ASEAN Strategy Virtual ASEAN Conference 2020 - Macquarie Group
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Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Virtual ASEAN Conference 2020
Jayden Vantarakis
Macquarie Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd
+65 6601 0916
Jayden.Vantarakis@macquarie.com
August 2020
In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular
needs of the reader. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to
consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular
investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. Please see disclaimer.
Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Pivotal themes and questions for ASEAN
• Reopening or further lockdowns?
• Continuing to mitigate a recession with stimulus, how much can be done?
• Will the spill over of China supply chains come or will it be reshoring direct to DMs?
• Political risks – Thailand and Malaysia in focus for now
• Ongoing digitization of the consumer and new business models
PAGE 2
Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Market valuations and ratings – Philippines and Singapore presenting opportunities
Singapore and Philippines at average PEs Big recovery in Malaysia and Indonesia
%
x
60.0
20.0
50.0 45.8
17.9 18.6
18.0 17.8 40.0
29.9 29.6
15.7 16.4 16.1 30.0 23.4
16.0 15.8 16.7
15.4 20.0
14.0
14.0 14.0 10.0
-
12.0 13.3
12.8 -10.0 -1.6
12.0
10.0 -20.0
-16.6
-30.0 -20.5 -22.6 -20.2
9.6
8.0 8.9 -40.0
6.0 -50.0
Singapore Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia
+/-1 std-dev Average Trading Correction Recovery Ytd
At the stock level, individual ratings Philippines Most bottom-up upside Singapore
%
100
14 13
90 24 25 21
25
80 7
28
70 12 17
15
22
60
50
40 79
30 65 60 59 62
53
20
10
-
Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Total
Outperform Neutral Underperform
Source: Gov’t of Singapore, Macquarie Research PAGE 3Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Singapore support measures tapering through re-opening
• Suburban and downtown mall traffic at 60-80% and 40-55% of pre-COVID levels
• Office utilisation remains relatively low at 10-30% due to work from home
• Domestic ‘stay-cations’ an attempt at driving up hospitality sector
• Opening up borders? China for business, Malaysia protocol being determined
S$101b Covid-related support (~21% GDP) Job-support scheme levels to taper
S$b %
120 80%
70%
100
60%
80
50%
60 40%
30%
40
20%
20
10%
0 0%
Covid-related fiscal support announced Food/Hospitality Aviation/Tourism Others
Source: Gov’t of Singapore, Macquarie Research PAGE 4Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Singapore Elections – Opposition did well at the polls
• 8.6ppt swing away from the ruling Peoples’ Action Party (PAP) with the opposition
winning 3 constituencies and 10% of the Parliament’s seats
• A referendum on the 4th Generation of PAP leaders, including Deputy PM Heng
Swee Keat who is expected to take the helm this term
• Job security, cost of living, housing and welfare key issues
PAP Popular vote at 61.2% Opposition seats in Parliament
% seats
90 12 12%
10 10%
80 10
8 8%
69.9
70 6 6%
6 6
4 4%
60 61.0 61.2
60.1 2 2%
2 2
50 0 0%
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1991 1997 2001 2006 2011 2015 2020 2001 2006 2011 2015 2020
PAP popular vote Opposition seats % Parliament (RHS)
Source: Gov’t of Singapore, Macquarie Research PAGE 5Macquarie Research | EQUITIES ASEAN Strategy Singapore – High conviction ideas DBS (DBS SP) • Strong deposit flows, Singapore benefiting relative to Hong Kong. • Potential to parlay into wealth or property investment in coming periods • Ahead of the curve on provision charges and reserving levels vs peers. Negatives in the price • Trading at 1x P/B. Attractive for a franchise able to deliver c. 11% RoTE Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust (FLT SP) • Logistics a strong thematic to localisation and re-shoring of supply chains • Trades at a wider discount to peers, including MLT, at 0.5x P/B differential • 21% upside, including 5.6% yield. Catalysts are sponsor pipeline asset injections in EU/UK/AU UOL Group (UOL SP) • Redevelopment opportunities, incrementally attractive in a down market • Trading close to insider buying levels with the controlling Wee family accumulating recently • S$8.85 target (35% upside) based on 35% RNAV discount Dairy Farm (DFI SP) • Turnaround play on SE Asia Groceries improving margins. Own brand roll out gathering pace • Levered to a reopening of Hong Kong to Mainland China tourists. • Growth from 7Eleven store roll out in China as well • Core business trading at
Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Malaysia – Enjoy the liquidity but mind the gaps
• Economic data to remain weak, but as long as narrative for 2021 remains intact, expect buoyant close into
year end and 1H21. End 2020 KLCI target of 1,648.
