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Asia Pacific
real estate
Opportunities
in dynamic markets

                                                2019

                                       MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Contents

 4                6           8

 Key figures at               The view from
 a glance         Summary     the top

                  12          20

                  The grand   Sector by
                  tour        sector

                              26

                              The investment
                              thesis

                                      MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Authors

          Marcus Sperber
          Global Head of Real Estate

          John Saunders
          Head of Real Estate Asia

          Bruce Wan
          Head of Asia Real Assets Research

                                              MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Key
figures at
 a glance

             MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Asia Pacific: a big market, with dynamic growth drivers

                                                                               34
                                                                              of global GDP
                                                                                                   %

                                                                              output in 2017

                                                                         Source: IMF (October 2018)

                                       1.5
                                       new middle-class
                                                          bn                   47
                                                                         of global GDP growth
                                                                                                    %

                                      consumers in 2020s                 over the next five years
                                    Source: Brookings Institution        Source: IMF (October 2018)
                                             (Feb 2017)

       35               %

 share of institutional real
                                       3.8people across
                                                          bn                 44
                                                                           people urbanising
                                                                                                  mn

  estate globally by 2026                 31+ countries                       every year

       Source: PGIM (2016)           Source: IMF (October 2018)         Source: United Nations (2017)

There is no guarantee that forecasts will come to pass.

                                                                  O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S   5
                                                                                              MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Summary

          MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
The quick download
This paper provides a high-level guide to direct real estate investment in the Asia Pacific (APAC), particularly from
the perspective of cross-border investors, potentially new to this dynamic part of the world. In this report, we focus
on the macro fundamentals behind the investment case for this region. Specifically, we consider the most prominent
questions for investors heading into these markets, namely, ‘Why Asia?’, ‘Why real estate?’ and ‘Why now?’.

        Why focus on Asia Pacific?                                     risk-adjusted returns. What is our view? For core,
                                                                       the focus on yields and reliable incomes are
        In our view, there is a very compelling and
                                                                       leading investors to Japan, Australia, South Korea
        durable growth story across the Asia Pacific
                                                                       and Singapore. Meanwhile, for value-add, the
        region. This swift expansion is being supported
                                                                       drive for rewarding strategies – through releasing,
        by robust population growth, sustained
                                                                       restructuring and development – opens a wider
        urbanisation and rapid income growth. The
                                                                       array of opportunities in Japan, China, South
        relatively stronger growth outlook is, in turn,
                                                                       Korea, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong.
        supporting tenant demand and rental income
                                                                       Indeed, persistent market inefficiencies in select
        growth on a broad basis. This growth story
                                                                       real estate markets continue to provide attractive
        is pervasive across the region, a trend that is
                                                                       arbitrage opportunities.
        considerably broader than the development of
        any one single country or market.
                                                                       Investing in a changing landscape.
        Why concentrate on real estate?                                Markets are never static. Demographic and
                                                                       technological trends in APAC are driving
        Investors are looking to real estate for consistent
                                                                       deep structural changes in the pattern of
        income returns. According to MSCI data, APAC
                                                                       tenant demand. Global real estate yields are
        markets delivered firmer, less volatile, returns
                                                                       cyclically low, prompting a greater focus on
        over the past ten years, compared to both
                                                                       rental incomes to support returns. Meanwhile,
        North America and Europe. As markets in this
                                                                       real estate cycles are moving through different
        region mature further and capital pools deepen,
                                                                       phases across the APAC region, which stresses
        there will be in our view a more urgent push for
                                                                       the importance of a pan-regional strategy to
        local, high-quality, institutional-grade, income-
                                                                       enhance diversification and stability of returns.
        producing assets.

                                                                       Risks and opportunities in the outlook?
        Why invest now?
                                                                       All markets carry some risks and this region
        APAC real estate markets are improving swiftly
                                                                       is no different. Rising trade protectionism will
        in terms of both liquidity and transparency. On
                                                                       likely erode growth and sentiment in China and
        the back of the stronger growth outlook, APAC
                                                                       elsewhere, particularly in the manufacturing
        markets are gaining considerably in both size
                                                                       export sector. Rising US rates will impact Hong
        and market weight. For investors, there is an
                                                                       Kong more directly. Rapid supply gains are
        escalating underweight position to the APAC
                                                                       apparent in spot real estate markets, suggesting
        region, at a time of relatively firmer regional
                                                                       considerable value-add from active leasing
        growth and strong historical returns.
                                                                       strategies and market / sector selection. Credit
                                                                       tightening are adding to financial system
        What are the potential strategies?
                                                                       stability in China and also creating opportunities
        There is a wide range of opportunities in APAC
                                                                       working with capital-constrained developers
        markets, depending on investors’ appetite for
                                                                       and landlords.

                                                                         O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S   7
                                                                                                     MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
The view
from the
   top

           MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Setting the scene                                                For these and other reasons, we think that real estate
                                                                 investors should be looking broadly across the APAC
for investors                                                    region for opportunities in these rapidly-growing real
                                                                 estate markets.
For many institutional real estate investors, putting
capital to work abroad takes considerable time and               In this context, this white paper is structured to
energy. Overcoming home bias and getting sufficient              provide a high-level introduction for direct APAC real
clarity on foreign markets are real and tangible                 estate markets. Specifically, we outline the real estate
challenges for many potential cross-border investors.            investment thesis for the APAC market; provide an
This is similarly true for real estate investors heading into    overview into key markets and sectors; consider some of
the APAC region, particularly for the first time.                the thematic market drivers; and discuss potential risks
                                                                 to the outlook.
So why focus on APAC real estate? What is the
market outlook? Where are the potential investment
opportunities? This paper is written to provide some             What are the key
answers to these and other common investor questions.
                                                                 macroeconomic themes?
In our view, there is a strong fundamental case for
                                                                 Looking across the APAC region, there are a number of
increased attention and allocation into the APAC region,
                                                                 important macroeconomic trends and themes, related
centred on a number of key macroeconomic themes
                                                                 to the real estate market outlook.
driving the rapid development of these dynamic real
estate markets. There is relatively stronger economic            •     Strong growth is supporting demand. Overall,

growth, which serves to support tenancy demand                         APAC economies are lifting broadly on the back of

and potential returns. There are diverse market                        robust and sustained economic growth. While the

opportunities, given a broad range of cities and sectors               unprecedented scale and pace of development

moving through different phases of the market cycle.                   in China is the dominant economic story of

Moreover, there are significant diversification benefits               our generation, the pattern of robust growth

from a broad regional market exposure.                                 is considerably broader than just China. Other

Figure 1: Robust growth outlook across a broad                   Figure 2: APAC growth expectations are easing
range of APAC regional economies                                 modestly on US trade concerns

Real GDP growth (2019-23, % p.a.)                                Real GDP forecasts – rolling 5 years ahead, % p.a.

