BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF - Longer-term trends and priorities for UN agencies in Darfur
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF
Longer-term trends and priorities for UN agencies in Darfur
United Nations
SudanUnited Nations
Sudan
Office of the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator
Ebeid Khatim Street
PO Box 69
Khartoum 11111
Sudan
September 2010'$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF &217(176
&217(176
Executive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
TRENDS
Environmental change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Climate change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Human impact on the environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Demographic shifts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Population growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Youth bulge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Urbanization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Institutions and governance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Marginalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Internal institutional breakdown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
PRIORITIES
Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Major priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Livelihoods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Rural livelihoods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Urban livelihoods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Major priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Education and human capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Major priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Governance and capacity development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Major priorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46(;(&87,9(6800$5< '$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF
(;(&87,9(6800$5<
Planning for longer-term sustainability in Darfur
This document promotes mid- and longer-term planning also been poorly managed. Water resources can be difficult
among UN agencies in order to help Darfur move towards to access and are strained by increased population densities.
greater sustainability. Far from comprehensive, the Water tables have fallen rapidly in some areas – including by
document identifies major trends and priorities where 10 metres around El Fasher since 2007 – indicating a need for
more robust engagement can have a substantial impact. better management.
Specifically, the document focuses on technical areas
where UN agencies possess significant expertise, but Demographic shifts
that have received only some attention so far. Trends and Darfur has undergone major demographic shifts over the last
priorities were determined over nine months of research generation. These shifts have complicated the region’s abil-
and consultations with UN agencies, governments, donors ity to absorb the effects of environmental change and poor
and civil society. The resolution of key political challenges governance. Demographic shifts are chiefly visible in three
– including a lasting peace agreement – is also critical to areas: population growth, a youth bulge and urbanization.
Darfur’s future. This document focuses on vital technical
priorities, however, and does not address political issues Since 1973, Darfur’s population has grown almost six-fold, to
directly. All activities outlined in the document are intended roughly 7.5 million people. At historic growth rates, the area
to complement ongoing humanitarian assistance efforts. could be home to 12 million people by 2025. Large popu-
Implementation should begin in areas where conditions lation increases translate into corresponding demands for
allow, expanding as conditions improve elsewhere. services and opportunities that the region is ill-equipped to
meet. Darfur is home to a high concentration of youth – 52
Trends percent of Darfuris are no older than 16 years. This youth
Three major trends are analysed in this document: environ- bulge creates enormous pressure to provide education and
mental change, demographic shifts, and institutions and other opportunities for young people. Over the last genera-
governance. Each of these trends has significantly contrib- tion, urbanization has also increased and was forcibly accel-
uted to conflict and vulnerability in Darfur, and the recent erated by the conflict. Fifty percent of Darfuris now live in and
crisis has intensified many of them. around major cities, or along the axes that link them. Urban-
ization offers several potential benefits, including increased
Environmental change proximity to services, but cities must be adequately equipped
Environmental degradation has intensified in recent years, to provide for residents in order to reap these benefits.
undermining Darfur’s future prospects. This degradation
is chiefly driven by two forces: climate change and human Institutions and governance
impact on the environment. Weak governance undermines Darfur’s ability to confront
major changes and effectively manage associated tensions.
Climate change is a natural process over which local people Overall, institutions in Darfur – both in government and civil
have little control. In Darfur, this is chiefly visible in more society – have performed below required capacity, primarily
erratic rainfall, which has led to increased drought severity as a result of two issues: marginalization and an internal insti-
and frequency. In North Darfur, 20 of the 25 driest years on tutional breakdown.
record have occurred since 1972. Climate change has under-
mined agriculture and encouraged conflict, as well as led to Darfur has historically been marginalized. Low fiscal transfers
maladaptive coping strategies, such as deforestation. from the centre and poor access to services best illustrate
the impact of marginalization since Sudan’s independence.
Human impact on the environment exacerbates the effects of In 2008, Darfur’s state governments received only 21 percent
climate change. This impact is mainly visible in three areas: of the budget for which they had planned, although this repre-
deforestation, aggressive agriculture, and water manage- sents an increase over earlier years. Lack of funding and
ment. An earlier trend towards deforestation has been accel- capacity gaps constrain local governments’ ability to meet
erated by the conflict, as people clear trees, mainly for fuel people’s needs, contributing to poor development indicators
and construction. Some forests around major cities have in many sectors.
disappeared entirely. Aggressive agriculture – over-cultivation
and over-grazing – was a serious issue before the conflict that Internally, Darfur has seen a protracted breakdown in its
pressured livelihoods and fuelled disputes. Farmers often institutions. This breakdown is most visible when examining
cultivated land without rest and expanded planting areas to local governments and land tenure regulations. Modernization
the detriment of grazing land and forests. Pastoralists grazed drives in the 1970s mostly replaced traditional structures with
herds on smaller tracts that could not support them. Water has new institutions. These replacements largely failed to deliver'$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF (;(&87,9(6800$5<
benefits to the local population, however. As a result, trust in 6. Improve agricultural practices – including demarcation of
institutions diminished, and a dual system emerged in which migration routes – through training and other activities;
neither modern nor traditional institutions fully command 7. Invest in agriculture – including agro-forestry and semi-
popular trust or participation. mechanized farming – as a way to encourage sustainable
rural livelihoods;
Priorities 8. Introduce better agricultural risk management – including
In order to help address the trends destabilizing Darfur, this crop insurance;
document identifies four major priorities for mid- and longer- 9. Strengthen links to markets by working to develop a more
term planning among UN agencies: environment, livelihoods, pro-poor value chain;
education and human capital, as well as governance and 10. Promote urban planning and private sector development.
