 Boxes Box 1 The Africa NDC Hub Partners 34 Box 2 Complimenting the Africa NDC Hub Programme 36
List of Acronyms AfDB African Development Bank ACCF Africa Climate Change Fund AUC African Union Commission COP Conference of Parties ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States GDP Gross Domestic Product GGGI Global Green Growth Institute FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations IIED International Institute for Environment and Development ITC International Trade Centre IsDB Islamic Development Bank LULUCF Land use, land use change and forestry M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification NDC Nationally Determined Contributions NDP National Development Plans NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development SDG Sustainable Development Goal TAC Technical Advisory Committee UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa UN Environment United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WWF World Wildlife Fund 4C Maroc Centre de Compétences Changement Climatique du Maroc
Figure 0-1 Overview of the Africa NDC Hub 2018 to 2020 Work Programme
3 5 7
By 2020 By 2025 By 2030
Countries with 2025 targets Countries submit their third Countries submit their
communicate their second round of round of climate pledges. fourth round of climate
1 climate pledges, while countries with pledges.
2050 targets communicate or update
Climate plans submitted their pledges.
Countries submit their first
round of climate pledges (NDCs). New climate change pledges will then
Some cover the period up to be submitted every 5 years.
20
2025, some up to 2050.
30
20
20
20
20
25
20
26
27
28
29
20
20
20
20
20
21
20
22
23
2 4
20
20
20
15
20
16
20
17
6
18
1 9
Second stocktake
4
Global stocktake
On mitigation, adaptadion and finance.
2
Facilitative dialogue
To take stock of collective
efforts of countries in
relation to the long-term
goal of the agreement and
to inform the preparation of
the next round of pledges.
Country Sectoral Plans
Phase 2
Sector analysis and identification of
priority sector-specific climate
mitigation options and climate
adaptation measures for countries
Annual Flagship Event
Regional thematic forum
bringing key stakeholders
responsible for the successful
development, refining and
implementation of African NDCs
20
20
20
20
18
19
UNFCCC COP 24 Side Event Annual Flagship Event
To showcase the Africa NDC Hub and Regional thematic forum bringing
key knowledge products by partners key stakeholders responsible for
the successful development,
refining and implementation of
Country Guidance African NDCs
Document
Preparation of Guidelines for
aligning NDCs and National
Country Sectoral Plans Phase 1
Sector analysis and identification of priority
Development Plans
sector-specific climate mitigation options
and climate adaptation measures for
countries
Source: Atkins adapted from Carbon Brief
AfricaContributions
Gap Analysis Report African Nationally Determined NDC Hub Roadmap andWork
(NDC) Hub WorkProgramme
Programme i
Executive Summary
Introduction
At the core of achieving the long-term goals of • In line with the Africa NDC Hub Partners NDC
the Paris Agreement1 lie the successful delivery of related programme of activities
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The • Outcomes of the NDC Partnership Africa country
landmark Paris Agreement to combat climate change engagement missions and resulting plans
was reached by the international community at the
twenty-first Conference of Parties (COP 21) to the
Selection of the three activities was made based on
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
the following:
Change (UNFCCC), in Paris, in December 2015.
• The Africa NDC Hub Roadmap prioritisation
Recognising the intrinsic link between the ability
to manage climate change and foster national • Activities that present the most impact when
development goals, the Paris Agreement was carried out together by Hub Partners as a
overwhelmingly endorsed by African countries with collective
all 54 of them signing the Agreement. Furthermore, • Activities that serve as the foundation of NDCs
African countries called on the African Development for subsequent activities to build on and steadily
Bank and partners to support NDC implementation, increase ambition over time
which led to the establishment of the Africa NDC • Activities that need to be carried out in the short
Hub as a platform to provide requisite support for term as well as on an on-going basis considering
the effective implementation of their NDCs within the Paris Agreement timeline
the context of long-term sustainable development.
The Africa NDC Hub was launched in November The Africa NDC Hub Roadmap development utilises
2017 during the Africa Day at COP 23 in Bonn. the scenario planning approach and presents high
level narratives considering how African NDC targets
During the first quarter of 2018, The Africa NDC Hub might be achieved by 2030, taking account of
commissioned a two-phase assignment entailing; multiple drivers. This approach takes cognisance of
the fact that countries are all at different stages of
• Phase One – Gap Analysis on African NDCs
socio-economic development and hence at varied
• Phase Two – Work Programme Development for levels of their NDC implementation. It aims to
the Africa NDC Hub provide the partners of the Africa NDC Hub with a
disciplined method for imagining possible futures by
Table 1–1 provides an overview of the identified considering how driving forces may change in future
African NDC related gaps, an excerpt from the and the interaction between them, as they undertake
African NDCs Gap Analysis Report – the Phase One decisions on their NDC activities to be prioritised and
deliverable; while Figure 0-1 presents the overview implemented in respective African countries.
of the Hub’s three-year Work Programme included as
part of this report – the Phase Two deliverable. In addition to the three selected Work Programme
activities to be implemented by the Hub as a
The three activities constituting the Africa NDC Work collective, the Africa NDC Hub Partners will still carry
Programme were selected following substantive out their other identified NDC related work based on
deliberations by the Africa NDC Hub Partners during their comparative advantages and individual Work
their first face-to-face meeting in Morocco, in April Programmes. Some of these activities make up the
2018, from a long list of seventy-five activities. long list of seventy-five, and it is expected that the
Consistent with the Africa NDC Hub’s three key Roadmap will help inform and guide the Partners on
pillars and two focus areas, this long list of activities further prioritisation and selection of their individual
was drawn up based on the following; activities to be implemented.
