CairnsWatch January 2020 - cairns watch
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CairnsWatch
January 2020
Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Telephone: 4057 0200
Cairns Qld 4870 Email:cairns@htw.com.au
PO Box 6843 www.htw.com.au
Cairns Qld 4870 www.cairnswatch.com.au
Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Telephone: 4057 0200
Cairns Qld 4870 Email:cairns@htw.com.au
PO Box 6843 www.htw.com.au
Cairns Qld 4870 www.cairnswatch.com.au
OVERVIEW AT A GLANCE
Although the Cairns economy has continued to slowly improve during the Employment Trend: ▲ 5.4% (December 2018 to December 2019)
course of 2019, current business conditions remain tough, influenced by a
slowdown in tourism numbers, soft construction activity, and a plateau in Unemployment Rate Trend: ▲ to 5.8% (as at December 2019)
employment growth. In addition, there are more clouds gathering on the
horizon (e.g. from coronavirus) than there are rays of sunlight. Airport Passenger Trend: ▼ 2.7% (December 2018 to December 2019)
Similarly the Cairns property market has continued to plod along during Rental Vacancy Trend: ► at 1.7% (as at December 2019)
2019 with its fundamental state remaining unchanged.
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The Fine Print:
Information in this publication is based on an analysis of data from a number of sources, subjected to technical
procedures of seasonal adjustment and trend analysis. Seasonal adjustment is a means of removing the
effects of normal seasonal variation from the data, so that comparisons can be made of data against their
established seasonal patterns. Trend analysis smooths the seasonally adjusted estimates to provide a clearer
picture of the underlying behaviour of the series over time. The trend estimates are derived by applying a 13-
term Henderson-weighted moving average to the seasonally adjusted data. It applies the same procedures
used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in producing trends for national aggregates.
No responsibility is accepted to any third party that may use or rely on the whole or any part of the content of this
publication.
Rick Carr
Neither the whole nor any part of this publication or any reference thereto may be included in any published or
Research Consultant photocopied documents, circular or statement, nor transmitted or published in part or full in any way, including
Herron Todd White Cairns electronically, without written approval of the form and context in which it may appear.
Phone: 07 4057 0200 Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. The scheme does not apply
within Tasmania.
Fax: 07 4051 3946
Email: rick.carr@htw.com.au © HTW Copyright 2020
CairnsWatch January 2020 2Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Telephone: 4057 0200
Cairns Qld 4870 Email:cairns@htw.com.au
PO Box 6843 www.htw.com.au
Cairns Qld 4870 www.cairnswatch.com.au
EMPLOYMENT
Persons Employed in the Cairns Region Cairns Region Unemployment Rate
Number of Persons Employed (Log Scale) Unemployment Rate (Actual and Trend Basis)
140,000 12%
Actual Trend Cairns Region All Queensland
10%
130,000
8%
120,000
6%
4%
110,000
2%
100,000 0%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19
Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data Source: Derived from ABS Labour Force Survey data
Trend employment figures for the Cairns Region (inclusive of Cairns, the The trend unemployment rate in the Cairns Region has been rising since the
Cassowary Coast, Douglas and the Tablelands) have eased back a touch start of 2019, initially due to more people coming out of the woodwork to
from the record high observed in June 2019, suggesting that employment look for work, but more recently as employment growth has plateaued. The
growth has plateaued. The figures show a trend level of 130,700 persons Cairns Region recorded a seasonally adjusted trend unemployment rate of
employed during December 2019, down slightly from the trend estimate of 5.8% as at December 2019, up from 4.2% in December 2018.
131,100 persons employed during June 2019. However the employment Unemployment in the Cairns Region now sits only marginally below the
trend still indicates an increase of 6,700 people in jobs during the course of Queensland State average, which stood at 6.0% in December 2019.
2019, an increase of 5.4%.
N.B. The ABS Labour Force figures are estimates derived from a sample survey of less than N.B. To be counted as ‘unemployed’ in the ABS Labour Force survey you need to not have a job
500 Cairns Region residents, and hence are subject to a potentially large margin of error. and be actively seeking work. People who do not have a job and are not actively seeking work
Neither the actual nor the trend estimates should be interpreted as precise values. are not counted as unemployed, they are regarded as ‘not in the labour force’.
CairnsWatch January 2020 3Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Telephone: 4057 0200
Cairns Qld 4870 Email:cairns@htw.com.au
PO Box 6843 www.htw.com.au
Cairns Qld 4870 www.cairnswatch.com.au
EMPLOYMENT
Cairns Region Job Ads
Monthly Average Jobs Advertised
1,200
Actual Trend
Herron Todd White does… Property Valuations
1,000
Herron Todd White Cairns has a wealth of experience in
providing valuation services across the tourism,
800
commercial, industrial, rural and residential property
sectors.