capacity building. Ultimately, all progress is the responsibil-
ity of local communities, their leaders and the Government Education and human capital
of Sudan. UN agencies can support the fulfilment of these
Given Darfur’s challenges, education will be key to moving
responsibilities by leveraging resources and expertise.
the region out of crisis. Besides teaching, schools also play
a critical role in child protection and can provide a minimum
Environment
package of services in other sectors. Efforts should focus on
Strengthening environmental management is critical to resolv-
primary and secondary schools, as well as vocational and
ing the current crisis and promoting durable solutions for the
alternative training. Major priorities include:
region. Major priorities include:
1. Support efforts to close the primary school enrolment gap
1. Support better management of forestry resources by
between Darfur and other northern states;
engaging officials and communities;
2. Promote inclusive management of water resources and 2. Promote access to vocational training and alternative
improve water harvesting and access; learning opportunities, particularly literacy and numeracy;
3. Promote the use of alternative energy and technology – 3. Support greater access to secondary education;
particularly for construction; 4. Work with partners to improve the quality of education,
4. Support greater community engagement through outreach focusing on the student-teacher ratio, teacher training and
and the development of environmental action plans; infrastructure;
5. Strengthen official capacity to lead environmental moni- 5. Collaborate to ensure that schools provide a minimum
toring, research and policy development. package of child-friendly services;
6. Bolster the capacity of education officials.
Livelihoods
Livelihoods are undergoing a substantial shift in Darfur. Rural Governance and capacity building
livelihoods, routinely targeted during the conflict, mostly Strengthening governance, particularly at the local level,
comprise farming, livestock and forestry. Urban livelihoods is essential to future sustainability. Better governance must
are mostly based on agricultural services or processing. In include more reliable basic services, a strong to the rule of
rural and urban areas, many people have turned to unsustain- law, and robust community involvement. UN agencies should
able livelihoods – like the sale of firewood – in the absence
engage officials and civil society together, all within a frame-
of other opportunities. Short-term initiatives should promote
work that emphasizes peacebuilding. Major priorities include:
temporary employment while continuing to develop longer-
term strategies. Major priorities include:
1. Strengthen the role of civil society in governance – espe-
cially in advocating priorities;
1. Support large-scale, temporary employment programmes,
2. Improve civil society’s ability to resolve disputes and
such as food-for-work;
2. Supply farmers and pastoralists with critical inputs that promote justice;
will boost production; 3. Strengthen the capacity of technical ministries at the state
3. Strengthen markets across Darfur to serve as social and and locality levels in order to improve service delivery;
economic anchors; 4. Build stronger capacity for public management and coor-
4. Encourage greater security for livelihoods by working with dination in state governments;
UNAMID to increase patrols; 5. Strengthen the official justice sector and the rule of law,
5. Improve access to finance – particularly for small farmers including human rights.
and entrepreneurs;,1752'8&7,21 '$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF
,1752'8&7,21
Beyond emergency relief: Longer-term trends and priorities for UN agencies in Darfur
Darfur remains beset by serious, immediate challenges Environment
– the legacy of a conflict that has evolved significantly
Climate change in Darfur has disrupted people’s lives
since 2003, but continues to threaten the well-being of
by curtailing the availability of resources, thereby spur-
millions of Darfuris. These challenges demand rapid,
ring greater competition and conflict. Confronted with the
ongoing response – in food, health, water and shelter,
consequences of a brutal war, many people have embraced
for example – to keep people alive and meet their most
coping strategies – clearing forests to power the kilns for
basic needs. But in many ways, today’s emergencies are fire bricks, for example – that have accelerated the impact
symptoms of long-standing trends – protracted crises in of climate change and indirectly perpetuated a root cause
the environment, demographics and governance – that of the conflict. Reversing this damage will be essential to
contributed to the recent conflict and have intensified as Darfur’s sustainability in the longer-term. UN agencies can
a result of it. As the international community considers offer significant support for this process by promoting better
what Darfur needs to move beyond emergencies and relief, environmental management and empowering communities to
engaging these trends will be critical. Going forward, confront climate-related vulnerability.
assistance efforts will increasingly be confronted with
a fundamental question: how can 8 million people live
Livelihoods
sustainably in Darfur?
Adapting livelihoods in Darfur will be critical to supporting
longer-term stability, given the need to develop dependable
Recent deteriorations in security and unresolved political
means of self-sufficiency for the region’s rapidly growing
issues – not least of which is the lack of a peace agreement
population. Rural livelihoods are likely to continue to gener-
– may make this question seem premature. But whether a last-
ate substantial wealth and deserve significant attention,
ing settlement comes tomorrow or not at all, Darfur cannot
particularly in terms of environmental renewal and balancing
afford to defer questions on how to repair its ecosystem,
the needs of farmers and pastoralists. But as Darfur’s cities
manage a rapidly changing population or mend its institu-
continue to grow, efforts to rehabilitate and expand urban
tions. As these trends accelerate, driven by natural processes
livelihoods will also be crucial. UN agencies can best assist
and human impact, the potential result is harrowing: mount-
local stakeholders in this process by drawing on successful
ing competition over dwindling resources that will suffocate
experience in economic planning, employment generation
opportunity, fuel conflict and leave Darfur mired in tragedy.
and agricultural development, among other key areas.