                                                                 8
      India                                               7.7%

      China                                        5.9%
                                                                 6                                           Asia Pacific
  Indonesia                                   5.2%

Hong Kong                            3.0%

South Korea                         2.7%                         4
                                                                                                             United States
   Australia                        2.7%

 Singapore                          2.7%                         2
         US                  1.8%
                                                                                                             Eurozone
  Euro area                  1.7%
                                            APAC                 0
     Japan            0.6%
                                            4.6%
                                                                     2000   2003      2006      2009      2012      2015       2018

Source: IMF, BlackRock (January 2019)                            Source: IMF, BlackRock (January 2019)
There is no guarantee that forecasts will come                   There is no guarantee that forecasts will come
to pass.                                                         to pass.

                                                                            O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S     9
                                                                                                        MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
maturing markets in the region (India, Indonesia
                                                                What are the main drivers
    and Malaysia) are similarly taking off due to the
    virtuous pattern of increased productivity, sustained       of structural change?
    urbanisation and rising incomes. Without a doubt,
                                                                Several significant and enduring demographic trends are
    the benefits of these developments spill out very
                                                                adding to the robust fundamental demand across APAC
    broadly – through trade, tourism and capital flows
                                                                real estate markets.
    – to affect more mature markets in the APAC region
    as well (Japan, South Korea and Australia). More            •   Population growth is lifting demand. Robust
    tangibly, the key financial, services and logistics             population increases remain a critical driver of
    hubs in this region (Hong Kong and Singapore)                   fundamental real estate demand. While APAC
    stand to be very direct beneficiaries of these long-            population growth is relatively upbeat (2019-23:
    running development trends.                                     +0.9% p.a.) and well ahead of the pace in advanced
                                                                    economies (+0.4% p.a.), there are wide divergences
•   Economic outperformance to persist. In absolute                 between different countries and particularly different
    terms, the medium-term (five-year ahead) economic               cities, driven by birth rates and migration. Indeed,
    growth expectations are considerably stronger for               Melbourne, Sydney and Singapore stand out in
    the APAC region (2019-23: 4.6% p.a.), compared to               terms of migrant-led expansion, which is adding
    Europe (1.7% p.a.) or North America (1.9% p.a.). In             to residential and commercial space demand.
    other words, for every $100 of new income created               Meanwhile, population ageing and emigration are
    globally in the next five years, $47 of this will be            reducing the population base in Seoul and Osaka. The
    created in the APAC region. Certainly, part of this             most interesting case is in Tokyo, where strong net
    outperformance is related to the rapid pace of                  immigration from provincial Japan are underpinning
    economic development in India (7.7% p.a.), China                robust real estate demand, more than reversing the
    (5.9% p.a.), and Indonesia (5.2% p.a.). However,                nationwide trends of population decline and ageing.3
    this pattern of firm regional growth is considerably
    broader than emerging markets and encompasses               •   The Asian middle class arrives in earnest. With the
    Hong Kong (3.0% p.a.), South Korea (2.7% p.a.),                 rapid growth in economic activity and household
    Australia (2.7% p.a.) and Singapore (2.7% p.a.) as well.1       incomes, there is a seismic shift centred on the
                                                                    accelerated growth of middle-class households. In
•   Interest rate settings remain accommodative. In
                                                                    Asia, there is an estimated 1.5 billion new middle
    the context of a sustained tightening in US interest
                                                                    class consumers emerging in the 2020s, contributing
    rates (+225 bps since 2015), the equivalent settings
                                                                    around 89% of gains globally. Four of the top five
    in the APAC region are generally still very low and
                                                                    middle-class consumer markets will be located in Asia
    accommodative. In particular, cash rates in Japan,
                                                                    by 2030. The middle-class squeeze for US retailers
    China and Australia remain at their cyclical lows,
                                                                    is largely absent in Asia. Moreover, this middle-class
    with no near-term impetus to tighten. South Korea
                                                                    expansion will underwrite sustained growth in retail
    has tightened modestly (+50 bps), while Hong Kong
                                                                    spending growth and space demand, notwithstanding
    (+225 bps) have tracked US policy moves to maintain
                                                                    headwinds from e-commerce take-up.4
    its currency peg. All in all, the adverse drag from
    tightening monetary policy and rising funding costs         •   Urbanisation is boosting demand in cities. Markets
    are still not in consideration in APAC markets (outside         across the region are clearly in different stages of
    of Hong Kong).2                                                 economic development. For many markets across
                                                                    Asia, relentless urbanisation is still a considerable

1 Source: IMF, BlackRock (January 2019). 2 Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock (January 2019). 3 Source: Oxford
Economics, Statistics Bureau of Japan, BlackRock (January 2019). 4 Source: Brookings institution
(Kharas 2017), BlackRock (January 2019), middle class is defined here as households with incomes of
US$10 to US$100 per day (in 2005 dollars, PPP terms).

10 A SIA PACIF IC R E A L E STAT E
                                                                                                     MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
factor driving rapid growth in major cities, given the         •     E-commerce continues to divert real estate demand.
      ongoing structural shift of workers from farms and                   The rapid rise of online shopping – at a notably
      factories to white-collar services. Indeed, the current              more aggressive pace in China and South Korea – is
      pace of urbanisation is staggering, with 44 million                  actively diverting space demand from in-store retail
      people moving into cities across the APAC region                     to out-of-store logistics and distribution. To be sure,
      every year; creating the equivalent of a New York                    developers are acutely aware of this trend, prompting
      City or Greater London every 2½ months.             5
                                                                           massive new supply in consumer logistics (and a more
                                                                           subdued outlook for rental growth). Nevertheless,
•     Demographic trends are changing demand                               investors are still drawn to this sector for relative yields
      patterns. The changing population profile is leaving                 and the prospects for relative yield compression,
      an indelible mark on the pattern of real estate                      compared to other sectors.
      demand in Asia. Beyond regular population growth,
      ageing is urgently adding demand for healthcare and            •     The sharing economy is gradually emerging.
      aged care, particularly in markets with higher median                Newly-minted business models of coworking and
      age like Japan (48 years by 2020, highest in the                     coliving promise a lot to end-users, including
      world), Hong Kong (45), South Korea (43) and even                    greater flexibility, lower fixed costs and a modern
      China (39). Meanwhile, rising longevity is lengthening               millennial vibe. For landlords, these models are still
      the duration of real estate demand, particularly as                  untested, particularly over a full business cycle and
      APAC life expectancy is rising from 73 years of age                  periods of sluggish tenant demand. Certainly, the
      currently, at a rate of five hours every day.   6
                                                                           critical (and unsettled) question today is – should
                                                                           landlords support these concepts with higher
Meanwhile, technological change is driving ongoing                         incentives and initial fit-out costs, in return for
disruption to traditional real estate sectors in Asia and                  higher effective usage ratios, increased foot traffic
elsewhere, potentially upending older business models                      and a potential valuation effect?
in the process.