• We are looking for 3.1% GDP decline in 2020 with 5.5% growth in 2021 vs BNM’s -3.5 to -5.5% and +5.5-
8.0% respectively. Good signs of recovery post April lows.
• General Elections in 4Q20 to mitigate concerns on political and policy uncertainty. Expect economic
stimulus measures post GE.
• US-China trade spat supportive of manufacturing sector. FDI approvals from US and China based
investors spiked in 2019.
• Post-election stimulus likely to focus on infrastructure, digitalisation of government and economy and
narrowing the economic divide (higher minimum wages).
• Market positioning – near term gloves likely to outperform on higher ASPs and upcoming flu season
induced demand. As profits taken, rotate into laggards banks, telcos, plantations and construction.
PAGE 7Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Malaysia – July indicators suggest continued improvement in economic activity in 3Q20
Index of Wholesale & Industrial Production Malaysia Gross Credit Card Spending
Retail Trade Index Exports (RMbn) (RMbn)
Google Community Mobile Report of Malaysia
Manufacturing PMI Electricity Generation
Mobility Changes Compared to Baseline (% decline)
Index ‘000 Gwh
Workplace Retail & Recreation
PAGE 8Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Malaysia – High-conviction ideas
Top Glove (TOPG MK)
• Strong demand for gloves due to Covid causing shortages and driving ASPs higher (up to 2-3x for spot
orders).
• Longer-term demand outlook for gloves could have got a lift from Covid; supply response at least 12
months out.
• Our TP (RM30.40; 20% TSR) implies 23x CY21 PER. In the long run gloves as staples within the
healthcare industry should trade inline with consumer staples.
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK)
• Opening up of casino in mid-June paves the way for return to profitability.
• 60-70% of VIP/Premium Mass players are locals. Inability to travel may raise share of VIP market from
ASEAN peers.
• At 7.8x 21E EV/EBITDA valuations are undemanding while a rebound in dividend yields back to 8.5% (21E)
an added attraction.
Telekom Malaysia (T MK)
• Play on post Covid increase in digitalisation of government and enterprises.
• Large-scale coverage of fibre assets makes TM a play on 5G whether or not it receives spectrum. TM is
focused on being an infrastructure player either way.
• Valuations at 5.2x 21E adj. EV/EBITDA compelling vs domestic peers despite superior growth.
Top short – Maybank (MAY MK)
• Net profits set to fall 40% on NIM compression, higher credit costs and modification losses.
• Cash dividend yields set to drop to 0.4% from 8%.
• At 1x 21E PB valuations are stretched vs domestic peers with ROEs of 6.6%/8.2% in 20/21E.
