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MARCH 2020
CAA
NEWSROOM
4
Contents
Letter From the Editor 1
At Oliver Wyman, our Life, Health, and Property & Casualty President’s Message 2
actuaries provide innovative solutions to the ever-changing Notes from the Secretariat 3
insurance environment. We provide independent, objective CAA Board 2020 -22 5
advice with specialized knowledge of specific risks to Forty Years of Consulting 9
9
insurance companies, regulators and self-insured entities 29 th Annual Caribbean Actuarial Association Conference 15
across a broad spectrum of risk management issues. The Exponential Actuary Of the Future 19
The Ninja Virus 22
Learn more about our actuarial services at Your New Student Representative 26
www.oliverwyman.com/actuaries or For Readers 27
5 11
email us at actuaries@oliverwyman.com
OLIVER WYMAN
Simone Brathwaite
Building #1, 2nd Floor,
13
Chelston Park, Collymore Rock,
St. Michael, BB11000, Barbados,
246-436-9929
Simone.Brathwaite@oliverwyman.com
Business First Business First
Letter From the Editor President’s Message
Letter From the President’s
Editor Message
D D
ear Members, ear Caribbean Actuarial colleagues
Thank you for the opportunity to manage the Firstly, our thanks to Shubhash and his team for
communication process for the Caribbean Actuarial launching the CAA’s new communication initiative. I
Association. look forward to us creating a vibrant online community.
The team consists of Brian Blake, Pedro Medford, and Betty Communication is key to our mission to “support actuaries in
Black. Our aim is to produce two newsletters per year (March and the development of sustainable risk management solutions for
August) coupled with monthly bulletins. As we progress, we would Caribbean social and economic systems.”
like to engage members using social media, blogs and so on. There
are a multitude of interesting resources available, and thanks to The challenges facing our societies are complex, with underlying
improved technology these can be readily accessed. issues that are difficult to understand and communicate. We are
talking about climate change, Coronavirus, aging populations,
What we plan to do is to have features from CAA members, topic the information economy, sustainable monetisation of natural
experts and leads from conferences. We will also and summarize/ resources, underdeveloped markets and institutions, ... big things,
provide links to appropriate material from various actuaries and involving risk, human lives and finance..
actuarial associations globally.
We also have to deal with local application of standards such
For our plan to work, we need the support from our members. as IFRS 17 that were not designed for small or developing
Members can share articles which you have written, read, and also economies.
topics which you would like us to research. We have a wealth of
information from our conferences concerning areas which we can As Caribbean actuaries, we are well placed to make meaningful
explore even further. contributions to these challenges facing our societies. To do
Finally, your feedback is essential to the success of this venture. this, we have to get even more involved, and communicate even
more, with each other, with other professionals and with local and
Thank you international stakeholders. So during the next few years we hope
to do just that!
Shubhash Gosine
Chair -News and Communications Committee Kyle Rudden
Caribbean Actuarial Association President
Caribbean Actuarial Association
1 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020 MARCH 2020 | CAA NEWSROOM |2
Business First Business First
Notes from the Secretariat Committee Members
Notes from the Secretariat Events on the Horizon
H
Date Event Where
i Everyone, Governance documents. Very simple few back-end glitches so we can have
31 March 2020 SOA nominations
Our news team has given me once you log in but please do it. It’s this up and running as soon as possible.
2-8 May 2020 IAA Council and Committees Meeting Brussels, Belgium
some space to write about important! Speaking of Facebook – we have more
10-14 May 2020 Paris Colloquium (AFIR-ERM, ASTIN, IAALS, IACA, PBSS/Institut Paris, France
anything I want. So let’s start! Facebook followers than we have
des Actuaires)
Forgot or don’t have your log-in members BUT not all our members
10-13 May 2020 CAS Spring Meeting Chicago, IL
How useful do you find our website? credentials? Drop us a line and we’ll follow us on Facebook. Many students
31 May - 2 June 2020 IAC Annual Conference Bahamas
How often do you refer to it? Let’s have send them to you. say they check it regularly as a resource.
a look around. 17 -18 June 2020 CIA Annual Conference (Ottawa, ON) Ottawa, ON
We upgraded the programming and 24-26 June 2020 ICAC Conference of Accountants Miami, Fl
design of our website late last year. Please note that due to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus these dates are provisional and subject to change.
New material has been added with
There are things you can do online. Log
lots more still to come. We now have a
Resources page. Lots of useful links and
Committee Members
in to your account to pay your dues. downloads for Students and everyone LIFE PENSIONS Climate Index Working Group Chair:
Once you’re in and select Pay Dues else. We add to it regularly and, over It’s also a good place for more Birtha Pilgrim
Chair: Horace Johnson Chair: Simon Sutcliffe
you’ll be transferred to a secure server time, we’ll be adding our own material experienced members to connect with
Sapna Chatlani Astor Duggan
required by Scotia. Just a few clicks here. some of the international players who GOVERNANCE
Stefan Subnaik Willard Brown
later and you’re all up to date! When follow us. And we can also keep up to Chair: Leah Major
Cathy Allen Constance Hall
conference rolls around you can register Our Conferences & Events page is not date with what some of our colleagues Marcus Bosland
Simone Brathwaite Tricia Chamely
online too. just about the upcoming conference. do outside of work. We have academics, Michelle Chong Tai-Bell
Ex officio: Kyle Rudden Shelley Worrell
Here you’ll find presentations from 15 philanthropists and world travellers Neil Dingwall
Ex officio: Lisa Wade
Next there’s your CPD attestation. Each years of conferences! among our followers. Please feel free
STEERING
year ordinary, affiliate and associate to post comments and links on our COMMON STANDARDS
Chair: Kyle Rudden Pension Mortality Study Chair:
members must attest their compliance We made a lot of changes at the last Facebook page to share with us all.