Addressing these issues is enormously complex – a fact
that underscores the need to start planning early. But this
Education and human capital
complexity also indicates that in moving ahead, the interna- Access to education in Darfur has expanded somewhat,
tional community must have a clear sense of where it can be but the public sector remains ill-equipped to accommodate
most helpful – and where it cannot. For the United Nations, all school-aged children. An effective, accessible education
this means prioritizing areas where UN agencies have a system – including primary, secondary and vocational school-
distinct advantage in expertise, presence and partnerships, ing – is crucial to building the human capital that Darfuris will
while recognizing that progress ultimately depends on local require to realize their ambitions and confront longer-term
communities, their leaders and the Government of Sudan. challenges. Education can also play an important role in
promoting reconciliation, as well as facilitating the availabil-
Towards that end, the UN has identified four priorities that ity of basic services to students. Working with local govern-
have received only some attention to date, and that could ments, UN agencies can translate significant strengths in
benefit from greater engagement in the longer term. These education and training into support for Darfuri learners and
priorities – the environment, livelihoods, education and gover- the institutions that are responsible for them.
nance – represent the outcome of nine months of research
and consultations that included UN agencies, government Governance and capacity development
officials, donors and civil society. Taken together, they offer Good governance, particularly at the local level, is key to
an initial strategy to ground future planning efforts and managing the major challenges facing Darfur. Building insti-
support Darfur in moving towards greater sustainability. To tutions that reflect and respond to communities’ needs and
be successful, these efforts must consider the needs of all 8 aspirations will be critical to transforming civil society into an
million residents of Darfur, including – but not limited to – the effective advocate of local priorities, as well as building local
area’s two million IDPs and a total of four million recipients of governments that will act as stewards of peace and prosperity.
humanitarian aid. Achieving this outcome will require rigorous capacity building
efforts that involve both civil society and local officials, includ-'$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF ,1752'8&7,21
ing attention to local governments’ relations with Khartoum. document highlights four technical priorities – environment,
Demonstrated experience with successful capacity develop- livelihoods, education and governance – where greater UN
ment programmes in Sudan – including in Darfur – indicates agency engagement can have a substantial impact. These
that UN agencies can add significant value to this process. priorities emphasize UN agencies’ recognized expertise, as
well as reflect likely funding availability. As a result, some
Structure and approach important technical issues, such as large-scale infrastructure
Planning with a longer horizon in Darfur is intended to comple- improvements, are not directly addressed. The four priorities
ment the current commitment to humanitarian assistance, a are mainly presented at a general level, offering initial recom-
vital enterprise in the lives of some 4 million people. On a mendations that can help ground future planning efforts.
parallel track, international and national actors must take Individual agencies often already possess or are developing
steps to ensure that humanitarian accomplishments can be detailed action plans within these priorities.
leveraged into longer-term progress. In so doing, a sophisti-
cated sense of timing and location – when and where certain Beyond technical priorities, critical political issues – includ-
programmes can move ahead, and others cannot – will be ing land tenure, the fate of IDPs and the peace process –
imperative, particularly in light of fluctuating security, limited are fundamental to Darfur’s longer-term sustainability. These
access, and unresolved political questions. These factors are concerns will require resolution through an equitable political
critical to determining when implementation is appropriate, process, however, which lies mostly outside the scope of this
but they should not divert attention from Darfur’s longer-term document. Instead, the technical priorities discussed here are
priorities altogether. Humanitarian programmes have already intended to complement the international community’s efforts
made great strides in meeting people’s needs, and in many to support a just and lasting political settlement. As a result,
cases already support projects that look to the future. Broad- when peace does come, UN agencies will stand ready to
ening these efforts into sustainable progress for Darfur consti- assist Darfur in moving quickly and decisively towards stabil-
tutes a responsible extension of this approach. ity and prosperity for all its citizens.
This document identifies and analyses several destabilizing
trends in Darfur, focusing on developments in the environment,
demographics and governance that have significantly contrib-
uted to vulnerability. Far from a comprehensive account, the75(1'6 '$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF
'$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF 75(1'6
TRENDS
Environmental change
Climate change and human impact on the environment
Demographic shifts
Population growth, youth bulge and urbanization
Institutions and governance
Marginalization and internal breakdown75(1'6 '$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
(19,5210(17$/&+$1*(
Climate change and human impact on the environment
The environment in Darfur has declined rapidly in recent
Harvest failure (2000) Harvest failure (2050)
years, the cumulative effect of climate change and human
40% 70%
impact.1 Environmental concerns have often been at the
root of conflict in the area, as people – especially farmers
and pastoralists – clash over access to natural resources.
But the scale of recent degradation has eclipsed previous
25 - 70% harvest failure 40 - 85% harvest failure
shortages, severely destabilizing a fragile ecosystem
across Darfur today in Darfur projected by 2050
that for generations had balanced the needs of diverse
livelihoods. The implications include deteriorations in
Rainfall has always been somewhat erratic in Darfur, and a
the quality of life, such as access to water or forestry
history of regular drought has been a major contributor to
resources, as well as potentially irreversible damage to
conflict over time. In recent years, however, rain seems to
livelihoods and the spectre of nearly constant conflict.
fall with considerably less predictable frequency across the
Reversing this decline is critical to moving Darfur past the
region, the apparent result of climate change processes over
current crisis and ensuring its longer-term viability.
which Darfuris have little control. In North Darfur, for example,
20 of the 25 driest years on record have occurred since 1972.
The effects of climate change have been exacerbated by
As this trend has emerged, Darfur has also faced a period
man-made degradation. But these processes have also been
of rapid population growth that increased society’s overall
intensified by the absence of capable leadership, as well as
demand for water and other resources.
the pressures of population growth and urbanization. In devis-
ing strategies to address these developments, UN agencies Climate change and rainfall
should consider all the dynamics behind Darfur’s environmen- Annual rainfall in El Fasher, North Darfur (mm)
tal decline. This section outlines two principal factors driving 750
recent degradation: climate change and human impact.
