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Building Wealth Over Generations...
Daily Research Reports Disclosures and Disclaimer : This report must be read with the disclosures in the Disclosure appendix,
and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. This document does not contain any investment views or opinions.
Wednesday
07th August, 2019
A Legacy of Wealth
Building Plan.
Welcome Note
Welcome to India Cements Investment Services Ltd works!!
The world out there is uncertain. On this backdrop, the market volatility is bound to increase. Believe us, even the big investors’ sentiment will
oscillate—and that is why it is important for us to safely navigate these difficult times.
To do so, India Cements Investment Services Ltd brings you this daily market commentary which will help you to sharpen your instincts on investments
in equity markets, gold, silver, crude-oil, USD/INR, the Dow Jones index, Hang Seng index, Euro-Dollar, etc. On the next few pages, you can learn more
about the same. We would love to answer any further questions you may have in a one-one discussion.
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CONTENTS
Title Page No.
Top of the Morning 04-08
Top Picks 09-10
Equity Derivatives 11
Top of the Morning TOP PICKS Compass & Navigator 12-14
Disclaimer 15
COMPASS & NAVIGATOR
ICISL Invest “Top of the Morning”
Top of the Morning
ICISL Invest “Top of the Morning” newsletter provides insights and themes for
Indian equity markets. We also try and cover international themes for the day. This
newsletter is quite popular with traders as it covers the most preferred trading strategy
for Sensex/Nifty for the day.
In Chart of the day section, we recommend a stock which is likely to move significantly
in the short term, clearly defining the supports, the resistances and bias for the stock.
In a nutshell, ICISL Invest “Top of the Morning” covers themes and insights for the day.
Transform your Investments. Elevate your life.
ICISL Invest “Top of the Morning”
Good Morning & Welcome to Wednesday's trading action at Dalal
Street, dated 7th August 2019. INDICES
Nifty 10948 0.79%
The good news this Wednesday morning is that the recent fall at Wall Street is
proving to be a buying opportunity as Dow Jones overnight ended 300 points Bank Nifty 28022 1.35%
plus on reports that the Chinese central bank signaled that it would keep the Nifty Auto Index 6942 1.43%
yuan from falling further.
Nifty FMCG Index 28847 0.24%
That brings us to our call of the day which suggests that Dalal Street too may Nifty Infra Index 3071 1.69%
bounce on any signs of a de-escalation in the U.S-China trade war.
Nifty IT Index 15515 -0.02%
But we suspect, things could improve significantly only if there are bigger rate
Nifty Media Index 1786 -1.18%
cuts by RBI. The street expects a 25 basis points rate cut. But we firmly
believe that the trigger on the buy side only if the RBI cuts interest rates by at Nifty Midcap Index 4317 2.14%
least 50 bps to boost consumption demand in the decelerating economy. Nifty Metal Index 2448 1.35%
So all eyes will be glued to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) which is expected Nifty Pharma Index 7819 0.14%
to cut interest rates for the fourth time in a row in it's today's meeting.
Nifty Reality Index 262 1.76%
The backdrop is slightly positive after the government said it will soon hold Nifty Smallcap Index 5423 1.78%
discussions with representatives of foreign portfolio investors, amid
Sensex 36977 0.75%
continuing overseas fund outflow from the markets following the decision to
impose surcharge on certain class of such investors. (Well, this is a positive SGX Nifty 10919 -0.40%
news for our stock markets)
Amongst stock specific news; RIL-BP ink new fuel retail JV; to set up 5,500 Outlook for the Day
petrol pump outlets in 5 years.
Volatile Session
RIL to hold 51% stake, BP to hold 49% in new fuel retail JV .
Our chart of the day suggests establishing short positions in stocks like
BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIES, SUN TV and CIPLA with interweek perspective.. Nifty Outlook
Derivatives data suggests that maximum Call open interest (OI) of 22.2 lakh Intraday Neutral (10701-11175)
contracts was seen at the 11,000 strike price. It will act as a crucial resistance
Medium Term Neutral (10501-11501)
level in the August series.
Long Term Positive (11901)
This is followed by 11,500 strike price.
Before we end, Q1 results to tricke in today: Tata Steel, HCL Technologies,
Lupin, Cipla, Aurobindo Pharma, Mahindra & Mahindra, Siemens, HPCL
Key Levels to Watch
Nifty Support 10751 & 10671
Outlook for Wednesday: Wild Swings expected for Nifty Resistance 11251 & 11700
the day.