Derek Osborne Lisa Wade Chair: Nicola Barrett
with their qualifying body for the AGM and you might be wondering why Let us know what you’d like to see on
Horace Johnson Constance Hall
previous year. Attestation for 2019 is the old Governance documents are still our website. Our Directors are all very
Kyle Rudden P&C Derek Osborne
open until 31st July 2020. Log in and up. It’s taking a little time to go through approachable and will consider your
Simone Brathwaite Chair: Shera Mungroo Neil Dingwall
two clicks later you’re good for another and update everything but the new suggestions; or drop me a line and I’ll
year. Please make sure you’re up to date By-Laws, revised Standards and other pass it on. Janet Sharp Bertha Pilgrim
Nicola Barrett Mike Smith NEWS & COMMUNICATION
with your primary before you attest. material will be up very soon.
Shera Mungroo Mylène La Belle Chair: Shubhash Gosine
If you’re not, your attestation will be Keep in touch!
Simon Sutcliffe Nirvan Singh Pedro Medford
deleted, and you’ll be recorded as non- We’re all waiting for our News page Betty Black
Ravi Rambarran Brian Blake
compliant. which is still being worked on. Most
Here’s something that’s often forgotten. of what you get in newsletters and SOCIAL SECURITY Raymond Wilson
New members must attest within a year blasts and from Facebook will also be Chair: Derek Osborne Steve Glicksman
that they’ve read and understood all our available here. We’re still ironing out a Judith Veira Ex officio: Kyle Rudden
Stewart Haynes
3 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020 MARCH 2020 | CAA NEWSROOM |4
Business First Business First
CAA Board 2020 -22 CAA Board 2020 -22
Roma Chatlani
CAA Board 2020 -22 Secretary
I
A consulting actuary at KR Services Limited. She has over 20 years of experience in actuarial
t is with great pleasure that we, the members of the CAA welcome the newly elected Board of Directors. Janet Sharp consulting, including working for several years in the UK as a life insurance consultant with
handed over the leadership role to Kyle Rudden. Janet, Sapna and Cathy have been on Council for the last few years and a major international actuarial consultancy. Roma intends to foster effective, clear and timely
will continue to provide us with their valuable contributions. The newly elected members, Roma, Saskia, Glennfor and communication with members and colleagues to promote our profile.
Pedro have stepped up to do their part. Finally, Simone has been elected to be the next President. She is an excellent choice.
Kyle Rudden
President Sapna Chatlani
A consulting actuary and chartered accountant with 30 years’ experience in financial services Treasurer
consulting, primarily in the Caribbean and Central America. At KR Services Limited, he heads
Sapna joined Colina Insurance Limited in The Bahamas in 2008. During that time she led the
a team of actuaries and related professionals providing actuarial consulting services in the life,
Health Unit of the Actuarial Department for six years and currently leads the Life Unit. Prior
non-life, pensions and banking practice areas. Kyle is committed to sustainable and ethical
to arriving in the Bahamas, Sapna spent approximately two years in Ernst and Young, London
human development initiatives, ranging from internships for underprivileged students to
working in their Actuarial Unit. Sapna started her actuarial career at Guardian Life of the
supporting actuarial and accounting educational programs internationally.
Caribbean, Trinidad & Tobago where she spent approximately five years.
Janet Sharp
Immediate Past President Pedro Medford
Janet Sharp is the Appointed Actuary for Sagicor Life Jamaica Limited (SLJ) an appointment Student Representative
she has held since 2003. Prior to September 2009 she held the position of Executive Vice Pedro is a senior manager at CIBC FirstCaribbean, based in Barbados, and is responsible
President and Resident Actuary for SLJ with direct responsibility for Corporate Actuarial for managing the bank’s pension, insurance and other benefit plans across 16 territories in
functions, administration of the Corporate Actuarial department, and risk reporting. Prior to the Caribbean. Pedro intends to focus on mentorship and support programmes for actuarial
the merger of Life of Jamaica and Island Life in 2003, Mrs. Sharp was the Vice President and students in both traditional and non-traditional fields throughout the region. He also intends
Resident Actuary for Island Life Insurance Company Limited where she started her working to increase the public awareness of the profession and of the CAA within the Caribbean.
career.
Simone Brathwaite Glennfor Hellement
President Elect Member
Simone is a Fellow of both the Canadian Institute of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries. With more than 15-year experience as an actuary. Glenn has significant experience in Solvency
She is a consulting actuary at Oliver Wyman with over 20 years’ experience in life insurance II implementation for Life Insurance companies. At Phenox Consultants he is consultant
in the Caribbean, Canada and Europe.Simone will bring a broad perspective and seasoned for insurance companies, pension funds and employers in the Dutch Caribbean. Glennfor is
enthusiasm targeted at providing our members with a CAA that enhances their careers, working towards improving the international exposure of the CAA and making CAA more
interests and investment in our profession. She feels a sense of responsibility to give back to visible and known outside the Caribbean and to other professions.
the profession that has been good to her and a belief that her practical approach and ability to
work with diverse actuaries and others will contribute to the success of the Association.
5 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020 MARCH 2020 | CAA NEWSROOM |6
Business First
CAA Board 2020 -22
Cathy Allen
Member
Cathy is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries and a member of the American Academy of
Actuaries. She is Corporate Actuary at Sagicor Life Jamaica and has over 25 years’ experience
in the regulatory and life insurance fields. Cathy continues working to advance the profile and
objectives of the CAA.
Saskia M-Holtuin
Member
Saskia has been a member of the Royal Dutch Actuarial Association (Koninklijk Actuarieel
Genootschap) for over 20 years. She is Actuarial Director at Actuarieel Bureau Lo Fo Wong,
providing consulting services to pension funds and employers in Suriname. Saskia believes
that joint effort is required to further the CAA objectives. She intends to be a committed team
player.