PAGE 9Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Indonesia – Eyeing gradual recovery; gov’t spending a crucial driver heading into 2021
• Sluggish economic recovery likely in 2H 2020 as new COVID-19 cases stay elevated
• We forecast -1 to -1.5% real GDP decline in 2020, followed by +5 to 5.5% growth in 2021. This compares
to the Ministry of Finance’s projections of -1.1 to +0.2% and +4.5-5.5% ranges, respectively
• Gov’t spending will remain crucial to mitigate downside risks; social aid disbursement a bright spot YTD
• FY21 draft budget deficit will narrow YoY. Infra sector is key beneficiary due to +47% uptick YoY off a low
base. Headline figures will decrease off a high base for social aid and healthcare, but core allocations intact
• JCI Index is trading at above +1 StDev. Nonetheless, gov’t policies may provide downside support to
the market, with narrative on 2021 recovery reiterated. COVID-19 vaccine launch in 1Q21 is imperative
• Market positioning – recommend resilient sectors but also having exposure to those benefiting from
improving activities since the gradual economic re-opening in June
• Core picks: Select banks (BBCA, BTPS), telco/towers (TLKM, EXCL), healthcare (HEAL)
• Recovery picks: Consumer (ACES), cement (INTP, SMGR), toll roads (JSMR) PAGE 10Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Indonesia - Government spending to the rescue; room for improvement in 2H 2020
In light of tight stimulus program, social aid disbursement speed has been a bright spot
(% of GDP)
30%
25%
25%
20% 18%
15%14%
15% 14%
10%10%10%
9% 9%
10%
7% 6%
5% 5%
4% 4%
5% 3% 3%
1%
0%
Germany
India
Mexico
Korea
Italy
China
Australia
France
Turkey
Brazil
UK
Russia
Indonesia
Canada
South Africa
Argentina
Japan
USA
Saudi Arabia
Stimulus Allocation 3rd July 2020 Mid-August 2020
Sector
(Rp tn) % of Stimulus spent Amount Spent % of Stimulus spent Amount Spent
Social protection 203.9 36% 73.79 42% 86.27
Business incentives 120.61 11% 13.48 13% 16.20
Corporate funding 53.57 0% 0.00 0% 0.00
Sectoral ministries/institutions &
106.11
local gov'ts 5% 5.50 8% 8.50
MSMEs 123.46 24% 30.00 26% 32.51
Healthcare 87.55 5% 4.18 8% 6.94
Total 695.2 18% 126.95 22% 150.42
Source: Ministry of Finance, Macquarie Research, August 2020 PAGE 11Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Indonesia - No signs of ending yet for the first wave of COVID-19 cases
Gradual uptick on mall visits but still ~50%
Higher driving activity levels have been seen in Jakarta below pre-COVID levels, per our checks
Source: Ministry of Health, Apple Mobility, Macquarie Research, August 2020 PAGE 12Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Indonesia – High conviction ideas
CORE PICKS
Banks - Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)
• Remains our preferred major bank stock in Indonesia
• Has the strongest capital position, sector-leading fee income franchise, and best profitability profile
• Valuation premium over state peers can widen as the economic recovery path still uncertain
Telco - Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)
• Telkomsel and Indihome remain undisputed market leaders amid pressure on TLKM’s legacy business
• Despite recent “unlimited” plans, we believe in stable market; not expecting value destructive price war
• At 6.6x adjusted FY20 EV/EBITDA and 6% dividend yield, we see compelling valuation
Healthcare – Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ)
• Resilient top-line growth drivers with ~50% revenue exposure to the Universal Healthcare; ob-gyn segment
• Further room for EBITDA margin expansion on the back of cost efficiencies
• Reasonable valuation considering wide EV/EBITDA discount relative to best-in-class MIKA
RECOVERY PICK
Cement - Indocement (INTP IJ)
• Among the main beneficiaries of infra budget uptick and continued funding support for low-income housing
• Potential ASP upside risk should supply/demand environment improve in 2021
• Robust net cash position with no debt provides M&A optionality; also a laggard play
PAGE 13Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Thailand – Liquidity to lead SET over political risk
⚫ Macro – GDP bottomed at -12% in 2Q20, thanks to Bt1.9trn stimulus. We forecast 2020-21F GDP of -8%
and +3%. Consumption stimulus remain key GDP driver through 4Q20 as travel bubble plans pushed back.
⚫ Politics – Ongoing student protests. Lack of support from opposition parties as protestor agenda violates
constitutional law. Political risk is likely contained in 3Q but road to violence is possible after.
⚫ Market – Global/domestic liquidity and short-selling limits should still lead SET direction for 6-12 months.
1H20A in-line profit of MACQ covered stocks hinted at less FY20F EPS estimate cuts in aggregate. We
maintain our 2020F SET Index target of 1,380 (1-year fwd 16x P/E) and introduce a 2021F target of 1,430.