In early action, SGX Nifty is seen sluggish as the market gears up for the RBI
Pivot Level
policy decision. Nifty 11251
Transform your Investments. Elevate your life. www.icisinvest.com
ICISL Invest “Top of the Morning”
Any news on US China trade war front will also be closely monitored. Technical Strategy
The technical landscape is still favoring the bears despite an upbeat Dalal
CIPLA 502.35
Street in yesterday’s trading session. Nifty is trading well below its 200DMA at
11139 mark. Nifty needs to move past this key hurdle in order to entrust the Action SELL ON STRENGTH
optimism back into investors’ minds.
Target 457
Investors face a fresh batch of quarterly results this week, prominent
amongst them are: Support 483/457
• Wednesday: M&M, CIPLA, ADANI GAS, OFSS, BAJAJ ELECTRICALS,
Resistance 535/569
BALRAMCHIN, RAMCOCEM, ADANI POWER, KSL, RAJESH EXPORTS, J
KUMAR INFRA, HCLTECH, INDIACEM, VOLTAS, HINDPETRO, LUPIN, Holding Period 9 Days
CUMMINS, TATASTEEL, SIEMENS.
• Thursday: ULTRATECH, PAGEIND, MGL, COFFE DAY ENTERPRISES, Technically, CIPLA's stock price pattern appears
ENGINEERSIND, ADANI ENT, NBVENTURES, UCO BANK, RCF, ugly at current levels.
TATAINVEST, NBCC, GNFC, TATACHEM, HEXAWARE, CITY UNION
Overbought conditions prevail on weekly &
BANK.
monthly charts. The near term momentum
• Friday: HINDALCO, CADILA, SHREECEM, MRF, FUTURE CONSUMER, oscillators are in sell mode signaling further sharp
down move.
GAIL, NCC, BRITANNIA, CENTURYPLY, BHEL, BPCL, PFIZER, NHPC,
SAIL. The stock price is signaling a break down from a
probable higher consolidation zone on daily
• Saturday: DIVISLABS, NTPC, BALKRISHNA, HINDCOPPER. charts with a probable resistance at psychological
550 mark. The stock is witnessing selling
pressure after consolidating between 505-560
STOCKS TO WATCH: zone for past 7-months. Major weakness on cards
below intermediate 483.75 levels.
• Our chart of the day suggests establishing short positions in stocks
Also the recent sequence of lower highs / lows is
like NBCC, LIC HOUSING & CIPLA with interweek perspective.
intact in the daily and intraday charts with a
probable Double Top pattern on the monthly
• BULLISH STOCKS: BHARTIARTL, MARICO. charts, indicating further weakness.
• BEARISH STOCKS: PEL, RELIANCE CAPITAL, BALKRISHNA Reverse divergences on weekly and monthly
INDUSTRIES, KAJARIA CERAMICS, KOTAK BANK, NTPC, SUN TV, YES charts along with weakening momentum likely to
BANK work as negative catalyst for the stock. The stock
is likely to be a underperformer going forward.
SHOW ME THE MONEY: BUY NIFTY 14th AUGUST PE Strike Price The 200-DMA of the stock is placed at 543 zone
and this level shall act as strong resistance.
10800 at CMP 60.65. Profit: Unlimited. Maximum Loss: Rs. 4,548.75/-.
Stop: Exit Put option if Nifty moves above 11125. (Nifty August Futures Establishing short positions at CMP, targeting
CMP 10979). 483 and then at 451. Stop above 571.
• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: NIL Holding Period: 9-21 Days.
Aggressive 6-months targets are placed t 405-
425 mark.
IPO Note:
• Microfinance lender Spandana Sphoorty Financial launched its
Rs 1,200-crore IPO on August 5 in a price band of Rs 853-856
per share.
Transform your Investments. Elevate your life. www.icisinvest.com
ICISL Invest “Top of the Morning”
The offer, which will close today, consists of a fresh issue of up to Rs 400 crore and an offer for sale of up to 93,56,725
equity shares. Company already raised Rs 360.28 crore from 18 anchor investors.
Sterling and Wilson Solar (SWSL), the end-to-end solar engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) solutions
provider, will hit the capital market with its Rs 3,125-crore public offer on August 6. It has fixed a price band at Rs 775-
780 per share for the issue which will close on August 8.