• The review of the Gap Analysis Report on African
NDCs and recommended solutions to address the
identified gaps
1. The Paris Agreement wwwunfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php
ii Africa NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme
THE PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS
MITIGATION:
to reinforce the global response to the threat of climate change
by keeping a global temperature rise well below 2 degrees
Celsius (ºC) above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts
to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 oC.
ADAPTATION:
to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and
reduce vulnerability to climate change, with a view to
contributing to sustainable development and ensuring
an adequate adaptation response in the context of the
temperature goal.
Africa NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme 1
1.0 Introduction
1.1.
Background and Context
The Africa Nationally Determined Contributions During the first quarter of 2018, the Africa
(NDC) Hub was established in November 2017 NDC Hub undertook a Gap Analysis study on
as a response to the call by African countries the African NDCs3, with the aim of identifying
for support towards the implementation of the key elements for success as well as barriers
their NDCs. The Hub aims to support African and opportunities to the achievement of NDC
countries with the effective delivery of their targets. The study presents the overall approach
Paris Agreement commitments in accordance and gap analysis findings with respect to the
with their own development priorities, in a review of all the African NDCs and online survey
coordinated manner. responses by African NDC Focal Points on their
implementation progress.4 An overview of the
The Africa NDC Hub serves as a collaborative Africa NDC related gaps identified is presented
platform and resource pool, and it is founded in Table 1-1 on the following page.
on the following three key pillars and two
focus areas2 depicted in Figure 1-1 below.
Figure 1-1 Africa NDC Hub Key Pillars and Focus Areas
Three key pillars:
TO FOSTER LONG TERM TO MOBILISE MEANS OF TO PROMOTE
CLIMATE ACTION IMPLEMENTATION COORDINATION, ADVOCACY
AND PARTNERSHIPS
Focus areas:
ADAPTATION PRIVATE SECTOR ENGAGEMENT
Source: AfDB / Atkins – Gap Analysis Report: African Nationally Determined Contributions
2. The Hub’s activities still encompass those of mitigation too
3. Gap Analysis Report: African Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
4. During the period of January 2016 to January 2018
2 Africa NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme
Table 1-1: Overview of identified Africa NDC related gaps
Progress being made towards NDC
Theme Areas requiring additional effort
Implementation
NDC Development
Signature and ratification of the Paris Agreement
• All 54 African countries have signed the Paris
Participation • 9 countries are yet to ratify the Paris Agreement
Agreement and 45 have ratified it
in UNFCCC
processes NDC submission
• 44 African Countries have submitted their NDCs • 10 countries are yet to submit their NDCs to the
to the UNFCCC UNFCCC
• Despite the limited guidance on structure by the Important thematic issues not fully covered by all
UNFCCC and limited time for development, many NDCs reviewed include:
African countries have submitted their NDCs • Strategic alignment with national development
plans and wider sustainable development goals
Composition
• Identification of opportunities for maximising
of NDCs
co-benefits from the implementation of well-
coordinated economy wide activities
• Description of monitoring, review and reporting
processes of climate action
NDC Implementation
• African countries are making some progress with The full potential of NDCs as resource mobilisation
respect to accessing climate finance – although tools are yet to be realised, and the following themes
accessed funds are not yet commensurate to have been identified in this regard:
the needs, there has been an increase in the
• Level of financial considerations and investment
awareness and successful proposal submission
plans
to international and regional climate funds (e.g.
the Green Climate Fund with Africa having 22 • Reliable data sources and comprehensive sector
projects in the portfolio, followed by Asia Pacific analysis
Resource 21, Latin America and Caribbean 11 and Eastern • Targeted approach: having a good understanding
mobilisation Europe 45; and Africa Climate Change Fund of the functions of different actors, especially the
with an increase in proposal submissions from private sector, in the climate finance landscape and
362 in the first call to more than a thousand in the timing processes of climate change funds and
the second call for proposals), an earmarking national budgets
of resources for climate action in national
budgets (e.g. Ethiopia and Ghana), as well as
the establishment of national climate funds (e.g.
South Africa’s Green Fund and Rwanda’s Green
Fund – FONERWA)
• In many African countries climate change is • Continued strengthening of institutional
recognised as an important national issue with frameworks including:
the development of climate change strategies »» Appropriate delegation of authority with
and action plans, including nomination of line sufficient coordination and collaboration
ministries for development and implementation platforms for inter-ministerial engagement
of climate related policies and regulations
Governance »» Robust systems and processes for monitoring,
structures and reporting and verification (MRV) of emissions
processes and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of
adaptation, climate finance and technical
support outcomes, as well as open data and
information sharing platforms which promote
accountability and transparency
• Improvements in associated policies and legislation
Source: Atkins – Review of African country NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC and Online Survey of African NDC Focal PointsAfrica NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme 3
Figure 1-2 The Paris Agreement Timeline
3 5 7
By 2020 By 2025 By 2030
Countries with 2025 targets Countries submit their third Countries submit their
communicate their second round of round of climate pledges. fourth round of climate
1 climate pledges, while countries with pledges.
2050 targets communicate or update
Climate plans submitted their pledges.
Countries submit their first
round of climate pledges (NDCs). New climate change pledges will then
Some cover the period up to be submitted every 5 years.
20
2025, some up to 2050.
30
20
20
20
20
25
20
26
27
28
29
20
20
20
20
20
21
20
22
23
2 4
20
20
20
15
20
16
20
17
6
18
1 9
Second stocktake
4
Global stocktake
On mitigation, adaptadion and finance.