500
Climate change
Located on the edge of the desert, Darfur’s ecosystem has
always been extremely delicate. Over time, this ecosystem 250
has sustained a predominantly rural society by offering
mostly adequate levels of rain, sun and soil fertility to support
0
a balance between pastoralists and farmers. Agriculture in
1910 1935 1960 1985 2010
Darfur depends almost exclusively on the environment, mean- Source: UNEP (2010).
ing that rain levels essentially determine the success or failure
of planters and herders in any given season. In the cities, More erratic rainfall in recent years has already had far reach-
rainfall is equally important, as it replenishes the water tables ing consequences. Drought has occurred with greater regu-
from which people access critical water supplies. larity and severity, for example, contributing to the frequent
failure of growing seasons across Darfur. Today, at least 30
1 In this document, “climate change” refers to natural processes in Darfur over which Darfuris
have little control, such as erratic rainfall. Consensus supports that climate change is a serious percent of harvests are estimated to fail in Darfur – a figure
issue in Darfur, at least at the regional level. More research may be required in order to establish
definitive links between global climate change processes and Darfur, however. that rises to at least 70 percent in the worst-hit areas, mostly
Climate change and growing seasons
Percentage of failed seasons in 2000 Percentage of failed seasons in 2050
0-10% 0-10%
10-25% 10-25%
25-40% 25-40%
40-55% 40-55%
55-70% 55-70%
70-85% 70-85%
85-N/A 85-N/A
Source: Adapted from ILRI/TERI, Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty in Africa (2006).'$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF 75(1'6
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
in North Darfur. Failed growing seasons dramatically increase essential to life in Darfur, but will require significant changes in
the likelihood of hunger and malnutrition, setting off a order to become sustainable.
search for alternatives that can foster conflict and encourage
maladaptive coping strategies. Drought-associated drops in In embracing such changes, Darfuris have been severely
the water supply can also threaten sanitation, potentially trig- handicapped by recent events, particularly a conflict that has
gering serious health risks. Overall, these effects have led to left some 2 million people displaced from their homes and
greater vulnerabilities in food, water, health and nutrition, as driven many to desperation. One result of this desperation has
well as protection risks stemming from increased conflict. been the adoption of maladaptive coping strategies - clear-
ing forests to access firewood, for example - that increase
Projections indicate that this process will intensify. According pressure on the environment, particularly around urban areas
to recent estimates, Darfuris will face a substantially greater and IDP camps. By perpetuating one of the main drivers of
risk of drought and associated threats over the next 30 years. conflict – environmental stress – this maladaptation under-
At current rates, this means that North Darfur could be essen- mines Darfur’s capacity to emerge from crisis.
tially barren by 2050, leading to a collapse of existing live-
lihoods that could result in conflict or large-scale migration. Deforestation
Even comparatively fertile South Darfur will see at least 40 Darfur has the last remaining substantial forest cover in north-
percent of all growing seasons fail by 2050 – a figure that ern Sudan. These forests face serious threats from agricul-
rises to at least 70 percent in half of the state’s territory. ture, population growth and the effects of conflict. Before the
war broke out, tree cover in Darfur was already declining, with
Altering the direction of climate change is essentially impos- forests contracting at an average annual rate of over 1 percent
sible for Darfur’s people. As a result, it is imperative that the between 1973 and 2006.2 Overall, Sudan has lost more forest
area embrace adaptive strategies that will mitigate the impact cover than any other African country, and Darfur is clearly a
of climate change and promote greater sustainability. Darfuris major contributor to this trend. In fact, some forests around
understand that their land is changing, and the vigour with cities like Nyala and El Geneina have disappeared entirely.
which they have embraced coping strategies – not always
positive – is indicative of their grasp of the situation. Work- The biggest culprit driving deforestation is the enormous
ing with local people to improve existing approaches to the demand for construction and firewood. Growing urbanization
environment can have a significant effect on tempering envi- has often translated into a construction boom around Darfur,
ronmental change. The largest opportunities here will come sending brick production soaring across the area. In Nyala
from addressing the human impact on the area’s ecosystem. alone, for example, brick production surged to almost 130
million in 2007. Making bricks requires large quantities of
Human impact on the environment wood to fuel kilns, which combined with domestic firewood
The deleterious effects of climate change are seriously needs, has resulted in highly unsustainable deforestation
compounded by the impact of humans on the environment. rates.3 In Kalma camp near Nyala, for example, IDPs could
To some extent, this impact is the predictable result of rapid once find adequate firewood within 15 kilometres. Today, they
population growth, as greater numbers of people consume must travel 75 kilometres for the same purpose, or rely on fire-
more resources. The ecosystem in Darfur, however, is particu- wood merchants who travel to them.4
larly ill-equipped to absorb such growth in the absence of
significant adaptations. Without positive changes, human Where people are still able to practise traditional rural liveli-
impact will combine with climate change to facilitate the hoods, pastoralists and farmers have also played an impor-
collapse of rural livelihoods and place untenable pressure on tant role in fuelling deforestation. Farmers, for example, have
urban areas. Human impact on the environment is most visi-
2 UNEP, Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment (2007).
ble in the following areas: deforestation, over-cultivation and 3 UNEP, Destitution, distortion and deforestation: The impact of conflict on the timber and wood
fuel trade in Darfur (2008a).
over-grazing, and water consumption. These activities are all 4 UNEP (2008a).