Figure 3: APAC interest rates remain low, lagging                    Figure 4: Population growth outlook varies markedly by
the sustained US tightening cycle                                    city, due to demographics and migration

Cash interest rates                                                  Population growth (2019-23) % p.a.
8%
                                                                         Melbourne                                                  1.8%

                                                                            Sydney                                         1.4%
6
                                                                         Singapore                                  1.0%

                                           Australia                      Shanghai                                0.9%
4
                                                                     Kuala Lumpur                                 0.8%

                                                                         Hong Kong                                0.7%
                                       S. Korea               US
2
                                                                            Beijing                               0.6%
                                           Eurozone
                                                                              Tokyo                     0.3%
                   Japan
0
                                                                              Seoul   -0.3%
-1                                                                                                                APAC
                                                                             Osaka    -0.3%                       0.9%
    2000    2003      2006     2009      2012         2015    2018

Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock (January 2019)                          Source: Oxford Economics, IMF, BlackRock
                                                                     (January 2019). There is no guarantee that forecasts
                                                                     will come to pass.

5 Source: United Nations, BlackRock (January 2019), New York City is a subset of the broader NY MSA
tabled in figure 5. 6 Source: United Nations, BlackRock (January 2019).

                                                                                 O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S    11
                                                                                                               MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
The grand
  tour

            MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
An investor’s guide to                                             In the context of market selection, the key
                                                                   considerations at each level are often related to market
APAC markets                                                       transparency, liquidity, and the capacity to deliver on
                                                                   investors’ return and risk expectations. To be sure, these
At the outset, it is worth highlighting that the Asia Pacific
                                                                   criteria for market selection not only apply superficially
is not a singular, monolithic real estate market. The
                                                                   at a national level, but very specifically and more usefully
APAC region is comprised of a diverse range of countries
                                                                   at a city and even sub-market level. The following
and sub-regions, each with their own idiosyncratic
                                                                   section outlines the features and characteristics of key
demand, supply and income and capital market
                                                                   real estate markets in the region.
dynamics. In other words, any informed discussions
about regional investment market opportunities require
us to delve a little deeper, beyond the headlines, into
each country and sub-region.

Figure 5: Key city markets across the Asia Pacific

                                    Population (millions,       GDP (USD per             Fortune 500          Market transparency
 City                Country
                                           2017)                capita, 2017)         Headquarters (2018)           (2018)

 Tokyo*               Japan                 13.8                   92,300                      36                 Transparent

 Osaka*               Japan                 8.9                    73,400                       7                 Transparent

 Sydney              Australia               5.1                   74,600                       2              Highly transparent

 Melbourne           Australia              4.9                    63,900                       1              Highly transparent

 Brisbane            Australia              2.4                    62,000                       0              Highly transparent

 Perth               Australia               2.1                  100,000                       1              Highly transparent

 Shanghai             China                 24.2                   19,400                       7               Semi transparent

 Beijing              China                 21.7                   17,900                      20               Semi transparent

 Guangzhou            China                 13.9                   24,400                       3               Semi transparent

 Shenzhen             China                 11.7                   25,500                       6               Semi transparent

 Hong Kong            China                  7.4                   42,700                       8                 Transparent

 Singapore          Singapore               5.6                    62,000                       3                 Transparent

 Seoul             South Korea               9.7                   34,000                      13                 Transparent

 Reference:

           †
 London            Great Britain            8.9                    73,400                      14              Highly transparent

 New York ‡        United States            20.3                   82,600                      16              Highly transparent

Source: Fortune, Jones Lang LaSalle, Oxford Economics, US BEA, US Census Bureau, BlackRock
(January 2019). * Prefecture level, † London NUTS2 region, ‡ New York, Newark, Jersey City MSA. 2017.
Note, New York figure is latest available.

                                                                                O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S   13
                                                                                                            MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Australia is a medium-sized, open economy (13th in size)      Japan is a major, open economy (3rd in size) with a
with well-established and highly transparent real estate      remarkable industrial sector and well-established
markets (2nd most transparent globally).7                     and transparent real estate markets (14th most
                                                              transparent globally).10
•   The economy has shown remarkable resilience over
    an extended period, with the current expansion            •   The economy has undergone a long period of
    running into its 27th year (the longest run for               difficult structural adjustment following a massive
    any developed economy in modern history). Key                 1980s boom and the subsequent ‘lost decade (and
    factors behind its resilience include its robust pace         a half)’ in the 1990s and early 2000s. Since the mid-
    of population growth (+1.6% y/y) and rapid trade              2000s, however, there have been more consistent
    integration with China. More importantly, vital               and convincing signs of structural recovery, marked
    economic shock absorbers (flexible exchange rates             by stronger bank balance sheets, positive inflation
    and responsive monetary & fiscal policy settings)             and market reforms. Indeed, on the back of this
    have helped the economy weather dramatic                      virtuous cycle, the economy is currently running a
    external shocks (particularly the Asian and Global            durable economic expansion, with impressive uplift
    Financial Crises in 1997 and 2008).   8
                                                                  in both the corporate sector and the labour market.
                                                                  The key longer-term challenges for Japan are
•   Despite its large geographic scale, the Australian            related to its demographics, particularly the ageing
    market is highly urbanised, with activity and                 and shrinking population base.11
    demand largely concentrated into a small
    handful of cities, particularly Sydney, Melbourne,        •   Certainly, Tokyo dominates the Japanese market
    Brisbane and Perth. Of these markets, Sydney and              landscape. Tokyo’s market size is huge, regardless
    Melbourne have more diversified local economies,              of how you draw the boundary around the metro
    including sizeable financial and business services            region (population: 33 million), the prefecture (13
    tenant sectors. Brisbane has a relatively larger              million) or just the 23 wards (9 million). The Greater
    exposure to agriculture, mining and tourism. Perth            Tokyo region is the largest metropolis in the world,
    has traditionally been dominated by the resource              with the largest office market in the world, and home
    sector, with market cycles highly synchronised                to the most Global Fortune 500 headquarters. The
    to fluctuations in mining construction and key                demographic challenges facing broader Japan
    commodity prices.                                             are less pressing in Tokyo. The long-running trend
                                                                  for younger, more educated, migrants to move
•   Australian real estate capital markets are marked             into Tokyo is supporting robust population growth
    by a mature REIT market and a sizeable pension                (+1.0% y/y), which drives a broad spectrum of real
    sector (4th largest globally). Cap rates are relatively       estate demand, particularly in the inner wards of
    high, when compared to offshore markets, which                Tokyo. Notably, Osaka is also a sizeable real estate
    draw a lot of yield-seeking investors. Given                  market in its own right, with a mature and diverse
    keen participation by local REITs, domestic                   regional economy (and very healthy representation
    superannuation funds and offshore investors, trophy           of global headquarters). More broadly, the next
    assets are perennially expensive and tightly held.            tier of smaller Japanese cities – Fukuoka, Nagoya,
    That said, that competition becomes less intense              Yokohama, Sendai and Sapporo – are starting to
    further out into the value-add and opportunistic              emerge onto institutional radar screens, albeit with a
    segments, given fewer active players.9                        smaller pool of investment-grade assets and thinner
                                                                  market liquidity.12

7 Source: JLL, IMF, BlackRock (January 2019). 8 Source: ABS, IMF, BlackRock (January 2019).
9 Source: ACSI, BlackRock (January 2019). 10 Source: IMF, BlackRock (January 2019).
11 Source: Bloomberg, Statistics Bureau of Japan, BlackRock (January 2019).
12 Source: Bloomberg, JLL, Fortune, IMF, Statistics Bureau of Japan, BlackRock (January 2019).