2
Facilitative dialogue
To take stock of collective
efforts of countries in
relation to the long-term
goal of the agreement and
to inform the preparation of
the next round of pledges.
Source: Atkins adapted from Carbon Brief
Responding with the appropriate solutions • Review of the Gap Analysis Report
to these identified gaps in a timely and on African NDCs and recommended
coordinated manner while considering the Paris solutions to address the identified gaps
Agreement Timeline (Figure 1-2), will enhance • Africa NDC Hub Partners’ respective
the effectiveness of these solutions. The Paris NDC activities envisaged to be
Agreement timeline and ratchet mechanism implemented as part of individual work
above is designed to steadily increase ambition programmes
over time, ensuring that the world reaches net
zero emissions in the second half of the century • Outcomes of the NDC Partnership Africa
and keeps temperature rise well below 2oC. in-country dialogues and resulting NDC
action plans
1.2. This long list of activities, including those of
Africa NDC Hub Activities programme management to be led by the Hub’s
Structure Secretariat, is structured as presented in Figure
1-3 according to the outputs they feed into,
In accordance with the purpose of establishing followed by outcomes, purpose and ultimate
the Africa NDC Hub, and consistent with goal. Appendix A lists all the seventy-five
its three key pillars and two focus areas, activities in full under each output.
a long list of seventy-five proposed activities
for implementation was produced based
on the following:4 Africa NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme
Africa NDC Hub Activities Structure
GOAL
TO MEET THE LONG-TERM MITIGATION AND
ADAPTATIONGOAL OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT
SPECIFIC PURPOSE
TO HELP AFRICAN COUNTRIES ACHIEVE THEIR NDC
TARGETS BY 2030
EXPECTED OUTCOMES
AND OUTPUTS*
OUTCOME 1: OUTCOME 2: OUTCOME 3:
LONG TERM CLIMATE ACTION INCREASED MOBILISATION OF INCREASED ACHIEVEMENT OF NDC
FOSTERED BASED ON COUNTRY DRIVEN MEANS OF IMPLEMENTATION AND IMPLEMENTATION ADVOCACY
PROCESSES ALIGNED WITH THE PARIS TRANSPARENCY OBJECTIVES WITHIN THE AFRICAN
AGREEMENT, SUSTAINABLE CONTEXT AND STRONG
DEVELOPMENT GOALS (SDGs) AND THE OUPUTS: PARTNERSHIPS
2.1 PIPELINE OF BANKABLE PROJECTS WITH
AFRICA AGENDA 2063 ASSOCIATED FUNDING OBTAINED OUPUTS:
OUPUTS: 2.2 TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROVIDED AND 3.1 ROBUST DIALOGUE, COMMUNICATION AND
1.1 STRENGTHENED CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES AND CAPACITY OF NATIONAL STAKEHOLDERS (STATE INFORMATION SHARING CHANNELS SET-UP
STRATEGIES AND NON-STATE) 3.2 MULTI-LEVEL PARTNERSHIPS ESTABLISHED
1.2 ROBUST NDCS ALIGNED WITH NATIONAL/REGIONAL 2.3 REQUISITE TECHNOLOGIES INSTALLED WITH AND ENGAGEMENT PLATFORMS STRENGTHENED
DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND SDGS MRVs SYSTEMS ESTABLISHED AND MAINTAINED
1.3 RESEARCH AND ANALYTICAL WORK TO GUIDE NDC
DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION
UNDERPINNED BY ROBUST PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT BY HUBS SECRETARIAT
*The suggested 75 activities are given under each output as well as programme managemet as presented in Annex A
Figure 1-3 Africa NDC Hub Activities StructureAfrica NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme 5
GOAL – the overarching objective of the Africa Furthermore, they will provide a strengthened
NDC Hub Work Programme is to contribute to platform for evidence based learning, advocacy
achieving the shared vision of the international and exchange of knowledge and experiences.
community in meeting the long-term mitigation
and adaptation goals of the Paris Agreement. AFRICA NDC HUB SECRETARIAT AND
PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT – the activities of
SPECIFIC PURPOSE – the specific objective of the Hub will be coordinated through a Secretariat
the Africa NDC Hub Work Programme is to help hosted at the Climate Change and Green Growth
African countries to achieve their set NDC targets. Department of the AfDB. All the Hub partners
are expected to submit their NDC related work
Outcome 1: Long term climate action fostered – to the Hub Secretariat with the aim of leveraging
activities under this Outcome are geared towards each other’s comparative advantage and for
supporting countries in meeting their contributions coordination purposes. The Secretariat will be
towards the global climate goals in a long-term responsible for monitoring and reporting on the
and sustainable manner. Country driven long activities of the Hub. It will be led by a Coordinator.
term low carbon and climate resilient strategies
underpin the transformative potential of the Paris It is important that sequencing of activities should
Agreement. They catalyse the process by which be considered for the achievement of the three
decision-makers in key sectors of the economy outlined outcomes, given that activities carried out
re-think policy, development, and technology under one theme can affect outcomes in another.
pathways, and offer the opportunity to facilitate
the alignment of national action and development The urgency of action required to address climate
plans with the Paris Agreement goals. change issues not least in Africa and the role of
NDCs in this regard, coupled with the need to
Activities here will inform the mobilisation efforts maximise the effectiveness of finite resources
for the means of implementation for deriving and the benefits of working together as a unified
Outcome 2, as well as shape the narrative on group at the regional level, has resulted in the
advocacy and stakeholder engagement for development of a Roadmap and streamlined
Outcome 3. Work Programme for the Hub.