FII/DII & OPTIONS DATA:
• As per Tuesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold shares worth Rs. 2107.93 crores in the Indian Equity
Market. DIIs on the other hand, bought shares worth Rs. 2289.05 crores in the Indian Equity market.
• Derivative data suggests that Maximum Call open interest is at 11,000, which will act as a crucial resistance level in
August series. This was followed by 11,500 strike. Maximum Put open interest was seen at 11,000 followed by 10,800.
GLOBAL CUES:
Overnight, Wall Street was in positive territory following good news from Chinese government officials that they would take
steps to keep its currency from falling too far. This recovery was welcomed by investors after a terrible fall on Monday where
Dow Jones witnessed carnage of more than 750 points in a single day. Although that was the weakest level for the yuan in 11
years, many Wall Street investors feared China would price the yuan below the psychological 7:1 barrier. The Yuan continued
to slide Tuesday, but the pace of its decline slowed. One dollar last bought 7.0204 Yuan in China, and 7.0546 Yuan in the
offshore market, where the currency trades more freely.
ECONOMIC CUES:
• The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point and most
importantly, ended its “quantitative tightening” program two months early. The Fed said it was easing monetary policy
“in light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook and well as muted inflation pressures.”.
The governors voted 8-2 in favor of the move. This was the first rate cut by the Fed, since late 2008.
Denting optimism was the sense that the Fed seemed to step back a bit from promising a rate cut in September.
• We suspect, the Reserve Bank Of India (RBI) will also cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% at the
August 7 meeting. The two catalysts' working in favor of rate cut by RBI are: low growth and weak inflation.
• US GDP growth in Q2CY19 was 2.1%t, higher than street estimates but there was some clear impact of tariffs and trade
friction.
• The Asian Development Bank lowered growth forecast for India from 7.2% YoY to 7.0% for FY20, due to moderation in
growth prospects for the advanced economies which could adversely affect tradable services.
Transform your Investments. Elevate your life. www.icisinvest.comICISL Invest “Top of the Morning” COMMODITY NEWS: • In Tuesday's trade, Crude-oil prices traded lower near $ 54.19 mark down nearly 0.91%. Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!! Volatility will be the hallmark. • Preferred trade on Nifty (10948): Sell between 11001-11101 zone. Targets at 10751/10001. Stop 11289. • Preferred trade on Bank Nifty (28022): Sell between 28251-28271 zone. Targets at 26717/24770. Stop 28737. Daily chart of Nifty: Transform your Investments. Elevate your life. www.icisinvest.com
TOP PICKS (F & O)
It's like having investment binoculars !
Markets are very logical and
whoever can reason most logically
and profoundly in this setup
will ought to win.
ICISL Invest Top Picks: It's like having Investment binoculars!!
When we want to see what's happening far off, we will reach for the binoculars. The binocular helps
us to steer out of danger and also accurately spots our targets.
When it comes to trading / investing, that's exactly how ICISL Invest Top Picks helps us to identify
the best five momentum stocks for the week. This daily newsletter introduces to the momentum
stocks from the list of Future & Option segment, defining their support and resistance levels, and
attempts to forecast their movement with a short /medium term perspective.
Transform your Investments. Elevate your life.TOP PICKS (F & O)
It's like having investment binoculars !
Bharti Airtel could shine amidst volatile market situation
STOCKS LTP S1 S2 R1 R2 BIAS TRADING STRATEGY
HDFC enjoyed three back to back positive trading
sessions. Key support now rests at 2059. Interweek
HDFC 2190 2141 2059 2259 2301 Positive strategy: Establish long positions between 2175-2181
zone targeting 2231 and then aggressive targets at
2259-2267 zone with stop at 2135.
Momentum oscillators are suggesting strong buy signals for
Bharti Airtel. The recent sequence of higher highs/lows also
intact on daily/weekly charts. Interweek strategy: Establish
BHARTI AIRTEL 368.45 353 332 401 423 Positive
long positions between 361-363 zone. Targets at 375 and then
aggressive targets at 395-401 zone with stop at 349.
The interweek risk is on the downside with immediate
targets at 2480. Momentum oscillators signaling major
BRITANNIA 2550.55 2475 2385 2667 2850 Negative weakness. Interweek Strategy: Sell between 2581-2599
zone, targeting 2480-2501 and then aggressive targets
at 2365-2385 with stop above 2681.