Deforestation Fire brick production
No country in Africa has lost more forest than Sudan Fire brick production surged
Loss of forest area 1990-2005 (million hectares) Number of bricks produced and taxed by FNC per year
Brazil 42.3
Year El Geneina El Fasher Nyala
Indonesia 28.1
Sudan 8.8
Pre-crisis 9,045,000 7,500,000
Myanmar 7.0 2004 1,215,000 2,359,000
DRC 6.9 2005 29,970,000 9,600,000 27,735,000
Zambia 6.7
2006 82,620,000
Tanzania 6.2
Nigeria 6.1 2007 40,780,000 15,200,000 129,630,000
Mexico 4.8
Zimbabwe 4.7
Source: FAO, Global Forest Resource Assessment (2006). Source: UNEP (2008a).75(1'6 '$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Deforestation (2004) Deforestation (2009) tained by demonstrating regular use. As a result, farmers see
clear incentives to plant as much land as possible without
15 km 75 km
rest, depleting the soil’s fertility. Recent estimates project that
an exhausted field would now require 12 to 15 years of lying
fallow in order to restore fertility in some areas, up from just 3 to
5 years in the 1970s.5 Policy also results in a lighter tax burden
Distance to travel from Distance to travel from
for farmers than for pastoralists, thereby encouraging farmers
Kalma for firewood in 2004 Kalma for firewood in 2009
to plant more.6 Constant cultivation undermines longer-term
productivity and strongly illustrates how human environmental
often cleared forests to claim new land for cultivation, or have
impact can worsen the effects of climate change.
supplemented income by selling firewood or charcoal. Similar
pressures on pastoralists have led to the same results, and
Related to this issue, many pastoralists have grazed too
many pastoralists take advantage of nomadic lifestyles to
many animals on insufficient land. Over-grazing eats away at
transport wood to urban areas where it is in short supply.
land productivity and accelerates erosion. As farmers have
expanded cultivated areas, pastoralists have crowded herds
Urbanization, population growth and the effects of climate
onto smaller parcels, increasing the pressure on these tracts.
change would have likely increased pressure on Darfur’s
As noted above, this competition strengthens the chance of
forests in any case. But the conflict has intensified the toll on
conflict. Compounding this pressure, the total livestock popu-
Darfur’s trees at the precise moment that thousands of families
lation in Darfur was increasing steadily – at 3 to 3.5 percent
needed new sources of income. Left unchecked, deforesta-
per year – before the conflict,7 climbing to around 30 million
tion will likely intensify, calling for better forestry management.
animals by 2007.8 It is therefore unsurprising that grazing
lands have become degraded – a trend that, left unchecked,
Over-cultivation and over-grazing
could potentially destroy pastoralism in some areas entirely.
As the population has expanded, the demands that greater
numbers of people put on the land have increased, leading Taken together, aggressive agricultural practices and defor-
to “aggressive agriculture” that is characterized by over-culti- estation have substantially altered traditional land use. This
vation of fields and over-grazing of animals. Both practices process was well underway in many areas before the conflict,
substantially degrade land quality over time, steadily depleting and the tensions it enflamed played a significant role in push-
Darfur’s ability to support rural livelihoods and fuelling conflict ing Darfur into the current crisis. In one part of South Darfur,
among different groups. These factors were clearly present for example, it is possible to compare land use patterns just
before the recent crisis and contributed to its outbreak. before the recent conflict with patterns from 25 years earlier.
Over-cultivation represents a lack of awareness of best prac- What emerges is a powerful illustration of human impact on
tices – including crop rotation and other strategies – and a the environment in an age of population growth and climate
response to climate change on the part of distressed farmers. change. Cultivated areas have dramatically expanded to the
Increased droughts led many families to expand the size of detriment of forests and bush lands used for grazing. The
their cultivated land in order to spread the risk of failure over resulting squeeze on pastoralists has made it extremely diffi-
a larger area. Often, this expansion encroached on forests, cult for nomadic migratory routes to avoid coming into contact
as mentioned above, as well as on rangelands traditionally with farmers, thereby setting the stage for conflict.
used for grazing. The latter is a significant cause of conflict,
as farmers and pastoralists compete for the same resources. 5 Jeni Klugman et al., “Dimensions of Challenge to Development in Darfur,” in World Bank ed.
Darfur Joint Assessment Mission: Dimensions of Challenge for Development – A Background
Volume [DJAM] (2007), p. 13.
6 Pellekaan et al., “Agriculture, Rural Development and the Environment,” DJAM (2007), p. 203.
Agricultural policy has also encouraged over-cultivation. In 7 The annual increase in livestock is in USAID, Steps Towards Stabilization in Governance and
Livelihoods in Darfur, Sudan (2005), as well as other sources. Overall, the livestock population in
many parts of Darfur, rights to cultivate the land are main- Sudan has increased at least six fold since 1959. See UNEP (2005), p. 184.
