Bond investor presentation - Cision
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Bond investor presentation June 2020 Strictly private and confidential
Disclaimer
Important information
This presentation (the “Presentation”) has been produced by Cabonline Group Holding AB (publ) (the “Company” or the “Issuer” and, together with its direct and indirect subsidiaries, the “Group”) solely for use in connection with discussions with holders of the bonds of the Issuer (the “Bonds).
This Presentation is for information purposes only. By attending a meeting where this Presentation is presented, or by reading the Presentation slides, you agree to be bound by the following terms, conditions and limitations.
All information provided in this Presentation has been obtained from the Group or through publicly available material. Moreover, the information contained in this Presentation has not been independently verified and the Issuer assumes no responsibility for, and no warranty (expressly or implied) or
representation is made as to, the accuracy, completeness or verification of the information contained in this Presentation.
This Presentation is dated 27 June 2020. Neither the delivery of this Presentation nor any further discussions of the Group with any of the recipients shall, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the affairs of the Group since such date. The Group does not
undertake any obligations to review or confirm, or to release publicly or otherwise to investors or any other person, any revisions to the information contained in this Presentation to reflect events that occur or circumstances that arise after the date of this Presentation.
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Forward Looking Statements
Certain information contained in this presentation, including any information on the Group’s plans or future financial or operating performance and other statements that express the Group’s management’s expectations or estimates of future performance, constitute forward-looking statements (when used in this document,
the words “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate” and “expect” and similar expressions, as they relate to the Group or its management, are intended to identify forward-looking statements). Such statements are based on a number of estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by management at the time, are
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results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by those forward-looking statements.
Audit Review of Financial Information
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miscalculations.
2Executive summary • Management and the owners are very grateful for the continued discussions and support of the bondholders in relation to the Amendments and Waivers being sought to address the temporary challenges brought on by Covid-19 • Cabonline management continues to execute on the Covid-19 plan outlined to Bondholders in the presentation on 04 May 2020; currently the business is performing as projected by management with regard to both trip volumes and cash flow • The business has significantly outperformed projections on bankruptcies as our conservative outlook projected 25% of drivers going into bankruptcy, but thanks to significant operational initiatives to support our loyal driver base as well as the Government support packages that drivers have applied for (facilitated by Cabonline), actual performance has been far stronger than the projections shared. Driver terminations have now consistently fallen over the past 4 weeks and only stand
Cabonline’s significant B2P contract portfolio has been a key driver behind trip volume recoveries
since societies began reopening
Exposure to both B2P and B2C/B(1) Trip volumes in the B2P segment have fared significantly better than B2C/B
SEK 6,490m Decline in # of trips compared to Cabonline’s public rides
• B2P trips comprise ~50% of taxi revenues across the Nordics
the same period in 2019(2) experienced far lower reductions
• These are seen as critical infrastructure, enabling the mobility
-2% and a faster bounce back
of: i) people with health issues / the elderly; ii) school children -7%
living remotely or with disabilities; and iii) people living -18% -22% -24%
remotely -30%
• Although Covid-19 has dampened B2P trip volumes, some -42%
-50% -49% -48% -30%
B2P B2P B2P trips must still be made – for example the transport of -55% -26%
those with health issues to/from hospitals. The government -44% -45%
42% -55% -52%
has also stipulated that these rides can no longer be shared,
now requiring multiple trips where previously just one trip Significant recovery -68% +44 p.p.
was sufficient in the past weeks
• With 42% of transport revenue coming from the B2P 1- 8- 15- 22- 29- 5- 12- 19- 26- 3- 10- 17- 24- 31- 7- 14- 21- 25-
segment, Cabonline benefits from this baseline of demand Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun(3)
(4)
• B2C/B comprises the remaining ~50% of taxi revenues in the Decline in # of trips compared to Cabonline’s B2C/B segment has
Nordics the same period in 2019(2) experienced a bounce back in the
• These trips are more discretionary in nature, being linked to -5%
past weeks
business, retail and leisure activities
• Although a slight improvement in demand was seen during -22%
the early stages of Covid-19 outbreak (believed to be due to
the added safety and privacy afforded by taxi travel vs.