The interweek risk is on the downside with immediate
targets at 1617. Momentum oscillators signaling major
PEL 1719 1691 1617 1757 1871 Negative weakness. Interweek Strategy: Sell between 1755-1763
zone, targeting 1691 and then at 1617-1625 zone with
stop above 1807.
SUN TV is seen trading with negative bias. Key intraday
hurdles seen at 463. Interweek Strategy: Sell between
SUN TV 441 441 401 463 491 Negative 453-455 zone, targeting 441 and then at 401-403 zone.
Stop 477.
Transform your Investments. Elevate your life. www.icisinvest.comWednesday
EQUITY DERIVATIVES 07th August, 2019
Looking into the future from present.
Derivatives Strategies Changes in Open Interest (OI) in yesterday’s trade.
Future Call: SELL LIC HOUSING FINANCE AUGUST FUTURES
Nifty Spot 10948.25 (+0.79%)
between 485-491 zone. Targets at 473 and then at 467. Stop: 501.
Holding Period: Intraday. Analyst’s Remark: Breaking Down. (LIC Bank Nifty Future 28022.10 (+1.35%)
Housing Finance August Futures CMP 479).
VIX 16.12 (-2.80%)
Option Call: BUY NIFTY 14th AUGUST PE Strike Price 10800 at Premium +31 vs +34
CMP 60.65. Profit: Unlimited. Maximum Loss: Rs. 4,548.75/-. Stop: Nifty Future OI 1.88 crores (-5.53%)
Exit Put option if Nifty moves above 11125. (Nifty August Futures
CMP 10979). Bank Nifty Spot OI 17.92 lakhs (-7.39%)
Cash Volumes Day Before
Yesterday
Market Summary: (INR in Cr.) Yesterday
• Nifty August Futures ended Tuesday's session at a premium of BSE Cash Vol.
2162.92 2643.25
+31 vs premium of +34. (Rs. in Cr)
• The 08th August expiry Put-Call Open Interest Ratio was at 0.81 NSE Cash Vol.
35082.42 33029.25
for Nifty whereas it was 0.85 for Bank Nifty. (Rs. in Cr)
NSE Derivative
• The 08th August expiry Put-Call Volume Ratio was at 0.84 for the 966435.49 957213
Vol. (Rs. in Cr)
Nifty and 0.82 for Bank Nifty.
• For Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 11200 Strike Derivatives Vol. No of Turnover
Price, followed by 11000 Strike Price for 08th August Series. Short (INR in Cr.) contracts (Rs. In cr.)
Covering was seen at strikes price 107050-11100.
• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 10800 Index Future Volumes 375603 26420.55
followed by 10700 strike price for 08th August series. Short
Stock Future Volumes 853819 48960.77
Buildup was seen at strike prices 10600-11000.
• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 29000 Index Option Volumes 12683519 849289.27
Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 27500
Strike Price. Stock Option Volumes 689753 41764.9
• As per Tuesday’s Provisional Data available on the NSE, FII’s sold
Total 14602694 966435.49
shares worth Rs. 2107.93 crores in the Indian Equity Market. DIIs
on the other hand, bought shares worth Rs. 2289.05 crores in the
Indian Equity market. Major Changes in Nifty Options (OI)
• Long Buildup: REC, HDFC, SRF. Calls in lakhs (% Change)
• Short Buildup: ZEEL, LICHSGFIN, BRITANNIA, PEL. 10800 2.5 (-54%)
• Short Covering: NTPC, COAL INDIA, BEL, AXISBANK, 10900 9.97 (-39%)
IBULHSGFIN. 11500 8.83 (-14%)
• Long Unwinding: CIPLA, TCS, MGL, BAJAJ AUTO.
Puts in lakhs (% Change)
• Stocks banned in F&O Segment: NIL.
10600 10.75 (+28%)
• New In Ban: NIL.
10700 14.97 (+56%)
• Out Of Ban: NIL.
10800 17.5 (+37%)
Transform your Investments. Elevate your life. www.icisinvest.comCompass & Navigator
Sailing Global & MCX Trends
with ICISL Compass & Navigator
Compass & Navigator is a daily newsletter that provides technical update on all the major instruments
of the world like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, US Dollar Index and USD/INR. We define their support and
resistance levels and attempt to forecast their movement with a short / medium term perspective. Also
in the report, a trader will find bias for the mentioned instruments.