8 Pellekaan et al., p. 214.
Changing land use
Gurun Arus Aradeiba Gurun arus Aradeiba
19
1973
9 2000
2000
0
Um Sigum Um Sigum
Anada Timsah Dibbub Anada Timsah Dibbub
Um Zueifa Um zueifa
Lubana Lubana
Meshagga Meshagga
Um Chelutta Tulus Um Chelutta Tulus
Dikerbis Buram Dikerbis Buram
Tobreik Um Dugulgulai Tobreik Um Dugulgulai
Karkang At Tabah Um Sakeikini Karkang At Tabah Um Sakeikini
Umm Danga Umm Danga
Um Dul Um Dul
Closed forest Bush/shrub/grassland Flood plain, wetland Rain-fed farming Built-up areas Road Migration route
Source: Adapted from UNEP, Sudan Post-conflict Environmental Assessment (2007).'$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF 75(1'6
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Water consumption and management
Water management Access to water (2006)
Water resources in Darfur derive from rainfall or other surface
resources and include two underground reserves: aquifers
mostly in sandstones and the “central basement complex”,
which contains water trapped in rock formations. Resources
from the latter are more difficult to access. Water consumption
10 m 44%
Drop in water table in Families using an
was estimated at 500 million cubic metres per year in 2007 – El Fasher since 2007 improved water source
well within projected availability.9 Many of these resources are
located away from major population centres, however, or pose area’s resources. This management gap has coincided with
other serious access challenges. In fact, the main constraint burgeoning demand in the wake of rapid population growth
in accessing water often lies in poor technology and a lack of and urbanization. The resulting tendency towards unsustain-
awareness of best practices, rather than the scarcity of water able use has been intensified by the recent conflict, as people
as such. In just one two-month period, for example, UNICEF have sought water wherever possible and without regard to
estimates that several billion litres of water were lost across the longer-term effects. Brick-making, for example, requires
Darfur due the absence of adequate harvesting technology.10 water to mould bricks, in addition to the firewood consumed
to power kilns. Effective regulations could better guide water
Still, as urbanization has accelerated, growing population use – promoting alternatives to bricks such as stabilized-soil
densities have put enormous strain on the water supply around blocks (SSBs), which require no wood and up to 60 percent
cities and camps, often resulting in unsustainable consump- less water,14 or compressed plastic bricks, for example.
tion levels. The water table around El Fasher, for example, is Crucially, stronger management could also preside over a
estimated to have dropped by 10 metres since 2007,11 and sustainable expansion of access to water that will balance
up to 22 metres in Abu Shouk IDP camp alone. The threat of legitimate needs and environmental imperatives.
groundwater depletion therefore remains a major concern.12
Conclusion
Water is an essential need both for people’s direct survival
The environment in Darfur is facing a double assault from
and the associated benefits in sanitation, health and other
climate change and human impact. Climate change is most
critical areas. Humanitarian agencies and government part-
visible in erratic rain levels and associated increases in
ners have made considerable strides in ensuring access in
drought. Partially as a result of these changes, many farm-
recent years – including WASH sector efforts that facilitated
ers cultivate their fields more intensively, and many have
access to an improved water supply for over 800,000 people
expanded to the detriment of surrounding forests and grazing
in 2009.13 Despite these gains, Darfur remains significantly
land. Pastoralists, squeezed by the loss of rangelands, often
behind many northern states in the proportion of people who
over-graze their herds in smaller areas, further fuelling degra-
use an improved water supply – a figure that sinks as low as
dation. Deforestation also constitutes a substantial threat,
39.6 percent in West Darfur. Durable access is a key compo-
as Darfuris have cleared forests as an alternative or supple-
nent of the environmental challenges facing Darfur, and
mentary livelihoods strategy. Pressure on the environment
expanding access without sacrificing sustainability is critical.
is further intensified by current water consumption – better
management of which will be crucial to Darfur’s future, includ-
Unfortunately, the water sector in Darfur has often suffered
ing for related issues such as improved access, sanitation and
from weak official management, including a lack of compre-
health. Major priorities in addressing the recent environmental
hensive institutions capable of effectively managing the
decline will include direct environmental programmes, as well
9 Ibid., p. 186. as significant attention to livelihoods and governance issues.
10 UNICEF, correspondence August 2010.
11 United Nations, 2010 UN and Partners Work Plan for Sudan [2010 Work Plan] (2009).
12 UNEP, Water resource management in Darfur: The case for drought preparedness (2008b).
13 UNICEF, WASH Sector Output Table (December 2009). Total figure refers to the number of
people provided access to an improved water supply through new and rehabilitated facilities. 14 UNHABITAT, Darfur Recovery: Stabilized Soil Blocks for Sustainable Urban Growth (2009).
Groundwater levels Water access
Falling groundwater levels High variation in access to drinking water in North Sudan
Change in groundwater levels in Abu Shouk, near El Fasher, 2007 to 2009 Percentage of households with access to improved drinking water sources
0 80.3 79.4 77.9 73.8
60.2
-5 48.2 47 46.4 43.9 40.5 40.5 39.6 38.7 37.3 33.1
-10
-15
Sinnar
Northern
Khartoum
Kassala
Gezira
S. Kordofan
N. Darfur
Gedarif
W. Darfur
River Nile
N. Kordofan
S. Darfur
Blue Nile
White Nile
Red Sea
-20
-25
Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09
Source: UNICEF (2010). Source: SHHS (2007).75(1'6 '$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS
'(02*5$3+,&6+,)76
Population growth, youth bulge and urbanization
Darfur is in the midst of a seismic demographic shift,
Population growth Population growth
illustrated by a rapidly growing population that is
2.8% 50%
increasingly young and urban. This shift has mostly
occurred within a single generation, transforming Darfur
from a small, rural society into a home for almost 8
million people, about half of whom live in and around
annual growth rate in more people within the
urban areas or along the roads that link the main cities.