14 A SIA PACIF IC R E A L E STAT E
                                                                                                  MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
•      Japan capital markets are marked by sizeable             China is a globally-significant and rapidly-modernising
       capital pools and a deep REIT sector (2nd in size        economy (2nd in size). Market transparency is still a
       globally). At the same time, there are considerable      work in progress (33rd globally), despite considerable
       market inefficiencies (sometimes driven by a             improvements over the past decade.14
       preference for quiet, off-market trades) and market
                                                                •   The economy is still undergoing a remarkable and
       fragmentation (especially between institutional and
                                                                    speedy transition from a command and control
       private investors), all of which can create meaningful
                                                                    economy, to one that is more affected by market
       arbitrage opportunities. Related to all this, barriers
                                                                    forces. Economic activity has evolved significantly
       to entry in Japan are high for foreign investors, and
                                                                    even in the past decade, previously driven by
       those without a credible local presence are
                                                                    manufacturing and exports, and now considerably
       largely ineffective, given limited access to deal
                                                                    more diversified as the activity base moves to
       sourcing and financing. Low rates in funding
                                                                    higher value-add, increased services component
       markets are being anchored by the continued
                                                                    and greater focus on domestic consumers. Rising
       application of zero interest rate policy and yield
                                                                    trade barriers and intellectual property controls
       curve control, which are prompting cheap funding
                                                                    loom as a drag on growth ahead.
       and eager lenders, notably more so for locally-
       established borrowers.13

Figure 6: Key real estate markets at a glance

         China                                                                                   Japan
Population              1.4 billion                                                       Population             127 million
Economic size           2nd                                                               Economic size          3rd
Transactions            $ 36 billion                                                      Transactions           $ 35 billion
Market transparency 33rd                                                                  Market transparency 14th

          Hong Kong                                                                              South Korea
    Population           7 million
                                                                                          Population             51 million
    Economic size        34th
                                                                                          Economic size          11th
    Transactions         $ 30 billion
                                                                                          Transactions           $ 19 billion
    Market transparency 13th
                                                                                          Market transparency 31st

         Singapore                                                                               Australia
    Population           6 million                                                        Population             25 million
    Economic size        37th                                                             Economic size          13th
    Transactions         $ 8 billion                                                      Transactions           $ 30 billion
    Market transparency 12th                                                              Market transparency 2nd

Source: IMF, JLL, RCA, BlackRock (January 2019). Population and economic data are for 2017.
Transparency data are for 2018. Transaction data are for the year to mid-2018.

13 Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock (January 2019). 14 Source: IMF, JLL, Lloyds, BlackRock (January 2019).

                                                                          O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S    15
                                                                                                       MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
•   As with any rapid structural adjustments, there are             in China, there is a wide array of tier-2 and tier-3
    clear winners and losers. With the continued influx             markets with impressive demand growth credentials,
    of internal migrants, rising concentration of middle-           but they always sit lower on the investor radar
    class consumers and increasing sophistication in                screen, given reduced market liquidity, less market
    knowledge-based industries, Tier-1 cities stand                 transparency and more variable supply pipelines
    out in terms of reaching critical market mass and               (reflecting different local planning regimes).
    growing international influence. On the other hand,
    key regional markets (Northeast industrial and inland       •   Chinese capital markets are still evolving, broadly
    manufacturing hubs) are being visibly hampered by               tracking the progress in the wider real economy.
    excess capacity (particularly in steel making) and rising       Equity markets are becoming more interconnected
    manufacturing costs (driving a familiar hollowing               with global peers, slowly improving in terms of
    out process). Taken altogether, rising incomes, the             market breadth and depth. Listed REITs are still
    emerging middle-class and a progressive move up                 working hard to gain market acceptance, which
    the value-add chain, are combining to drive a robust            (if successful) could introduce more patient rent-
    pattern of real estate demand, very much channelled             collecting investors into a volatile listed equities
    in a broad range of city markets.                               environment. Land use zoning is still a source of
                                                                    uncertainty for investors more used to Western
•   For most institutional investors, the default focus             norms. Capital restrictions (particularly the income
    in China is on the Tier-1 cities of Shanghai, Beijing,          cash trap) remain a deterrent for core, income-
    Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Shanghai is easily the                  minded investors.
    largest and most liquid commercial real estate
    market in China, with a relatively mature regulatory        Hong Kong is a small, very open economy (34th in size),
    and transactional support framework. Shanghai               with a very liquid (and cyclical) real estate market and
    also stands out in terms of the diversity in its tenant     good market transparency (13th globally).15
    base, particularly given its vital role in domestic
    financial and business services. Rapid infrastructure       •   The economy has benefited strongly from the

    development and growth (especially a services                   robust growth in broader China, particularly in

    sector boom) are notably reshaping Shanghai                     the neighbouring markets within the Guangzhou

    through a steady decentralisation process. It remains           province. Hong Kong remains a key financial,

    a vital logistics hub, with the busiest container               logistics and services hub for China and the overall

    port in the world. Beijing remains the critical                 Asian region. With a high exposure to regional

    core of the corporate and government sectors in                 trade (exports were 188% of GDP in 2017), the

    China. It is a relatively smaller real estate market,           economy is relatively sensitive to shifts in trading

    with assets being more tightly held. Interestingly,             volumes. Notably, the exchange rate is pegged to

    the rapid emergence of the technology sector                    the US dollar, providing currency stability, but at

    (anchored by two globally-renowned engineering                  the expense of interest rate policy controls. In this

    schools) is driving the creation of a regional tech             regard, US rate tightening are being matched in HK

    cluster. Meanwhile, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are                  rates, with the stronger currency adding purchasing

    maturing as sizeable and increasingly liquid real               power, but reducing competitiveness.16

    estate markets. The local economies are lifting
    swiftly on the back of growing integration across           •   Hong Kong has long had a deep and mature

    the Greater Bay Area; buoyant manufacturing, trade              capital market, with a robust regulatory framework

    and logistics activity growth; and the emergence                and strong market transparency. The real estate

    of a world-leading technology cluster. Elsewhere                market remains a focal point for mainland Chinese

15 Source: IMF, JLL, BlackRock (January 2019). 16 Source: Census and Statistics Department, BlackRock
(January 2019).

16 A SIA PACIF IC R E A L E STAT E
                                                                                                     MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
investors, particularly more so since the progressive                trading route (25% of global trade), with the second
    withdrawal of Chinese capital from offshore markets                  busiest container port in the world. With a high
    in Europe and the US. Cap rates are exceptionally                    exposure to regional trade (exports were 172% of
    low, and pushing lower, given the large volumes of                   GDP in 2016), the economy is relatively sensitive
    Chinese buyers who invest for non-market reasons                     to cycles in the global economy. Monetary policy
    (store of value). Market cycles tend to be relatively                is enacted through a managed exchange rate
    short, with the average office pricing upswing                       basket, where the current round of policy tightening
    lasting less than three years. That said, the current                is coming through as a modestly appreciating
    upswing is proving unusually durable (running into                   Singaporean dollar.19
    its 7th year in 2018).17
                                                                  •      Singapore continues to operate a mature and