This newsletter is also quite popular with a market participant who loves to have insight & theme on MCX
Gold, MCX Silver as well MCX Crude-Oil.
Transform your Investments. Elevate your life.The Compass
…Direction at a glance
MCX SILVER: Establish long positions on corrective declines. Major strength seen above 43651.
Instrument LTP S1 S2 R1 R2 Bias TRADING STRATEGY
Key supports now seen at 36259. Interweek strategy: Buy between
MCX GOLD 37497 36811 36259 37555 38129 Positive 36811-36901 zone, targeting 37555 and then at 38001-38129 zone with
stop at 36251.
Key supports now seen at 40179. Interweek strategy: Buy between
MCX SILVER 42487 41779 40179 43651 48611 Positive 41779-42001 zone, targeting 43651 and then aggressive targets at
45001-48611 zone with stop at 40171.
Interweek strategy: Buy on dips between 3605-3625 zone, targeting
MCX CRUDE OIL 3858 3566 3375 3901 4017 Neutral 3901 mark and then aggressive targets at 4017-4051 zone with stop at
3489.
Interweek strategy: Establish short positions between 441-445 zone,
MCX COPPER 440 421 395 451 465 Neutral targeting 421 zone and then aggressive targets at 405-411 zone with
stop at 453.
Natural Gas prices seen at oversold conditions. Support now seen at
MCX NATURAL 151.10 139.00 131.00 161.00 205.00 Neutral 139-141 zone. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions only above
GAS 161, targeting 171 and then at 201-205 zone with stop at 137.
Technically, USD/INR now faces major hurdles at 71.455. Amidst falling
71.04 70.59 69.21 71.45 72.50 Positive local stock markets, aggressive traders can look to buy USD/INR at CMP,
USD-INR
targeting 71.45 and then aggressive targets seen at 72.50. Stop at 71.45.
Transform your Investments. Elevate your life. www.icisinvest.comThe Navigator
…Sailing global trend
Buy on dips preferred strategy for Gold.
Instrument LTP S1 S2 R1 R2 Bias TRADING STRATEGY
Support now seen 1445-1451 zone on closing basis. Major interweek
GOLD $ 1482 1467 1445 1501 1511 Positive hurdles now seen at 1511. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 1467-1471
zone, targeting 1501 and then at 1507-1511 zone with stop 1439.
Hurdles now seen at 17.05. Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting
SILVER ($) 16.43 15.45 14.87 16.71 17.21 Positive 16.71 zone and then at 17.05-17.21 zone with stop below 15.45.
Confirmation of strength only above key hurdles now at 58.05 zone. Key
WTI CRUDE support seen at 52.50. Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions only
53.77 52.5 49 58.05 61.5 Neutral
OIL ($ ) above 58.05, targeting 60-61.50 zone with strict stop at 52.45.
EUR/USD faces major hurdles at 1.1545. Downside risk seen at 1.1023.
EUR/USD 1.1199 1.1001 1.0945 1.1545 1.1607 Neutral Negative bias. Aggressive buying advised only above 1.1545 mark.
U.S Dollar index faces hurdles at 100. Downside well supported at 95.
97.44 95.00 92.75 100.00 102.50 Positive Establish long positions between 97-97.50 zone, targeting 100 and then at
US Dollar Index
102.50 with stop at 95. Positive bias.
Dow Jones rebounded in last trading session amidst de-escation of
DOW JONES 25978 25523 24631 26115 27251 Neutral currency twar between US and China. Key supoort now seen at 25523 and
key interweek hurdle at 26115.
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DISCLAIMER: This is solely for information of clients of India Cements Investment Services Ltd and does
not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase
and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by you on the basis of the information contained
herein is your responsibility alone and India Cements Investment Services Ltd its subsidiaries or its
employees or associates will not be liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you.
We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained in
this recommendation, but India Cements Investment Services Ltd or any of its subsidiaries or associates or
employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any
inadvertent error in the information contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this
information.
Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used to forecast future
price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to fundamental analysis and news
sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by India
Cements Investment Services Ltd in the company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in
this report is derived purely from technical analysis. India Cements Investment Services Ltd has based this
document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently
verified; India Cements Investment Services Ltd makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and
accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the
report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change
without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been
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