Darfur since 1973 next 15 years in Darfur
Similar changes in other countries have often contributed
to social upheaval as new realities confront traditional
States with a population of 1.3 billion in 2010, and the United
customs, or young people seek alternatives to a lack of
Kingdom with 336 million. Any society would face significant
economic opportunity. In Darfur, demographic change has
difficulty in absorbing such rapid population growth, as more
also magnified the impact of other trends in the region,
people demand a corresponding increase in resources. But
complicating society’s ability to absorb the consequences
Darfur, burdened with weak institutions and serious environ-
of environmental change and weak governance.
mental degradation, was perhaps particularly ill-equipped to
manage such growth. In fact, this growth has likely played an
Without greater attention to population issues, the chal-
important role in fostering negative environmental practices,
lenges facing Darfur are likely to become even more seri-
as people cultivate more land to feed larger families, for exam-
ous, as growing numbers of people compete for dwindling
ple. Despite the additional pressures it has created, popula-
resources in the context of a failing environment and ineffec-
tion growth shows little sign of abating, mostly increasing by
tive governance. In many ways, the recent conflict represents
around 2.8 percent per year. Assuming these rates continue,
the outcome of such a scenario, and Darfur must act quickly
up to 12 million people will be living in Darfur by 2025 - 50
to adapt to demographic change if it ever hopes to emerge
percent more than today.
from the current crisis. Without such adaptation, Darfur runs
a substantial risk of facing chronic challenges that will jeop-
Beyond the impact on natural resources, a larger population
ardize its sustainability. When planning for the longer term, all
requires an economy that can generate sufficient opportu-
actors should fully consider the impact of demographic shifts
nities and provide basic services – whether in the country-
on the area and seek to identify activities that will encourage
side or in urban centres. Economic pressure puts additional
positive adaptation to recent changes. These changes are
stress on the environment and poses a significant challenge
principally visible in three areas: population growth, the “youth
to government, as people consume more water, demand an
bulge” and urbanization.
education for their children or look for work. In the context of
such growth, institutions may find it difficult to meet expand-
Population growth ing needs quickly enough, particularly in Darfur, where state
The most visible feature of the demographic shift in Darfur budgets have increased at a slower rate than in other parts of
is rapid population growth – from 1.3 million people in 1973 Sudan. As more people go without basic services or produc-
to an estimated 7.5 million today.1 This represents an almost tive livelihoods, many will turn to maladaptive coping strate-
six-fold increase in 35 years. By comparison, equivalent gies. The resulting scarcity in natural resources and dearth
growth since the mid-1970s would have saddled the United of opportunity increase the likelihood of conflict, potentially
1 Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics, Fifth Population and Housing Census (2008). setting the stage for perpetual crisis in the region.
Population growth
Population and projected growth in Darfur Population growth in Sudan compared
Population in million and projections based on [1] 2.8%, [2] 2% or [3] 1% growth Change in population in different continents and Sudan from 1983 to 2010
Sudan +100%
1 12 Africa
2 +80%
3 North Africa
8 +60%
Latin America
Asia
+40%
4
+20%
+0%
0
1980 1990 2000 2010
1950 1975 2000 2025
Source: Census Bureau Sudan (2009), Census reports 2009 and 1993. Source: US Census Bureau (2010), International Data Base; Census Bureau Sudan (2009).'$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF 75(1'6
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS
Youth bulge Youth bulge (Sudan) Youth bulge (Darfur)
Given that Darfur’s rapid population growth began in earnest
in the 1970s, it follows that younger people constitute a signifi-
cant majority of the area’s residents. As of 2008, over half of
Darfuris were between the ages of 0 and 16 years old, even
higher than the overall Sudanese proportion of 47 percent.
47% 52%
aged 16 years or aged 16 years or
As a result, Darfur is confronting a serious demographic younger across Sudan younger across Darfur
bottleneck that requires it to provide services and jobs for
people who are often too young to contribute financially to they may be unprepared to succeed – the consequence of
society. Given the heavy concentration of young people, poor access to education and an almost total absence of
large numbers of people will age into the labour force every vocational training. Over the last three years, for example,
year, vastly outstripping available economic opportunities. gross enrolment in secondary schools has declined by a
Agriculture, for example, is unlikely to provide reliable liveli- respective annual average of one and two percent in South
hoods for these people without significant adaptation. This, in and North Darfur.2 The failure to provide educational oppor-
turn, raises important questions about the capacity of cities tunities – or even a reliable basket of associated services like
to absorb new residents and the degree to which these resi- health or nutrition – greatly undermines young people’s ability
dents are prepared to thrive in urban environments. to pursue sustainable livelihoods. A major result is that young
people are often at a double disadvantage – cut off from their
Youth bulges are common in developing areas, particularly families’ traditional livelihoods due to conflict or environmental
in Africa and the Middle East. In Sudan’s immediate region, decline, but frequently unprepared – in terms of knowledge,
however, Darfur stands out for its elevated concentration of training and other needs – to pursue alternative options.
young people. Youth rates in Darfur generally dwarf those in
Youth in northern states of Sudan
Sudan’s more stable neighbours, instead often approaching Share of population aged 16 years or younger
the rates in more volatile surrounding countries. In Chad, for
45 46 47 48 50 50 51 51 52 53 53
example, 46.4 percent of people are between 0 and 14 years 38 39 41 43
old – comparable to the rate in Darfur, and significantly more
than an estimated 32 percent in Egypt. This recalls an often
discussed link between social instability and high concen-
Northern
Kassala
Sinnar
Khartoum
Gezira
N. Darfur
Gedarif
S. Darfur
S. Kordofan
W. Darfur
River Nile
Red Sea
White Nile
Blue Nile
trations of youth without productive employment – either in
school or work. Certainly, as the “formal” conflict has receded N. Kordofan
somewhat in Darfur since 2006, a pronounced increase in
banditry and crime has emerged. It is difficult to establish a Source: Census Bureau Sudan (2009).
definite correlation between this trend and the Darfuri youth
bulge, but at the same time, it is reasonable to suggest that Urbanization
greater opportunities for young people could at least have
Life in urban centres can offer several benefits, including
tempered its impact.
closer proximity to services and more lucrative economic
opportunity.3 These benefits will only fully materialize, however,
In fact, young people have exceedingly few opportunities
if cities possess the necessary resources to support adequate
in Darfur. Ravaged by years of conflict and environmental
service provision and infrastructure. In Darfur, as successful
decline, Darfur’s economy has been unable to create suffi-
cient opportunities in the cities or the countryside. Threats to 2 World Bank, Education Status Report for North Sudan, Finalization workshop and results
security and deteriorations in land quality have spurred many presentation [ESR] (July 2010).