Outcome 2: Increased mobilisation of means 1.3.
of implementation and transparency – finance,
technology and capacity building are critical Report Purpose and Structure
enablers for reaching the goals of the Paris
Agreement. Africa requires adequate and The purpose of this report is to present a Roadmap
predictable means of implementation to maximise and three-year Work Programme covering the
the opportunities provided by climate change. period 2018 to 2020 for the Africa NDC Hub as it
The activities here, will endeavour to help African aims to support African countries in their efforts to
countries realise the full potential of NDCs as successfully implement their NDCs.
resource mobilisation tools. They will help promote
The Work Programme is for the three-year
the development of robust systems, processes or
period of 2018 to 2020.
tools as well as open data and information sharing
platforms which will promote accountability and
The remainder of this report is structured as
transparency.
follows:
Outcome 3: Increased achievement of NDC
• Chapter 2 sets out the proposed Roadmap for
implementation advocacy objectives and strong
the African NDC Hub,
partnerships – activities here will promote the
development of strong partnerships and will work • Chapter 3 presents the Africa NDC 2018 to
with key stakeholders to ensure that the Africa 2020 Work Programme, and
NDC Hub’s interventions are part of the global • Chapter 4 concludes the report and provides a
advocacy drive to promote urgent, effective set of recommendations.
and equitable responses to climate change.
5. The Phase One deliverable being the Gap Analysis Report on African NDCsKenya Photo by Kaniz Sheikh
CHAPTER 2 Africa NDC Hub Roadmap
Darling Wind Farm Photo by Warrenski (www.flickr.com/photos/warrenski)
Africa NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme 9
2.0 Africa NDC Hub Roadmap
This section presents high level narratives on 2.2.
how the Africa NDC Hub might support African
countries in achieving their NDC targets by
Scenarios Development
2030, taking into account multiple drivers. The
To create meaningful scenarios, the two
approach is non-prescriptive as it recognises
drivers selected to form the x and y axes of
that African countries are at different stages
the scenarios matrix represents drivers having
of socio-economic development and hence at
a high degree of impact and having a high
varied levels of their NDC implementation.
level of uncertainty from now until 2030. The
identification of these high impact and high
It aims to provide the partners of the Africa
uncertainty drivers was done during a ranking
NDC Hub with a disciplined method for
exercise by the project team, which in turn was
imagining possible futures by considering how
informed by the results of the online survey
driving forces may change in future and the
completed by the Africa NDC Focal Points,
interaction between them, as they undertake
institutional experience and knowledge; and
decisions on NDC activities to be prioritised and
expert judgement.
implemented in respective African countries.
As a result of the ranking exercise, the
2.1. drivers Climate Finance and Governance
Scenario Planning Approach were identified as having the highest level
of impact and highest level of uncertainty.
The Roadmap development utilises the scenario The resulting 2x2 Country Scenarios Matrix
planning approach which is a particularly useful is shown in Figure 2-1 below. Appendix A
way of considering the complex interaction provides detailed information on the steps
between socio-economic, physical and political taken in the scenario development exercise.
driving forces which will determine the success
of African countries in meeting their NDCs and The availability and level of climate finance
identifying action required to support them. (both public and private sector) is likely to
The approach helps to identify actions to fill significantly affect the ability of African
gaps identified in the gap analysis, particularly countries to undertake a low carbon, climate
highlighting ‘no- or low-regrets’ activities in resilient development pathway which, in
the context of socio-economic, political and turn, will have a significant impact on the
environmental uncertainty between now achievement of NDCs. Similarly, the existence,
and 2030. Appendix A provides the detailed strength and coordination of state institutions
explanation on the scenario planning approach. at a range of scales (i.e. governance) is critical
to the achievement of NDCs but is highly
uncertain over a ten-year horizon due to the
nature of political cycles.10 Africa NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme Africa NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme 11
Figure 2-1 Country Scenarios Matrix
Scenario 4: Strong governance, Scenario 1: Strong governance,
scarce climate finance abundant climate finance
Whilst sources of climate finance are scarce, Economies at all scales are strong and investment
strong governance and effective mainstreaming for climate action is available from a range of
of climate change considerations in policy sources, including international, domestic and
4 1
making maximises the amount of domestic private sector funds. Governmental institutions
funds available to support climate action. The are effective, well connected and trusted by
focus is on maximising return on investment citizens who feel that government acts in their
through achieving co-benefits in terms interests. People are concerned about the
of climate change mitigation, resilience long-term condition of the environment and
and development goals. Social values are sustainability is high on the political agenda.
community-oriented, and close relationships Climate change is mainstreamed across policy
between national and local government making and conflicting legislative drivers have
effectively channel money to the community generally been removed, creating an enabling
level. Investment is focused on infrastructure environment for the development of climate
and technologies which encourages resource- resilient infrastructure. As a result, countries
use efficiency, self-reliance and regional can access and leverage significant amounts of
development. Sustainable land and water climate finance and target it effectively, ensuring
management practices are heavily promoted maximum mitigation and adaptation benefit from
and widely applied and small-scale renewable investments. African governments are investing
energy generation is common. in large scale renewable energy generation
projects and are supporting sustainable land
management (agriculture and forestry) initiatives
across large areas of the region.