B2C/B alternatives), trip volumes in this segment then saw sharper -47%
58% B2C/B declines
• This is linked to government recommendations to work from -58%
-65% -64%
home if possible, to close non-essential shops, and discourage
-73% -71%
gatherings -75% -75% -62%
• Fewer trips in this segment are deemed essential and it has -79% -74% -67%
-72% -72%
therefore underperformed the B2P segment -78%
-81%
• With 58% of transport revenue coming from the B2C/B
segment, Cabonline is partially affected by these dynamics 1- 8- 15- 22- 29- 5- 12- 19- 26- 3- 10- 17- 24- 31- 7- 14- 21- 25-
Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun(3)
(4)
Cabonline 2019 Transport Revenue
Significantly less impact on volumes in the B2P segment compared to the B2C/B segment with clear recovery in trip data following easing of
restrictions in the Nordics (over half of B2P trip volume reductions have now been recovered)
Sources: Transport Analysis Sweden; Statistics Finland; Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communication; Statistics Finland; Danmarks Statistik; annual reports; Management information; company websites; company call centres; company apps; industry interviews; press search 4
Notes: (1) Estimated share of transport revenue excluding fines 2019 (2) Trip volume numbers are for Sweden and Norway, i.e. excluding Finland and Denmark. (3) Represents 4 days (Monday-Thursday) (4) Trip columes shown for 3rd May in the presentation from 4th May only
represented three day (Monday-Wednesday), hence the numbers deviateOn an aggregated basis, trip volumes(1) have been steadily recovering each week since April
-4%
Denmark – 11 March
Norway – 12 March
-16% Announced national Denmark – 15 April Norway – 20 April
lockdown Reopening phase Reopening phase
one incl. schools one incl.
level 0 – 5 kindergartens
-34% Finland – 18 March
Closed schools and
several industries Clear correlation between the launched Shown in the
First cases confirmed reopening initiatives and the trip volumes -45%
presentation 4th -49% -47%
Norway – 26 Feb -49%
May -53%
Denmark – 27 Feb
Sweden – 27 Feb -60%
-61% -62% -62%
Finland – 29 Feb -63% -63%
-66%
-68% -69%
-75%
293 Represents 4
275 275 281 days
272 272 268 272 271
264 (Monday-
255
242 247 241 244 Thursday)
233 229 232
188
179
132 138
125 129 123
110
100 101 101
88 93 91
83 76
67 74
1-Mar-20 8-Mar-20 15-Mar-20 22-Mar-20 29-Mar-20 5-Apr-20 12-Apr-20 19-Apr-20 26-Apr-20 3-May- 10-May-20 17-May-20 24-May-20 31-May-20 7-Jun-20 14-Jun-20 21-Jun-20 25-Jun-20
20 (2)
2020 - Number of trips (’000) 2019 - Number of trips (’000) Delta between 2020 and 2019
Source: BBC, Sveriges Radio (Radio Sweden), VG, The Local, company information
Note: (1) Trip volume numbers are for Sweden and Norway, i.e. excluding Finland and Denmark. (2) Trip columes shown for 3rd May in the presentation from 4th May only represented three day (Monday- 5
Wednesday), hence the numbers deviateA solid liquidity position is expected be maintained throughout the year
Trip volume assumptions(1)
Base case scenario presented previously Actual 2020
0
Trip volume, delta (%) to 2019
-10 Actual performance has -16%
-21%
-20 been almost exactly as -27%
forecasted -32%
-30
-40%
-40 -45% -48%
-49%
-50 -57% -51%
-60%
-60 -66%
-70
-80
Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20
Forecast monthly ending cash balance (SEKm)
400
350
300
250
200 Performance slightly
above the previously
150 shown forecasts
100
50
-
Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20
2020 actuals Base case
Source: Company information
Note: (1) Trip volume numbers are for Sweden and Norway, i.e. excluding Finland and Denmark. Trip volumes are calculated on a week number basis, hence trips at the end of one month might be counted in 6
the subsequent month7
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