Singapore is also a small and open economy (37th in                      transparent capital market, with a deep listed REIT

size), with a very liquid (and cyclical) real estate market              sector. There is good market transparency with

and good market transparency (12th globally).18                          easy access for foreign investors for both deals and
                                                                         financing. Like Hong Kong, the Singapore real estate
•   The economy continues to be a strong performer,                      market tends to be cyclical, reflecting both global
    holding a persistent regional advantage as the                       pricing cycles and local demand-supply dynamics.
    financial, services, advanced manufacturing,                         The average office pricing cycle lasts around three
    healthcare and logistics hub for a sizeable South                    years. Importantly, the Singapore market is late to
    East Asian market (with a population of 640 million).                the regional upswing in this cycle, given the recent
    It retains a strategic position atop the world’s busiest             round of commercial supply in 2016.20

Figure 7: Transaction volumes are spread broadly across           Figure 8: Real estate market transparency are
several key markets                                               improving broadly across the region

Transaction volumes (annual, % of APAC, year to Q2 2018)          Market transparency (2018)

                                                                      Semi-transparent                  Transparent           Australia

                                                                                                                      New Zealand

        21     %
                   Japan                 21     %
                                                     China
                                                                                                                 Singapore

                                                                                                               Hong Kong

                                                                                                                              Japan

                                                                                             Malaysia
      18   %
               Hong Kong                17      %
                                                    Australia                                              S. Korea
                                                                             2008                       2018
                                                                                                                                   Highly-
                                                                                             China                              transparent

                               4% Singapore                                              India
      11   %
               S. Korea                                5% Other                              Indonesia                              Rank
                                3   %
                                        India
                                                                  60                        40                        20                      0

Source: RCA, BlackRock (January 2019)                             Source: JLL, BlackRock (January 2019)

17 Source: Census and Statistics Department, IMF, BlackRock (January 2019). 18 Source: IMF, JLL,
BlackRock (January 2019). 19 Source: ASEAN, IMF, JLL, Lloyds, Singstat, BlackRock (January 2019).
20 Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock (January 2019).

                                                                                 O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S             17
                                                                                                                      MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
South Korea is a medium-sized, open economy                  Other regional markets may present potentially viable
(11th in size) with a deep and transparent real estate       investment opportunities, although they are generally
market based around its capital, Seoul (31st most            very low on investment priority lists, given a variety of
transparent globally).   21
                                                             fundamental market drivers.

•   The economy has tracked a remarkable                     •   New Zealand, Taiwan and Macau are relatively
    development path since the 1970s, as the largest of          wealthy economies. For institutional investors, the
    four so-called ‘Asian Tigers’. Since that time, South        New Zealand market is largely confined to Auckland,
    Korea has created a number of highly-renowned                where the market is strong, well-developed and
    advanced production sectors, particularly in the             highly transparent, but hard to draw a consistent
    technology and heavy manufacturing segments.                 transactional pipeline given its smaller size. Asset
    The economy is currently tracking a moderate                 pricing in Taipei is relatively challenging. Yields
    expansion, well supported by the strength of                 are exceptionally low, being dominated by a few
    regional demand. On the geo-political front,                 sizeable life insurers (who are constrained by
    there are more encouraging signs of diplomatic               regulation to have largely home-bound portfolios).
    engagement between neighbouring North Korea                  Macau is a very small market of 650,000 people,
    and the rest of the world. Whether we see any actual         with a disproportionate skew in the economy
    progress on an official cessation of hostilities or          towards casino gaming (72% of GDP, 89% of
    eventual denuclearisation, there is at the very least        government revenue).23
    a tangible decline in confrontational rhetoric and
    military posturing.                                      •   Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Thailand and Vietnam
                                                                 are emerging economies with considerable size
•   For inbound investors into South Korea, the typical          and impressive growth prospects. That said, given
    focus is on the Seoul Capital Area, which includes           their current stages of economic and market
    Seoul, Incheon and broader Gyeonggi region.                  development, the pools of investment-grade
    Altogether, this regional area of 24 million people          assets are still relatively small, market transparency
    forms the 5th largest urban agglomeration in the             measures are either lagging (or weakening) and
    world. Given the strengths of the corporate and              market liquidity is still somewhat constrained.
    manufacturing sectors, there is good fundamental
    space demand across the board, including both
    the office and logistics sector. Trophy office
    assets are generally held tightly, with more open
    access outside of premium office grades and in
    other sectors. Market transparency is continually
    improving, officially upgraded to ‘transparent’ status
    in 2018.22

21 Source: IMF, JLL, BlackRock (January 2019). 22 Source: Invest Korea, BlackRock (January 2019).
23 Source: AMCM, DICJ, BlackRock (January 2019).

18 A SIA PACIF IC R E A L E STAT E
                                                                                                  MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S   19
                            MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Sector by
 sector

            MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
What is the APAC                                               In terms of relative pricing, there are some clear trends
                                                               taking hold in APAC sector cap rates.
perspective by sector?
                                                               •    In the context of a continuing economic upswing
Beyond market selection, there is a critical discussion on          and abundant capital, cap rates are still
sector selection. The APAC region, as with other                    compressing on a sustained basis across the
parts of the world, are seeing significant demographic              region. That said, the pace of yield compression is
and technological changes impacting heavily on the                  more moderate to mid-2018 (-26 bps per annum),
both the tenancy and rental income outlooks for various             particularly compared to the more aggressive pace
market sectors.                                                     of recent years.25

Looking at APAC transaction volumes, the market                •    While the overall compression trend is being
continues to be dominated by the office sector, which               mirrored broadly across the market, the spreads
still accounts for the majority of trades in commercial             between sectors are narrowing. In part, this reflects
real estate (52% share, year to Jun-18). The industrial /           the keener investor drive for higher-yielding sectors
logistics sector is the prime mover of recent years                 like industrial and logistics (and in the process
(15% share), on the back of buoyant investor                        bidding away this premium). Also, there is a related
expectations for space demand, in light of the unfolding            process where investors are substituting within
global e-commerce boom. Rising share of industrial are              sectors to higher-yield segments, from prime to
coming partly at the expense of retail (20% share), which           secondary, from central to suburban locations, and
continues to ease on a relative basis. Meanwhile, the               from core to core-plus and beyond.
remainder are also seeing a relative decline, but more so
in multifamily rather than hotels.24

Figure 9: Office sector leads trading volumes, while           Figure 10: APAC cap rates continue to trend lower;
industrial lifts steadily                                      sector spreads are also tightening

APAC transaction volumes (% share)                             APAC cap rates
60%                                                            9%

                                                  Office

                                                               8

                                                                                                              Industrial
40
                                                               7

                                                                                                        Office

                                                  Retail       6
20
                                                  Other

                                                               5
                                                  Industrial
                                                                                          Retail
                                                                                                                  Apartments
 0                                                             4

  2008       2010       2012      2014       2016      2018        2008     2010         2012      2014          2016      2018

Source: RCA, BlackRock (January 2019)                          Source: RCA, BlackRock (January 2019)