600
From residential units and townhouses to specialist
valuations, acquisitions and resumption, Herron Todd
400 White Cairns’ team of specialist staff provides valuations
across all property types.
200
0
Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19
Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19
Source: HTW Analysis of Employment Websites
The trend in the number of jobs being advertised on employment websites
for the Cairns and Far North region has steadily increased over the last four
months, reaching an all-time high in December 2019. The December 2019
trend in job ads also stands 4.0% above the level which prevailed in
December 2018.
CairnsWatch January 2020 4Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Telephone: 4057 0200
Cairns Qld 4870 Email:cairns@htw.com.au
PO Box 6843 www.htw.com.au
Cairns Qld 4870 www.cairnswatch.com.au
TOURISM
Cairns Airport Passenger Numbers
Monthly Passenger Arrivals + Departures (excl Transits)
450,000
Herron Todd White does…Tourism
does…Tourism Valuations
250,000 Buying or selling a tourist property?
On Domestic Flights
Herron Todd White has valuers specialising in all forms of
150,000 tourism related property – including pubs, roadhouses,
hostels and caravan parks, and the entire accommodation
spectrum from small motels and serviced apartments
90,000 through to large scale resorts.
On International Flights
50,000
30,000
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19
Source: Derived from Cairns Airport data
Passenger number trends at Cairns Airport have eased back during the
course of 2019 for passengers arriving/departing on domestic flights,
potentially due to a slowdown in the number of international visitors
accessing Cairns via domestic services from other Australian locations.
Meanwhile trend numbers have dropped more noticeably for passengers
arriving/departing on international flights, coinciding with the withdrawal of
Cathay Pacific services in October 2019. The latest figures show an overall
airport passenger trend reduction of 2.7% over the period from December
2018 to December 2019, resulting from a 2.1% trend passenger reduction
on domestic flights, and a 6.4% trend passenger reduction on international
flights.
CairnsWatch January 2020 5Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Telephone: 4057 0200
Cairns Qld 4870 Email:cairns@htw.com.au
PO Box 6843 www.htw.com.au
Cairns Qld 4870 www.cairnswatch.com.au
PROPERTY
Cairns Property Prices
Median Sale Price (Log Scale)
$450,000
Herron Todd White does… Tax Depreciation Schedules
Houses
$320,000 Do you have an up-to-date tax depreciation schedule?
You could be missing out on thousands of dollars each
Units year in allowable depreciation for your investment
$230,000 property.
Depreciation is an important part of maximising your
investment returns from an income generating property.
$165,000
Vacant Land Contact us on 4057 0200 for an obligation-free quote.
$120,000
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19
* All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement)
** Recent months are provisional and subject to revision
Source: HTW Analysis of RPData
Median house sale price trends appear to have firmed slightly during the
latter half of 2019, but have wavered for land and units in tandem with
volatile market composition. The latest trend median prices, for properties
sold in the month of December 2019, came in at $422,500 for houses,
$215,000 for units, and $214,500 for vacant land. Twelve month median
trend price movements, for the period from December 2018 to December
2019, stood at plus 2.1% for houses and minus 2.2% for units.
N.B. The median property price is the actual sale price of the middle-priced property from the
list of properties sold each month. Movements in median prices do not necessarily equate to
movements in individual property values.
CairnsWatch January 2020 6Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Telephone: 4057 0200
Cairns Qld 4870 Email:cairns@htw.com.au
PO Box 6843 www.htw.com.au
Cairns Qld 4870 www.cairnswatch.com.au
PROPERTY
Cairns Rental Vacancies Cairns Property Rents
Percentage Vacancy Median Rent ($ per week)
8% $480
Houses Units Total 4BR House
$420
6%
3BR House
'Balanced Market' Range $360
3BR Flat
4%
2BR House
$300
2BR Flat
2%
$240
1BR Flat
0% $180
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19
Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19
Quarter ended
Source: HTW Rentroll Survey Source: Queensland Residential Tenancies Authority
The Cairns rental market has changed little during the course of 2019, Consistently low rental vacancy rates have been placing mild upward
continuing to demonstrate tight verging on stressed rental market pressure on rents in year-on-year terms for the last six years. Over the
conditions. Our latest survey results show the trend rental vacancy rates for twelve months to December 2019 the Cairns weighted average median rent
December 2019 standing at 1.7% for houses, 1.9% for units and 1.7% has lifted from $415 to $425 per week for houses, and from $295 to $305
overall. Coupled with the very low level of new rental supply being created per week for units. The very low rental vacancy rates being observed in the
due to low levels of new housing construction and reduced levels of investor current market are likely to maintain mild upward pressure on rents in
housing activity, rental market conditions are bound to stay tight and/or coming quarters, but will not be able do so indefinitely for rental affordability
stressed for some time. reasons.