7 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020
From our Communit y
Forty Years of Consulting
T
he Honourable Daisy
Coke O.J., C.D. was
awarded the Order
of Jamaica for her
distinguished and outstanding
contribution to the development
of the Financial sector and public
service to Jamaica. This is her take
on her work as a consulting actuary
for over forty years.
“Why did you choose
consulting?”
When I was studying in the UK
,I was one of the students who
were invited to join a “Tea Party”
organized by Monica Allanach
(then a lady FIA in management
at the Prudential Assurance
Company) for lady actuaries. It
was not a large gathering but I
met some of the early lady FIAs/
FFA s and it turned out there were
consultants in the group. There
was Pat Merriman of Bacon &
Woodrow, who later became one of
my partners when we established
the Jamaican branch of Bacon
Forty Years of Woodrow & de Souza (BWdS) in
1973. There was Isabel Laurence
FFA from the Government
Consulting
Actuary’s Department to which
I was seconded for most of my
student years in London. There was
also Jill Outhwaite Evans of GAD
A conversation with an icon of the actuarial profession who had qualified the year before I
Interview by Shubhash Gosine joined the GAD. When I qualified
in 1970, I was the 13th living lady
FIA. So, relatively speaking, it
would not have struck me then that
9 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020 MARCH 2020 | CAA NEWSROOM |10
From our Communit y From our Communit y
Forty Years of Consulting Forty Years of Consulting
consulting was not for the ladies. What was clear was that “What challenges did you face in your early “What Race and gender inequalities did you members.
the profession was quite small, compared to, say, lawyers and days and later on when you were established?” experience?”
accountants. In the early years I was quite surprised that a number There were too few of us practicing in Jamaica for either of “How did the projects develop? Were you preferred
of clients felt that our fees were too high. They paid, these inequalities to matter. since you were local?”
On my return to Jamaica I was appointed Government remained our clients for many years, but in the beginning By a combination of word-of-mouth recommendation
Actuary in the Ministry of Finance. The same Ministry which were taken aback. I think as the “How did you manage from satisfied clients plus interaction with all the trade
funded my years of study for the actuarial exams. I branched relationships developed and they “When you qualified, competition from International unions, the news slowly spread that we were dependable.
When the BWdS Jamaica branch was launched, we invited
out to consulting because I felt I was not succeeding in became more comfortable with firms and individuals?”
convincing the civil service establishment that my training us they began to appreciate the Consulting actuaries The competition from foreign potential clients to a cocktail party to introduce the firm. I
could be harnessed to contribute to public policy. This was
the period when our Minister of Finance was embarking
financial impact of our advice. were few and also an consultants was always present. In fact
we lived through a period when foreign
remember being asked why we were associating with so many
“establishment” persons. After that, each year we had a huge
on a vigorous programme of localization of the banks and Later we had to educate our clients exclusive group, men professionals were thought to be more office party on the last Friday in January –just when all the
insurance companies. One of the constraints was that if I did Xmas celebrations were over. The timing was strategic. The
not serve the full period of my bond, I would have to repay a
that the work requires thought and
time for completion. One Easter
only.” competent than the locals and this was
true across many fields. I think my venue was fantastic. Many of us forget how lovely it is to be
portion of the cost of my training. The options were to seek time the Minister of Finance offered to lock us in his advantage was that I had confidence in the overseas training outdoors in the cool January evenings. So a good time was
employment in a market with two life insurance companies, offices, thinking that this would allow us to get through I had received and a great zeal to make my contribution had by clients and potential clients. A number of players in
or hang up my own shingle and venture into consulting. the calculations to inform his announcement the next at home. So I just worked hard and made sure that my the financial sector unashamedly confessed that our client
Mervyn de Souza, a Trinidadian who had qualified in 1963, week of certain social security funding and benefit clients really listened to us. Also, by networking with other party was a fruitful venue for marketing their services. The
also from GAD, visited me in Kingston and suggested that I changes. Of course, we had not yet received the requisite professionals and the policy makers, I eventually became attendees were no longer “establishment”.
consider establishing the Jamaican branch of BWDS after I data so we too enjoyed the Easter break! the face of the Jamaican actuary, so to speak. I joined and
had served out the time for which I was bonded. became a fellow of the Institute of Management Consultants “What was your role as a consultant in developing
of Jamaica (IMCJ) which offered collegiate support to its the financial industry – the stakeholders, market
structure, laws and regulations?”
Starting with my tie as Government Actuary, I was a member
of a small committee set up to work on Securities legislation.
We met in the evenings after work. I worked on the Insurance
Act which was promulgated shortly after I left the civil
service. The establishment of the National Insurance Board
developed from my recommendation which was accepted by
successive administrations. Its purpose was to invest the NIS
Funds and diversify to other assets than Government stocks.
I served on the Boards of a number of banks, insurance
companies, development banks and key statutory boards that
were involved in infrastructure and tourism development
(NHP, JBC, Prices Commission, JIDC, TDB). BOJ-
Independence Inquiry. By the time the FSC was established I
was able to marshal Jamaican members of the CAA to rescue
the pensions Act and Regulations governing the operations
of private pension funds.
11 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020 MARCH 2020 | CAA NEWSROOM |12
From our Communit y
Forty Years of Consulting
Public sector pensions-ditto. Participation by a number of Panjer (Waterloo University), Haberman (City University)
actuaries students too,, mainly private sector, attended and and MacClauchin (Heriot Watt University) helped with the
participated in the Joint Parliamentary Select Committee. structuring of the courses and were external examiners. The
CAA gave us breadth. We have survived 25+ years and have
“How difficult was it for you to manage your grown. It is a matter of great pride that we did establish our
business in a tough political environment” regional association. We still have relevance.