⚫ Risks – (i) second wave (if happens, likely in winter) would taper hope of hotel/transport/financial sectors
rally. Less fiscal/monetary policy space to buffer full lockdown for second wave. (ii) political violence could
add on risk to government stimulus spending disbursement.
⚫ Preferred sectors: Food, commerce, telco, energy, and manufacturing. Add stocks/sectors with laggard
valuations and 2021F low-base recovery, in any correction.
PAGE 14Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Thailand Covid-19 tracker 2Q20 GDP beat thanks to govt stimulus and -23% import
Growth Rate 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20 2Q20 1H20 2020F 2021F
Active Total New Growth Rate (the day Total New
Cases Cases Cases (vs 24hrs ago) before) Deaths Deaths Gross Dom estic Products 0.9 2.9 3.2 3.9 4.1 2.4 -2.0 -12.2 -6.9 -8.0 3.0
Private Consumption 0.9 2.2 3.1 3.2 4.6 4.5 2.7 -6.6 -2.1 -2.0 3.0
Government Consumption 2.8 3.0 1.6 0.5 1.5 1.4 -2.8 1.4 -0.7 2.0 2.5
106 3,269 8 0% 0% 58 0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -2.2 4.3 2.8 0.9 3.3 2.2 -6.5 -8.0 -7.2 -5.5 3.0
Death Total Recovery Total Cases Total Deaths Total Tests Exports of Goods & Services 0.2 0.7 2.1 5.6 7.0 -3.2 1.4 -17.8 -17.6 -13.0 7.0
Rate Recovered Rate / 1M pop / 1M pop Tests / 1M pop
CPI ann avg 1.9 -0.9 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 -2.7 -1.1 -1.0 0.5
Policy rate 2.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.25 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.25
2% 3,105 1 47 1 685,316 9,817 USD:THB 32.9 36.0 35.8 32.7 32.3 29.7 32.7 30.9 30.9 31.5 31.0
Govt stimulus – Potential shopping stimulus in 4Q Lost working hours slowed in June
Budget Bt bn
MoF emergency decree 1,000
- Bt600bn for public health and relief measures, comprising
Bt45bn for public health department and Bt555bn for MoF
- Bt400bn for economic, community, and public infrastructure
stimulus
SME soft loan emergency decree 500
Corporate Bond Stabilization Fund emergency decree 400
Major measures
Relief measure for employee & self-employed (Apr-Jun) 240
Relief measure for farmer (Apr-Jun) 150
Relief measure for disabled, new-borned, and senior citizen
(Apr-Jun) 39
Tourism stimulus (Jul-Oct) 22.4
Additional SME soft loan & credit guarantee stimulus under
existing budget 114.1
Source: NESDC, BoT, MoF, Macquarie Research, January 2020
PAGE 15Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Thailand – High conviction ideas
Top Buy Top Sell
SCC (OP, Bt364CP, BT400TP) IVL (UP, Bt24.50CP, BT20TP)
⚫ Local cement demand & cost savings ⚫ Integrated spread narrowed from May peak
⚫ IPO of packaging business in 4Q20 ⚫ Unplanned shutdown of US ethane cracker
⚫ Key benefit of government infra spending ⚫ Contribution from mobility and lifestyle segments
turned to negative
HMPRO (OP, Bt15.3CP, BT17.50TP)
⚫ Demand for home renovation AWC (UP, Bt3.84CP, BT3.40TP)
⚫ Limited cost savings vs. hotel peers
⚫ Efficient cost control vs. peers
⚫ More MICE & foreign tourists dependent than peers
⚫ Key benefit of 4Q government shopping stimulus
CPF (OP, Bt33.25CP, BT35TP)
⚫ Solid livestock prices into 2H20
⚫ Strong Thai shrimp business turnaround
⚫ Cash prepared for Tesco acquisition
PAGE 16Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Philippines - Reopening provides an opportunity to be more than attractively valued
➢ We see a 10% upside to our bottom-up based PCOMP target to 6,500 by the end of
2020E, which would imply a PER of 16x for 2021.