24 Source: RCA, BlackRock (January 2019). 25 Source: RCA, BlackRock (January 2019).

                                                                          O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S   21
                                                                                                      MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Office remains the most sizeable and liquid segment of                                          •                     Structural change continues to impact visibly on
  the APAC real estate market.                                                                                          office demand. Changing composition of economic
                                                                                                                        activity to white-collar service sectors (and more
  •                            In our experience, there are consistently full
                                                                                                                        recently to information technology) are strongly
                               pipelines for transactions across major office
                                                                                                                        supporting office tenancy, especially in China.
                               markets, particularly in Japan, Australia, China,
                                                                                                                        The ongoing trend for decentralisation – driven in
                               Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea. Capital
                                                                                                                        varying degrees by lower rents, newer infrastructure
                               from mainland China are still prominently active,
                                                                                                                        or better amenities – are shifting office workers out
                               particularly in Hong Kong. On-market assets are
                                                                                                                        of the CBD and into more convenient periphery
                               hotly contested, especially those in the highly-
                                                                                                                        locations. This trend is particularly notable in office
                               sought trophy category. With tightening cap rates,
                                                                                                                        markets like Shanghai, Seoul and Sydney.
                               investors are accommodating the shift in pricing
                               either with lower entry yield expectations and/or                  •                     Meanwhile, the ongoing rise of the coworking
                               increasing focus on future rental growth potential.                                      concept is driving aggressive take-up of space across
                               In this context, it is important to note the wide                                        many APAC markets. Flexible workspace penetration
                               range of divergent trends in office market rents                                         rates are lifting quickly across the region, led by
                               across the region. Indeed, some office markets are                                       Bengaluru and Delhi (both 18% of the office market
                               currently seeing sustained booms in rents given                                          in 2018), with swift gains in other markets including
                               strong demand growth, limited supply and low                                             Shanghai (8% share), Singapore (4%), Hong Kong
                               vacancies (e.g. Singapore, Sydney and Melbourne).                                        (3%) and Sydney (3%). While some consolidation
                               Conversely, other office markets are seeing weaker                                       of flex-space operators are likely from here, these
                               rental trends, mostly related to subdued demand or                                       service providers are still reaching for higher share of
                               large gains in supply (e.g. Seoul, Brisbane                                              the overall office market. For landlords, flexible space
                               and Shanghai).                                                                           offerings will likely be a permanent feature of the
                                                                                                                        market, although the eventual penetration rate will be
                                                                                                                        tested over the next office market cycle.26

  Figure 11: APAC office markets vary greatly in terms                                              Figure 12: Middle-class consumers are driving a
  of occupancy and rental trends                                                                    different retail tenant cycle in China

  Office rents & vacancy (Q2 2018)                                                                  Retail net absorption
                               18%                                                                                      450
                                                                Singapore
                               15

                                                       Sydney                                                           300
Net effective rents (% p.a.)

                               12
                                                                                                  Index Q1 2008 = 100

                                                  Melbourne
                                                                                                                                      China 13 cities
                                9
                                         Tokyo            Guangzhou                                                     150
                                6

                                                   Hong Kong                      Perth
                                3                Beijing
                                                                                                                          0
                                           Osaka                     Taipei
                                0                      Shenzhen                                                                                  US 75 markets
                                                                                 Shanghai
                                                                Seoul Brisbane
                               -3                                                                                       -150

                                     0             5            10        15      20        25%                                2008    2010      2012     2014     2016       2018
                                                           Vacancy rate (%)

  Source: JLL, BlackRock (January 2019)                                                             Source: JLL, BlackRock (January 2019)

  26 Source: Colliers, BlackRock (January 2019).

  22 A SIA PACIF IC R E A L E STAT E
                                                                                                                                                         MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Retail continues to be a meaningful and sizeable             •   To be clear, the demand profile for APAC industrial
segment of the APAC real estate market.                          space is broader than just consumer logistics. The
                                                                 continuing emergence of advanced manufacturing
•   The retail sector is diverging in terms of underlying
                                                                 is still adding to space demand in this region.
    sales performance. Strong income growth and
                                                                 Meanwhile, traditional factory space across the
    rising number of middle-class consumers are driving
                                                                 region is also being actively repurposed as relatively
    robust uplift in consumer spending, particularly in
                                                                 more affordable office space and even hydroponic
    emerging markets. That said, even more established
                                                                 and aquaculture facilities. Overall, the progressive
    markets (in Japan, Australia, Hong Kong and
                                                                 institutionalisation of the industrial sector is driving
    Singapore) are feeling the positive benefits through
                                                                 a process of structural cap rate compression relative
    upbeat growth in tourism volumes and spending,
                                                                 to other sectors. The key challenge in this sector is
    despite more moderate trends in local income and
                                                                 to realise rental income growth and occupancy in
    spending growth.
                                                                 the face of new supply.

•   The retail sector is definitely going through deep
                                                             Multifamily real estate is an emerging sector slowly
    structural change as e-commerce partially diverts
                                                             getting more traction in this region.
    consumer spending from brick-and-mortar stores
    to their online counterparts. That said, it is two-way   •   Besides residential development, the institutional
    traffic, as some pure online retailers start to make         multifamily market is largely confined to Japan,
    their way into shopping centres with physical outlets.       and particularly Tokyo. In part, this reflects the
    While this online shift is driving a deep disruption         strongly favorable residential market dynamics in
    in mature retail markets, particularly in the US,            Tokyo, including sustained migration from rural
    this trend is being offset to a significant degree           Japan, higher propensity to rent and elevated
    by favorable demographic trends in this region.              prices driving poor housing affordability. Elsewhere,
    Specifically, the combination of rising incomes              there are nascent multifamily strategies emerging in
    and the emergence of middle-class consumers are              other markets like Shanghai and Sydney. That said,
    driving a markedly different trend in off-line retail        developments in these and other locations continue
    spending (and retail tenant net absorption).                 to be hampered by very low investment yields and
                                                                 competition for land and stock from the built-for-
Industrial real estate is rapidly gaining momentum               sale market. Indeed, the search for sufficient income
across the APAC region, given a number of supporting             yields remains the key long-term challenge for the
structural drivers.                                              APAC income-producing residential sector.

•   The most significant driver in APAC industrial relates
                                                             •   Moreover, government policy risk is a key (and
    to the unmitigated rise of e-commerce retailing
                                                                 underappreciated) factor in residential markets,
    and the associated space demand for modern
                                                                 compared to commercial sectors. Across the
    consumers logistics. To be sure, this demand trend
                                                                 APAC region, periodic amendments to manage
    for online distribution is widely-recognised by both
                                                                 housing affordability and investor demand (and
    investors and developers, prompting an aggressive
                                                                 particularly Chinese cross-border capital flows into
    supply response across the APAC region in both
                                                                 residential markets) are highly-visible and disruptive
    high-growth markets (tracking the pace of consumer
                                                                 drivers of residential pricing cycles across the
    spending growth and infrastructure roll-out) and
                                                                 region, including China, Hong Kong, Singapore
    even low-growth markets (to upgrade and replace
                                                                 and Australia.
    obsolete capacity).