The political environment affected us in an economic
sense. In period of the 70s, when the country had severe “When you started it was pen, paper, calculators
foreign exchange shortages, we learned to attend overseas and some standard tables. Now you can Google
conferences on a shoe string. I had promised myself in from your phone. Technology is pushing the barriers
my student years in London that I would return and go and finding new horizons. Are we as a profession
shopping on London’s Bond St. with money in my purse just staying ahead? Or are we being marginalized?”
to experience what it feels like to be able to actually choose I see us staying ahead. Some of us have not fully woken
goods from those stores. Similar feeling should have been up to the realization of what potential we have to continue
mine when I tried shoes in Ballet Suisse Palais in Switzerland. to impact our communities. On balance, I think todays
Less frivolous reply? Attended actuarial conferences (IACA, actuary has reason to be excited and get on with the task of
IAA, SOA, CIA) on tight budget as it was necessary to contributing to the evolution of the profession.
participate, learn, keep up, CPD. Remember this was the
era before internet. Luckily I was able to have my Jamaican “What would you want to see based on your
colleagues join me and we had wonderful times. actuarial model of the profession over the next 20
years? In particular, actuaries moving to the front
“What lessons were learnt from the roller-coaster of the queue in matters of public interest and public
ride that has been Jamaica’s economy over the good.”
years?” As discussed at the 2018 CAA conference, we have to be
The old-time wisdom of “saving for a rainy day” is still good present where public policy is being developed and participate
practice. confidently. We live here.
“You have maintained your reputation and upheld
the highest of standards in our profession. What
words of wisdom would you pass on to this and the
next generation?”
Just make your mark. Start where you are.
“How did you benefit from being a member of
professional organizations and founding member
of the Caribbean Actuarial Association?”
These were important to me even before CPD became
mandatory. I made a number of lasting contacts. When
UWI was establishing the actuarial science department, we
were able through these links, to garner help. In fact Harry
13 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020
29 th Annual Caribbean Actuarial Association Conference
December 4-6 2019
Santa Barbara Beach & Golf Resort
T
Williemstad, Curaçao
he 29th Annual Conference New Rules, New Challenges and New were many questions about the $1
of the CAA commenced with Customers” was presented by Ana billion JMD contribution to be made
the official Welcome from Maria Ramirez from Mexico. Some by the Government over a period of
the CAA President, Mrs Janet of the new risks covered were climate 4 years to “top up” the pensions of
Sharp; after which was the Conference change, cyber security risks, new the old tourism workers. The scheme
Chairperson, Stacey René spoke. technology related risks, confidentiality will be a defined contribution one and
risks and health care risks. will register its first set of members in
The Theme, “Dare to Share”, was quite March 2020.
appropriate as the programme was The final session on Thursday was on
diverse. The presenters did a great job “Sustainable and Adequate Promises”. Finally, Frank Van Berkum, of the
of sharing their ideas. In this session sustainability in health University of Amsterdam covered
care, social security and pensions two models used in the derivation
For the first time, we had a moderator in Netherlands was covered. The of mortality assumptions for small
for the conference, Sentini Grunberg. Netherlands is seen as a country where populations or portfolios. They were
The first plenary session on Thursday defined benefit plans have worked the Generalised Linear Models (GLMs)
5th December was on Diversity and very well over the years and have and Generalised Addictive Models
Inclusion, a pet topic of Cathy Lyn. consequently ranked high worldwide. (GAMs). He concluded that GAMs are
She was joined on the panel by Marjorie They have consistently delivered high the way to go.
Ngwenya (Past President of the IFoA), replacement ratios and are popular with
Wendy John and Gino Jacobs. It was the members. Astor Duggan
an interesting and unusual presentation, Managing Director
very well performed. Friday began with a plenary which Duggan Consulting Limited
covered “How Technology Drives Jamaica
The topics on the first day also Actuaries”. The panel discussion
covered the ongoing collapse and covered aspects of artificial intelligence
uncertain future of Venezuela as well (its application and impact), cyber risk
as challenges and opportunities for and Block Chain in insurance. The
Caribbean countries. There was a topics were adequately covered by the
viewpoint put forward based on certain panellists.
financial and economic calculations that
the US was bankrupt. Most of the other sessions on Friday
were concurrent sessions. The session
Another excellent first day topic was on on “Pensions and Hospitality” was
“Lessons from the African Insurance done by Sheryl Haynes and Elma
Industry”. Marjorie Ngwenya covered Velgersdijk. Ms Haynes, an attorney
various aspects of the insurance from Jamaica, covered the new Tourism
industries in South Africa, Kenya and Industry Pension Scheme (the Act was
Nigeria. passed by parliament in September
2019). It covers employed and self-
The session on “New Generations, employed tourism workers. There
15 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020 MARCH 2020 | CAA NEWSROOM |16From our Communit y From our Communit y
29thAnnualCaribbeanActuarialAssociationConference 29thAnnualCaribbeanActuarialAssociationConference
T
he Caribbean Actuarial IFRS17 implementation. This hands- The CAA conference in Curaçao was
Association (“CAA”) hosted on approach gave attendees practical definitely a conference of many firsts
its’ 29th Annual Conference knowledge and insights into the impacts for the CAA and kudos were given
for the first time ever in the of this new insurance accounting to the local organising committee of
Dutch Caribbean island of Curaçao standard that is scheduled to go into Stacey René, Devon Meilink, Elma
under the theme “Dare to Share”. effect January 1, 2022. Velgersdijk, Glennfor Hellement and
Mike Veenboer who dared to share their
The attendees were a melting pot The excitement of attendees was dushi Curaçao!
of international and Caribbean clear throughout the conference.