➢ Reopening resumption limits potential downside risk our existing GDP forecast of
-4.3% in 2020E. The most recent monthly remittances of +7% YoY reflect a recovery
from the recent -19% YoY
➢ Despite having a strong balance sheet with a debt to GDP of 39%, government
stimulus has been feeble (just 1.5% of GDP thus far) and execution ability is to blame
➢ BSP has been a more even keeled. We forecast policy rates to be cut to 2.0% and
RRR reduced to 10% for the rest of 2020.
Sector View Top Outperform Picks
Telecoms Overweight TEL, GLO
Consumer Overweight URC, CNPF, PGOLD
Banks Neutral BPI, MBT
Utilities Neutral MER, MPI
Conglomerates Underweight AC
Property Underweight SMPH
Source: Macquarie Research, August 2020
PAGE 17Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Philippines - Key economic forecasts
2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E
GDP (%) 6.7 6.2 5.9 (4.3) 5.0
Personal consumption (%) 5.9 5.6 5.8 (6.0) 3.4
Govt spend (%) 7.0 12.8 10.5 15.0 15.5
Capital formation (%) 9.4 13.9 (0.6) (9.0) 8.0
Inflation (Y/Y, %) 2.9 5.2 2.5 2.4 2.8
RRR (%, year end) 20 18 14 10 8
Policy rate (%, year end) 3.00 4.75 4.00 2.00 2.00
Current account (% of GDP) (0.8) (2.4) (1.8) (1.0) (2.5)
Fiscal deficit (% of GDP) (2.2) (2.9) (2.8) (9.0) (9.5)
PHP:USD, year end 49.90 52.56 50.80 50.00 51.00
Remittances growth (Y/Y, %) 5.3 3.0 3.1 -5.0 2.0
Loans growth (Y/Y, %) 16.8 13.1 7.9 7.0 7.0
➢ We currently have retained a forecast GDP of -4.3% for 2020E. We expect this to recover
in 2021E to +5.0%.
➢ We forecast negative real rates to persist given our CPI expectation of 2.4%.
➢ There is room to bring down policy rates and RRR further to 2.0% and 10% respectively.
Source: BSP, PSA, Macquarie Research, August 2020
PAGE 18Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Top Outperform picks in the Philippines
PT Sh Price Rating PE(x) EPS Growth (%) PBV (x) ROE (%)
PhP PhP 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E 2020E 2021E
Top Outperformer
TEL PM 1,670 1,368 OP 11.2 10.1 15.7 11.1 2.4 2.2 22.4 22.5
URC PM 158 137 OP 26.1 23.8 1.6 9.8 3.2 3.0 12.5 13.0
BPI PM 90 64 OP 16.8 10.8 -41.0 55.4 1.0 0.9 6.2 9.1
GLO PM 2,300 2,112 OP 12.8 11.1 -1.9 15.7 3.1 2.5 25.6 24.9
PGOLD PM 57 51 OP 20.2 17.6 7.7 14.8 2.2 2.0 11.2 11.7
CNPF PM 20 16 OP 14.6 13.6 18.5 7.9 2.6 2.2 18.9 17.7
ICT PM 122 108 OP 33.6 30.2 -33.1 11.1 3.2 3.0 9.3 10.2
MER PM 310 270 OP 13.8 12.9 -7.1 6.3 3.4 3.2 25.5 25.5
Top Underperformer
JFC PM 80 140 UP nmf 42.8 nmf nmf 2.2 2.1 -17.0 5.0
JGS PM 47 63 UP 42.6 26.5 -57.9 60.6 1.4 1.4 3.4 5.3
PCOMP 20.3 14.7 -35.9 38.0 2.1 2.0 8.5 10.8
Source: FactSet, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, August 2020, prices as of 20 August 2020
PAGE 19Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Summary of our conviction ideas in ASEAN
Market cap Share price Rating Target price TSR PER (x) EPS growth (%) ROE (%) PBV (x) Div yield (%)