Scenario 2: Weak governance,
Scenario 3: Weak governance, scarce abundant climate finance
climate finance
Governmental institutions are inefficient
The global economy is performing poorly and poorly coordinated which constrains the
and there is little climate finance available performance of national and local economies
to African countries. Weak coordination and limits the availability of domestic funds for
mechanisms in government institutions limits climate action. However, the global economy
investments in low-emissions technologies is reasonably buoyant and climate finance
or resilient infrastructure. There is little scope is available from external sources including
for longer term planning or large scale international funds and the private sector.
infrastructure as focus is on meeting short term Although the take-up of small scale renewable
needs. Climate change is generally not high energy generation, water resource initiatives
on the agenda nevertheless, switches from and sustainable agricultural and forestry
current technologies to low-tech sustainable
technologies will occur where the latter are
cheaper to save money and improve the quality
of life. This grass-roots action is uncoordinated
3 2 practices is high, activity is uncoordinated and
the full climate change mitigation and resilience
benefits of investments are not always realised.
and the benefits from economies of scale or
collective purchasing power are not realised.12 Africa NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme
Traffic interchange in Constantine, Algeria. North Africa
Photo by Leonid AndronovAfrica NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme 13
2.3. led by the private or public sector). When both
governance is weak and finance is scarce, there
Table 2 - 1
Scenario Application are few strategies available to meet NDCs and
Country scenarios are not predictions of
emissions reductions are likely to be due to Prioritised activities
uncoordinated action at the scale of individuals.
the future but viewed together, they start by scenario
to put a plausible boundary on the range of
Given that countries best described by Scenario
directions that the future may take to inform
1 have the highest likelihood of success in
decision making today. They provide a range
terms of meeting their existing NDC targets
of insights to inform the selection of activities
but also the most potential for achieving more
for implementation by the Africa NDC
ambitious targets in future, It is envisaged
Hub Partners.
that the activities of the Africa NDC Hub will
aim to promote the best practices for NDC
This is a high-level exercise being carried out
implementation in African countries such
at the supra-national scale: the Africa NDC
that their NDC actions are strengthened and
Hub covers the 54 African countries, and it is
countries that fall within Scenarios 2, 3 and 4,
recognised that each African country is at a
move to Scenario 1 over time.
different stage of addressing climate change,
and will therefore have different starting points
Table 2-1 presents a non-exhaustive list of
and trajectories towards meeting their NDC
identified options and prioritised activities6 by
targets. Nevertheless, using the scenarios, it is
country scenario (see Appendix A for full list
possible to classify countries in terms of their
of activities ). For example, in scenarios where
current position with regards to governance and
successful delivery of NDCs relies on local or
access to climate finance. The starting point for
regional action, activities which strengthen
each country will help identify options and then
regional institutions or improve access to
prioritise activities required to achieve emissions
decentralised funding are priorities. In
reductions and climate resilience aligned with
scenarios where finance is scarce, activities
National Development Plans (NDPs).
which maximise the return on investment
through realising multiple mitigation,
Scenario 1 countries have the widest range
adaptation and development benefits are
of options available to them. Options exist
prioritised. In some cases, activities may be
at a range of scales (from large scale centrally
priorities under multiple scenarios but the
funded options to smaller scale, decentralised
justification may be different. These activities
options ) and involving both the private and
could be considered low-regrets activities as
public sector due to existence of strong,
they have benefits across a range of scenarios.
coordinated governmental institutions and
more abundant climate finance. The range
Figure 2-2, the Africa NDC Hub Roadmap,
of potential strategies for meeting NDCs
constitute those low-regret activities that
reduces when either governance is weak or
have benefits across the range of all the four
climate finance is scarce and the focus is on
country scenarios.
grass-roots or community level options (either
6. Appendix A provides the long list of seventy-five suggested work programme activities (described in
section 1.2. above) with prioritised activities by country scenario highlightedAvailable Options Prioritised Activities*
Country Scenario Timeline
Africa NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme 15 16 Africa NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme
*Non-exhaustive list * See Appendix A for details on Outcomes and Outputs including rationale behind prioritisation.
Outcome 1 - Long term climate action fostered based on country driven processes aligned with
the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Africa Agenda 2063
• National governments are successful in applying to international climate funds to secure finance –
1: Strong governance, significant level of understanding of donor requirements and how to satisfy them
Output 1.2 - Robust NDCs aligned with National Development Plans and SDGs
abundant climate finance • Government institutions leverage private sector funding through preparation of robust business cases
Activities:
2018 1.2.3 – Align NDCs with National Development Plans within the context of Sustainable Development Goals
• Micro-finance schemes to enable community scale action
2020 1.2.4 Refine and apply process methodology for NDCs and SDGs mainstreaming in National Development planning
• Clear alignment between national development plans and NDCs
2019 1.2.6 – Develop strategic framework for natural resource management and NDC implementation
• Effective leveraging of available domestic funding by accounting for multiple benefits
(adaptation, mitigation, development) 2019 1.2.7 – Promote enhanced renewable energy and energy efficiency coherence in NDCs Table 2 - 1
• Large scale, centralised infrastructure projects e.g. large scale renewable energy generation, low carbon Output 1.3 – Research and analytical work to guide NDC development and implementation
mass transit
• Government support (including subsidies) for sustainable land management practices at scale
Activities: Prioritised activities
2018 1.3.1 – Develop a methodological framework for NDC development and revision with the aim of improving ambition over time
• Widespread retrofitting of buildings to improve resilience and reduce emissions 2019, 2020 1.3.2 – Conduct detailed sector analysis for the identification of mitigation options and adaptation measures
by scenario contd ...