actuaries, actuarial students and other Participants eagerly went from session Pedro Medford
professionals from diverse fields to session each day, enjoying the myriad Student Representative
and sectors who descended on the of engaging topics being covered. A Caribbean Actuarial Association
Santa Barbara Beach & Golf Resort few standout sessions included the Barbados
for a packed three-day agenda from presentation by the Past President of
December 4th - 6th, 2019. the IFoA, Marjorie Ngwenya, on the
African insurance industry, Matthew
Consistent with the conference theme, Battersby’s insightful presentation See the full
the presenters for the professionalism on behavioural science and under- conference
sessions dared to share on decision- insurance, Edward Kuo’s presentation booklet by clicking
making from a Dutch perspective on using R for actuarial modelling and here or using the
and for the first time, included a the eye-opening presentations and plan QR code
much welcomed interactive session discussion on the sustainability and
with a focus on case studies and a different approaches to health care,
panel discussion on decision making social security schemes and pensions in
and preventing scenarios that may the Dutch Caribbean, the Netherlands,
eventually require whistle-blowing if left Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean.
unchecked. First day attendees also took
in a session on the expanding actuarial Finally, it would not be a CAA
skill-set, delivered by Jeroen Breen, an conference without Caribbean-themed
actuary and mathematician from The evening social activities. In Curaçao,
Netherlands. Caribbean cuisine was served and
rhythmic Caribbean music filled the
Another first for the CAA Conference air, creating the perfect atmosphere
was the inclusion of practical hands-on for conference attendees to network
demos. The focus was on the end to and mingle. The word going around
end process of the IFRS17 modelling was that the first conference to be held
process, including calculations and in Curacao was beyond expectations
accounting treatment processes. These and the new format of the conference
were followed by presentations on booklet, which was informative and well
noted trends and progress around designed, was a definite hit!
17 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020 MARCH 2020 | CAA NEWSROOM |18From our Communit y From our Communit y
The Exponential Actuary Of the Future The Exponential Actuary Of the Future
down, rearranging, ordering certain Challenges for actuaries: a evangelist at RGA Reinsurance Co., Inc
elements of reality. The expression perfect storm of factors said. “Some people do not want to rock
‘taking risks’, used to characterize the In 2015, actuary was the number 1 job the boat, but others of us think if we
spirit of enterprise, derives from the at careercast.com. This rating rapidly don’t we will become obsolete.”
application of this type of calculus fell to 10th position in 2016, with data
to economic and financial affairs. scientist becoming the number 1 job. “The whole world is going to change,”
Rather than with the notions of danger In 2017, actuary was rated as 11th Halal said. “It will be a catastrophic,
and peril, the notion of risk goes top job. Isn’t this scary? And does it more turbulent world.” In that world,
The Exponential Actuary Of the together with those of chance, hazard,
probability, eventuality or randomness
on the one hand, and those of loss or
represent a temporary
downgrading or
different professions will be engaged
“Actuaries must adapt
irreversible shrinkage?
Future damage on the other - the two series
coming together in the notion of
and acquire new roles
The future of actuaries cannot be ascertained without looking at the macro “meta-trends”
accident. [...]
William Halal is a
professor emeritus at
as the old ones become
working in the larger scheme of things. The insurer’s activity is not just a matter
of passively registering the existence
George Washington redundant”
By Syed Danish Ali University and
of risks, and then offering guarantees founder of TechCast Global Inc., a in a struggle to determine the survival
Originally poseted on insurancenexus.com of the fittest, Halal said. The winners
A
against them. He produces risks, he research corporation that uses collective
makes risks appear where each person intelligence from 150 expert futurists will be those who not only embrace
ctuaries were the original mechanisms that take a whole life to technology takes in a given institution had hitherto felt obliged to submit technology but also can weld it into new
to forecast the future. TechCast Global
data scientists (apart from experience and realize. at a given moment depends on an resignedly to the blows of fortune. It opportunities.
predicts there is a 60 percent probability
intelligence societies in “Insurance designates not so much insurantial imaginary: that is to say, is characteristic of insurance that it that, in the next 10 years, artificial
the militaries) and insurers a concept as an abstract technology. on the ways in which, in a given social constitutes a certain type of objectivity, The challenge, and the promise, for
intelligence will be good enough to
were innovators of their times in being Using the vocabulary of the nineteenth- context, profitable, useful and necessary giving certain familiar events a kind the actuarial profession is managing a
eliminate routine intelligence work,
data-focused when there were not century actuaries, economists and uses can be found for insurance of reality which alters their nature. By shrinking world in which connections
Halal said. “More sophisticated artificial
even calculators and computers. But publicists, we can say that the technology. [...] Insurance technology objectivizing certain events as risks, among the data — and the size of the
intelligence systems mean computers
on a deeper level, what was the origin technology of insurance is an art of and actuarial science did not fall from insurance can invert their meanings: data — are expanding exponentially.
will handle the routine work of
of actuaries? How did this profession ‘combinations’. Not that insurance the mathematical skies to incarnate it can make what was previously an actuaries, thus displacing the number
come into being? Actuaries and is itself a combination, but it is themselves in institutions. They were obstacle into a possibility. Insurance Today, actuarial teams are still integral
crunching role,” he said. Actuaries
insurance have a social context to their something which, on the basis of a built up gradually out of multiple assigns a new mode of existence to in financial services; however, their role
will have to think of their function in
origins, and it is necessary to explain technology of risk, makes possible practices which they reflected and previously dreaded events; it creates has become relatively more compliance-
industry minus the trademark tasks that
that. a range of insurance combinations rationalized, practices of which they value [...] focused. Their contribution to broader
many have been doing.
shaped to suit their assigned function were more effects than causes, and it business and strategic decisions has
These are perspective-changing and intended utility-effect. Considered would be wrong to imagine that they Insurance is one of those practices diminished. Actuarial teams have moved
Actuaries must adapt and acquire new
and incredibly invaluable excerpts as a technology, insurance is an art have now assumed a definite shape. [...] linked to what Pascal called the towards reporting and maintaining
roles as the old ones become redundant.