US$m LC$/sh LC$/sh (%) 20e 20e 20e 20e 20e
Singapore
DBS SP 38,898 20.7 OP 24.1 20.5 11.8 -29.5 8.6 1.0 4.2
FLT SP 3,449 1.4 OP 1.6 21.0 20.8 -21.1 6.0 1.3 5.1
UOL SP 3,972 6.4 OP 8.9 38.8 266.4 -95.7 0.2 0.5 1.2
DFI SP 5,614 4.2 OP 5.7 41.4 24.0 -27.7 19.8 4.8 4.1
Malaysia
TOPG MK 17,612 27.1 OP 30.4 13.1 46.2 304.4 47.9 18.9 1.1
GENM MK 3,273 2.3 OP 3.2 44.3 nmf nmf -10.2 0.8 5.2
T MK 3,382 3.7 OP 5.3 43.7 30.2 -46.2 6.3 1.9 2.5
MAY MK 20,583 7.6 UP 7.2 -2.5 15.8 -34.1 6.6 1.0 3.3
Indonesia
BBCA IJ 52,829 31,650 OP 34,500 10.8 35.0 -21.9 12.6 4.4 1.8
TLKM IJ 20,120 3,000 OP 4,100 42.7 12.7 16.3 22.8 2.8 6.0
HEAL IJ 634 3,150 OP 3,810 22.0 35.6 3.1 11.8 4.1 1.1
INTP IJ 2,941 11,800 OP 15,400 34.7 23.0 -1.7 8.2 1.9 4.2
Thailand
SCC TB 13,758 358.0 OP 400.0 15.2 14.7 -8.9 10.2 1.5 3.5
HMPRO TB 6,486 15.4 OP 17.5 15.7 37.9 -13.4 24.7 9.1 2.1
CPF TB 9,101 33.0 OP 35.0 8.5 18.2 14.6 9.0 1.6 2.5
IVL TB 4,351 24.2 UP 20.0 -14.3 14.2 -20.0 7.4 1.0 3.1
AWC TB 3,853 3.8 UP 3.4 -9.4 299.6 -61.9 0.5 1.6 0.1
Philippines
TEL PM 6,085 1,368 OP 1,670 27.0 11.2 15.7 22.4 2.4 4.9
URC PM 6,226 137 OP 158 17.5 26.1 1.6 12.5 3.2 2.3
BPI PM 5,900 64 OP 90 44.6 16.8 -41.0 6.2 1.0 2.8
GLO PM 5,802 2,112 OP 2,300 13.6 12.8 -1.9 25.6 3.1 4.7
PGOLD PM 3,029 51 OP 57 12.7 20.2 7.7 11.2 2.2 0.9
CNPF PM 1,181 16 OP 20 24.8 14.6 18.5 18.9 2.6 1.4
ICT PM 4,518 108 OP 122 16.1 33.6 -33.1 9.3 3.2 3.1
MER PM 6,267 270 OP 310 19.6 13.8 -7.1 25.5 3.4 4.8
JFC PM 3,181 140 UP 80 -41.2 nmf nmf -17.0 2.2 1.4
JGS PM 9,357 63 UP 47 -25.3 42.6 -57.9 3.4 1.4 0.6
Source: Macquarie Research. Share price reflects closing price on 20th Aug’20. PAGE 20Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
ASEAN Strategy
Appendix - Relief measures being supported through the region’s commercial banks
Interest
Moratoria Liquidity support Credit relief NPL recognition
capitalisation?
Rp3t per bank for 12 small, illiquid Credit insurance coverage of 50- Restructured loans due to Covid
Up to 12 months, principal and
and near insolvent banks 100% up to Rp1t loan size remain at current status
interest holiday for consumer,
Indonesia No
micro and small business loans
Rp30t provided to state banks, Capital injection in Bahana, Provisions being built in anticipation,
(Macquarie Research | EQUITIES Important Disclosures: Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition* Financial definitions Macquarie – Asia and USA This is calculated from the volatility of historic price All "Adjusted" data items have had the following Outperform – expected return >10% movements. adjustments made: Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe Underperform – expected return 10% appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority Neutral – expected return from 0% to 10% High – stock should be expected to move up or down at interests Underperform – expected return
Macquarie Research | EQUITIES
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