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EXTRACT FROM THE ASTANA CLUB TOP 10 RISKS FOR EURASIA 2021
RISK 9 DIGITAL TOTALITARIANISM Source: Shutterstock Author: Mopic
"BRAVE NEW WORLD"
DIGITAL 9
TOTALITARIANISM RISK The pandemic was the starting point for
the finalization of the Data Economy and
The pandemic has demonstrated Data Society. At the center of the new
convincingly the fact that technologies format of the economic structure and
designed to facilitate communication business models is the digitized
are actively used to massively and personality.
uncontrollably collect personal
information from the population. Personal data is becoming the main
economic category: the "oil of the XXI
As a result of the colossal concentration century." In the new digital society, the
of personal data in the hands of global main task is to establish control over
players in the information technology information by analogy with managing
market, “digital control” over the lives of the flows of world finance and natural
citizens becomes total, actively invading resources.
the jurisdictions of nation states around
the world. The largest players in the digital
information market, such as Facebook,
In 2021, the countries of Eurasia will face Apple, Google, Tencent and others,
a difficult choice of format and model for accumulate colossal streams of
their further digital transformation from metadata on their platforms,
complete market freedom in the digital simultaneously exerting a large-scale
sphere to a more rigid and unambiguous impact on social, cultural and even
definition of the boundaries of digital political processes in societies around
sovereignty. the world.
TOP-10 SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS RANKED BY NUMBER
OF GLOBAL USERS Based in:
Facebook 2,7 billion
YouTube 2b
Whatsapp 2b
Messenger (FB) 1,3 b
WeChat 1,2 b
Instagram 1,2 b
TikTok 689 m
Tencent QQ 648 m
Douyin 600 m
Weibo 523 m
Source: Data Reportal
RISK 9 - DIGITAL TOTALITARIANISM 71
A fivefold increase in the volume of data
generated by government services, Steve Durbin,
companies and citizens by 2025 will Managing Director
allow the owners of information "banks" of the Information
of data to obtain an unprecedented level Security Forum
of access to a person's private life in
history.
Highly connected ecosystems of digital
devices will enable the harvest,
The monopoly control of IT corporations
repurpose and sale of sensitive
over the activities of leading social behavioural data about individuals
networks already allows them, at their without their consent. There are also a
own discretion, to determine permissible growing number of sectors that will see
content, block unwanted information an increased dependency on
and shape public opinion. Respect for behavioural analytics, including finance,
the right to free speech in the Internet healthcare and education.
age is no longer guaranteed. Examples of
blocking accounts and deleting posts for With the introduction of 5G technologies
political reasons, even by heads of state, and the expansion of the range of
make ordinary users dependent on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications,
ideological attitudes and preferences of the profile of any person will be
commercial companies. If states do not integrated with data from the Internet of
find tools to influence IT giants, the Things, report cards in an educational
prospect of maintaining "digital institution, a medical record, etc.
sovereignty" for each individual country
will tend to zero. "Splicing" a person with digital gadgets
leads to the fact that now computer
PERSONALITY TRANSFORMATION algorithms make decisions for the user
themselves. At the same time, the
The global process of human digitization recommendatory nature of the proposals
has successfully passed the stage of can easily be replaced by a mandatory
creating a "digital avatar" and moved on one.
to the stage of filling the "digital profile".
The mechanisms of "compulsory
In addition to the primary data on the medicine" are already being worked out
place of birth and residence, marital as part of the fight against the spread of
status and property, the profile is COVID-19. China's Health Code app,
"overgrown" with information from the European Gateway, and Apple's and
credit dossier, police databases and Google's apps that track coronavirus
video surveillance systems, information transmission highlight the potential for
about the nature of relationships with digital surveillance for medical purposes.
relatives and neighbors, participation in As a result, the ever-increasing access to
charity and other events. personal information on the part of IT
giants and individual states allows them
In fact, citizens are no longer required to to launch large-scale behavioral
consent to the collection of information, programming processes.
which is non-stop using Wi-Fi networks,
The example of China, which has created
video cameras with face recognition
a social rating system for its population,
technologies, biometric scanners, QR
clearly demonstrates the possibilities of
codes, etc.
new digital technologies
72 RISK 9 - DIGITAL TOTALITARIANISM
This social experiment on behavioral The formation of an "improved" citizen
programming of more than a billion who accepts the new rules of the game
inhabitants of the world's largest country in exchange for comfort and various
by population is unprecedented in scale preferences in social life establishes a
and nature. person's total information transparency
in front of corporations that control
Vladimir Yakunin, information flows.