from the essay “insurance and risk of combining various elements of ‘geometry of hazard’ or ‘algebra of of models rather than strategic
“I think disruptive technology is going
by the philosopher Francois Ewald economic and social reality according to Insurance can be defined as a chances’ and is today called the calculus insight generation. Furthermore,
to diminish the need for actuaries
for defining insurance in its social a set of specific rules. [...] technology of risk. [...] As a technology of probabilities.” underinvestment in actuarial teams over
unless we embrace it in a way that
context. In few sentences, Francois is of risk, insurance is first and foremost a time, combined with the resourcefulness
shows value,” David Snell, technology
gracefully able to explain the underlying The particular form insurance schema of rationality, a way of breaking of the actuaries, has resulted in a
19 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020 MARCH 2020 | CAA NEWSROOM |20From our Communit y From our Communit y
The Exponential Actuary Of the Future The Ninja Virus
generation of actuaries who are not well automated. dominated their industries for decades.
equipped to meet the strategic needs
of the organization. A huge proportion The strategy and path that got us
They were often ruthlessly competitive,
relentlessly focused on the market and The Ninja Virus
of actuaries are set to retire and there into this present and the past, is not led by competent strategic thinkers.
Silent and deadly the story of COVID-19 so far
is little that can fill that gap made up of necessarily the one that will be good for In many ways, they succumbed to
years and years of experience. our future. At its heart, the failure to disruption not despite, but because of, By Brent Walker
adapt - substantial to date - is a failure that focus. We need someone to have
Actuaries are head-on in regulatory, of imagination on the part of actuaries a vision of potential irrelevancy and to SARS-COV-2 is the virus. COVID-19 is the
compliance and operational work but as to what could be done instead of ask questions related to a reality that is disease
their mode of operation is still linear only what is currently being done. We yet to emerge. To quote Nietzsche, you
The virus can kill by Acute Respiratory Syndrome or
and not exponential. Actuaries need to have to focus on strategic leadership must have some chaos within you to
pneumonia. That is: the virus clogs up so many of the
hone their strategy skills more than their instead of being number crunchers give birth to a dancing star.
alveoli of the lungs that blood becomes so hypoxic that
spreadsheet skills. The latest technology living in their own objective reality.
organs fail and life ceases. About 80% of people who get this
can be utilized to minimize the time gap We have to essentially inspire people, We need to have a vision and build
disease will get a mild form of it and will recover without
between thought and execution so that systems, and practitioners and spark a new system collectively. It’s easier
medical intervention. Probably about 5% to 10% will require
actuaries can start focusing on making their imaginations to bring in more to stay in our comfort zones by
hospitalisation and most of them will recover. Although the
actionable insights. creative solutions to our problems. How implementing new regulations (IFRS
World Health Organisation has not yet called COVID-19 a
are we, as a profession, realigning our 17, 9 and many more) but we have to
pandemic as of the time of writing this, Australia, like many
For the actuarial profession, this is an structures around disruptive innovation? shift from regulatory-based innovation
other countries is preparing for when large numbers of cases
opportunity to foster the perception to technology-based innovation to
will start appearing. World stock markets are already reacting
of commerciality and agility while It is easy to dismiss these thoughts as futureproof our profession.
as though WHO has called it a Pandemic.
keeping the existing reputation for high fantasy as there is a clash of mentality
standards and technical excellence. between the hopeful futurist and the
Disease Data
Actuarial functions are at risk of skeptical actuary; but then again, it’s
Syed Danish Ali is current deputy The following data is obtained from “The Epidemiological
becoming a compliance function, easy to underestimate the pace of
manager of PKF Albassam & Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus
unless individual actuaries, actuarial change as change does not happen
Partners based in Karachi, Pakistan Diseases (COVID-19) — China, 2020” by several Chinese
functions, and the profession undertake in a linear manner. “In retrospect,
a fundamental transformation. all revolutions seem inevitable. epidemiologists and determined from data at 11 February
Beforehand, all revolutions seem This is the first in a series of articles written 2020. Other sources are referenced.
Current actuarial functions are at full impossible.” That observation, by Syed. You can continue to part 2 by clocking
capacity but not at full potential, with attributed to Michael McFaul, former here or using the QR code. Mortality Rate – 2.3%.
the key driver being outdated tech stack, US Ambassador to Russia, is just as Calculated by the same method of calculation at February
being handcuffed by legacy systems, applicable to business and economic 26 it is 3.4% worldwide). But these figures are based on
lack of skills in data science and failure revolutions as it is to political ones. confirmed cases and these will be significantly understated
to adopt a strategic mindset. We should possibly by hundreds of thousands and the deaths will also
not think that ‘actuarial judgement’ is It may sound illogical, but organizations be significantly understated possibly by many, if not tens
a priceless black box made possible get disrupted not by doing the wrong of thousands. There are many reasons for this including
solely by intuition of human beings; it is thing, but by doing the right thing. The faulty testing kits, not enough of them and many infected
logical process that can be broken down long list of companies that have fallen people electing not to get tested and end up in hospitals or
into many sub-processes to be then victim to disruption includes firms that other temporary infirmaries where, if they are not currently
21 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020 MARCH 2020 | CAA NEWSROOM |22From our Communit y From our Communit y
The Ninja Virus The Ninja Virus
isolated for a further two weeks after There is little
Patients, deaths, and case fatalities for confirmed COVID-19 cases in Mainland China as of February 11, 2020.
they are cured. It can also be spread evidence of “Sabotage, deception and
AGE 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 >79 Overall through faeces. So possibly even the the virus surprise attacks were the
flushing away of faeces of an infected contaminating
person may cause some virus particles a patient’s
trademark of a Ninja. This
to become airborne and infect the next blood stream, seems to sum up the SARS-
person using that toilet or adjacent but a small COV-19 virus. The best defence
toilets in that toilet block. It would number
of a Samurai against a Ninja
therefore be spread very easily in “hole- of deaths
in-the -ground” toilets in China, other have been attack was to be aware of their
Cases 416 548 3,612 7,582 8,533 9,878 8,274 3,606 1,200 43,649 Asian and some Moslem countries. The attributed presence, to stay strong and to
Deaths 0 1 7 18 38 130 309 312 208 1,023
faecal contamination arises through the to viral not be afraid.”
virus contaminating the gastro-intestinal myocarditis.
infected person!
infected, they believe that they could also be noted that the Chinese data advise it is between 2 and 3. (Measles tract via the nose and throat. This means the virus has contaminated
then get infected. was at February 11. On February 12 is 15 but flu is usually less than 2). the pericardium and then the
Another experience worth noting is
the Chinese Health Ministry decided But some people are super spreaders The test for the virus relies on the heart muscles. To contaminate the
the spread of the virus in South Korea.