                                                                       O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S   23
                                                                                                   MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Alternative real estate sectors remain clearly on the         •   Senior care / healthcare are both sectors facing
investment radar, although finding sufficient scale and           very strong growth prospects, reflecting the impact
comfort on operating exposures are key considerations             of the ageing population in driving sustained
in these smaller, but swiftly-growing, real estate                demand and rising incomes in supporting relative
market segments.                                                  affordability of care. The key issue for this sector
                                                                  remains the potential for reputational risk from
•   Hotels remains a small and highly-specialised
                                                                  operators and finding sufficient scale in a relatively
    investment sector. Assets in this segment continue
                                                                  small, nascent market segment, particularly in
    to be popular, particularly with high net worth
                                                                  the Asia-Pacific region where there are very few
    investors, who are driving very tight pricing. In
                                                                  operating platforms of scale.
    our view, the key factor in this segment is finding
    sufficient risk-adjusted returns for landlords, given
                                                              •   Data centres also face robust demand growth,
    the nature of operating contracts that preferentially
                                                                  given the strength of take-up for data-intensive
    benefit hotel operators, typically at the expense of
                                                                  services, whether through e-commerce,
    real asset owners.
                                                                  m-commerce or cloud-computing services. The
                                                                  real estate component is relatively simple, with
•   Student accommodation is a swiftly-growing
                                                                  the sector’s profitability more affected by power
    real estate segment, particularly given the rapid
                                                                  costs and operational reliability. For major hi-tech
    increases in household incomes and student
                                                                  corporations, there is scope to leverage self-use to
    mobility. In many ways, this is a neat real estate play
                                                                  seed occupancy. As with other alternatives, finding
    to capture emerging market student and income
                                                                  scale is a challenge.
    growth (from China and India) in more-established
    real estate markets (like Australia and Singapore).
    Finding sufficient scale and occupancy (amidst
    spot instances of oversupply) are the key investor
    considerations in this expanding sector.

24 A SIA PACIF IC R E A L E STAT E
                                                                                                   MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S   25
                            MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
The
investment
   thesis

             MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
Why invest in Asia Pacific                                              •                   Markets are growing swiftly in size. With rapid growth
                                                                                            in APAC activity and incomes, there is a correspondingly
real estate?                                                                                robust expansion in the APAC institutional-grade real
                                                                                            estate market as well. Real estate markets in the APAC
There is a compelling and enduring growth story. First
                                                                                            region are estimated to be around 29% of the global
and foremost, the relatively firmer APAC growth outlook
                                                                                            institutional market in 2018 and rising rapidly. On current
provides strong fundamental support for space demand
                                                                                            growth projections, this would see the APAC region
and investment returns.
                                                                                            overtake Europe in size by 2020 and North America in
•     Durable outperformance in growth ahead. As                                            size by 2022. For investors, there is an escalating risk
      noted in the outlook section, APAC economic                                           that, given any static or lagging allocation, typical real
      growth is expected to remain firm (2019-23: 4.6%                                      estate portfolios would grow increasingly underweight
      p.a.), more than doubling the pace expected for                                       on the APAC region, in the context of regional growth
      either Europe (1.7% p.a.) or North America (1.9%                                      and investment opportunities.
      p.a.). It is not just China and India, with relatively
                                                                        •                   Growth begets market returns. It is not just about
      firmer growth in mature markets like Australia, South
                                                                                            market size, as stronger demand growth provides a basis
      Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore – while Japan
                                                                                            for stronger investment returns. At a very simple level,
      is a notable exception here. It is not just measures
                                                                                            economic growth is well-correlated with investment
      of broad economic activity either, with relatively
                                                                                            returns over any lengthy time span. At a pragmatic level,
      stronger growth for APAC in population, consumer
                                                                                            other facets of growth, including tenant and investor
      spending, e-commerce spending, household
                                                                                            demand also matter significantly for returns. To be clear
      incomes and external trade compared to Western
                                                                                            though, growth drives unlevered returns. The level
      advanced economies.27
                                                                                            of interest rates (and available leverage) also matter
                                                                                            significantly for levered returns, especially in a low-rate
                                                                                            and high-spread markets like Japan.

Figure 13: Firmer APAC growth will drive a sustained lift               Figure 14: Historically, stronger GDP growth translated
in relative market size                                                 to firmer unlevered asset returns

Share of real estate market (investment grade, % share)                 GDP growth & office returns (2008-17, %p.a.)
50%                                                                                         20%
                                                                                                                                                Guangzhou
              Projections                         Asia Pacific
                                                                                                                                       Beijing                    nd
                                                                                                                                                               tre
40                                                                                          15                                                            on
                                                                                                                                                      ati
                   2022                                                                                                    Hong Kong
                                                                                                                                                  rrel           Shenzhen
                                                                      Office total return

                                                                                                                                               Co
                                                                                                                             Sydney
30                                   North America                                                       Adelaide
                                                                                            10
                                                                                                                            Melbourne
                                                                                                            Seoul                                            Shanghai
                                                                                                            Taipei
               2020                                   Europe                                                                       Singapore
20                                                                                           5    Osaka
                                                                                                                                   Perth

                                                                                                               Tokyo        Brisbane
10                                                                                           0

     2016       2020        2024       2028       2032         2036                              -2        0           2       4           6             8           10   12%

                                                                                                                           Real GDP growth

Source: IMF, PGIM, BlackRock (January 2019)                             Source: JLL REIS, Oxford Economics, BlackRock
There is no guarantee that forecasts will come to pass.                 (January 2019)

27 Source: IMF, BlackRock (January 2019).

                                                                                                      O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S                     27
                                                                                                                                           MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
The real estate markets of APAC provide deep and                                               sources of market arbitrage. Namely, many private
 diverse opportunity sets as well, in the form of                                               investors in the region simply lack professional
 divergent market cycles, potential diversification                                             asset management skills. Nearly all core investors
 benefits and persistent scope for market arbitrage.                                            are not in a position to take any degree of leasing,
                                                                                                restructuring or refurbishment risks to enhance
 •                Divergent trends form a powerful diversification
                                                                                                asset values. Major markets like Japan and China
                  story. The wide range of different APAC real estate
                                                                                                are not readily accessible and heavily segmented,
                  markets, in differing stages of economic development
                                                                                                requiring deep local relationships to source off-
                  and market cycles, provide clear choices in terms of
                                                                                                market transactions or financing on good terms.
                  market and sector exposures. At any given point in
                  time, there are apparent cyclical shifts in demand
                                                                                       •        There is considerable value in manager selection.
                  momentum, which allows for active lease management
                                                                                                In this regard, there is a critical requirement for
                  near-term. Meanwhile, forthcoming supply additions,
                                                                                                local operations and local staff. More so than North
                  which are often well-telegraphed two or more years in
                                                                                                America and Europe, fly-in / fly-out operations are
                  advance, permit genuine value-adding opportunities
                                                                                                simply not viable in Asian markets, particularly given
                  from market, sub-market and sector selection.
                                                                                                significant differences in language, culture and
                                                                                                business norms. Moreover, the set of investment
 •                Market inefficiencies provide scope for arbitrage.
                                                                                                managers in Asia is considerably thinner than other
                  While market transparency measures are improving
                                                                                                major regions, especially those with an established
                  broadly across the region, there remains some
                                                                                                track record of performance and delivering returns.
                  market inefficiencies that provide persistent