Head of the
Department of State BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING
Policy, Faculty of
Political Science,
The situation with the COVID-19
Lomonosov Moscow
pandemic has rapidly increased the pace
State University
of adoption of digital behavioral
monitoring technologies around the
Signs of total digital control are already world. The introduction of 5G technology
present in most countries where the and the emergence of super-speeds for
Internet and social networks are
data transfer are giving an
widespread. The key issue is to regulate
these technologies, to ensure their unprecedented boost to video analytics.
safety. Traditionally, this has been the
responsibility of the state.
CCTV: THE MOST SURVEILLED CITIES IN THE WORLD
Cities with the most surveillence cameras per 1000 inhabitants in 2020
taiyuan 119,6
wuxi 92,1
london 67,5
changsha 56,8
beijing 56,2
hangzhou 52,3
kunming 45,0
qingdao 44,5
xiamen 40,3
harbin 39,1
suzhou 38,2
shanghai 37,0
Source: Comparitech
RISK 9 - DIGITAL TOTALITARIANISM 73Thus, the global video surveillance storage services outside state borders,
market will have increased by $36 billion which raises serious questions about
by 2024 with an average annual growth ensuring national information security. In
of about 12%. fact, we are talking about the fact that
the ownership of digital technologies
In Europe and North America alone, guarantees control over those who use
camera numbers are projected to grow these technologies. As a result, the
by 18% annually, resulting in 420 million rapidly emerging global digital space
camera installations by 2024. Already presupposes the integration of states
today, about 200 million cameras have into the system of the new business
been installed in totally digitalized model of IT giants, and not vice versa.
China, which makes it possible to make
massive use of face recognition
technology. Today, 18 of the 20 most FORECASTS
“watched” cities in the world are located
in the PRC.
The pace of global digital transformation
Modern smartphones also offer in 2021 and the coming years will
unprecedented opportunities for accelerate exponentially across the
collecting information about their users entire world. The pandemic has only
and the social environment around become a catalyst for a long-standing
them. According to statistics provided by process of creating a digital system for
monitoring human behavior on a global
Exodus Privacy, almost every Android
scale.
application contains at least one tracker,
which is responsible for advertising,
authorization and analytics. The race for biometric and other
personal data will intensify the
widespread intervention of the world's
At the same time, the technical "stuffing"
leading players in the digital industry.
of the digital platforms used allows data
to be transferred to servers and cloud
THE SMARTPHONE DUOPOLY
Worldwide smartphone market share by operating system
4,9% 16,0% 15,2%
Windows Phone BlackBerry iOS
23,3%
Android
iOS 15,6%
1 285
m
2020
305
m 40,2%
2010 Others
84,8%
Source: IDC Android
74 RISK 9 - DIGITAL TOTALITARIANISMFurther use of the accumulated volume The success of different states' attempts
of personal data turns into a powerful to ensure the "nationalization" and
tool for behavioral engineering of the protection of the personal data of their
population by the leading global IT population will directly depend on
monopolists. In these conditions, the whether a particular country has the
process of merging the interests of ability to create its own technological
technological giants with the interests solutions and standards in the digital
and needs of states of their main sphere. In fact, access to modern
jurisdiction will continue, including in technological developments in the field
solving foreign policy problems, of Big Data, artificial intelligence and 5G
economic and ideological expansion. is becoming the most important
Already today, there are active attempts guarantee of survival in the increasingly
to use popular social networks and aggressive space of digital geopolitical
instant messengers to influence social, competition. Players who are lagging
cultural and political processes in a behind in the digital race will eventually
number of countries around the world. be deprived of the opportunity to fully
ensure their own sovereignty, turning
However, against this background, the into “digital colonies” of the leaders of
response to the strengthening of the global technological race.
national "digital sovereignty" within state
borders will continue to be reinforced.
The examples of Turkey and other
countries that are legally trying to
introduce rules and restrictions for global
social networks on their territory speak of
the formation of a new sustainable trend
in the Eurasian space - digital
sovereignty.
5G TECHNOLOGY
5G networks
launched
5G technology
deployed
investment in 5G
Source: GSA 5G Market Snapshot
RISK 9 - DIGITAL TOTALITARIANISM 75Steve Durbin About the Information
Chief Executive Security Forum
Information Security Forum (ISF) Founded in 1989, the ISF
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