The mortality rate in Hubei was around to include people who were positively and can infect many. (See below on its person being tested producing pericardium and myocardium suggests,
It is thought that the initial source of
6%. But even Chinese authorities admit diagnosed by CT scan. This alone incubation period and how it infects antibodies and it is the presence to the author, that it may have got into
infection was a single infected person
the case numbers and deaths (to a lesser increased the case numbers by 1/3rd others). R0 can be manipulated by of the antibodies that the blood stream of those patients.
at a religious conference in Daegu and
extent) are under reported. So, it is on that day. The reason for this change infection control measures such as confirms the
was then spread to other cities by the
likely to be a lot less. As of February was produced in a paper released online mandatory isolation of people who may patient is Spread of the Disease
participants of that conference. Even
29, death rate of the cases resolved on February 26 . The paper explained have become infected. infected. The experience of the passengers on when the initially infected woman was
(recovery or death) on the WHO that there were a high proportion of JAMA the Diamond Princess was interesting obviously sick, she refused to go to
website shows a mortality rate of 7.9%. false negatives in RT-PCR test, which How it is Spread online, and very distressing. The Diamond hospital to be tested. At the time of
But mild cases, that have not been was supposed to be the gold standard After 11 February epidemiologists have Feb 21 Princess was put effectively into writing this, the virus is spreading faster
reported would likely number several test, and far fewer when a CT scan of confirmed the virus can be spread by reported a person quarantine in Yokohama because 1 in South Korea than any other country
times the reported cases and hence the the chest was used to determine if the aerosolization. This means that it is not was asymptomatic passenger tested positive to the virus (Although that is most likely because
real death rate is much lower. patient had the disease. It seems unlikely just spread like flu by exhumed droplets for some weeks and after getting off at Hong Kong. At that the numbers there are more accurate
Older age groups are much more likely to the author that a chest CT scan will on surfaces (and being picked up by tested negative to the time the virus was not known to have than anywhere else). It is likely that
to die of this disease than younger age conclusively indicate a patient as having hands and transferred to mucus virus because she had not become aerosolized. But that became North Korea will have many times the
groups. This is believed to be because the disease if they have only a mild membranes – eyes, nose, mouth) produced the usual antibodies, obvious as more and more passengers number of infected people than South
older infected people had more co- form of the disease. but by small clumps, possibly even which meant that technically the got sick. As of February 26, after 3 Korea because of the porosity of its
morbidities (diabetes and hypertension single viruses, being spread through the patient was not infected yet was highly weeks of quarantine, 705 passengers border with China. The reported cases
in particular). Australia has about twice R0 (Infection rate) – 4.08%. air after being shed from the lungs in infectious during that time. There was and crew have tested positive out of the of the virus in Vietnam and Thailand
the proportion of elderly who are at This was the earliest calculation of the normal breathing of an infected person. one day that she did test positive, so 3711 passengers and crew quarantined are also likely to be a fraction of the real
risk than China so could conceivably infection rate, or the average number Even after an infected person immune they were able to deduce that she had on February 4. There have been 4 number – for the same reason.
be harder hit than China. Although of other persons someone infected system has beaten the virus and is it (as did all the people that she lived deaths. Some passengers have been
preliminary data suggests males are with the virus will infect . Since January effectively cured the lungs will still shed with) but the day after she again tested transferred to their home countries and There seems to be a major outbreak in
more likely to die than females this is 29 estimates on R0 have varied from this virus for around two more weeks. negative. have since contracted the disease. So, Iran, which appears to have originated
not conclusive at this stage. It should around 2.3 to 6. WHO currently So Chinese doctors are keeping patients at least 705 cases arose from just one
23 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020 MARCH 2020 | CAA NEWSROOM |24From our Communit y Of Interest
The Ninja Virus Your New Student Representative
in religious capital Qom. Iran does not with this virus the infected person will their close contact with infected people
appear to have enough reliable testing
kits or medical care to cope with the
outbreak. It has already spread from
be infectious for almost the whole of
the incubation period. This means that
infected people can be quite well and
so that will also put additional stress
on the hospital system. Once a hospital
system becomes completely stressed
Yo u r N e w S t u d e n t
Iran to many other middle eastern functioning normally for 2 weeks or then difficult decisions will have to be
Representative
W
countries, as many Moslems travel longer yet oblivious to the fact they are made as to whom will get any treatment
to Qom from many other countries. infecting other people, who also may that may be currently available. Dentists
elcome from your new exam support and actuarial professional literacy, assisting the CAA’s technical
Many countries in the Middle East do or may not get sick for some weeks and are also very susceptible to infection
Student Representative! development. Additionally, the world and working committees on research
not have the facilities to cope with this so be infecting others. Patient’s lungs because of their close contact with their
The Caribbean of work is changing as many companies projects, collaborating with the diverse
virus. keep on shedding the virus for around patient’s breath and saliva.