 Figure 15: Historically, APAC markets have delivered                                  Figure 16: Returns diverged in downturns, reflecting
 higher returns with lower volatility                                                  market / asset / manager selection

 Historical risks and returns (10 years to 2017)                                       Asia Pacific total returns (quartile range, USD)

                 10%                                                                       20%
                                                                                                           Top quartile of returns
                               China
                                                                                       15
                                                   Australia
                  8                               Canada
                                                New Zealand
                       S. Korea                                                        10
                                                Taiwan               North   UK
Annual returns

                             Singapore                             America
                                             Asia Pacific
                  6                                                                        5
                                                          France             US
                           Germany                Europe
                                                                                           0
                                       Netherlands                                                                  Average
                  4
                                                                                           -5
                             Italy            Japan

                                                                                                        Bottom quartile of returns
                                                                                       -10
                  2

                       0               3              6              9            12             2007       2009       2011          2013    2015     2017

                                           Standard deviation (%)

 Source: MSCI IPD, BlackRock (January 2019)                                            Source: MSCI IPD, BlackRock (January 2019)
 MSCI annual index. The figures relate to past                                         MSCI annual index. The figures relate to past
 performance. Past performance is not a reliable                                       performance. Past performance is not a reliable
 indicator of current or future results. Indexes are                                   indicator of current or future results. Indexes are
 unmanaged and does not reflect fees. It is not                                        unmanaged and does not reflect fees. It is not
 possible to invest directly in an index.                                              possible to invest directly in an index.

 28 A SIA PACIF IC R E A L E STAT E
                                                                                                                                      MKTG0219A-668707-2292648
What are the risks to                                              Chongqing, Nanjing, Wuhan and Xi’an. Tokyo
                                                                   and Seoul face very specific supply pressures, for
the outlook?                                                       premium CBD office stock and industrial space
                                                                   more broadly. Ultimately, these risks plays out on
All markets carry risk and this region is no different.
                                                                   occupancy and rental incomes. For core investors,
What are the risks to the APAC regional outlook
                                                                   securing long-dated occupancy is a critical pre-
ahead? What could go wrong? What strategies and
                                                                   condition of entry into well-supplied markets. At the
opportunities may arise as a result?
                                                                   same time, value-add investors may draw additional
•   Further escalation in the US-China trade dispute will          entry discounts in markets with looming supply,
    have broad regional impacts, dampening Chinese                 but only if there is a viable active leasing strategy to
    exports to the United States in 2019. Announced                restore occupancy.
    measures affect $250 billion of Chinese exports
    and will likely reduce growth in China by 0.3%. This       •   Meanwhile, the fortunes of the global economy

    comes at a time of ongoing restructuring in China,             remain a factor for the outlook. The US economy

    as activity shifts from manufacturing to services and          is tracking strongly for now, but there are risks

    from rust-belt to coastal service hubs. More broadly,          from rising funding costs. Large and widening

    lost manufacturing production in China will likely             US fiscal deficits (FY19: US$900 billion, FY20:
    divert to other Asian manufacturers (rather than               US $1 trillion)29 are adding to near-term activity, but

    the US), potentially adding to production in Japan,            raises concerns about the capacity for counter-cyclical

    South Korea and Singapore (for advanced goods)                 fiscal policy in the future. The eventual shape of the

    and Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia (for more cost-            Brexit arrangement is still uncertain, three months

    sensitive production lines).28                                 ahead of the deadline. Mounting fiscal deficits and
                                                                   rising populism in Italy are raising questions about
•   Chinese corporate debt levels are elevated. Amidst             ongoing stability of the broader Eurozone.
    an ongoing round of financial sector reforms and
    credit rationing, private non-financial debt ratios        While there are legitimate risks to the regional outlook,
    have peaked (167% of GDP in Q2 2016), before               there are also sensationalised news headlines in the
    trending down modestly since (164% of GDP in               press as well. What common myths need debunking?
    Q1 2018). The clampdown on shadow banking
                                                               •   Are there ghost cities across China?
    channels are re-routing borrowers into the official
                                                                   Ordos City in Inner Mongolia was widely reported
    system. Even so, both bank and non-bank credit
                                                                   as a ghost city in 2009, funded by a coal mining
    ratios are stabilising. Tighter credit availability will
                                                                   boom and curtailed by a water shortage in a
    add funding pressures for developers and landlords,
                                                                   desert environment. The city planned for 300,000
    providing a potential source of transactions. That
                                                                   residents over a 20-year development timeframe.
    said, these credit restrictions may ease in 2019 if
                                                                   This city now has around 153,000 residents,
    the economy slows and these capital constraints
                                                                   with house prices up 50% since 2015. This is
    become overly tight.
                                                                   perhaps a poignant illustration of the pace of both
                                                                   development supply and population-led demand
•   Rapid supply gains present risks in spot markets.
                                                                   in China and how infrastructure delays
    In broad terms, Chinese office and retail markets
                                                                   can have significant impacts on take-up in
    face abundant supply, more so in Tier-2 cities like
                                                                   greenfield developments.30

28 Source: ANZ Research, BlackRock (January 2019). 29 Source: US Congressional Budget Office
(August 2018), BlackRock (January 2019). 30 Source: Forbes (June 2017), BlackRock (January 2019).

                                                                         O P P O RT U NI T I E S I N DY NAMI C MAR K ET S    29
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•   Is growth real in China? GDP measures are                  •   Are there housing price bubbles in Asia? Buoyant
    imperfect estimates of economic activity. In China,            housing price gains have raised questions about
    investors are uncertain if official statistics provide a       housing affordability and the prospects of regional
    fair representation on the state of the economy. For           pricing bubbles. Certainly, price gains have been
    this reason, analysts also review so-called Li indices         aggressive given rising incomes and low interest
    (named after index proponent Premier Li Keqiang)               rates. However, bubbles do not deflate periodically;
    which encompasses easily measurable indicators                 bubbles pop after a big and long run-up. In this
    like electricity consumption, railway cargo freight            context, there is modest price deflation underway in
    and bank loans. For the record, these tangible                 Australia (2011-12, 2018) and Hong Kong (2018-19),
    measures are broadly consistent with recent GDP                following modest price falls in Singapore (2016-
    figures and actually show some encouraging signs               17), China (2014-15, 2017-18) and Japan (2011-12).
    of improvement in mid-2018.      31
                                                                   Ultimately, small periodic price corrections are
                                                                   healthy for sustaining affordability and reduce
                                                                   the risk of a pricing bubble and a larger, more
                                                                   disruptive correction.32

31 Source: Asia Times (July 2018), Bloomberg, St Louis Federal Reserve, BlackRock (January 2019).
32 Source: ABS, BIS, Bloomberg, HK Rating & Valuation Department, BlackRock (January 2019).

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