N.B. The median rent is the middle-priced rental from properties rented during the quarter.
Movements in median rents do not necessarily equate to movements in individual property
rental values.
CairnsWatch January 2020 7Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Telephone: 4057 0200
Cairns Qld 4870 Email:cairns@htw.com.au
PO Box 6843 www.htw.com.au
Cairns Qld 4870 www.cairnswatch.com.au
PROPERTY
Cairns Building Approvals
Number of New Dwellings Approved in Cairns Urban Area
400
Total
Houses Units
(Trend) Herron Todd White does…Rural
does…Rural Valuations
300
Selling the farm?
Herron Todd White has valuers specialising in agri-
business – from cane farms to cattle properties and
200 banana plantations.
100
0
Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19
Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19
Source: Derived from ABS data
Building approval figures have remained at consistently low levels during
the course of 2019, in tandem with low levels of new land sales and
housing construction. The November 2019 trend building approvals level
stood at stood at 42 new dwellings approved for construction, consisting
entirely of houses and no units. Current building approval levels are running
at only about 40% of their average for the last twenty years, highlighting the
still parlous state of the residential property market and the tough
competition new housing construction faces from prices in the established
housing market for both houses and units alike.
CairnsWatch January 2020 8Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Telephone: 4057 0200
Cairns Qld 4870 Email:cairns@htw.com.au
PO Box 6843 www.htw.com.au
Cairns Qld 4870 www.cairnswatch.com.au
PROPERTY
Special Topic: Cassowary Coast Rural Land Values
Number of Sales Median Sale Price ($ per Hectare)
120 $16,000
Number of Sales Median Price per Hectare (Right Axis)
(Left Axis) Actual Trend
Herron Todd White does… Socio-
Socio-Economic Research
90 $12,000 Herron Todd White Cairns carries out specialist project
consulting assignments in all areas of socio-economic
research, including demographic studies, statistical
surveys, market research, strategy planning, cost benefit
60 $8,000 studies, and socio-economic impact assessment.
Contact us today to discuss your requirements.
30 $4,000
0 $0
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Source: HTW Analysis of RPData
The rural property market in the Cassowary Coast region has shown strong
cyclicality, largely reflecting the fluctuating circumstances of the sugar cane
and banana growing industries. Though sale values have tended to increase
on the basis of moderate turnover levels since 2011, price growth has
flattened off over the last three years coinciding with tougher conditions in
the sugar cane industry.
Nevertheless, over the entire period from 1979 to 2019, median rural
property sale values in the Cassowary Coast region have increased at a long
term average trend rate of 3.9% per annum.
CairnsWatch January 2020 9Cairns Level 1, 95 Sheridan Street Telephone: 4057 0200
Cairns Qld 4870 Email:cairns@htw.com.au
PO Box 6843 www.htw.com.au
Cairns Qld 4870 www.cairnswatch.com.au
PROPERTY
National Property Clock
Albury Bathurst
Canberra Dubbo
Gippsland Sunshine Coast
Tamworth
Herron Todd White does… Townsville Market Information
Bendigo
NSW Central Coast Herron Todd White produces a free six-monthly publication
Peak of Wodonga
Market of Townsville Market Information entitled Townsville in
Approaching Peak Starting to
Focus. Like CairnsWatch, it is free of charge.
of Market Decline
For further enquiries or to subscribe, contact
Ballarat Burnie-Devonport
Echuca Emerald
Rising Declining
townsville@htw.com.au or call (07) 4724 2000.
Hervey Bay Hobart
Market Kalgoorlie
Karratha Launceston Market
Mildura Mount Gambier
Shepparton
Steady State/ Approaching
Ballina/Byron Bay Brisbane Start of Recovery Bottom of Market
Bundaberg Cairns
Coffs Harbour Geelong Bottom of
Gladstone Gold Coast Market Broome
Illawarra Lismore Geraldton
Mackay Melbourne South West WA
Newcastle Port Hedland
Sydney Townsville
Whitsunday
Adelaide Adelaide Hills Alice Springs
Barossa Valley Darwin Ipswich
NSW Southern Highlands, NSW Southern Tablelands
Perth Rockhampton Toowoomba
Entries coloured dark blue indicate positional change from our last CairnsWatch
Source: Residential Property Ratings for Houses Compiled by Herron Todd White, November 2019
Herron Todd White’s National Property Clock is prepared each month based
on the local market perceptions of its Australia-wide network of offices.
The lack of change in the Cairns market has meant that Cairns has been in
a ‘Steady State’ position for some time.
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