• Central government investment/support for low-carbon technologies including funding for R&D, 2019 1.3.8 – Conduct investor risk assessment
large-scale pilot projects
2020 1.3.7 – Support countries refine and disaggregate NDC mitigation and adaptation targets
• Close links between universities and policy makers, well-established channels for knowledge sharing
Outcome 2 – Increased mobilisation of means of implementation and transparency
Output 2.1 – Pipeline of bankable projects with associated funding obtained
Activities:
2018, 2020 2.1.1 – Develop NDC investment plans
2019 2.1.2 – Conduct study/training on the allocation of national budgets to climate change and climate screening of national budgets
2018 2.1.6 – Advance the unlocking of innovative financing approaches and private sector financing including risk analysis and barrier removal
2018 2.1.7 – Mobilisation of resources from climate funds for national readiness plans
Output 2.2 – Technical assistance provided and capacity of national stakeholders (state and non-state) enhanced to
successfully develop and implement NDCs
Activities:
2018, 2019, 2020 2.2.3 – Provide technical assistance and training to national actors (public and private) on direct access, blending, catalysing and
coordinating of climate finance / climate change funds
2019, 2020 2.2.7 – Facilitate sector specific training on technologies and approaches e.g. on climate smart agriculture, conservation agriculture,
landscape restoration, REDD+, bioenergy and food security rapid appraisal, agriculture
2019 2.2.9 – Conduct capacity building programs on sustainable finance for private sector organisations including trade related SMEs and
financial institutions - the Trade for Sustainable Development and Ethical Fashion Initiative will jointly participate
Output 2.3 – Requisite technologies installed with MRV/M&E systems established and maintained
Activities:
2019, 2020 2.3.4 - Establish integrated systems for monitoring and verifying mitigation actions, as well as monitoring and evaluation systems for
adaptation and climate finance
Outcome 3 – Increased achievement of NDC implementation advocacy objectives within the
African context and strong partnerships
Output 3.1 – Robust dialogue, communication and information sharing channels set up
Activities:
2018 3.1.1 – Promote political will and leadership
3.1.2 – Convene regional meetings, flagship programmes and dialogue workshops, to facilitate knowledge exchange and south-south
2018, 2019, 2020
learning
2019 3.1.11 – Establish innovation platforms to facilitate technology development and transfer
Output 3.2 – Multi-level partnerships established and engagement platforms strengthened
Activities:
3.2.5 – Partner with and mobilise trade and investment support institutions to promote green economy activities and contribute with
2019
specific funding products and services
3.2.8 – Establish national multi-stakeholder engagement platforms (with a focus on non-state actor participation) to identify untapped
2018
mitigation and adaptation opportunitiesAvailable Options Prioritised Activities*
Country Scenario Timeline
*Non-exhaustive list * See Appendix A for details on Outcomes and Outputs including rationale behind prioritisation.
Outcome 1 - Long term climate action fostered based on country driven processes aligned with
the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Africa Agenda 2063
• Private sector entities are engaged and provide resources for climate action
2: Weak governance, • Local scale infrastructure projects that enable self-sufficiency and low carbon lifestyle e.g. small-scale
Output 1.2 - Robust NDCs aligned with National Development Plans and SDGs
abundant climate finance renewable energy generation, local education and awareness raising programmes, sustainable agriculture Activities:
and forestry programmes 2018 1.2.3 – Align NDCs with National Development Plans within the context of Sustainable Development Goals
• Non-state actors leverage funding from other private sector entities through preparation of robust 2020 1.2.4 Refine and apply process methodology for NDCs and SDGs mainstreaming in National Development planning (UNDP)
business cases
Output 1.3 – Research and analytical work to guide NDC development and implementation
Activities: Table 2 - 1
2018 1.3.1 – Develop a methodological framework for NDC development and revision with the aim of improving ambition over time
2020 1.3.2 – Conduct detailed sector analysis for the identification of mitigation options and adaptation measures Prioritised activities
2020 1.3.7 – Support countries refine and disaggregate NDC mitigation and adaptation targets
by scenario contd ...
Outcome 2 - Increased mobilisation of means of implementation and transparency
Output 2.1 – Pipeline of bankable projects with associated funding obtained
Activities:
2018, 2020 2.1.1 – Develop NDC investment plans
2019 2.1.4 – Establish decentralised climate finance models (IIED)
2.1.6 – Advance the unlocking of innovative financing approaches and private sector financing including risk analysis and barrier
2018
removal
Output 2.2 – Technical assistance provided and capacity of national stakeholders (state and non-state) enhanced to
successfully develop and implement NDCs
Activities:
2.2.3 – Provide technical assistance and training to national actors (public and private) on direct access, blending, catalysing and
2018, 2019, 2020
coordinating of climate finance / climate change funds
2.2.9 – Conduct capacity building programs on sustainable finance for private sector organisations including trade related SMEs and
2019
financial institutions - the Trade for Sustainable Development and Ethical Fashion Initiative will jointly participate
2.3.4 - Establish integrated systems for monitoring and verifying mitigation actions, as well as monitoring and evaluation systems for
2020
adaptation and climate finance
Outcome 3 – Increased achievement of NDC implementation advocacy objectives within the
African context and strong partnerships
Output 3.1 – Robust dialogue, communication and information sharing channels set up
Activities:
2018 3.1.1 – Promote political will and leadership
3.1.2 – Convene regional meetings, flagship programmes and dialogue workshops, to facilitate knowledge exchange and south-
2018, 2019, 2020 south learning
Output 3.2 – Multi-level partnerships established and engagement platforms strengthened
Activities:
3.2.1 – Strategic mapping of stakeholders and key actors e.g. Hub Partners, private sector actors, climate change funds, national level
2018 (line ministries/agencies), parliamentarians, women and youth
3.2.8 – Establish national multi-stakeholder engagement platforms (with a focus on non-state actor participation) to identify
2018 untapped mitigation and adaptation opportunitiesAvailable Options Prioritised Activities*
Country Scenario Timeline
*Non-exhaustive list * See Appendix A for details on Outcomes and Outputs including rationale behind prioritisation.