3 “Cities”, “urbanization” and related terms in the Darfuri context – as in many other developing
families to move to cities or IDP camps. As a result, young areas – often refer to looser urban agglomerations than may be typical in many industrialized
countries. In Darfur, the main characteristic of urbanization is visible in increasing population
people have increasingly grown up in urbanized areas where density, although this increasing density may be occurring outside of existing town centres.
Youth bulges worldwide Age distribution Sudan
Countries with a high share of youth 70 percent of Sudanese are no older than 30 years
Top ten countries by percentage of population aged 0 to 14 years, plus Sudan Population by age group in 2008
50 49 46 46 46 46 46 46 45 45 Age in years million % 5 1
43
1 0 to 9 11.65 29.7
2 10 to 16 6.82 17.4
39.15
3 17 to 24 5.93 15.2 million
4 25 to 29 3.11 8.0
Niger
Uganda
DRC
Chad
Afghanistan
Somalia
Zambia
Malawi
Sudan
Burkina F.
Tanzania
5 30 or older 11.64 29.7 4
2
Total 39.15 100.0 3
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects (2008 Revision). Source: Census Bureau Sudan (2009), Census reports 2009 and 1993.75(1'6 '$5)85| BEYOND EMERGENCY RELIEF
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS
Population concentration in Darfur
Urbanization (2003) Urbanization (2010) Half the population now lives in and near urban centres or along the major axes
20% 50%
Darfuris living in or near Darfuris now in or near
El Geneina Kebkabiya
North Darfur
El Fashir
urban areas pre-conflict urban areas or along axes West Darfur
Shangil Tobay
Mornei
agriculture has become more elusive due to a less favourable Zalingei
climate and a rapidly growing population, increasing numbers Kass
of people had been moving to cities even before the conflict.
Nyala
In migrating to urban areas, Darfuris were part of a global
trend towards urbanization that included the rest of Sudan,
as well as many other countries around the world. Sudan, for
example, overtook the average rate of urbanization in Africa 0 25 50 100 150 Kilometers South Darfur Ed Daein
shortly after the year 2000, and at current rates, will become
about as urbanized as the world average around 2050. number of permanent structures and growing economic links
to nearby population centres. Local and municipal authorities
In Darfur, the pre-existing trend towards urbanization was increasingly recognize this fact and are incorporating it into
forcibly and dramatically accelerated by the recent conflict, their planning, as illustrated by urban plans for Nyala, which
as rural civilians fled to the relative refuge of urban areas and forecast the city’s progressive expansion to accommodate
IDP camps. One estimate projects that urbanization in Darfur surrounding IDP areas and other new residents over the next
doubled – to 40 percent – between 2003 and 2006 alone.4 This ten years. In South Darfur, local authorities have promised free
trend has continued in the intervening four years, and today titles to plots of land around Nyala for IDPs who choose to
roughly half of Darfuris live in and near major urban areas, build permanent structures – a requirement that UNHABITAT
or along the axes that link them. In addressing this change, helps families fulfil by supporting the production of afford-
it is important to bear in mind that critical issues related to able, environmentally-friendly construction materials.6
urbanization – particularly land tenure and the rights of IDPs
to return, resettle or integrate as they choose – remain unre- Anecdotally, many IDPs want their children to grow up to
solved. But a substantial reversal in current rates of urban become doctors, engineers or other professionals – an objec-
living appears unlikely, given evidence from other countries tive that will be easier to achieve from an urban base. Given
showing that urbanization will almost universally increase these aspirations, as well as the relative length of displace-
in the developing world.5 As people spend year after year ment and greater opportunities for jobs and services, it seems
in urban areas, many new residents – including IDPs – may likely that a substantial proportion of IDPs will choose to live
come to associate these areas with easier access to health, permanently in or near urban centres.7
water, nutrition and other essential services.
In light of the projection that Darfur’s cities will continue to grow,
In fact, many IDP camps have already come to resemble urban it is important to emphasize two points. First, all displaced
neighbourhoods or emerging cities, characterized by a greater
6 The land title programme is mostly an initiative of the federal Humanitarian Affairs Commission
4 Nadeem Karmali and H.E. Luka Biong, “Millennium Development Goals and Darfur: Trends (HAC) and the State Ministry of Physical Planning and Public Utilities (SMPPU). These plans
and Baseline,” in DJAM (2007), p. 35. remain in place, but implementation has not always been free of problems.
5 De-urbanization can occur, but it is most often associated with duress, i.e. natural disaster or 7 This view is shared by the federal Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC), which noted in August
conflict. A recent UNFPA study points out that governments in Africa and Asia must “embrace 2010 that a “considerable number” of IDPs in and around urban areas are likely to integrate
and prepare for rapid urbanization” and noted that the “trend [towards urbanization] is inexorable,” into their current communities. Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Humanitarian Aid Commission,
(UNFPA 2010). Support for Recovery and Development of Darfur: Brief Note (August 2010).
Urbanization Urban planning
Sudan urbanizes more quickly than most regions Plan for the growth of Nyala
Percentrage of urban population from 1950 to 2050 Master plan showing projected growth of Nyala until 2013/14
80 City area by 2000
Sudan
Asia By 2003/04
60
By 2008/09
Africa
World By 2013/14
40 Centre
After 2013/14
Main road
20
River / wadi
Sakali City boundary
0
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 NP
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects (2009 Revision). Source: South Darfur State Ministry of Physical Planning and Public Utilities.You can also read