Actuarial Association are taking more control over key risks pool of students now practicing in non-
Because of China’s Belt and Road 2 weeks after their body has successfully
was officially formed in Jamaica in through in-sourcing. This has created traditional fields to share knowledge
initiative there is continual traffic repelled the virus. So, one can be What should be done with persons who
December 1991 and since then our many opportunities for actuarial and undertake research activities to
between many African countries and infectious for up to 6 or more weeks are infected but are not so sick as to
community and membership has students who have realised that their make recommendations to the relevant
China, so it is highly likely that the virus after contracting the virus and for much require hospital treatment? Also, what
grown across several territories in the actuarial skillset is transferable to non- authorities, volunteering through school
has taken hold in those countries. But of this time without even knowing of is to be done with people who have
region, including a recent surge in the traditional fields such as enterprise math outreach programmes to increase
the extent of any infection is unknown the infection. This makes this virus been in recent contact with people who
participation of our brothers and sisters risk management, investing banking, mathematical literacy throughout the
and will remain that way for some time incredibly insidious. have just become sick? It is unlikely
in the Dutch Caribbean. business analytics, retirement financing Caribbean, and so much more.
as these countries are poor and lack the that, for example NSW or Victoria, can
and broad-based business management.
type of health facilities needed to cope Once an infected person becomes shut down Sydney or Melbourne in the
This expansion and inclusivity of the As student representative, my intent is We are the Caribbean actuaries of the
with the spread of this virus. sick some, it seems around 10%, will same way as China shut down Hubei,
CAA, especially of our actuarial student to welcome and engage these students future and the CAA is committed to
require hospital treatment but both the Chengdu or Beijing, each of which is
members, is paramount as we seek to to become members of the CAA as your development!
There is an outbreak in Italy (at hospitalised and the non-hospitalised far larger than Sydney and Melbourne
ensure the continuity of our profession. they are the actuaries of the future and
February 27, officially the 3rd highest must be isolated otherwise they will combined?
One of the CAA’s strategic objective is we need to bridge the support gap to Let us work together to continue on our
outbreak in the World with 470 cases continue to infect others. Once people
around developing Caribbean actuaries bring traditional and non-traditional path of developing our profession.
and 12 deaths). This has resulted in are sick, their immune systems seem
of the future. Currently, the CAA actuaries together through networking
some Northern Italian towns housing to take 2-4 weeks to counteract the
Brent Walker is Principal at Brent does quite a bit for tertiary students activities, student engagement and Pedro Medford
some 50,000 people being closed and virus during which time they remain
Walker Actuarial Services based in during their formal education, offering creating mentorship opportunities. Student Representative
conferences cancelled. As of the date infectious. Of those needing hospital
Sydney, Australia scholarships, actuarial exam refunds Caribbean Actuarial Association
this was written the original infected treatment it seems that something like
and sponsoring activities like The UWI As at October 31, 2019, actuarial
person has not been found. half will need oxygen and perhaps
The views expressed in the article are solely Math Olympiad. As we transition students were the largest membership
half of those people will eventually
Three Major Problems with the those of the contributor. from being university students to fully class of the CAA, accounting for 35% Due to the rapidly progressing situation
need intensive care. These proportions
qualified actuaries, this educational of our total membership. We must regarding the COVID-19 virus, please check
Ninja Virus will be much higher for older people The situation surrounding and information support fades away. not underestimate our ability to make for information regarding possible date changes
According to WHO this virus has an and people with co-morbidities – concerning the COVID-19 pandemic has valuable contributions within the or cancellations of exams for your respective
incubation period of 2-14 days (WHO particularly diabetes and hypertension. changed rapidly since the penning of this With more students now graduating actuarial community and society. There actuarial examining body.
av. 5.7 days but other calculations put Clearly, if this virus was to infect even article. For up to date information on with actuarial degrees and entering is much that we could do as students,
it as high as 12.5 days) but with outliers 20% of the Australian population then COVID-19 please see the non-traditional roles, there is often supported by our mentors, around
of 0-27 days. This wouldn’t be so bad if our hospitals would not be able to cope. World Health Organization little support for these students as it educating civil society in the areas
during the incubation stage the infected Hospital staff are also more likely to be
relates to mentorship, career guidance, of retirement planning and financial
person was not infectious. However, infected than other people because of
25 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020 MARCH 2020 | CAA NEWSROOM |26Of Interest
For Readers
F or this edition here are some articles of interest from
the International Monetary Fund.
Word From the IMF
Climate Change and Financial Risk
Climate change is already a reality. Ever-more-ferocious cyclones and extended droughts lead to the
destruction of infrastructure and the disruption of livelihoods and contribute to mass migration. Actions
to combat rising temperatures, inadequate though they may have been so far, have the potential to drive
dislocation in the business world as fossil fuel giants awaken to the need for.....read more
Epidemics and Economics
Infectious diseases and associated mortality have abated, but they remain a significant threat throughout
the world. We continue to fight both old pathogens, such as the plague, that have troubled humanity for
millennia and new pathogens, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), that have ....read more
The Long and Short of the Digital Revolutions
Digital platforms are recasting the relationships between customers, workers, and employers as the
silicon chip’s reach permeates almost everything we do—from buying groceries online to finding a
partner on a dating website. As computing power improves dramatically and more and more people
around the world participate in the digital economy, we should think carefully about ....read more
Nature’s Solutions to Climate Change
Scientific research now indicates more clearly than ever that our carbon footprint—the release of
carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere where it contributes to global warming through the so-called
greenhouse effect—now threatens our ecosystems and our way of life. But efforts to mitigate climate
change face two significant challenges. The first is to find effective ....read more
The Truth about the Dark Web
In the late 1990s, two research organizations in the US Department of Defense drove efforts to develop
an anonymized and encrypted network that would protect the sensitive communications of US spies.
This secret network would not be known or accessible to ordinary internet surfers. And while the
original clandestine intention was never fully realized, some of the researchers saw ....read more
27 | CAA NEWSROOM | MARCH 2020Vision Statement Vibrant actuarial thought leadership for the Caribbean. Mission Statement Supporting actuaries in the development of sustainable risk management solutions for Caribbean social and economic systems. CONTACT Email: sbgosine@hotmail.com Website: https://www.caa.com.bb/
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