Outcome 1 - Long term climate action fostered based on country driven processes aligned with
the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Africa Agenda 2063
• Community scale infrastructure projects e.g. small-scale renewables, local sustainable transport initiatives
3: Weak governance, scarce • Some emissions reductions may be achieved through individual switching to low carbon energy
Output 1.1 – Strengthened climate change frameworks
climate finance generation/transport Activities:
• Private entities including households 1.1.4 – Identify opportunities for maximising climate change co-benefits from the implementation of well-coordinated economy wide
2018
activities
• Strong coordination mechanism established across any existing designated authorities and focal points of
climate funds to maxim Output 1.2 - Robust NDCs aligned with National Development Plans and SDGs
Activities:
Table 2 - 1
2018 1.2.3 – Align NDCs with National Development Plans within the context of Sustainable Development Goals
2020 1.2.4 – Refine and apply process methodology for NDCs and SDGs mainstreaming in National Development planning
Prioritised activities
Output 1.3 – Research and analytical work to guide NDC development and implementation
Activities: by scenario contd ...
2018 1.3.1 – Develop a methodological framework for NDC development and revision with the aim of improving ambition over time
2019, 2020 1.3.2 – Conduct detailed sector analysis for the identification of mitigation options and adaptation measures
2020 1.3.5 – Assess the incremental cost for climate resilient actions
2020 1.3.7 – Support countries refine and disaggregate NDC mitigation and adaptation targets
Outcome 2 - Increased mobilisation of means of implementation and transparency
Output 2.1 – Pipeline of bankable projects with associated funding obtained
Activities:
2018, 2020 2.1.1 – Develop NDC investment plans
Output 2.2 – Technical assistance provided and capacity of national stakeholders (state and non-state) enhanced to
successfully develop and implement NDCs
Activities:
2.2.3 – Provide technical assistance and training to national actors (public and private) on direct access, blending, catalysing and
2018, 2019, 2020
coordinating of climate finance / climate change funds
Output 2.3 – Requisite technologies installed with MRV/M&E systems established and maintained
Activities:
2.3.1 – Support the instalment and maintenance of required technology for advancing NDC implementation, taking account of
2019, 2020
indigenous technologies and south-south technology development transfer
2.3.4 - Establish integrated systems for monitoring and verifying mitigation actions, as well as monitoring and evaluation systems for
2020
adaptation and climate finance2.3.7 – Develop tools and capacities for investment planning in priority sectors
2019 2.3.7 – Develop tools and capacities for investment planning in priority sectors
Outcome 3 – Increased achievement of NDC implementation advocacy objectives within the
African context and strong partnerships
Output 3.1 – Robust dialogue, communication and information sharing channels set up
Activities:
2018 3.1.1 – Promote political will and leadership
3.1.2 – Convene regional meetings, flagship programmes and dialogue workshops, to facilitate knowledge exchange and south-
2018, 2019, 2020
south learning
Output 3.2 – Multi-level partnerships established and engagement platforms strengthened
Activities:
3.2.1 – Strategic mapping of stakeholders and key actors e.g. Hub Partners, private sector actors, climate change funds, national level
2018 (line ministries/agencies), parliamentarians, women and youth
2019, 2020 3.2.3 – Promote and support south-south cooperation and learning
3.2.4 – Mobilise state and non-state actors towards mobilising low risk approaches to bridging policy and operational gaps for NDC
2018
implementation - e.g. building on the UN Environment facilitated Ecosystems Based Adaptation for Food Security Assembly
3.2.8 – Establish national multi-stakeholder engagement platforms (with a focus on non-state actor participation) to identify
2018 untapped mitigation and adaptation opportunities
2018 3.2.10 – Support member state readiness towards NDC implementationAvailable Options Prioritised Activities*
Country Scenario Timeline Africa NDC Hub Roadmap and Work Programme 23
*Non-exhaustive list * See Appendix A for details on Outcomes and Outputs including rationale behind prioritisation.
Outcome 1 - Long term climate action fostered based on country driven processes aligned with the
Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Africa Agenda 2063
• Clear alignment between development goals and NDCs
4: Strong governance, scarce • Effective leveraging of available domestic funding by accounting for multiple benefits (adaptation,
Output 1.1 – Strengthened climate change frameworks
climate finance mitigation, development) Activities:
• Community scale infrastructure projects e.g. small-scale renewables, local sustainable transport initiatives 2018 1.1.4 – Identify opportunities for maximising climate change co-benefits from the implementation of well-coordinated economy wide
Micro-finance schemes to enable community scale action activities
Output 1.2 - Robust NDCs aligned with National Development Plans and SDGs
• Support (subsidies) for local scale sustainable land management practices
Activities:
2018 1.2.3 – Align NDCs with National Development Plans within the context of Sustainable Development Goals
2020 1.2.4 – Refine and apply process methodology for NDCs and SDGs mainstreaming in National Development planning
2020 1.2.5 – Develop regional approaches and concrete Action Plans to facilitate NDC implementation
Output 1.3 – Research and analytical work to guide NDC development and implementation
Activities:
2018 1.3.1 – Develop a methodological framework for NDC development and revision with the aim of improving ambition over time
2020 1.3.2 – Conduct detailed sector analysis for the identification of mitigation options and adaptation measures
2020 1.3.5 – Assess the incremental cost for climate resilient actions (UNECA)
2020 1.3.7 – Support countries refine and disaggregate NDC mitigation and adaptation targets
Outcome 2 - Increased mobilisation of means of implementation and transparency
Output 2.1 – Pipeline of bankable projects with associated funding obtained
Activities:
2018, 2020 2.1.1 – Develop NDC investment plans
2019 2.1.4 – Establish decentralised climate finance models
Output 2.2 – Technical assistance provided and capacity of national stakeholders (state and non-state) enhanced to
successfully develop and implement NDCs
Activities:
2.2.3 – Provide technical assistance and training to national actors (public and private) on direct access, blending, catalysing and
2018, 2019, 2020
coordinating of climate finance / climate change funds
2.2.7 – Facilitate sector specific training on technologies and approaches e.g. on climate smart agriculture, conservation agriculture,
2019, 2020
landscape restoration, REDD+, bioenergy and food security rapid appraisal, agriculture
2019, 2020 2.2.10 – Conduct sub-regional capacity building sessions on sectors and NDCs
Output 2.3 – Requisite technologies installed with MRV/M&E systems established and maintained
Activities:
2.3.1 – Support the instalment and maintenance of required technology for advancing NDC implementation, taking account of indigenous
2019, 2020 technologies and south-south technology development transfer
2.3.4 - Establish integrated systems for monitoring and verifying mitigation actions, as well as monitoring and evaluation systems for
2020
adaptation and climate finance
2019 2.3.7 – Develop tools and capacities for investment planning in priority sectors
Outcome 3 – Increased achievement of NDC implementation advocacy objectives within the African
context and strong partnerships
Output 3.1 – Robust dialogue, communication and information sharing channels set up
Activities:
2018 3.1.1 – Promote political will and leadership
3.1.2 – Convene regional meetings, flagship programmes and dialogue workshops, to facilitate knowledge exchange and south-south
2018, 2019, 2020 learning
Output 3.2 – Multi-level partnerships established and engagement platforms strengthened
Activities:
2019, 2020 3.2.3 – Promote and support south-south cooperation and learning
3.2.4 – Mobilise state and non-state actors towards mobilising low risk approaches to bridging policy and operational gaps for NDC
2018
implementation- e.g. building on the UN Environment facilitated Ecosystems Based Adaptation for Food Security Assembly
3.2.8 – Establish national multi-stakeholder engagement platforms (with a focus on non-state actor participation) to identify untapped
2018
mitigation and adaptation opportunities (WWF)2030
Scenario 4: Strong Scenario 1: Strong AFRICAN NDC TARGETS
governance, scarce governance,
climate finance abundant climate
finance
Governance Climate finance Governance Climate finance
OUTCOME 1 OUTCOME 2 OUTCOME 3
Governance Climate finance Governance Climate finance
Scenario 2: Weak
Scenario 3: Weak governance,
governance, scarce abundant climate
climate finance finance
2020 1.2.3 2.1.1 3.1.2
Continued exercise to align NDCs Develop NDC investment plan Convene regional meetings,
with National Development Plans flagship programmes and
within the context of Sustainable 2.2.3 dialogue workshops, to
Development Goals Continued technical assistance facilitate knowledge exchange
and training to national actors and south-south learning
1.2.4 (public and private) on direct
Refine and apply process access, blending, catalysing and
methodology for NDCs and coordinating of climate finance /
OUTCOME 3 OUTCOME 2 OUTCOME 1 SDGs mainstreaming in National climate change funds
Development planning
1.3.2 2.3.4 - Establish integrated
Continued detailed sector analysis systems for monitoring and
for the identification of mitigation verifying mitigation actions, as
options and adaptation measures well as monitoring and
2019 evaluation systems for
1.3.7 adaptation and climate finance
Support countries refine and
disaggregate NDC mitigation and
3.1.2 2.1.1 1.3.2
adaptation targets
Convene regional meetings, Develop NDC investment plan Conduct detailed sector analysis
flagship programmes and for the identification of mitigation
dialogue workshops, to facilitate 2.3.4 options and adaptation measures
knowledge exchange and Establish integrated systems for
south-south learning monitoring and verifying OUTCOME 1 OUTCOME 2 OUTCOME 3
mitigation actions, as well as
monitoring and evaluation systems
for adaptation and climate finance
2018 1.2.3 2.1.1 3.1.1
Develop guidelines to align NDCs Develop NDC investment plan Promote political will and leadership
with National Development Plans
2015 within the context of Sustainable 2.2.3 3.1.2
Development Goals Provide technical assistance and Convene regional meetings,
FROM COP 21
training to national actors (public flagship programmes and
1.3.1 and private) on direct access, dialogue workshops, to facilitate
Initiate discussions around blending, catalysing and knowledge exchange and
methodological choices and coordinating of climate finance / south-south learning
frameworks for NDC revision with climate change funds
3.2.8 Establish national
the aim of improving ambition
2.3.4 - Establish integrated multi-stakeholder engagement
over time
systems for monitoring and platforms (with a focus on
Figure 2-2: Africa NDC Hub Roadmap verifying mitigation actions, as
well as monitoring and evaluation
systems for adaptation and
non-state actor participation) to
identify untapped mitigation and
adaptation opportunities
Prioritised Activities - those that have benefits across the range of all the four country scenarios climate financeMenengai Geothermal Project Photo courtesy of African Development Bank Group Projects
You can also read
